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Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM To Become #1?

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  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    That's right. The market says: "if you suck, you die". The automobile business is pretty vicious and big mistakes are often fatal unless you have plenty of cash reserve.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Used VW 2.0s, and Audi and Porsche 3.0 diesels may be excellent values now. However, I'd rather wait and risk paying a little more to buy after we know what the fix will be to bring them into compliance.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited November 2015
    Here's the BREAKDOWN on VW DIESELS NEEDING REPAIR
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    "Monday’s carefully worded statement on cost-cutting does not mention layoffs, but nevertheless raises the specter of job reductions at a company with some 614,000 employees, nearly twice as many as Toyota, which produces roughly the same number of vehicles. “In the present difficult situation we must jointly make decisions that factor in economics just as much as employment,” Matthias Müller, the chief executive of Volkswagen, said in the joint statement with the company’s labor leadership."

    Volkswagen to Begin Talks With Labor on Cost Cutting (NY Times)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well considering the large % of VW sales that are diesel here in the states, coupled with lagging sales already of its gas engine cars, this is not surprising.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Former VW CEO quits as Audi chair as emission-scandal probes continue (Reuters)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well I'm sure he can wipe his tears with stock certificates from his no doubt $50 million pension plan.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    stever said:

    Former VW CEO quits as Audi chair as emission-scandal probes continue (Reuters)

    That was sneaky. Resign in shame and just move to another obscene paying job. It is hard to shed tears for the guy.

    Ex-Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn could get a severance package worth more than $65 million, according to the Wall Street Journal.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Surprised me, wonder what the rest of the story is. He may be spending a million or two on his legal defense - doesn't sound like the Germans can prosecute individuals but I suppose the US could try to indict and extradite.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    The US government has hard evidence on 100s of banksters and have done nothing. Not likely they would be able to win a case against Winterkorn, that basically fell on the fake sword as a show. Dieselgate happened on his watch, so he has to go. I would really be surprised if he knew. It may have been his pushing the engineers to do better that resulted in the fiasco.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I think you're right about the "pressure". VW has such a huge investment in diesel tech that failure was not an option.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Volkswagen Sales Fall in October Amid Emissions Scandal (autonews.com)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Is there a source for monthly diesel sales in general, of all makes?
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Mr_Shiftright said:

    Is there a source for monthly diesel sales in general, of all makes?

    I would like to see that myself. MB & BMW don't mention it on their US sales report. Audi and VW post for each model. BMW did mention in one article they sell 38% diesel WW.
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    Looks like VW US sales fell around 5%. Actually, that's probably pretty good given all the publicity. Could have been much worse.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Yeah, and if they had a bit more product to sell, I bet the sales would normalize fast. Profits, not so much.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    If 23% of their US sales WERE diesels, I would say they really are doing well with only 5% loss of market share. Most were coming from Mexico and Germany, so they can be sold in those countries. I don't think they stopped sales in Germany and the rest of Europe.

    The NOx will have to waft across the Southern border to get you. I would bet there is NO possible way they can tell the difference in our air quality in CA. If they could why weren't they looking for a cause over the last 6 years?
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    I would still buy a 2016 Passat TDI if they are priced same as the Gasser and have not been neutered to reduce emissions.

    EPA standards are just a big joke.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    VW dealers say they don't have enough vehicles to sell (autoblog.com)
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited December 2015
    "The Volkswagen Group could be prepared to sell some off its luxury car brands to pay back a one-year loan of around €20bn, Reuters reports.

    Volkswagen has told the banks supplying the credit line that it will sell its assets if no other way of repaying the loan is possible, according to two sources."

    VW 'could sell luxury brands' to fund Diesel-gate loan (theweek.co.uk)

    "But as Volkswagen drifts into a third month of a seemingly unbound scandal, that tone is changing and dealer frustrations are bubbling to the surface. The absence of a ready-to-go fix, plus continuing inventory shortages and the prospect of more new-car sales pain, is stirring angst and even anger in VW's dealer network.

    "This thing isn't getting better with time," said Alan Brown, co-owner of two Hendrick Volkswagen dealerships in suburban Dallas and chairman of VW's dealer council. "We don't have a fix. We don't have a timeline." The unknown, he added, is "what makes the anxiety of this even worse."

    VW new-car sales nosedive: What's next?     (autoweek.com)
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    VW dealer network should dump VW and start selling Chinese cars. :smile:
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well maybe this will encourage GM to push harder for a new and improved Cruze diesel. I see they are planning a 5-door hatch, and maybe that could also be a diesel.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    carboy21 said:

    VW dealer network should dump VW and start selling Chinese cars. :smile:

    That would be GM that is getting ready to sell Buicks made in China.

    General Motors to Sell China-made Vehicle in US First

    NEW YORK - General Motors (IW 500/5) says it will sell in the United States next year a vehicle made in China, becoming the first major U.S. automaker to do so.

    The move was quickly denounced by the powerful UAW auto union, which branded it "a slap in the face" and called for an immediate rethink.

    GM has sold 127,085 Buick Envision SUVs, made in the eastern province of Shandong, since January in China.

    The automaker plans to import 30,000 to 40,000 of the vehicles each year, amid high demand for 4X4, crossover and pickup trucks in North America, as oil prices dip.

    The controversial announcement comes as labor costs are set to rise for GM in the United States following a wage deal currently being finalized.

    http://www.industryweek.com/companies-executives/general-motors-sell-china-made-vehicle-us-first
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Mr_Shiftright said:

    Well maybe this will encourage GM to push harder for a new and improved Cruze diesel. I see they are planning a 5-door hatch, and maybe that could also be a diesel.

    They need to do something, their Volt is all but dead. Down 23% for the year. I doubt dieselgate will push GM past VW this year. If not for the Silverado and Colorado GM would look worse than VW this year. VW needs to bring their line of Vans and PU trucks to give the dealers something to sell. VW needs to forget pushing the low profit Passat and let the TN people build the Amarok and T6 van.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Why they have not brought the new 2017 Tiguan TDI 2.0 L to the USA is another mystery. Maybe they are setting up to build it in TN. Let's hope so.



    This is what sells, cars like the Passat and Jetta are cheap appliances. The retiring boomers want small vans like the Sharan and CUVs like the Tiguan.



  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    Personally, I think that unless something really dramatic happens in North America, the sales race gets decided in China. The Chinese do pay some attention to what is happening in the US and Europe, so Dieselgate might have some impact on VW/Audi for a bit in China too. Give it a year or so and some other event will probably override their current emissions issue and some other brand may be in the bulls-eye. It was Toyota not all that long ago, then GM, now VW/Audi. Who'll be next?
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited December 2015
    Don't forget the Kia/Hyundai mpg mess.

    And yeah, someone else will get in the crosshairs soon enough.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I think Chinese-made cars will be a tough sell here in the USA---presuming of course, American buyers even know where they came from. Sooner or later the Chinese government will gun down another few thousand protesters and GM will get blamed for it. Let the Chinese market their own cars here, fine, using their own nameplate and dealer network.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    Mr_Shiftright said:

    I think Chinese-made cars will be a tough sell here in the USA---presuming of course, American buyers even know where they came from. Sooner or later the Chinese government will gun down another few thousand protesters and GM will get blamed for it. Let the Chinese market their own cars here, fine, using their own nameplate and dealer network.

    With everything being made in China , it is only logical that soon cars will also be made in China. They will be smart enough to first badge engineer the cars and sell it under USA brand names as Chinese names will not be popular in USA.
    GM/Ford/Chrysler will built their SUVs in China and import it here while the cheaper appliance like sedans will be made in Mexico.
    UAW stranglehold will be slowly broken to make the USA brands more competitive with the Japanese and the Koreans.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    USA brands wouldn't become competitive just by getting rid of unions. You'd have to get rid of all US workers, because no American is going to take a job building cars for $8 and hour. Or if they do, you aren't going to get very good workers.

    GM couldn't have avoided bankruptcy even if the UAW worked for free. They were totally mismanaged.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    Mr_Shiftright said:

    USA brands wouldn't become competitive just by getting rid of unions. You'd have to get rid of all US workers, because no American is going to take a job building cars for $8 and hour. Or if they do, you aren't going to get very good workers.

    GM couldn't have avoided bankruptcy even if the UAW worked for free. They were totally mismanaged.

    Forty percent of the US carmaker's cost of building vehicles in USA goes towards union pensions and healthcare obligations. Google it.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,707
    Direct labor 21% according to this:
    http://marketrealist.com/2015/02/raw-materials-biggest-cost-driver-auto-industry/
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,140
    Organization doesn't matter when the overpaid cereal box MBAs are incompetent. Hello big 2.5. I wonder how their cradle to grave benefits compare on a per capita basis to line workers. Probably like public sector vs private sector.

    Chinese built cars will meet tremendous market resistance - these aren't phones or cheap toys. If the wondrous most favored "partner" becomes belligerent on the domestic or international front, that will hurt too. Even the brave and vital demographic who likes cheap at any cost - so long as the negative externalities are sent offshore - will be hesitant.
    carboy21 said:



    With everything being made in China , it is only logical that soon cars will also be made in China. They will be smart enough to first badge engineer the cars and sell it under USA brand names as Chinese names will not be popular in USA.
    GM/Ford/Chrysler will built their SUVs in China and import it here while the cheaper appliance like sedans will be made in Mexico.
    UAW stranglehold will be slowly broken to make the USA brands more competitive with the Japanese and the Koreans.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    So what? If they built great cars that made everyone money, who cares if they are "overpaid". Aren't execs "overpaid"? Good grief, if you have a well-paid, healthy, well-trained workforce, that should be the last place to "cut costs". Japanese autoworkers don't work for serf wages, nor do the Germans.

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Mr_Shiftright said:

    I think Chinese-made cars will be a tough sell here in the USA---presuming of course, American buyers even know where they came from. Sooner or later the Chinese government will gun down another few thousand protesters and GM will get blamed for it. Let the Chinese market their own cars here, fine, using their own nameplate and dealer network.

    I don't believe more that 10% of American buyers give a rip where their new ride was built. The small CUV segment is getting bigger as Boomers reach retirement age. That is what GM plans to build in large numbers in China for the US market. It could also have to do with taxes. Much easier to hide money off shore.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,140
    I don't know if you are replying to me, but I was saying the execs are "overpaid" - because they are. I don't believe American line workers in general are overpaid, especially not compared to productivity measures and pay in other developed/first world or OECD nations.

    Regarding 10% of Americans from my friend gagrice, I don't buy it. When a Chinese-built product will come at little to no cost savings, as I expect from this Buick, consumers can afford to be choosy, and material from that place has a worse rep than Japanese stuff did in the 50s - not to mention the rep of the actions of the nation itself. Unfortunately, the boomers mentioned seem to be the "cheap at any cost" demographic, no matter that they'd be supporting a system they once marched against. I guess money talks...

    Mr_Shiftright said:

    So what? If they built great cars that made everyone money, who cares if they are "overpaid". Aren't execs "overpaid"? Good grief, if you have a well-paid, healthy, well-trained workforce, that should be the last place to "cut costs". Japanese autoworkers don't work for serf wages, nor do the Germans.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I don't think American buyers have a very good opinion of the Chinese government. It's one thing to support them with a $10 shirt, but quite another with a $30,000 car. I mean, Russian motorcycles pretty much flopped over here (true, they were awful), and one does see an occasional Chinese motor bicycle, but an entire car with a Chinese nameplate? I'm just not seein' it.

    GM's has been dealt a very good hand right now. So let's see how they play it---skillfully, or oops I think I just shot myself.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,707
    Mr_Shiftright said:

    I don't think American buyers have a very good opinion of the Chinese government. It's one thing to support them with a $10 shirt, but quite another with a $30,000 car. I mean, Russian motorcycles pretty much flopped over here (true, they were awful), and one does see an occasional Chinese motor bicycle, but an entire car with a Chinese nameplate? I'm just not seein' it.

    GM's has been dealt a very good hand right now. So let's see how they play it---skillfully, or oops I think I just shot myself.

    The photo of the recent 33 car crash in China does nothing to raise my confidence:


  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Oh, "they" said the same thing about VWs in the 60s (my Dad), Datsuns and Toyotas not long after and ditto Kia and Hyundai.

    Of course, "they" were right about Simcas, Fiats, Peugeots and Renaults.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I would not imagine GM bringing their Chinese nameplate models to the USA. Buick is GM's best seller in China. So why not ship them here. I doubt they are any different than a Buick built here or Canada. This isn't the 1960s when Japan was using crappy materials in their cars. I know my 1964 Land Cruiser had an exact copy of a Chevy 6 cylinder built with substandard parts. Three Valve jobs and three timing gears in 50k miles. I built a VW dunebuggy that would go more places than the LC, and bought a VW Bug for transportation.

    Americans buy millions of $800 iPhones, iPads and iPods without blinking an eye. Apple is the most valuable company in the World on the backs of Chinese labor and the Bucks of Americans. Apple could buy GM and F out of petty cash.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,140
    Whatever the 4 door thing is in front, I don't want to know the story. At least this Buick will be engineered by a US (or Korean?) GM facility, which should be better.

    I'll convert the fintail to a hybrid or electric powertrain and drive it forever without an airbag etc than risk it in the stuff in that pic.
    texases said:



    The photo of the recent 33 car crash in China does nothing to raise my confidence:

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,140
    You have to admit, the complexity and failure ramifications of phones and mini computers are apples and oranges to motor vehicles.

    I suspect China will have a faster learning curve due to stolen/joint venture gifted IP, but I still wouldn't roll those dice. I bet you won't be buying one either ;)
    gagrice said:


    Americans buy millions of $800 iPhones, iPads and iPods without blinking an eye. Apple is the most valuable company in the World on the backs of Chinese labor and the Bucks of Americans. Apple could buy GM and F out of petty cash.

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    FintailI suspect China will have a faster learning curve due to stolen/joint venture gifted IP, but I still wouldn't roll those dice. I bet you won't be buying one either

    There is NO doubt about that. As they are not big on diesel in China. I will NEVER buy another gas vehicle. Nothing offered with gas power that I am attracted too. So far the Germans are the only choices for me.

    You can count on the Buick Envision built in China to be a big seller with the Buy American crowd. They only look at the name. Just a bunch of sheep. My PHD buddy bought a GMC Terrain. I told him he was supporting the Canadians. He did not believe me till he researched it. He likes it even though it has been in the shop for recalls and repairs. GM is 3rd World in my book. Never again.

    http://www.carscoops.com/2015/12/buick-envision-coming-to-united-states.html
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,140
    edited December 2015
    Even if they made a diesel, you wouldn't buy it. We both know it :)

    I don't think Buicks are big sellers to any crowd on this continent anymore, their traditional demographic is vanishing. I stand by a prior prediction - it will sell to fleets, proud expats, and some brand loyalists or bargain hunters who don't know or don't actually care (even if they claim otherwise). It'll be a niche vehicle - good luck getting people out of their CRVRAVscapes or Korean equivalents. I doubt it will be a troublesome vehicle, as QC will be over the top - it has something to prove.
    gagrice said:



    There is NO doubt about that. As they are not big on diesel in China. I will NEVER buy another gas vehicle. Nothing offered with gas power that I am attracted too. So far the Germans are the only choices for me.

    You can count on the Buick Envision built in China to be a big seller with the Buy American crowd. They only look at the name. Just a bunch of sheep.

  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    gagrice said:



    Americans buy millions of $800 iPhones, iPads and iPods without blinking an eye. Apple is the most valuable company in the World on the backs of Chinese labor and the Bucks of Americans. Apple could buy GM and F out of petty cash.

    I am willing to wager Apple cars will soon be on the roads which are made in CHINA..

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well would you buy a Russian car right now, or a Buick made by Russian workers? How about an Iranian car?
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited December 2015
    The last set of Nokians I had supposedly came from the Russian factory, but I don't think the tire guy really knew and I never can read the stamping on tires.

    Bit off-topic but kind of fun:

    Audi plans ice track to test cars on Alaska's North Slope     (ADN.com)
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,707
    Interesting about the Audi ice track - boy, that's a LONG way to go...just hope they don't hit a goose, lots of paperwork to fill out. Friend working at Endicott talked about how much work they went through to protect the geese so they could get shot by the hunters in the L-48...
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Fairbanks would be easier and maybe more extreme. Bit harder for the car spies to hang out on the Slope, but you know they'll be sneaking down the road and launching their drones soon enough.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Think of the logistics to support 80 people up there.
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