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Comments
If a stock broker is so good at investing, why do they work as commission-based salesmen instead of living off of their successful investments?
Fear like that is exactly why there is opportunity.
Understand groupthink, do the opposite.
There is no good reason yet to believe Ford will rise from the ashes this time and double its stock price. In any event, even the company projects greatere losses all the way through next year and into 2008.
They have product in the pipeline, but some of it is rehashed stuff that isn't going to take the world by storm. Compared to other companies that are doing well, or even GM (which now appears on the path to recovery), Ford (and Mercury and Lincoln as well) does not have the volume of new and innovative products coming on line.
Hopefully, they have more plans than what they are revealing now. Bold move, for example, would have been to introduce the Super Chief, rather than put yet another grill variation on the 2008 Super Duty and call it new.
If they make it, buying the stock now will be seen as a shrewd move. But remember also all those investors who bought it in the 20s. They will look for any rise to sell out and take less loss.
My broker does both and his commission income rewards his expertise and what he is worth.
We are both semi or fully retired, about the same age, and cruising on our static incomes. His portfolio is a lot larger than mine, but otherwise they mirror each other.
Like all professionals in most fields, there are a few good ones out there and when one is found, he is worth the 1% annual fee from me.
Certainly, if they get their act together, buying now could be smart...but, unlike Chrysler in the 1980s, the market is different today, with the imports having a solid lock on a large percentage of the auto market, whereas back in the 80s, they barely had 10% or less, so all Chrysler had to do was steal a few sales from GM and Ford and they could grow...plus the cars all had much lower quality back then...
Now, Ford has stiff competition, the imports are well entrenched and they quality, overall is excellent, or at least their reputation for quality is excellent, and Ford's is not...
So, blindly assuming that Ford will recover when there is little in the pipeline may be a big mistake...also, back then they just dumped workers, now they dump them with huge buyouts costing billions, so they may have a longer road to hoe than Chrysler did back then...
Not to be argumentative at all, but why do we think GM is on the path to Recovery? What has changed over there, and what product have they put out that's taking the world by storm lately either? The SUVs are nice looking, but what else? And don't tell me the Lucerne......
Chevy Impala looks awful good for the price too.
Just about any of the Cadillacs.
Pontiac G6 is a heck of a car for the money.
How about the Solstice or the Saturn Sky?
Need more?
It's very rare that I see an Impala or G6 in this area without that little barcode in the back window...
Yawn...... An improvement over hideous.
Chevy Impala looks awful good for the price too.
Still a value car, but has a cramped back seat. The old one was actually better.
Just about any of the Cadillacs.
Agreed - but they've had those before, when they were going down. I'm looking for why they're coming back.
Pontiac G6 is a heck of a car for the money.
Oh please! It doesn't even sell as well as the 20 year old Grand Am it replaced! Oprah couldn't give them away. They are a value alright - to the rental fleets.
How about the Solstice or the Saturn Sky?
Nice niche cars - so is the Ford GT. Limited application. I like the Sky best.
Need more?
Got more?
Exactly - along with the LaCross and the Lucerne, and the LaMinivan from Buick.
You don't have to like their new full-size SUVs, but they do look fresh enough that the public is buying them in greater numbers than expected. You may not prefer Chevys, but the Impala handily outsells the 500/Montego/Freestyle combined, and a new one is in the works. Malibu is about to be replaced with something that can actually compete with Fusion. Ford has nothing to go up against the Aveo or HHR. The Cobalt is a much newer design than the Focus, and gives the consumer the choice of a hot engine. The GT is dead now, but the Corvette is about to introduce a 600 hp version that will sell for $100,000 or less.
Again, you may not like the G6, but you can have it as a four door, hardtop convertible or coupe. The Solstice and Vibe are both products that Ford has nothing with which to compete. Saturn is revamping its entire line, and the Aura and Sky are an indication of what to expect. The Buick Enclave will replace both the Rendevous and Terraza in a few months. Even though it is a bigger vehicle, it will compete directly with both the Edge and MKX,while offering similar mileage, 3rd row seating and more creative styling. The Cadillac lineup is a bright spot for sure and covers far more bases than Lincoln will even years from now.
I have never been drawn to GM vehicles. It really irks me that a company in shambles GM was in can be looking at profitability next year, while Ford still dithers with trying to stop the hemorrhaging by every means but with a great variety of new products. Ford has the designers and engineers to make the best products. They can certainly design more appealing vehicles than Toyota. Unfortunately, it is directed by boobs.
Where is the B class car? Why were the Focus, Ranger, Crown Vic, Freestar, etc. allowed to get so tired and still have nothing coming for replacements? The 500? What a missed opportunity. Ford is finally jumping on the crossover bandwagon, but that field is already crowded. Why didn't they fast forward the Fairlane? And all the money wasted on half-baked updates to Windstar/Freestar, Ranger, Grand Marquis, Explorer, etc. Ford still looks like a company like Studebaker, Packard, American Motors, etc. doing updates on the cheap and hoping no one will notice the ruse.
I never thought I'd say this, but GM has far more likeable cars than Ford at this time. I covet several of them. There isn't a single F/L/M model I would buy right now. And there's nothing I know of in the pipe that interests me either. And I disagree that Ford has the designers and engineers to make the best products, unless you're talking about Japanese engioneers at Mazda or Swedish engoneers from Volvo. Ford remember got rid of a slew of (white) engineers and designers in the last few years. All their cars now are modified Mazdas and Volvos. Who needs that? And the Mazda and Volvo versions get to market a whole lot quicker. Witness the Mazda CX or whatever their new crossover is. Been out for what, 6 or 9 months, meanwhile the Edge and MK whatever are still no shows.
I am seriously beginning to fear the end is near for Ford. I saw an old friend over the weekend. He is driving an 01 Ranger with 42,000 miles. He had to replace the engine (at his expense) after the warantee was out. He says he will "NEVER buy another Ford." All this time to catch up and make quality cars and they're still shipping crap that blows up in 40000 miles.
One of the reasons I've been buying "domestics" is to support the American economy and workers. Seriously. I have 2 Lincolns and 2 Fords. There is now no reason to buy a F/L/M product as many are made in Mexico and others in Canada. The designers and engineers are mostly Japanese or Swedish (or English) so that does no good either. I'm getting to the point where buying an American built Honda or Toyota appeals more to me because at least they are made by Americans. Wixom is gone. The Taurus plant in Atlanta is gone. Does anyone else hear a "Giant Sucking sound"?
I was at a focus grou run by Ford a couple years ago. Besides cars, they were showing ideas for features and little gadgets and such that Fords lack compared to others (eg - a retractable cover for cargo areas in the Nav/Expy etc). There was not a single idea that looked like it had been designed by someone over the age of 12. Pathetic. This is also where I saw the Lincolns that should be being built, but have been cancelled.
I saw that Mulally has "approved the new Lincoln FLAGSHIP, the MK S." If that's the flagship vehicle for Lincoln, then the fleet is about to go under.
BTW, my life is controlled by boobs too, just not the same boobs you're talking about.
And speaking of the Mazda CX7 being out before the Ford products, the CX9 with 3rd row seating will be out momentarily as well. Oh, and the new S80 comes well in advance of that "new Lincoln flagship" MKS. Oh, and teh Volvo will offer a V8 option. Just beating a dead horse here. Sorry.
The Ford Crown Victoria and Mercury Grand Marquis are my other choices, but a Chevrolet Impala, Buick Lucerne, or even a Chrysler 300 Touring or Dodge Charger are more appealing.
The MKS as Lincoln's flagship? Feh, this thing wouldn't even be considered a sloop in Lexus or Mercedes' fleet. The MKS is an imitation Acura RL. If I want an Acura, I'll get the real deal and not a fake. Looks like John Wilkes Booth is in Lincoln's house.
What ? I've been gone for a few weeks got a link ?????
Rocky
Ford can't even figure out how to market something with the heritage and recognition factor of the Thunderbird. People might walk into a Ford showroom just to oggle a GT on display. Did they think the half-hearted update of the Sport Trac would accomplish the same thing??
So the bottom line in my eyes is they are going through some tough times right now, but the future appears to be brighter. I hope theis new CEO, doesn't ruin Ford, worse than they are now.
Rocky
I see good things down the road for Ford once they get past the excess capacity and overhead costs. Fields and Mulally understand that the products are the key and that they need to do better in terms of design, features and performance. They'll add features and models to get new customers instead of cutting features and adding incentives to sell more vehicles. They understand that it's all about profit, not market share, and you don't get more profit by decontenting and overproducing. Fields already sent the F150 team back to the drawing board because the new design didn't go far enough.
The problem is it will take at least a couple more years for the fruits of their labor to appear. Remember the Edge and MKZ were designed and "in the can" so to speak before Fields and Mulally took over. Even so they're a small step in the right direction.
Rocky
And Rocky..a correction. The Continental Concept is old, not new. Close to five years old. They could have used the Town Car chassis to have brought it to market by 2005. The 2007s are here, and I have heard no one say the Continental is still under consideration. The MKS took its place.
If Ford had brought some of their concepts to market even using old architecture, thay'd be far better off now. The 427 (instead of the 500), the Forty-Nine (instead of the 2 seater T-bird), the Mercury Meta One, the Capri revival, the original styling for the 07 Aviator (which didn't look like an Edge at all), the NaviCross, the Adrenalin (rather than the original Sport Trac), the Fairlane fast-tracked instead of wasting time putting makeup on the Windstar (which wan't even competitive at its introduction), naming the Fusion "Taurus," bringing a B car here, fast-tracking the Hurricane...
The ideas have all been there, but they were all systematically rejected. The Continental was rejected. It was pathological. Now Fields says he knows the new designs must be polarizing, or they will never generate the sales like the original Taurus, the Mustang, the 97 F150 (a BIG direction change for Ford). Dodge came back from truckdom death with the in-your-face, polarizing RAM. Now, Ford, do it too, slow learners you may be.
okay, thanx for correcting me.
Rocky
Funny you mention that. I saw a T-Bird today and thought "they might have made something of that car, had they advertised to their heritage." I don't think the folks at FoMoCo know what their heritage is.
I did just read in the same MT I quoted earlier today that the only vehicle Lincoln has in the pipe besides the mks is the people-mover, which is a dolled-up fairlane. MT didn't think this will save the bacon either and I agree. Is THIS the future of Lincoln? A fwd v6 powered flagship and a fancy box on wheels?
MT also speculated strongly that Mercury will go away soon after Lincoln gets these new products. After all, there is nothing in the pipe for Mercury, save an upscale redesign of the Mariner. Also mentioned that Ford is trying to sell all it's European PAG brands, perhaps including Volvo. I doubt that though cause then Ford will have no future platforms and no engineers to design them.
I wonder if Mulally will address any of these Lincoln plans soon enough to do something positive to change them. THere is no one in the industry that I've read who thinks Lincoln has any clue how to define itself, or save itself from oblivion.
Oh and Anne Stevens is quoted in there as saying basically Ford is hopelessly slow in getting product developed due to layers and layers of management BS.
And you missed the point, Grinch. The complaint was that Ford was producing these great concepts (in your case we won't count the MKS concept) like the Continental, Navicross, etc. but never producing them or when they were introduced they were significantly watered down (Zephyr). The fact that they're bringing the Fairlane to market almost unchanged is a sign that they're willing to be bold again and take more chances and bring the concept cars to production.
In other words, this makes a Continental concept type car for Lincoln much more of a probability where it had 0 chance a year ago. Unfortunately that will probably take at least 3 years.
Ford family members who have "no show" jobs there (and no talent, obviously, as well) to insignificant positions in the company, he may save the company. After PAG is all sold off, including Volvo, and all that is left is Mazda, Ford & Lincoln, I'm wondering just what he has saved??? They'll be so small, they'll be about as significant as Subaru, even if they're very very good.
After buying my first (AND LAST) Volvo back in the spring this year, while I know nothing about Lincoln, I wouldn't go anywhere near it right now! I've owned Fords years ago... and I am really surprised to be saying now that Ford used to be EXCELLENT, in comparison to Volvo today. Did Volvo nosedive because of Ford? Who really knows... all I do know is Volvo's TOTAL inability and incompetence at diagnosing and repairing their vehicles - I HAVE SEEN THIS FOR MYSELF SIX TIMES ALREADY! It used to be really frustrating, having a very expensive vehicle in the dealership so much for the SAME problem... now that I know just HOW incompetent those techs really are, I have learned how to enjoy the absurd amusement feature of watching Volvo techs repeatedly prove themselves TOTALLY incompetent!
I'm going for LEMON status (AGAIN, I might add), and I place FULL trust in those corporate Volvo techs in getting me there!!
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061104/AUTO01/611040351/1148-
Rocky
1) Ford allegedly realizes that their marketing stinks and they're finally ready to throw some money at the brand.
2) Bean counters are still cheapening the brand.
3) Industry talking heads think Ford still has no clear direction for the brand.
I really hope Ford makes good use of their marketing dollars, that the company realizes quality and design must take precedence, and that Horbury is right in that the brand does have identity within FoMoCo.
Thanks for posting the article, rockylee.
No problem
Rocky
4 *NEW* models due by the end of THIS year to take on Cadillac, BMW and LEXUS???
- Well first, I thought Lincoln was supposed to compete with Buick? Have they changed direction AGAIN??
- Second, 4 NEW models?? Hoo Ha, what BS. They're talking about:
the MKZ - is that NEW??? A bigger thirstier engine does not a NEW car make does it?
the Long Navigator. They count that? PUHLEASE.
the MKX - yep, that's new and ...
WAIT A MINUTE, the article doesn't mention any more vehicles. I count THREE, and only 1 is really new (the MKX) but it simply replaces the Aviator. So WHERE is the FOURTH NEW VEHICLE? I'll bet they're referring to the Navigator? Well, it has better seats and more (MUCH MORE) chrome. Smae engine etc though. SO does Ford define one new vehicle as a bigger engine and another as more chrome?
- Next, the analysts are right as MT and C&D have already pointed out, the Navigator and the MKX are not competitive in their markets. (I haven't seen any comparo tests against the MKZ. Has anyone? And what cars would MT say compare it against?)
- That leaves the Z. And it is becoming a reasonable facsimile of a success and the addition of AWD and the 3.5 V6 will help. But Ford makes it sound like it's selling like a Mustang. They expected to sell 30,000 a year. They've sold 26,000 THRU October, which extrapolates to 31,200 for the year. WOW, thats about 4% better than they guessed. BIG DEAL. And Allen, correct me if I'm wrong but didn't they sell about 56,000 LSes in it's first full year? Correct me again if necessary but isn't that almost TWICE as many vehicles? And more expensive vehicles to boot.
Al Giombetti, president of Ford, lincoln and Mercury brands said "The great product that we've been talking about for the past couple of years has finally arrived," . I say "HUH? Where?" A bigger Navigator with comfortable seats and a MKX that costs $10000 more than the Edge and tests out worse than a Suzuki??? THAT's their great product? Come on.
And they're bragging about conquest sales from Toyota and Honda. I say How many? 2, 3? That would allow them to brag. And the Z buyers are "36% more likely to be women". Ah, statistics. That could mean that before there were 9 women buyers, now there are 12 or 13. And that assumes that more women buyers is a GOOD thing? I say "Where did the male buyers go, and why doesn't Lincoln care that they're gone?"
So we've got 3 (not 4) "new" models this year (really just 1, but I am the Grinch). What about the future? Well, gee whiz, the article says Peter Whoreberry *hinted* that new designs *may* be unveiled soon. WHOA, take that to the bank, eh Rocky? (Can u say fancy box-on-wheels?) And BTW, Rock, looks like u got a little more time to decide on the MKS as your next car: "Horbury said ... the brand's transformation will be complete when its new flagship, the MKS, goes into production in 2009." Going into production in 2009 means it's a 2010 model. And one thing I learned from my old man is "don't buy the first model year of a new car." So 2011 is it, Rock. Whatcha gonna drive til then? A (Bentley) Continental?
So there you have it. the Z, the X and a long Navigator. Then the "flagship v6-mobile" and MAYBE something else which hasn't even been shown yet and must be released BEFORE the S because the S ends the transformation.
They say "No news is good news." But in this case, I beg to disagree. THis news IS no news and it is bad news for Lincoln fans. What it's really saying is that Lincoln thinks these non-competitive cars plus the already-panned MKS and maybe a fancy box-on-wheels represents the 'transformation' of Lincoln. Unless the *HINT* means something else is on the way, Lincoln is thru. And even if something else IS on the way, it can't be any big deal since Whoreberry still says the MKS is the flagship.
Ugh.
Where????
Yes, they did. But 30,000 is all they NEED to sell to make a nice profit. And don't forget the 26,000 was with the Zephyr - 3.0L engine and no AWD.
Lincoln has already made more profit with the Zephyr in one year than it made with the LS in 7.
And they're bragging about conquest sales from Toyota and Honda. I say How many? 2, 3?
45% conquest sales is quite a feat for a new domestic vehicle in it's first year. How many would it need before you would consider it significant? 90%?
Seriously, George - I think you just need to forget about Lincoln for a few years. They can't make the kind of turnaround you expect overnight. It took many years of neglect to kill Lincoln and it will take many more to build it back. Right now they're just treading water to stay alive.
And unless you can point to accounting figures, please stop with the money losing stories about the LS. There is NO WAY they've made more money already from the Z than 7 years of LS sales. Be serious. Jim stopped by here for gawd's sake and said the LS did NOT lose money while he was there and that was for 3 years. Although, given they cut their manufacturing costs by about, what, 3000%, by moving to MEXICO thereby screwing their American workers, I'm sure they're making TONS of money off the Mazda clones. How come the dam things are still so expensive???
45% from "other automakers". IOW, GM and Chrysler. I'm assuming that does not include Ford and Mercury but it very well might as statistics put out by marketing depts are usually full of lies and distortions. My point was, they claim conquest sales "... including Honda and Toyota" First, well whoopdeedo. And second, gimme a number. 20% of Z buyers used to drive a Honda? Or .00002%? It's just mktg BS. And to claim "it's exceedong all expectations ..." again whoopdeedo. By 4% ASSUMING Nov and Dec sales are equal to previous 10 months.
If I want a FWD Ford, I would get the Fusion, or Mazda6. If I want an AWD or FWD larger car, and don't mind buying a plain (really plain) looking car, I suppose the FiveHundred is the ticket. Closest thing to a value in RWD luxury in the Vic or Grand Marque. A little too wide and large for driving around here, but at least a great value.
Where are the Continental, and the Mark cars? I know, on the used car lots.
-Loren
When Lincoln came out with the 03 Navigator - they showed the power fold seats, the power running boards and the power rear hatch, etc. It sold me, I bought one.
But again, maybe the cars are best left unshown.....?
Adding the Zephyr/MKZ as an afterthought made it look like an afterthought. The LS had no Ford version, other than the T-bird which looked completely different (and which was also expensive and doomed). The Fusion will very soon need the 3.5 to be competitive (all its main competition already offers that size), so the MKZ will need the 3.7 for differentiation. Wait...that's the MKS engine.
BTW, you cannot add the 06 Zephyr sales and the 07 MKZ sales together for a yearly total. The first year LS sales were based on the first model year. It sold well, without a bunch of incentives and for a higher unit price than the Zephyr. Sure, Ford can make money on the Zephyr by taking a Fusion and dressing it up a bit and then charging thousands more. But it cheapens the brand, the image and reputation. If it helps Lincoln limp along toward something better, so be it. But let's not pretend it is world class stuff.
Killing the Lincoln Fairlane is good news. Tou know they were not going to give it a totally unique look and body (like Nissan did with the Murano and the Infiniti FX, which even though they share architecture look nothing alike and appeal to different people). Until they can make it a Lincoln and not an uplevel Ford, save the development dollars for something better.