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Comments
It doesn't silence anyone if you think about it. This is all "future-geek". A current (no pun intended) Tesla owner can't find a battery swapping station right now.
Furthermore he pays for the battery swap, and then pays again when he has to return the battery to the station he got it from. If he chooses to keep the new battery, he pays a differential on the age of the battery he swapped.
Don't use a chain saw to cut a butter. This battery swapping, to me, is an extremely clunky solution to a real problem.
Reminds me of what TUCKER did--they did demos on 30 minute engine swaps.
Supercharging stations make more sense.
And "supercharging" is not "free" as the video says. You need to install the supercharging option when you buy the car, for I think some $2000 bucks extra.
What is really going on here is that the swap stations are a profit generator for the company, essentially a hidden service fee on your car.
Once again, you aren't saving a dime by driving a Tesla.
I think this is all great and I hope the company succeeds, but this hype about it replacing the gasoline car, or being more "efficient" than one, is simply hyperbole.
That said, it does make sense for Tesla's attempt to keep a flow of positive type news about the car and downplay that it's entirely reliant on batteries and/or a recharge, and to not be perceived as a deal-breaker for those who are tempted by the car but may talk themselves out of it because of the complications incurred if they wanted to tour. Tesla is simply wanting to keep stock prices increasing progressively and one way to do that is to attempt to stifle any negative perceptions of its 2nd greatest weakness. No harm in trying to nip things in the bud by throwing the extended-range-by-progressive-infrastructure card out there.
One downside of marketing a very high tech product for its status appeal is that "there is no tech as old as old tech", and so in a few years when the Tesla (should it still exist) is improved further, your old Tesla S model might be a bit of crate on the used car market.
I think Tesla biggest problem is going to be plug-in hybrids. You can buy a Ford right now with a combined range of 620 miles on one "fill-up" for 1/2 the price of a Tesla, and while it's not a luxury car, it's not some cheap piece of work either. It has lots of oohs and aahs on the dashboard, too.
I think it is the other way around. The biggest problem with hybrids is Tesla. The whole idea behind electrics is to wean ourselves of synthetic oil, especially imported oil from the Middle East and the Americas.
There is a finite source of dino oil and with China and India becoming such voracious users of petrol it won't be long before we are brought to our knees with another oil shortage problem. In terms of range, 300 miles is plenty for everyday work commute. And even for the occasional long trip, it is only 200 miles from Boston to New York. Anything farther to Washington D.C. for example would require a free 20-minute charge or a NINETY second battery swap.
There's no "oil shortage" in America. Fuel oils are our largest export at the moment.
If the point of Tesla is to conserve fuel, then it is answering a question that nobody is currently asking.
Now, if you mean lowering emissions and noise in URBAN areas, that is very well addressed by EVs--which suggests to me that the best use of EVs is urban, short-distance use.
I think the idea of developing EVs for long distance use of no discernible advantage.
PS: Tesla re-charges are not "free"---you have to equip the car at purchase for "supercharging", so you can add $2000 immediately to your annual fuel costs.
Something about never having to visit a gas station again is intriguing. Call me a Geek, but I love ingenuity the futuristic stuff like that. Heck, the Nissan Leaf has caught my attention as just a cheap little back and forth commuter for me over the past year or so, same with my wife. 70 miles on a charge is plenty and my company is contemplating adding a "Juice Bar" to the front parking lot to encourage green motoring. Clears up some of the "range anxiety" for a few of us.
The Tesla just happens to come in a sexy wrapper...
Could Outmoded Phone Booths Become E.V. Charging Stations?
Well the NY Times has looked into the possibility.
"New York City is full of dormant, albeit still electrified phone booths. Some say the unused infrastructure could be repurposed for electric vehicle charging."
http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/08/14/could-outmoded-phone-booths-become-e-- v-charging-stations/?ref=automobiles
Because it'll probably get stranded in an inch of snow? It also has a very minimalist interior, not as striking or as posh as a BMW, Audi, Lexus or Merc... Lastly, there is that nasty dispute between Tesla and the Dealers union which is doing everything it can to make buying a Tesla as difficult as possible...
Or am I missing a bit of sarcasm with your post?
Cool to see though, a company led by an innovator who is all about the product, vs ones with endless scores of useless execs and middle managers who can only think about costs and stocks.
Toyota has millions of Prius on the roads and many with crazy mileages and few issues over the years. But that is after 15 years of history and reputation. Heck, look at Fisker, pretty much dead... For Tesla, the model S is brand new, the model X isn't even here yet. Still got a ways to go...
Me, I'm still kicking myself for talking the wife out of buying shares in Tesla when it was trading in the 40 dollar range...
At the moment it's got a "1" in front of that number.
I agree completely with your second paragraph.
I'd pick my car simply because it costs nearly half as much, has a lease aided by the maker, and has potential for ~800 mile range. It's not as cool, but also more affordable, and for now, practical. Not really apples to apples with a Tesla though - the Tesla is its own thing. More interesting than a mid lux car, not a barge like a large lux car.
Since the Tesla has far fewer moving parts than internal combustion engine cars, I expect it to be reliable. I could be tempted by the 3-Series competitor that Tesla plans to introduce around 2016.
But Tucker himself was a great showman, that's for sure.
Musk does not seem to share Tucker's arrogance or talent for making enemies, however.
Tucker antagonized the Big Three, then ridiculed them, and he started annoying some very powerful people in Washington with his provocative big mouth.
Tucker's worst enemy was only himself. The little mouse can only pull the tiger's tail so many times.
Telsa is cutting edge hi-tech. Tucker's *dreams* were innovative but not his actual cars.
The CBS This Morning camera crew came to the 3rd floor at Edmunds today to speak to Jessica Caldwell for a feature due to air tomorrow morning about Elon Musk and Tesla. Film at, I dunno, 7?
By "normal" automaker standards, Musk is a very small player. And to some, he's cheating at cards. Between tax breaks for each car and the emissions credits, it's pretty clear that the company can only make money at this point by living off taxpayers and other automakers.
And at $80K a pop, vast increases in sales aren't that likely.
According to a Tesla sales manager, they expect prices to drop to the $40K range in a year or two.
By the way, I posted this on another thread but I just wanted to share my experience with the Tesla acolytes and skeptics.
Last Friday, I spent about an hour at the Tesla showroom in Natick, Massachusetts (the Natick Mall). I must say it was a pleasant experience. There was only one Model S on display as well as the bottom frame and skeleton of a second car displaying the battery pack, suspension system, and electric motor, etc.
Our host, an electrical engineer, explained every facet of the car from the tires to the onboard electronics. Oops, I forgot to ask if one has to be an engineer to sell these cars. Nonetheless, until recently they could only show the car but now they have a license to sell cars in Massachusetts, completely bypassing a dealer network.
And that makes sense as the car does not require routine maintenance as is common with cars with an internal combustion engine. He said, if the car is damaged in an accident, they have an arrangement with Audi to do repairs since Audi is highly skilled with working on aluminum frame vehicles.
To say I was impressed would be an understatement because the Tesla Model S is perfect in every way--just the right size and feel. Too bad there were no cars available for a test drive.
I visited that place in Natick about a year ago. Sure, it seems kinda tacky (to me) to have a dealership in a mall but it was pretty neat to be able to check the car, see how the thing actually works, browse the options, etc all without any sales pressure at all.
I'm looking forward to the Model X myself. My wife loves the idea of electric cars and to have the utility and the bonus of AWD is a huge plus for us.
That's simply not possible unless they offer a) a vehicle other than the S model and b) this model has a much shorter range OR c) there is a startling breakthrough in battery technology that nobody right now knows about.
If the Tesla plan is B (shorter range so as to cut production costs), then they should look first to the fate of the Nissan Leaf.
EVs with 75 mile range don't sell.
Musk has the vision to bring a smaller car to market in 3 years or so at a better price point, will be interesting to see if it happens.
The price estimates factor in the EV $7,500 tax credit. Starting at the bottom.
#10 The Honda Fit EV. With about only 300 sold, you can only lease it. It's $259 a month with unlimited mileage. It's 82 mile electric range is higher than some of the pure EVs on the list. It may be available only in select markets.
#9 The Toyota RAV4 EV. With about 400 sold it starts at about $43,000. It has a Tesla battery giving it a decent 103 mile range. It does not have four wheel drive.
#8 The Mitsubishi Imev. With about 900 sold, you can get one for about $21,000. The range is 62 miles. The Nissan Leaf is tough competition for the I with greater range and a similar price.
#7 The Ford Focus EV. With 900 sold and a price tag starting around $29,000, it has a 76 mile range. It looks very similar to the gas powered Ford Focus with a top speed of 84 mph.
#6 The Ford Fusion Energi. This plug-in hybrid has sold close to 1,600 units. You can get one for about $38,000. Because the battery is smaller, the tax credit also is smaller. It has a decent initial 21 mile electric range and seating for 5.
#5 The Ford C-Max Energi. Another plug-in hybrid from Ford with a 21 mile electric range. This $30,000 hatchback has sold about 2,500 units. It competes with the Plug-in Prius liftback in price.
#4 The Toyota Plug-in Prius. The hybrid king now has a plug-in. With about 4,200 sold, you can get one for about $30,000. The EPA rated electric only range is 6 miles. You have to look closely at the window sticker. Many people believe the EPA rated it as 11 electric miles but that rating involved using gas.
#3 The Nissan Leaf. With about 9,800 sold, a 75 mile electric range, its one of the cheapest electric cars out there for about $22,000. The Leafs sold in the states are now American made.
#2 The Chevy Volt. It's the plug-in hybrid king with about 9,900 units sold. It has a 38 mile pure electric range before the engine comes on. The Volt's larger battery size gives the full $7,500 EV tax credit. You can get one for about $32,000. The average Volt driver gets about 120 mpg and drives most of the time in electric only mode.
#1 The Tesla Model S. What is said to be one of the world's greatest cars happens to be all electric. Tesla has sold 11,000 in six months despite it's high price. You can get one for $63,000 to $73,000 depending on the chosen battery size. The EPA electric ranges are 208 or 265 miles. Tesla owners have free car charging for life at any of the Tesla Supercharger stations. You can charge 200 miles in 30 minutes.
Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cetRkwUg7Q8
a. Honda and Toyota don't need to sell a lot of EVs to survive. They don't need to sell any EVs to survive
b. Teslas do not compete with plug-in hybrids. Different market.
c. Teslas are still heavily subsidized by federal and state tax credits and by emissions credits. Once all this dries up, then what?
3. The # of supercharger stations right now is under 20 for the entire country
4. Tesla cannot survive selling 21,000 cars a year under their current business plan. Given their stock price and current products and time line for future plans, it simply doesn't add up.
Sure, but what is stopping them from selling the platform to other carmakers like say, Audi which at the moment is in its infancy with Electric tech and is already familiar with it due to the above mentioned accident agreement? or Toyota, who sold them the NUMMI plant from which the Teslas are built?
Could be a brilliant next step towards building the Tesla portfolio.
No matter how you cut it, it's a tough row to hoe.
Many a brilliant, capable and wealthy man has put his arm in the automotive shark tank, with predictable results.
Did Henry Kaiser know how to build machines? You bet. Did John Delorean know about marketing and manufacturing? Sure did.
Even successful indie car makers fail, because their corporate structure falls down around them----Zimmer comes to mind.
The automobile business eats men alive, always has, always will. Is Musk up to the challenge? Well, he's an impressive guy, what else can I say?
That's a bad idea as it will irreparably dilute the Tesla brand. Tesla is a development stage company where losses are common in the first five years of development. In the last quarter, excluding one-time items, the company did turn a profit. Yes, the magic word, PROFIT.
Tesla cannot be a Toyota overnight in terms of sales volume, nor should it be. It has developed a profitable niche market in BEV's and that's where it should play. So far, its model is working just fine. High margin and high turn-over, thank you very much.
And this brings me to a common business mistake, following the advice of pundits who know very little about Production, Marketing and Finance. Too many a successful small business (e.g. bakery, flower shop) fail because of the unreasonable expectation to be a big business overnight. Stay the course Tesla, you are over hump in terms of technical feasibility, now execute with precision.
I guess I was too quick to name Toyota, because I recalled when they sold the HSD to Nissan for the Altima hybrid.
I don't think Tesla will see Toyota volume in my lifetime, they are just too small and niche and I don't think they can even produce enough vehicles to hit 2.25 million that Toyota is predicting in the US alone... And I agree that their current path is working.
The high margins are worth examining. If you take away the tax credits, the current gross margin is 2.3% says the Motley Fool.
Also, in addition to tax credits, Tesla benefits from a low marketing budget due to great publicity.
But note---these benefits are not scaleable. If Tesla wants to ramp up production, it will a) lose all the tax credits and b)need to advertise heavily and c) increase production costs and investment.
By any stretch, a company that has a market capitalization of over $13 billion dollars should be producing at least 50,000 cars a year, I'm guessing.
The P/E forecast for Tesla next year is 243 !! (Nasdaq)
By any rational standard of measurement, this company makes no sense whatsoever to me.
Toyota and Mercedes have ownership stakes in Tesla, although neither stake is major. Actually, it's not clear to me whether Mercedes' stake is in the Tesla company or in a major supplier to Tesla.
In any event, Tesla is going to have to "make a move" somewhere...either downscale or sideways into hybrids, or more diversification.
Look what Amazon did to stay alive. Now they sell toilet paper.
(Bloomberg) --"Tesla Motors Inc. CEO Elon Musk said the electric-car maker intends to add factories in Europe and Asia, anticipating volume gains from a planned mass-market battery car.
The company this year plans to make at least 21,000 of its $70,000 Model S premium sedans at its Fremont, Calif., plant, and double that in 2014.
While the factory has capacity to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles a year, the addition of a smaller electric car priced about half that of Model S will require additional plants, Musk said.
'We'll try to locate those close to where people are, close to where the customers are, to minimize the logistics costs of getting the car to them,' the Tesla co-founder said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. 'I think long term you can see Tesla establishing factories in Europe, in other parts of the U.S. and in Asia.'
Tesla, named for inventor Nikola Tesla, has been an automotive phenomenon this year, with its shares surging more than fourfold and its market value exceeding some established carmakers such as Fiat S.p.A., the majority owner of Chrysler Group.
Tesla expansion
Musk provided no details on how much or when Tesla would invest in more factories.
The company has opened a small facility in Tilburg, Netherlands, where it's assembling Model S components shipped from California to Europe, for cars it has begun selling there.
While Tesla's next vehicle, the Model X electric SUV, goes into production at Fremont late next year, the timing of the smaller, lower-priced vehicle, isn't firm.
'Certainly, within five years we'll have our mass-market electric car available,' Musk told Bloomberg. 'We'll start seeing hundreds of thousands of electric cars going to market every year.'
Musk, in previous interviews, has said the lower-priced car would arrive in about three or four years.
Trademark application
The company this month filed an application with the U.S. Patent and Trademark office to use the name Model E for an automobile.
Shanna Hendriks, a Tesla spokeswoman, declined to comment on whether that's intended for the still-unnamed mass-market electric car."
Your thoughts?
Also, I'm still not "getting" how he plans to produce an entry-level car without reducing the range of it, given that the number and type of batteries are a major production cost, nor how he plans to fund a major marketing campaign against increasingly efficient plug-in hybrids.
If plug-in hybrids could double their EV range in the next few years, Tesla is toast IMO.
OHHHH----"MODEL E"....no, no, in the name of all that is holy, don't use that name! (E= Edsel, once championed by Ford as the "E CAR")
Tesla has been silently raising the cost of options on the S, so the price is creeping up as we speak.
I'm sure Musk wants the number to be $100 Billion though.
Notice that hardly a day goes by without an important announcement, always very positive. Some are warranted, but there seems to be a good dose of PR too.
If the X and the E are as good, adjusted for price, as the S is purported to be, then I'd become a solid Tesla fan. I might even buy an E. Also, if the E is really good no one would make the connection with the Edsel. Only a tiny percentage of car buyers even remember the Edsel.
Good marketing strategy.