What Will Be a Future Classic?

turboshadow · July 2006

I would like the following cars, which I think might become collectible, but would really want one just to drive. Problem is, in my ornery middle age (just tuned 40

) I can't see paying more than 10K for a plaything. Y'all speculate when I'll be able to purchase the following for under 10K:

SSR, stick shift
Crossfire coupe, stick
GTO, stick

TIA!

Turboshadow

rowlandj · July 2006

In the 'older classics' with pure mechanical components like points and condensers etc... it is relatively easy to keep the older cars running. What happens to these computer and sensor driven classics years from now when these components have issues? Not to mention the future potential lack of suitable fuel to work with these very emission driven systems.

It has been something I have been considering for a while and I wonder what other folks think about this?

JR

Mr_Shiftright · July 2006

I think hobbyists will be force to make modifications to keep the cars of today running. I suppose some folks are already hoarding ECMs, etc, but some cars have over 75 computers in them of various types and over 5 million lines of computer code, so...er...lotsa luck.....

Possibly on the really prolific cars, like Mustangs, aftermarket vendors might try to repo new or repair old circuit boards, etc. but with some of these very high powered chips, I dunno.....

Ditto on all the plastic panels and interior vacuum molded stuff---this stuff is going to be really expensive to re-make.

andre1969 · July 2006

I've wondered about too. I mean, at least with some of the earlier attempts at complexity, when things failed you could often just disable them or swap an older, more reliable component in. I'm thinking stuff here like Chrysler's Lean Burn, the Caddy V-8-6-4, etc. Or if a catalytic converter rusts out and you can't find a replacement, just run a straight pipe.

Nowadays though, the electronics and emissions are much more complicated. And if someone wants to try keeping an old PT Cruiser or Focus running decades down the road, it won't be quite so simple. Although I have seen 426 Hemis in PT's and Ford 351W's in Focuses, so maybe there is some hope. :shades:

lemmer · July 2006

Couldn't be too long. Almost nobody wants any of those cars new.

Mr_Shiftright · July 2006

SSR and Crossfire will soon be in the value basement and they will probably stay there. You won't have long to wait.

The GTO might take a bit longer, since it has decent and serious horsepower and is fun to drive.

lemko · July 2006

...Chrysler didn't put a 5.7 Hemi in the Plymouth Prowler instead of a V-6. It would then be a sure-fire collectible. I wonder if the Stealth has a chance at collectibility despite its Mitsubishi origins?

au1994 · July 2006

Ditto on all the plastic panels and interior vacuum molded stuff---this stuff is going to be really expensive to re-make

hmmm...I smell a business opportunity.

Mr_Shiftright · July 2006

I agree, Stealth is totally dead and forgotten. Whoever designed the interior on that car should be put up against a wall and shot. .

m1miata · July 2006

OK, I'll bite, what's bad about a Stealth? I do know the clutch should have been closer, so scooting up to get close enough meant the gas pedal and brakes were a bit close. Should not be a problem on automatics. I owned a Stealth and it has a good interior in my opinion. One of the best looking cars of all time. -Loren

m1miata · July 2006

What is your take on the other years of Mustangs? 1974, 1979, and 1994 are significant years for the survival of the Mustang. Those '74's sold well, but looked a bit like the Pinto, so I guess you scratch those? Perhaps not, as they are rare these days, and well their history. The '79, as a return to something more Mustang like, and a little more performance for the pony car, and entry into the Fox body era, may be worth something. I really liked the look of the '94. Looks like a modern day version of the '65 Stang. The '05 looks like a mix of '69 exterior, '65 and other year interior, and well, not sure what all is going on, but it sold. Going back to go forward, I am not convinced is the way forward. While it may not have the performance numbers for cornering, I am a bit more inclined to go '04 Stang if buying a second car for sport. It just seems honest, all the way down to the fake scoops. I realize that sounds wrong, but what I mean to say, it was always the next step of taking on a new shape, and adding some performance looks - trim to keep some tradition going forward. It was never a replica car. It may never make collector status, but I still think the 40th year, '04 Mustang, as a last of Foxbody could possibly make it. It was extremely popular with the young drivers as well as those older people which could afford the insurance and cost of the GT. And the '95, as the last of the 5.0 has some significance, I would think. The '79 on series had those LX with 5.o engines, with the notch back style, which should remain a popular car in the future. Bang for the buck, fast cars.

In modern times, I suppose the C4 era Corvettes starting in 1994 are the most significant Vettes to come along in a long time. That said, the C5 took it another step forward, and with easy entry and exit out of the cars, for older backs. I think, money wise, those C4s may be best bang for buck, and easier to maintain over time. Less costly than the C5.
-Loren

explorerx4 · July 2006

the '05 and up mustangs looked good almost 40 years ago, and i see no reason they won't look good in another 40.
i like the 91 fox convertible. it has the distinctive aero style and the 5.0 with forged pistons. these were downgraded for '92. it was the first year of the ubiquitous 16 inch pony rims, and the rear stack is lower than previous years, giving it a more speedster look with the top lowered.
of course, i'm kind of biased, seeing there is a very nice example of one about 50 feet from my keyboard.

andre1969 · July 2006

of the Fox-based Mustangs is the '99-04 style. I liked the way they squared it up just a bit. I know the '94-98 style was supposed to have some retro touches, but IMO those touches really showed through with the '99 style.

I kinda like those Mercury Capris that they sold up through what? 1985 or 1986? They had more of a squared-off front-end with headlight bezels that were kind of angled back, similar to an '80 F-series, or maybe a '75-76 Caprice. Or kinda like what the '83 T-bird would be.

m1miata · August 2006

So in a couple of decades, will people actually collect the '05 Stang? I think it will be looked at as a replica car. I see those replica Cobras in car shows all the time. When I see the New Stang I think of replica. Not saying it doesn't do this or that better than before, and it is not the best ever and all that good stuff, as the reviews seem to indicate. All I am saying is the look is so close to origins of a '69, it is perhaps to near??? It appears to be getting taller, wider, and blockier again. You know looking a bit fatter these days. I would have shot for leaner and lighter. But I know, people like SUV and are super sized now. Maybe the '05 will be collected some day. I see the '94-'95, '99 and '04 as more collectable newer models. -Loren
P.S. I like the '67-'68 and the '69-'70 in the older years. And I owned a '65 and '85 model year. Some Fox bodies have to make it to collector status. I think.

explorerx4 · August 2006

i have my opinions about mustangs, but they are not the whole world.
z06 corvettes, without a doubt. bmw m3 yes, but not at the local car show. other than that, i need help.

m1miata · November 2006

The BMW Z3 convertible and coupes. Then there is the Porsche Boxster. OK, add one more instant success, the Mercedes SLK.
-Loren

boomchek · November 2006

some of the tuner cars that you see in tuner magazines will be collectible, because they were custom with documented history, and because everyone flocked the tuner shows to see them.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2006

Dunno about those modern roadsters...they made a lot of them, especially Boxsters....they will be somewhat desirable but I can't see them bringing any big money....after all it took the common MGB 40 years to get to about $12,000, and Miatas are still very cheap 15 years later.

Too many cars = low price for a long, long time.

I'd say the Z3, SLK and Boxster will depreciate in value through 2006 --2016 then go stagnant for 5 more years and finally start to creep up around 2020.

boomchek · November 2006

Like some of the earlier posts said, a lot of cars will be valuable to people who wanted them in high school but couldn't afford them. In no particular order:

Acura Integra Type-R: One fo the first factory tuned pocket rocket and limited in production. Unmodified, and with nop accident history.

Honda Civic Si (99-00) Once again limited production, and quick.

Mazda RX-7 Twin Turbo 1993 - 1996: Quick, with timeless styling.

Nissan 300ZX Twin Turbo: same as above as long as they're not abused or have home made mods.

BMW M1, M3 - E30 version, any M5, M6. Any Alpina tuned BMWs, or Europe spec BMWs because they're rare and quick.

Chevy Impala SS from mid 90's.

Here's some questionable mass produced cars that just might be:

1990-1993 Honda Accord EXR 5 speed manual: everyone loved these cars, they're perfect size, a hoot to drive, super reliable, and if you can find one in stick it would be pretty rare.

1991 Civic or CRX Si in mint shapes, once again unmodified. The original pocket rockets that started the import tuning generation.

2003 Mazdaspeed Protege: only produced 1 year and very rare. Same thing for the 2007 Mazdaspped Protege3 if production is limited.

Toyota MR2 Turbo from 1990 - 1993: just my guess as you don't see many of them on the road.

Honda S600 roadster: very rare, and one fo Honda's first sports cars.

VW Phaeton: only produced a couple years iirc, and VW's first attempt at a luxury car.

VW Rabbit Gti: the original one from early 80's.

A lot of these I think will be collectible even though they were mass produced because once they deteriorate and get banged up and thrwon away, it will be rare to find a decent example in mint shape.

And some MB AMG versions, just can't think of any right now.

:shades:

Mr_Shiftright · November 2006

I'm kinda skeptical that any of those cars will be worth very much...I mean, some of them will be bought and sold for a DECENT price in the future, but I can't see people laying out big bucks for them....it will take decades upon decades for all of them to dry up, and by that time, most people won't care about them.

Why is that? Because they didn't have all the crazy options of the 60s cars. Remember, some of those big block cars you see for sale for big $$$ were built in tens or hundreds only....that's it.

Also there's the Golden Rule---"unloved new, unloved old"

So the Phaeton, MR2 turbo...not such a good chance.

The Mazda Twin Turbo is already a minor collectible..and you'll pay $15K for a nice one. The Type R might come up, definitely.

The Mazda Protege models are just a marketing ploy---I don't see these "special additions" going anywhere because they look so much like their common brothers and their differences are not so great from regular models.

The Honda 600 is starting to be collectible.

fintail · November 2006

I think they will be more of "special interest" cars, not necessarily gaining a lot of value, but having a following no less. Like Edsels, fintails, plain jane 1960s sedans, etc.

All of the modern cars mentioned are still depreciating, with no end in sight.

boomchek · November 2006

The Mazda Protege models are just a marketing ploy---I don't see these "special additions" going anywhere because they look so much like their common brothers and their differences are not so great from regular models.

I may agree with you on some parts because a lot of special editions are built in the hundreds of thousands. But older cars like the Mustangs, Camaros with big engines and option packages also had plain jane models that looked the same save for the engine/tranny combos.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that the cars our generation lust after is different than the one baby boomers are snatching up right now for six figures.

The cars on that list would be ones I'd buy and hold onto if I had the resources and real estate to keep them. Not necessarily because I think they will appreciate in value, but more because I wanted to own and experience them for one reason or another.

andre1969 · November 2006

might be if an old car ever appreciates back up to what its original purchase price was, factored for inflation. For instance, my grandparents bought a brand-new 1957 Ford Fairlane 500 4-door hardtop, pretty well loaded, and it stickered for about $3500. Factored for inflation, that's about $24,000 today. However, I doubt if any 4-door 1957 Ford, no matter how nice, is going to be worth anywhere near that. Maybe more like $8-10,000 for a really nice one?

On the flip side, the average 1958 Impala convertible, which had a base price of around $2800, left the showroom with a sticker price of around $4,000. Plugging that into an online inflation calculator, that's about $26,000 today, and I'm sure a nice '58 Impala 'vert would fetch much more than that.

The 1975 Swinger that my grandparents bought new for $5,000 in 1975 might, if it was in really pristine condition, fetch that today. But $5K in 1975 is more like $19K today.

I wonder how many cars ever go back up in value to the point that they top their original purchase price, factored for inflation? Very few, I'm sure.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2006

I think the problem boom is that the six-figure cars you talk about are far far more rare than the modern ones that the younger generation must "lust" for....after all, the less your lust is satisfied, the more lust you have, and the more you will spend to get what you desire. Any of the modern cars you mention will be so plentiful, even in 25 years, that the desire will be met fairly easily.

Car values are, after all, are dictated by simple supply and demand.

I think we will have fewer younger people into cars than the pot-belly generation (that's me, a "boomer") and those fewer people will be chasing plentiful car supplies.

Why fewer young people? Because cars now compete with such a wide range of interests for younger people--things never open to us when we were young. You have electronics, gaming, extreme sports, computers, Internet---there's little time to tinker on cars. Yeah, it's a BIG market still, but it's not dominant like it once was.

boomchek · November 2006

If that's what things will look like in 20 years then I have a bright car collecting future ahead of me: cars I always wanted for an affordable price! :shades:

boomchek · November 2006

I didn't realize till now you're the guy who does those R&T cartoons. Nice meetin you!

Mr_Shiftright · November 2006

and LIKEWISE!

Yep, the "future collectible" market should be back in the hands of the real hobbyists very soon, with the exception of a few rare and/or exotic cars.

Remember, with one rare exception, no Japanese car, to this day, has EVER achieved a high dollar collector car price. That's a pretty sobering 40 year record of non-appreciation.

michaellno · November 2006

Remember, with one rare exception, no Japanese car, to this day, has EVER achieved a high dollar collector car price.

And would that exception be the late 60's Toyota 2000GT coupe?

Mr_Shiftright · November 2006

Yep, that's the one!

andre1969 · November 2006

what do you guys consider to be "high dollar collector car price"? 6 figures? Or something a bit more reasonable.

What's considered "High dollar" is going to vary from person to person. As someone who has never spent more than $3,775 for a used car, trust me, my criteria is probably lower than someone who's in the market for a Hemi Barracuda convertible!

Mr_Shiftright · November 2006

Well "high dollar" means an eyebrow raiser, and a price that is escalating. No it's not 6 figures but it's not 5 figures either. I'd say any car pushing past $20,000 ( and realizing those prices) these days would have to be considered an appreciating collectible, and a "high dollar" collectible, especially for American iron, would be around $40,000 and up. It seems that right now, $40K separates quality stuff from the clones and wannabees in the collector car market.

So that means a '55 T-Bird isn't a high dollar collectible? Exactly. Prices have been flat on them for some time. Now a supercharged '57--that's another story----rare car, high demand.

Same with say a Mustang....plain vanilla 6 cylinder '65 convertible--that's 15--20K, but a K code GT 4-speed, that's $40K++ and going up still. So one's not "hot" but is sorta kinda collectible...the other "red hot" and heading for big bucks.

$3,775 might get you a decent old car but that's not exactly the "hot end" of the collector car market. One would infer that the demand for such a car is not great if that's the best price out there.

fintail · November 2006

I think when most under 40 year old cars can appreciate back to their raw original price, not adjusted for inflation, that they are doing well.

It's good that so many old cars are indeed relatively cheap. It needs to be a hobby, not another venue for speculators.

andre1969 · November 2006

that's what I paid for my '67 Catalina convertible, back in 1994. Just out of curiosity, what would be a ballpark figure for something like that nowadays? The top mechansim doesn't work (you can hear it run but it has no fluid, leak somewhere). It really needs a new top, as well. Interior's pretty good. No tears in the vinyl, dash pad's good, plood's in good shape. It does have a crack in the windshield though. It has a/c but it doesn't work. Other options include automatic, power steering/brakes, tilt wheel. Rebuilt 400, converted to a 4-bbl, and a rebuilt tranny.

Here's a recent pic of it, taken over the summer. Oh yeah, it's also been repainted, and while the chrome's not bad, it really needs a rechroming to look primo.

I'm not looking to sell it...hell, I wanted a '67 Catalina ever since I was a little kid! But just kinda curious as to what it would go for, like if I wanted to buy something like this today. Hopefully a bit more than $3775.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2006

Sounds like a low #3 car, so figure $6,000--$7,500 or so. Hard to say without seeing it, but I'm figuring it needs a quick $4,000 to shape it up to a solid #3 level, which brings about $10,000---$11,000.

Top: $1,000
Windshield $350
Chrome bumpers $600
AC: $1,000
repair top $750
This 'n that: $500
Buff, shampoo, wax, grooming, clip toenails, etc. $250

andre1969 · November 2006

Thanks, Shifty! So I guess this means that if I ever do take the car up to Carlisle to try and sell, I need to jack up the price to something like $20K, write "FIRM" on the windshield, and then cop an attitude and tell people they don't know what they're talking about when they comment on the ridiculous price? :P

Wow, are tops really $1000 these days? Honestly it's needed a new top ever since I bought it, almost 13 years ago. It did have an almost new top at the time, but in the winter of '94 we had a lot of ice storms. This car was sitting on a sales lot at the time, and when one of the employees went to scrape the ice off, he punched it right through the roof in a couple places.

Is there any rough rule-of-thumb as to how long a convertible top should last, on average? I remember reading something about it ages ago, where they said to figure on replacing it every 3-5 years. Seems excessive to me, but I guess if it's a daily driver, and out in the weather constantly, it's possible. Now that I think about it, the top on my buddy's '98 Tracker convertible was just about trashed when he traded it this past May, and it had been that way for at least several years.

And I guess that I should finally break down and get the top mechanism fixed. I was only 24 when I bought the car, and hadn't developed the back problems I have today, so I thought nothing of putting that top up and down by hand. But nowadays it ain't as easy to lift it as it used to be. And I don't think a shorter person could do it. It's really a 2 person job.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2006

I think the durability of the top depends a lot on the car itself...some cars are tougher on tops than others. But with big American cars, those power motors can really stretch a top and rip it.

You probably need hydraulic work, so there's some digging to be done as well as rebuilding the hydraulic pump, etc. Yeah, a good quality top is getting expensive. It's a lot of hand labor is the problem.

You can ask whatever you wish for your car, sure! You are after all merely exercising your First Amendment rights, which is allowed under the US Constitution (last time I looked)...so no one has the right to criticize your $20,000 price tag....laugh, yes, but not criticize..... :P

gmontagew · November 2006

My Father passed away last year and among other things, we were left one of his old cars. It's a very unusual French Citroen sport coupe--a 1971 Citroen SM according to the certificate of ownership. He had it since new, but it has been in his heated garage for the past 20 years, at least, but seems to be in very good original condition. We started it up after putting in a new battery and ran it around the shopping center and it goes quite nicely. It was maintained fairly regularly while in storage, by having it started and run three or four times a year, and occasionally driven, but not far and not often. It has cleaned up very nicely and looks like an almost new car. He told us on many occasions the car was very fast, and was a much desired model by purists. I know it was fast because we rode in it many years ago and it really cooked!
Any idea what this car is and what it's approximate worth is? Is it a genuine collectible car? Do people in this country even know about such a car?
Thanks for any help.

british_rover · November 2006

Not much of a following for Citroens in the US so probably not worth that much but it is a neat car and worth saving if it is in such good condition.

Take it to car shows and stuff tell the car's story to people. It will be a good way to remember your father.

fintail · November 2006

I don't know what a really good rustfree sound SM is worth...7500-10K? It's a freakshow of sorts.

gmontagew · November 2006

I'm not sure what you mean by "It's a freak show".
It may be a freakshow to you, but it's a wonderful legacy to us. In terms of its worth, no matter because we will never sell it, but I was just curious.
I did come across this on the net--it's apparently a VERY fast automobile:
"1979 Bonneville Land Speed Trial F/ALT 151.249/Record
1980 Bonneville Land Speed Trial F/GC 148.773/Record
1981 El Mirage Racing Season D/GC 175.430/Record
1985 Bonneville Land Speed Trial D/GC 200.002/Record
1987 Bonneville Land Speed Trial D/GC 202.301/Record"

fintail · November 2006

Oh, I don't use 'freakshow' as something really derogatory...just used to describe a REALLY odd car.

I am sure the Maserati engines in those can do something.

british_rover · November 2006

THey are shaped like a tear drop. Nearly a perfect aerodynamic shape.

All you need to set them up for bonneville, besides the safety equipement, is a deeper front spoiler and some special tires.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2006

Well it's kind of an oddball car for American collectors but there are a few people who like them, and you should be able to get $10,000 -- $15,000 if you are patient and you advertise in the right places.

They were "fast" in their day but not by modern standards...maybe 0-60 in 8 seconds and a top speed of 135 mph.

The biggest obstacle to selling one is people's fear of the complexity of the car, and how difficult it is to get parts or service.

I've driven them...they are pretty unusual in how they feel on the road...the steering doesn't self-center and that takes some getting used to, as does that famous Citroen hydro-pneumatic suspension.

Certainly an interesting car and technically advanced for its day...it deserves a good home but maybe not in America. It should go back to France really.

gmontagew · November 2006

Now that you mention the France connection, I remember Dad saying the SM was definitely considered quite a collectible classic in France and other parts of Europe, and if he ever did decide to sell it, that's where he would advertise it.
We don't intend to sell it however, at least for the forseeable future. We have an extra garage on the property so that's where it'll stay. I even thought about putting it into the rec room as a conversation piece! (Just Kidding!)

Mr_Shiftright · November 2006

Well be sure to "exercise" it. If it just sits there the suspension will probably collapse and then you have a big headache on your hands. I think there are some special arrangements for long term storage on that car, so you might wish to talk to other SM owners about this.

andre1969 · November 2006

that most people in America go for that French pastry looking one like what Chevy Chase got wedged in the archway in "National Lampoon's European Vacation"? The DS, I think it was called?

I see those things fairly regularly at car shows, but the SM seems a much rarer beast. Didn't the SM make MotorTrend's car of the year in 1972?

Mr_Shiftright · November 2006

Yep.... a left-handed compliment at best, since they gave the same award to the Mustang II in 1974 and the Renault Alliance in 1983.

The SM never won the European car of the year award, although other Citroens have won it.

And automotive journalists around the world did vote the 1955 Citroen as one of the most significant cars of the 20th century (during the car's 100th anniversary in 1996).

isellhondas · December 2006

Instead of a brake pedal they have a rubber bladder of sorts you step on etc.

We had a neighbor that had one, a station wagon no less! Every morning, it would be sitting on it's bumpers. When he started it, it would take ten minutes to raise up so he could drive it.

Comfortable seats like no other car!

This car will be a nightmare to maintain and finding anyone willing to work on it will be difficult at best.

Seriously, I would give keeping it a LOT of thought. If something complex breaks (and it will)the car could be doomed.

1racefan · December 2006

I have a relative hanging on to a 1992 Miata in the sunburst yellow. The car only has 30,000 some miles on it. I know it is a rare color, but what are the odds of it becoming a classic?

Mr_Shiftright · December 2006

Well let's look at the MGB, also a popular, pretty common car made in huge numbers.

After 30 years or so, their value is, in superior condition, about $12,000.

So I'd presume your car in the year 2022 would be worth about the same, which is to say---is it worth storing and insuring? No....

But it will always be 'collectible' even if not a valuable classic.

A Miata is the kind of car you want to use up and enjoy right now. If in 30 years someone wants to restore it, well, that's something for the future.

What Will Be a Future Classic?

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