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Is Tesla A Game Changer?

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  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    edited November 2013
    Last night on TGUSA, they tested an S Performance vs a standard spec 8 year old design (outgoing model, W221) S550 around a track. The Tesla beat it by something like 3 seconds. I was expecting more.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited November 2013
    I actually parked next to a Tesla the other day and didn't even notice it until I walked to my car on the way back from the store. When a Ferrari is parked next to me, I notice it---but the Tesla looks like a Buick to me.

    It'll get REAL interesting for Tesla if they can pull off the Model E for $35,000 MSRP.

    image

    image
  • bwiabwia Member Posts: 2,913
    but the Tesla looks like a Buick to me.

    Not really, I drive a 2011 Buick LaCrosse CXS, in the same color depicted above, and it looks nothing like the Tesla.

    By the way, Tesla's stock took a beating yesterday, down some $24 per share, even after reporting better than expected third quarter earnings and deliveries.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Looks a lot like it in the photos--roof arc, grille size, lower valence, wheels, rear haunches. I bet I could switch badges and fool 99% of the general public.

    Well the stock price has always been ridiculous. It's just rationalizing. It doesn't mean the company is in trouble. TSLA acts like a tech stock, not an auto stock.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    And so it continues

    I wonder how the stock pumpers and fanboys will explain it away. I wonder how many 2013 7er/S-class/A8s caught fire yesterday. Looks like there might be some kind of design flaw.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,708
    edited November 2013
    The flaw would be the huge battery pack across the entire underside of the car (over eight feet long, about five feet wide). Once it's damaged, you can't 'drain off' all the stored electrical energy. I'd hate to be a fire fighter putting water on it...bzzzzt!
    image
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    but .....but....it's the "safest car in the world".

    Nothing can harm you. Here, wear this ring....:)
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    "Is there a problem with the battery pack, the thing everyone is concerned about? We don't have enough information to tell. We're not yet certain if the pack was involved in the ignition of the third fire at all. But the confined nature of each fire is actually heartening. It tells me that the compartmentalization of the battery pack is preventing the spread of flames back under the cockpit, as designed."

    2013 Tesla Model S: Looking at the Battery Pack From Below
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,708
    Thanks for the link, I had given up on the car reviews when IL went away. Also in the article, the S drops down at highway speed to reduce already low ground clearance even more, for aero benefits. Makes the battery pack that much more vulnerable...
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    A reporter would like to speak to a New York resident who is going to buy a Tesla within the next three months. If you live in the New York area, are currently shopping for a Tesla and plan to buy by the end of January, please send your daytime contact info to pr@edmunds.com no later than the end of business Thursday, November 21, 2013.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    George Clooney Trash-Talks His 2008 Tesla Roadster

    And the pushback on the third fire is pretty fierce.

    Man in Tesla Model S fire: 'I'd buy another one' (CNET)

    And from Wired, "While there are an average of 150,000 car fires in the U.S. each year, with only 19,000 Model S sedans on the road, having three vehicles catch fire in six weeks has garnered plenty of attention.

    Punctuating that point is the fact that neither the Nissan Leaf EV (approximately 70,000 sold) or the Chevrolet Volt gas-electric hybrid (around 50,000 sold) have suffered similar fires."
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Now that I think about it, the next (easy?) step would be for Tesla to turn off the suspension lowering feature for highway driving while they investigate further. That's probably something they could do via software.
  • crkyolfrtcrkyolfrt Member Posts: 2,345
    Of course in doing that, it's going to affect range. There's that word again when we chat electrics..
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Although the Tesla is a far better product than the Tucker ever was, and Musk much more credentialed than Preston Tucker, it is fascinating how these two cars both produced a kind of drama that parallels the other. First Tucker is lauded, then the critics appear, and he goes on the defensive, and then he creates more and more "stunts" to prove the car's worth and then....??

    Well here's where the story is different, in that Musk is not a flim-flam man and he has produced a significant number of cars.

    The eventual outcome? Who can say?
  • crkyolfrtcrkyolfrt Member Posts: 2,345
    True..I'm gonna be watching.

    But cheap shots and excuses he tries on from time to time, has me finding it more and more difficult to wish them well.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well after what the media did to the Corvair, the Audi 5000 and the Prius, I don't blame him for being freaked out.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited November 2013
    Prius?

    If you're referring to SUA, that issue isn't really centered on hybrids I don't think. That hit people with 4Runners, RAV4s and ES350s and other Toyotas and Lexi. I don't think Officer Saylor's loaner ES350 was a hybrid.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    I wonder if he'd buy another without the taxpayer supported gift on an 80K+ car, or if he owns stock and wants to keep the bubble bubbly.

    There's a design flaw, a genius like Musk should address it rather than issue dumb statements.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    Over-50 Toyota drivers. The media needs to do an expose ;)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited November 2013
    Musk is good at spreading pixie dust, and every now and then he really REALLY overdoes it, and stretches credibility.

    PRIUS---not UA, but that big big recall for brake defects. I guess everyone has forgotten it by now.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Does anyone know the extent the fires are having on Model S resale values, as this is potentially very significant to current owners as well as sales and profitability for the company?
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited November 2013
    "The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said Tuesday that it will investigate why two of the expensive Tesla Model S sporty hatchbacks have caught fire this year following accidents in which the battery casing that serves as the undercarriage of the car cracked open.

    Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said the automaker requested the investigation to refute fears that electric cars are more prone to fires than other vehicles.

    The automaker is taking advantage of the car’s electronic capabilities to execute a wireless update to the air suspension that will result in greater ground clearance at highway speeds, Musk said."

    NHTSA launches investigation into Tesla Model S fires (LA Times)
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    Are these things even on the secondary market yet? I thought Tesla had some kind of guaranteed value program.

    I wonder how Fisker Karma values have fared.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited November 2013
    Tesla opened at 119 today. The reason? Some call it Tesla's use of "non-standard financial metrics". One that comes to mind is showing 100% of lease income as revenue up front. Investors don't like that once they find out.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    Looks like their goofy accounting standards won't be able to woo people forever. Kind of a shame, it is still a cool car, but so many sketchy people and claims involved with it.

    I'm still curious to see how it would fare without the undefendable $7500 gift and other subsidies.
  • anythngbutgmanythngbutgm Member Posts: 4,277
    Tesla Model S scores 99 out of 100 on Consumer Reports satisfaction survey

    Stock seems to be rebounding as well... :shades:
  • anythngbutgmanythngbutgm Member Posts: 4,277
    Blankenship has left the building...

    Top exec calls it quits
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    And it even sounds like Elon is getting tired of all the attention.

    Tesla CEO Elon Musk: We Get Way Too Much Attention (Consumerist)
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Rebounding? You must be looking at a different graph than I am.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I think once everyone sobers up, including owners, they'll come to realize that driving an EV is still a pain in the butt at times. Look at it this way: you need to spend 1 minute of fill time for every 10 miles you drive. Would you really consent to that in a gasoline car?
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    I saw Musk on TV today stating that his car has less fire risk than gasoline cars. Of course, he's using the entire fleet in general, and not making it apples to apples and narrowing it down to >16 month old 80K+ cars.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    There are not enough Teslas on the road, nor have they accrued enough road time, to make such a claim.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    They've sold a couple thousand, right? We could compare to 2012+ cars in the same price range and type.

    And yeah, I see I typo'd my >/< symbols ;)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    You'd also have to compare not only to like kind of car, but also to like mileage and driving conditions and reasons for the fires. Tesla fires are related to collision, not say other common causes of car fires---some cars just catch fire while driving, others in the garage, some due to old age and neglect, etc.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Yes, mileage. Any comparison should be adjusted for mileage.

    It would be interesting to know the average monthly mileage for Tesla S models compared with other cars in its price range.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    That would be interesting. I would guess that it would be less, due to...well...range anxiety issues limiting the use of the vehicle.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    From what I can see, some amount of luxobarges don't get miled up either. Not hard to find low mileage ones out there.

    The collision angle is funny, seeing as the Tesla fire in my area happened via glorified road debris, which probably wouldn't have destroyed a similar car in the same price range.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    gas fires and electrical fires are very different in nature, so the only proper way to compare car fires is to compare # of Tesla fires to # of Leaf fires.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    have there been any reported Leaf fires? I haven't read of any.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    But Musk was dismissing Tesla fires by claiming gasoline vehicles have a greater risk of fire - while of course not narrowing it down to vehicles that are actually similar to his car (let's say mid year 2012+ cars costing 80K+).

    That being said, I don't recall Leaf fires under similar circumstances, nor know if the media would jump on them as hard, nor if the construction (floor) of the car is such a potential design issue in that car.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited January 2014
    No Leaf or Volt fires, other than the Volts that caught on fire in storage hours to weeks after the NHTSA crash test. (Probe of Chevrolet Volt fires ends; safety regulators OK GM's fix) (LA Times)

    Nissan: "There Have Been No Fires Involving the Nissan LEAF" (insideevs.com)

    The Karma made headlines a year ago:

    Fisker Reveals Cause of Karma Fires During Hurricane Sandy

    There are several other reports of Karma fires, including one that damaged a home.

    The ones I remember were BMW fires; there was a big recall for various models.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    edited January 2014
    "Tesla Motors Inc. said Monday a German probe of three recent fires in Model S electric sports sedans found 'no manufacturer-related defects.'"

    German authorities had requested data on the incidents from the company, according to a statement on Tesla's web site.

    The investigation found that 'no further measures under the German Product Safety Act [Produktsicherheitsgesetz (ProdSG)] are deemed necessary,' according to Tesla's statement."
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited December 2013
    However, Reuters did put in an interesting comment about the report (sent to Tesla in German) ...it said: "...as translated by Tesla".
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    edited December 2013
    Good point, but if Tesla's translation is inaccurate someone who's fluent in German will surely correct it. In the meantime, while the stock market futures are down this morning, pre-market opening indications for Tesla are up 7.75, to 131.92. Time will tell whether this rise represents a dead cat bounce or a turn-around. I continue to think the stock remains somewhat overvalued, even after the sharp pull-back of recent weeks, but that wouldn't prevent it from rising in the near-term.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited December 2013
    I don't think it's "somewhat" overvalued, I think it is monstrously overvalued. But as long as investors don't think so, what I think doesn't matter much :)

    You can see from the way the stock behaves that it's much more like an irrationally driven tech stock than it is like an automobile stock. It could jump 30 points or drop 50 and people would find that normal.

    I'd like to see the original letter in German--I don't believe it contains anything markedly different from what Tesla said, but I was curious is there were other qualifying words in there that hinted at further monitoring.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    edited December 2013
    I wonder how many people who downplay the valuation own stock - probably most of them. Good point about the behavior - securities linked to heavy industries usually don't behave like that.

    I'd like to see the original letter too - wouldn't surprise me if it is unavailable. The Germans probably say based on the data supplied (by Musk himself), everything is fine - or that they didn't go on site to perform an investigation, so they can't make a negative declaration.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Some ideas from Forbes:

    At current value, the stock valuation equates to each Tesla being worth about $1.1 million dollars. A BWM with its market cap is worth about $28,500 per car and Mercedes $43,000 per car.

    GM's price per car, even with its market cap at more than double Tesla's is about $5,400, or 1.5% of Tesla's per car value.

    Something is way out of whack here.

    And of course, Toyota BMW et al are not going just stand around and let Tesla gouge the EV market.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    There's a copy of the letter on the website (nothing at the KBA).

    German Federal Motor Transport Authority (Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt) Concludes Review of Model S Incidents (Tesla Motors)
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,167
    Interesting, so it really gives no details. I can believe it.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited December 2013
    The upshot is that it's not an issue because no one would dare to toss trailer hitches or other trash on the Autobahnen. :shades:
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