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Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow?

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Comments

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    E85 is not even an option for 95% of the population. There is only one station selling it in CA, OR & WA. That is not the biggest obstacle. Who is going to buy E85 that gets 30% less MPG than regular gas? The very best price in the most pro E85 state MN, is anywhere from even to 40 cents cheaper. The only ones using E85 are government agencies. It ain't their money they are wasting.

    Plus and the biggest Plus is it takes nearly as much fossil fuel to make ethanol as you get back. So tell me how you are going to save any oil by using ethanol?

    Not everything that Congress mandates is good for the country.
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    I appreciate that you are a German car fan (you may have guessed from my handle that I am, too), but with all due respect, the topic isn't about the cars that we personally like or don't like to drive, but the likely political, economic and market issues that will impact alternative fuel usage in the US.

    I realize that because diesels have benefited from signicant improvements as of late, a turbocharged diesel compared to a normally aspirated gas engine of similar displacement will likely produce similar acceleration with superior fuel economy, that European ULSD fuel burns far cleaner than the diesel of old, that the noisy idle issue isn't quite it once was, and that glow plugs are a thing of the past.

    But that isn't the issue. Here's the basic point:

    -Americans currently don't like diesels. They buy very few of them.

    -We've seen one study that projects that this situation is not likely to change by much. They may gain a bit in popularity, but no one with expertise in the business is expecting them to play a dominant role in the US car market.

    -Americans remember diesels as being dirty, slow, sooty and a bit weird. Even if that isn't true any more, the consumer would still need to hear the gospel, and then change their habits. And as noted above, no one is expecting these habits to change very much.

    All I am saying is this -- if someone is going to tout the benefits of biodiesel, the country won't realize those benefits unless people use it. It may be the greatest thing since sliced bread, but if nobody wants to touch it, it's not going anywhere.

    You are clearly a car guy, so you tend to focus on the product and get excited about its prospects because you personally like the product. However, the American consumer is largely indifferent to those things, and is going to choose a fuel and powerplant based upon other considerations.

    So again, I do not see biodiesel playing much of a role unless the fuel is available at a reasonable price and in sufficient quantities, and if we get the diesel cars needed to use it.

    I can't put diesel of any kind into my car, and about 97% of Americans are also unable to do so. The industry believes that very few consumers will be changing their minds about this. If you have a plan that JDP doesn't know about, I'd like to hear it.

    P.S. My friend's 3-series is an older model, and it certainly is noisier than the current generation, and in comparison to a similar gas car of the same era. While I'm sure he'd be thrilled to have an E90, I doubt that he could afford it.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    >> And the Prius sold over 100,000 units in the US last year.

    > Toyota claimed they would sell 250k Prius in 2006.

    No. The total Toyota brand production of all their hybrids for 2006 is 250,000. That isn't Prius alone. That isn't the US alone either.

    Of course, you've already told several times that the Prius allocation for the US for 2006 is 100,000.

    > My bet is hybrids never catch up with diesel sales in the USA.

    That's very amusing. Prius sales surpassed VW TDI (combined total of all models) back in 2004.

    JOHN
  • markcincinnatimarkcincinnati Member Posts: 5,343
    Generally, I agree, almost violent agreement with this:

    "I realize that because diesels have benefited from signicant improvements as of late, a turbocharged diesel compared to a normally aspirated gas engine of similar displacement will likely produce similar acceleration with superior fuel economy, that European ULSD fuel burns far cleaner than the diesel of old, that the noisy idle issue isn't quite it once was, and that glow plugs are a thing of the past."

    And, I even agree:

    "But that isn't the issue. Here's the basic point:

    -Americans currently don't like diesels. They buy very few of them."


    I believe -- I cannot prove this with perhaps other than secondary sources, and if someone else can, please chime in -- that the reason "Americans currently don't like diesels," can and probably will change BECAUSE,

    "a turbocharged diesel compared to a normally aspirated gas engine of similar displacement will likely produce similar acceleration with superior fuel economy, that European ULSD fuel burns far cleaner than the diesel of old, that the noisy idle issue isn't quite it once was, and that glow plugs are a thing of the past."

    Noting my personal lack of proof, again, tell me where my conjecture goes awry.

    Finally, another reason diesels have not done well is the slim to none choice offered by many mfgrs. Moreover, part of the paucity of choice has come from government interference which as has been noted is being peeled away.

    Thanks for the spirited debate. :shades:

    It possibly could be a whole new diesel day, is my point.

    And E85 will encourage this day, too.
  • seniorjoseseniorjose Member Posts: 277
    In 2005, Volkswagen sold more than 29,000 diesel-powered cars in the United States

    29,000 cars out of how many in the market? I don't have the 2005 sales figures here, but I'm going to guess that it was in the neighborhood of 14-15 million vehicles.

    Diesel might be nice and I agree with you that diesels are a totally new product thet has no auto infrastructure here in the USA.

    Sales of diesel autos for 2007 will be 0 units, that's 000,000 out of 15,000,000, ZERO, NADA, buttkuss...! Some technology...and of course the proponents of the auto diesels are complaining the it is the government's fault...of course, it is all a government plot...chuckle!
  • seniorjoseseniorjose Member Posts: 277
    My bet is hybrids never catch up with diesel sales in the USA. I guess we just have to wait and see who is right. My money is on JD Powers having a better perspective than anyone on this thread.

    Diesel sales for 2005 were 29,000, hybrid sales are over 300,000 total already. Of course 2007 sales will be ZERO!
  • addeditaddedit Member Posts: 2
    My look into the future:
    Hey, E85 is just getting its feet off the ground. Like any startup venture costs are higher at the beginning, availability starts small and builds, plus the early adopters will lead the way. More efficient production of ethanol will increase, higher sugar content biomass will be directed towards ethanol and engines will be engineered to get better E85 MPG. Within 5 years 100% of Ford's & GM's "gas" vehicles produced will be flex-fuel. During that timeframe, at least one of the major oil companies will repackage themselves as a benevolent 'energy' company and sell E85 at all of their stations.
    IMHO
    PS - in 5 yrs, a Midwestern pipeline company will build an E85 compatible pipeline network and solve the distribution problem in its region (and makes lots of $$$ piping the stuff).
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    That's very amusing. Prius sales surpassed VW TDI (combined total of all models) back in 2004

    I don't think I limited that to VW TDI. They are having a hard time building them fast enough for the rest of the world, with a 16% rise in world wide sales. As usual, we get the dregs in the USA. Total diesel light vehicle sales in the US include PU trucks with diesel engines. As long as the automakers limit the production on both hybrids and diesels, we will not know the true market. If you eliminated the hybrid sales in the CARB states I don't think they would outsell the VW TDI. All VW says is the TDI is 20% of the Jetta sales. Jetta is outselling the Prius by a good amount this year. Not that it makes any difference. You can also buy a Jetta in the 45 non-CARB states that has a higher emissions rating than the Prius.

    As a side note VW is the largest manufacturer of FFVs in Brazil. I think all they sell are flex fuel down there. In fact it looks like they may sell more cars in Brazil than Toyota sells in the USA.

    VW’s flex-fuel sales in Brazil
    Effective this month, Volkswagen Brazil is halting production of gasoline-only models in the country. All vehicles with gasoline engines will now roll off the line flex-fuel-capable.

    While a number of manufacturers offer flex-fuel vehicles in Brazil, VW is the first to switch entirely to the technology across its entire line-up.

    VW introduced its flex-fuel 1.6-liter Goal in March 2003, followed by the 1.0-liter Fox in October 2003 with the Bosch flex-fuel engine management system (earlier post).

    VW has been a leader in the Brazilian flex-fuel market from the beginning, and now has a 35% market share, with aggregate flex-fuel sales of 575,111 units through April 2006. The Goal and the Fox together represent of those 464,087 units.
  • seniorjoseseniorjose Member Posts: 277
    E85 is not even an option for 95% of the population. There is only one station selling it in CA, OR & WA. That is not the biggest obstacle. Who is going to buy E85 that gets 30% less MPG than regular gas? The very best price in the most pro E85 state MN, is anywhere from even to 40 cents cheaper. The only ones using E85 are government agencies. It ain't their money they are wasting.

    Now, now, let's look at the myths and falsehoods again...and again...and again! CA may never have an ability to use E85...different strokes for different folks...that's the beauty of FFV vehicles. CA is dead set against ethanol...OK, they have to figure out something else for the CA drivers to use in FFV vehicles. Biodiesel crops are in shorter supply than ethanol crops, that is why biodiesel is getting so slowly off the ground. I have posted actual tests, and you should take the time to read them...what are you proposing?? ...junk yard science for items like big unnecessary hybrid pickups that will cost their second owners thousands and thousands of dollars in repair costs (the downside on all hybrids) or diesels that still do not qualify for anti-pollutant specs in the USA...when will those problems be solved. The first solving od the diesel pollutant problem will be focused on our big rigs and not any autos...they will be secondary. Once the large trucks have been fixed, then auto makers will probably strat importing the diesels again, but into an infrastructure that cannot support any diesel autos. The engine technology has been solved for all post 1998 ethanol use, while gas guzzling pickup hybrids and unwanted diesels (didn't you firesale your 2005 VW diesel)?
    the prices you are quoting for E85 are just false...I don't know what there is more to say about that. Please use facts. Like it or not, MTBF being replaced by Ethanol is the law of the land..and is in Canada...Mexico may be a good choice for an ethanol-free environment.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I assume you have some kind of documentation for your outlandish 300k hybrids sold. Or was that world wide since 1999? Do you ever make rational comparisons? Several companies have already said they are offering diesel cars for 2007 with sales starting this fall. You think they will sell Zero? VW has said they will build an extra large shipment of 2006 Jetta TDIs to carry their dealers over until the 2008 model VW diesels are ready for all 50 states in 2007.

    Now how many filling stations are you predicting will have E85 available for the 50+ million cars on the West coast by the end of 2007? You have one so far, let's hear if for the E85 team. I hear the ethanol evaporates before I see the price of ethanol is going even higher. I guess those nasty old corn farmers want a bigger chunk of the pie.
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    Toyota claimed they would sell 250k Prius in 2006.

    I wish that you'd reference your sources.

    Throughout much of 2005, the Prius was a car on waiting lists, which means that inventories would have been perhaps just a few days. Your own source indicated that Prius inventories are currently at 8 days.

    All of that means that Toyota would not have even had the capacity to deliver 250,000 to the US market during 2005. They would not have planned such a thing if they didn't have the factory capacity to build it.

    Unlike some of the Detroit automakers, TMC does an outstanding job of inventory management, so you can be assured that they would not have projected 250,000 units when they couldn't build anywhere near that amount.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    (didn't you firesale your 2005 VW diesel)?

    It was a hot seller for sure. Paid $26k and sold it 13 months later for $29k. I happen to buy just when the price of diesel went past gas prices. Being the knee jerk society that we are, people quit buying diesel cars in parts of the USA. Buy low and sell high. That has been my motto.

    the prices you are quoting for E85 are just false...I don't know what there is more to say about that. Please use facts

    I did not quote them. They are posted on a very PRO E85 website. Scan through this list. I am sure you will find something you like. None are priced to actually compete with unleaded regular, even with a 60 cent advantage it is still a loser fuel. E85 prices
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I wish that you'd reference your sources.

    I did not say 2005. I was corrected. It was 250k Toyota hybrids for 2006. Not 250k Prius for 2006. So we have to see if they make their prediction. Toyota is currently holding back production on the Prius to use those parts for the very popular Camry Hybrid. Are you happy now?

    No one seems to know if Toyota will offer an E85 option on any of their hybrids. I thought you may know as you seem to be very pro TMC.
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    No one seems to know if Toyota will offer an E85 option on any of their hybrids. I thought you may know as you seem to be very pro TMC.

    I'm not "pro Toyota", but I recognize that it is an extremely well managed company that serves its markets very well. That being said, most of their products generally leave me flat, and I don't own one.

    As for E85, as I've noted, Toyota is smart to promote hybrids, and to not tout E85. Why would it do this today, when doing so would give credibility to GM, and when it isn't now selling these cars itself?

    The last thing TMC wants to do is to hand a competitive benefit to General Motors, which has recently gone on the offensive to tout E85 in an effort to make itself appear innovative and green. If GM wants to build a market for itself, Toyota is not going to bankroll it.

    And don't kid yourself, TMC is developing FFV vehicles. As noted by this article in Edmunds, Toyota will have FFV cars in Brazil next year and in the US in 2008. They'll market those cars here when they have them here, not two years in advance when Ford and GM would be the ones to benefit.
  • heel2toeheel2toe Member Posts: 149
    There will be diesels sold in America in 2007 -- DCX will be selling a diesel Jeep Grand Cherokee and Mercedes will continue to offer the diesel E Class sedan, at least.

    And actually, there is certainty that VW is extending the Jetta model run to the end of this year to push the TDI supply of 2006 models into next spring. Beyond that, there is speculation that the 2008 models might show up earlier than expected, so the unavailabilty gap could potentially be much smaller than we are currently anticipating. VWoA is going to take a major hit without the diesels, and with Wolfgang Bernard running VWAG, one would assume that he understands and places importance on the American market.

    This whole "Americans don't like diesels" argument is silly. When gas was less than $2 per gallon, nobody in this country thought twice about miles per gallon. Since $3 per is turning out to be more permanent seeming now, the sales of midsize SUV's have fallen off a very large cliff that threatens both Ford and GM. As a result, saying that higher gas prices are not going to modify behavior seems very specious to me. And finally, from what they have released, Honda seems very much on board (new engine plant, new V6 diesel engine for the Odyssey, Ridgeline, and Pilot, and US emissions certification for the I4 currently sold in Europe). Honda is as mainstream America as they get...and I'd expect sales to follow accordingly.

    A British car site has the Jeep Grand Cherokee CRD getting 51% better combined mileage than the JGC V8...that's pretty compelling stuff, if you ask me. I know I'd bet that Americans aren't nearly as stupid and inclined to prejudge as other posters here do...

    Of course, if EPA certification turns out to be hard or if gas goes back down to under $2 per gallon, this situation changes...
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    A British car site has the Jeep Grand Cherokee CRD getting 51% better combined mileage than the JGC V8...that's pretty compelling stuff, if you ask me.

    It obviously hasn't been compelling to 97% of the American driving public. Diesels have always had these advantages, but it hasn't helped sales.

    You can call it "silly", but none of you have shared with us your great plan for getting Americans to change their habits. Had we had the internet during the seventies, I'm sure that we would have identical arguments on behalf of diesel, but those proved to be wrong, too.

    If the automakers agreed with you, they'd be doing a full push to put millions of diesels onto sales lots. At this point, they are treading forward very slowly, which tells you that they have a wait-and-see attitude about this mature technology with an image problem.
  • hwyhobohwyhobo Member Posts: 265
    At this point, they are treading forward very slowly, which tells you that they have a wait-and-see attitude

    They've been taking a wait-and-see attitude for years now. Perhaps that's why both Ford and GM and so close to the precipice now. They will wait-and-see themselves straight into the abyss. Sometimes "wait-and-see" is just a euphemism for "ineptitude".
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    > none of you have shared with us your great plan for getting Americans to change their habits

    That is the grim reality diesel supporters are very much in denial about. Even the domestic automakers aren't that stubborn. They recognize that lack of willingness to change... which is a strong reason for pushing ethanol.

    The switch to diesel won't gain the typical American driver all that much since the ones with automatic transmissions (which this population undeniably prefers) don't offer than big of a MPG gain, especially when dealing with daily stop & slow commute traffic. In fact, the benefit is pitiful compared to what a Prius using E10 (10% ethanol) delivers already. And the next generation is promising to deliver even higher efficiency.

    I've pushed them on many occasions, asking what the heck they intend to do to draw new interest for diesel. The response was the tranquil sound of crickets in a lonely field on a summer evening. In other words, nothing! They have no plan.

    JOHN
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    asking what the heck they intend to do to draw new interest for diesel.

    You act like we have any say in what gets past the EPA. It takes on average a couple years to get any new design past the EPA and NHTSA. As was pointed out in an earlier post, mileage was of little concern when gas was $2 per gallon. Same goes for the Hybrids. People are getting used to $3 gas. I don't think you will see much of an upward trend in hybrids. The Camry hybrid is getting all the glory for right now. The Prius is a slow seller this year compared to last year. The only Toyota car selling better this year than last is the Corolla. That indicates some concern about fuel economy. IN fact all the top 5 selling cars are doing better this year than last. All except the Camry. The Prius is not in the top 25 for May. The VW Jetta is out selling Prius. Mostly due to the Very Popular Jetta Diesel.

    As far as FFVs I doubt anyone would pay a nickel more to get a FFV over a conventional. That is all politics as usual.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    Huh?

    What part of "your plan" don't you understand?

    Or is just making excuses it?

    JOHN
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    That is the grim reality diesel supporters are very much in denial about. Even the domestic automakers aren't that stubborn.

    Exactly. Diesel would not have saved GM and Ford from their current problems. After all, the successful automakers such as Toyota and Honda aren't selling them here, either, and those that do sell them sell very few.

    If the automakers wanted to sell diesels in the US, they would. These very same companies are selling diesels in other markets, so there is a reason why they don't bring them to the US...and no, it isn't because of CARB.

    They recognize that lack of willingness to change... which is a strong reason for pushing ethanol.

    That's where we differ. I don't see E85 making it either, unless there are subsidies, fuel tax adjustments and/or reductions in the cost of production that can make it cost effective.

    If the government mandated that all gas cars ran on E85, and then the price of the fuel was advantageous by whatever means, then consumers would use it. I doubt that would ever happen, but at least consumers could continue to buy cars that use gas, a fuel they obviously understand.

    I've pushed them on many occasions, asking what the heck they intend to do to draw new interest for diesel. The response was the tranquil sound of crickets in a lonely field on a summer evening. In other words, nothing! They have no plan.

    I think that it's silly to get wrapped up and absolutely devoted to a technology for its own sake. We need practical solutions, and practicality includes that people use it.

    Perhaps the changes need to be multi-pronged and incremental. If some combined use of ethanol in some cars, some degree of use of biodiesel in heavy trucks, some hybrids, and some drivers switching to more efficient cars led to an overall reduction in demand of perhaps 10-20%, that would actually have a significant impact. But again, I don't see the free market alone accomplishing this, I believe it will require additional incentives and mandates to make such a thing workable.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    and no, it isn't because of CARB.

    I beg to differ. You cannot buy a new diesel car in CA or any of the wannabe states. The same cars pass all the EPA emissions even with crappy diesel, but CARB started phasing diesel cars out in 2000. They were completely banned 1/1/2004. The only way you can get a diesel car in CA is to buy one with 7500 miles on it. So if that is not CARB I would like to know who you think is blocking the sale of diesel cars in CA. It sure is not the dealers. They would love to be able to sell to the largest car market on the planet. It was probably well placed campaign contributions by the likes of Toyota. Made it easier to unload the Prius on folks that would like to get more miles per gallon of fuel. I doubt the Prius and subsequent hybrids would have sold half as many vehicles if they had a diesel option to compete against.

    Hybrids don't sell well at all in the EU where you can get a decent diesel car.

    Maybe you have some documentation that says that CARB will allow new diesel cars to be sold after 2004 in CA. You seem to know so much about diesel sales. Your argument makes about as much sense as saying a kid does not like ice cream when none is available.

    My documentation shows you have no clue about the popularity of the diesel cars, if offered.

    US Sales of VW Diesel Cars Climbed Sharply in April
    8 May 2006
    Bloomberg. Sales of Volkswagen cars with diesel engines reached a record 22% of VW’s total sales last month. VW posted sales of 20,528 units of all vehicles in the US in April, an 11.2% increase from April 2005.

    In April, the diesel versions accounted for 38% of 9,930 total Jetta purchases; 40% of 3,580 total New Beetle purchases


    http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/05/us_sales_of_vw_.html
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    In April, the diesel versions accounted for 38% of 9,930 total Jetta purchases; 40% of 3,580 total New Beetle purchases

    Did you bother crunching the numbers on this one? That works out to be about 5,200 diesels. (And the other story there is that the Beetle is no longer selling very well, in any form.)

    That is not a lot of diesel cars. Based upon those numbers, Toyota is selling more hybrids than VW is selling diesels. It's odd that you see the higher Toyota sales as some indication of failure, while you hail the lower VW sales figures as some sort of Second Coming.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    > That's where we differ. I don't see E85 making it either

    You missed the "they" reference. I have never endorsed an ethanol-alone solution, nor sighted E85 as an appropriate today choice.

    E20 is what makes the most sense.

    JOHN
  • heel2toeheel2toe Member Posts: 149
    All VW TDI's present and future are mated to a DSG automatic, which uses two electronically controlled clutches and returns better efficiency than a manual. Getting a DSG Jetta TDI right now is very, very difficult...

    Imagine that! Technological advances increasing the potential acceptance of a product! I don't think certain forum members think that is ever possible.... :)
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    Technological advances increasing the potential acceptance of a product! I don't think certain forum members think that is ever possible....

    So, let's say that the use of diesel cars in the US triples from its current level. That would mean that 91% of cars would be running on something other than diesel.

    Is this 9% market share for diesel the revolution that you are talking about? Or do you know something that the industry experts don't which is going to achieve this massive breakthrough that you believe is going to happen?

    I don't see anyone but for a few diesel diehards who are making these lofty predictions. Obviously, the automakers don't see it, either.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Obviously, the automakers don't see it, either.

    I think they do. Honda for example is working very hard to bring diesel to the USA. It is the only option that has gotten them accepted in the EU. They are not so blind, that they cannot see that 38% of the Jetta sales are diesel. VW USA sales are up and Honda and Toyota car sales are flat. Honda has not had great luck with hybrids. Even though Honda IMA is probably better for the long haul. The bottom line is whether you or the American driver accepts diesel or not, it is still the best fuel for conserving the world oil supply. Ethanol still requires massive amounts of fossil fuel to grow and process. The experts I find most knowledgeable say it is a negative gain of ethanol to fossil fuel used. The ethanol industry cannot keep up with the demand for ethanol as a replacement for MTBE. How would they jump up to producing enough corn for E20 or E85?

    Maybe the boat owners will file a class action suit against ADM & Verasun taking away all the fat profit they are making. Too bad they cannot sue Congressmen that vote for all the stupid mandates.

    Recently the Boat Owners Association of the United States issued a warning to owners of older, expensive boats, after numerous members reported ruined engines with “black gunk sludging their intake valves.” The culprit is E10 gasoline, the same thing we are now using in the Metroplex; it’s melting away parts of their fiberglass fuel tanks — and the resulting gunk is clogging their fuel filters and fuel lines and ultimately destroying some very expensive motors. That’s when it occurred to me: a whole lot of gas stations have fiberglass storage tanks.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    > black gunk sludging their intake valves

    Ethanol is a natural cleanser. It will indeed dislodge junk that had already built up from from using dirty gas in the past.

    Once you get past that transission, the fuel lines remain clean... since the ethanol itself doesn't contain any sludge causing materials. It's just an alcohol. We've proven that here in Minnesota; every single gas vehicle has been using E10 since the 90's.

    JOHN
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    > All VW TDI's present and future are mated to a DSG automatic, which uses two electronically controlled clutches and returns better efficiency than a manual.

    Tell that to the guy hear that has been arguing that increased complexity is a very bad thing.

    Then tell us where the real-world data is. Let's see actual numbers.

    JOHN
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Tell that to the guy hear that has been arguing that increased complexity is a very bad thing.

    I thought you kept up on this stuff. DSG is smaller and less complex than a conventional auto transmission. Much less complex than the HSD system Toyota designed for their throwaway hybrids.

    DSG transmissions, the development of which has spearheaded by Volkswagen, are cheaper to produce and offer the driver a choice between an automatic mode or a more engaging clutchless shifting mode. DSGs are also lighter and fit easily into spaces engineered for a common manual transmission.

    I would imagine the DSG in conjunction with the diesel engine is the reason that the Jetta is out selling the Prius this year. The Jetta, a wonderful Drivers car. With the TDI DSG options you get an honest 49 MPG. All that and a comparably equipped Prius is about $2000 more than the Jetta TDI with DSG. Oh that includes the most important option in the Jetta, XM sat radio. The Jetta does not need a back up camera, you can see out the back.

    Oh and did I forget to add Volkswagen is the world leader in Ethanol cars for those that want less efficiency.
  • heel2toeheel2toe Member Posts: 149
    Driving a DSG made me reconsider my MT goal for a bit...it is an amazing transmission.

    Wolfgang Bernard stated pretty recently that VW plans to use DSG as its only automatic within the next several years, which should give the brand a very appealing selling point to US consumers.

    I don't know about the DSG technology being available to other auto manufacturers yet, but more widespread adoption definitely affects the suitability of low HP diesels to markets that greatly prefer automatics like the US.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    > With the TDI DSG options you get an honest 49 MPG.

    Again, where is the real-world data?

    JOHN
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    Gagrice, you've argued throughout the thread that ethanol is bad because ADM is involved in it.

    Yet here's an article showing that ADM is developing two biodiesel plants in the US. And apparently, ADM is the largest producer of biodiesel in Germany.

    Since we are apparently supposed to make our policy decisions based upon whatever doesn't work for ADM, I guess biodiesel is going to have go, to. After all, if ADM is going to profit from the vegetable oil that goes into producing biodiesel, why would I want to have anything to do with it?
  • seniorjoseseniorjose Member Posts: 277
    The diesel arguments are just the old "wait and see, but do nothing" attitude of many of the obstructionists for real change. That is why Ethanol is going great guns and Biodiesel for our truckers and farm equipment will be another solution (Diesel technology has been with us even longer than the gasoline engines -- but to a minor avail. I saw a small VW dealer in upstate New York have 6 diesel VWs that have sat on his lot for months...there is no pent-up demand for diesel autos right now. The problem is that the infrastructure to support diesel autos in repairs, fuel and legislation is totally missing or is statistically insignificant.

    Ethanol and E85 are being rolled out big time and any significant or rational arguments against ethanol have disappeared into the background noise and clutter of obstructionists and the inane arguments of a handful of irrational proponents who want to see American democracy fall and the opec cartel dictators win at any price. There is no price differential to buy an FFV or regular auto or pickup, so no decision has to be made. All autos/pickup trucks could be 100% FFV ready ASAP if necessary...they already are E10 ready!

    Ethanol has been selected (for better or worst) as one of our major tools to slow down or limit sharply our dependence upon foreign oil. ANWR and the gulf coast will ease those dependencies, new refineries, wind farms, natural gas exploration, nuclear energy and increased coal production will ease us into the next couple of decades.

    Lobbyists collecting millions from the obstructionists can block oil drilling, refineries, wind farms, and nuclear energy, but they CANNOT block Ethanol and, to some extent, Biodiesel raw supply from our American farmers or building Ethanol/Biodiesel manufacturing plant production...our American farmers hold the trump card on that one...that is why we sometimes hear such hysterical arguments as "...our pigs will suffer" (chuckle)" arguments. There will not be only one or two solutions in renewable fuels, but many, varying probably from state to state depending upon the state's location, its natural resources, and whether the state wants to join in the national plan.

    911 did happen, terrorism in the USA did happen (18 of 23 911 terrorists were from Saudi Arabia.) These anti-American oil cartel blackmailers from th middle east and south america only cause us to create increase our resolve to have American controlled renewable fuels to drive our national goals of alternate fuels. Fuels that right now are available for autos we are now driving and/or manufacturing, and eventually solutions for the 2nd quarter of the 21st Century and beyond.
  • markcincinnatimarkcincinnati Member Posts: 5,343
    . . .I seem to have lost the reason that we don't embrace diesels (which certainly seems accurate) here.

    It is simplistic, but -- go into the local "auto mall" and try to find a diesel passenger car. Even going into the German dealerships (which elsewhere have many gas and diesel engined version from which to choose) generally turns up at most two cars from which to choose.

    As a an English (only) speaking person, I got on the UK configurators for Audi/VW, BMW and Mercedes -- wow. There are plenty of diesel engined cars currently manufactured and sold.

    Certifying them for the American market has been (according to the Washington DC based Diesel Technology Forum) difficult due to regulatory roadblocks. These roadblocks appear to be largely due to the fact that our diesel fuel is "dirty" compared to the diesel fuel offered "over there."

    Yet, just this month, clean diesel starting pumping here in Vaspucciland. Audi/VW and Mercedes have announced plans to increase the number of models of current cars imported here with diesels. These will be conventional looking models that are already selling well here in America.

    This importation of many diesel powered models, in and of itself, is NOT a sure thing for sales. However, with gasoline unlikely to remain as cheap as it is currently (in the long run, despite temporary price drops) and with the performance gains that can be attributed to diesel, well one would think there is at least a chance that diesel will spread in popularity.

    Recall not THAT long ago the introduction of Front Wheel Drive and mainstream adoption of turbo charging. As I recall FWD and forced induction were in response to "gas lines" in that FWD cars could be "packaged" in such a fashion as to be both less expensive to build and less expensive to fuel. Moreover, taking a relatively small displacement engine (normally aspriated) and attaching a passive blower (a turbocharger) to it almost gave the consumer a 6 cylinder's performance from a 4 cylinder and an 8 cylinder's performance from a 6. Of course, the high output 4 used MORE gas than a lower output 4, but still less than the 6 is was able to imitate.

    We went through a period of time where we had mostly RWD normally aspirated gas sucking cars to where we "all" drove FWD turbo charged less gas sucking cars.

    Indeed there was a period of time (years and years) where finding a RWD [American] car was very difficult (even from Cadillac.) When the Germans and the Japanese in mass form came to our shores, they too brought FWD, small displacement (and some turbo utilization) too.

    Qwazy Wabbit (as in VW Rabbit) comes to mind.

    Now, there is no way on this forum for me to correlate the switch from heavy RWD V8 powered cars to lighter FWD small engined cars that happened significantly starting in the 80's with a switch from gas to diesel.

    Indeed, I find it difficult to imagine that we can go from 0.26% light diesel penetration to 33.3% penetration (thereby eliminating our need for 1.4 million bbl of Middle-Eastern oil per day -- which is, practically speaking all of our imports from that region) despite the cost savings, performance gains, cleaner air and political/social desirability.

    I actually wonder if it would be possible to go from UNDER 1% to 5%, let alone 9% as has been discussed above by others.

    It doesn't change the desirability of the goal, however.

    It doesn't change the fact that Adam Smith's invisible hand has been given some impetus to move by our very own Congress in the Energy Act of 2005 (specifically pertaining to diesels, in fact.)

    It did seem that overnight (well not literally of course) we were able to change from cars that used leaded gas to undleaded, were heavy RWD V8's to lighter FWD non-V8's. Therefore I am encouraged to be optimistic that the adoption of diesel may surprise many of us to the positive.

    It didn't take an act of Congress to get us -- almost ALL of us -- to start driving FWD turbo charged cars.

    It may only take the trickle down effect of offering almost literally every Audi/VW, BMW and Mercedes model on the market today in both diesel and gasoline variants.

    This trickle down, using Europe as an example and coupled with the Energy Act of 2005 could demonstrate a possibility, remote as it may be, of having over 50% of our lux class cars sold as diesel and trickling down to over 20% of all cars.

    It is, for now, difficult to imagine and cope with the breadth and depth of change that would be required to make this happen. But it has happened elsewhere and it could have a huge positive impact on all of us.

    Finally, while I don't want to only report the good news, so to speak, I do think it would be helpful to get the story out about both E85 and diesel (both petrol and non petrol diesel.)

    This blog and many others may do for diesel what was done for Howard Dean (I know, I know, loose him the election) -- and by that I mean, raise awareness, raise money and get it (diesel, not Dean) noticed.

    Diesel suffers from decades of a bad reputation -- but that can be turned quicker than we think, if history and this wonderful tool (the Internet) are any guide. :shades:
  • seniorjoseseniorjose Member Posts: 277
    A sampling of Hoosier ethanol users:
    • Name: Aaron Pierce, 17, Carmel, high school student. Drives: 2003 Chevy Tahoe.
    E85 user: Since May 2.


    • Why: "Not only does it burn cleaner, it is a fuel that literally comes from the backyards of many Americans."

    • Performance: "It seems like I burn 2-3 miles per gallon less than I would with gasoline (but) newer E85 engines get better mileage out of the fuel."

    •Patriotism: "If we all switch to E85 as our primary source of fuel, the United States will control production, refinement and distribution. I look at how rich the Middle Eastern counties got from oil and I see our potential with E85."

    • Name: Doug [non-permissible content removed], 40, Indianapolis, plumbing manager for Earl Gray & Sons.
    • Drives: 2005 GMC Yukon.
    • E85 user: Two years.


    • Why: "Engine lasts longer and stays cleaner, (uses) less oil use and prices were lower."

    • Performance: "When using regular gas I get 15 miles to the gallon city driving. With E85 I get 13 miles to the gallon. On the highway, there is very little difference. I have noticed that I seem to get a little more ‘get up and go’ with E85."

    • Patriotism: "We have made ourselves into slaves of foreign oil."

    • Name: Greg Cooper, 45, Carmel, real estate broker.
    • Drives: 2004 GMC Yukon.
    • E85 user: Two months.


    • Why: "Frankly, my initial impulse was paying back those who have been sticking it to us for a long time when it comes to oil."

    • Performance: "City mileage is slightly worse (but) highway actually is a little better."

    Patriotism: "This helps reduce our country’s dependence on foreign oil."

    • Name: David Gray, 22, Fort Wayne, communications grad student at IPFW.
    • Drives: 2003 Ford Taurus.
    • E85 user: Two months.


    • Why: "It burns much cleaner than gas and helps our economy."

    • Performance: "I have heard horsepower improves with E85 due to higher octane levels, but I have not noticed."

    • Patriotism: "It helps create Indiana jobs at production facilities and get our nose out of the Middle East and South America."

    ETHANOL PRODUCTION POISED TO RISE

    Indiana has one ethanol plant in operation, New Energy Corp. in South Bend. But at least 12 others are either under construction or in the planning stages, including:
    • Putnam Ethanol, Cloverdale.
    • Cargill/Demeter, Linden.
    • Iroquois BioEnergy, Rensselaer.
    • Central Indiana Ethanol, Marion.
    • The Andersons, Clymers.
    • Rush Renewable Energy, Rushville.
    • Central States Enterprises Inc., Montpelier.
    • ASAlliances Biofuels LLC, Tipton.
    • Cardinal Ethanol, Harrisville.
    • Premier Ethanol LLC, Portland.
    • ASAlliances, Mount Vernon.
    • Advanced BioEnergy, Rochester.

    Source: Indiana Lieutenant governor’s office.
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    It is simplistic, but -- go into the local "auto mall" and try to find a diesel passenger car. Even going into the German dealerships (which elsewhere have many gas and diesel engined version from which to choose) generally turns up at most two cars from which to choose.

    It's the same reason that your local dealership won't have pink-and-purple striped cars with green polka dots -- because almost nobody would want one.

    If the manufacturers don't offer a product, it's because nobody wants it, or else because they can't sell it for a high enough price to make a profit from it.

    Again -- you have automakers that sell diesels in other markets, yet either sell them here in very small quantities, or else don't sell them here at all. Ask yourself why that is, particularly in the case of the large makers such as Toyota that are extremely profitable and obviously quite savvy about what US customers want.
  • markcincinnatimarkcincinnati Member Posts: 5,343
    While you may be right, we really don't know if there is much pent up demand (although several car companies, claim there is) because the diesels that could have been brought here essentially wouldn't "run right" on our dirty diesel.

    I do not think things will change overnight, but the advent of clean fuel just this month, 17 days ago in fact, may make the cars that wouldn't "run right" on our fuel, run "fine as wine" and that, plus the EAC of 2005's incentives may (I did NOT say "will") start the ball rolling.

    Only "issues of taste" are involved in the example of cars with the polka dots. Until June 1, 2006, we actually had practical issues working against the automakers.

    Now, not so much.

    We had, perhaps a more apt analogy, only AC electricity, yet there were "superior" DC cars out there, but the trouble in trying to find enough DC to run them on wasn't worth the effort or expense. Zap! Someone turned on the DC -- now, perhaps within the next 2 years, we may see a change.

    Of course, I would agree, there still won't be many cars sold with green polka dots diesel, ethanol, fuel-cell, gasoline, hybrid, nuclear or solar.

    But, even then, I could be wrong -- paisley came and went and came. :surprise:
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    Until June 1, 2006, we actually had practical issues working against the automakers.

    I have seen no data that indicates that the primary issues have been with a lack of supply, rather than with a lack of demand. There has never been a period of time in recent US history when diesel was popular. If you outlawed diesel cars tomorrow, very few people would miss them or even care.

    Economics are largely demand driven, as producers can't produce things that people don't want and stay in business for very long.

    Diesel is obviously the fuel of choice for heavy trucks, so I don't see why biodiesel devotees simply don't look to it for leadership in spurring the transition to biodiesel. But that has quite a long way to go -- biodiesel production in the US is currently equivalent to about 5/100ths of one percent of the total US demand for diesel, so it's going to take a whole lot of vegetable oil to get us there.

    You could focus on serving the trucking industry without worrying about cars, and still prove out whether the business model makes sense. There isn't enough production capacity today for biodiesel to impact petroleum consumption, so how would expanding the pool of passenger cars do anything to alleviate the problem?
  • heel2toeheel2toe Member Posts: 149
    The irony of having a GMC Yukon driver talking about making ourselves into slaves of foreign oil is so very, very rich. A high school student that "needs" to drive a Chevy Tahoe is also priceless...

    :)
  • fireball1fireball1 Member Posts: 30
    Ethanol and E85 are being rolled out big time and any significant or rational arguments against ethanol have disappeared into the background noise and clutter of obstructionists and the inane arguments of a handful of irrational proponents who want to see American democracy fall and the opec cartel dictators win at any price.

    A handful of irrational opponents? Huh? Just skimming off some stuff I've read lately, corn ethanol opponents include a wide range of thinkers such as Environmental Defense, the Heritage Institute, the Sierra Club, The San Diego Union-Tribune, Michael Pollan, the Washington Times, the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Iowa Environmental Council, CorpWatch, the Wichita Falls Times Record, the Detroit News, the Cato Institute, Foundation for Research on Economics and the Environment, Charlie Munger (Berkshire Hathaway), Christian Science Monitor, Pennsylvania Citizens for a Quality Environment, John Deutch (director of energy research in Carter administration), Los Angeles Times, Toronto Star, Joel Schwartz (American Enterprise Institute), Environmental Working Group, American Institute of Biological Sciences, Taxpayers League of Minnesota, author Richard Manning, author George Pyle (Salt Lake Tribune), etc., etc., etc.

    Darn! And I thought it was just a handful ...

    Lobbyists collecting millions from the obstructionists can block oil drilling, refineries, wind farms, and nuclear energy, but they CANNOT block Ethanol and, to some extent, Biodiesel raw supply from our American farmers or building Ethanol/Biodiesel manufacturing plant production...our American farmers hold the trump card on that one.

    Don't forget the corn lobbyists, also collecting millions. Some of them work for ADM, to be sure. Our American farmers hold the trump card? I'm not sure about that one, either. The trump card is being held by the aforementioned corn lobby, ADM and other big agribusiness. Barely 50 percent of ethanol plants are owned by the farmers themselves, and the percentage diminishes all the time.
  • faroutfarout Member Posts: 1,609
    And I wonder whay DCx said that the CRD Liberty was not cost effective to make it so it would pass 2007 emissions. I have a CRd and 24 mpg is a lot better than 17 mpg with the 3.7 gas Liberty. This thinking is pure garbage.

    Farout
  • john1701ajohn1701a Member Posts: 1,897
    > A handful of irrational opponents? Huh? Just skimming off some stuff I've read lately, corn ethanol opponents

    Makes me wonder why SUGAR BEETS haven't become a target yet, especially since the ethanol yield from them is greater than that of corn.

    JOHN
  • gem069gem069 Member Posts: 65
    And I wonder whay DCx said that the CRD Liberty was not cost effective to make it so it would pass 2007 emissions. I have a CRd and 24 mpg is a lot better than 17 mpg with the 3.7 gas Liberty. This thinking is pure garbage.

    I believe that since Detroit is so money hungry to make the quickest buck today by any means is dropping the diesel liberty simply because they make more % of porfit from the newer cherokee.
    Yea I know they would probally sell all they can make of both models but somehow, that logit would never ever fit inot Detroit's logic.
    As has been clearly demostrated by Detroit's last 30 years.
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    I believe that since Detroit is so money hungry to make the quickest buck today by any means is dropping the diesel liberty simply because they make more % of porfit from the newer cherokee.

    That doesn't explain why Toyota, Honda and BMW don't sell these vehicles at all here, while those that do such as VW sell very few and do so little to promote them.

    Face it -- the smart, profitable automakers aren't expecting diesels to take over the US car market. The smart money is not betting on this technology taking off here.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    VW dealer in upstate New York have 6 diesel VWs that have sat on his lot for months

    NY is a CARB wannabe state. You say they allow the sale of diesel cars. That is interesting. You mind posting the dealers name. I have a list of folks that would love to buy a VW TDI and cannot find one.

    Ethanol and E85 are being rolled out big time

    So what do you consider big time? My understanding is we only have enough corn land to supply a maximum of 4% of our fuel needs. That is not enough to take care of the mandate using ethanol as an additive. If it is going to make a dent in our fossil fuel usage it will take more than emotional spin to get the job done.

    As for ADM producing biodiesel. At least it is a fuel with some useful attributes. If you read the energy bill you would know they threw in some money for biodiesel as well as ethanol. So ADM wants to get their lobbyist moneys worth on all fronts.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Makes me wonder why SUGAR BEETS

    I asked that a while back of our resident Ethanol salesman. I guess he is not allowed to talk about anything that takes away from the CORN industry. I believe he is a paid plant from the ADM lobby group. He keeps pasting only the stuff they pre-approve of. Such as misinformation about diesel cars and ethanol availability.
  • socala4socala4 Member Posts: 2,427
    My understanding is we only have enough corn land to supply a maximum of 4% of our fuel needs. That is not enough to take care of the mandate using ethanol as an additive. If it is going to make a dent in our fossil fuel usage it will take more than emotional spin to get the job done.

    Let's take a look at that:

    -According to this 2005 article, US diesel consumption is about 55 billion gallons per year. Of that amount, 30 million gallons of it is biodiesel, meaning that about 0.05% of total diesel consumption in the US is of the bio variety.

    -Based upon a figure of roughly 320 million gallons per day, US consumption of gasoline is about 117 billion gallons per year. US ethanol consumption equals about 2.5% of that figure, meaning that ethanol production is roughly 2.95 billion gallons per year.

    Let's compare these two results. Using these figures, current ethanol production exceeds that of biodiesel by about 98 times. (Yes, that's 9800%).

    Now, note this quote from the article:

    If biodiesel replaced as few as 133 million gallons of petroleum diesel, supporters say, current surpluses of soybeans and soy oil would disappear.

    Do the math on this: This is saying that if biodiesel production increased to an amount equivalent to one-quarter of one percent of current demand (133 million/ 55 billion = 0.25%), it would eliminate the current soy surplus.

    Those are pretty stark numbers: that means that 99.75% of diesel demand would need to be met by petroleum products, based upon current demand and crop availability.

    Let's face it -- biodiesel faces very similar constraints as does corn-based ethanol in the US AND is even further behind the curve. Neither product is in a position to radically transform US consumption without significant increases in agricultural production, more efficient sources of biomass, and/or more efficient refining processes. The numbers speak for themselves.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    Let's stop making this about each other please.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Again, where is the real-world data?

    It was posted in the hybrids and diesel thread and you discounted it because you did not like the results. Same old issues. Yes the New Jetta TDI with DSG did better on mileage than the Prius. It figures, the Jetta is a superior car to the Prius on many levels. And a lot more fun to drive.

    Where is the Prius that runs on E85? Or any Toyota? What is your plan to get Toyota up to date. Don't they know your ethanol business is dying on the vine without any Toyota FFVs.
This discussion has been closed.