U.S. Auto Market News and Reviews

berri · November 2018

The market, and GM's share price, rose yesterday.

They did in the roaring twenties and early 30's before the crash also.

fushigi · November 2018

Wall Street often rewards companies for adding to the unemployment line.

uplanderguy · November 2018

I think the current Cruze is so much nicer than the previous one...and I own both.

Well, onwards and upwards. I'll still resist automotive trends, LOL.

fintail · November 2018

And the markets (GM, too) have been off today. The recent yo-yo is best left ignored, no point taking the time trying to understand or time it. I wonder if this is 1928 redux.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2018

Nobody "wins" a tariff war. The best possible outcome is that your opponent loses more blood than you do.

henryn · November 2018

https://cnn.com/2018/11/27/business/auto-industry-future/index.html

Interesting read.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2018

Yeah well REAL self-driving cars are a long, long way off. That article sounds like another "Flying Car" feature. Today's tech is nowhere near ready for full autonomy in all conditions.

What you will probably see is semi-autonomous ride-sharing with a driver in place, although it might not be you. Uber with a human acting as bored robot.

I think the real threat to the auto industry isn't technological at all, but rather urbanization of the entire country, where owning a car becomes truly burdensome.

fintail · November 2018

Might be a good make work project - "autonomous" car minders.

dieselone · November 2018

No doubt automated/self-driving cars are a long way off, like decades. But lots of money is being spent on it and it will happen in various stages.

That said, all you have to do is look around and it's obvious what going on with the auto market. Sedans just aren't in demand. My SIL had a Cruze. She really liked it, but recently replaced it with an Equinox. Same with my parents. Now retired, my dad bought a new vehicle. He kept his accord for grocery getting etc, but my mom wanted an SUV, so he bought an Acura MDX.

Looking in my cul-de-sac, 5 houses with 16 vehicles, 6 are sedans for which we have 3 of them

.

Mr_Shiftright said:

I think the real threat to the auto industry isn't technological at all, but rather urbanization of the entire country, where owning a car becomes truly burdensome.

No question, living in a large city, where you can barely afford an apartment, a car is not on their radar. This mean changes are coming, but still opportunities for the automakers too. But variety in the sedan/coupe market will continue to dwindle unless young people start buying them again.

GM sells far more vehicles outside of the US, and sales are growing faster in international markets where unit prices are lower, no way GM is going to be able to build small cars in the US and ship them to other countries against lower cost competition.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2018

The sedan market drying up and a new Hyundai Kona EV with a 250 mile range and quality interior, for around $25K doesn't bode well for Tesla, that's for sure.

The automakers aren't paying close attention. Most of the general public does NOT LIKE autonomous driving.

berri · November 2018

If you have to own a car in a big city, probably something like a Corolla or CRV (talking categories, not specific makes here) works best given cramped parking, fuel and insurance costs, etc.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2018

Cities don't "want" you to own a car. They punish you for doing that.
Did you ever wonder if it's time for another "Model T"? Small, affordable, simple, but not cheaply built.

It could actually be a "dumb car", in the sense that you'd take your high-powered phone of the near future---the Apple 20, (or should I say XX) and drop it into a slot in the dashboard. It then takes over to provide NAV, hands-free calling, maybe rear-view camera and music.

That's it. Want to go shopping? Well not in your car. Want lane assist, BLIS, radar-cruise control, HUD, 14-way seats, DVD. Sorry, no, you can't have that. Use your mirrors, use your brake, use the handle under the seat, bring your iPad for the kids.

$15k out the door. Not fast, but fast enough. About 140" to 160" tops. 4 colors available. Cloth seats. Hatchback. 4 doors or 3 door. Steel wheels. Stylish enough, not dorky. No turbo. 4 cylinder. Auto or stick.

Perks. Free Fastrak for a year. Preferred parking areas.

Michaell · November 2018

Mr_Shiftright said:
Cities don't "want" you to own a car. They punish you for doing that.
Did you ever wonder if it's time for another "Model T"? Small, affordable, simple, but not cheaply built.

It could actually be a "dumb car", in the sense that you'd take your high-powered phone of the near future---the Apple 20, (or should I say XX) and drop it into a slot in the dashboard. It then takes over to provide NAV, hands-free calling, maybe rear-view camera and music.

That's it. Want to go shopping? Well not in your car. Want lane assist, BLIS, radar-cruise control, HUD, 14-way seats, DVD. Sorry, no, you can't have that. Use your mirrors, use your brake, use the handle under the seat, bring your iPad for the kids.

$15k out the door. Not fast, but fast enough. About 140" to 160" tops. 4 colors available. Cloth seats. Hatchback. 4 doors or 3 door. Steel wheels. Stylish enough, not dorky. No turbo. 4 cylinder. Auto or stick.

Perks. Free Fastrak for a year. Preferred parking areas.

Gee, you mean something like this?

kyfdx · November 2018

Sounds like a Chevy Spark

fintail · November 2018

Sounds good, but the "perks" are of questionable merit.

It's funny that many who want to punish private car use don't seem to be willing to give up their own private cars, at least around here.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2018

But there's no incentive to buy a Spark or a Mitsubishi, because the bigger cars are not being punished enough.

Automakers don't want to sell these little cars. They make them as awful as possible.

kyfdx · November 2018

Mr_Shiftright said:
But there's no incentive to buy a Spark or a Mitsubishi, because the bigger cars are not being punished enough.

Automakers don't want to sell these little cars. They make them as awful as possible.

That's because they lose money on every one of them.

Domestic makes always thought they had to have a car for every seat, just so they could hang on to people from beginning to end. But, other makes proved that was a money loser, and now they are wising up (which is why all of those sedans are going away).

berri · November 2018

Can't prove it, but it seems to me that brand loyalty is nowhere near as important in purchases as a decade or two ago, so losing money to gain a customer may not be a cost effective pricing model anymore perhaps.

Michaell · November 2018

berri said:
Can't prove it, but it seems to me that brand loyalty is nowhere near as important in purchases as a decade or two ago, so losing money to gain a customer may not be a cost effective pricing model anymore perhaps.

Isn't that what Mary Barra said when she took over as CEO of GM? That they weren't going to chase market share, but profitability?

I think what we saw this week was that strategic imperative being played out. Few people want sedans, and if you're making more money selling SUVs (of all shapes and sizes) and trucks, focus on that.

Of course, if oil prices skyrocket and gas goes back to $4-5/gal, it'll be interesting to see who captures the market.

circlew · November 2018

Mary Barra also said this:

Mary Barra has one directive for her employees: “The simple thing I say to them is, No more crappy cars, and that resonates.”

http://fortune.com/2013/10/16/gms-mary-barra-to-staff-no-more-crappy-cars/

At least she is driving change without the "blindfolds" of the past!

berri · November 2018

I think Ford layoffs are on their way. Slowing economy projections and tariffs on steel and aluminum, etc.; might even see some transplants layoffs too. Noticed BMW is building some of the same models in China now as in South Carolina. I believe China has been an export market for some SC production. White House keeps berating German auto companies. Starting to maybe get a bit ugly out there. If leadership keeps putting down GM and followers comply, might be further headcount reductions as a result. This stuff is not a zero sum game like a baseball game.

fintail · November 2018

Not sure if punishing drivers of marginally longer cars will solve anything. Reminds me of the local ideals of ripping out car lanes for seldom-used bike lanes, and cities taking bribes to allow Limebikes to park all over the place after being used for fun and seldom if ever replacing cars.

Here are the problems in cities:

Lack of affordable housing close to employment centers

Lack of comprehensive public transit

Lack of general infrastructure, which makes housing, transit, and roads that much harder

(I won't even get into the wage/socio-economic issues underlying in much of this)

Shorter cars won't make a difference. Tax the living daylights out of offshore capital parkers/money launderers who use local real estate as a casino and residency ticket, use the proceeds to fund transit and infrastructure. Encourage upzoning to allow people to not need to live 20 miles from employment centers to find affordable rent (or if they are lucky, a mortgage). Put first world taxes on those who have benefited most from the past 35 years of moronic tax policy, use the proceeds to fund transit and infrastructure.

Mr_Shiftright said:
But there's no incentive to buy a Spark or a Mitsubishi, because the bigger cars are not being punished enough.

Automakers don't want to sell these little cars. They make them as awful as possible.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2018

I agree, just downsizing isn't going to solve much, but let's face it, if you can fit 100 cars into a space that used to hold 75, that's a kind of progress. Cars don't have to be this big or this complex. It's getting crazy.

The auto industry has always managed to survive by being innovative, and responsive to change (well, usually). Chrysler invents the mini-van! Toyota the Prius and the Lexus!

The automakers need to keep re-creating the market, because at least in the U.S., the market is fully saturated.

Some will rise, and some will fall.

I wonder if in ten years we'll have 3-ton electric SUVs, and defeat the entire purpose of the concept?

fintail · November 2018

Lexus? I see the original as a reverse-engineered W126 lacking the Teutonic ideal of complexity for the sake of complexity. It expanded into an existing market. Significant, but it didn't redefine cars.

I don't think long cars are more than .00001% of the problem in cities. I suspect ineptly managed traffic controls and dumb drivers are much more of an issue.

The Model X seems to be 2/3 of the way to that SUV.

berri · November 2018

I think what Lexus did was open the luxury market to include Japanese makes. while the German cars here moved the lux market from big, floating boats to more driver's cars. Cadillac responded going more Teutonic, but imitation is not always successful. I'm interested in Lincoln's reincarnation where they are actually taking cues back to when American cars were lux leaders. I may be way off here, but I think that approach may have a better shot in the US than trying to be MB or BMW.

fintail · November 2018

I don't know if I would call it innovation. They entered an existing market segment, and in some ways, that's really only the US market. You can still go to any major city in the Europe today, and apart from a few hybrids and RX, not see much in the way of Lexus - the big sedans just aren't embraced.

Lincoln Aviator looks like it might be a winner, they are trying. Shame the CT6, by far the most appealing Caddy IMO, is on the chopping block.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2018

fintail said:
Lexus? I see the original as a reverse-engineered W126 lacking the Teutonic ideal of complexity for the sake of complexity. It expanded into an existing market. Significant, but it didn't redefine cars.

I don't think long cars are more than .00001% of the problem in cities. I suspect ineptly managed traffic controls and dumb drivers are much more of an issue.

The Model X seems to be 2/3 of the way to that SUV.

It certainly redefines the luxury car market in the U.S., bigtime-- opening up an entirely new one for Lexus. It was both a bargain and dead-on reliable, something Benz couldn't claim in either case. I would expect that when the Lexus LS400 appeared, Mercedes execs in Germany spit coffee on their desks.

The Model X is something of a mess. A better effort in that segment had better show up fast.

fintail · November 2018

Lexus introduced a reliable car that was at most angles a spitting image of its main competitor, and entered an existing market segment. Nearly 30 years later, it still pales in comparison sales-wise. I don't see the revolution. Evolution, maybe. It made some in a specific segment take notice, but it was competition, not genesis.

I'm waiting for a Tesla Escalade or G-Wagen-type barge to go after the local Stepfords and dirty money types who want something more brash.

Mr_Shiftright said:

It certainly redefines the luxury car market in the U.S., bigtime-- opening up an entirely new one for Lexus. It was both a bargain and dead-on reliable, something Benz couldn't claim in either case. I would expect that when the Lexus LS400 appeared, Mercedes execs in Germany spit coffee on their desks.

The Model X is something of a mess. A better effort in that segment had better show up fast.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2018

Well if you launch an entirely new brand, and steal a huge market share from the segment leader, and establish a decades-long reputation for quality--that's a revolution.

Poor Toyota never gets credit for some significant achievements---the Lexus line and the Prius being two of them.

fintail · November 2018

New brand selling rebadged models from an existing brand that already had respect and a devoted fanbase, and selling those models into existing market segments. Top spec models that are still easily outsold by the much more expensive to buy and maintain top spec models of the old competition. Invisible in some markets.

Evolution, not revolution. If it was revolution, Lexus would have walked away the collective Germans lunch instead of taking a couple pieces of their pizza.

The Prius on the other hand, for better or worse, is much more significant.

berri · November 2018

The Germans have a good game going on in the US. Americans seem to consider them the tech leaders and cool regardless of reliability. I've always been amazed how Audi moved so quickly from a mid range model to being considered lux. You have to give them credit. As for Lexus, I've got to think butt ugly styling is not the way to go. Infinity and Acura seem to be having the same issue of attaining the status of German vehicles. If Cadillac had a chance to really revive, I think lux pricing instead of starting a bit lower like the Japanese did and proving their worth may have handicapped their re-emergence in the US lux market.

Was Lexus revolution or evolution? I think maybe a bit of both. Japan Inc. bumped Detroit out of lux leadership as it expanded Toyota Corp. market reach. Camry and Accord kind of did the same thing in the midsized car segment years back. But Germany consistently puts out product and status image in lux, while having problems getting VW to where it once reigned in popular price segment. Who knows where it will all be a decade from now.

suydam · November 2018

Just curious — how many Lexi are sold compared to BMW and Mercedes? I’ll bet it’s pretty similar. Which is quite an achievement considering the German makes had decades more time to establish their reputation.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2018

They did walk away with Mercedes lunch. Gave them a heart attack in fact.

https://www.carthrottle.com/post/how-the-lexus-ls400-conquered-the-world-and-why-were-glad-it-did/

It was a highly refined car with features far more modern and innovative than Benz or Jaguar. And there was nothing Toyota about it. It was a completely new automobile.

It re-defined how luxury cars were built--flat out revolutionary car IMO.

I understand how you might find the car somewhat soul-less. Many people do. But that's not really the point.

Toyota saw an opportunity, and just aced it. It's been a while since an American company did that.

fintail · November 2018

Yet the S (what the LS was designed to challenge) still handily outsells the LS in virtually every market it is offered, it has since inception, and there are no signs of this changing. The S has a significantly higher MSRP and transaction price, is more expensive to run, and still outsells the LS even in years when it is aging. This isn't an opinion like on the carthrottle link, it is reality. Lexus definitely gave execs in the competition reason to pause, and they took heed - all players are better now. They evolved.

OG Lexus LS = Toyota Celsior badged for US consumption. OG Lexus SC = Toyota Soarer badged for US consumption. And so on. Which innovative or revolutionary features debuted on that car? Refined, definitely, but it was more about proven tech than paving a new path. It paved that path for the brand, not for cars in general. Pairing MB and Jaguar is also kind of funny, as they were even more apples to oranges then than now. In terms of the market, the RX is more significant IMO. The soft and small upmarket SUV aimed at coddled suburban housewives was a coup, answering pent up demand that everyone ignored for ages. Lexus still owns that segment (although others fight hard).

I'll also say the Germans invading the US luxury market around 15 years prior was more of a revolution, as MB in particular decimated the home team, relegating them to decades of catch up.

suydam · November 2018

Coddled suburban housewives? I see plenty of guys driving those things.

fintail · November 2018

Wife took the car for whatever reason, and hubby had to go somewhere

Or maybe he just wants a very comfy dull experience, with more ground clearance than an ES.

Many vehicles are neutral, some are aimed at specific demographics, even if nobody will own up to it.

imidazol97 · November 2018

fintail said:
OG Lexus LS = Toyota Celsior badged for US consumption. OG Lexus SC = Toyota Soarer badged for US consumption. And so on. Which innovative or revolutionary features debuted on that car?

Interesting about the etymology of the higher end Lexi.

When did the ES series of Camry faux Lexus come into play. I believe a lot of people smear their judgement of sales of Lexus based on seeing a lot of the ES models on the roads. IOW, how did the true premium vehicles of Lexus compare to the Mercedes premium series.

People also see all kinds of baby Mercedes now and that helps skew the perception of how the sales are doing.

fintail · November 2018

Mind you, most non-NA markets didn't get Lexus until many years after it arrived here. Japan didn't get it until the 21st century. There are urban legends about Lexus meaning "Luxury EXperiment for the US" or "Luxury EXperience for the US", but I suspect it is just a made up word, as Toyota has a history of pleasant sounding created names for its cars.

ES debuted for MY 1990 alongside the LS. It was also known as the Toyota Windom (Camry-based), and the first 3 generations had faux hardtop styling. The first generation had a very JDM look, and early ES are quite rare now. For MY 1992, the ES received a modern somewhat swoopy/rounded update (like Camry), and moved upscale just a little, IMO. Sales really took off then. The rest is history, no doubt the volume model behind the the RX.

IMO, the ES doesn't hurt Lexus perception, it is a fine car. Some of these perception issues are also unique to this market. I suspect the smaller models like the CT and HS impacted perception more, and they were slow sellers, eventually discontinued. MB may get some issues from the CLA and GLA, but in other markets, they've sold utilitarian looking hatchbacks (along with semis, buses, garbage trucks, et al) for years, and nobody minds it.

imidazol97 said:

Interesting about the etymology of the higher end Lexi.

When did the ES series of Camry faux Lexus come into play. I believe a lot of people smear their judgement of sales of Lexus based on seeing a lot of the ES models on the roads. IOW, how did the true premium vehicles of Lexus compare to the Mercedes premium series.

People also see all kinds of baby Mercedes now and that helps skew the perception of how the sales are doing.

berri · November 2018

I'm not really into expensive German cars, and if I got one I'd make sure I only held it until the warranty was over, but I have a friend who loves them and travels worldwide quite a bit. He claims that you don't get a real luxury MB unless it is an E Class. Below that, he says those vehicles are just gussied up mid priced or commercial vehicles outside of North America. I don't really know, but found his view interesting???

fintail · November 2018

I'm a MB fanboy, and IMO the true luxury doesn't really come in until the S-class, or maybe a very highly equipped (top few percent of production, MSRP probably >75K+) E. A normal E still does taxi duty in many countries, is usually equipped with a 4 cyl and Tex, etc. I don't see anything wrong with that. The brand was never really only about "luxury", that's something created by this market. It has historically been a build quality/engineering brand with a luxury model range at the top.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2018

Not only did Lexus re-define the luxury car market in America, it redefined what "reliable" means in America.

Lexus is the benchmark, and sits comfortably at the top of the list in most reliability studies. Mercedes hasn't been able to match it for 28 years, at least not so far.

Mercedes owns a debt of gratitude to Lexus---it forced them to up their game. Benz was getting pretty blase by 1990.

uplanderguy · November 2018

Not only did Lexus re-define the luxury car market in America, it redefined what "reliable" means in America.

Seems that Acura didn't get the message though.

thebean · November 2018

fintail said:
I'm a MB fanboy, and IMO the true luxury doesn't really come in until the S-class, or maybe a very highly equipped (top few percent of production, MSRP probably >75K+) E. A normal E still does taxi duty in many countries, is usually equipped with a 4 cyl and Tex, etc. I don't see anything wrong with that. The brand was never really only about "luxury", that's something created by this market. It has historically been a build quality/engineering brand with a luxury model range at the top.

Thus is why the MB tag line "The best or nothing" makes me grit my teeth as much as "Toyota Excitement".

Not true, especially the lower end MB's.

fintail · November 2018

I try to tune out marketeer babble. "The Ultimate Driving Machine", "Innovation That Excites", "An American Revolution" and others, ugh.

thebean said:

Thus is why the MB tag line "The best or nothing" makes me grit my teeth as much as "Toyota Excitement". Not true, especially the lower end MB's.

fintail · November 2018

On that I can agree. Lexus helped the Germans evolve into a new era (and it took some time), whether they wanted to or not. It worked out for the better, as sales show. They probably also slowed price inflation, at least for awhile.

Mr_Shiftright said:

Mercedes owns a debt of gratitude to Lexus---it forced them to up their game. Benz was getting pretty blase by 1990.

Mr_Shiftright · November 2018

uplanderguy said:

Not only did Lexus re-define the luxury car market in America, it redefined what "reliable" means in America.

Seems that Acura didn't get the message though.

I know. That always mystified me. Perhaps Toyota is much better at "doing its homework". When it launched Lexus, the amount of R&D and number of prototypes was.....intense. I think Benz in the 1980s got too complacent, as in "whatever we do, they'll buy it".

But you're certainly right. Just being "made in Japan" doesn't guarantee you anything. Honda has had more than a few missteps.

Every automaker screws up now and then. The trick is to not get a reputation for doing it regularly. You hear me FCA?

berri · December 2018

I like what I see in the upcoming Lincoln Aviator pictures and write ups so far. The Explorer is supposed to share a lot of this. Maybe a potential home run like the 90's Explorer. I was going to say "blow out" model, but then I didn't know if it will come with Firestone tires

Seriously though, these are going to perhaps be intriguing when they come out.

fintail · December 2018

Speaking of Honda goofs, I assume many have known for a long time that late 90s-early 00s Accords can have clearcoat fail issues. Lately I have noticed the same issues on 2006+ Civics.

MB vs Lexus can go both ways, too. It's interesting to note than in 1988, MB had a great lineup, but some of the models were quite old - the S-class of that era entered production in 1979, and the SL in 1971 (!). Today, Lexus sometimes has some aging models that maybe are only updated via the competition - the prior LS became really long in the tooth by the mid teens. I also suspect Lexus wouldn't have any sport or psuedo-sport models without the existence of AMG and M.

Mr_Shiftright · December 2018

Does anyone even buy an SL anymore? I would guess that model is going away pretty soon now that they have an S cabriolet.

fintail · December 2018

I think there are still a few retired dentists in Del Boca Vista and Lucille Bluth types in La Jolla who buy them.

Funny, SL sales have been low for years, but every potential competitor fails while the old name marches on. I can't imagine MB discontinuing it even with low sales, they can afford to keep it around just for historical reasons.

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