Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous

qbrozen · October 2021

I shot an email over to a jeep dealer to see if they are still taking 2021 orders. If the answer is yes, I’ll have to take a drive to carmax and then the dealer formally known as carsense. According to the latter’s assessment, $53k would be the MINIMUM offer and most likely quite a bit higher.

breld · October 2021

corvette said:

breld said:
By the way, the Land Rover dealer with the MINI offered $63k trade on the Model Y - we paid $50,290 for it last month (before taxes).
On the MINI? Or against how much over MSRP on a new LR?

Yeah, against the MINI. But to your point, Carvana seems to be offering similar Model Ys, albeit with somewhat higher miles, for mid-$60k’s. So the $63k trade may be a little inflated.

I still am waiting on quotes from Vroom and Carvana. And it’ll be interesting to see what the BMW dealer offers.

sda · October 2021

It is almost beyond comprehension that one can buy a new car and then turn around and sell it for significantly more than the purchase price, not to a private party but to a dealer who is going to sell it for even more $$.

nyccarguy · October 2021

conquest rebate of $2500 on top of that until Oct. 31st that includes your dead Audi,

This made me laugh

au1994 · October 2021

That seems to be a great deal on the Acura posted above.

@sda I cannot make the math work either. In previous times I saw very skinny deals (1k to the good or bad) to move something over the curb but nothing like this…+12k on the Tesla, +6k on the Jeep?

Lots of false economies being created in the car and housing markets.

28firefighter · October 2021

Conspiracy theory me thinks that this is going to be the new way. I think the days of instant gratification by going onto a dealer lot and driving home with a brand new car same day are waning. Therefore, there will be market for people who need a car, want it to be new, but can't get it fast enough and therefore willing to a pay a premium for one that someone ordered and decided to sell.

tjc78 · October 2021

@28firefighter said:
Conspiracy theory me thinks that this is going to be the new way. I think the days of instant gratification by going onto a dealer lot and driving home with a brand new car same day are waning. Therefore, there will be market for people who need a car, want it to be new, but can't get it fast enough and therefore willing to a pay a premium for one that someone ordered and decided to sell.

I just don’t see that being sustainable for the manufacturers or dealers. If that happens you could probably cut the dealer network in half.

Once the supply chain hangover is over things will return to normal and supplies will ramp up.

Fleet sales will return, which will start to flood the market with more used cars at reasonable prices, etc etc.

qbrozen · October 2021

@breld , maybe you shared and I forgot... how did you get a model Y for $50k? Is there a CO rebate baked in there?

28firefighter · October 2021

tjc78 said:

@28firefighter said:

Conspiracy theory me thinks that this is going to be the new way. I think the days of instant gratification by going onto a dealer lot and driving home with a brand new car same day are waning. Therefore, there will be market for people who need a car, want it to be new, but can't get it fast enough and therefore willing to a pay a premium for one that someone ordered and decided to sell.

I just don’t see that being sustainable for the manufacturers or dealers. If that happens you could probably cut the dealer network in half.

Once the supply chain hangover is over things will return to normal and supplies will ramp up.

Fleet sales will return, which will start to flood the market with more used cars at reasonable prices, etc etc.

Maybe. But, new car sales are a lost leader for many dealers anyway. I don't know that it would present the problem you think it would, at least not for the dealers. I think manufacturers will see value in a more controlled buying experience.

stickguy · October 2021

Companies need to keep producing though, especially with union contracts. And that depends on having dealers there to dump all the spec units on.

oldfarmer50 · October 2021

corvette said:
@oldfarmer50 - I think that's one of the unfortunate realities of the present market. If you have time to wait a couple months for a factory ordered Ford, you can get a fair discount. Possibly, if you can wait a year for the supply chains to stabilize, you may be able to walk into a dealer and buy one off the lot. But, if you need one right now, you're going to pay through the nose. I'm sure there is some wiggle room in the ADM, but not a tremendous amount, if there is truly no inventory on the lot. As I've said before, the cheapest Toyota dealer on the east coast is now charging over sticker, even on deals done through the broker that sends them a ton of business.

While I could probably afford to pay those crazy prices for immediate gratification, my persnickety nature won’t let me. That’s why I’m patiently waiting for a coworker to replace his pristine low mileage Ranger next year to upgrade my fleet.

I feel sorry for those folks who need a car for work right away and walk into that nightmare.

tifighter · October 2021

breld said:

Having said all that, the MINI was a really good example of the model, but during and after the test drive, it seems my wife feels she may prefer something that is a better blend of sport and comfort. All in all, she is anxious to get into something that feels more “personal” to her (the Tesla doesn’t cut it for her in that department).

When was the last time she drove a 3?

breld said:

By the way, the Land Rover dealer with the MINI offered $63k trade on the Model Y - we paid $50,290 for it last month (before taxes).

I don't need to know this information. Repeat, I do not need to know this information.

oldfarmer50 · October 2021

stickguy said:
my new BFF at the Honda dealer called again today with an update on the new Si. I am surprised they are that invested given how low inventories are to get some random guy locked into something coming in. But he said they found out they have 2 allocated for some point (end of the year he suspects). But not color options yet of pricing. So he is calling me back as soon as they get that detail. So I assume at that point I could claim dibs and pick a color on the one regular model (the other one will have the HPD package which I wouldn't pay extra for anyway).

no clue when they will have the pricing but should be fairly soon. I don't know why they don't just release everything at the same time.

I’m guessing that with no inventory to sell they have to look busy so why not make a bunch of phone calls regardless of potential to make a sale.

jmonroe1 · October 2021

roadburner said:

28firefighter said:

qbrozen said:
Mrs QB said I should take it, but pointed out my little one will be upset with me. She admitted she should have let me order another. Nothing I didn't already know. haha. She said I could just drive the "mazda" for the winter. Yes, she meant the Escape.
If I sold the Jeep right now I'm pretty sure my little one would need therapy. He sleeps with a mini Wrangler Rubicon diecast next to his bed.
My son had a Power Wheels Wrangler a few years before I bought the TJ; he's always liked Jeeps.

Yeah, go ahead and blame it on your kid. He had no help did he?

jmonroe

tjc78 · October 2021

@28firefighter said:
Maybe. But, new car sales are a lost leader for many dealers anyway. I don't know that it would present the problem you think it would, at least not for the dealers. I think manufacturers will see value in a more controlled buying experience.

Yeah, many new car sales are losers on the top line. However they bring trades, bank kick backs, service customers and tons of inside volume driven bonuses.

Also, without any in stock units they will lose their floor plan money which I’m sure helps with cash flow.

It’s my opinion that the dealers would be thrilled to be back to pre-Covid sales volumes even at the much lower margins.

sda · October 2021

For vehicles being sold over MSRP I am curious what type of down payment is required. I imagine financial lenders are cautious about future defaults as owners can’t afford or decide to cut loose.

28firefighter · October 2021

Depending on credit worthiness, some will do a 120% LTV ratio. That's why cars like the Dodge Journey, with tons of rebates historically, were great for burying negative equity.

breld · October 2021

qbrozen said:
@breld , maybe you shared and I forgot... how did you get a model Y for $50k? Is there a CO rebate baked in there?

Just lucked into it from a timing perspective. $50,290 (which includes their $1,200 "admin" fee or whatever they call it), was simply the price when we placed the order back in March and they don't adjust that order price based on delivery date. Since then, the price has gone up $8,000, and the delivery estimate is for next August. And we'll get a $2,500 tax credit for Colorado.

I did just get the buy estimate from Vroom, and it was "only" $58k, so it certainly does seem the trade offer from the Land Rover dealer (for the MINI) was inflated. I got a bid on the Polestar also, and was surprised it was only $2k less than the Tesla, at $56k. That's just a bit above the lease buyout.

benjaminh · October 2021

When I got the quote from that LA Acura dealer on their one base TLX they also gave me a quote on an almost fully loaded TLX Advance model. The Advance has all sorts of stuff you don't really need, but might be nice to have, such as a heated steering wheel, front windshield de-icer, 17 speaker 3D ELS sound system, 16-way power front seats, surround view camera, head up display, power folding side mirrors, wireless phone charger, ventilated front seats, wood trim, adjustable adaptive dampers, parking sensors, led ambient cabin lighting, heated rear seats, etc. They were offering 3k off of list on that one, compared to the 1.5k off on the base. That TLX Advance is almost a bargain at 44.3k, or with the loyalty/conquest rebate about 42 flat. As my wife and I once in a while say to each other—"the more you buy the more you save."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTTZC5xpkXs

oldfarmer50 · October 2021

"the more you buy the more you save."

stickguy · October 2021

analogous to the sales motto "we lose money on every sale, but will make it up on volume"

benjaminh · October 2021

After the shocking failure of the engine in the Audi owned by andres, I did think about the electric motors in Teslas, which are designed to last a million miles. The batteries might need replacement in 10-12 years, but the motors are designed to last an incredibly long time.

"In 2015, Musk said that they “want drive units that just never wear out”, resulting in Tesla changing their aim to one million miles in their endurance tests. “We are very happy with the quality of the drive unit. We changed the goal of the drive unit endurance from being approximately 200,000 miles to being a million miles – just basically we want drive units that just never wear out. That’s our goal. I think we made really good progress in that direction. the drive unit that are going out now and for the last several months have been excellent.”

https://electrek.co/2018/10/15/tesla-drive-after-million-miles-test/

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1051917544301285376?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1051917544301285376%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Felectrek.co%2F2018%2F10%2F15%2Ftesla-drive-after-million-miles-test%2F

benjaminh · October 2021

One extra cost that seems to go with owning a Tesla is that some are reporting a need for more frequent tire replacement, largely because of vehicle weight and the high torque. According to this Tesla owner....

"How Long Do Tesla Model 3 Tires really Last?...Under regular driving, 25,000 to 30,000 miles is an overall reasonable expectation. By driving gently on good roads and/or highways, some Tesla owners make their tires last over 40k miles, possibly up to 50k. Spirited drivers may expect their tires to last less than 25k miles....

And as crazy as this sounds, this is an improvement over previous Teslas. Take the Model S, for example. 1,000 pounds heavier — and with an even more powerful motor. Owners claim to have replaced their tires after as little as 10,000 miles. For context, that’s 10 months for the average American. 10 freakin’ months! That’s enough to offset any environmental or financial benefit of owning an electric vehicle.…"

https://teslatuneup.com/tesla-model-3-tire-wear/

stickguy · October 2021

Elon needs to hurry up and introduce that levitation drive system. Like a hovercraft.

stickguy · October 2021

In better late than never news, finally emailed my dealer to have him order me a hybrid Mav too. After seeing all the road test reviews, I’d prefer that one given the choice. Should just sneak in for a 2022 order. Might not get built until may, but I guess I can keep waiting!

Unless I do something else first of course.

tjc78 · October 2021

@benjaminh said:
When I got the quote from that LA Acura dealer on their one base TLX they also gave me a quote on an almost fully loaded TLX Advance model. The Advance has all sorts of stuff you don't really need, but might be nice to have, such as a heated steering wheel, front windshield de-icer, 17 speaker 3D ELS sound system, 16-way power front seats, surround view camera, head up display, power folding side mirrors, wireless phone charger, ventilated front seats, wood trim, adjustable adaptive dampers, parking sensors, led ambient cabin lighting, heated rear seats, etc. They were offering 3k off of list on that one, compared to the 1.5k off on the base. That TLX Advance is almost a bargain at 44.3k, or with the loyalty/conquest rebate about 42 flat. As my wife and I once in a while say to each other—"the more you buy the more you save."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTTZC5xpkXs

I’ve said it before here, but tue TLX is on the short list to replace the S60, provided they are available in August and the lease is somewhat appropriate to MSRP.

Not expecting a 1% deal, but not paying $750 a month either.

benjaminh · October 2021

stickguy said:
In better late than never news, finally emailed my dealer to have him order me a hybrid Mav too. After seeing all the road test reviews, I’d prefer that one given the choice. Should just sneak in for a 2022 order. Might not get built until may, but I guess I can keep waiting!

Unless I do something else first of course.

Good idea. Glad you got that order in! Did you go for the same color and options, or did you switch it up a little? Do you think you'll still pick up your 2.0T Maverick and drive it in the meantime?

au1994 · October 2021

Another sign of the times…The X1 needs to go to the dealer as it hesitates and now stalls when cold. Known issue with the cold spark advance and supposedly just a software flash. But, when making the appointment a loaner is not even an option. Drop off or wait, thats it. Now with no inventory it won’t even be fun to wander the lot. Guess I will have to sit there an work.

benjaminh · October 2021

au1994 said:
Another sign of the times…The X1 needs to go to the dealer as it hesitates and now stalls when cold. Known issue with the cold spark advance and supposedly just a software flash. But, when making the appointment a loaner is not even an option. Drop off or wait, thats it. Now with no inventory it won’t even be fun to wander the lot. Guess I will have to sit there an work.

How many miles on your X1 so far? I like the looks of those, and I imagine they are fun to drive. What kind of mpgs do you get?

benjaminh · October 2021

tjc78 said:
I’ve said it before here, but tue TLX is on the short list to replace the S60, provided they are available in August and the lease is somewhat appropriate to MSRP.

Not expecting a 1% deal, but not paying $750 a month either.

If the shortages get somewhat worked out, and inflation doesn't run out of control, that might be possible. But it seems like interest rates might start to rise at some point.

I'm planning on sticking with my last-gen TLX for maybe as long as ten years or so, but there's a certain appeal for me in the new top-of-the-line TLX. It seems like it's one of the last of the grand gas-powered and gadget laden sport-luxury cars. I imagine that Acura is already working on an all-EV replacement for the TLX that will probably be a bit more like the minimalist model 3, but maybe a bit larger. I guess we'll find out in four years or so.

tjc78 · October 2021

That’s why I like the TLX. Has all the tech but a bit old school. I’d grab another S60 but not happy they took away the T6 option.

tjc78 · October 2021

Ouch

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZM85Ujg8j/

stickguy · October 2021

tjc78 said:
That’s why I like the TLX. Has all the tech but a bit old school. I’d grab another S60 but not happy they took away the T6 option.

The new one is a spaceship compared to the prior model!

stickguy · October 2021

benjaminh said:

stickguy said:
In better late than never news, finally emailed my dealer to have him order me a hybrid Mav too. After seeing all the road test reviews, I’d prefer that one given the choice. Should just sneak in for a 2022 order. Might not get built until may, but I guess I can keep waiting!

Unless I do something else first of course.
Good idea. Glad you got that order in! Did you go for the same color and options, or did you switch it up a little? Do you think you'll still pick up your 2.0T Maverick and drive it in the meantime?

I need for him to confirm and supply the order number but I assume it will get in.

I shook it up a bit. Went to an XLT with luxury package. That’s probably the best bang for buck and will be very popular resale. As to the 2.0, will see what’s going on in a month or so when it in theory might show up.

au1994 · October 2021

tjc78 said:
Ouch

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZM85Ujg8j/

Jeez. Hope he stopped it before anything worse happened.

au1994 · October 2021

benjaminh said:

au1994 said:
Another sign of the times…The X1 needs to go to the dealer as it hesitates and now stalls when cold. Known issue with the cold spark advance and supposedly just a software flash. But, when making the appointment a loaner is not even an option. Drop off or wait, thats it. Now with no inventory it won’t even be fun to wander the lot. Guess I will have to sit there an work.
How many miles on your X1 so far? I like the looks of those, and I imagine they are fun to drive. What kind of mpgs do you get?

Its got 46k on it right now. Its pretty engaging to drive for what it is, plenty of power and handles pretty good for FWD, ours is not xDrive. It gets upper 20’s in town and over 30 on the highway.

We’ve just never really been enamored with it for whatever reason. It does everything well, hauls people and stuff comfortably, rides and drives good but is noisy. Getting rid of the OEM tires didn’t fix that. Of course the tech is getting dated. It doesn’t even have CarPlay. That didn’t arrive on the X1 till ‘18.

It would be gone if there was something to replace it with. I had an offer from one of the usual suspects for nearly 26k which I thought was pretty solid.

stickguy · October 2021

I test drive an X1 back before I got my tlx. Price was good, nice colors. I thought it was the one. But after I drove it, was underwhelmed. Didn’t like the drive (which surprised me), and it was outdated on features. I liked the 330 much more.

au1994 · October 2021

I did some preliminary scouting and the dealer has a couple of nice 330i’s but she prefers an SUV. They do have 2 X4’s but just ho hum color combo black over beige.

I’m going to try to steer the convo to Acura. I think the RDX could be a fit.

oldfarmer50 · October 2021

benjaminh said:
One extra cost that seems to go with owning a Tesla is that some are reporting a need for more frequent tire replacement, largely because of vehicle weight and the high torque. According to this Tesla owner....

"How Long Do Tesla Model 3 Tires really Last?...Under regular driving, 25,000 to 30,000 miles is an overall reasonable expectation. By driving gently on good roads and/or highways, some Tesla owners make their tires last over 40k miles, possibly up to 50k. Spirited drivers may expect their tires to last less than 25k miles....

And as crazy as this sounds, this is an improvement over previous Teslas. Take the Model S, for example. 1,000 pounds heavier — and with an even more powerful motor. Owners claim to have replaced their tires after as little as 10,000 miles. For context, that’s 10 months for the average American. 10 freakin’ months! That’s enough to offset any environmental or financial benefit of owning an electric vehicle.…"

https://teslatuneup.com/tesla-model-3-tire-wear/

I know that on any FWD EV frequent front tire replacement would be assumed. On the company Kona EVs it’s very easy to spin the wheels every time you accelerate. As near as I can tell it’s not a limited slip differential so one tire will just burn rubber all day long.

Are the Tesla’s AWD? The Kona should be.

oldfarmer50 · October 2021

tjc78 said:
Ouch

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZM85Ujg8j/

What the heck is that, water pump?

stickguy · October 2021

Either that or part of the turbo.

au1994 · October 2021

oldfarmer50 said:

tjc78 said:
Ouch

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZM85Ujg8j/

What the heck is that, water pump?

Yes, water pump I believe.

tjc78 · October 2021

Pretty sure it’s the water pump.

mjfloyd1 · October 2021

That hood will buff right out. All he will need is a few dabs of JB Weld and call it good

qbrozen · October 2021

The part that shot through the hood was the fan

jmonroe1 · October 2021

@mjfloyd1 said:
That hood will buff right out. All he will need is a few dabs of JB Weld and call it good

Don’t tell us. Try to convince @ab348 about that.

jmonroe

jmonroe1 · October 2021

@qbrozen said:
The part that shot through the hood was the fan

You almost have to try to do that. Like ignoring noise for a while coming from under the hood.

jmonroe

andres3 · October 2021

A colleague of mine at work just got a 335d for like $18K with 52K miles. Seems like a deal and the great mileage would be great right now. Of course, he admitted it had been crashed twice, front and back, but repaired by a "BMW body shop." If you can overlook fit and finish issues from CA body shops seems like a bargain though in this market.

Are the BMW diesels problematic for reliability?

andres3 · October 2021

nyccarguy said:
conquest rebate of $2500 on top of that until Oct. 31st that includes your dead Audi,

This made me laugh

I still have one "live" Audi, and that one is a 2016 with 51,000 miles. I'm in the danger zone for both age and mileage now.

explorerx4 · October 2021

Good start on a ram air system.

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