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Is Tesla A Game Changer?

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  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited March 2014

    If my transmission goes, I don't have any choice about fixing it either. Last I looked, transmissions were full of sensors - aka electrical gizmos.

    It'll be just like the laptop - get towed to the repair shop.

    Although, if I call OnStar or Tesla, they may be able to remotely reboot the system and at the least get me into limp mode.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    Well maybe, but we knuckeheads are not going to be taking our Teslas apart to fix them.

    Telsas have plenty of parts that need service---brakes, suspension, lights, glass, wipers, tires, washing, waxing, upholstery cleaning, weatherstripping, bodywork, paintwork. It's hardly a care-free thing to own.

  • isellhondasisellhondas Member Posts: 20,342
    edited March 2014

    Saw THREE Teslas just yesterday in my neighborhood!

    I still don't get it!

    We may see the day when traditional brick and morter businesses go the way of the dinosaur.

    Consumers think that buying new cars direct is a "good thing". No greedy dealers that just might make some evil profit. Yep, they may someday just buy direct and pay full MSRP!

    Recently a landmark bookstore in my hometown closed it's doors after over 100 years. The oldest independent book store in the Los Angeles area.

    A kid I went to kindergarden and his 95 year old mother finally had to close unable to pay the rent.

    They somehow managed to survive Barnes and Noble, Borders, Amazon and others by providing PERSONAL SERVICE to their loyal clients. Finally the Kindles and Amazon spelled
    doom for them and Williams Book Store is no more.

    I guess it's true...All things must pass.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited March 2014

    @MrShift@Edmunds said:
    Telsas have plenty of parts that need service---brakes, suspension, lights, glass, wipers, tires, washing, waxing, upholstery cleaning, weatherstripping, bodywork, paintwork.

    Yeah, but all cars need that stuff. But no oil changes or "tune-ups" (other than the automatic software updates) would be nice.

    @isellhondas, as the independent booksellers (and other stores go away), prices will go up. People are already complaining about the increase in book prices from Amazon and they also complain that they can't find the book they want to read for sale anywhere else.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    I don't think 10,000 mile oil changes and 100,000 tune-ups are that much of a burden to the average driver.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454

    Well, we bugged out of town at the last minute last week and my usual guy didn't have time to squeeze me in for an oil change (I was at 8k, just a bit overdue, but still wanted to do the oil before we left town so I wouldn't have to mess with it on the road).

    Okay I usually do them myself anyway. But not when my garage is around 14°F as it was the other day. Then the road salt and crud had welded the filter on tight and I had to mess with that flat on my back off and on for a good 30 minutes, since I lost my filter wrench. I think I've done my last one of those, whether I ever get an EV or not. Nasty job in a home garage.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    I always said that an oil change is the one job where I am so happy to pay someone else to do it. Well, that and the Roto Rooter guy. I always feel I got my money's worth.

    synthetic oil, factory filter, new oil plug (mandatory) blow out air filter, computer scan, rotate the tires, check the oil, check the coolant, check the brake fluid, look around underneath, check the brake wear, wiggle the exhaust, fill the washer fluid, wash the car and vacuum---BOOM! $110 bucks out the door!

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,097

    Funny, I have no childhood memory of my dad ever taking a car in for an oil change. He always did it himself, even if it made a mess and could be annoying with difficult to reach parts. I think he got some kind of sense of accomplishment or maybe even relaxation out of it, like people get from gardening or cleaning a car.

    I have no desire to do it myself. No real place to do it, and the mess is a pain.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    "Will Ford Sell Cars For Tesla?"

    A ****24/7 Wall St.**** blog suggests that this arrangement might make a good fit. The reasoning is that while the Lincoln brand is struggling to reestablish itself in the premium market, and sales are sluggish, Tesla is allegedly selling all the Model S cars it can make. If Tesla should succumb to distributing its cars through an authorized dealer network, it could make sense to team up with Ford through its Lincoln dealers. The two premium brands could share the expenses of the dealerships, thereby lowering costs for both. They models wouldn't compete directly because the target markets of the two vehicle lines are very different.

    This sounds a little crazy at first thought. Of course, there would be tradeoffs, but the net result might make sense for Ford and Tesla, at least for a few years. Each company would remain independent, other than for this dealer sharing arrangement.

    Your thoughts?

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    Tesla needs a dealer network or the buyer is screwed. Who is going to service these cars, or answer complaints and do warranty work? Would you really want to have to call General Motors to complain about something? Factory service centers? How many could Tesla afford to equip and man? What about the highly profitable used car market?

    The business model of direct sales makes no sense!

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,097
    edited March 2014

    That's something to think about with Tesla - service. Are there many garages for them? I know they are relatively new cars that shouldn't yet need much intense work, but as time goes by, some will mile up and components will wear out. Would a Ford dealer take that on? I don't think I can drive to my local Tesla dealer in the second level of a mall for servicing.

    That shared sales idea could be workable, and wouldn't hurt the Ford/Lincoln image.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited March 2014

    Here's another problem Tesla (and all EVs) might have to face:

    http://simanaitissays.com/2014/03/16/quick-charge-quick-degradation/

    Tesla claims, or rather, I read where someone claims that Tesla claims, that their batteries are liquid cooled and therefore not subject to degradation. That sounds unlikely, although the numbers could be less than for the Nissan Leaf. I'd like to see this guy test a Tesla.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    @fintail said:
    That's something to think about with Tesla - service. Are there many garages for them? I know they are relatively new cars that shouldn't yet need much intense work, but as time goes by, some will mile up and components will wear out. Would a Ford dealer take that on? I don't think I can drive to my local Tesla dealer in the second level of a mall for servicing.

    That shared sales idea could be workable, and wouldn't hurt the Ford/Lincoln image.

    The arrangement could be that it would be Tesla's responsibility to service and repair Teslas and Ford would be responsible for Lincolns. The two brands would share dealership facilities, including trade-in and certified pre-owned departments. They wouldn't have to share sales people.

    Tesla and Lincoln would complement each other because very few customers would cross shop them.

    Lincoln appears to be stuck, and desperately needs a shot in the arm. It's struggling to compete because its vehicles are unexceptional rather than aspirational. Meanwhile, Tesla might benefit from an established distribution channel, in addition to the direct distribution model. Sharing dealership facilities may be an out-of-the box solution that could benefit both brands. It would most likely increase showroom traffic, thereby potentially benefitting Lincoln, buying time until Lincoln introduces more compelling products. For prospective Tesla buyers it would allay the concerns of those who feel more comfortable buying from a dealer instead of directly from the company.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    Tesla needs dealers. I can't imagine a factory fulfilling the 24/7 service needs of customers, especially those far from the factory stores (which obviously will not be anywhere near as numerous).

    On the other hand, I think you'd be kind of nuts to invest in a Tesla dealer franchise, so maybe factory stores will be the company's only real option for survival short-term.

  • isellhondasisellhondas Member Posts: 20,342

    Wow, this must be the land of Teslas! I saw FOUR on Thursday in my neighborhood. All different colors! Sorry, I just don't get it!

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,097

    I see that many every day, day in day out, in Bellevue. They are a very trendy thing for the local 1%.

  • bwiabwia Member Posts: 2,913

    @fintail said:
    I see that many every day, day in day out, in Bellevue. They are a very trendy thing for the local 1%.

    I saw a black one at dusk--whoa, this creature looks beautiful at night. Sort of reminds me of a panther on the prowl.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    For the first time I saw two Teslas at the same intersection yesterday, coming from different directions.

    A day doesn't go by that I don't see at least one Model S, leading me to believe that it's the latest luxury car status symbol.

    Haven't heard much about the so-called $5 billion giga lithium ion battery factory lately, though. An article in last week's Barron's said that the giga factory is too ambitious. Also, the chief automotive executive for Panasonic, the front running potential partner for this factory, suggested that Panasonic is somewhat wary about the viability of this mega project. This factory is key to Tesla's ability to effectively break into the higher end of the mass market, to become a credible 3-Series competitor.

    The giga factory is a chicken and egg situation. Tesla is counting on this factory to reduce its battery costs by ~30%. Without it Tesla doesn't have the competitive advantage to muscle into the mass market. However, Tesla has to sell 500,000 cars per year to justify the $5 billion investment. This makes the giga factory a risky moon shot.

    Tesla stock entered bear territory last week, suggesting that investors are apprehensive about the company's valuation, and on Musk's ability to execute on his grandiose ambitions than when the stock topped out at 265 recently.

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,097

    Tesla is definitely a trendy status symbol right now - and are probably the new "thing" in Silicon Valley and the Seattle-Bellevue tech havens. If I had the money for such a toy (as I don't see them being used as replacements for other high end cars), I might do it myself. If I had such money though, I might just get a new S-class, which is pretty amazing itself.

    I am hoping Tesla plays hardball with a few certain states in regards to dealer operations - wooing them with a factory by making them change their rules - then moves elsewhere. Sometimes you have to fight jerks with jerkiness.

    Mass market is the final frontier.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    @fintail said:
    Tesla is definitely a trendy status symbol right now - and are probably the new "thing" in

    I am hoping Tesla plays hardball with a few certain states in regards to dealer operations - wooing them with a factory by making them change their rules...

    Mass market is the final frontier.

    Musk appears to be on a crusade regarding direct sales. Opposition seems to be crumbling. I don't think government should interfere with how manufacturers distribute their product, unless there's a consumer safety issue. In this case the laws are for the dealers' protection, although the original intent may have been, at least partially, to protect dealers from unfair practices by the auto manufacturers.

    Time will tell whether Tesla succeeds with direct sales, but they should have the freedom to try it. If it's a good business model the consumer will benefit, and if it isn't Tesla will default to authorized dealer distribution.

    The mass market will be more difficult for Tesla than the high end market because the middle and low ends are fiercely competitive. Also, whereas the Model S caught the industry by surprise, by now all the major manufacturers have heard the wake-up call. They're well aware of what Tesla's plans are. In some ways it's comparable to when Toyota launched the Lexus Division. The Germans took a hit but came back stronger than ever.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited April 2014

    Without a comprehensive service network, Tesla's plan is toast, IMO. Electric cars need service and maintenance just like any other car---and warranty claims, etc. So either Tesla funds all the dealers out of their own money (and I don't think they have enough to do that), or they'll have to authorize franchises.

  • MichaellMichaell Moderator Posts: 240,156

    @MrShift@Edmunds said:
    Without a comprehensive service network, Tesla's plan is toast, IMO. Electric cars need service and maintenance just like any other car---and warranty claims, etc. So either Tesla funds all the dealers out of their own money (and I don't think they have enough to do that), or they'll have to authorize franchises.

    There is a family who we regularly deliver pizza to who has a Tesla. I'm curious as to how / when / where it gets serviced. If I see them again I'll ask.

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  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    Well it's a pretty new car and from the few owners I've spoken to, they don't pile up miles very quickly---they are 2nd or 3rd cars for these people.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    @MrShift@Edmunds said:
    Without a comprehensive service network, Tesla's plan is toast, IMO. Electric cars need service and maintenance just like any other car---and warranty claims, etc. So either Tesla funds all the dealers out of their own money (and I don't think they have enough to do that), or they'll have to authorize franchises.
    @MrShift@Edmunds said:
    Without a comprehensive service network, Tesla's plan is toast, IMO. Electric cars need service and maintenance just like any other car---and warranty claims, etc. So either Tesla funds all the dealers out of their own money (and I don't think they have enough to do that), or they'll have to authorize franchises.

    The issue is whether a car company should have the legal right to choose its distribution model, not whether distributing through a traditional authorized dealer network is a wise business decision.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    Oh I'm all for letting Tesla do as it wishes for distribution, although I have no idea why they think this is a good idea.

  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685

    @hpmctorque said:
    The issue is whether a car company should have the legal right to choose its distribution model

    That's common in many industries, the companies determine who can market their purses/industrial engines/whatever. This is not unique to the carmakers.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    @texases said:
    That's common in many industries, the companies determine who can market their purses/industrial engines/whatever. This is not unique to the carmakers.

    Correct, the companies, not the state governments, determine who markets their wares.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    Unless it's a pyramid marketing scheme. :)

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    @MrShift@Edmunds said:
    Unless it's a pyramid marketing scheme. :)

    I know you said that in jest, but I'm sure we can agree that pyramid schemes are consumer protection issues. Therefore, government has a legitimate role in those.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    yeah, I was just pointing out that the government can interfere, and does, in aberrant marketing. You may recall that's what happened to Preston Tucker and his car. Tucker pushed the limits of a known system by pre-selling the options on the car to owners before they got the car (such as the radio, or other gadgets you could add). The government interpreted this as a form of securities fraud, contending that he had no intention of selling the actual cars, but was using the optional equipment sales as a form of corporate fund raising. They also said the SEC had jurisdiction because factory-dealer agreements fall under the Securities Exchange Act.

    I don't think the Feds would jump on Musk but state governments most certainly will. The Feds might need Space X to help build rocket motors, since the Russian rocket engines, which are currently the best in service, are limited in supply--and what with Crimea and all.....

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    edited April 2014

    Listed for sale by private seller in the Washington Post: "2013 S, 85kw, pearl white w/blk lthr, pan roof, tech pkg, Obeche wood, only 700 mi, showroom cond, $92,000."

    It would be interesting to know how quickly this car sells, and at what price. It's not listed as a 85P (P for performance), so one has to assume that it's neither the most expensive nor the cheapest S, but somewhere in the middle.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    That same 2013 Model S was advertised yesterday for $89,000.

    Will it sell, or is the price still too high?

  • isellhondasisellhondas Member Posts: 20,342

    Man, I can't get over the number of Tesla S's around here!

    Saw THREE within five minutes of each other!

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    @isellhondas said:
    Man, I can't get over the number of Tesla S's around here!
    Saw THREE within five minutes of each other!

    Yeah, but you probably wouldn't find many in Rapid City, SD, Shreveport, La or Hattiesburg, MS, just to name some random cities.

  • isellhondasisellhondas Member Posts: 20,342

    Or in Casper Wyoming or Butte Montana.

    You've got to remember I''m in Microsoft Country along with Amazon Google and others. The geeks that work there like cars like that and many can afford them!

    Just made a run to the Post Office and saw yet another one!

    It seems like they are either white, red or black.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited April 2014

    Tesla stock taking a beating right now. Down to 184, about 55 points down last 30 days.

    Oops, back up to 193 now.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454

    Another example of why I still think this is "the" way to fix cars.

    "A recent software update added a crawl feature that rolls the car forward when the brake pedal is released, just as in a normal automatic transmission-equipped car."

    2013 Tesla Model S: Driving Impressions and 20,000-Mile Update

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    That's nothing new--that's just geek-bonding :)

  • isellhondasisellhondas Member Posts: 20,342

    The Seattle/Eastside area HAS to be the Tesla capital of the U.S.!

    I can't go a day now without seeing at least two or three. Yesterday I followed one.

    It's license plate said NO FUMES

  • bwiabwia Member Posts: 2,913

    I don't remember if this angle was discussed earlier but Tesla is an unmistakable game changer. Not as another car company but as a utility company. Tesla is building recharging stations at a rapid rate and some of these stations are not necessarily on the major routes.

    As we all know the 85 kWh batteries can be recharged at a Tesla charging station free of charge but not so for lesser batteries. And that's how Tesla has changed the game. With other companies joining the electric car bandwagon their limited range cars will need to be recharged. Rather than build their own infrastructure they will simply equip their cars to be "filled up" at a Tesla charging station. Two streams of revenue will be generated from this strategy. A licensing agreement for a conversion kit for non-Tesla cars that want free charging and a tariff for the cost electricity used for those those not wanting to buy the upgraded conversion kit.

    What a beautiful concept. Tesla can change the driving habits of motorists to drive on less congested roads to take advantage of the new charging stations and to revitalize routes once abandoned by motorists such as Route 66.

    And guess what, Tesla will be generating even more money from Uncle Sam and State governments to build this infrastructure since it would help alievate the congestion problem around major cities.

  • MichaellMichaell Moderator Posts: 240,156

    @isellhondas said:
    The Seattle/Eastside area HAS to be the Tesla capital of the U.S.!

    I can't go a day now without seeing at least two or three. Yesterday I followed one.

    It's license plate said NO FUMES

    There is a Volt in my town with plates "1.21 GHZ"

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  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,097

    Once there's a model that isn't a subsidized toy for usually coddled rich guys to cruise around town (tons of these in my area, and I seldom see them on the highway), then the game has changed.

    Governments paying for them means taxpayers paying for them.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    @bwia said:
    I don't remember if this angle was discussed earlier but Tesla is an unmistakable game changer. Not as another car company but as a utility company. Tesla is building recharging stations at a rapid rate and some of these stations are not necessarily on the major routes.

    As we all know the 85 kWh batteries can be recharged at a Tesla charging station free of charge but not so for lesser batteries. And that's how Tesla has changed the game. With other companies joining the electric car bandwagon their limited range cars will need to be recharged. Rather than build their own infrastructure they will simply equip their cars to be "filled up" at a Tesla charging station. Two streams of revenue will be generated from this strategy. A licensing agreement for a conversion kit for non-Tesla cars that want free charging and a tariff for the cost electricity used for those those not wanting to buy the upgraded conversion kit.

    What a beautiful concept. Tesla can change the driving habits of motorists to drive on less congested roads to take advantage of the new charging stations and to revitalize routes once abandoned by motorists such as Route 66.

    And guess what, Tesla will be generating even more money from Uncle Sam and State governments to build this infrastructure since it would help alievate the congestion problem around major cities.

    Your comments are all positive, with no negatives. I think the term "game changer" means different things to different people. Partly due to this, and partly because it's too early to determine the eventual market penetration of EVs in general, and Tesla in particular, it's premature to declare that Tesla is a game changer.

    Let's see whether the battery giga factory is scaled back, or even built. Let's also see whether the mass market Model E succeeds before deciding whether Tesla is an automotive or power utility game changer.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    "Tesla is building recharging stations at a rapid rate"

    WELL....not so rapid but not bad........73 stations as of Feb. 2014

    Two Tesla sedans went coast to coast using only Tesla stations and made it in 76.5 hours (multiple drivers of course).

    That's about 2X as long as a pack of drivers in a gas car could do but it could be a record time for an electric vehicle.

    However, if you took the southern route, you'd still be out there. Not many stations in some states, or none.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    @MrShift@Edmunds said:
    "Tesla is building recharging stations at a rapid rate"

    WELL....not so rapid but not bad........73 stations as of Feb. 2014

    Two Tesla sedans went coast to coast using only Tesla stations and made it in 76.5 hours (multiple drivers of course).

    That's about 2X as long as a pack of drivers in a gas car could do but it could be a record time for an electric vehicle.

    However, if you took the southern route, you'd still be out there. Not many stations in some states, or none.

    I'd describe this as quite impressive, because I don't think it's fair to compare Tesla's recharging station network to one the petroleum and auto complex have developed over the past 110 years.

    While I think that, for the first time in almost a century, EVs are proving themselves to be viable niche market contenders, the jury is still out regarding whether they'll disrupt the existing IC- centric model.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    Also, remember these free charging stations do cost you $2000 bucks up front. That's a lot of gasoline. Think of it as the first class lounge at an airport--not everybody gets to use it.

    Ultimately I think we'll see charging stations operated by credit cards. There's no way this is going to be "free", although I suppose a municipality could work EV charging stations into their tax-supported budget.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited April 2014

    "American consumers and businesses benefit from a dynamic and diverse economy where new technologies and business models can and have disrupted stable and stagnant industries, often by responding to unmet or under-served consumer needs. When that occurs in an industry long subject to extensive regulation, existing businesses—like automobile dealers—often respond by urging legislators or regulators to restrict or even bar the new firms that threaten to shake up their market."

    Who said that?

    The FCC.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    direct factory sales of new cars isn't a new business model, though. It's an old one that everyone has just forgotten about.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454

    The dealer lobby didn't forget. :)

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