What If - Gasoline is $5 a gallon in 2010?

andre1969 · March 2005

sad thing about those downsized FWD C-bodies is that they actually had a LARGER turning radius than the larger B-bodies that were out in '85. And a C- with the V-6 was no faster and didn't get any better economy than a B-body with a 305 or 307 V-8! At least, not according to the 1985 Consumer Guide that I have.

Now a few years later, once they improved the fuel injection, acceleration was quicker and fuel economy improved, and nowadays the 3.8 is a very economical engine that still has decent power. But it certainly wasn't so in 1985!

brucej · March 2005

rorr,

Why sight Chomsky again? It has already been established that he is a flame throwing, leftist nutball. Have you done any digging yet? Try following: www.simmonsco-intl.com/ This man has a little experience in the industry.

rorr · March 2005

I cite (not "sight") Chomsky because he is one of my personal barometers. Has it occurred to you that one can find something on the internet to support virtually ANY theory? Has it occurred to you that some individuals may have a vested interest in stoking hysteria regarding the future of oil prices?

I'm still working with my "blind faith" theory and sticking to my idea that the sky is NOT falling.....

brucej · March 2005

rorr,

Nevermind. You're right

PF_Flyer · March 2005

We're far enough into the "trying to prove something to the other guy" discussion here, and we really don't need to go any farther. In case you hadn't noticed, there are times when you're NOT going to get the other side to budge... no matter how many times you repeat the same thing. So let's move on shall we?

Thanks for your cooperation and participation.

If you want to take this live sometime in one of the chats, I'll be glad to play referee. you can post links in the chats and we all can click on them to open in a new window and look at them and discuss them together. Tuesdays or Thursdays at 8:45PM ET. I wouldn't want the whole chat group to spend the entire session on one topic (and if you've ever been to one of the chats, you KNOW we wander around...LOL) but going into this would be fun and perhaps enlightening.

PF Flyer
Host
News & Views, Wagons, & Hybrid Vehicles

brucej · March 2005

Not surprised as peak oil is not something the automotive industry is anxious to discuss. Drive on brother.

rorr · March 2005

Trying to prove a point to brucej? Yes, but not in the usual fashion.

I'll simply wait for Oct. 1.

andre1969 · March 2005

oil futures have sunk down to $52.80 per barrel today. Of course, it's going to fluctuate, so check back tomorrow for more doom and gloom, and watch the stock market see-saw in reaction to it!

PF_Flyer · March 2005

The sun might come up tomorrow and then the traders will have to figure out what THAT means!

reddogs · March 2005

my 20 acre farm in the Everglades and 1/32 of a tank of gas away from the nearest population center. All this "sky is falling" and "chicken little loves peak oil" is starting to make me nervous. Maybe I should start pulling out the M1 Abrams and other End Of World equipment out of its bunkers and get the corn cleared out of the Nuclear Impact Resistant Silo and fire up my Dell "Dr Strangelove" computer to calculate when my "Peak Oil" period is going to happen.....

Or maybe I should just go out and fill up my Hummer H2 with premium and get a beer, yeah, thats the ticket......:0)

wilcox · March 2005

All right reddoggie. Are you trying to tell us that you are betting on a huge terrorist attack before Oct 1st?? You using the bush futures market as an indicator...Poor old Simba.

If that is true, who knows, the price of gasoline may be over $3.00 per gallon.

It also might decrease to $1.50 ??
Sincerely, wilcox

bottgers · March 2005

I think another interesting point to make is just how high of a price can our economy afford and still survive? I personally don't see any way our economy could withstand sustained prices at $3 or more without going at least into some kind of rescession. I think the powers to be are smart enough to realize they need our economy to stay strong so it can keep pumping money into their pockets. They can raise the price to $100 a gallon, but they're not making any money if no one can afford to buy it.

brucej · March 2005

Not sure why $3.00 gas means the sky is falling. I merely believe that the laws of supply and demand indicate gas is going to go up. If supply decreases and demand remains the same or increases cost will go up. I believe that because the oil majors are not finding and bringing on-line new reserves at the same rate that developed reserves are declining we are about to enter into a period of shortages.

Last year China increased oil imports by 33%. Their projected increase for this year is 10%. China currently has a mere 20 million cars in use. Projected numbers by 2020 is 120 million.

We have not built a new refinery in this country in over 25 years. Last week a major fire at a refinery in Texas took out the capacity to boost octane at that facility. Have you checked out high test prices in the last week? One crummy little refinery yet since we haven't built any lately it has an almost immediate effect on the market place.

In the 70's we had a shortage because OPEC banded together and reduced production. Current global production is running at 98%. Remember how everyone was predicting how the Saudi's were going to ramp up production right before the election and that would bring prices down and help get Bush re-elected? Well it never happened because the Saudis' were already pumping it out of the ground as fast as they could.

What we are entering into here is not a repeat of the artifically created shortage of the 70's. We are beginng to enter into a period where previously underdeveloped areas of the world are beginning to develop a taste for oil. The largest reserves (Saudi Arabia) were discovered 40 years ago. There is quite a bit of evidence that for them to keep production as high as it has been, they have corrupted future production by pumping water into the extraction process to keep current pressures high. (Penny wise...pound foolish)

Folks you gotta believe me, I think that we live in the greatest nation on earth. What a person chooses to drive should be their personal choice. Someone mentioned earlier about filling up the Hummer and grabbing a six-pack. Great... i could use a beer myself about now. All I'm saying is that it is going to get a bit more expensive for the priviledge of getting in our cars and driving down to the corner for a loaf of bread. If you happen to interpret that as the "sky falling" then so be it.

stevedebi · March 2005

"At one time, we even had an electrified passenger railroad line that had a stop maybe 700 feet from my house. From there you could go to DC, Baltimore, or Annapolis. One little problem...it went bankrupt about 35 years before I was born. :-("

They didn't go bankrupt. GM went throughout the country after WWII and bought up all the electric trolly car companies. Then they closed them all, to force cities into bus sales. It was a deliberate and dastardly act, and is the main reason I will never purchase a GM product. Philadelphia had a trolly line on almost every street...

andre1969 · March 2005

this one went bankrupt, from what I heard. Or at least the passenger service portion of it did. The track between DC and Baltimore, along with the bridges and other steel and iron material, was pulled up in 1939 and sold to the Japanese, who gave it back to us a few years later in Pearl Harbor.

They still ran freight service for awhile between Baltimore and Annapolis, I think up until the late 60's or early 70's. In fact, in one of the neighborhoods just west of the Severn River you can still see the rails, where they never bothered to pull them up.

When did they stop running trolleys in Philly? I was up there for the auto show, and did notice that there were still a lot of tracks in the street, as well as overhead lines. They don't still run some of them, do they?

reddogs · March 2005

Nice to see you Wilcox, hope all is well, Simba says hi...I had to stop his driving the old farm truck when the bull jumped over the barb wire and scared the neighbors silly, the goats getting out and eating their flowers wasnt too bad, but they will go insane if they see another one of my animals anywhere near their front yard.....:0)

If I was a betting man I would put my $20 on gas decreasing to $1.50 since the high prices are going to cause a slow down with a resulting drop in barrel price but then I didnt see the 20% jump in HP stocks coming either......

Red

rorr · March 2005

Yes, and yes, and yes.

But all of that together doesn't equal $3/gallon by this fall "at the latest".

Remember the story of the boy who cried "wolf"?

I'm not saying we'll never see "the wolf" because he is definitely out there, but essentially CONTIUOUSLY since the early '70s, we've been constantly inundated by news that we're all about to run out of oil and prices are gonna skyrocket essentially overnight. Well, they've been wrong for 30 years. I still wonder what the heck happend to that impending ice age that was just around the corner back in the '70s.

And throwing out some more dire predictions like gas will hit $3 by this fall "at the latest" and over $5 within 2 years doesn't help. Instead, most people who remember history will just roll their eyes, mutter 'yeah yeah sure sure' to themselves, and go on to the next impending "crisis" being promoted by the doom'n'gloomers.

Anybody read 'State of Fear'?

logic1 · March 2005

GM buying electric trolley companies and closing them is an urban legend and has been thoroughly debunked both in print and on urban legend sites on line.

On the other hand, there is credible historical evidence demonstrating the Toyoda family's (Toyota's majority owner) significant role in Japan's war effort and Daimler's role in supplying weapons to the Third Reich.

Seeing as you boycott a company on fictional history, I am curious what your response to real history is.

logic1 · March 2005

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050330/automakers_fuel_cells.html?.v=6

kyfdx · March 2005

40 vehicles? Not likely..

I would compare that to the GM EV electric car in California.. Ten years later we have hybrids, and I'm sure that experiment gave automakers some real-world experience...

So, maybe by 2015-2020, the fuel cell thing will result in something practical for the general public..

regards,
kyfdx

logic1 · March 2005

Well, first, 40 vehicles is the test number for the DOE. GM already has fuel cell vehicles on the road and is making fuel cell generators for its own and third party facilities.

What I see as most significant in the article is that Shell Oil now is joining the fray and is apparently working on hydrogen delivery.

The manufacturers need to increase the amount of hydrogen vehicles can carry. But other companies need to figure out how to affordably extract and deliver hydrogen. It is good to see a company as big and important as Shell on board. I hope Exxon joins the fray as well.

kyfdx · March 2005

BMW is also big on hydrogen fuel cells.. That is their main alternative fuel vehicle.. Distribution of fuel will be a big problem, though..

rorr · March 2005

Hmmm, fuel cells to be run on hydrogen. And just where will the participants fill up?

From the article: "Detroit-based GM also announced that Shell Hydrogen LLC will set up five hydrogen refueling stations in Washington, New York, California and along the Eastern seaboard."

Five stations? Let's see, that's ONE in Washington, ONE in New York, ONE in California, leaving TWO to be spread out liberally (pun intended) over the Eastern seaboard.

And the power source used to produce the hydrogen would be.......Beuller? Maybe.....fossil fuels perhaps?

logic1 · March 2005

While most outside of the biz continue to emphasize light rail for mass transit, LA, of all places, has had considerable success developing its bus system.

LA is installing GPS monitors to allow computer staging, manipulating traffic signals, reducing the number and improving the layout of bus stations. Just two years along, the program has already increased bus speed by 25%. The number of bus routes, miles covered, and people using the buses have also been significantly increased. All this for a fraction of the price of light rail.

New York is closely studying LA's success. I understand Chicago is taking note as well. As hybrid and natural gas buses are currently readily avaiable (gm makes both, by the way), there may well be an affordable and quickly employable transit system that many cities and suburban areas can adapt.

yerth10 · March 2005

After signing an agreement to jointly develop Hybrid Vehicles, now the same 2 companies are signing on Fuel Cell Alliance.

I guess they will have some sort of merger, so that Toyota will not be able to overtake them in the short run.

And what will be name of the company
Daimler Motors.

kyfdx · March 2005

http://www.bmwusa.com/hydrogen

logic1 · March 2005

Obviously, the five stations are a test. It would be quite foolish to start out with plans for a million stations.

If the tests work, however, implementation on a wide scale is not a large hurdle. Look how quickly Target and WalMart manage to get their stores on every corner.

You are aware that at the start of the 1920s, gasoline was almost exclusively available at drug and hardware stores, while at the end of the decade there was a fuel station network in most urban areas. Something tells me construction and development techniques have improved and are more efficient than they were 90 years ago.

Extraction is the big question. I think in the long run we will figure out how to harness fusion or will employ bio-extraction techniques.

yerth10 · March 2005

What makes Trains (both Mass & Light Transit) expensive is that the commuter pays for the cost of rails (construction as well as maintenance), whereas for buses, the roads are maintained by taxpayers money and the bus commuter never pays for it in the form of ticket.

After all the bus commuter also pays tax, so wherever the trains are expensive, buses should be used. That should help reduce the traffic, pollution and also the Oil prices.

yerth10 · March 2005

Its much easier & cheaper to burn Hydrogen using IC Engine, rather than FC (Fuel Cell).
But to make it popular, BMW should offer a Bi-Fuel version which can go like 100 miles on Hydrogen and another 200-250 miles on Gasoline. Also it should come in smaller cars just like Toyota Prius Hybrid.

If Hydrogen tank takes too much space, they should offer a wagon / hatchback version which offers more cargo space.

oregonboy · March 2005

Lots of issues remain with hydrogen. Point of interest: the energy density of liquid hydrogen is 2.36 kWh/liter. For gasoline it is 8.76 kWh/liter.

So how big will the fuel tank need to be on the 2010 Hydrogen Hummer?

james

yerth10 · March 2005

Its easier to convert 5 stations to million later.

According to 1 logic, we can easy offer Hydrogen in 1 of the pumps in the existing gas stations.

According to another logic, Hydrogen can be transport efficiently only using a pipeline and not through a truck, so this may put a constraint.

But CNG is becoming popular and if gas prices stay at $2+, expect more conversions to CNG.

kyfdx · March 2005

On the positive side.... emissions are almost non-existent for the end user..

jlawrence01 · March 2005

Having lived in SoCal and Chicago, it seems to me that more people in Chicagoland use the CTA/Metra/Pace than most Los Angeleans. Granted, Metra is heavy rail as it uses the same rail corridors as the Union Pacific and other railroads.

logic1 · March 2005

Exactly.

The road infrastructure is already in place.

Communities adopting buses may want to put hardened cement at the stops, but otherwise, buses work on roads that are already there.

yerth10 · March 2005

energy density of liquid hydrogen is 2.36 kWh/liter.

That depends on the compression level. May be they must have used the older level of 350 bar (5,000 psi), the latest is 700 bar (10,000 psi).

Some companies are working on doubling this to 1,400 bar.

rorr · March 2005

"Hydrogen can be transport efficiently only using a pipeline and not through a truck, so this may put a constraint."

Actually, I would think the opposite is true. Since hydrogen to be useful as a fuel, it must be either liquid (at EXTREMELY low temps; too low to maintain in a pipeline) or at very high pressure (again, too high for a pipeline), I would think the ONLY way to transport hydrogen from wherever the production facility is would be by truck.

kyfdx · March 2005

If you look at the BMW site that I linked above, you'll see that they are planning a flex-fuel H7 that runs on hydrogen or gasoline...

Not exactly entry-level, though....

rorr · March 2005

"On the positive side.... emissions are almost non-existent for the end user.."

Okay, but what about the emissions on the production side?

logic1 · March 2005

I live in Chicago but travel to LA frequently.

Agree, Chicago has much more developed mass transit than LA.

What is interesting, however, is how quickly LA has been able to add riders and transit miles.

At the same time, Chicago's CTA has been coming up with some rather grandiose plans to expand its light rail system. It could be the money would be better spent on improving the existing system and expanding the transit reach with buses.

Chicago and suburbs has a grid road system that meshes well with the heavy rail and light rail. LA may have some lessons to offer on the right direction for expansion.

yerth10 · March 2005

Actually, I would think the opposite is true.

Initially when the volume is low, the truck may be cheaper, but as the volume increases, it has to go through pipeline. Only then it will be able to compete with other fuels like gasoline, CNG.

Whether we use it in liquefied state / gasified state is a big ?.

yerth10 · March 2005

Okay, but what about the emissions on the production side?

The 2 initial sources for Hydrogen are
Natural Gas : Too much increase in prices may impact hydrogen price.

Coal : Supposed to be a dirty route, however it will last for more than a century.

The 2 other sources
Nuclear : Its making a big comeback.

Renewable : Its also a promising candidate.

Today Oil closed at $54.15 (16 cents more).
2004 saw the oil prices breaking through the $42 (previous high) and $55 (record high).
By 2005 end, we will know whether the buddy goes.

oregonboy · March 2005

energy density of liquid hydrogen is 2.36 kWh/liter.

That's liquid hydrogen. Increasing pressure will not effect density in any material way.

james

chrisducati · March 2005

On a recent PBS show on Hydrogen it explained how in Iceland or Greenland, sorry I forget which, they are producing Hydrogen on site at the gas stations. Each station has a small fuel cell type plant. They run electricity and water into the system and get hydrogen. It eliminates the need for transportation of the fuel all together.

larsb · March 2005

all the 7-11 stores in the USA !!

I do think it could be a great idea in certain limited scenarios, but the execution does not seem practical for all the little gas stations in the USA.....

Maybe the larger truck stops could afford something like that, but man o man, that is a hard sell in the USA; asking a corporation to install a little fuel cell plant at all their chain stores...WHEW !!

chrisducati · March 2005

I have never liked buying gas so the higher it goes the more I dislike it.I would much rather spend the money on something else. As for the higher cost I don't think we have much to whine about. My Inlaws live in London and pay almost $8 bucks. When it cost you $175 bucks to fill up each week then we will have something to whine about.

logic1 · March 2005

If it could be done profitably, why not?

US corporations with vision repeatedly amazed the doubters with profitable and incredible fast growth.

Those who do not take up change are left drying in the wind.

20 years ago, you still had Montgomery Wards and Woolworths stores in much of urban US, while WalMart was only just moving from its rural markets to the Suburbs. Wards and Woolworths are distant memories. WalMart is the 2nd largest corporation in the US.

What matters is the technology and how rapidly it can be profitable. If it is, you will see it everywhere faster than you can turn around.

larsb · March 2005

sure, if it can be shown to profitable, it will happen more often....money talks !!!

jlawrence01 · March 2005

How many "little" gas stations are there in Alamo country?

Most are owned by Shell, BP, ExxonMobile, Southland, WalMart, Albertsons, Safeway, Costco, Conoco ...

stevedebi · March 2005

"When did they stop running trolleys in Philly? I was up there for the auto show, and did notice that there were still a lot of tracks in the street, as well as overhead lines. They don't still run some of them, do they?"

Right after GM bought them out and junked the equipment, so the city would buy their trucks... I think it was the late 1940's / early 1950's.

logic1 · March 2005

See my post 120 above. You are repeating an urban myth.

Here is a link to one of the better articles refuting the myth:

http://www.lava.net/cslater/TQOrigin.pdf

In any event, the original myth was premised on GM undercutting street cars so it could sell buses to mass transit companies, not cars to consumers.

As I argue above, even if the myth were true - it is not - modern technology has buses as probably a better option than 60 to 100 year old trolley systems would be were they still around.

What If - Gasoline is $5 a gallon in 2010?

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