Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow?

avalon02wh · October 2006

From what I have been able to find, peak electrical demand stays high well into the night. If people come home and plug in the cars at 5PM that will hurt the system. Most likely they will need to put the car on a timer that charges the battery in the wee hours on the morning to avoid the peak demand. AC systems probably run well into the night to cool buildings back down.

http://www.state.mn.us/mn/externalDocs/Commerce/Relationship_between_solar_gener- ation_and_electric_demand_111003025625_Solarpaper11-03.pdf

I am sorry to see that look at this issue as an US vs. Them. Maybe we (Midwest and the plain states) should join with Canada, Eh!

Why do you think that E85 is pushing us to a bigger environmental mess? As compared to ____? (oil sands mining, flaring of gas from oil production, oil spills, contaminated ground and surface water from gasoline and mtbe)

gagrice · October 2006

Why do you think that E85 is pushing us to a bigger environmental mess? As compared to ____? (oil sands mining, flaring of gas from oil production, oil spills, contaminated ground and surface water from gasoline and mtbe)

All important issues for sure. Why add to the mess with dumping huge amounts of fertilizers onto the land that leeches into the rivers. It is creating a huge problem in the Gulf of Mexico. The truth is that farmers are producing more, being subsidized more, and still going broke. Growing corn and soy beans in the current manner is not good for the land and is not helping the farmer. I own a farm in Minnesota. Most of it is left go back to native pasture. I could have someone farm it and maybe make a buck or two. More than likely just spend more than I would take in. If you have lived in the Midwest for a while you saw the last rush for ethanol in the 80s. Most of the old ethanol plants are shut down or torn down. We the US taxpayer subsidized those plants. The only ones that made money back then were companies like Verasun and ADM.

It is quite simple. They come in convince the local township to give them land, power and water. In exchange they provide jobs. Then when ethanol goes bust they bail out. Leaving the town with an eyesore and inflated land values to contend with. Maybe the mayor and council got rich. I would like to see a study on the 90+ towns that bought into the last ethanol boom.

jkinzel · October 2006

Since a lot of the anti-E85 people do not want to see corn used for fuel, should we also convert the tobacco farms to food crops?

Its not what they are using; its what they are using it for.

The issue is not about using food crops for fuel, the issue is the fact that E85 is being shoved down our throats by the big AGs and the auto industry.

We are loosing 25% energy with E85 when we could be gaining as much as 30% or more energy with Bio diesel. Considering the effort and energy used to make ethanol, would it not make more since to get more bang for the buck?

By the way, if anyone comes up with a way to make fuel out of brussel sprouts, Im behind you 100%. Not much good for anything else.

gagrice · October 2006

if anyone comes up with a way to make fuel out of brussel sprouts

Good idea, also the cucumbers that aren't needed for pickles.

I wonder if biodiesel made from soybeans yields more BTUs per acre than ethanol from corn.

avalon02wh · October 2006

"The issue is not about using food crops for fuel, the issue is the fact that E85 is being shoved down our throats by the big AGs and the auto industry."

"Various renewable fuels can be used to meet the requirements of RFS program, including ethanol and biodiesel. While the RFS program provides the certainty that a minimum amount of renewable fuel will be used in the United States; more can be used if fuel producers and blenders choose to do so."
http://www.greencarcongress.com/biodiesel/

It appears that ethanol is just one option. I should also point out that we consumers have the option of using E10, E85 (FFV) or regular gasoline.

The auto industry is, in my view, making a big mistake in not taking advantage of the higher octane in E85. The current set of products just do not cut the mustard.

"...higher-octane fuels allow for a higher compression ratio - this means less space in a cylinder on its combustion stroke, hence a higher cylinder temperature which improves efficiency according to Carnot's theorem, along with fewer wasted hydrocarbons (therefore less pollution and wasted energy), bringing higher power levels coupled with less pollution overall because of the greater efficiency."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline

I would not agree that we lose energy when creating E85. Recent studies from independent researchers are showing that ethanol is somewhat positive. I do agree that biodiesel is better. It is unfortunate that more biodiesel plants are not being built. A big part of the problem actually rests with the users. If we do not demand the product companies will not produce it.

One last point about energy, it is not the Btu to Btu ratio that counts, what counts is the cost of the raw material. For example, it may be cost effective to convert cheaper natural gas to gasoline even if you lose a few btus in the process.

gagrice · October 2006

It is unfortunate that more biodiesel plants are not being built.

They are actually building a quite a few around the country. We invested in one company that cannot keep up with demand for biodiesel. They mainly sell to the Bay area of CA. The difference is that biodiesel does get government incentives as does ethanol. It is not forced on us to the point it becomes a cost burden. Much of the last price run up in gasoline was a result of the ethanol mix mandate. Refiners and distributors were scrambling to find sources for mixing with gas. Ethanol is plentiful in the midwest. Nearly non existent on the west & east coasts. It cannot be transported through pipelines so every gallon has to be trucked or barged to the point it is needed. It is also mixed at the last point before delivery. It is wrought with negatives that are not outweighed by the positives, IMO.

jae5 · October 2006

Thanks avalon, I was thinking the same thing in terms of the battery strain, grid strain, recharging time and the like.

In terms of the electric vehicle I would constantly be looking at the charge gauge on the trip home. I start my day pretty early so there is not much traffic, but coming home it can get hectic!! Add to this the winter time slow-crawl, and it would be hairy. Defroster going, as well as the heater, sitting in traffic - these are not conditions that batteries like. At the company I used to work we had a few electric vehicle projects, though they were all in warm-weather climes. Even then they were getting hammered as heat is a battery killer too.

In recharging, no one discussing the effects on the power grid, recharge cycle, increased electric bills and the like. If we continue to have summers like we had the past two years, the current grids can't keep up, so add in loads from recharging autos and... :surprise:

What I would like to see are real viable solutions from the Ethanol / electric vehicle standpoints, weighing all the pros and cons.

snakeweasel · October 2006

In terms of the electric vehicle I would constantly be looking at the charge gauge on the trip home.

I don't know if that would be that much of an issue unless your daily commute is near the range of the battery. For me a EV that has a 50 mile range would be more than enough, even if the cold (or hot) weather reduced the range by 50% I would still be getting around with plenty of energy to spare.

In recharging, no one discussing the effects on the power grid, recharge cycle, increased electric bills and the like.

Well recharging would be done at night when electric use is down, as for increased electric bills that will be more than offset by lower gas bills.

Personally I would like to see some system that uses solar panels on the roof of the garage to charge a battery pack or capacitor in the garage that the EV can be plugged into at night, there by reducing your fuel costs that much more.

If we continue to have summers like we had the past two years, the current grids can't keep up, so add in loads from recharging autos

While I can't say for where you are at here in the chicago area we have had a cooler than normal summer. So I say lets keep getting those summers :shades:

odie6l · October 2006

I think it's kind of funny now in our area (near Hershey, PA) since the farmers are now harvesting all their corn, we are NOT hearing very much about E85 vehicles any more. We have only 1 station down in Lancaster that carriers it (the only station in ALL of Central PA), so there really is not that much of a demand even around the State Capital.

Odie
Odie's Carspace

kw5kw · October 2006

such as steam power.

Water is plentiful, and we now have the technology to be able to use plain recycled garbage (Magazines, newspapers, shredded documents that are processed with some sort of plastic covering that would burn very hot for example.) as fuel.

With modern technology and materials we should be able to have a much higher pressures attained or attainable than in the previous endeavors with steam.

Pollution would not be as great, as one item would only be water--pure water. The burnt items (newsprint, etc) would be basically recycled trees; i.e.: wood, another very natural fuel.)

After all, nuclear powerplants operate by heat producing steam; steam which powers the submarines, aircraft carriers of our modern navy and...and steam powers the nuclear powerplants as well.

It might not be as performance minded as we'd like, being accustomed to the high output of gasoline and slightly less of diesel, but it will still allow us to use the automobile for transportation, and not at some distant time in the future force us back into the mode of transportation that the human race had known for all of the centuries previous to the twentieth.

:surprise:

rockylee · October 2006

1-Nuclear Powerplant, produces enough hydrogen to power "X" amount of cars a yr. (It's a very significant #)

Rocky

rockylee · October 2006

Stations may have to halt sales of fuel

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061019/BUSINESS01/610190316/10- 14/BUSINESS01

:surprise:

Rocky

gagrice · October 2006

Very interesting indeed. Same reason Toyota is balking on FFVs. Corrosion of anything aluminum. Good thing FFVs can run on regular gas.

A move by the nation's largest product-safety laboratory to remove its approval of ethanol fuel pumps has frozen the rollout of new ethanol stations and cast doubt on the legal status of the roughly 1,000 stations already selling E85 fuel.

Without certification from Underwriters Laboratories, the company that tests thousands of products for safety and manages the "UL" symbol, state officials and ethanol industry executives say E85 pumps may run afoul of state and local fire codes that require "listed" equipment for pumping fuel. A fire marshal in Columbus, Ohio, ordered two E85 pumps shut down last week because of a lack of UL approval and Michigan officials are wrestling with the question as well.

Mark Griffin, president of the Michigan Petroleum Association, which represents 1,500 stores, said state officials were still wrestling with the question of whether the pumps at Michigan's 26 E85 stations still met state standards, and new pumps wouldn't be available until UL clears up the confusion, which "could be a matter of weeks. It could be months or years."

"Somebody asked whether this thing is heading toward a train wreck," Griffin said. "Well, I don't know."

In a statement, UL said it had no reports of problems with E85 systems, but withdrew its certification due to concerns about how ethanol can corrode parts of the fueling system.

rockylee · October 2006

gagrice, as you already know pal I like to add topics to the forums pal. I try to read every post I can most of the time when I'm on my days off from work.

Rocky

gagrice · October 2006

This may be a blessing. It will make the price of ethanol come down and gas with it. Much of the last gas price run up was refiners looking for sources of ethanol to mix with gas. To fulfill the mandate for 2.97% ethanol in all unleaded gas.

Keep reading and posting interesting auto stuff.

rockylee · October 2006

Keep reading and posting interesting auto stuff.

Will do my best when time permits.

Rocky

stevedebi · October 2006

"The Freestyle was intended as one of the Bold Move vehicles to get them on a turn-around path, but it turned out to be little more than Bold Talk. The next Bold Move will probably be to Mexico."

You might better explain that to Indonesia, where the forest fires are making it impossible for planes to land.

You are proposing burning items that are carbon based and will produce a lot of CO2 and other pollutants, including ash.

jae5 · October 2006

I'm out in aurora now, so this past summer has been cooler than last year. But my thing is sitting in traffic to/from work, which is very hairy on the way home. I'm looking at a minimum 38 mile loop. So a range of 50 miles would not do it for me. I'd like more than a 10 mile cushion. Most likely this would be a summer car for me, like a toy to drive on good / not so bad days. In the winter I'd probably park the thing.

Again, there are things about an EV that I really don't like and need these things figured out and presented in an all-around manner. Meaning, just don't give me the good, give me the con as well. Myself and others would be more accepting of it if alternatives were presented in that manner.

kw5kw · October 2006

Where you have uncontrolled combustion, i.e.: the forest fires, building fires, &c. one will have polution. I'm not advocating uncontrolled fireboxes as in the past but very specific, very conrolled combustion.

stevedebi · October 2006

"I'm not advocating uncontrolled fireboxes as in the past but very specific, very conrolled combustion."

What do you propose to do with the by products?

rorr · October 2006

"I'm not advocating uncontrolled fireboxes as in the past but very specific, very conrolled combustion."

We have that already. It's called the Internal Combustion Engine.

And the efficiency (BTU's in the fuel converted to forward motion) is SUBSTANTIALLY higher than burning a fuel (whether it is gasoline, wood pulp, paper, or recycled cow farts) in a steam boiler (particularly if you are trying to have a boiler in a closed system driving a generator to produce on-board electricity to drive a motor).

There's a big reason that locomotives converted from coal-burning steam power to big diesel electrics. It's called progress.

avalon02wh · October 2006

The timing of this announcement is interesting indeed. A person has to wonder why now. Were the UL folks asleep at the switch? Ethanol has been around for a long time. The properties of the fuel are well known.

"Ethanol-only cars were sold in Brazil in significant numbers between 1980 and 1995; between 1983 and 1988, they accounted for over 90% of the sales."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_in_Brazil

I have worked with another large standardization group called NSF. In general they, like UL, seem to do a decent job. However, I have noticed that as they have gotten larger they become bureaucratic and a bit self serving. Not saying this is the case with UL, but boy, the timing just seems a bit odd.

In the end, I don't think it is going to make a big difference.

gagrice · October 2006

I think the issue is Ethanol and aluminum. It seems that many fuel nozzles are made from aluminum for lightness. If E85 is going to corrode those parts it would seem they need a different nozzle. I have no idea about the internal parts of a gas pump.

It does seem strange that they have had E85 for several years. Maybe UL is just slow on the up take. Or maybe the folks at the various fire depts were not doing their job all this time. Just letting it slide. After all it is big business in the midwest. We still only have ONE commercial E85 pump in all of CA. If it gets shut down, who will notice.

avalon02wh · October 2006

"t is quite simple. They come in convince the local township to give them land, power and water. In exchange they provide jobs. Then when ethanol goes bust they bail out. Leaving the town with an eyesore and inflated land values to contend with. Maybe the mayor and council got rich. I would like to see a study on the 90+ towns that bought into the last ethanol boom."

I would agree that towns, local and state governments often roll out the red carpet for businesses. Call centers and auto plants are good examples. Some work, some go bust.

The big difference this time around is that oil and gasoline prices will remain high enough that ethanol will be able to make it in the long run (E10, not so much of the E85). Demand for the oil from the USA, China, Europe and India will keep prices higher. Supply is still fine but we will pay more.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_Prices_1861_2006.jpg

I am guessing that most people saw the recent headlines
"Demand for gasoline surges as prices take a dive"
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2006-10-19-driving-more-usat_x.h- tm
and the OPEC decision to try and cut output by 1.2 MBD. This should stop oil prices from dropping. We may even see an increase in gasoline prices back up into the $2.50 range.

On a side note: You mentioned water. In my view, water or lack of, will be the single biggest issue that slows or stops construction of new ethanol plants after the current expansion. Some plants are breaking ground before they have secured water permits - a big problem. In one example I am aware of, a plant assumed the city wells they would inherit had the needed 1,500 gallon per minute capacity. Nope. The wells were only capable of half that rate. The oil sand projects in Canada seem to be running into water issues too.

gagrice · October 2006

You seem to have a practical take on the big picture regarding ethanol. It is not all roses. I agree the ethanol mandate will maintain the need for ethanol. I just would rather they did more research into using sources other than corn before they build all the plants that are only able to accept corn as a feedstock. It looks like we are still several years from using switchgrass or whatever other waste product.

gagrice · October 2006

I was just pricing out a new Ford Crew Cab PU. The price to add flex fuel is $895. They are both 5.4L V8 engines. I guess Ford cannot afford to just give that option to the green buyer. So much for selling many of them. Pay more money to lose money.

gagrice · October 2006

Ethanol shortages have helped push up gas prices and generate huge profits for producers (not farmers). July 12thNational Academy of Science report confirms zFacts' analysis and much more. Bio-diesel has some merit, ethanol is an expensive loser

http://zfacts.com/p/35.html

http://zfacts.com/p/60.html

gagrice · October 2006

Excerpts from the NY Times, June 25, 2006

Farmers are seeing little of the huge profits ethanol refiners like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) are banking. ... The ethanol explosion began in the 1970's and 1980's, when ADM's chief executive, Dwayne O. Andreas, was a generous campaign contributor and well-known figure in the halls of Congress who helped push the idea of transforming corn into fuel.
Given the glut in corn, the early strategy of Mr. Andreas was to drum up interest in ethanol on the state level among corn farmers and persuade Washington to provide generous tax incentives. But in 1990, when Congress mandated the use of a supplement in gasoline to help limit emissions, ADM lost out to the oil industry, which won the right to use the cheaper methyl tertiary butyl ether, or MTBE, derived from natural gas, to fill the 10 percent fuel requirement.
Past Scandal
Adding to its woes, ADM was marred by scandal in 1996 when several company executives, including one of the sons of Mr. Andreas, were convicted of conspiracy to fix lysine markets. The company was fined $100 million. Since then, ADM's direct political clout in Washington may have waned a bit but it still pursues its policy preferences through a series of trade organizations, notably the Renewable Fuels Association. ...
But ADM has not lost interest in promoting ethanol among farm organizations, politicians and the news media. It is by far the biggest beneficiary of more than $2 billion in government subsidies the ethanol industry receives each year, via a 51-cent-a-gallon tax credit given to refiners and blenders that mix ethanol into their gasoline. ADM will earn an estimated $1.3 billion from ethanol alone in the 2007 fiscal year, up from $556 million this year, said David Driscoll, a food manufacturing analyst at Citigroup. ...
ADM has huge production facilities that dwarf those of its competitors. With seven big plants, the company controls 1.1 billion gallons of ethanol production, or about 24 percent of the country's capacity. ADM can make more than four times what VeraSun, ADM's closest ethanol rival, can produce.
Last year, spurred by soaring energy prices, the ethanol lobby broke through in its long campaign to win acceptance outside the corn belt, inserting a provision in the Energy Policy Act of 2005 that calls for the use of 5 billion gallons a year of ethanol by 2007, growing to at least 7.5 billion gallons in 2012. The industry is now expected to produce about 6 billion gallons next year. ...

PF_Flyer · October 2006

Since we're moving away from these huge discussions, and this one has become a catch-all for anything E85, let's close this one down and start up new discussions as issues arise.

From scanning the E85 news today, let's start with this one:

Problems with the Pumps Using E85?

Please feel free to create new discussions as addtional E85 related issues or questions arise. What we want to avoid is trying to talk about every issue in one discussion.

Thanks for your help in making this group a great source of information and discussion about E85.

Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow?

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