The Future Of The Manual Transmission

wale_bate1 · August 2005

Disagree. Not on trends between Europe and US of course. Being a smaller car fan, I'd like some Euro-sense to rub off here so that more of what I want will be made available to me. It's all about me, after all. But I think your decade prediction, Nippon, is a very safe one. It will be a while before the third pedal goes away.

Disagree on perpetuation of the manual based on fuel economy, as well as performance. Two observations lead me to my state of semi-contrarianism, and both are from Audi: DSG on smaller displacements, and Stepronic on larger.

The A3 equipped with DSG is (according to the paperwork) as efficient as its manual counterpart, but also quicker, and with no loss of critical driver input. I've said it before, I believe this is the next step in transmissions, now that they've figure out how to bring it to mass market. Refinements, I'm sure, are under way to further enhance its capabilities, reduce its costs and lighten its gravity load (its only apparent disadvantage thus far). The Steptronic argument is admittedly weaker, but given that the S4 Avant with its 4.2 is on my upcoming shopping list, I observe that its fuel economy is acutally better with the six-speed Step than it is with the 6M. The performance of the manual though is better. Weaker argument of course, but not all automatics are horrid pigs depending on application.

I'm not dedicated to the third pedal, obviously. I haved enjoyed it in my lifetime, but have encountered far more situations in recent years in which it was tedious, and far fewer in which I could experience any true driving joy.

As far as fuel prices equalizing with Europe, I don't see this country ever getting there. So much of the Euro market's behavior with regard to fuel is artificially influenced by taxation. Whether right or wrong, there's no way this country will stand for that. The attitude here is that it's one of Jefferson's unalienable rights to have readily available (comparatively) inexpensive fuel. Political careers die on rising fuel prices, and armed conflict to sustain and promote consistent flow?

Also, just traveling for business here in CA, I can cover more miles in a single trip than many European households do in a decade of vacations. We're a big damn country with a whole lot of territory to cover!

While there is some renewed interest in fuel economy right now, it's nowhere near widespread. There may be those eschewing the Extradition or Pukon for a Prius, but they are few still and far between. I admit that the rise has not changed my habits nor my budgeting needs in the least thus far...

stickguy · August 2005

remember, the DSG is a true manual tranny (aka a stick). It just has an electronic clutch. Heck, Porsche and VW offered these back in the '70's (60's?), along with Renault I believe. They just work better now.

So, is the debate over manually tranny of the third pedal? Even if the manual is dumbed down to act like an AT.

What we really need is a switch for the clutch. That is, you can choose to use it normally, or if you get caught in traffic, put it on autopilot mode. Now that is the best of both worlds.

kyfdx · August 2005

You'll have to excuse wale.. He drives a wagon with a slushbox..

I hold him personally responsible for the downfall of the manual transmission..

Word on the street: He just got his AARP card...

stickguy · August 2005

it's a Hatchback with a fogie tranny. Not big enough to be a wagon.

My mother is 73, and she still drives a stick. That should make him feel better.

cerberus300 · August 2005

In the UK there are automatic and manual driving licenses. It is illegal to drive a manual if you hold only an automatic license. As far as I know (this was from my UK driving instructor), all vehicles without a manual clutch (i.e. full autos or auto-clutch-and-stick) are considered automatic, so learning to drive in one will only allow you to have an automatic drivers license. The manual driving test is all about clutch control, especially hill starts. It's an instant fail if you roll back even a fraction of an inch!

So why do I prefer a manual over autos? Safety. I learnt to drive during the cold half of the year (i.e. Sept thru March) and my first experience of driving on ice and snow was during this time. Good time to learn is in the someone else's (driving school's) car. I learnt a lot about clutch control and braking on dark icy/snowy roads (most of my lessons were in the late evenings too). My instructor told me that it would have been too dangerous to have a lesson in an auto in those conditions!

nippononly · August 2005

be nice to Wale. His car is the coolest, even if dumb ol' Lexus chose not to make a manual version available. :-)

The thing I want to know about DSGs, which no-one really seems to know, is what you have to do when the clutches inside fail. I mean, they are regular clutches, electronically operated, right? Which means that just like any clutch, they will need replacement. Now is this the $800-1000 job that replacing a regular clutch would be? Or is this a complete tear-down with a cost on the order of a typical auto tranny rebuild/replacement, like $2000+? If the latter, I want none of it.

And besides, I prefer to be able to modulate the clutch myself, so I still prefer the third pedal. I do agree that the DSG is a big step forward for automatics.

Wale and I agree on one thing for sure: manuals will not be perpetuated because of the fuel economy advantage. That is so close to going away entirely, it should do so within a few years on most models. I believe that the manual will last beyond that day for reasons of cost in economy cars, and for reasons of owner preference in sport models. I mean, they said stuff like BMW's SMG would make manuals obsolete, but word is that SMG-equipped cars are TERRIBLE to drive at normal speeds/running errands and whatnot. Jerky, jarring, whatever in full-auto mode.

wale_bate1 · August 2005

Would that we had those kinds of licensing requirements here. Be a safer place for all of us. I'm thinking.

Pay no attention to that man from Kentucky, BTW. He's just jealous of my Toyota...
}-]

kyfdx · August 2005

I don't think the clutches in a DSG will be considered a "wear" or maintenance item... I think the DSG will be treated as an automatic transmission, and those are internal mechanical parts.. I wish someone would call Audi and find out..

Plus being electronically actuated, they won't endure 10% of the wear that a normal clutch receives... perfectly matched revs on every upshift and downshift, etc..

SMGs are terrible, I agree... but, you don't have to pay for clutch jobs on them, either...

nippononly · August 2005

I see. So the general consensus is that the clutches in a DSG should last the life of the car, no sweat? In that case, DSGs should easily outlast regular auto transmissions, which never seem to be able to get much beyond the 150K point, if even anywhere near that.

kyfdx · August 2005

Well.. if it were a Honda..... then the clutch would last over 100K, anyway...

Being an Audi, I see no problem with the clutch lasting the life of the transmission... which should be about 10 miles after the warranty runs out.. :surprise:

wale_bate1 · August 2005

This old, rapidly decaying man loves leasing for that very reason, in part that is.

andys120 · August 2005

"Steptronic" is not the proper terminology for Audi's automanual setup, it's called a "Tiptronic" (it's based on Porsche design and they use the same term, I believe VW does too.

"Steptronic" is BMW's term for their Automanual setup (not SMG but a shiftable A/T).

I know this only because I've owned both, don't beat up on me I have to drive a two-pedal car on accountof a disability

wale_bate1 · August 2005

Sorry Andy. I realized it after I typed it.

But hey it's German, and we Toyota huggers tend to lump Audi and Porsche and BMW and Opel in the VW family anyway...

D'oh!

ateixeira · August 2005

We should wait to sample Audi's system before passing final judgement.

The system on the MR2 is *HORRIBLE*, herky-jerky and nausea-inducing. It's slower and less efficient, too. It helped seal the fate of the MR2, Toyota is now cancelling the car while the MX-5 lives on.

Audi's system is supposedly a whole bunch better, so not all these systems are created equal.

-juice

kyfdx · August 2005

A big difference for Audi's DSG, is that, from all reports, it is indistinguishable from a regular automatic, when driven in automatic mode.. In fact, it is the only "automatic transmission" offered in the A3..

And, while the term "Tiptronic" is correct for Audi... I wouldn't get too caught up in comparing it to the Porsche Tiptronic.... Basically, Audi licenses the name.. They can use it on any and all automatic transmissions, no matter where they come from, or how closely they relate to the Porsche technology... Not that Porsche's Tiptronic is anything to write home about... It was pretty nifty ten years ago, but many others have passed it by.. (See DSG).

Actually, BMW's automatic (Steptronic) is superior to the Tiptronic in the Audi A4.. At least in my experience...

regards,
kyfdx

ateixeira · August 2005

I think you're right about the name being used on different system. In my experience, the A4's isn't nearly as quick or smart as the one in my buddy's Boxster. That one was incredible.

I'm a fan of manuals, in fact all 3 cars in my fleet have 3 pedals, but I'd welcome that Porsche to my fleet any day. It matched revs on shifts, changed gears quickly, and held a gear in turns, just as I would.

The A4 didn't do any of those things.

-juice

kyfdx · August 2005

As good as the Tip feels in the Boxster, it comes with a serious acceleration penalty.... As you mentioned, it is pretty intuitive when it comes to shifting... but, it saps the power... A full second slower in 0-60...

And the price... $3250!!

Although I really like manuals, I'm trying to get my wife interested in the A3 for her car.... I hear that the DSG is really nice.. If I have to live with an automatic, that would be a great compromise...

regards,
kyfdx

andys120 · August 2005

Actually, BMW's automatic (Steptronic) is superior to the Tiptronic in the Audi A4.. At least in my experience...

I agree completely, the Steptronic system gives much crisper shifts and has a better feel overall.

ateixeira · August 2005

That is pricey, can't argue there. But if I had to drive a slush box that would be my choice.

I think Audi's new DSG has more potential, though I'd still be concerned about launch smoothness. I gotta sample it.

-juice

cerberus300 · August 2005

Well, at least with the A3 you have the option of buying with DSG or manual transmission, which is more than can be said for some manufacturers.

allfiredup · August 2005

Several sources including vtec.net are reporting that the '06 Accord EX V6 Sedan will be available with a 6-speed manual transmission, like the EX V6 Coupe. It also will get the 17-inch wheels and other minor tweaks from the coupe.

I'm really looking forward to it. After owning eight Honda/Acura products, I bought a Nissan Maxima in 2003 because Honda didn't offer a V6/manual combo in a sedan. My lease is almost up and I will definitely be checking out this new Accord.

ateixeira · August 2005

I bet a lot of people will be interested. In fact I wonder if it might hurt Acura TSX and TL sales to offer it.

But there is pent-up demand. I bet they will easily sell every one they make.

-juice

nippononly · August 2005

I bet they won't make very many...

I'm so gloomy!

Too bad Honda won't build a V-6 Accord without leather, be it manual or automatic.

:-/

kyfdx · August 2005

The V-6 Accord LX has a cloth interior... Of course, no moonroof or alloys..

nippononly · August 2005

yeah, I know, should have specified - GOTTA have the moonroof and alloys!

scott1256 · August 2005

Most cars are bought out of dealer stock.

The manual/V-6 combination will be hard to find in dealer inventory.

If dealers don't stock manuals there won't be many sold.

wai · August 2005

Yes, total agreed. The dealership of Altima 2.5S has also no manuals. This is very common for mid-size sedans. Guess the manuals has lower profit margin than automatics and buyers of midsize sedan prefer a hand-free driving habit. (talk on the phone or eating). They also feared that manuals is difficult to resale later.

lv2srf · August 2005

Aren't they one in the same? ZF 5hp19 with only slight modifications mostly for mounting purposes.

allfiredup · August 2005

I agree with you. When I bought my Maxima it took me endless hours of searching to find one with the 6-speed, sunroof and CLOTH interior. Every dealer had plenty with leather and the options I wanted, but only found a handful of them with cloth (and every one I found before mine was an ugly color combo).

I wish Honda would realize some customers don't like leather but do want all the other luxuries. The EX 4-cylinder is as close as it gets. Even my '95 Legend had cloth (had to search for that one, too).

allfiredup · August 2005

Actually, in January of this year I was helping a friend find and buy a new Altima 2.5S. She wanted an automatic, but as I was searching online for the exact one she wanted I noticed most dealers had at least one or two manuals in stock. Most of them had no options, but a few had the package including the Bose stereo, moonroof and other extras.

From what I've been told, for some reason Nissans with manual transmissions tend to disappear at year end. When they start delivering '06 models regularly, the Altima should show up on lots with a manual.

kyfdx · August 2005

A '95 Legend with cloth?

That might be the only one on the planet....

wale_bate1 · August 2005

I had an '87 with cloth. I'm amazed too; I thought cloth disappeared by '90.

Geez, Nippon, forego the moonroof and buy the dealer-stocked alloys. Then you can exercise your left leg all you want in a V6 Accord! Better yet, have Tirerack send you something tasteful from SSR. Probably end up weighing about half of the Honda alloys...

nippononly · August 2005

GOTTA have the moonroof! :-P

wale_bate1 · August 2005

OK. Can opener, tube of Liquid Nails and a quick visit to TAP Plastics...
;-]

bobbrown1 · August 2005

Slightly off topic, but does anyone recall when was the last car with a manual column shifter built?

wale_bate1 · August 2005

Andre or Lemko? Your ball, lads!

kyfdx · August 2005

It is probably going to be a pickup of some kind... My guess is a domestic full-size pickup from the mid-late '70s..

I remember seeing a Volare station wagon with a stick shift, in '76 or '77... but, alas, it was in the floorboard..

akaristos · August 2005

Yes, there were plenty on the lower models of 95 Legend. I think only the GS model has leather as standard

nippononly · August 2005

did a quick recon across three dealers yesterday, Nissan, Honda, Toyota - they were all neighbors - the only manuals on the Toyota lot were Tacoma trucks, the only ones at the Nissan lot were trucks and a couple of 350Zs, and the only ones at the Honda lot were two Civic SIs and a few base Civics.

I was actually encouraged the Honda dealer would stock ANY SIs.

But in several hundred vehicles, I could have counted the manuals on both hands.

All three dealers were WELL WELL stocked with vehicles claiming to have a stick shift as the "standard" transmission: Sentra, Altima, Corolla, Camry, Accord. And yet the only model with a "standard" manual that actually existed in stock in that form was the Civic, and it was only the cheapest Civics on the lot, and the SI, which doesn't have an automatic option.

A good sign? No. :-(

stickguy · August 2005

I think the cheap Fords (base Granada maybe) had a 3 onthe tree in the 70's. The Chevelle did too, but that was also probably mid-70's.

I also reconed the other day at the BMW lot. They had about 12 -14 of the new 3 series, everything from base 325i (33K) to loaded 330i (44K, ouch!). Of course, not one was a stick. This from the "ultimate drivers machine", that last I heard, still sold a fairly high percentage of manuals. Bet that goes down with this iteration though.

Actually, I think that they stock manuals for the drop-in traffic. If you want a stick, they have to order it, and it never shows up on the front lot, so just basing it on what you see in stock will be misleading.

I hope the Honda dealer stocks some 5 speeds on the new Civic for when I go check it out next month. But, wouldn't be the first time I had to evaluate the AT version of a car since there weren't any sticks available. At least with Honda, I know (ok, expect) it to have a slick shifter and clutch, so no worries there. An AT car will still fit the same, and ride/handle the same.

Big negative (for sales) is removing the impulse buy opportunity that I am famous for. Lot harder to do something stupid when the car won't arrive for 6-8 weeks!

nippononly · August 2005

an Accord just to check it out, have been thinking idly of trading for something with four doors. Talked with the salesman about the possibility of getting a stick shift Accord, was told that the stick shift had "gone the way of the dinosaur". Had to test drive an auto. In corresponding with three different Honda dealerships by internet, I have been told time and time again that stick shift EXs will be impossible to get. If ONLY it were as easy as telling the dealership I want one, and waiting 6 to 8 weeks for it to arrive!

:-(

john500 · August 2005

In 1987, I learned to drive on my father's 1979 Ford pickup (F150 I believe). It had a column shifter so for pickups the column shifters went until at least 1979. Not sure about the cars.

gsolman6 · August 2005

That's too bad since getting the manual will save you $800 and will yield 2 mpg better in the city.

Are most consumers unaware that autos and manual versions of the same car will get different mileage with manuals most frequently getting better?

If I were a salesman and I had manuals on the lot I would definitely point this out to potential customers given what gas prices are today.

carlisimo · August 2005

I certainly don't get good mileage on stickshift cars. I'm having way too much instead!

michaellno · August 2005

Lessee .. one Honda dealer here in Denver has 4 2005 Accord LX's with a stick. Another has 4 EX's - 2 black, 1 green, 1 silver, plus a bunch of LX's as well in a variety of colors.

nippononly · August 2005

You are so lucky!

Yes, I noticed that some other local dealerships ordered some of those manual shift LXs, because that is what the current lease promotion from Honda is pushing. You've seen the ads for $189/month for an Accord? Well, that Accord is the manual shift LX, can't get the auto for that lease.

I am quite convinced that if there no such promotion, there would be no manual Accords at those dealers at all, and for me it would have to be an EX. In fact, I think I might prefer an EX-L for all the extra stuff you get, even though I don't really like leather.

ateixeira · August 2005

Sounds like those are ad cars. They old bait-and-switch, most people come in wanting that deal and then need an auto, so they have to pay more.

A few like us can capitalize and get a deal, though.

-juice

michaellno · August 2005

I once bought the "1 only at this price" Accord. Was back in '92 - first wife had totalled her car and needed a replacement. She wanted an Accord LX, auto, navy blue in color.

Found an ad in the Friday LA Times for a Honda dealer about 30 minutes away ... they were advertising an Accord LX for $13K and change (MSRP, IIRC, was $17K or so). We called them on it. You guessed it -- navy blue with an auto. Drove down that night and bought the car.

I always wondered how many people called that ad over the weekend and found that the car was already sold.

ateixeira · August 2005

We bought our 626 that way. I knew it would be a 5 speed at the price advertised. I was right.

-juice

boaz47 · August 2005

and I am surprised we still have this forum. I have been a manual driver for some years now and I agree with Nippon they are getting harder to find on the lot. I don't order a car and wait for it and I never will. I test drive as many as I can and at least three of the same kind when I buy. I pick the one I like it the baby is coming home with me. However as much as I like manuals one of the biggest reasons I have one is I don't freeway commute. Also I would trade a traditional dogleg three pedal car in a hot second for one with a paddle shifter. Heck I would trade for a sequencial six speed with a third pedal if they offered one. The motorcycle type of shifter seems like a much better way to run twisty mountain roads to me then up and over two gates to get back to second in a more traditional six speed.

It is simple math however. Manuals simply don't sell in the same numbers as automatics. Driving schools are teaching our children to drive automatics. When a kid has a chance to get their first car they tend to buy what they can drive and so manuals seemed doomed to be sold in smaller and smaller numbers. As long as dealers use the 7-11 re-stocking method or only ordering what they have sold in the last month and cutting back on the cars that are left over at the end of the month manuals will be minority cars in the US. Enthusiasts simply don't buy enough cars to keep the manufacturers interested in making more manuals. I will check back from time to time to see if things change any.

The Future Of The Manual Transmission

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