Real-World Trade-In Values

xwesx · June 2021

jpp75 said:

I know....I really don't want to go back to a gas vehicle but a sedan just doesn't work for places I like to go and things I like to do.

I really expected Rivian would have their vehicles out by now but they're behind on deliveries and not sharing much on timelines and unfortunately there's nothing else in the EV world that would really do what I want.

Yeah, I definitely get it! I was really stoked about Rivian as well, and am definitely still interested. However, it's been quite the couple years, and I know that I'll just have to keep this one on the wish list for a while longer.

Are you in line for a pickup or SUV variant?

jpp75 · June 2021

xwesx said:

jpp75 said:

I know....I really don't want to go back to a gas vehicle but a sedan just doesn't work for places I like to go and things I like to do.

I really expected Rivian would have their vehicles out by now but they're behind on deliveries and not sharing much on timelines and unfortunately there's nothing else in the EV world that would really do what I want.
Yeah, I definitely get it! I was really stoked about Rivian as well, and am definitely still interested. However, it's been quite the couple years, and I know that I'll just have to keep this one on the wish list for a while longer.

Are you in line for a pickup or SUV variant?

I've gone back and forth, right now my order is for a truck. The SUV is a little larger than I was expecting and 95% of the time I'm the only person in a vehicle so the truck is probably fine....but I don't have to commit yet so maybe I'll go back to the SUV.

tifighter · June 2021

You can order the truck with the big battery now, which is a plus. I asked them when the S could be ordered with the biggest battery, and they replied that they won't comment on that until next year.

jpp75 · June 2021

tifighter said:
You can order the truck with the big battery now, which is a plus. I asked them when the S could be ordered with the biggest battery, and they replied that they won't comment on that until next year.

There's always been a bit of speculation about the larger battery in the S and if/how it would fit, for a while they stated it wouldn't even be available but seems like they're figuring it out.

Getting back to the theme of the thread, when I told the dealer I was going to pass on the Touareg he was nice but certainly persistent. They offered me $45k for my Model3, which after factoring in the tax credit I received from Colorado, is more than I paid for it 9 months and 10,500 miles ago.

roadburner · June 2021

@qbrozen: Did this 2020 M2C go through the auctions?
WBS2U7C05L7E36884
Thanks!

qbrozen · June 2021

roadburner said:
@qbrozen: Did this 2020 M2C go through the auctions?

WBS2U7C05L7E36884

Thanks!

I'm going to guess not since the autocheck shows no data since new, and auction normally triggers an event. But here is the list, just in case.

roadburner · June 2021

@qbrozen said:
I'm going to guess not since the autocheck shows no data since new, and auction normally triggers an event. But here is the list, just in case.

Thanks. Probably a wild goose chase as it’s at the BMW Store in Cincinnati and they are usually quite proud of their inventory and tend to really lowball trades.

jpp75 · June 2021

@qbrozen Do you have any info on what the XC40 Recharge models are going for? Here's a specific one if it helps (I'm not interested in this one, just a used one I found online)

YV4ED3UR7M2450689

I tried Carvana but it's too new, however I do see a few used ones starting to show up here and there. Overpriced for sure but depending on what they are going for at auction I may be enticed to try one as a hold over until the Rivian arrives.

No worries if you don't have any data!

qbrozen · June 2021

Zero transactions

jpp75 · June 2021

Not surprising but appreciate you checking!

qbrozen · June 2021

@jpp75 said:
Not surprising but appreciate you checking!

FYI, based on what I’m seeing used ones priced at, you can get one far cheaper new. 18-20% off sticker plus another $2k if costco member and another $500 for affiliate/penfed.

steine13 · June 2021

Update:
>> 2012 FORD FUSION SEL
>> V6 FWD 93k, light blue over tan leather.
>> Clean, maintained & no accidents per carfax
>> No roof, automatic (she'll complain), alloys, OK tires.

This car has now 108k, a recent crack in the rear bumper cover, and is otherwise clean... call it B minus on the outside, and A minus indoors.

@qbrozen had opined recently, assuming a car without issues and 104k -- thanks for that!

>> No real comps but looks to me like $7k is still a decent number [fair retail].

I had figured on a quick craigslist sale, list at $5,900 and take what i can get.

Yesterday I took the afternoon off and went to the largest and sleaziest car dealer in the area, Sundance Chevrolet ("Yee-Haw!") and asked for a quote. I knew they'd be hungry for decent merchandise. We wandered from 4,200 to 4,500, then shook at $4,750. So net of taxes, $150 to drive 18 months and fifteen thousand miles; 2021 is a wondrous year in the used-car business. Meanwhile I'm glad to not have to deal with all the craigslist flakes; my last outing had cranks outnumbering real folks at least five to one. Can't imagine it's gotten better.

Just checked -- the car is already listed on their website for the low low price of $7,900.

I'm loving the Impreza. A much more likeable car than the Outback. Not exactly sporty, but much less ponderous. Took me half a second to get used to the manual transmission. It is the korrekt way to drive. Next are some light modifications.. the base steering heel is truly nasty and will be covered with Wheelskins leather pronto.

cheers -mathias

jpp75 · June 2021

qbrozen said:

@jpp75 said:

Not surprising but appreciate you checking!

FYI, based on what I’m seeing used ones priced at, you can get one far cheaper new. 18-20% off sticker plus another $2k if costco member and another $500 for affiliate/penfed.

Thanks, that's what I was thinking as well. This would be a temporary vehicle until I get the Rivian, so maybe 6 - 9 months? It's not something I'd look to make money on but as long as I didn't lose a ton, which based on the used pricing I saw it seemed possible but obviously it's a huge unknown.

Unfortunately I let my Costco membership lapse when I got the Tesla, as a single guy I really only used it for gas, wish I had it now.

But curious where you're seeing 18 - 20% off sticker? The three dealers here aren't showing any discounts on their websites but as @michaell and @breld and I were chatting about last night, one local dealer has 30 in stock and I can't imagine they're flying off lots.

stickguy · June 2021

I’m really considering the manual civic hatchback. Might be my last chance to own a stick, at least one that isn’t an older weekend only toy.

qbrozen · June 2021

jpp75 said:

Thanks, that's what I was thinking as well. This would be a temporary vehicle until I get the Rivian, so maybe 6 - 9 months? It's not something I'd look to make money on but as long as I didn't lose a ton, which based on the used pricing I saw it seemed possible but obviously it's a huge unknown.

Unfortunately I let my Costco membership lapse when I got the Tesla, as a single guy I really only used it for gas, wish I had it now.

But curious where you're seeing 18 - 20% off sticker? The three dealers here aren't showing any discounts on their websites but as @michaell and @breld and I were chatting about last night, one local dealer has 30 in stock and I can't imagine they're flying off lots.

That would include the fed money. So maybe another $4k dealer discount? Not sure where that's coming from. I can't link it here. I'll have to message you.

henryn · June 2021

I can remember people arguing (debating) here in these forums, several years back, about whether a manual transmission car was less likely to be stolen. The idea being that the thieves would not know how to drive a standard transmission car, so they wouldn't steal it.

I have no idea whether that's true. But I did bring up the subject with a group of younger people at work, about 2 or 3 years ago. There were about 12 or 15 people present, average age late 20s, and I asked how many of them could drive a standard transmission car. The answer was discouraging. Not a single one of the women, and only 2 or 3 men.

xwesx · June 2021

When my family visited friends in Montreal in 2013, my son and I made a game of counting the number of manual transmissions among the total population of street-parked cars as we were walking to the subway system. It was only a few blocks of random city street, but the final ratio was half. HALF!

That was encouraging (though it won't make any difference in the end).

stickguy · June 2021

Mentioned the manual in the civic to the wife. She was unsure, partly thinking when I decided to sell in 3 years no one would want it. I think it will be the opposite. The die hards will be all over it!

sda · June 2021

I’ve been lazy and haven’t researched. What trim levels can you get the Civic with a manual?

stickguy · June 2021

not announced yet. can only get it on the Hatch and that was only officially released yesterday, but pricing and trim details still TBD.

steine13 · June 2021

So the day I take delivery of an Impreza, Honda announces a non turbo hatch stick. Grrr.
Still not a fan of pushbutton e brakes and digital dashboards...

corvette · June 2021

Wasn't the previous generation hatch turbo only? I think I'd prefer having the turbo.

Edit: Weirdly, I think both Edmunds and C&D have reported worse performance numbers for the turbo in the new model, compared to the old turbo, despite it having more power and very little weight gain.

stickguy · June 2021

came both ways as does the new one. Not sure yet what engines/trims will come with the manual though.

steine13 · June 2021

I drive lots of one and two-mile trips. No good w a small turbo engine, esp. with subzero nights in winter. And yes, gen 10 was turbo only w the stick.

tjc78 · June 2021

I can’t really drive a manual. I mean… I can and have in a pinch but not with any regularity that I consider myself proficient at it.

Put another way … You can boil pasta but that doesn’t mean you can cook.

stickguy · June 2021

I did it for so long I still subconsciously shift when I am driving. The bottle of hand sanitizer in the console is at just the right spot.

henryn · June 2021

stickguy said:
I did it for so long I still subconsciously shift when I am driving. The bottle of hand sanitizer in the console is at just the right spot.

Speaking of shifters, I am really not fond of the rotary shift knob on this Pacifica. It is located a little too close to the volume control knob, and I am a bit paranoid that I'm going to shift into reverse while driving down the freeway at 70, thinking I am just adjusting the radio volume. Hopefully this sucker has some kind of safety interlock to prevent that, but I don't want to find out the hard way.

"Sir, please explain to the jury just how you came to total out your car and kill 7 innocent people."

"Well, it's like this. A Van Halen song came on and I was trying to pump up the volume and ...."

corvette · June 2021

Lol! I assume it has redundant controls on the steering wheel? I almost always use those unless I’m stopped at a drive through or the like with the wheel off center.

stickguy · June 2021

that is why I never cared about the whole "honda took away the volume knob" drama. I never used it anyway!

and I would assume, since it is all electronic and computer controlled, that it would not allow you to shift into reverse at speed. Regardless of what you did with the dial.

sda · June 2021

I took the TL in for service today. The oil drip I mentioned a while ago is the rear main seal leaking. Ugh. It’s not leaking much. The dip stick was still reading full after over 3000 mi and 9 months. The rubber seal is less than $40 yet labor! just over $1900. I will live with the drip and monitor it closely. My daughter may inherit my car at some point. The TL runs and drives great at 163k and received a clean bill of health overall.

sda · June 2021

While at the Honda dealer I was able to see several new Civics. They look really nice in person. Dealer had a $2k market adjustment and $2k worth of extras making the $29k Touring $33k. Sheesh.

sda · June 2021

Please move above posts to Cars and Conversations, posted in wrong thread. Oops and thanks

henryn · June 2021

sda said:
While at the Honda dealer I was able to see several new Civics. They look really nice in person. Dealer had a $2k market adjustment and $2k worth of extras making the $29k Touring $33k. Sheesh.

Rather typical these days. Hard to find a car at or under MSRP. Unless you're @qbrozen, the master of lease deals!

henryn · June 2021

sda said:
I took the TL in for service today. The oil drip I mentioned a while ago is the rear main seal leaking. Ugh. It’s not leaking much. The dip stick was still reading full after over 3000 mi and 9 months. The rubber seal is less than $40 yet labor! just over $1900. I will live with the drip and monitor it closely. My daughter may inherit my car at some point. The TL runs and drives great at 163k and received a clean bill of health overall.

Been there, done that. More than once. The only real negative is the oil spots on your driveway or garage floor, whichever.

Not many people are going to spend $1,900 to fix a very small oil leak on a car with 163k miles. Back when I drove used Cadillacs, there were people who highly criticized the Northstar engine for oil leaks. The oil leaks were really minor, did not cause most owners to add oil between changes. But it highly upset some people with spotless garage floors.

qbrozen · June 2021

@henryn said:
Rather typical these days. Hard to find a car at or under MSRP. Unless you're @qbrozen, the master of lease deals!

@28firefighter got a much better Wrangler deal than I did.

28firefighter · June 2021

Maybe. Washington taxes on the rebate ($787) and registration (another $700) ate up a lot of my discount discount. I’m quite happy and don’t have any plans to flip.

SamtrGes · July 2021

Looking for advice and feedback. I have a BMW X1 (white) coming off lease. The residual is $23.3k. Miles are 34.5k. It was a lease takeover, I got a good deal, no money down. I can buy the X1, but would prefer something a little bigger. Looking at 2019 Acura RDX Base AWD. I have found a few under 20k miles in the $33k range.

Right now, Carvana has dropped their price for my X1 down to $25k (think it was as high as $26k or so). Am not getting impression dealers will offer much more. I can sell in this silly market to capture equity but then I need to also overpay in this silly market. How inflated is the 2019 RDX base AWD at $33k? 30% or so like the rest of the market?

Maybe I just buy the BMW and wait out the market and then try to swap for RDX in next 12-24 months? Should I try getting a better deal on the RDX at auction through an auction guy to avoid the dealer juice? Many thanks for any insight.

stickguy · July 2021

spend a little more and get a new RDX. If nothing else, avoid any of the 1st year teething pains.

qbrozen · July 2021

Lots to unpack here.

BMW is being a bit of a PITA with 3rd-party buyouts right now. Just takes a little more work on your part but can be done.
Is it really worth $10k more to get a vehicle that is minimally larger (12” longer, from what I see)? It is only 1 yr newer. Seems like a failing proposition, IMHO.

In any case, as to the numbers, $33k is pretty cheap since that is what they are doing at auction. But $25k for yours is low, provided it is an xdrive with monroof (at a minimum) and no bad history. If you continue to consider this, make sure you get other bids.

SamtrGes · July 2021

qbrozen said:
Lots to unpack here.

1. BMW is being a bit of a PITA with 3rd-party buyouts right now. Just takes a little more work on your part but can be done.

Agreed and understood. I have the dealer payoff the hard part is convincing the 3rd party dealer it will go through okay.

qbrozen said:
2. Is it really worth $10k more to get a vehicle that is minimally larger (12” longer, from what I see)? It is only 1 yr newer. Seems like a failing proposition, IMHO.

Probably not. But in this case, happy wife, happy life. I am guessing that the price of the RDX will fall more than what I would lose in the equity in the X1 by waiting. I should get $3k-$4k from selling the X1, but would guess the RDX will drop more than that if the market normalizes. So smart move is to probably buy the X1 and wait. No idea how long that will take though.

qbrozen said:
In any case, as to the numbers, $33k is pretty cheap since that is what they are doing at auction. But $25k for yours is low, provided it is an xdrive with monroof (at a minimum) and no bad history. If you continue to consider this, make sure you get other bids.

Thank you. Good to know (at least for now) $33k is what they are doing at auction. I will work to see if I can get better offers on my X1. It is xdrive with convenience package (moonroof) + navigation + heated seats and steering wheel. I'm going to try all the Carvana types, email the BMW dealers in the area, and also list it privately. Many thanks!

SamtrGes · July 2021

stickguy said:
spend a little more and get a new RDX. If nothing else, avoid any of the 1st year teething pains.

That would be nice, but this is another $10k jump and out of my price range. Unless I am missing something for a new one?

SamtrGes · July 2021

also if I can get $4k for my X1, that would credit against the $10k increase in price, so really only $6k more.

qbrozen · July 2021

@SamtrGes said:
also if I can get $4k for my X1, that would credit against the $10k increase in price, so really only $6k more.

Kind of a false economy, though. That’s like saying “I got my paycheck today, so my groceries were free.”

SamtrGes · July 2021

@qbrozen said:

@SamtrGes said:
also if I can get $4k for my X1, that would credit against the $10k increase in price, so really only $6k more.

Kind of a false economy, though. That’s like saying “I got my paycheck today, so my groceries were free.”

Maybe I am wrong but I was looking at it like this. This was a lease takeover so I put nothing down. I was paid to take it over, actually. I can buy the car for $23k which is below current market levels but not normal. That equity will disappear once the market rationalizes. If I sell it now, I have a window to cash in on the equity which will not last. Since I didn’t buy the car or put any down to start the lease that equity feels like “free” equity to me if I unlock it, no?

kyfdx · July 2021

SamtrGes said:

@qbrozen said:

@SamtrGes said:

also if I can get $4k for my X1, that would credit against the $10k increase in price, so really only $6k more.

Kind of a false economy, though. That’s like saying “I got my paycheck today, so my groceries were free.”

Maybe I am wrong but I was looking at it like this. This was a lease takeover so I put nothing down. I was paid to take it over, actually. I can buy the car for $23k which is below current market levels but not normal. That equity will disappear once the market rationalizes. If I sell it now, I have a window to cash in on the equity which will not last. Since I didn’t buy the car or put any down to start the lease that equity feels like “free” equity to me if I unlock it, no?

I agree... of course, if the market is having you "overpay" for the Acura, as well. And then it rationalizes, you won't be any farther ahead. But, as @qbrozen noted, that's auction value for the Acura, so if you want/need it, it seems like a good deal.

qbrozen · July 2021

@SamtrGes said:

Maybe I am wrong but I was looking at it like this. This was a lease takeover so I put nothing down. I was paid to take it over, actually. I can buy the car for $23k which is below current market levels but not normal. That equity will disappear once the market rationalizes. If I sell it now, I have a window to cash in on the equity which will not last. Since I didn’t buy the car or put any down to start the lease that equity feels like “free” equity to me if I unlock it, no?

You can rationalize it any way you want. Haha.
But it most definitely is not free because you made monthly payments. So it is like getting a bit of a refund. That refund is YOUR money, however. Using it on a new vehicle is taking YOUR money out of YOUR pocket. It just doesn’t feel that way because it is money you weren’t counting on. Doesn’t make it any less valuable, however.

xwesx · July 2021

SamtrGes said:
Maybe I am wrong but I was looking at it like this. This was a lease takeover so I put nothing down. I was paid to take it over, actually. I can buy the car for $23k which is below current market levels but not normal. That equity will disappear once the market rationalizes. If I sell it now, I have a window to cash in on the equity which will not last. Since I didn’t buy the car or put any down to start the lease that equity feels like “free” equity to me if I unlock it, no?

I agree with all that is being said, yours included. Ultimately, the only way you come out ahead in the current market is if you can sell the X1 and not buy anything until things settle out a bit. Would there still be a ~$6K spread between the X1 and the RDX? Maybe (probably not, as it sounds like the offer so far might be low for the conditions); the only time you can reasonably get ahead is when you choose the timing on both sides of the transaction.

ronsteve · July 2021

xwesx said:

I agree with all that is being said, yours included. Ultimately, the only way you come out ahead in the current market is if you can sell the X1 and not buy anything until things settle out a bit. Would there still be a ~$6K spread between the X1 and the RDX? Maybe (probably not, as it sounds like the offer so far might be low for the conditions); the only time you can reasonably get ahead is when you choose the timing on both sides of the transaction.

There was a brief period back in the spring where there was a slight disconnect, with Carvana starting to throw silly money at trades, but still some deals to be had on inventory that was gotten cheaply even late in the winter. There just wasn't much inventory (which I know there still isn't).

Now all sides of the market seem pretty crazy, and I would hate to be trying to replace a really old vehicle right now.

jpp75 · July 2021

The Land Rover dealer where I got the Defender has already listed my 2020 Model3. It was the Long Range AWD with the 19" wheels and the "premium" white interior, (no "full self driving") and had 11,400 miles on it.

They're asking $53,900 which is about $3,500 over the original MSRP

SamtrGes · July 2021

Thanks @qbrozen and @xwesx for thoughts. You are right that I was not counting on that money when I took over lease. But it is still my money and money is fungible. But the only way I can unlock that equity is to sell. If I could sell now and wait 12-24 months (or whenever this is over), I would do it in a heartbeat. I would have sold this past spring! But don't know if I want to or can wait that long. I feel like if I buy the BMW now for $23k it is a decent deal for the current market, but if I then try to sell in 12 months I won't get the offers I might be able to get now. Catch-22! Many thanks for comments though.

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