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Will the Chevy Volt Succeed?

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Comments

  • peraltaperalta Member Posts: 94
    This thing looks very very close to what I just proposed about an ICE with direct mechanical drive and about travel distance logic algorithm with the help of navigation system.

    http://www.motortrend.com/features/auto_news/2008/112_0809_2011_vw_golf_twin_dri- - - ve_preview/index.html

    http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/10/twin-drive-is-g.html
  • reddroverrreddroverr Member Posts: 509
    huh. 12 v 16 kwh for the Volt. I didn't see an mpg mentioned. All things being equal, they are going to have to hit better than 80. Adds a tad bit of complexity for the owner. Must plug in and gas up...and since the engine works daily, you will have to have more maintenance. I wonder how big the tank will be? For the volt many could go without gas except on longer trips. I figure gas going bad might be a problem for some. I like diesels but it is a little harder to find a station as well.
  • stephen987stephen987 Member Posts: 1,994
    Must plug in and gas up...and since the engine works daily, you will have to have more maintenance.

    Huh? More maintenance than what? Doesn't your current car's engine "work daily"?
  • eaton53eaton53 Member Posts: 356
    Yeah, he lost me there. This will probably be the most maintenance free mainstream car yet... most people will do the work based on time, not mileage.

    I understand there will be a program to run the engine occasionally, so even if you never drive past battery range you'll go through a tank a year.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Member Posts: 7,160
    I'm going to guess that the ICE is tuned to the Atkinson cycle since it's been stated that the ICE will run at a constant state in it's most efficient condition. I can see that a smallish 1.4L engine could run be tuned to run @1500-1800 rpms all the time with shutoff when there was little or no load.

    That's essentially what the Prius 1.5L rates on the highway under the old EPA testing cycle. That's also what most drivers get in real life if conditions are perfect and speed is not too high.

    50 mpg is very attainable with a combination of ICE and battery for an extended period....the current Prius is driving proof.

    Essentially what GM has is a vehicle that will be equivalent to the Gen 3 Prius and prolly the new Insight for extended trips with no recharging. However it will also have the flexibility to be a gas-free vehicle for times around home ( or a recharging infrastructure ) where trips are short.
  • reddroverrreddroverr Member Posts: 509
    Referring to the VW in the artilce vs the Volt.

    the vw engine would run after reaching 30 mph while the volt only kicks in after 40 miles driven. Therefore, the VW engine would run daily, while for a lot of people (me) the volt engine would run only a fraction of use days.

    my current car isn't a Volt.
  • peraltaperalta Member Posts: 94
    "the vw engine would run after reaching 30 mph while the volt only kicks in after 40 miles driven. Therefore, the VW engine would run daily, while for a lot of people (me) the volt engine would run only a fraction of use days."

    Not necessarily, if you look at other articles of golf twin drive, it has 82 hp electric motor that can move the car at highway speeds. If the trip is more than 30 miles, the ICE steps in around 30 mph (within the optimum efficiency range of ICE) to mazimize range.

    However, it is ideal to use all the battery juice before the next recharge to the grid where the energy source is cheapest. That is why the integrated navigation comes into play to calculate to deplete the battery just in time for next recharge.

    With battery depleted and the ICE being the sole motive force, the VW will likely beat the Volt in fuel efficinecy by a significant margin.

    However, a current prius with Hymotion add-on lithium battery which is already in the market can run on pure EV up to 30 miles range of up to 52 mph. A more aggressive right foot will quickly summon the ICE for additional power. This thing is already in the market and a number of people (actual owners, not R&D staff) are driving them.
  • tpetpe Member Posts: 2,342
    With battery depleted and the ICE being the sole motive force, the VW will likely beat the Volt in fuel efficinecy by a significant margin.


    My understanding of that article is that the ICE will not be the sole motive force even after 30 miles. Acceleration up to 30 mph will still be provided by the electric motor. If the ICE is directly powering the electric motor up to this speed then that is no different from the Volt. Now once the speed get's past 30 then the ICE will be directly coupled to a one gear (high) transmission. I've driven small cars with small engines. If you shift them into high gear at 30 mph the acceleration is terrible and it's hard to believe it's all that efficient. Probably more electric motor assist going on here that eventually has to be returned by the ICE. In city driving I doubt this VW configuration will provide much, if any, better mileage than the Volt. After battery depletion.

    With this single gear transmission what do you expect the rpms to be at 30 mph? Let's say around 1500. That means at 80 mph the engine would be turning at 4,000 rpms. It's hard to believe that using a single gear throughout this wide range represents efficiency. If it did you wouldn't have seen the evolution of automatic transmissions and CVTs resulting in more speeds that produced higher mpg ratings.
  • peraltaperalta Member Posts: 94
    With this single gear transmission what do you expect the rpms to be at 30 mph? Let's say around 1500. That means at 80 mph the engine would be turning at "4,000 rpms. It's hard to believe that using a single gear throughout this wide range represents efficiency. If it did you wouldn't have seen the evolution of automatic transmissions and CVTs resulting in more speeds that produced higher mpg ratings."

    Remember, the twin drive has a simple start-stop system that can act as generator for low speed driving (series hybrid like the volt). Regarding RPM 1500-4000, you're probably at the ballpark but that's with the use of 1 L turbo gas engine.

    I still stand by my assumption that once the battery is depleted, the VW will have a more fuel efficient arrangement.

    Just like the depleted Volt, both will keep the charge + - 30%, get some juice on acceleration and give it back on steady speed or regenerative braking when slowing down.

    The VW has the adventage of having a mechanical drive for better transmission efficiency from ICE.

    The Volt has the advantage of having longer battery range by 10 miles.

    Both are not yet on the market, the big question is how much will be the purchase price?
  • reddroverrreddroverr Member Posts: 509
    what i read was....

    "The electric motor provides sufficient torque to get the car moving up to 30 mph, at which point the engine takes over with a single gear ratio roughly equivalent to top gear in a conventional car.."

    That was from your second link. I don't know if other articles dispute this point. If it can get 30 all electric and better petrol mileage by a decent amount than a Volt thereafter, it is a very close Volt competitor..
  • peraltaperalta Member Posts: 94
    Well, I did googled more information about VW twin drive and that is how I arrived with 87 hp e motor that is sufficient as sole traction even on highway speeds.
  • tpetpe Member Posts: 2,342
    87 hp e motor that is sufficient as sole traction even on highway speeds.

    This vehicle will probably weigh about the same as the Volt, which is estimated to be around 3200-3300 lbs. A vehicle this size with an 87 hp motor as it's sole source of power would have anemic performance. So I'm sure the ICE would have to supplement this power occasionally even during the first 30 miles, which would make it difficult to burn zero gas. I wonder how seamlessly this would work. Let's say your driving down the highway at 65 mph powered solely by the electric motor. Now you hit the accelerator to pass. The ICE, possibly cold, will have to start and get up to 3000+ rpms before it can provide additional power. There'd have to be a lag involved and I'm not to sure how good it would be for the ICEs longevity.
  • reddroverrreddroverr Member Posts: 509
    Looks like the second link may be a typo.

    From the first link:

    "The Golf Twin Drive's electric-only range is targeted at 30 miles."

    So never mind. Though 30 EV does further limit the desirability...or where the bother (complexity and price) meets the utility.
  • eaton53eaton53 Member Posts: 356
    "However it will also have the flexibility to be a gas-free vehicle for times around home ( or a recharging infrastructure ) where trips are short. "

    There plenty of people in the Southeast who had a gas-free vehicle in recent days.
    Unfortunately they couldn't go anywhere!

    If I were in GM marketing, gas stations with "no gas" signs would certainly be part of my ads in that part of the country...
  • nedzelnedzel Member Posts: 787
    "To continue to operate a Volt, I'd have to have a gasoline powered generator at the house to charge it up each night. Not too promising."

    That is not correct. If the battery is low, the gasoline engine starts up and you can continue to drive the car -- you are just using expensive electricity generated by the gas engine, rather than cheap energy generated by the grid and then stored in the battery.

    If you can't recharge from the grid, the Volt just needs gasoline in the tank like any other car.
  • dms9dms9 Member Posts: 137
    I go 11 miles to work each way 90% of the time. If GM gets this close and makes it affordable and fun, I want one. I'd rather it have all the bells and whistles and be called a Caddy. I will take my wife's minivan if we go on a trip.

    The volt may be more or less efficient than other cars, but the idea that I can avoid sending my money to Iran, Putan or Chavez makes all the difference in the world to me. Most USA electricity is created by Coal (not too clean, but from the USA), natural gas (USA, Canada and Mexico) or nuclear. Even if I don't save any money, those options sound better to me. And remember, most of us would recharge our cars at night, when the grid isn't being overtaxed. So, there is not likely going to be the need to upgrade the grid anymore than we have to already.

    Now, GM, how about building it really really well and not disappointing us who are willing to put our faith in you again? I'm game, if you are!
  • reddroverrreddroverr Member Posts: 509
    GM is very close to bankruptcy.

    I suppose there will be a bailout.
  • morey000morey000 Member Posts: 384
    dms9- your post is right on.

    I just wonder if lower gas prices will kill the viability of the Volt, and that will be the end of GM. Or, will they start to sell SUVs again and be able to make some money?
  • irismgirismg Member Posts: 345
    I have thoughts on this original question of will it succeed. Conceptually, the car works well as a commuter car. Imagine driving to work and plugging the car into an outlet at the parking garage or a college campus - great! Stylistically, I love the looks, but would prefer a wagon or hatchback for added utility. It looks like a car ought to look, though, unlike the beloved Prius. Men may like the beefier styling of the concept car, but I think this will appeal to the scorned female consumer, as well as young people keen to accept new technology. Economically, I have a huge problem with it. From the non-enthusiast perspective, there's no way I'd buy any car of any brand at $40K. I'm someone who wants to spend as little as possible on my transportation, and a person shouldn't have to pay through the nose for several years just to save the Earth. The Earth belongs to low and middle-income people, too; Chevrolet is traditionally the poor man's (and woman's) car in that we get reasonable quality at a reasonable price. As a $40K sedan, Volt just doesn't fit that image, as it would surpass Impala as the most expensive Chevy sedan. People these days have to buy what they need, and I personally don't see ENOUGH people buying Volt just to support a cause.
  • mcribbmcribb Member Posts: 20
    How can it succeed if it cost 40000 or more dollars?????? I hope GM is not counting on sales.
  • eaton53eaton53 Member Posts: 356
    "Stylistically, I love the looks, but would prefer a wagon or hatchback for added utility."

    The Volt is a hatchback.

    "From the non-enthusiast perspective, there's no way I'd buy any car of any brand at $40K. I'm someone who wants to spend as little as possible on my transportation, and a person shouldn't have to pay through the nose for several years just to save the Earth. The Earth belongs to low and middle-income people, too"

    Congress has passed a $7500 tax credit on the Volt, it's a done deal. You may pay $40K up front but then you will get a big chunk of it back.

    I expect early adopter types and well-to-do greenies will quickly snap up the available Volts and those who want cheap will just have to wait until the price comes down, like they did with plasma TVs and Blu-Ray players.

    "Chevrolet is traditionally the poor man's (and woman's) car in that we get reasonable quality at a reasonable price."

    For a number of years Chevrolet was the #1 "true luxury" brand... true luxury being defined as a vehicle with an MSRP over $40K. People don't have an aversion to paying $40K for a Chevrolet as long as it's a good one.
  • stephen987stephen987 Member Posts: 1,994
    For a number of years Chevrolet was the #1 "true luxury" brand... true luxury being defined as a vehicle with an MSRP over $40K.

    Huh? When?
  • tpetpe Member Posts: 2,342
    mini ev

    What I find most interesting here is that there really hasn't been much news about BMW's EV program yet they seem like they'll be the first to have a sizeable test fleet here in the US. You listen to talk from GM and Toyota and they both seem to state that significant engineering hurdles are still left to be cleared before even 40 mile electric range can be offered.

    The Volt isn't going to be a money maker for GM for quite some time, if ever. IMO they would have been far better off getting it on the road as soon as possible through a very limited number of leases like what BMW plans to do. Or what GM is doing with it's fuel cell Equinox. From a PR perspective it would have been valuable and you'd minimize your liability, After a couple years GM would have gathered a lot of real world data allowing them to work out the initial bugs and have a better sense of the battery pack's longevity before going into full production.
  • reddroverrreddroverr Member Posts: 509
    Tough one, tpe. GM lost 15.5 billion last quarter. They need a home run. They are banking that they can pull it off. Maybe it is swinging riverboat gambling. Senor Obama and the mighty ORP syndicate will probably subsidize the hell out of this car. I think a fuel cell at this point is pie in the sky several years to come and no small part of that being the fueling infrastructure. So, it is a different animal and standard production would be insanity. However, a partial batter car seems fully doable...if more complicated than many think. I don't know if they think the battery will realistically come down in price with improvements and larger production runs...I would hope so or it is quite possibly a foolish move. Despite what is happening now, unless it is the end of world, I still think we will see much higher oil prices in a couple years.
  • reddroverrreddroverr Member Posts: 509
    I just read that GM is cutting the first year production waaaaaay back. Just bring the g*dd*mn high mileage diesels over here. PLEASE!
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    GM has to deal with the realities of the market. Can't base your production on thinking the market hasn't changed.

    I think that's the kind of thing that got GM to this point in the first place ;)
  • reddroverrreddroverr Member Posts: 509
    Lutz:

    A: It’s clear the thing is going to cost many thousand dollars more than we had hoped for the first generation technology. So what do we do about that?

    Initially there will be enough demand from rich people, so there won’t be a worry for the first year or two. But if we want to generalize the technology the price has to come down.

    I agree

    Q: Assuming the Volt delivers on expectations and is well-received by consumers, what else could derail GM’s efforts?

    A: Let us say that over the next 18 months the world goes into a major recession, car sales and fuel use drop dramatically, the steel companies produce less steel and therefore use less energy, China finds its main export markets drying up, so they are into a contraction and use less steel and aluminum and plastic. And at the same time Canadian tars sands come on stream, and coal-to-liquids come on stream. All of a sudden there is a reduction in primary demand in petroleum plus all these additional new supply sources, which were started at the time of $140 a barrel, suddenly coming on stream. And oil drops to $25 a barrel and we’re looking at gas pump prices at $1.25 a gallon. I personally don’t think that’s going to happen, but that would be a dramatic event for the Volt because everybody would say, 'Ha! Why
    should I bother?’

    I agree

    If I recall they were talking about 6k cars in 2010. I guess that makes sense and the production continues into 2011 where they hopefully meet the 50k or whatever the initial targets were.

    http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnists/article/501213
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    When the Volt was announced, 2010 didn't look all that far away as far as getting things done in time to have the car ready. Now it's looking like a long time only because of what GM seems like it's going to have to get through just to make it to that 2010 date for release.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    HispanicBusiness.com had a chance to check out the production version of the Volt at the Los Angeles Auto Show. While we weren't allowed to actually take a seat in it, we can't deny the "wow" factor in the outward design of the car.
    http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/news/newsbyid.asp?idx=135644&cat1=auto&cat2=cutt- ingedge

    Color me skeptical, but what the Volt looks like isn't nearly as important as how it performs.
  • reddroverrreddroverr Member Posts: 509
    Sure, but what indeed was there to comment on just being given a look at the car?

    The article was a bit more substantive as well. The engineering team is already looking to simplify and reduce costs of the battery pack. Kinda makes you want to wait for the next gen. Especially since I don't have 30-40k to throw around. I still think in the next several years we will have a good chance of a gas rationing situation. Those few with Volts may well have gotten their money's worth.
  • irismgirismg Member Posts: 345
    Nothing personal, but since you want to argue/dispute, in my opinion that's insane thinking. Even if Congress gives back 7500 dollars as a credit, that's still $32,500 and still too damn much to pay for a commuter car, never mind a Chevrolet! I'd like to know who these "people" you know so well who don't have an aversion to spending that kind of money on such a car, and whether there are enough of them to even count. Chevrolet has NEVER been a luxury car since the 40+ years I've been alive, but rather good, sensible transportation. Furthermore, in my view, the five or six early adopters who buy this thing won't keep GM alive. They're going to have to cut the price in half--at least--before they generate enough sales with it to make it worth their while to continue production of it. In these hard times relatively few people have money for experimentation!

    Of course, if you see things differently, I'll respect that!
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    relatively few people have money for experimentation

    That's the real hurdle isn't it? The Volt sure seems like an experiment right now. And an expensive one at that.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    Production of the Volt going to the UK?

    http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/12/03/uk_govt_blesses_volt/
  • reddroverrreddroverr Member Posts: 509
    unless that move is for euro demand only, it will go over like a lead balloon with the politicians and the american people.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    Even if it's just for Euro production it won't go over well. The Volt was going to be built here with American labor, or so the tale went. Sounds like the UK is sweetening the pot with tax incentives.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    http://www.freep.com/article/20081203/BUSINESS01/81203081
    WASHINGTON — General Motors Corp. will press a Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid prototype into service Thursday on Capitol Hill, where GM Chairman Rick Wagoner will use a prototype to emphasize the company’s technology.

    GM spokesman Greg Martin said Wagoner will drive a prototype Volt wearing the sheet metal of the upcoming Chevrolet Cruze to the Senate committee hearing on the company’s request for $18 billion in emergency loans.

    How much does this help the Volt? Does it not help that it will be a Volt in Cruze's clothing??
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2008/12/november-hybrid-sales-plunge-as- -gas-prices-fall-credit-tightens.html
    Sales of hybrid cars and SUVs took a worse beating than the industry as a whole in November, plummeting 50 percent from a year earlier and off 24.8 percent from October

    This is part of the reason I have trouble seeing the Volt as a savior for GM. I don't see throngs of people flocking to buy a $40,000 vehicle.

    Now to look on the brighter side, the declaration that the recession started in Dec 2007 could be looked on as good news as the average length of a recession is about 14 months, putting us closer to turnaround times.

    It doesn't take much to start the emotional pendulum swinging. If it starts being reported or projected that there IS a light at the end of the tunnel, the mindset of consumers will start to change. Will be interesting to see how specific GM's plans are as far as when they see a return to profitability.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    I know they're saying that it's full steam ahead on the Volt, but doesn't reality slap them in the face and say that the first thing GM needs to do is get the business under control before they start making a $40,000 car that frankly is going to have limited appeal to the general car buying public?
  • michael2003michael2003 Member Posts: 144
    Limited appeal?

    This could still be a significant number of customers.

    While GM used information indicating that ~80% of people have a 40 mi. or less commute to work, does anyone have a more targeted criteria that might take into account how many folks might have access to a recharge station or how many might be be expected to have an income that would allow them to afford this vehicle.

    I would speculate that a significant portion of the population live in apartments/condo's, without access to a plug, and without sufficient income to afford the vehicle. I think it's more likely that folks with sufficient funds and access to a plug (garage) probably have a longer commute, meaning that GM could increase it's target audience by having a greater electric only range battery as an option.
  • reddroverrreddroverr Member Posts: 509
    It isn't the perfect car. Prices will have to come down. I think if it and other ev types start hitting the streets you will see a move towards more charging options. It isn't likely to be the car for the average apartment dweller. But, if thins pick up, I could see incentives via the govt and market incentives for adding a charging station to your public parking lot, or private motel or apartment off street parking.

    Maybe the next generation does have options for larger batteries. The trade-offs in cost for this probably don't work at the moment. Most families have two or more cars. If the option costs less than say $7k...it will probably make financial sense as well as foreign oil or greenie sense..

    http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16769
  • dmathews3dmathews3 Member Posts: 1,739
    The price is a little high for some but I could have saved a lot of money in gas as neither the wife or I drive more than 20 miles one way most of the year. A few trips to see the kids and a vacation would be the only times 99% of the time. I had my heart and pocketbook set on the Volt but not if it isn't built in the U.S. Most Big 3 employees won't buy a non UAW made car and let me tell you we buy a lot of cars.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Member Posts: 9,372
    $40K is more than a little high for a vehicle of limited range that, despite claims that it will suit the needs of a large portion of the population, simply isn't going to be a practical vehicle for most of us.

    Anyone who has kids that do anything is not going for a Volt. Picking up from practices, running around to games and activities, there's no way I could use an electric vehicle with limited range. And I'm certainly not going to shell out $40K for a second car to use it as a grocery getter.

    It may be fashionable to be gung-ho on electric vehicles, but enthusiasm alone doesn't make them practical.
  • dmathews3dmathews3 Member Posts: 1,739
    I was under the impression tha this car could go all the way across the country by using the gas engine to keep the batteries charged. If not what is the since of the gas engine? There would be no sense in even putting it in if it wasn't going to be used to keep the car going beyond the 40 miles.
  • corvettecorvette Member Posts: 10,262
    You know the Volt also has a gasoline engine that will allow it to run several hundred miles, right? After the battery is low, the gas engine (generator) kicks in to provide power for the electric motor.
  • dmathews3dmathews3 Member Posts: 1,739
    That was my impression too. Also whoever is spreading the word of the Volt being built in England is I think way wrong. Everything I can find says at the Detroit plant that builds Buicks and Caddys. The engines at first come from over seas until the new Flint engine plant is done plus the batteries are also now going to be made in Mich. So why would they make a bunch of the parts and I also bet stampings for the fenders etc. here in the USA and then send everything to England to be assembled. Don't make much sense to me.
  • gfr1gfr1 Member Posts: 55
    It appears that there's still much confusiion about the path that the Volt is planning to take. First, they said "over 600 miles", then, over "400 miles", and the latest I've seen is that total range could be up to "200 miles", until the battery & fuel are exhausted. Then, because there aren't really measuring standards yet, it appears, from other's experiences, that real world will get about half to two-thirds the electric only mileage. Then, what about A/C, cabin heat, hills, etc? Also, EPA normally requires the engine and converter to be kept up to temp. Finally, the latest proposal says that the engine will not be able to recharge the battery at all! About the only recharge will maybe be the brake regen. Since thay aren't interested in recharging the battery, they may well forgo the regen., too, so save costs. They want that battery to be charged from the grid and the ICE just is to get you back home. So, that means that the ICE powering the generator, powering the vehicle, will depend on the output of the ICE, and generator, and electric motors, to provide propulsion. So, on extended trips, it'll likely be slow going and not particularly efficient. Imagine getting back home from Los Angeles to Palmdale, up the "Grapevine", for instance! -- GR
  • stephen987stephen987 Member Posts: 1,994
    Also whoever is spreading the word of the Volt being built in England is I think way wrong.

    I think the plan is to build them in the US for American buyers, and in England for European buyers. Make sense now?
  • dmathews3dmathews3 Member Posts: 1,739
    yes it does.
  • ingvaringvar Member Posts: 205
    For 40K+ I better get 135d European Delivery :shades:
  • option7option7 Member Posts: 1
    The base rate in Southern California is 12 cents per KWH up to 10KWH average dailey use. If you use the Volt every day and add 8KWH per day to charge it for a max of 40 miles you will push up your home power useage into tier 3 at 21 cents/KWH, tier 4 at 25 cents or tier 5 at 27 cents. These rates are expected to rise 20% in 2009. This means you will pay at least $2 to $2.40 for every 40 miles in a perfect world. The Volt will need to do better than this to get my buy in. This makes a Honda or Toyota Hybrid much more attractive but still not worth it. The only way to make the numbers work is if the roof has photovoltaic cells on it to charge the batteries off grid. Electric car charging demand will force up utility rates to match closely the value of gas as it rises. Even swap from being held hostage by oil companies to being held up by power utilities......unless you generate DC to charge yourself !
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