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Subaru Crew - Future Models II

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Comments

  • bluesubiebluesubie Member Posts: 3,497
    How accurate can CR's data actually be? It's based on responses from their readers.

    -Dennis
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Small sample, IMO.

    CR-V: one figure explains the mileage - the final drive ratio. They are:

    Automatic: 4.438:1
    Manual: 4.765:1

    That's ultra short, but needed for a 2.4l to pull that kind of weight with blocky aerodynamics.

    The 3.5l V6 has torque to overcome those, so gearing can remain relaxed.

    Subaru's 2.5l is closer to the Honda engine. Indeed, the 2.5i models have final drives around 4.1:1, i.e. fairly short. That's why I don't expect a big jump in fuel economy.

    The H6 is geared tall, watch, I bet mileage will be impressive.

    -juice
  • gotenks243gotenks243 Member Posts: 116
    Sorry, looking back it was JD Power, not CR that gave the Baja top marks for reliability. Granted that's only their stupid first 90 days thing, but it's still some recognition.

    I just got my Consumer Reports issue today as well, and lo and behold, they jaded the Baja repeatedly for its reliability. But then, interestingly enough, in the section where they break down problem areas and model years, the Baja got almost all red circles (good). That's exempting only one blank (average) circle for "Body Integrity." Are all Baja owners having their beds fall apart? Switchback not working? I haven't seen any reliability complaints as I peruse the Baja thread on Edmunds and the forum at nabisco. Yet CR still says it's 98% worse than average, without elaboration. Is CR killing the reputation of a good vehicle by mistake?

    On the 2.5i again, I'm coming from a 3200-so pound Outback with an automatic, so a manual 2.5i with its reduced curb weight will feel plenty quick to me. I prefer a fun to drive car over a fast one anyway (test drove a Baja Turbo... enough torque to spin the tires on launch and tons of power for going fast, but its weight and taller suspension diminish the fun... I was much happier with the lighter and sportier, albeit slower, 2.5 RS I drove right afterwards). Thus hopefully too the suspension will be tuned towards sport.

    Old 2.2l Legacys got something like 23/29, right? Maybe the .30 cD on the new Legacy wagon (.28 on the sedan) can push the highway fuel economy to 30mpg. The gearing is crucial, of course, but one can hope for a more fuel efficient Subaru.

    Mike
  • johnclineiijohnclineii Member Posts: 2,287
    There is an explanation at the beginning of the reliability ratings in CR that explains how a car with all or nearly all red circles can get a black X due to predicted bad reliability. Essentially, if the car is new enough, it can have fewer problems than average, but MANY more than a car its age SHOULD be having already. When this is the case: red circles but black check mark and predicted poor reliability.

    Interestingly, Subaru's have usually had a few more problems than average AT FIRST, then as the cars age, they have fewer problems than others. There is a chart in the same CR that shows exactly that as well.

    Two things: CR ratings are meant to be read, not just scanned...you can (and I fear most do) get some very incorrect impressions by just glancing at them.

    Second, I agree with others. CR probably had a VERY small sample size here. That being said, they would usually (in the past, anyway) have said TOO FEW TO RATE. The new auto people at CR are not the ones that used to be there, for good and ill.

    I particularly miss the specs chart, which, unless I missed it somehow, is gone. The measurements were done consistently across brands, and very useful.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Here's another theory - the back seat is a little cramped, the whole cabin is. That makes people less comfortable and more likely to complain about things like wind noise and NVH in general.

    The Baja thread here isn't very active, so we also don't have a big enough sample to make a judgement. Let's see next year when there are more on the roads (like 5).

    -juice
  • rob_mrob_m Member Posts: 820
    I had one for a couple days as a loaner. At first I was pretty excited about it. After 2 days, not so, as the cuteness factor began to wear off. IMO, our Outback wagon equipped with thule bars and all the attachments can handle our bikes, skis, and almost any trip to Home Depot. My wife's first comment - where do I put all the groceries?
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Get a bed extender and a cap. The cap is now a factory option, right?

    -juice
  • c_hunterc_hunter Member Posts: 4,487
    I saw three of them yesterday, which is more than I've seen in months!

    Craig
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Saw a silver one today. I didn't notice before, but I don't like the seams around the tail light surrounds. They look better in darker colors.

    -juice
  • eps105eps105 Member Posts: 216
    Johnclineii got it right -- the red circles, half circles, etc. in the CR reliability ratings don't reflect an "excellent", "good", etc. rating as they normally do in other CR ratings, rather they reflect the range of percentage of problems in each category. You have to read the table at the beginning of the section. A new car should (must) have almost all red circles to be considered acceptable reliability in its most recent year.

    I do not believe that the low rating is due to a small sample size. CR follows statistical guidelines to determine if reported results are significantly large enough to be considered a sample of the true population. (Statistical speak here.) If there's not enough data, they report "insignificant data."

    The much more plausible reason for the low ratings is what we refer to in Quality Assurance-speak as a "common cause" defect. That is, there may have been only two or three nagging problems that crept up on the Baja, but occurred to a large number of buyers. This could be the result of a supplier defect on one part that made its way into 1,000 cars, or improper installation on the production line of an adhesive, etc., etc..

    Locke2c suggested that these are mostly the same components used on the Forester (actually more like the Legacy) but that thinking is flawed because there are many more Opportunities for Failure (more Quality speak!) than just the common parts.

    I predict that the Baja's reliability will improve to better-than-average for 2004 and become a CR recommended pick as Subaru works out the very few but pervasive problems that are spoiling its ratings.

    My $.02
    Elliot
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I dunno, Elliot. For instance, they're missing several model years for certain Hyundai cars.

    How could they not collect enough data on those? They sell in far higher numbers than the Baja.

    It doesn't seem to add up.

    -juice
  • beanboybeanboy Member Posts: 442
    Has been out for a year already in other markets. I'd feel confident in buying the first year, which I might just do after I test drive a Legacy GT. What's the latest on when prices will be available?

    -B
  • locke2clocke2c Member Posts: 5,038
    my thinking that this data is too dependent on human factors is flawed, eh? interesting.

    so what's an opportunity for failure? I'll not let jargon get in the way of a good debate. :)

    ~c
  • bigelmbigelm Member Posts: 995
    ">March 9: All dealers will have info on specs, options & pricing."

    Think Subaru delayed this or were Mark and I just givin' a load of.....
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    The area where the Baja scored poorly was in squeeks and rattles, maybe the bed and passthrough are noiser than expected.

    -juice
  • kenskens Member Posts: 5,869
    My local dealer doesn't think Subaru will have prices to them until right before the 05 models arrive in late May. He noted that that's typically how things go with new models. Subaru wants the dealers to focus on clearing 04s from inventory.

    Ken
  • bluesubiebluesubie Member Posts: 3,497
    Yeah, I saw a car carrier with '04's on it week before last. I was surprised that they're still being shipped.

    -Dennis
  • nematodenematode Member Posts: 448
    >Begin CR rant.

    I'm not so sure.
    1) They dont release any information on what statistical tests they use and how they use them. There are no methods only filtered data.
    2) They never provide "n" for any samples. I that red dot based on 10 samples or 1000 samples? How about that black dot? If its an opnion its fine but for reliability one needs to know how many cars of each type were sampled. I
    3) Its only based on CR subscribers AND on top of that only those who reply that count. Its biased before starting.
    4) Their methods for "normalizing" are never discussed. How do they compare the number they sample with problems relative to the number produced? What is their threshold for accepting or rejecting?
    5) No independent validation of their data. Since they dont release any of their data its not possible to run the tests youself. Anyone with a basic stats book could do it.

    As far as I know nobody knows what CR does to get their reliability ratings or what their thresholds are exactly because they dont release that information. It does not bother me when they give a blender a black dot for crushing ice or a black dot for a car with unconfortable seats. Those are valuable opnions but putting out reliability data thats based on "statistics" is a little dubious when you dont share your numbers for validation

    >End CR rant.
  • jimmyp1atworkjimmyp1atwork Member Posts: 42
    "Has been out for a year already in other markets. I'd feel confident in buying the first year, which I might just do after I test drive a Legacy GT."

    Different engine, Beanboy. 2.0t vs 2.5t.

    Jim
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Actually, they do share some of that information, I've seen some of it myself (not all).

    -juice
  • bblachabblacha Member Posts: 160
    Any objective statistics course will teach that representative sample "selection", not sample "size", affects reliability of surveys. CR lets its sample select itself - it's skewed even if they have a gazillion responses. (They have 675,000.)

    That said, I've yet to find a better reliability measure than CR.

    Juice - how did you get your hands on that data? Curious...

    Bart
  • nematodenematode Member Posts: 448
    juice how were you able to get the data? I was as a subscriber years ago and I asked for the data both by phone and in writing and was rejected. Were you able to get the current data or really old data?
  • bluesubiebluesubie Member Posts: 3,497
    Someone should write CR and ask for more info on their Baja ratings (size of sample, examples of problems, etc.)

    -Dennis
  • sweet_subiesweet_subie Member Posts: 1,394
    Simple, screw CR ! They have been very geeky lately.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Oh, in editorials here and there. They often put info in press releases that they don't include in their magazine. Not that I've seen a lot of it, just some here and there. You'll see mention of unpublished details in other newspapers and publications, too.

    It's been a while since I took Stat, did so twice, Undergrad and then Grad school.

    From what I can remember, I'd love to see them publish Confidence Intervals. Then they could rate a car with, say, 90 or 95% likelihood of having X number of problems in the time frame observed. That would be more scientific.

    But the public doesn't study statistics, so they have to dumb it down.

    -juice
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Let's just look at that 675,000 number for a second. Subaru has 1% market share so let's say roughly 6,750 of those are Subies, not a lot really.

    Now, how many of those are Bajas? Maybe 5% or so, sales weighted.

    Actually, no, sorry, that's 5% per year, but Baja has only been out for one model year. So you're talking about, what 20k Bajas out of maybe 2 million Subarus that would qualify as new enough for their ratings?

    Pulling some more guesstimates out of my, um, calculator, that's about 1%. 1% of 6750 is 68 vehicles.

    A tiny sample, we can all agree.

    -juice
  • kenskens Member Posts: 5,869
    "Different engine, Beanboy. 2.0t vs 2.5t."

    True, but the 2.5T would have been used in the FXT, Baja Turbo and STi for a year.

    Ken
  • pon1pon1 Member Posts: 196
    Seeing the Legacy GT and the OBi for the first time at our local show this afternoon.

    Anyone got any burning questions....other than price and availability?

    James
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I'm not sure they've published the ground clearance spec on the regular Legacy 2.5i and GT, see if they know those now.

    Maybe final curb weights? Those were still not determined.

    -juice
  • emtemt Member Posts: 39
    Once I started buying cars listed on the CR recommended list, problems stopped. I have 1 sube and 2 toys. Zero problems, although my 93 sube is starting to leak oil..but hey, it has 100K on it, so I am not upset.
  • jimmyp1atworkjimmyp1atwork Member Posts: 42
    "True, but the 2.5T would have been used in the FXT, Baja Turbo and STi for a year.

    Ken"

    True, Ken, and I thought about that, but they do vary slightly across the different models, enough so that I would still like to see what happens for at least 6 months. I am tempted to buy the first one at my local dealer, but, of course, that's nuts.

    Jim
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    The intercooler will be unique to the new models, this cross-flow design.

    The intake plenums also look unique. That plus the exhaust.

    -juice
  • nematodenematode Member Posts: 448
    2k Outback Limited. In the first 2 years it went back to the dealer for 13 problems and I believe 2 recalls. Thats not good. Then 2 years of no trouble and now its got 3 new problems (leaking headlight, visor fell off while driving, and leaky door seal again). Its also been recalled again for potential head gasket leak. I stil really like the car but I'm certainly glad I got the 7/100 warranty.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    That's pretty atypical.

    -juice
  • locke2clocke2c Member Posts: 5,038
    I bought the first 1999 Impreza RS my dealer got... watched them roll it off the truck, test drove it (had already driven a '98), and stayed and haggled with the dealer until they Bowed Down and I left happy. :)

    ~c
  • kenskens Member Posts: 5,869
    Way to go. Did you already know that the 99 switched to Phase II?

    Ken
  • beanboybeanboy Member Posts: 442
    True, different iternations of the same motor. I'd really like to wait a couple of years, so issues like head gaskets can crop up--or not.

    -B
  • locke2clocke2c Member Posts: 5,038
    yep, I knew the SOHC engine was new & improved, the shift linkage was better... front end different.

    really I wanted more power. a lot more. but I liked the overall package enough to buy and had full intents on being one of the first to trade up to an Impreza turbo in a few years.

    ...and then the bugeye came along.

    no offense bugeyed owners!
    ~c
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Over at nasioc, in the News & Rumors area, there's a thread listing all the new '05 colors.

    Bob
  • eps105eps105 Member Posts: 216
    I was at the Philadelphia Flower Show yesterday, for which Subaru is a major sponsor. They had Subies on display smattered throughout the show floor. Two things caught my eye.

    First was that they had a new '05 LL Bean Outback on display. Doors unlocked and everything. Sweet car -- looks like a winner. I was happy to see steering wheel mounted audio controls. I was beginning to think Subaru was getting behind the times and left these out.

    But something else caused me to do a double-take -- they had an '04 Forester XT Prem on display, or at least I THOUGHT it was an '04!

    First some background: I have an '03 Forester XS Premium and my ONLY complaint with the whole gosh darn car is the quirky auto climate controls (and associated overzealous high fan speeds).

    So when I looked in this XT, I was pleased to see Subaru had COMPLETELY redesigned the climate controls, making the knobs deeper & easier to grip, and adding an AUTO mode on EACH knob in-line with the manual settings. That is, you can have the fan speed on Off, Auto, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 and the air output on AUTO, floor, mix, dash, dash + defog, or defog. (The separate defog button is gone.) And the knob now twists freely, rather than having to ratchet it one-twist-at-a-time when changing it manually.

    So today, when I was looking at pictures of '04 Foresters on-line, I noticed that the '04s have the SAME controls as the '03s. So I believe I witnessed an '05 Forester, or maybe an '04 1/2!!

    Does anybody else know anything about this? Did I miss something? Am I losing my mind?

    Now I'm kicking myself that I didn't look at it closer to see what other changes they made!! Ahh!

    Elliot
  • kenskens Member Posts: 5,869
    Elliot,

    Thanks for the report. Did you happen to get any photos of the new Forester HVAC controls?

    Ken
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    The wife and I are going to the Philly flower show tomorrow. I plan to check it out. Thanks for the heads-ups!

    Bob
  • mutsuraboshimutsuraboshi Member Posts: 30
    No, you are not losing your mind.
    Only the FXT gets the upgraded HVAC controls for '04. Subaru wanted to distinguish it from the rest of the pack.
    Luch
  • lark6lark6 Member Posts: 2,565
    My wife and I were at the Flower Show last night. I spent some time looking at the new Outback (very classy) and didn't even bother to examine the Forester XT closely.

    Ed
  • eps105eps105 Member Posts: 216
    So the '04 Forester XT has different controls that the X & XS, huh? I didn't realize this, and even the Forester photo gallery on Edmunds for the XT shows the old controls (and the photos are clearly labeled as being from the XT).

    Anyway, here's the picture I took. For those of you that find the existing controls a bit quirky, you might agree that this is a 100% improvement.

    Anyone know if Subaru also stuck a small fan in the thermocouple so that the system responds quicker to changes in temp? If they did that too, then the Forester XT would be the greatest car of all time! :-)

    image
  • njswamplandsnjswamplands Member Posts: 1,760
    i have HAL
  • locke2clocke2c Member Posts: 5,038
    ugh, I sure hate silver clusters & HVAC. they are going to be so ridiculed in 10 years.

    it'll be worse than the split-into-3-pieces early to mid 90s GM truck radios.

    ~c
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    The Forester at the Philly Flower Show was indeed an '05 model!

    Note the following changes/upgrades:

    * The red is now Regatta Red, or so the sales person told me. It did look to be a bit brighter than the red on the current Foresters.

    * Clunky-looking "AWD" badge on rear hatch has been deleted. Like the '05 Legacy/Outback wagons, it now says "Symmetrical AWD, small, on the side rear quarter windows. Visually this is much better.

    * New 3-spoke steering wheel, again, much better looking than the current Forester's steering wheel. It appears to be a MOMO wheel, but it's unlike any current Subie MOMO wheels.

    * Cruise Control stalk is now like that found on the '05 Legacy/Outback & STi, with the on/off master switch now on the end of the stalk.

    The above are all good changes. Unfortunately it still has the same non-SportShift 4EAT, however. :(

    Also at Philly was a '05 LL Bean Outback, and a '04 Baja turbo.

    Subaru had vehicles at 3 different locations at the show; a very smart marketing move on SOA's part. This way you have 3 times the chance of marketing Subarus to the audience. Also smart marketing was the fact that Subaru had plastic bags to put fliers, etc. in. I only saw one other non-Subie plastic bag, but I saw lots of people with Subie bags.

    In the main entrance hallway was the new Outback, so you see it first as you enter the show.

    The Forester was located at the "official" Subie display, which had a beautiful garden arrangement. My wife loved the flower garden at this Subie display, and she knows her flowers, having worked in a garden center.

    Finally, at a "teaching display," with perhaps 50 chairs or so, they had the Baja turbo displayed, and with the bed full of flowers (naturally). What was smart about this was that Subaru had a captive audience while there was a lecturer talking about various aspects of gardening -- with the most logical "gardener's Subie" (the Baja) right there. Very smart marketing indeed.

    Bob
  • pon1pon1 Member Posts: 196
    Both subaru.ca and the 2005 OB canadian brochure I picked up at our auto show on Friday tell me Canada is getting five OB models for 2005:

    OBi base, cloth, no moonroof, 5 speed and auto

    OBi limited, leather, moonroof, auto for sure, not sure about the 5 speed

    OB 3.0R 6 cyl, base, cloth, no moonroof, auto

    OB XT turbo, leather, moonroof, 5 speed and auto

    OB 3.0R VDC 6 cyl, leather, moonroof, auto

    So no "base" OB XT here, but interestingly we do get a "base" 3.0R that will undercut the proice of the turbo (put a 5 speed in the 3.0R, make it run on regular gas, that would be of interest).

    The US appears to have gotten lucky for the 2005 MY and is getting an entry level base cloth Outback turbo. To get the turbo Outback in Canada with the mandatory "Limited" features will surely be cnd$40,000 or more....hence I will be forced back off the fence and into a 2005 Forester XT (Bob - thanks for the info)

    The staff at the show knew nothing much on the details (sorry Juice). Canadian pricing on the Legacy and OB is still ?? but colors are known and at the dealers.

    The OB 3.0R VDC and Leg GT Wagon were locked but they sure did look good from the outside, albeit not radically different from the outgoing models. The dual exhausts are distinctive, the OB tailpipes look really funky, the ends are turned down and point to the pavement....

    James
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I'll take any improvement, though I'm with Colin in terms of not liking that fake aluminum stuff. What's wrong with flat black trim?

    3 spoke wheel is a bigger improvement, IMO. Very nice.

    I'll take the CC on switch, why not.

    Interesting Canadian lineup. I'd consider an H6 with cloth.

    -juice
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