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The Great Hybrid Battery Debate
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1. Hybrid cabs are in use in a LOT of cities. The list includes at minimum Boston, San Fran, Chicago, New York, San Antonio, and as you mentioned Victoria BC.
2. No one is complaining (either cab riders or cab drivers or cab companies) that hybrid cabs are too small.
Chill Out
This battery seems to Rock
The odometer of a low emission hybrid electric test vehicle today reached 100,000 miles as the car circled a track in the UK using the power of an advanced CSIRO battery system.
The UltraBattery combines a supercapacitor and a lead acid battery in a single unit, creating a hybrid car battery that lasts longer, costs less and is more powerful than current technologies used in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs).
“The UltraBattery is a leap forward for low emission transport and uptake of HEVs,” said David Lamb, who leads low emissions transport research with the Energy Transformed National Research Flagship.
“Previous tests show the UltraBattery has a life cycle that is at least four times longer and produces 50 per cent more power than conventional battery systems. It’s also about 70 per cent cheaper than the batteries currently used in HEVs,” he said.
By marrying a conventional fuel-powered engine with a battery to drive an electric motor, HEVs achieve the dual environmental benefit of reducing both greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption.
The UltraBattery also has the ability to provide and absorb charge rapidly during vehicle acceleration and braking, making it particularly suitable for HEVs, which rely on the electric motor to meet peak power needs during acceleration and can recapture energy normally wasted through braking to recharge the battery.
Over the past 12 months, a team of drivers has put the UltraBattery to the test at the Millbrook Proving Ground in the United Kingdom, one of Europe’s leading locations for the development and demonstration of land vehicles.
“Passing the 100,000 miles mark is strong evidence of the UltraBattery’s capabilities,” Mr Lamb said.
“CSIRO’s ongoing research will further improve the technology’s capabilities, making it lighter, more efficient and capable of setting new performance standards for HEVs.”
The UltraBattery test program for HEV applications is the result of an international collaboration. The battery system was developed by CSIRO in Australia, built by the Furukawa Battery Company of Japan and tested in the United Kingdom through the American-based Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium.
UltraBattery technology also has applications for renewable energy storage from wind and solar. CSIRO is part of a technology start-up that will develop and commercialise battery-based storage solutions for these energy sources.
Lead-acid batteries will improve, like all batteries. You can't escape their fundamental chemical limitations. They don't now or ever will have the potential that Li-ion batteries have in terms of energy density.
Your posts imply that you have some unique insight into this matter that escapes all the major auto manufacturers. I suspect that you have a laptop that remains plugged in even when you're away from the house, like most people. Maybe I'm wrong but if that is the case aren't you afraid of this battery burning your house down? Maybe you consider the possibility so remote that the risk is acceptable, again, like most people.
Just recently Renault/Nissan announced plans to introduce an EV around 2010, which uses a Li-ion battery pack. Maybe they should be consulting with you before they squander too much money on this dead-end endeavour.
With all that said I do think that lead-acid batteries have a future, albeit limited, in terms of low cost EVs. And incorporating ultra-capacitors will allow them to maximize their efficiency and utility. So I view this particular advance, if credible, as a good thing.
Transitioning to EVs will be a long term process. If in 10 years 5% of the vehicles on the road are EVs I'd consider that a big success.
I do leave a laptop plugged in from time to time. And my latest is Li-Ion. I guess I am depending on the charger technology too much. I have never felt the battery get warm which is a sign of overcharging on any battery. To me the killer for Li-Ion is price even more than fire hazard.
I think we are both hoping for the same thing. That is a break through to a truly usable energy storage system that is cost effective. The older I get the less likely I will see EVs as mainstream transportation. I may be disappointed but not distraught.
So in 2004 were people talking about EVs powered by Li-ion batteries by 2006-2007? I sure don't remember this. In fact if you asked the average person back then what the chances of a major automanufacturer producing an EV or PHEV by 2010 their answer would probably be there is almost zero chance and what's a PHEV? Ask the same question now and the answer would be very different. So if anything the timeline for EVs and PHEVs has accelerated, it's not something that's always been 2-3 years in the future. My guess is there will be a limited number of EVs, PHEVs by 2010 but by 2011 the availability will increase substantially.
Toyota's Li-ion batteries
Actually they were saying they would be available earlier than that. The conversions started shortly after the Prius II came on the market.
Turning the Prius into a Plug-in Hybrid
14 December 2004
The California Cars Initiative (CalCars), a non-profit startup dedicated to jump-starting the market for plug-in hybrids (PHEV), is building a prototype Prius (the Prius+) capable of functioning as a plug-in hybrid and running in full EV (electric vehicle) mode for longer distances than possible with the original Toyota equipment.
The CalCars team is adding a different battery pack and grid-charging capabilities. The group has started with a prototype using lead-acid batteries that delivers less than 10 miles of EV-only range at low speeds. They hope to upgrade to a custom-built NiMH pack for an expected range of some 20 miles. CalCars would like to build a second prototype using a Li-Ion battery and hope for a 30+ mile range.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2004/12/turning_the_pri.html
PS
I was looking for an EV or Diesel small PU when the Prius came out in 2000.
Will these vehicles be affordable for the masses? Maybe not at first but that's irrelevant since the production capacity might not even be enough to satisfy the early adopters who aren't all that sensitive to price. Hopefully by the time this group has been saturated prices will have come down. If the first Chevy Volts sold for $25k the buyer would probably just turn around and sell it on ebay for $35k. So there really isn't much point in this vehicle being affordable when it first comes out.
I believe that there are two reasons.
1) The technology is not there yet, whether Li-ion or NiMH. One is unproven and the other is somewhat limited in capability.
2) How big is the market really for this technology and who will be the buyers?
Toyota is at least as good a Marketing company as it is an auto-building company. I believe that they are studying how to market this. Consider:...
Nobody living in a city who parks on the street will get any benefit from PHEVs. These owners won't be able to run a wire from two blocks down the street to their building and up 47 floors.
If you are taking a long trip, say from CA to FL then only the first few miles have any benefit the rest are all on the 'base' technology.
There is no infrastructure - yet - to recharge except at your home.
How much extra will a 'double battery' or new Li-ion pack add to the current price of say a Prius?
How much will this relatively small segment of buyers be willing to pay for the technology upgrade?
Can the Li-ions be warranted for 10 yrs / 150,000 mi? Who knows.
Lots of marketing decisions not to mention the technical hurdles to overcome.
If you are taking a long trip, say from CA to FL then only the first few miles have any benefit the rest are all on the 'base' technology.
I think you've pretty much covered the typical motorist and his typical drive with those two examples.
I was going by all the hype from Toyota of a 100 MPG Prius. Maybe it is not a PHEV. It will be interesting to see them get more than double the current mileage without charging them up first. This was projected by Toyota for 2009 MY back in 2006. That means they should be in showrooms in the next few months. see article:
http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=109981
PS
I thought people living in apartments in the city were supposed to ride the bus.
That link from Edmunds was a restatement of an off the wall article by some writer in Europe with no connection to Toyota at all.
All the hype you read was supposition by various 'experts' and pundits, primarily in Europe, on what the next one might be. Officially it's not even due out this year. Literally we don't have a single word on it.
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Hybrid Battery
Despite eBay's booming battery bazaar, Toyota, Honda and Ford all say hybrid battery failures are extremely rare. Out of more than 100,000 Honda hybrids on the road, the automaker says fewer than 200 have had a battery fail after the warranty expired. Honda, like Toyota and Ford, covers the cost of battery replacement for the first 100,000 miles in most states and 150,000 miles in California and a few other states with tough green car laws.
Toyota says its out-of-warranty battery replacement rate is 0.003 percent on the second generation Prius that debuted in the 2004 model year. That equals about one out of 40,000 Priuses sold, says Toyota spokesman John Hanson. That's a vast improvement over the first generation Prius, which had about 1 percent of the batteries fail after the warranty expired. Hanson says today's Prius batteries are designed to last "the life of the car," which Toyota defines as 180,000 miles. (Toyota and Panasonic announced Friday that they will build a new $200 million factory to produce more hybrid batteries to meet the automaker's goal of selling 1 million gas-electric cars a year.)
For those unlucky few who have to replace their own batteries, the cost is coming down. On June 1 Honda is slashing the cost of its batteries from $3,400 (excluding installation) to as low as $1,968 on an Insight or as high as $2,440 on an Accord hybrid. Toyota also plans to substantially cut battery prices, which now stand at $3,000 (excluding installation), down from $5,500 on the original Prius. Both automakers attribute the price cuts to improved technology and lower production costs. But some analysts think Toyota and Honda are really trying to get ahead of consumer concerns about battery replacement. "PR is a very important factor in the hybrid market," says J.D. Power's Omotoso. "Honda and Toyota have the oldest hybrids on the road. And when a hybrid gets to be that old, you have to factor battery replacement costs into your purchase decision."
Used Prius for sale, BYOB (bring your own battery) :shades:
It is good that Toyota and Honda are fessing up to the dead batteries after warranty. I would still like to know how many they have replaced while under warranty.
"What's ANY car worth that has 180K - 225K miles on the ticker?"
I know what the answer is, I see it every week. It's worth less than $300. No moron is going to put a $2000 or $3000 or $4000 battery or a tranny or any other major repair like that into a vehicle that's worth only $300.
This discussion always deteriorates into the absurd. If the hybrid battery only goes 327,459 miles....How many angels can fit on the head of a pin? The batteries don't break down except in the nightmares of the 'flat worlders'. The rest of us just drive them til we want to get rid of the vehicle. That's reality.
I'm not the one that posted the reality that Toyota and Honda had both SOLD replacement batteries to hybrid customers that were not covered by warranty. That means they felt it was worth the money to go a little further with their hybrid. We have had Insight owners complain of deteriorated batteries that Honda refused to change under warranty. If you are not part of the 1% of the Prius owners that have drawn the bad battery, you are one of the lucky 99%. To you a vehicle is worn out at 150K miles. To me that would never happen. I am close to 95k miles on our 19 year old Lexus. If we had to replace a battery we would be unhappy with Lexus. It is still running good. I doubt any of the hybrids will still have all their original power train including battery after 19 years. Almost 5 years now on the current Prius. The first one was a gimme and part of the R&D.
I don't know of any Honda refusals of warranty battery replacements. If it was under warranty, Honda was LEGALLY REQUIRED to replace it, if replacement was the technical remedy.
And there is no where near 1% of the Prius owners with a "bad battery." It's no where near 10,000 Priuses with battery problems. That would have been trumpeted from the highest buildings/mountains by all of 'Yota's competitors if it was that frequent.
And you yourself have mentioned the multiple thousands of dollars you have spent keeping that Lexus of yours running. What would have been the difference if the thousands had been spent on a new battery or on whatever you really did spend it on? Nothing, that's what !! No DIFFERENCE AT ALL!!
Thanks for bringing out the point that a replacement battery on a hybrid is just another maintenance cost, like replacing the tranny.
And like others have said - a battery losing charge capability does not DISABLE a Prius - it just means the hybrid drivetrain contributes less to the propulsion, and the car will get worse gas mileage.
I can't wait until a few more years pass and I get to tell/show you how wrong you have been about hybrids and longevity. Already been 10, almost 11 years now, and we are not hearing about droves of Priuses sitting dead in junkyards, are we?
NOPE, and we never will.
Well there were two Insight owners at least that posted their Insights were losing ooomph, indicating a deteriorating battery. The Honda dealers in both cases would not replace them because they had not failed to a certain point. Whatever that may be.
And there is no where near 1% of the Prius owners with a "bad battery."
You posted that statistic NOT me.
As far as the cost of maintaining our Lexus in top condition. That was purely a dealer over charging for insignificant repairs in many cases. Before my wife and I were married. When they tried that crap with me I found a great independent shop. I believe total maintenance over the 19 years is about $18k. Several $1000 routine checkups and oil changes. The Lexus dealer she bought the car from does not treat customers fairly. The car's engine and transmission is all original. The only major parts were suspension related.
I stand with my statement. I do not believe ANY hybrid battery will last 19 years. For those of us that do our part to conserve by keeping a car a long time the hybrids are probably not a good option. That being the reason I prefer diesel. The simpler the better. I have a line on a 20 year old diesel Land Cruiser in Canada. That is legal you know.
PS
If you want to count the 9 year old Prius. We can bring up multiple problems they have encountered including MANY battery failures.
Still, hybrids don't hold their value as well as their gasoline-powered siblings, batteries aside. For example, a three-year-old Honda Civic is worth about $12,000, retaining about 60 percent of its original sticker price of $20,000, according to Blair. But a hybrid Honda Civic holds only 58 percent of its original sticker price after three years, giving it a used price of $13,630, down from a new price of $23,500. "The new car buyer is more into bells and whistles, while used car buyers are all about value," says Blair. "If a hybrid is near the end of its warranty, what could creep into the mind of the used car buyer is, 'I still have a doubt about the battery, and it's just one more big thing that could go wrong.'"
GM battery on the leaky side?
With gasoline at $4 a gallon and the Toyota Prius flying out dealership doors, General Motors' mild hybrid vehicles are stuck in neutral because of battery-pack failures.
GM had to use 9,000 battery packs to replace leaking ones it recalled, a company spokesman says. GM diverted those batteries from new hybrids for sale this year.
GM planned to sell about 27,000 mild hybrid vehicles this year, possibly more given the sharp rise in gasoline prices. But insiders say GM will fall far short of that goal because of problems with its Michigan-based battery maker, Cobasys, a joint venture of Chevron Technology Ventures and Energy Conversion Devices.
GM discovered an internal leak in the nickel-metal hydride batteries that Cobasys made for GM's 2007 model hybrids. The leak caused the hybrid powertrain to shut down. The vehicles could still be driven, but not with the hybrid system.
The vehicles affected were the 2007 Saturn Vue Green Line and Saturn Aura Green Line hybrids. A GM spokesman says the company recalled about 9,000 vehicles to replace battery packs. That slowed the launch of the 2008 Saturn hybrids and the new Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid.
Custom-built batteries
Cobasys' batteries are specifically designed for GM's mild hybrid system. That means GM cannot switch suppliers until it brings out the next generation of mild hybrids in 2010, a source familiar with GM hybrid engineering said.
GM initiated the recall in late December when it began receiving reports of battery failures. Cobasys halted production for at least a month while it fixed the problem and revalidated the batteries, a GM source familiar with the mild hybrid program said.
"I don't know how many hybrids we could have sold, but we would have had at least 9,000 more batteries for the pipeline," GM spokesman Tom Wilkinson said. "It's not an insignificant number, but it's also part of what happens with a brand-new technology."
Repeated calls and e-mails to Cobasys were unreturned. But a person who answered the phone at the company's Springboro, Ohio, plant said production had resumed. And the GM source said the automaker is now getting the batteries it ordered.
Toyota says its out-of-warranty battery replacement rate is 0.003 percent on the second generation Prius that debuted in the 2004 model year.
And of those 2nd gen Prii sold how many batteries are out of warranty. That is a typical Toyota play on words. I would be surprised if 5% of the Prius sold are past 100,000 miles, the normal warranty. None have reached the 8-10 year. The oldest gen 2 Prius is not 5 years old yet. If Toyota wanted to be honest with their customers they would say how many batteries they have repaired or replaced in or out of warranty. They are too slick to do that. It would cause a panic in the hybrid market.
Again, it was stated in your link with half truths about hybrid batteries. I can attest to the fact that a GMC hybrid PU had very good resale. I only lost about $3000 owning it for 2 years. Not great in my book but I did get rid of it before anything quit working.
Some people buy Priuses for business travel and put 35K miles on it a year. Someone who bought one outside a CARB state could be out of warranty in 3 years easy.
And your definition of "being honest with it's customers" flies in the face of the reality of marketing. As a manufacturer, you don't EVER intentionally point out things you have done wrong or problems that your vehicles have had. From a marketing standpoint, that's just a Big Ole DUH.
And can you point out a "half-truth" in that article for me? I missed them I guess......
76,000+ miles in 30 mo's and running strong here.
Resales? Real life situation. With the Prius being sold out across the country again, for the 4 time out of the 6 yrs it's been out, two people this week asked me if I wanted to sell them my 2005 with 76000 miles ( but then what would I drive 150 mi / day? ). At $18000 they said no...but at $16000 they both were interested in the 3 y.o. standard model with 5 yrs of mileage in it.
Only pointing out the one in every hundred batteries replaced on out of warranty Prius. How many were out of warranty? Those figures are all so easily twisted to look good. Unless we know how many of the batteries have been replaced total we know very little about the reliability of the batteries. How many after 5000 miles or 30k miles. Like you say it would be crazy for Toyota to be honest about failures until they are forced to by a recall.
Not the average driver. If the 15k mile average carries over to the Prius, most owners are not close to being out of warranty on the battery. The oldest 2nd gen Prius is just past 4 years and 8 months. If I remember correctly they were in very short supply for the first couple years. So most of the Prius on the road today are under 2 years and 30K miles.
I'd have to say, and so would YOU, since you frequent these forums, that if there were a lot of them being replaced with that mileage, WE WOULD KNOW ABOUT IT !!
The owners would be posting that in the forums, reporting it to news agencies, and to NTHSA on their complaint website. I'm going right now to look at complaints about battery replacements by owners and I will post again when I have data.
Also looking at the Prius area in this forum - none so far, other than one lady who says 'Yota told her she "jump started it wrong" and made her pay $4800 for a replacement. I doubt we have the whole story on that one.
I am assuming there were no failed batteries on NHTSA at any mileage from your post. Those were just numbers. Though from what I have read on the ODI site. Most of the complaints are when they did not get satisfaction from the dealer and or manufacturer. An owner would have no reason to complain if he was experiencing trouble with his hybrid and went in and the dealer fixed the problem. How would they know if a battery was replaced? Unless they reset the computer and sent them on their way, as so often happens. We shall see how well the Hybrid batteries age as time goes by.........
Your post #599 raises some concern. I too am not impressed with high mileage cars. It says much for the electrical and mechanical components and the fact that the car is well put together. It really says nothing about the state of the internal battery chemistry in those cars.
The Prius population is indeed top heavy towards the younger vehicles now that you've pointed it out. Weren't they offering incentives in May of 2007 just to get them off the lots after the tax credits were no longer available ?
But age is not the only enemy of batteries. Outside parking in below freezing temperatures (due to the Peukert effect) reduces chemical activity of all batteries.
In all cases the Prius is only marginally effected. Battery degradation is more serious for the mild hybrids, like the Honda Civic Hybrid, where the vehicle gradually becomes hybrid in name only, as some owners have found. Of course the Civic scores well because of its smaller 1.3L engine. With regen providing only 2% advantage in City driving, mild hybrids rely solely on attempts to load level the engine output with the electric motor assist.. Although how a 15kw motor can load level a 240Hp V6 beats me and I wasn't surprised when the Honda Accord Hybrid was pulled after just two model years. But I digress.
The thing is that major degradation is one thing that could slip under the door for many people who weren't monitoring too closely. I have written in the past that Toyota's system would still give most of the benefits of hybridisation without a battery. As they are built today however a weak battery would still be acceptable until the Check Engine Light comes on.
With only a small population of cars at 8 years old, I have to agree with Gary. It may be too soon to say that this isn't going to be a problem. What we have a handle on right now are infant mortality problems with this battery which are pretty much non existent. GM has a 9,000 unit recall already on their Cobasys units by comparison.
And yes I support that we will need a larger population of older models before we can say for sure that battery aging by the calendar (rather than cycling) is not going to be a problem.
The Prius battery has been repriced down to $2000 with $1000 installation fee, if this could fall further the problem (in the light of $5 gas) could go away. Finally it is not beyond the realm of possibility that an aftermarket upconverter could be designed and fitted, at a lower price, to put 900W on to the high voltage bus from the existing lead acid - to start the engine and for very limited mobility under electric drive as per my 'virtual battery' suggestion elsewhere on Edmunds.
T2
So I imagine the battery debate will go on for some time. My advice is to those so unfortunate as to have a long commute. A hybrid can be a good choice. For me that will let a car sit for a month or more without driving it, hybrids are nothing but additional problems.
This statement is very misleading to the uninitiated. Allow me to point out the problems with it so that not one person is confused by the reality:
1. If you live in a CARB state, the warranty is 10 yrs/150K miles.
2. No one in HISTORY has paid $8,000 for a Prius battery replacement. It has not and will not ever happen. The cost is far less than that, and it rarely if ever is paid ENTIRELY by the consumer.
3. There is no guarantee that a Prius owner will EVER have to replace a traction battery, and in particular there is no reason to believe that the ENTIRE battery system will fail and need replacement. Replacements such as that are VERY VERY rare. So rare, in fact, that it is difficult to even find a story about it happening that can withstand fact-checking and scrutiny.
4. I know of no one in a CARB state who has posted that the Prius battery failed outside of warranty. Not one instance of the current generation Prius having a battery replacement outside of warranty has been reported, as far as I can find.
5. The cost of replacing a Prius battery is no different than having to pay for replacing an engine in a similar car. And everyone knows that people pay for replaced engines SO OFTEN these days !!!!!!
So - is there a RISK of the Prius having a problem after 8-12 years of ownership in which a battery replacement will have to be paid for by the owner of the car? Of course there is a risk of that.
But it is not any more likely than a Malibu blowing an engine after 8-12 years. At least as far as ACTUAL CASES have gone.
There are even very few cases of the original Prius (first sold in the USA almost exactly 8 years ago now) needing a replacement battery. Those stories can be found but are also VERY VERY rare.
Prices for used Prius batteries—which come from junkyards and auto body shops—range from $450 to $1,700, says Famous Rhodes, director of eBay Motors parts and accessories.
Similarly, Toyota's Prius battery is down to $3,000 from $5,500.
The good news, though, is that the chances of needing to replace the battery in your hybrid is low, even after the warranty coverage is up. Honda says that less than 200 of its hybrid batteries have failed post-warranty, despite over 100,000 vehicles on the road. How about Toyota? Its post-warranty battery replacement rate sits at just 0.003 percent.
Modern hybrid vehicles are designed to minimize the strain on their high-power batteries. Battery management systems have been programmed to only allow a certain amount of the battery's available charge to dissipate, which greatly extends the life of the unit. So, when considering a hybrid vehicle, perhaps the battery shouldn't be too much of a deterrent.
And:
But in the limited circle to which he's responding it plays well, it doesn't matter whether it's true or not. "The Yanks are gonna take it all again this year", says one Bronx bar patron to the others... "Yeah you said it!" comes back the reply.
Both points are so are far from the realm of reality that the answer just doesn't matter. The occurances are so rare that when and if one does ever happen, just like your Sequoia, and a customer is put out of a vehicle by a warranty issue there is replacement transportation - of equal type - available at one of the TRAC outlets.
Let me also add that a battery replacement costs would need to be averaged over the total life of the car, not just the first 10 years. However, a battery replacement cost should be applied to the future life of the car. An owner replacing batteries would see a cost for years 10 to 20 (assuming the batteries are replaced at year 10 and last to year 20).
Battery replacement, as you pointed out, really isn't much of an issue as it turns out. The same folks that bring up the Prius batteries also conveniently ignore the lack of reliability from a certain manufacturer that happens to be introducing a new diesel car this year.
I am definitely convinced that the battery issue is now a non-issue - the NiMH batteries anyway. Not sure about the Li-Ion batteries yet. The issue was probably the only issue that was really standing in the way of me buying a hybrid in the future.