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Midsize Sedans 2.0

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Comments

  • jeffyscottjeffyscott Member Posts: 3,855
    If you get a new Sonata for $16,000, and it suffers the industry average 20% deprecation in its first year, you are looking at a car worth $12,800 after year one

    So it "cost" you $3200 in the first year. I suppose you think one is better off if they bought an Accord or Camry for $21,000 and it depreciates at only 80% of your average figure...meaning it loses 16% in the first year or $3380.
  • aviboy97aviboy97 Member Posts: 3,159
    It is an extreme possibility. The displacement seems to give us that idea, but, the Mazda built MZR and the Ford built Duratec usually have different internals, not to mention a different computer tune.
  • aviboy97aviboy97 Member Posts: 3,159
    In theory, yes. However, don't tell that to a Accord or Camry owner who thinks their car does not depreciate and think they can get 80% of original value after 4 years.

    The original questions was in regards to the resale value going up on the Sonata, not how much it "costs" to use it in one year.

    Since Hyundai's have been getting better, their value should increase over time. Lets be honest "it's a Hyundai" does not hold as much weight as "it's a Honda" just yet. The Sonata is a great bargain. Question is, would they sell as well if they cost just as much as an Accord or Camry? I don't think so. Mazda is about to find out if they can sell over the 100K mark with the new Mazda6 using this approach, and abandoning the bargain concept that the current Mazda6 is.
  • cstilescstiles Member Posts: 465
    One significant factor with resale value is whether a car is sold primarily to individual consumers, vs. sold to fleets such as rental car companies and company fleets, which in turn end up being resold as "demos" or "program cars" at drastically lower prices.

    Honda sells virtually no cars to rental car or company fleets, while it is still relatively common to rent a Hyundai, Kia, Mazda, or many of the domestics. Toyota used to sell Corollas and Camrys to companies like Hertz, but they are doing much less of that today.

    One of the reasons why auto sales are down in 2008 is because many companies are cutting back and buying fewer cars in their fleets. Especially trucks, SUVs, and minivans. This is mostly hurting the domestics.
  • bwiabwia Member Posts: 2,913
    It would appear that the Malibu is turning out to be a disaster for GM. I don’t know what GM sales projections were for the Malibu but it is way, way below the competition. Based upon June sales figures from the Wall Street Journal the Malibu is not a serious contender in the midsize class. No kind of excuses can explain such dismal sales numbers as shown below.

    Toyota Camry--- 41,572/ -10.8%
    Honda Accord--- 39,704/ +37.3%
    Nissan Altima --- 24,541/ -5.4%
    Hyundai Sonata-- 16,875/ +11.9%
    Chevy Impala--- 16,671/ -53.5%
    Chevy Malibu--- 13,650/ +86.4%

    By the way the Chevy Malibu May sales were 15,634 which was down from April sales. So the data suggests at that rate Chevy will have to give the Malibu away.

    The percentage changes are from comparable June 2007 sales.
  • 03accordman03accordman Member Posts: 671
    Can anyone explain the dramatic rise in the Accord's sales increase, while most others are going down? I would think that it would have a similar increase/decrease to the Camry at least.

    Good to see Hyundai gain - clearly they have wrought the right changes in the interior - and seeing the new Genesis, I think the next gen Sonata will be something to watch out for.
  • aviboy97aviboy97 Member Posts: 3,159
    It's not the total units sold that dictate a success, but, rather how it compares to what is replaced. In this case, the Malibu is up 86% over June 2007, when GM is at a double digit loss over last June. That tells me that the Malibu has been a success.

    Now, if GM had Camry / Accord sales numbers in their target, then obviously they were way off, and from that stand point, the Malibu is a failure.
  • jeffyscottjeffyscott Member Posts: 3,855
    Of course, fewer of anything will be sold the higher the price, that goes for Honda and Toyota as well as Hyundai and Mazda. This even applies to gasoline...though it had to go up a lot to cause any decline in consumption in the US. While demand for Accords and Camrys might be less price sensitive than that for Mazda6's and Sonatas, I don't think it is quite as inelastic as that for gasoline.

    I could be wrong, but I would assume that the Mazda6, unlike the Sonata did not start out as a "bargain concept". I think this developed over time...though I'd guess it likely always sold for less than a comparable Camry or Accord.
  • aviboy97aviboy97 Member Posts: 3,159
    Yes, but remember, the original question was "I wonder if Hyundai's re-sale value will increase?" My point was that it really cannot if they continue to sell for thousands less then the competition. They will always be worth less then everyone else, which is a direct correlation to how much they paid for it, regardless of how reliable they are.
  • mz6greyghostmz6greyghost Member Posts: 1,230
    Chevy Malibu--- 13,650/ +86.4%

    The percentage changes are from comparable June 2007 sales.


    A "disaster" for GM? Hardly. Not only have they increased their sales (by 86%) from the previous year, when just about all other midsize sales have dropped (even the coveted Camry dropped 11%), but a much-higher percentage of previous-year sales have been to fleets.

    To expect the Malibu to match the CamCord numbers on it's FIRST year of a redesign is simply ludicrous, and I'm sure GM has known this from the start.
  • packer3packer3 Member Posts: 277
    On paper for GM 86% is an increase over June 07, in real sales dollars (after the money that was invested on the new BU) those numbers aren't that great, when they are selling 40,000 BU's a month thats truly a success to the bottom line.
  • thegraduatethegraduate Member Posts: 9,731
    If I've read correctly, the most recent problem with the Malibu has been a strike at a the manufacturing plant in Kansas, restricting production.

    Fairfax Strike on Autoblog.com
  • 03accordman03accordman Member Posts: 671
    Well, the previous Malibu was a failure for GM, no wonder they were 86% less than this June. For the new one, I guess we need more time to be able to assess whether it is a failure or a success. Also, while we don't know what GM internal targets are for the new one, I am fairly sure they would be more than where they are today.

    We can probably call it at the end of the year.....
  • captain2captain2 Member Posts: 3,971
    the most recent problem with the Malibu has been a strike
    and a better but still second rate product - again. The last Malibu was supposed to be the car that 'saves GM' - and it sure did flop. Anybody remember PATCO?
  • 03accordman03accordman Member Posts: 671
    But I wouldn't think that the 'low' sales figures are due to Car shortages, I am sure like other models, GM has quite a few in inventory.

    This is the time for GM to really push; it has put out some very good cars out there in the last year or so (Malibu, Aura, Astra etc.) - high fuel prices should benefit all small cars (not that Malibu/Aura are small, but large SUV owners would see that differently). I do see a lot of Nissan Versas, Toyota Yaris and Honda Fits on the road these days.

    I really think GM should have (Sorry off topic) a parallel Chevy model for the Astra - that seems to be a heck of a good car.
  • thegraduatethegraduate Member Posts: 9,731
    I'd say the Malibu is no longer the bottom of the barrel car it used to be quality-wise. It's no Accord or Camry, but then again, to me, the new Accord and Camry aren't what they used to be either. The Malibu needs a fuel-efficient V6 and a 10% larger interior.
  • captain2captain2 Member Posts: 3,971
    granted it is improved - but, then again, almost anything would have been an improvement. It should tell us all something though when we can look at genuinely competitive efforts like the Sonata and then wonder why our own 'Big 3' could only wish to manufacture something that good.
  • thegraduatethegraduate Member Posts: 9,731
    I'd go so far as to call it "competitive" with the Japanese Big Three.

    Based on my limited time with the models, my ranking would be:

    Altima - Sporty character, right size, great 4-cyl acceleration and economy
    Accord - Comfortable size, best "drive" of the bunch, but too big and stodgy now for this young man
    Sonata - Value leader, pleasing ride and economy, but otherwise a yawn
    Malibu - Easily the most stylish to this young man, decent economy with the 6-speed/4-cyl combo, but lacking room and polish
    Camry - Do I even have to go there? I fall asleep typing about...ZZZZZZZZZZ
  • bwiabwia Member Posts: 2,913
    To expect the Malibu to match the CamCord numbers on it's FIRST year of a redesign is simply ludicrous, and I'm sure GM has known this from the start.

    Perhaps you failed to notice that sales are trending down every month, not up. GM spent over $100 million on sales promotion on this new Malibu, a figure higher than for the Accord, Camry and Altima combined.

    Still, the 86% increase from June 2007 is not a valid comparison as the new Malibu is a totally different car that was expected to appeal to a wider audience including the coveted import buyer. Instead what they got with the new Bu is an older demographic. Well, it won't be long before they turn to the Impala playbook. Heavy discounting and other sales incentives such as zero percent financing and free OnStar and XM for life.
  • captain2captain2 Member Posts: 3,971
    the Ecotec 4 banger I would suggest to you is the Malibu's biggest liability particularily in a class (and at a time) where the 4s far outsell the 6s. The Fusion and Sebring engines are further testament to Detroit's inability to produce good small engines.
  • akirbyakirby Member Posts: 8,062
    The Fusion gets a new 2.5L I4 in December.
  • captain2captain2 Member Posts: 3,971
    even if it is better - too little too late? A good engine of any type is a lot more than what it says on a spec sheet.
  • thegraduatethegraduate Member Posts: 9,731
    If it isn't too late for the Mazda 6, it isn't too late for the Ford Fusion.
  • captain2captain2 Member Posts: 3,971
    well now that's an interesting question - is it too late for the Mazda 6? - or more precisely can the Mazda ever be a major player in this segment - given its definitively limited market segment. The Fusion, at least, is a bit more 'mainstream' and therefore has more of a market presence.
    Wonder what ever happened to plans to put a decent V6 in the Ford. I guess the Mazda 6 gets blessed with something more competitive simply because it sells many fewer copies than the Ford version.
    I'm sure that akirby will be happy to fill us in on the latest 'promise' out of a long list of unfufilled promises.
  • moocow1moocow1 Member Posts: 230
    I think you guys read my question wrong. When I say resale value increase, I mean increase over current resale values. I don't mean having the same resale dollar amount as a Camry or Accord. I don't care about that at all. All I care is the resale amount in comparison to my buy price. That's the ONLY number that matters.

    Hypothetical Example:
    2009 Sonata bought at $16.5k, retail cost 20k, resale value after 3 years at 11k, 33% loss off buy price, 45% loss off retail
    2009 Camry bought at $19k, retail cost 20.5k, resale value after 3 years at 13k, - 31.5% loss, 37% loss off retail.

    Let's say these are the numbers for resale. On a dollar amount, the sonata is worse. On a percentage, the sonata is worse. On the ACTUAL costs, the sonata completely wins. You paid less to start, you paid less overall after selling.

    Nobody freaking actually uses these values. All I ever see is bs with resale percentages and resale based off retail and resale based off completely wrong "True market values". Sonata blows everyone away in costs using legit values that I've calculated myself. This doesn't even include the extra value of having cash from not paying more up front.

    Anyways my original thought is that the sonata might improve from selling for 11k in 3 years to being 11.3k or something. A sensible change due to a better car and increasing interest.
  • backybacky Member Posts: 18,949
    One of the reasons some mid-sized cars are not being sold as much to fleets is because of a choice by the manufacturer to reduce fleet sales. Hyundai has done this with the Sonata, Ford said it would cut back on Fusions going to fleets, and so forth. I still see a lot of Toyotas, including Camrys and Corollas, and also Priuses :surprise: in fleets (specifically Hertz, from which I rent a lot of cars). But since Toyota sells tons of Camrys and Corollas to private parties, the number of fleet sales as a percentage of total sales might be relatively low compared to other makes, even if the number of cars sold to fleets is significant.
  • moocow1moocow1 Member Posts: 230
    How can any car be too late unless it's actually worse than current models? The market will ebb and flow. I can bet you guys that in 10-15 years, the camry and/or accord will no longer be on top. At least one will definitely fall and be replaced by another top selling model. Who knows which of the current pretenders it is. But just like how the Camry and Accord took over the top spot 1990s, someone else could push them off. It's really a matter of gaining the reputation and loyal customers to keep buying your car. Toyota and Honda did that, but the tide seems to be changing for toyota finally. The mazda 6 looks like a very good car actually. Of course mazda itself doesn't have the mindshare or reputation to be a top seller....yet. If they make giant strides over the next 10-15 years, who knows?
  • akirbyakirby Member Posts: 8,062
    Mazda is building their 3.7L in their own factory and in rather small volumes compared to Ford's 3.5L/3.7L which is going in the MKS, Flex, MKX, Edge and MKZ exclusively - that's close to 400K vehicles per year right there.

    The 2010 Fusion gets an improved 3.0L with 240 hp and better fuel economy. It is supposed to get a limited version with the 3.5L also. Add in the hybrid and the new 6 speed trannies for the 4 cylinder models and it's competitive.

    It's a solid car getting a lot of improvements after only 3 years. Nothing to apologize for.
  • backybacky Member Posts: 18,949
    On a dollar amount, the sonata is worse. On a percentage, the sonata is worse.

    Was there a typo in there? Using your numbers, I came out with the Camry doing worse in terms of dollars (loss of $6000 after 3 years vs. Sonata at $5500). Which illustrates the point I made earlier very well--the higher-priced car tends to come out well on depreciation on the percentages, maybe not as well as dollars out of pocket.
  • moocow1moocow1 Member Posts: 230
    Prius certainly isn't hurt by fleet sales ;)
    Then again having the highest fuel economy 4 door vehicle will do that. I'm reminded of the hoarde of ford escape hybrid taxis I've seen. Hybrids will sell just for the fuel advantage.
  • captain2captain2 Member Posts: 3,971
    after only 3 years. Nothing to apologize for.
    now THAT is exactly what the problem is. The reason why the Fusion couldn't have better engines 3 years ago is why??? Ford will never again be a player in this segment if they are always the last to show up at the party.
  • backybacky Member Posts: 18,949
    Is it too late for the Mazda6?

    That is a good question. Based on what I've seen and read about the all-new Mazda6, it should be competitive with the best in class in performance and interior room, offer class-leading styling (subjective of course), a great blend of ride and handling, and be competitively priced with the likes of the Sonata and Malibu. If it's all that and still can't make more of a mark in the mid-sized market, then I don't know what else Mazda can do. Maybe take over Ford? ;)
  • moocow1moocow1 Member Posts: 230
    As long as sales actually start to rise, I think the Mazda6 will be succeeding. The real question is if the momentum will last until the next redesign.
  • aviboy97aviboy97 Member Posts: 3,159
    The Fusion is a dulled down Mazda6 to begin with! The new Mazda6, from what it seems, is ready to play with the big boys. Question is, will it work? That remains to be seen.

    The new Mazda6 is equipped with its new 2.5L, which has gotten rave reviews for smoothness and refinement. According to all who have driven it, it is more then a worthy competitor, and should do very well.
  • captain2captain2 Member Posts: 3,971
    honestly do you believe that Joe Carbuyer even considers Mazda in the same way as he might think of the Camcordima, or even more directly the Malibu or Sonata in the same price category. Styling evaluations are certainly subjective but in terms of ride/handling Mazdas have always been niche vehicles, something they
    best not change unless they want to alienate the few loyalists they do have.
  • backybacky Member Posts: 18,949
    If these Joe Carbuyers are the sheep who wander into their Toyota or Honda dealerships and plop down their money on a Camry or Accord without seriously considering anything else, then I agree with you. But for buyers who pay attention to the market, the Mazda6 (and 626 before it) has been well regarded for a long time. Remember back when the first FWD 626 debuted? It was hailed as the class leader. The first 6 was also well regarded when it arrived--but that was 6 years ago, and now it's no longer competitive with the best in class even though I think it's still a very pleasant car to drive.

    Every indication is that Mazda has made the next 6 more "mainstream" while still retaining the handling and style expected by Mazda afficionados. We'll see if that's enough.
  • auld_dawgauld_dawg Member Posts: 40
    Well........in a market like this, maybe being the last one to plate is an advantage. Would Camry have gained a couple hundred pounds in the latest redesign if it had been known that we'd be looking at $4.30/ gal gasoline now, maybe heading to $5?

    Honda jumped the shark last year, with their redesign. Gained weight, lost mpg with both I4 and V6, and have some issues with the VCM. They're definitely vulnerable now.........

    Of course that remains to be seen.... back in '96 when Ford jumped the shark with their Taurus redesign, they were still midsize sales champs in '96. But afterwards, when it became apparent the new Taurus wasn't as good as the previous design {92 thru 95} sales dropped off, and never recovered. Just possibly Honda is smart enough to quickly recover before the Accord does the same thing........

    I'm not so sure that Mazda's redesign was all that smart at this time too, because again, we have a weight gain. Though only 150 lbs or so.........

    Being later to the table, allows Ford to make hay now {Hyundai could gain too}. If the new 3L is efficient enough {yeah, I know, big question yet}, then Ford having the lighter platform, may very well become the V6 midsize mileage leader. Doesn't sound all that crazy really, when you realize that the '08 Taurus is EPA rated at 18/28 which is better than many in this class, then lives up to it in the "Real World MPG"........If Ford can do the same thing with the Fusion/ Milan, watch out.........
  • bobgwtwbobgwtw Member Posts: 187
    I've driven a rental Aura XR for about 3 weeks - 3700 miles - while my car is in the body shop for repairs. I've been pleasantly surprised by the car;
    good handling, quiet & good ride. Some niggling complaints, poor placement of some controls, reflections on the radio screen, and inadequate mileage. about 28 - 29/5 tops at 65 to 70 mph cruise. I'd consider buying one if the mpg was better.
  • elroy5elroy5 Member Posts: 3,735
    Call us sheep, if you like, but people have been buying Camrys and Accords one after the other, for a long time now. A high percentage of these buyers are well satisfied with what they've been getting (Quality/Reliability). Unless Camrys and Accords start disappointing their owners, they are not going to take a chance on something else. So IMO it's Toyota and Honda's race to loose, regardless what the other manufacturers do. They're all fighting for 3rd place. We see buying another brand as a gamble, and if we had $25-30k to gamble away, we would have bought a luxury car in the first place.
  • akirbyakirby Member Posts: 8,062
    When have you seen Ford put that much work into a mid cycle refresh after just 3 years? Never! At least not in the last 20 years. They're making some changes after just 1 year. This is exactly on par with the market leaders.

    Is Ford 2-3 years late with their new engines? Of course! Why? Poor management decisions of the past. Mulally and Fields are fixing things as fast as they can, but you can't fix everything at once when you have limited funds and resources. Fusion is important but it's more important to have the 3.5L in the crossovers than in a Fusion right now.

    They may be late, but they're finally doing things the right way. Watch how fast they convert truck/SUV plants to produce small cars. The old management ball and chain is gone. The only question is whether they can hang on long enough to implement the changes.
  • backybacky Member Posts: 18,949
    I wasn't calling you or any other individual in particular a "sheep", so don't take it personally. What I was trying to point out is that there are buyers who won't look past the Camcords to even consider a car like the Mazda6, because (as you put it) they consider anything else a "gamble" even though the cars have changed a lot in the past few years. Although it appears the number of those kind of buyers may be declining. Witness the decline in sales of the Camry last month, while others including the Fusion, Malibu, Optima, and Sonata, went up year-to-year. Maybe those buyers don't have $25-30k to "gamble away", but they want a good mid-sized car for $15-20k.

    And it's not 3rd place everyone is fighting for anymore... with the ascent of the small cars, it's more like 4th or maybe soon 5th!
  • elroy5elroy5 Member Posts: 3,735
    And it's not 3rd place everyone is fighting for anymore... with the ascent of the small cars, it's more like 4th or maybe soon 5th!

    Well, I was talking about "midsize sedans" only. Do you see another midsize sedan taking over the number 1 or 2 spot in the next 10 years? I don't. When our friend or neighbor's Malibu is still holding up well at 10 years/150k miles, we might believe the "change" is real.
  • backybacky Member Posts: 18,949
    In the next 10 years? Anything is possible. The Prius is mid-sized, and I could actually see it take the #1 spot within the next 10 years as gas prices continue to climb. Or say the 2011 Civic is up-sized to mid-sized (ala the 2008 Accord being up-sized to full size). Or the next-gen Fulan is a smash.

    Ten years is a very long time. How many people would have predicted 10 years ago that MT would rank a Korean mid-sized car over the Accord, Camry, and Altima, not to mention GM, Ford, and Chrysler? Or that a Korean mid-sized car would equal Accord and Camry in predicted reliability? That would have had to be a lunatic saying things like that 10 years ago. Yes... ten years is a very long time indeed.
  • elroy5elroy5 Member Posts: 3,735
    I don't think MT, or any other rankings (CR, etc.), have much of an effect on sales numbers. If car buyers listened to what "enthusiasts" say, the Camry wouldn't be #1. Not even close.
  • jeffyscottjeffyscott Member Posts: 3,855
    The Prius is not a real mid-sized car. Look at the dimensions, it is similar size to Corolla and other compacts.

    If the roof on my wife's Jetta was maybe an inch higher, it too would be mid-size, according to the EPA's silly definition.

    As Edmunds put it:

    Toyota is fond of pointing out that the EPA classifies the 2008 Prius as a midsize car, just like the Camry. But the Prius is much closer in size to a 2008 Toyota Corolla compact than a midsize Camry...the plain fact is the Prius is 3-4 inches narrower than the Camry, inside and out, and we can feel it the moment we sit in the cars.

    Prius vs. Camry
  • backybacky Member Posts: 18,949
    You haven't been paying attention to the marketplace, then. For example, Elantra SEs have been very hard to get and prices have shot up since CR made it one of their Top Picks. Sales of the Elantra overall surged about 50% in the two full sales months since that article came out. I don't think that was coincidence (although the turn to smaller, more fuel efficient cars certainly helped). The MT comparo just came out. Who knows what effect it will have? Camry sales were down last month, Sonata sales up. That was before the MT comparo was published. I think many car buyers (not you, obviously) do read car reviews and use them as data points. Maybe not enough to make someone buy a particular car, but enough to get them to a dealer to look at a car they might not have considered, had they stuck with their "safe", same-old choice.
  • backybacky Member Posts: 18,949
    Prius is classed as a mid-sized car by the EPA. Look to the right. Mazda6 is there, right? Prius has a hair more passenger space than the Mazda6. Maybe we should dump the 6 off this discussion? And the Legacy is usually considered a mid-sized car. Prius has more interior space than the Legacy too.

    Similarly, Elantra, Sentra, and Versa are classed as mid-sized by interior volume. Personally I could not care how big a car is on the OUTSIDE. What matters to me is how big it is inside. Actually, the smaller the car is outside, and the easier it is to park, the better I like it.
  • dave8697dave8697 Member Posts: 1,498
    So much pain over Camry getting to keep it's no. 1 spot. I have a different perspective. When I go buy my next car I will start looking at a G6. I'll want it at invoice or close to. I'll want $2500 in rebates. I'll want to use my $3400 in GM card earnings that I slowly accumulated over the 7 years since I last bought a new car. I'll expect it to be better than my last new GM, which has needed only a battery in 7 years. I have had experiences where driving a GM for it's full second decade has cost me less than $500 total in repairs, so the 'Gamble' thing is a mystery to me. Being burned by GM for me was when the '98 I have that I bought new needed $325 to fix a/c and then needed $275 to fix transmission all in a 2 year period about 3 years after I was done making payments. To put it short, I buy a new GM for 5-7k under sticker, pay it off in 18 months, then drive payment free for a decade and never have a single repair that ever comes close to the orig loan monthly pmt.
  • oldcemoldcem Member Posts: 309
    If you're willing to drop back to 219 HP, buy an Aura XE with the 3.5 V6. I have one for a business driver, and, she gets 30+ MPG running 75 on the interstate. Yeah, the engine is a low tech V6 with pushrods, but she loafs along at 2000 rpm at interstate speeds and doesn't scream her insides out going up hills.

    REgards:
    OldCEM
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