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Paying more than MSRP for (new) Hybrids, Depreciation/Value of used Hybrids
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Comments
Talk about Asinine. You are saying a Camry XLE (which costs about $2000 more than an LE) maintains that difference throughout its lifecycle. Find one more person who agrees with that.
2000 Civic EX loaded, 70000 miles = TMV $11,266
2000 Civic EX loaded, 105000 miles = TMV $9,772
Not exactly off the chart, is it? But the point is, and every car dealer and anyone in the used car business can verify that the 100K dropoff really exists - it's not something I made up...
Wait a minute !! You are the one who mentioned the 100K mile dropoff point, not me. And yet TMV , your bible, contradicts that assertion. So what's your position now ?
That is absolutely false. Hybrid technology has been incredibly stable and proven over multiple millions of real road miles. I have no idea where you might get that asinine and completely untrue opinion
And how have they been stable. Let's look at a 97/04 Camry and 97/04 Prius, shall we. As far as the internals are concerned, by what % has the Camry improved, and by what % the Prius.
I'm willing to bet the Pruis has improved by a much larger %. And what does that mean ?
It means the Prius (hybrid) internal technology is LESS stable.
(I just chose prius since it's been around longer than the HCH).
What I actually said was "no car lower in the line ever surpasses cars above it in resale value". you are the one who asked me to choose dollars or percentage. Here's this though:
2000 Camry LE 50K miles TMV = "12,047"
2000 camry XLE 50K miles TMV = "13,283"
There are hundreds more where that comes from.
My point is this: Since the Civic Hybrid sells "at the top end of the Civic line" there will NEVER be a time when a Civic EX/LX/DX will sell for more than a comparably equipped, same condition, same model year HCH. That will NEVER EVER happen.
quote zodiac2004-"Wait a minute !! You are the one who mentioned the 100K mile dropoff point, not me. And yet TMV , your bible, contradicts that assertion. So what's your position now ?"-end quote
Forget my opinion. Do the research yourself. Find out if the "100K dropoff" in used car values is true or not using research on your own, and get back to me.
I have no idea what you are talking about with the "how much have the internals improved?" question. Forget internals on any particular model. Show me where any Hybrid technology has been "unstable." Other than a software problem in the new Prius which has affected less than .0001 percent of the cars, I can't think of anything you might be talking about.
"And remember: In the LONG history of the US car market, NO CAR at the top of a model line (EX versus LX versus DX for example) has EVER lost value more than a lower model line car in the same family. Since the HCH and the HAH are the "top of the line" for their model families, there is no reason to think they will buck that trend"
And later in answer to my question you said it was actual dollars.
So, combining the 2, you actually said "NO CAR at the top of a model line (EX versus LX versus DX for example) has EVER lost value more in actual dollars than a lower model line car in the same family."
You later twisted it to say the following
"no car lower in the line ever surpasses cars above it in resale value".
Do you or do you not agree that hybrid technology (internals) has improved significantly over the past few years and are continuing to do so ? If you say NO, then I agree that hybrids have stabilised. If you say YES, my statement about unstable technology holds true.
I don't think it has anything to do with respect. It has to do with reality. Where has Edmund's found all these TMV prices on used hybrids? If you remember a few months ago I showed a 3 year old Prius that sold for $9100 with 90k miles on it. It was sold by a Toyota dealer in Washington DC on eBay. It was supposedly in primo condition. The Edmund's TMV was almost $16k for that car with that equipment and mileage. I don't think that there is enough evidence to say that a Civic hybrid with 50k - 100k miles will have a better resale than the EX Civic for example. Only a few are willing to take a chance on the new hybrids. Why would many take a chance on a used one. We just had a person buy a 2003 Prius and before the ink dried on the contract she was facing a $2000 + repair to the NAV system. I think anyone buying a hybrid with out some B to B warranty left is asking for a big heartache.
anyway, i also don't think the HCH will ever sell less than the HC-EX. Forget edmunds for a second- if you see two used civics, more or less equal, but one's hybrid, would you pay more for the hybrid? I would unless one of the following happens from now until then:
1) Reports of HCH shown to blow up
2) NYT headlines- "Hybrids out, Mr Fusion in- cars run on garbage as seen in back to the future."
3) gas is $1 gallon
4) battery myth becomes reality- everyone with a 5y/o hybrid must pay $$$ to operate car.
I don't see 1-3 happening. #4 is a maybe at best- but really theres not enough data to conclusively say this is fact. unfortunately as long as the PERCEPTION exists, then this will affect resale- at least until it's disproven.
That is because you think the technology is good. I doubt that 10% of the population agrees with that thinking. When I talk to friends and relatives looking for a good mileage car and mention hybrids, the answer is always the same "NO WAY". Hybrids are a long, long way from being accepted by the buying public. Our enthusiasm does not carry over to joe average American. I would not have bought a hybrid PU truck if I could have found the same truck without it. As it was they gave me the option for $1000 over the same truck without hybrid. So far I like it. Then I only have 346 miles on it in two months.
Just because something has "improved" does not mean it was "unstable" before the improvement. Right? right.
And you have twisted my posts all around trying to make me say something I did not intend to say.
My point from the start still remains: In the history of USA car sales, no car lower in the line ever surpasses cars above it in resale value. That will also be the case with Hybrids.
That is a very broad brush you are painting with. I would say just the opposite is true. If you buy a Civic EX for $20K and a Civic LX for $15K. I would bet after 5 years the EX will have lost a larger percentage of that purchase price than the LX. If you are saying the EX will always be worth more than the LX that is probably so. The HCH however is an unknown and the 3 grand premium is not necessarily going to stay with the car when it has 5 years on it.
Your own buying experience should have proven that to you. The EX had not lost as much value after 4k miles as the hybrid. That 3 grand was down to a $1500 premium in a matter of months.
Gary, all that statement shows is that the people you talk to are not properly educated about hybrids. Anyone who takes the time to get EDUCATED about them will see them for the awesome technology and gas-saving home run they really are.
It's going to take time, but it has continually been happening that more and more people are taking the time to understand the technology. That's why more and more models are coimg out and going to come out. The car companies are meeting a "REAL" demand. And with gas prices not going anywhere but up, more and more people are goint to be buying Hybrids.
"STABLE" means "firm and dependable; subject to little fluctuation;". Therefore something in a state of constant flux is by definition unstable.
Your point is irrelevant, and makes as much sense as your logic in expounding how much money you save every month by trading in your avalanche for the HCH.
Let me illustrate if you find my statements difficult to follow :
If your HCH costs 3000 more than an EX and 5 years later sells for a 1000 more, you have LOST an extra 2000 over the EX in depreciation.
And we also love you for being the scapegoat for nascent technology, and we will someday reap the benefits of what you paid for.
PS: Even if gas stays $3 a gallon or more, don't get into a dollars/cents argument trying to justify purchase of a new hybrid. You'll LOSE.
Tell me again: Exactly what about hybrid technology is "in a state of flux?" Not the individual cars. Not the performance of the individual cars. You can't mean that because the Prius was "redesigned" that put "hybrids" into a state of flux, can you? Because if you say that, then "all cars" are in a state of flux, since new models and new improvements come along as a matter of course. What exactly about hybrid technology is fluctuating, leading to it's "instability?"
Your point about the "HCH costs 3000 more than an EX and 5 years later sells for a 1000 more, you have LOST an extra 2000 over the EX in depreciation" is not really a point. That happens on all cars of a line, just as you pointed out earlier. Just because a Camry XLE sells for $2000 more than a Camry LE when new does not mean a Camry XLE 5 years down the road will sell for $2000 more than a comparably equipped LE, does it? No, but you can bet the house it WILL SELL FOR MORE than the LE.
That's my point about the hybrids - a Civic Hybrid at 100K miles will NOT sell less than a Civic EX at 100K miles "just because it's a hybrid" and the buyer might be worried about a battery replacement. That's just silly.......
:P <<--- My Prius is passing all the gas stations while the POOR SUV driver pouts.
Yeah, it's real cold up here. I can barely step out of my igloo !!!
Talk about getting an education.
You want to get into a dollars/cents comparison between my cars and yours. Name the time and place.
And most importantly, I didn't parade all over the internet about how wise my car buying decisions are. You did. I buy and drive what I like, and I hope to spend the least amount of money while doing so.
On the subject of being glorified, a Prius is merely a gussied up Echo, a HCH merely an EX with an expensive crutch it doesn't need.
Actually... at $3/gal I'd about break even vs. the guy next door with the Civic EX...
...but that isn't the point. With Hybrid access to the HOV lanes, I've got 45 minutes to an hour of my life back each day that my neighbor and his extra few thousand will never get back.
Oh... and I've moved out of the area, so I'm selling my three-year-old hybrid. The dealers are currently asking less than three thousand dollars less than I paid for the car three years back. Sure... I'll never get a private party sale at the same price the dealers charge... but even $4,000 depreciation over three years is pretty impressive. That's about the lowest total cost of ownership I've ever seen on a new car.
Oh yeah... I "LOSE".
This is where a savvy person can distinguish between evolutionary and revolutionary change.
IC engine technology has been stable for several years, of course undergoing evoutionary change.
Battery aided hybrids change much more rapidly, simply because nobody really knows what works best. Battery and regen technology have changed dramatically in the past few years. Same as computers. Every couple of years or so there is new chip/memory technology which makes the old ones seem like the stone age.
I believe you bought an extended warranty with your HCH. There is also the other person (molokai ??) who is proud of the fact he bought one with his Prius. Why buy it? A Civic or Camry certainly doesn't need one.
Actions speak louder than words.
You bought the warranty simply for one reason - fear of the unknown.
When you can buy and treat a Pruis/HCH the same as a Camry/Civic, then I'll agree that the technology is stable.
And you say a HCH will always be worth more than a EX.
Can the HCH be serviced at any shade-tree mechanic who can service a Civic? Or can it only be serviced at a dealer? Realise if it's dealer service only, that represents a 100% increase in ongoing maintenance costs and the used car price will reflect that.
There is a lot more to think about when you try to predict what future resale values will look like rather than making naive statements like "Civic Hybrid at 100K miles will NOT sell less than a Civic EX at 100K miles "just because it's a hybrid"
if 10% of the population were interested in buying hybrids, prices would be sky high. I have no idea what the numbers are (so I'll just make them up- but you'll see my point), but let's assume that hybrids make up 0.01% of the cars on the road. if 1% of the population wanted a used hybrid, then that would skew the supply and demand curves. obviously not everyone who has a hybrid is selling, and not everyone who's interested is buying.
Zodiac: I reread some of your earlier posts. Do you think a hybrid will depreciate at a faster rate (% wise) than a comparable gas model in a 5+ year time frame? I see a lot of posts where you pick apart some aspect larsb's posts, but I don't really see what you're getting at. so let me take a stab and try to "simplify" both of your points
Zodiac: buying hybrids is not smart because they'll depreciate like a rock due to possible battery and other repar cost issues.
Larsb: given the current trend in resale values, and the probability of increasing gas prices and increasing interest in hybrids, the resale will remain strong.
Am I close?
"Serviced" like oil changes, alignment, CV boots, AC repairs, Belts, etc etc etc? Sure it can.
If you mean the IMA system? Probably not... but it already comes with a much longer warranty.
There is a lot more to think about when you try to predict what future resale values will look like rather than making naive statements like "Civic Hybrid at 100K miles will NOT sell less than a Civic EX at 100K miles "just because it's a hybrid"
You say that as if they aren't already selling. The hybrid with 100k sells for $2,000 more than the EX. In the DC area it's quite a bit higher than that. The highest mileage on the market near me is over 60k miles and is listed for $17,000.
That is the price someone is hoping to get. The only place I know that you see prices paid is on eBay motors. Most dealers do not get close to what they want on hybrids. If you know of a better source for actual prices paid in the USA on used cars, please share with us. A few here on the forum have found that they have VERY POOR trade-in value after a couple years.
The very fact that you are stuck with repair at the dealer after the warranty is up is a big turn off for me. Toyota & Honda are not known for being gracious after the 36k miles is up.
Correct AMIGO - but your REASON is WRONG !! I have bought an extended warranty for every new or used car I have purchased since 1996. I don't have $1000 lying around unused in a bank account ready for every little "over 36,000 mile" or "over 60,000 mile" breakdown that ALL CARS have. Hybrid has nothing to do with it. My 1992 Infiniti Q45 kept losing fuel injectors at $600 a pop. My 1997 Suburban lost an A/C compressor at about 70,000 miles - $1400 out of my pocket. I learned of the wisdom of extended warranties the HARD WAY, and I have learned the lesson.
Naïveté comes from lack of education. I am not lacking in education of about car values and/or understanding of the US car market and it's history.
And the "shade tree mechanic" thing is a tired argument too. All modern cars are complex and almost all require a computer in the mechanics shop which can interface with the car. Hybrids are not alone in this area. Saying "I'm not buying a hybrid because mechanic Joe Schmo cannot work on it" is a ridiculous way to go about life.
The items that you "need" to go to the dealer for are covered by quite a bit more than a 36k warranty.
And I wouldn't put much stock in ebay sales as some kind of benchmark. A handful of sales nation-wide is nothing. There are a number of sources (NADA,KBB, etc) with thousands of sales that support the fact that the hybrid retails for a couple thousand over the EX. In the DC area, this is not just the price they are "hoping to get". There are several listed in this range.
Trust me on this one. The other guys is going to come around to agreeing with your viewpoint just about the same time that you say, "Gee... I was wrong, YOU'RE right!", no matter how many times you repeat your points and no matter how many zingers you throw in at them.
This topic is not about whether or not folks should buy hybrids. Let's stick to the topic of paying more than MSRP and values for used hybrids. That's plenty to keep us busy in this one.
So take a couple of deep breaths while I sort out the off topic stuff here and then let's get this back on track.
Thanks for your cooperation and participation.
Check out the Learn More About TMV pages if you want a little more insight.
..... Right now they are strong in the market, kinda like a big fish in a small pond .....
And some people "really" feel they will save big money, and some will ... -if- they drive 25/45k a year and then keep it 7/8 years ..... but trading in a 2 year old Caddy or a Bimmer that gets 25mpg for a vehicle that gets 35mpg is kinda nutty if they drive 8/12k a year and then drop-in the $5,0/$6,000 of negative "eckity" ... but these are usually the same folks that have refi'd their home 3 times in the last 2 years and think their saving money ..l.o.l.....
The reason why you see alot of hybrids for sale is -- comfort and size .... you take most drivers out of a Fat Daddy ride and drop them into a small hybrid and I will guarantee in 6 months or less you will see him sneaking around the lots looking at M45's, TL's, CTS's, etc, etc ........ hey, mine is not to reason "why" .. mine is to do or - aah, get paid for it ..........
To answer your question - example only .... the 05 Ford Escape XLT 4x4 "Hybrid" is doing ..... drum roll please .... in and around the $25/$26 range at the auctions with 5/7k ------------------ Yikes.!
The prices are skewed because of the current hybrid "trendiness"; in 2008-2009 hybrids will be less trendy and the true resale will show. Also, the curren upward trend in gas prices has helped.
Not that I'm saying they won't hold their value. I'm saying we won't know for sure until then...
Homer Smith, Tuscaloosa Alabama, 1905.
"You'll never see those horseless carrriages at my estate - too many unknowns"
Broderick Harrington III, The Hamptons, 1910.
"Why would a family ever need a Color TV? My black and white works just fine."
Ward Cleaver, 1957
"Toyota Targeting Mass Sales - Toyota said it will aim the hybrid system at the mass market. Whether it can succeed will depend in large part on the price, which Toyota hasn't yet announced. "It's nice to have the technology, but they've got to sell to have an impact on the environment," said Securities Ltd. analyst Peter Boardman."
Wall Street Journal, March 26, 1997
"I don't consider hybrids to be worth paying over MSRP at this time; too many unknowns...."
stevedebi, Edmunds, 2005.
Thank you for illustrating how different my opinion is from the ones around the turn of the 20th century. People really should never use the word 'never'...
""Toyota Targeting Mass Sales - Toyota said it will aim the hybrid system at the mass market. Whether it can succeed will depend in large part on the price, which Toyota hasn't yet announced. "It's nice to have the technology, but they've got to sell to have an impact on the environment," said Securities Ltd. analyst Peter Boardman."
Wall Street Journal, March 26, 1997 "
This statement is still true, they have to sell to have an impact on the environment, and cost is still one of the biggest detriments to hybrid sales. Rather good comment, I should think. At the moment, hybrids make up maybe less than 1% of the market annually (or so, I don't have the exact numbers, but it is less than 100k cars out of millions sold).
This is not about HOV lanes, diesel vs hybrid, emissions, tax credits, or anything else that's in the previous 6 posts here.
When a user comes to the forum, they have an expectation to find content in the discussion that has something to do with the titles they see. But we keep winding up in the same off topic "debate" with the same folks trying to make the same points to each other. And it keeps happening in multiple topics.
It's time to pay a little attention to the topics you're posting in and keep things focused on that topic.
Most of the off topic stuff is more appropriate for the Tax Credits / incentives for hybrids? discussion and I'll move them there..
I have to agree, mostly because I'm too stubborn to pay above MSRP.
If I go an buy an xbox and pay half the original msrp, $150, is that a bad deal? yes it is because its about to become obsolete. but 3 years ago, paying (the then msrp) of $300 was a good buy because it was the best game you could get for the money. (i have no idea, I don't play video games nor did I ever buy one- i'm just using a popular non-car example)
maybe in cars, the notion of MSRP has become a bit of a game with everyone.
I mean, car dealership owners are MILLIONAIRES.. They stick it to us left and right. I heard a radio ad the other day in the "quick small print part at the end" say "excludes Documentation fee of $400" and I thought What The Flip? It costs them about $5 in paper and $50 at the most in human wages to process the paperwork of a car sale. $400 for doc fees !!! What's it gonna be next, $500? $750? When does the madness end? :mad:
There is no place else to buy new cars - EVERY NEW CAR SOLD IN AMERICA to a public citizen is sold at a car dealership. In a way, it's an unfair monopoly.
So paying "no more than MSRP" is our way of trying to have some dignity in the scenario...:D
As to hybrids ....I would never consider squabbling over 200-500 bucks but thats me. I'm more concerned about finance rates and any hidden charges that can be subtly tacked on. READ THE FINE PRINT!! Also check with your local bank or credit union. They're very competitive these days. If you're trading ...Know what your trade-in is worth (banks & Credit unions will tell you free of charge. Finally...Clean it, polish it, and wash it and run an ad. You'll be surprised just how easy it can be to sell it yourself. Then be sure to test drive a Prius 'cause then I think you'll buy one.Seriously!!
Railroadjames(Remember...Friends don't let friends drive "SUV'S") :shades:
What is the primary value of a hybrid - the greater MPG and better emissions? How about resale value in a few years. From what it looks like, if more hybrids are made I would expect the regular gas cars resale value to drop significantly. Is this the general sense of what is likely to happen? If so, then it may make a lot of sense to get a hybrid now to avoid large drops in resale value 5 to 7 years hence.
Thanks.
Hunt4car.
As far as wait lists are concerned, they have diminished in most of the country. GM has extended their employee pricing program to unload more of their "kleenex cars" (throwaway cars). That has not eroded the hybrid fever. Do a search on some of the prius forums to get more information.
you asked about the effect hybrids would have on the resale of gas cars. I don't think there'll be an impact one way or another. hybrids make up such a small percentage of the used car market that its not even a drop in the bucket.
when i buy a car, resale value is a consideration, but not the only factor. I think resale of hybrids will be comparable to regular cars (% wise), so I would say buy a hybrid if you think that's the car for you.
Drive safely,
MidCow
6-cyl is a relative guzzler. Had an '01 XLT 4WD
Hybrids are best if there's a lot of city driving, or a mix that's heavy on the city and commuter stop-and-go traffic like in a large metro area.
Just the other day got stuck on NJ side of Lincoln Tunnel and drove most of it on juice (have an '05 Hybrid AWD)