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Is Tesla A Game Changer?

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Comments

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    One theory in the car biz is that if you get a deposit from a customer, you take them out of the market. So they quit shopping for a better deal while waiting for their car to arrive at the dealership.

    Looks like Tesla has just taken 325,000 potential car buyers out of the market. :)
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    LOL I will believe that when I see it.

    I suspect a lot of these people are looking to trade Model 3 futures, so to speak.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited April 2016
    Yeah there is probably some of that going on. Wonder if Tesla lets people sell their spot in line? At least Ticketmaster didn't handle the deposits.

    This link says the spots aren't transferable. (teslamotorsclub.com)
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    Per that link, anyway. Man, what a dorky and pedantic forum - I thought some of the German car groups could be funny, these guys are on a higher level, cultists. I am sure "arrangements" can be made even if the reservations aren't directly transferable, as there will be enough exciting enthusiasts frothing at the mouth to abandon their bumper sticker-covered Prius to jump into the new trend.

    I am most interested in the point in time when the dopey tax breaks run out.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    The tax break issue is definitely going to be a problem at some point. Musk is rolling some very big dice.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I think a lot of those early Tesla EV adopters may be in for a big surprise. Very likely they will only be able to charge up at a Tesla specific Super charger. I know the motel we stayed at in AZ had two EATON chargers for their guests. They will not work with Tesla and some other EVs. What a mess just to feel green. The two chargers at our local Kohls are always OUT OF ORDER. The ones at our Motel looked functional. No one used them the 3 nights we were there. Just two wasted parking spaces.

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450

    The tax break issue is definitely going to be a problem at some point. Musk is rolling some very big dice.

    I think in spite of all the hoopla, Tesla rides on the ragged edge of bankruptcy. Kind of reminds me of Tucker. My uncle put money on one of them. No car and in the Chapter 7 BK he ended up with a Tucker branded car radio. Only difference is Tucker was a great vehicle that got squashed by the D3. Tesla has gotten more corporate welfare than 99% new businesses. How many $billion tax dollars will we hand over to Musk for his various schemes.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well Tesla is facing some formidable challenges. For one thing, to satisfy all the pre-orders he received and to meet his ambitious quota for the Model 3, he will have to increase production 10X in under 4 years.

    Also, of all the pre-orders, at least 100,000 of those buyers will get no tax break whatsoever.

    Tucker wasn't really "shut down" by the D3. I mean, he only built 51 cars! Tucker's big problem was his big mouth. He really ticked off some very powerful people in Washington DC and in the D3. Humility and grace would have paid him back handsomely, but he had neither. I mean, Elon would never say things like "Fords are pieces of junk!" or "Congress is conspiring to frame me, so that I can't give the American public the best car in the world".
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685
    I've seen nothing that makes me think the Tucker was great, except the safety features. Way over hyped IMO. 
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I don't think anyone ever made a large rear-engine 4D sedan after Tucker except I guess the Tatra 77, and they only made a few hundred of those quite a bit earlier than Tucker did. The Tucker car was not influential in that respect. The Tesla I think has a far greater effect on the automotive market---Tesla wont revolutionize the auto market, to be sure, but it has "expanded the niche" of EVs.

    Tucker changed nothing except the collector car hobby. Used to be you couldn't give a Tucker away, and now you have to cough up 1/4 million. Seems crazy. Powerful car, though, with a helicopter engine.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I was going by what my uncle told me. He started at the end of the war ordering a new Packard every few months. He would take the train back to the factory and pick it up and drive it to Los Angeles. He would put it up for sale and make money. When the Tucker came along he ordered one. He seemed to think it was ahead of its time. He owned so many luxury cars in the 1940, 50s and 60s I can't name them all. I don't think he ever kept one more than two years. When ever I would go visit him we went out looking at new cars even into the 1970s. There at the end he mostly bought Oldsmobiles. Like all the wannabe Tesla buyers, he took chances. If Tesla is losing a lot of money on every car now, I don't see them making any on a cheaper model.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    I think Tesla is a game changer even if they fail. They've put 200,000 vehicles on the road and have "orders" for 325,000 copies of a brand new vehicle. They can take out loans against those reservations and pay for the R&D.

    "Carmakers typically have to drum up enough interest in a car to pay for its R&D and production costs. Tesla has essentially the opposite issue; it has to figure out how to profitably produce one of the most anticipated cars in history." (Mashable)

    So let's assume Tesla fails, either because they can't make them cheaply enough, or because they don't have a dealer network or the warranty costs kill them.

    Meanwhile the demand for EVs with decent range is going to get met by the Bolt and every other manufacturer who wants to compete in this arena. And that's most of them.

    Elon may get the last laugh by focusing solely on battery production.



  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I don't see that working. For one thing, the Tesla Model S has gone into Consumer Reports "Worst of the worst used cars" list.

    Secondly, about 40% of the people who put down money to "reserve" a Model X have not acted upon it. No bank is going to loan on that level of "pre-order reluctance" seems to me.

    In my opinion, the bare facts are that battery technology still basically sucks. A totally new kind of battery will have to be invented for any EV to become a "game changer".

    EVs are still a toy. To use your Tesla, or your Bolt, you have to treat it like a pet going on vacation. You have to plan ahead to make sure it will have everything it needs to travel.

    People (most) may love their Teslas, but there is no spontaneous use about it.

    If I tried to sell you a cell phone that you could only charge at home or at my charging stations, you'd throw it back at me.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited April 2016
    Maybe if you were within six feet. Be hard to get much more (throwing) range with the early suckers.



    "Motorola DynaTAC 8000X. This was the first handheld mobile phone made available to the market in the United States." (link)
  • slorenzenslorenzen Member Posts: 694
    stever said:

    Maybe if you were within six feet. Be hard to get much more (throwing) range with the early suckers.



    "Motorola DynaTAC 8000X. This was the first handheld mobile phone made available to the market in the United States." (link)

    Yeah, but if you HIT him with that thing, Shifty's toast...

    :D
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited April 2016
    I missed that era--I just remember laughing when I saw people using them. You'll always have people who will buy the first of anything new, no matter how inconvenient, expensive or impractical it is.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited April 2016
    I remember getting my first phone call from someone with a real car cell phone in the late 80s/early 90s. Before that I had gotten a call in the 70s from some ham radio guy with a repeater setup in his car.

    It takes a while for this stuff to hit critical mass, but EVs sure have that same feel about it.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    I wonder how supercharger capacity is slated to deal with a volume of new cars, if the 3 hits the production hinted at by deposits. The only thing worse than having to stop 200 miles into a trip for a 30 minute recharge, then do it again in another ~3 hours, is to wait for 2 other people in front of you to get their juice before you can fill up.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I don't believe EVs are going to hit any kind of critical mass until a new type of battery appears.

    Right now, I look at the EV as the steam car of 1910---highly capable in its own way, but not able to compete with a gas engine, a self-starter, and an affordable MSRP.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450

    I don't believe EVs are going to hit any kind of critical mass until a new type of battery appears.

    Right now, I look at the EV as the steam car of 1910---highly capable in its own way, but not able to compete with a gas engine, a self-starter, and an affordable MSRP.

    Agreed! The Tesla sells because it is pretty and a lot of rich people want to commute to work looking green. Musk has been promising to deliver an EV for the masses since 2012. Now late 2017 if you give him a $1000 loan. If those 325k people fork over a grand, he will have $325 million to play with.

    I'm with you, until a different battery is invented the EV is a limited use vehicle. As I mentioned before a neighbor with a LEAF has already run into issues with charging. His wife commutes 35 miles each way to the Navy terminal. More than once she has come out to find her car unplugged from the charging station. Fortunately it stops charging until it is plugged in again and a CC swiped. It caused her to not make it all the way home once. I don't think AAA has fast chargers on their trucks.

    Lastly I posted an article about people in Norway where the Tesla is extremely popular. They are having 4-5 month waits for repairs. I think the main Power unit is less than reliable.


  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Brilliant though he may be, if Musk thinks he's going to sell 500,000 cars a year without an extensive franchised dealer and service network, well...good luck with that.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    Interesting Tesla tax data - I wonder who did what to who to create this unnecessary and undeserved idiocy in the first place
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    I just got back from a trip to Europe, which included four days each in Amsterdam and Berlin. I saw several Teslas in each city, including two Tesla S taxis in Amsterdam. Those taxis really surprised me. Their owners must have concluded that the cost of ownership would be cheaper than for an IC or hybrid powered vehicle. Or, maybe they had a fleet and were just testing the Tesla. Don't know what tax break they got in Holland or Germany.

    I also saw numerous Priuses in Milan, Amsterdam and Berlin, more than in previous visits. In fact, my taxi from the Berlin train station to my hotel was a Prius.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    For whatever reasons, a lot of people hope Tesla will fail. I leaned in that direction for a period because I love IC powered cars. Lately I've become neutral on EVs because the rational side of me wants to see how the automotive power plant competition plays out. That said, I'm not a fan of the government financial aid Tesla was given and the tax incentives for EVs and hybrids. Others will disagree, and I know there are differences, but I put these incentives in a similar category with the Cash For Clunkers program

    I think it's too early to predict whether Tesla in particular, or EVs in general, will be major disrupters. With the billions going into battery research in many countries, and research to utilize current (no pun intended) batteries more effectively, I suspect there's a good chance that EVs will ultimately gain significant market share.

    In the meantime, like it or not, there's no question that Tesla has spurred every major vehicle manufacturer to speed up research, development and introduction of EVs. Sure, rapidly tightening mileage and pollution standards around the globe are the main reason for this, but wouldn't you agree that Tesla's success has moved the process forward?
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    edited April 2016
    I'd love to see Tesla succeed - without tax incentives given to vehicle purchasers who need and/or deserve it least. It's a good representation of 30+ years of trickle down nonsense.

    Supposed "green" legislators and policymakers across the developed world and elsewhere will be lured into this as well - social engineering is their game, and they will do what it takes to put more EV passenger cars on the road. Just don't think about that already stretched-thin power grid, or where the batteries come from, or about commercial vehicles. Or for some Euro places, where the money will come from, as they recently signed up for years upon years of expenses which few can fathom.

    Tesla gets a huge break in Netherlands, maybe enough to make a taxi a nice publicity stunt. I think it is the top selling EV there, and EVs are huge there in general. I don't know if the break is as much as Norway, where with the break, a Tesla can cost less than a Passat. I suppose that kind of stuff is easy when you have a big sovereign fund and your defense is subsidized. I think they also get special lane access and parking, as has been seen in parts of NA. I remember seeing Prius V taxis in Germany and Switzerland, although still not nearly as many as E-class and MB/VW vans and tall wagons.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited April 2016
    We've been subsidizing ICE cars and trucks for decades, and that's not even including the "green" (brown?) subsidy of having those engines spew all over. At least the EVs have point source pollution that you can monitor more closely (can you say VW?).

    "Whether it was the Erie Canal, the first transcontinental railroad, or the interstate highway system, state and federal resources have repeatedly been deployed to build new types of transportation infrastructure that the private sector couldn't, or wouldn't, fund. Over time, these investments paid huge economic, social, and national-security dividends to the country." (Slate)
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    edited April 2016
    But with Tesla breaks, we are subsidizing the socio-economic group who needs it least. Especially in this new Belle Epoque. I sincerely doubt subsidizing plaything EVs for the upper echelons will create the same dividends as developing massive transportation infrastructure projects - which are not the same thing as EVs at all. Of course, that 8 year old opinion piece is about mass transit, which is also not the same thing as fancy toy EVs. Good point in that one anyway, the home ownership subsidy is an undeserved waste and a way to reward an irresponsible industry. It exists virtually nowhere else.

    Point source pollution, but don't think about the manufacturing or where the juice comes from Just send it to someone elses backyard, the green movement has been doing it for eons. Bus or dinky EV for you and your shoebox low-E efficiency unit, nice private car and comfortable detached house (bought for nothing) for me, that's the greenie Seattle way anyway.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited April 2016
    That was just the first easy hit - there must be dozens of them out there. The point is that new tech trickles down in myriad ways, often with unexpected benefits (and yeah, some not so happy unexpected consequences). I'm hoping for a big battery breakthrough that'll enable me to get off El Paso Electric entirely without having to have grid or diesel backup for a spell of gray weather.

    I'm also hoping for big time EV adoption (with decent range) so I can quit going to the dealer for most maintenance.

    Finally, I'm hoping Tesla comes to their senses and switches out the rear gulls for sliders. :)
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    edited April 2016
    I'll believe in those unexpected positive externalities when I see them. And still, they do not justify giving breaks to 100K+ vehicles. I'll also believe the range when I see it, even 300 miles is still pretty much a dream. And you'll still have to go to a shop for maintenance - unlike what many Musk Kool-Aid drinkers think, these things still need fettling now and then.

    The X is essentially a fancy AWD minivan, but sliders wouldn't appeal to the target demographic. It's all about image and showing off. Maybe it will come after the 3 is up and running, maybe 2026? :)
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Special lane access and parking could be an important incentive for taxis, assuming all taxis don't already enjoy these privileges.

    Yes, there are certainly more German vehicles than Priuses for taxi and livery service in Berlin. The Prius I rode in was a standard hatchback model.

    By the way, the foreign, non-English speaking driver drove like a crazy man, flooring it and slamming on the brakes repeatedly. Most taxi and livery drivers in Europe drive in a very professional manner. Well, not so much in Italy, south of Rome sometimes. I had a couple of rides in Naples a while back where the driver blew through red traffic lights and drove the wrong way down one-way streets, even cursing other drivers as he did that (kind of humorous, in a way), but these drivers didn't abuse their cars. This driver in Berlin drove like a New York taxi driver on steroids.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    I should add that the driver who took me from my hotel to the Berlin airport drove in an exemplary manner, and spoke English well. I'm sure he was more representative of German taxi drivers than the first guy. The car was an E-Class 220 diesel, a far better ride than the Prius.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    From today's Automotive News...

    "Ford pays $199,950, $55,000 over sticker price, to buy a Tesla Model X SUV." This was presumably so it wouldn't have to get in line for delivery.

    This is another sign that the world's major auto makers are anxious to learn about Tesla's designs, its mystique, and why investors are willing to assign such a lofty valuation to this electric car maker. Some say Tesla stock is running on fumes (figure if speech, since EVs don't emit fumes). However, the valuation of Tesla shares has been very high for over two years, compared to that of its much larger competitors, which is a long time for a company with no or meager earnings to command a multiple several times higher than its industry peers. Amazon is another example that comes to mind, but these are very rare.

    I'm sure Ford and others would like to learn the formula to Tesla's secret sauce, given that their valuations are considerably below the average for the S&P 500. High valuations make financing easier and more affordable
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    I had a friend who worked at HP and every time a new printer came out, they'd buy one and play with it, take it apart and try to reverse engineer it as much as they could.

    They didn't have to pay top dollar like Ford to get one though. ;)
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685
    edited April 2016
    I remember reading Haley's "Wheels" many years ago, no idea how accurate it was about the auto industry, but there was a section describing how one automaker had a section of their R&D containing stripped-down competitor cars. Sounds like little has changed. Only thing unusual here is Ford was found out.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I'll also believe the range when I see it, even 300 miles is still pretty much a dream.

    The Tesla website only claims 170 miles after a 40 minute Super Charge. 40 minute pee break every 2.5 hours of driving seems excessive. We try to average about 650 miles a day when traveling. Or about 9 hours is our limit. Leaving at 7AM and arriving at our destination around 4PM. IF and that is a huge IF, we had to find 4 SuperChargers that would add at least 2.5 hours to our daily drive. When they get an EV SUV with a 600 mile range I might consider them. Until then, make mine diesel.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Ideal for us is 300 miles but it seems like we've exceeded all too often in recent years.

    Six hours at 50 mph average sticking to blue highways used to our usual goal. That leaves ample time for breaking camp, a nice meal or two and an activity, like a set of tennis or a hike, then plenty of daylight left to sit around camp and read or putz around a lake in a canoe. Don't know why we've sped up in our old age.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    It always seems we want to get passed the first 600 miles after leaving San Diego, no matter which direction. Especially our trips to Indiana. After we get off I8 & I10 we head for the US highways. Our favorite is US 60 all the way from Globe, AZ to Henderson, KY. We know all the best BBQ joints on that route. Never crowded, no big cities. What road travel should be. And it is only about 50 miles longer than the Interstates. Maybe 3 more hours on the road. That 2000 miles takes us about 3.5 days without 12 stops for Supercharging. And only 3 fuel stops when we are settled into our Hampton Inn Suite for the evening. I don't see a Tesla or any other EV in our future. Strictly a city commuter vehicle.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Not only are people NOT buying a second EV, new buyers are getting to be slim pickins'. Nissan Leaf sales are in the toilet, down 28% YTD. Selling less than 1000 per month. The folks that might buy a Nissan Leaf are not likely to have a Federal tax burden of $7500. So that tax credit means little to them. The Tesla buyers I would hope pay far more than that per year. I think the people lining up for the new Tesla are mostly speculating. Sell your number at a profit like during the Condo craze in Hawaii back in the early 1980s.

    Despite the enthusiasm the Tesla Model 3 seems to be generating, sales of electric and hybrid vehicles are sputtering in the U.S. and consumers are demonstrating weak loyalty to these powertrain solutions, based on a review of IHS Automotive loyalty data.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/stephaniebrinley/2016/04/21/are-ev-and-hybrid-buyers-loyal-to-the-powertrain-ihs-data-suggests-not/#6285f46b655c
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited April 2016
    @gagrice, there are certain destinations where we just want to get there. Best not name names, lol.

    My understanding is that if you sign up for a Tesla, you can't later sell your place in line.

    I can't get to Forbes anymore, but I assume that story is based on today's PR by Edmunds? Still waiting for the home office to post the article online so I can link to it and not some nefarious cookie loving site. :)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I don't see how setting out the facts about Tesla represents any "hope" that they would fail. We do know they aren't very good at making money; we do know that by any current standard of financial acumen that their stock is seriously overvalued; and we do know that their products have reliability issues. We also know that all that deposit money is but a drop in the bucket for what Tesla will need to do a ten-fold expansion to meet their projected sales goals for the Model 3.

    So a certain amount of skepticism seems healthy at this point, and not mean-spirited.

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    I'm still most curious as to how proprietary supercharger tech will expand when the 3 finally hits the street - and if the taxpayer will be left holding the bill for expansion. The one thing worse than a 40 minute wait for a charge would be waiting for 3 people in line in front of you to juice up first.

    Hey, at least this place allows Tesla skepticism and criticism - some supposed automotive sites have been known to censor it.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    The taxi drivers around Seattle, a huge number of them "newbies" as I like to say, can also be crazy, but usually in a slow inept way to match the local driving skill. I would rather have the fast ones. I remember riding with a Turkish cab driver in Stuttgart years ago, he was fast, but not scary. 4cyl diesel E, I think it was.

    Maybe the Prius guy just hated the car, and drove it hard out of frustration. That's how I explain aggressive Prius drivers :) Aggressive driving in something with the 0-60 capability of a Tesla is a scary thought, as they seem to appeal to those not exactly into cars or driving.

    Special lane access and parking could be an important incentive for taxis, assuming all taxis don't already enjoy these privileges. , but these drivers didn't abuse their cars. This driver in Berlin drove like a New York taxi driver on steroids.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    fintail said:

    I'm still most curious as to how proprietary supercharger tech will expand when the 3 finally hits the street - and if the taxpayer will be left holding the bill for expansion. The one thing worse than a 40 minute wait for a charge would be waiting for 3 people in line in front of you to juice up first.

    Hey, at least this place allows Tesla skepticism and criticism - some supposed automotive sites have been known to censor it.

    It's not the cite that is censoring it---but rather Tesla fanboys flooding various forums and conducting online retribution for violating the one-party orthodoxy.

    Fortunately, we here like all points of view. B)

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    edited April 2016
    A certain Gawker based site has censored some for questioning the Tesla groupthink. Amusingly, the place is also kind of going downhill lately.

    There really is a Tesla cult out there.


    It's not the cite that is censoring it---but rather Tesla fanboys flooding various forums and conducting online retribution for violating the one-party orthodoxy.

    Fortunately, we here like all points of view. B)

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Yeah, a Tesla website can be like living in North Korea or being trapped in a 24/7 Christmas store.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I was just debating Tesla with our old Buddy Rocky. He is one of those Tesla Cult members. Nothing Musk does is bad. I left him pondering the whole recycled battery thing. It seems there is no sustainable way to recycle Li-ion batteries. Most of the batteries are incinerated or shipped to 3rd world countries. It will require the tax payers to make it possible.

    Lithium-ion batteries are expensive to manufacture and this is in part due to the high material cost and complex preparation processes. The most expensive metal of most Li-ion is cobalt, a hard lustrous gray material that is also used to manufacture magnets and high-strength alloys.

    Knowing that billions of Li-ion batteries are discarded every year and given the high cost of lithium cobalt oxide, salvaging precious metals should make economic sense and one wonders why so few companies recycle these batteries.

    The reason becomes clear when examining the complexity and low yield of recycling. The retrieved raw material barely pays for labor, which includes collection, transport, sorting into batteries chemistries, shredding, separation of metallic and non-metallic materials, neutralizing hazardous substances, smelting, and purification of the recovered metals.


    http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/battery_recycling_as_a_business

    This is probably why Musk is lining up suppliers of Lithium for his new GigaFactory. So much for his acting Green.

    Currently the majority of the world’s supply of lithium comes from Bolivia, Argentina and Chile. While recycling batteries to extract lithium makes perfect sense, financially it is not worth it since the cost to recycle the lithium exceeds the cost of mining new lithium.

    http://cleantechnica.com/2015/07/23/electric-vehicle-battery-can-recycled/
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Musk's long range plan is to do some asteroid mining. He's just delivering cargo to the ISS for practice.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    "sustainable" and capitalism have not traditionally been the most comfortable of bedfellows---although I do think the two are compatible in certain cases (agriculture, for instance)....but "mining" is mining, after all.

    Seems to me the major marketing point for EVs is economical cost to run, and "future tech"--the Apple sort of thing.

    Let's be honest about it, at any rate. EVs aren't cheap to buy, and they aren't "green". It might be arguable that polluting a desert or remote rural area is better than polluting a city, but that's not how the desert or countryside feels about it.

    You don't get something for nothing in the world ruled by physical laws. Only in ad agencies.

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    You don't get something for nothing in the world ruled by physical laws. Only in ad agencies.
    Exactly what I have tried to get through to Rocky. He truly believes we can build a large enough solar farm in the desert to supply the entire USA. I ask him how we get the energy to NY. His response is Bury underground cables across the country. How do you argue with that sort of simplistic view? The Rocky mountains to him is not an obstacle. National Parks are there to be used including plowing through the middle with huge cables. It frustrates me that so many people think like that.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited April 2016
    Well you know...it's very thrilling to be a "futurist"--you can wax eloquently about how we will all march bright-eyed and rosy-cheeked into a future of sunlight meadows. Who would rain on a parade like that?

    Problem is...most futurists have been proven wrong, and the "gurus" who are worshipped for being right aren't really futurists at all--they were just clever enough to see existing things in a new way.

    Musk isn't "inventing" anything--he is working with what already was. We already had batteries, we already had electric motors, we already had cars and we already had computers.

    We also have the power plants fueled by coal or natural gas (and to a minor degree, by thermal and wind and solar) that literally propel all the EVs you see on the road today.

    If you "plug it in", it's still a fossil-fuel burner, unless you are charging off solar panels directly----which would take either a lot of time or a lot of panels to power an EV efficiently.

    "New" technology for the EVs of the future hasn't been invented yet.

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