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The Great Hybrid Battery Debate

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Comments

  • wvgasguywvgasguy Member Posts: 1,405
    bobad says, "By 5 years, probably 50% of the cells will be shot."

    Ha!!!!

    bobad just got thrown off the midsize sedan comparison posts and told to take this up on this forum. You guys are going to enjoy arguing with him. You can look at the other forum to get an idea of his (non)logic
  • bobadbobad Member Posts: 1,587
    bobad just got thrown off the midsize sedan comparison posts and told to take this up on this forum. You guys are going to enjoy arguing with him. You can look at the other forum to get an idea of his (non)logic

    You just got thrown off the same forum for the same offense as me... talking hybrid battery life.

    If you want to talk logic, where is the proof that the batteries will last the life of the car? How do you know? Because Toyata says so? What IS "the life of the car?" 4 years? :D:D:D
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    If there were 37,000 Priuses sold in Japan before the first Prius was sold in the USA (which is true) then are those 37,000 Priuses in Japan suffering dead batteries?

    Those cars are 6+ years old, some coming up on 7 years old this December.

    I *think* we might have heard about it if that was happening, ya think?
  • wvgasguywvgasguy Member Posts: 1,405
    You just got thrown off the same forum for the same offense as me... talking hybrid battery life

    Sort of, actually I QUIT a while before that conversation ended as you were wearing me out.

    What IS "the life of the car?" 4 years?

    Again, my last post on this with you

    For me it's typically 18 months, but I plan on keeping this one 3 years.

    A "minimum" life should be 8 years / 100,000 miles as that what warranty comes with the hybrid system. In the smog states it's a 10 year / 150,000 mile warranty.
  • midnightcowboymidnightcowboy Member Posts: 1,978
    Interesting 40,000 gen 1 prius are still going strong in Japan. Can you please point to a reference article?

    In Japan a lot of engines are retired at 35,000 miles and resold in USA.

    Actually battery technology moves very slowly!

    There are still a lot of unknowns about battery life and what The vehicle dealer considers enough degradation to be considered a candidate for replacement.

    Caveat Emptor

    YBLMV, BL= battery Life

    MidCow
  • midnightcowboymidnightcowboy Member Posts: 1,978
    John1701A said:

    "And the Original model Prius had a production cost of about $37,000. So what the heck does that have to do with the third generation now available?"

    Interesting fact, could you provide the source?

    MidCow
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    hybridcenter.org

    http://www.hybridcenter.org/hybrid-timeline.html

    1997
    * Toyota launches world’s first mass-production hybrid vehicle, in Japan
    * 37,000 sold in Japan before U.S. introduction in 2000.

    If they have sold 37,000 as of the year 2000, don't you think they sold AT LEAST 3,000 more in the last six years? :shades:

    The Internet has made the world small enough that if those Prius batteries were "dying like flies" we would have heard about it from the Hybrid Naysayers.
  • bobadbobad Member Posts: 1,587
    Sorry, that wasn't meant to offend you. It's usually customary to double check sources and not rely solely on the manufacturer for reliability information. If you ask 10 manufacturers, all 10 will tell you their cars are the most reliable. At this time, there is surprisingly little independent reliability info on hybrid technology. As hybrids mature, I suspect lots of usable info will soon be forthcoming.
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    bobad says, "At this time, there is surprisingly little independent reliability info on hybrid technology."

    Which one is not independent:

    Consumers Union
    JD Powers
    MSN Autos
    AutoWeb
    AutoByTel

    All those people have the Prius reliability rated high.

    There are more than 500,000 Priuses roaming the world's roads right now. I'm PRETTY SURE that if they were unreliable, we would know about it.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Consumer Reports gave them high ratings for reliability while many folks were left stranded by the road needing to be towed to the dealers. There are still instances of the triangle of death rearing its ugly head.

    I have to agree the jury is still out. It is too bad we do not have a Japanese poster here to search the web for reports on the Prii sold in Japan. Though they are not a people to air their dirty laundry in public as we are.
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    Every model of car has left people stranded on the road.

    A random, repairable software problem (fixable) does not a "model unreliable" declaration make.

    Like I said - we don't need a "japanese poster" to know about the Japanese Priuses. If it was a problem, one of the many international newspapers with offices in Japan would have reported it to the world already.

    With 7+ years of hybrids, and only random and anecdotal reports of a few problems here and there, I don't think the jury is out at all.

    They have returned with a verdict of "Not Guilty Of Being Unreliable" on the Prius.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    It is hardly random anecdotal when they have to recall an entire model for upgrades. Not just software. They also changed some other things. Can you name a model that has had that many people with a car that died while traveling down the highway? Not anecdotal ones or twos. We are talking dozens documented with the NHTSA. It is too late to white wash the truth. They do seem to be better now than a year ago. They are still dying on occasion from fuel related problems.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    for allegedly shirking recalls for eight yearsThey have returned with a verdict of "Not Guilty Of Being Unreliable" on the Prius.

    Japan is just now going after Toyota for problems with their vehicles up to 1996. It may take a while to get them on the Prius.

    Updated: 9:53 a.m. PT July 21, 2006
    TOKYO - In a rare public scolding of Japan’s biggest company, the government reprimanded Toyota Friday and called for improved recall practices amid a criminal investigation into a 2004 accident.

    The widely reported recall investigation — coming at a time when Toyota recalls are ballooning — has been a major embarrassment for Toyota because of its solid reputation for quality.

    Earlier this month, police said they were sending papers to prosecutors on three Toyota officials in a criminal investigation on suspicion of professional negligence for allegedly shirking recalls for eight years.
    Police say they suspect the three Toyota officials, whose names have not been disclosed because they have not been charged, knew about the problems as far back as 1996 but took no action.

    The defects being investigated, a suspected faulty steering part, may have caused an August 2004 head-on crash in southwestern Japan that injured five people, they say.

    The 2004 recall affected more than a million vehicles sold in 180 nations, including the U.S. and Europe,and some problems had been reported from abroad, according to Toyota.

    This did include the Prius

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13972069/
  • midnightcowboymidnightcowboy Member Posts: 1,978
    Larsb,

    Thanks you cleared it up, as sometimes happens John1701A got his facts wrong. He said the production cost of each car in 1997 was $37,000 (see message #411), not that there were 37,000 cars manufactured in 1997.

    MidCow
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    When the first Prius landed in San Diego I went for two test drives. They were offered for $20k even. The dealer told me they cost Toyota $37k to build. They also offered an 8 year 100k mile bumper to bumper warranty. With all maintenance included. I thought it was a great deal. My wife thought it was ugly. So I did not buy it.
  • midnightcowboymidnightcowboy Member Posts: 1,978
    Old Wives tale no proof, just like ...

    A person insured his property from fire hazard with the insurance company.

    The property was burned up, so the person went to court an collected $15,000 from the insurance company.

    After which, the insurance company filed 24 counts of arson against the person for arson and then insurance fraud using the previous judgement as evidence.

    The insurance company won and the person had to pay $24,000 and was sentenced to 2 years in jail.

    The property - Cuban Cigars.

    So my point, if you show me documented proof that Toyota would sell a car for $20,000 that cost $37,000 to make then I will believe it. Every company and every store has loss leaders to attract sales, but I seriously doubt that Toyota would sell a car for $17,000 less than it costs. Again, show me the proof!

    And the Prius didn't land in San Diego in 1997 , but about 4 years later.

    Thanks,

    MidCow

    P.S. - I agree with your wife!
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    Let's see: 504,700 Priuses sold worldwide as of 4-30-2006:

    Sales of the Toyota Prius Hybrid Top 500,000 Worldwide
    Car and Driver, MI - Aug 4, 2006
    As of April 30, global sales of Toyota's Prius hybrid car reached a total of 504,700 units, according to a company news release...

    Losing $17,000 per car:

    504,700 times 17,000 = $8,579,900,000

    So Toyota has lost Eight Billion Five Hundred Seventy Nine Million Nine Hundred Thousand Dollars on the Prius....

    Man, those guys are IDIOTS !!! :D

    Secondly, Gary, honestly: Search your memory banks as to the name of that car dealer who told you that. I want to call him. Really. I want to ask him where he heard that brilliant piece of knowledge. Really. Get me his name. I'm serious.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Secondly, Gary, honestly: Search your memory banks as to the name of that car dealer who told you that. I want to call him. Really.

    No problem. Toyota of El Cajon. If what you posted some years ago is true. Toyota was able to cut costs by 50%. That would mean they are building them for $18,500. A handsome profit now that they average over $27k.

    http://www.toyotaofelcajon.com/

    PS
    They are trying to unload 5 FJ Cruisers last time I drove by.
    PSPS
    I doubt the same saleman is there. That was 5 years ago. I have not seen the same saleman twice at that dealership. He did say the manager told him.
  • midnightcowboymidnightcowboy Member Posts: 1,978
    Again no proof just rumors and ineundoes $37,000 cut in half to $18,500 ROFLMAO

    And yes, I also believe everything a saleman/saleslady tells me that he said his/her manager told him ;)

    But have you noticed that as Toyota has passed Ford in sales their quality has dropped ?

    Lots of Laughs,

    MidCow
  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Member Posts: 458
    Midcow,
    why do you find this so difficult to believe.
    Toyota has always been about long-term profits - not short term.
    To them, market share means much more than quarter end profits.
    When the Lexus division was launched in late 1989, they sold the LS400's at 10000 below cost.
    Do you want proof of that as well - since that's pretty much common knowledge for automotive buffs like us.
  • wvgasguywvgasguy Member Posts: 1,405
    Midcow, why do you find this so difficult to believe.
    I don't always agree with MidCow, but I'll have to say there is no way Toyota would eat $8 Billion. If it did the stock holders would hang a CEO and a few others I would think.

    If they were willing to throw away that much then I'm guessing they wouldn't hesitate at spending the extra $200 or $300 per vehicle to make all their cars clean (I'm no expert on that but I've seen postings indicating the technology is possible, just not cost effective for most consumers desires.
  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Member Posts: 458
    don't always agree with MidCow, but I'll have to say there is no way Toyota would eat $8 Billion. If it did the stock holders would hang a CEO and a few others I would think.


    The second part to the LS story is that once Toyota established the quality, it increased the price - and reduced production cost by increasing volume. The car became profitable within a few short years.

    I believe the Prius is just about at break-even - or making a slight profit now. Of course they still have to recover the sunk cost.
  • imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,151
    People have forgotten the problems with the Japanese dumping cars (and other products) in the 80s? They did it for the purpose of keeping their manufacturing running and to gain market share.

    Not selling Prius for the true value based on developement costs would not be out of the ordinary.

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

  • stevedebistevedebi Member Posts: 4,098
    "Losing $17,000 per car:

    504,700 times 17,000 = $8,579,900,000 "

    Nice try, but it was only the Gen 1 that they lost money on. What did they sell of the Gen 1? About 50K over three years?

    I suspect the 37K figure included some R & D costs.
  • terry92270terry92270 Member Posts: 1,247
    On a par with automobile makers are the drug companies. HUGE R&D expenses.

    They don't wait to recoup costs, they build it into the unit price.
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    http://avt.inel.gov/hev.html

    This is a very interesting page filled with PDFs which indicate good performance in regard to HEV battery life.

    See this one in particular:

    http://avt.inel.gov/pdf/karner.pdf

    They say a battery does not lose it's efficiency after 160,000 miles at least.

    They also only had one battery failure, in a Honda Insight at 72,000 miles, in more tha 1.35 million miles driven in hybrids.

    That battery was replaced under warranty by Honda.
  • bobadbobad Member Posts: 1,587
    Miles tell me nothing. They have very little to do with battery life.

    One could own a hybrid car for 10 years and have only 50,000 miles on the batteries. At the other extreme, one could own the car for 1 year and have 30,000 miles on it. A 2 year old battery pack with 50,000 miles on it will always be in better condition than a 4 year old battery with only 20,000 miles on it.

    Time(years) and high temperature are the worst enemy of batteries. Cycles (a rough equivalent to miles) is a distant 3rd.

    If I buy a hybrid, I want a warranty given in years, not meaningless mileage.
  • midnightcowboymidnightcowboy Member Posts: 1,978
    The new battery warranty reads " ... for better or for worse until until death do us part. "

    "... will always be ..." Absolutes are never true there are always exceptions!

    Now the big question? Assume you supposition is correct that time(years) and temparature are the worst enemies of a battery. Then if you only want a warranty in years, then tempreature is ignore. i think maybe we nnned a black-box recorder like airline have to measure battery life expectancy and state-of-helath. Becuase alos, a big factor is the chrage discharge frenquency and depth. You can sometimes ( not always) have a battery that has a short chronological life , but has a very high ste-of-charge life. For example a person lives in a very hilly area and drives agressive and ddepp discharges every hill climb.

    What is the funniest stement is that no battery has every hybrid failed except by abise or accident. Based on what? There have been several insight owners who battery has failed to the point of not being useful, but not enoguh to warrnt replacement by Honda. And if a car manufacturer tells you they have had no failures. Based on what ?

    Poem lyrics of Stopping By Woods On A Snowy Evening by Robert Frost.
    Whose woods these are I think I know.
    His house is in the village, though;
    He will not see me stopping here
    To watch his woods fill up with snow.

    My little horse must think it's queer
    To stop without a farmhouse near
    Between the woods and frozen lake
    The darkest evening of the year.

    He gives his harness bells a shake
    To ask if there's some mistake.
    The only other sound's the sweep
    Of easy wind and downy flake.

    The woods are lovely, dark, and deep,
    But I have promises to keep,
    And miles to go before I sleep,
    And miles to go before I sleep.

    MidCow
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Toyota's website and its printed material clearly state that after finishing it's bench testing at 180,000 miles with no deterioration in the battery performance, Toyota can state that the batteries are expected to last the life of the vehicle.

    That would be 10-15 years and/or 200,000 to 300,000 miles.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Actually the figure I heard in 2000 when I sold the first one here in Hampton Roads was about $35000 cost. Toyota gave us this figure.

    I'm certain that it was heavily loading the cost of development over a very small volume of sales that made the cost so 'high'. As you noted no company would do this rationally on an ongoing basis. If however it had already invested in the development and tooling it would have to account for these costs in some way. That first year I believe that about 5000 units were sold. Four years later the volume had grown to ~105,000 units in 2005.

    Anyone with any accounting background understands how important the denominator is in the cost equation. In any cost equation on any product there are:
    Fixed costs
    Variable costs
    Development costs
    Administrative costs
    Selling expenses

    When a brand new product such as the Prius comes to market with a relatively miniscule volume, say 10,000 units worldwide, the developmental costs are a huge part of the cost. Say for an SWAG estimate that Toyota invested $500 Million in developing the hybrid technology ( prolly way to high ), early on if they hoped to sell 50,000 units the developmenal cost would be $10,000 per unit. Now however with 500,000 units on the road worldwide the developmental fraction of the cost now has been reduced to $1000 per unit!!!

    But back in 1999 and 2000 did Toyota know that it would have 500,000 units on the road in 4 years? From direct experience - NO! - I'm nearly certain that they were shocked how quickly the concept was accepted.

    Next year with 250,000 units expected to be sold in the US market alone annually the developmental fraction of the equation will be nominal or zero.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    If I buy a hybrid, I want a warranty given in years, not meaningless mileage.

    Well, 8 years is the shortest hybrid battery warranty in the US for most states whereas 10 years is the warranty in the CARB states.
  • bobadbobad Member Posts: 1,587
    A 10 year unconditional guarantee is good enough.

    Now that the batteries are guaranteed long enough, the prices will have to come down. I don't see any re sale value on a 10 year old hybrid that the battery is out of warranty.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Yep that's exactly what it is in the CARB states. 8 years elsewhere.

    The resale on a 10 y.o. hybrid is likely to be the same as the resale on a 10 y.o. non-hybrid, about $1000-$2000. Maybe if it's in good shape and runs and the miles are not ridiculously high. At 15 yrs they both are worth the same...Nothing.
  • midnightcowboymidnightcowboy Member Posts: 1,978
    The unconditional guarantee isn't exactly that. Yoou can quote all you want about coporate information as kdhspyder has but you then have to look at the real environment. There have been failures of the batteries whereby the car is basically unuseable, howver the Car Vendoor has stated thtat the battery has not failed to the level that it warrants replacement. So what do you do? The car vendor says the battery is good becuase it hasn't fallen to its replacement threshold measurement but the consumer has a sup-par car.

    Failure is in the eye of the beholder.

    Think about rechargeable batteries; I am sure you have bought them. They state they can be recharged up to 1,000 times. But after awhile well, well below a thousand charges the battery losses its charge very,very quickly. Does it still work? Yes Has it failed? No is it really useable? NO.

    Honda Insights have had failures. Toyotas Hybrid owners have reported failures; but Toyota says there have been no failures. Who is right? Maybe it is the legal defintion of failure.

    Batterires fail. If anyone thinks a battery will last 8 years or 10 years then good luck. Just remember the words "Caveat Emptor".

    MidCow
  • bobadbobad Member Posts: 1,587
    Well stated.

    Batteries start ramping down the day they are manufacured. An NiMH cell loses capacity over time whether it is used or not. After 5 years in 100 Deg. heat, it is bound to lose a signiifcant percentage of its capacity. Individual cells can vary too. Some cells in the pack die or lose significant capacity sooner than others. The more cells in a pack, the higher likelihood of individual cell failure. I would like to see some real world tests on 10 year old packs, but that's almost impossible because there are probably none actually that old yet.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Well since we are reaching the 5,6 and 7 year mark on the the Prius' your theory will begin to be proven or disproven, although it's unlikely than anyone has driven their vehicles in the Sahara for the last 5 years.

    There are still no indications that there is any deterioration in performance in the early Prius ( there weren't many on the road initially though ).
  • bobadbobad Member Posts: 1,587
    There are still no indications that there is any deterioration in performance in the early Prius

    How do you know? It takes cell capacity tests to prove that. The absence of widespread complaints prove nothing.

    One doesn't have to drive in the Sahara for underhood temperatures to reach 120F. Not only that, but NiMH cells are notorious for generating internal heat from normal charge and discharge.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    NiMH cells are notorious for generating internal heat from normal charge and discharge.

    There are several documented cases of the Prius traction battery catching on fire. One was while the car was parked in the dealers lot waiting to be worked on. If that does not constitute a battery failure, what does? At least one poster I recall was battling with Honda over battery deterioration. They would not replace it even though it was at about 80% of original capacity. Are we going to need an independant company come in and arbitrate when a battery is not working at full capacity? As it deteriorates it will affect your mileage.

    One question. Does the HSD system charge to 80% of original capacity or the capacity at any given point in time?
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    The maximum SoC I've seen over 27K miles is about 80-90% and about 30% on the low side ( usually early in the morning or after a couple days of non-use).

    With nearly 400,000 of these on the road just here in the US since 2001 if there were any significant numbers of battery failure everyone would know about it. The Press would be all over these reports like ...... you get the point.

    As larsb noted previously the Honda failures on the Insight were due primarily to the fact that the vehicle was a manual transmission. Since going to an auto there are no additonal reports.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    How do you know? It takes cell capacity tests to prove that. The absence of widespread complaints prove nothing

    1. There are no reports here, elsewhere or in the Press of any deterioration or loss of efficiency.

    2. Go to GreenHybrid and look at the data generated by the GenI Prius', some of which are 4 and 5 yrs old. There is no deterioration in the fuel economy of these vehicles.

    If the batteries were deteriorating significantly then the ICE's would be running more thus resulting in poorer fuel economy. It's not happening.
  • phinneas519phinneas519 Member Posts: 113
    I don't own a hybrid but I've been following the information and debates. I'm curious if a battery would lose its efficacy during the later part of its life? That, of course, would affect mileage as well. It's something I've been wondering.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    That's the new skepticism being voiced here. At first it was the batteries will certainaly die shortly as do most every battery and they will cost thousands to replace - but they are not dying or having to be replaced after 4-5 years.

    Now the question, which is certainly valid, is 'Will age ( over 5 yrs ) make the batteries perform with less efficiency thereby not assisting as much as when they were new. The result being less superior fuel economy.'

    I think that the answer from we the driving public is 'We don't know yet.' According to Toyota's bench testing their indications are that there is no deterioration in performance ( fuel economy ) for well over 150,000 miles which is normally 8 - 12 yrs of driving for most.

    Based on that I for one am confident enough to expect to drive my Prius upwards of 250,000 miles. While everyone has an opinion on the matter the results are being reported daily on GreenHybrid's mileage database.
  • bobadbobad Member Posts: 1,587
    Based on that I for one am confident enough to expect to drive my Prius upwards of 250,000 miles.

    Remember, age and operating environment are the most important factors in battery chemistry. Mileage doesn't have much to do with battery life. I guess old habits are hard to break. It seems we tend to think of batteries in terms of engines or tires, where mileage is the key factor.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    Age never is a consideration for me since I put about 40,000 miles annually on the vehicles I drive so as long as the batteries stay efficient for 6+ years or so I feel I got the use I expected.
  • bobadbobad Member Posts: 1,587
    In your case, miles work, because you know how many mles a year you drive. However, others drive from 5000mi per year to 50,000mi per year, so battery life given in miles can be off by a factor of 10.

    I'm be having a birthday soon. I'll be 800,000 miles old. :)
  • midnightcowboymidnightcowboy Member Posts: 1,978
    Actually the reason mileage comes into play is that it directly correlates with age. Notice I said correlates, not that iti s a direct function because whiel one individual might only drive 5,000 miles a year another might drive as much as 30,000 miles a year. So if you look at a car with 60,000 miles it might be as old as 12 years or as young as 2 years. But still if you have the option to buy a 2 year old car with 100,000 miles or a 3 year old car with 21,000 which car would you choose assume cost was relatively priced ?

    I am willing to be most would take the 3 year old car.

    Cheers,

    MidCow
  • bobadbobad Member Posts: 1,587
    Of course the battery is not the only deciding factor on a used hybrid.

    Personally, all other things being equal, I would rather a 2 YO hybrid with 100K miles than a 3 YO hybrid with 21K miles. But other things are rarely equal on used cars with a 2 year age difference. Assuming a Toyota/Honda/Hyundai engine that commonly gets 250K trouble-free miles, 100K is not a lot for me, as I only drive 5K per year.

    Don't forget, you can run up 100K miles in a lab in 6 months or less. In 6 months, the battery pack is almost like new, regardless of the mileage. It's very hard to accelerate time when testing batteries.

    I was very skeptical of hybrid battery packs at first, but I'm only skeptical now. Perhaps NiMH chemistry has been greatly improved since my testing days.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Ad placed to sell a Prius. Looks like there are batteries getting replaced.

    Approx. 94,000 miles. One owner. Southern California car – no rust. Full maintenance records. All maintenance by Toyota. Original owner’s manual.-- Carpool lane access stickers included! Use California carpool lanes when driving alone! If you drive a lot in Southern California, this is an unbelievable bonus. High voltage batteries replaced at 88,000 miles. $4,000 value. Hybrid drive still under 100,000 mi warranty. Silver metallic exterior paint.
  • bobadbobad Member Posts: 1,587
    I'm not at all surprised.
  • imidazol97imidazol97 Member Posts: 27,151
    It's got a whole 6000 miles before the warranty expires.

    So much for the perfect battery systems on hybrids.

    2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,

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