Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous

rayainsw · September 2022

About to start my long drive [ 1,200+ miles ] back to Georgia.
I really do appreciate the longs legs & excellent comfort of
the M340i.
- Ray
It even manages over 35MPG on the highway!

qbrozen · September 2022

Maybe I have to be clearer when referring to cars I'll resell vs ones for myself. Although, technically, they are ALL for resale. haha.
But that BE-1 is specifically to sell. I have no use for it.
Speaking of imports, my Pajero has been sitting at port for a week now. I can't get anybody to go pick it up. The hitch for the Benz is supposed to arrive tomorrow, so, if that happens, looks like I'll have to go fetch the Mitsu my-damned-self on Monday. Sigh.

Michaell · September 2022

qbrozen said:
Maybe I have to be clearer when referring to cars I'll resell vs ones for myself. Although, technically, they are ALL for resale. haha.
But that BE-1 is specifically to sell. I have no use for it.
Speaking of imports, my Pajero has been sitting at port for a week now. I can't get anybody to go pick it up. The hitch for the Benz is supposed to arrive tomorrow, so, if that happens, looks like I'll have to go fetch the Mitsu my-damned-self on Monday. Sigh.

Isn't it fun owning your own business?

qbrozen · September 2022

Wish I had a business so I could focus on it. Still have not found a location.

henryn · September 2022

stickguy said:
Losing a large sales tax credit which will likely eat up much if the savings.

Maybe, maybe not. It's rather difficult trying to guess what the actual numbers will turn out to be. In my case, I would have been better off selling my trade in at the "high point". I had an offer from Carvana, 6 months ago, for $15.2k. Their latest offer is $12.1, a decline of $3.1k. If I traded it in for $12k, I would save about $750 in sales tax (6.25% here) versus getting $3,100 more from selling it to Carvana 6 months ago.

You just don't know, you have to take your best guess and go from there.

In my case, I have a fairly good idea of the solid underlying value of of my old truck, which should be about $10k. I don't think, barring unforeseen circumstances, that the value will fall lower than that anytime in the next couple of years. Thus the most I'm likely to lose by sitting on it is $2k, and it's worth that to me having it around in the interim.

Do you have any idea of the solid underlying value of your old Mustang? Versus what you could get from Carvana or the like, right now, today? I think that should be the starting point for your computations.

ab348 · September 2022

I get the issue of losing the tax credit if you sell instead of trade, but would a dealer be willing to take your trade right now and keep that on the books in your favor until your ordered car arrives? They can sell the trade-in right now so it should not be a big deal for them, if you can trust them.

andres3 · September 2022

I live in a State that doesn't believe in sales tax refunds/credits, nor registration/licensing credits/refunds.

kyfdx · September 2022

rayainsw said:
About to start my long drive [ 1,200+ miles ] back to Georgia.
I really do appreciate the longs legs & excellent comfort of
the M340i.
- Ray
It even manages over 35MPG on the highway!

From Maine? How long have you been there?

rayainsw · September 2022

[[ From Maine? How long have you been there? ]]
Here for just over 4 months.
- Ray
2 11 hr drive days, each way

jmonroe1 · September 2022

henryn said:

stickguy said:
Losing a large sales tax credit which will likely eat up much if the savings.
Maybe, maybe not. It's rather difficult trying to guess what the actual numbers will turn out to be. In my case, I would have been better off selling my trade in at the "high point". I had an offer from Carvana, 6 months ago, for $15.2k. Their latest offer is $12.1, a decline of $3.1k. If I traded it in for $12k, I would save about $750 in sales tax (6.25% here) versus getting $3,100 more from selling it to Carvana 6 months ago.

You just don't know, you have to take your best guess and go from there.

In my case, I have a fairly good idea of the solid underlying value of of my old truck, which should be about $10k. I don't think, barring unforeseen circumstances, that the value will fall lower than that anytime in the next couple of years. Thus the most I'm likely to lose by sitting on it is $2k, and it's worth that to me having it around in the interim.

Do you have any idea of the solid underlying value of your old Mustang? Versus what you could get from Carvana or the like, right now, today? I think that should be the starting point for your computations.

————————————————
I’m almost afraid to say this because it will sound like a lot of bull but it’s true:

In May of 2019 I was all set to by a 2019 Subie Legacy Limited in burgundy over beige to replace Mrs. j’s 2012 Subie Legacy Limited with less than 30K miles in silver over black just because I wanted the color combo of the 2019.

The dealer was in Holidaysburg PA (in @venture’s neck of the woods) a little over 100 miles from my hood. When Son #1 heard this he went looking in my area and found the identical car but it was a used 2018 with just a tick over 7K miles at a local reputable used car lot. I called to arrange a test drive, liked it then sat down at the negotiating table. The dealer held firm to his price, which was really pretty good, but he was 500 bucks less than I wanted for Mrs. j Subie. As I’m at the table my Son called and told me he got a price from Carvana for his Mother’s Subie that turned out to be a little more than $2200 compared to what the owner of the place wanted to give me. I told the salesman what I heard and he was doubtful, just as I was, about the offer but it prompted him to go talk to the owner to see if he could get me more for my trade but like I said the owner dug in, so I left.

2 days later I sold the car to Carvana and the difference was still good enough to beat the tax credit even if I bought the new 2019 so it would surely beat the hell out of the tax credit if I could buy the 2018, if it was still available.

I called and found out the 2018 was still available so I told them I’d buy it. When we’re doing the paper work the salesman couldn’t believe I actually got that much more for my trade.

The funny part about this is he said there was no way my trade was leaving their lot and he was kicking himself because he knew he could sell it in no time but the owner screwed him out of another sale (his words).

Don’t ask me how Carvana could give me that much more for my trade but I’m happy that they did.

jmonroe

andres3 · September 2022

Best way for a billionaire to make the world a better place by giving away 10 Billion $$$:

Offer to up/beat everyone's VROOM/CARMAX/CARVANA (they are out of money though) offer by $10,000, first 1,000,000 applicants. That's 1 Million happy people for a happier world.

xwesx · September 2022

rayainsw said:
[[ From Maine? How long have you been there? ]]
Here for just over 4 months.
- Ray
2 11 hr drive days, each way

Sounds pretty tame, Ray! Just long enough to get enjoyment out of the drive without it wearing you down.

We begin the journey back to Alaska in about 12 days....

sda · September 2022

xwesx said:

rayainsw said:
[[ From Maine? How long have you been there? ]]
Here for just over 4 months.
- Ray
2 11 hr drive days, each way
Sounds pretty tame, Ray! Just long enough to get enjoyment out of the drive without it wearing you down.

We begin the journey back to Alaska in about 12 days....

How many in tow? Q7, your son’s new to him Subie? Rotation of drivers? I love driving but wow! Safe travels!

xwesx · September 2022

sda said:

How many in tow? Q7, your son’s new to him Subie? Rotation of drivers? I love driving but wow! Safe travels!

A verifiable caravan this time! Q7, Crosstrek, and my son's Forester. It's ridiculous. I hope that we can be in one vehicle next year! So, one driver per vehicle. My wife is planning on somewhat shorter driving days, as she's not typically cut out for more than 8-9 hours of driving.

oldfarmer50 · September 2022

stickguy said:
Losing a large sales tax credit which will likely eat up much if the savings.

That’s certainly something to consider. The sales tax here is 8% but what if the shortage resolves and your trade-in is worth 15% less? There’s also normal depreciation to consider even in this market.

oldfarmer50 · September 2022

henryn said:

stickguy said:
Losing a large sales tax credit which will likely eat up much if the savings.
Maybe, maybe not. It's rather difficult trying to guess what the actual numbers will turn out to be. In my case, I would have been better off selling my trade in at the "high point". I had an offer from Carvana, 6 months ago, for $15.2k. Their latest offer is $12.1, a decline of $3.1k. If I traded it in for $12k, I would save about $750 in sales tax (6.25% here) versus getting $3,100 more from selling it to Carvana 6 months ago.

You just don't know, you have to take your best guess and go from there.

In my case, I have a fairly good idea of the solid underlying value of of my old truck, which should be about $10k. I don't think, barring unforeseen circumstances, that the value will fall lower than that anytime in the next couple of years. Thus the most I'm likely to lose by sitting on it is $2k, and it's worth that to me having it around in the interim.

Do you have any idea of the solid underlying value of your old Mustang? Versus what you could get from Carvana or the like, right now, today? I think that should be the starting point for your computations.

Today I was next to an older F-150 (tenth generation) the rounded front from 1997-2004 and was impressed that it had no rust. As it pulled away it had a dealer sticker from Waco TX.

On my Mustang Carvana offered $30,500 last summer so I’d guess maybe $25k still. So it might be worth half the price of a new one if I sold it now.

That’s assuming that dealers don’t slap a $15k ADM on them.

oldfarmer50 · September 2022

sda said:

xwesx said:

rayainsw said:
[[ From Maine? How long have you been there? ]]
Here for just over 4 months.
- Ray
2 11 hr drive days, each way
Sounds pretty tame, Ray! Just long enough to get enjoyment out of the drive without it wearing you down.

We begin the journey back to Alaska in about 12 days....
How many in tow? Q7, your son’s new to him Subie? Rotation of drivers? I love driving but wow! Safe travels!

One of our more elderly drivers (82) made the trip from NY to Alaska twice a few years ago. So he was probably in his late 70s at the time.

Just for fun with his wife to see the sights.

henryn · September 2022

oldfarmer50 said:

henryn said:

stickguy said:
Losing a large sales tax credit which will likely eat up much if the savings.
Maybe, maybe not. It's rather difficult trying to guess what the actual numbers will turn out to be. In my case, I would have been better off selling my trade in at the "high point". I had an offer from Carvana, 6 months ago, for $15.2k. Their latest offer is $12.1, a decline of $3.1k. If I traded it in for $12k, I would save about $750 in sales tax (6.25% here) versus getting $3,100 more from selling it to Carvana 6 months ago.

You just don't know, you have to take your best guess and go from there.

In my case, I have a fairly good idea of the solid underlying value of of my old truck, which should be about $10k. I don't think, barring unforeseen circumstances, that the value will fall lower than that anytime in the next couple of years. Thus the most I'm likely to lose by sitting on it is $2k, and it's worth that to me having it around in the interim.

Do you have any idea of the solid underlying value of your old Mustang? Versus what you could get from Carvana or the like, right now, today? I think that should be the starting point for your computations.
Today I was next to an older F-150 (tenth generation) the rounded front from 1997-2004 and was impressed that it had no rust. As it pulled away it had a dealer sticker from Waco TX.

On my Mustang Carvana offered $30,500 last summer so I’d guess maybe $25k still. So it might be worth half the price of a new one if I sold it now.

That’s assuming that dealers don’t slap a $15 ADM on them.

Don't guess, go online and spend a few minutes finding out what you can get right now for your old Mustang. Then do some serious thinking about what it might be worth in a year or so if (big if) things return to normal. Say you can get $25k right now, this minute, and a year from now maybe only $18k (just a wild guess, no idea really). That's a difference of $7k. If things have reverted to a more normal state, and you can get a discount on the new Mustang, will it be that much of a discount ($7k)? How much off MSRP did you get when you bought that last Mustang? In 2018, I bought a new F150 for about $10k under MSRP (half in factory incentives, half in dealer discount).

There are those who say those days are gone, never to return. I don't claim to have a crystal ball, I am just hopeful those days MIGHT return.

ronsteve · September 2022

@oldfarmer50 said:
That’s certainly something to consider. The sales tax here is 8% but what if the shortage resolves and your trade-in is worth 15% less? There’s also normal depreciation to consider even in this market.

If you’re looking to trade on another pre-owned vehicle, then what you’re buying will be lower as well, so the delta is probably similar. OTOH if you’re buying new, then you’re kinda screwed if the used market normalizes.

stickguy · September 2022

Farmer, are you looking at a leftover current model, or the new design they just released? When is that even coming out? and being Ford, assume they will be in short supply for quite a while (and the rollout will be a debacle).

and for what you use the car for, do you really think it will offer a real benefit over your current one? at least enough to be worth the money (I assume 30K at least?)

Sandman6472 · September 2022

Finally got evaluated this afternoon & seems the vertigo from spring has returned once again. Started feeling slightly dizzy 10 nights ago and last Friday, had to lie down in the back of the van as the world was spinning. Did work Saturday and as of Sunday morning, have been in & out of bed with no work at all. Am very pissed off as to why it's come back again for a third time in just about 2 years now. Had to cancel my going to Orlando tomorrow for a few days as I'd have to drive back alone & that's not safe. Drove to the hospital for the first time today since seeing the pain doctor on Monday. And after the evaluation, had to sit in the outer office for a good hour because the world was spinning & they refused to let me leave till it stopped.
The wife & middle child are leaving in the morning for a week but they've left me enough vittles to get me through Tuesday at best. Figure I'll be starting therapy on Monday, so I can stop at the store & re-stock the pantry till they return home. And honestly don't think I'll be returning to work for at least another week or so. It's not safe for me to be behind the wheel & I would never put others in danger anyways, I'm not that type of person. As much as I like the job, and making some extra $, won't be stupid here as things could turn out very badly. So, guess I'm honkerring down at home for the next few days at least.
Am not a happy camper at this moment so kinda glad I'll be alone for the next many days.

oldfarmer50 · September 2022

stickguy said:
Farmer, are you looking at a leftover current model, or the new design they just released? When is that even coming out? and being Ford, assume they will be in short supply for quite a while (and the rollout will be a debacle).

and for what you use the car for, do you really think it will offer a real benefit over your current one? at least enough to be worth the money (I assume 30K at least?)

This would definitely be the redesigned model coming out in 2024.

No sense getting a 2022 since they cut the horsepower to 450 to meet emissions (less than my current model). The new one is rumored to have 500. Asking if buying cars makes any sense makes me wonder what you’ve done with the real stickguy.

At this point it’s just a fantasy but it would give me the opportunity to option it just the way I want.

oldfarmer50 · September 2022

Sandman6472 said:
Finally got evaluated this afternoon & seems the vertigo from spring has returned once again. Started feeling slightly dizzy 10 nights ago and last Friday, had to lie down in the back of the van as the world was spinning. Did work Saturday and as of Sunday morning, have been in & out of bed with no work at all. Am very pissed off as to why it's come back again for a third time in just about 2 years now. Had to cancel my going to Orlando tomorrow for a few days as I'd have to drive back alone & that's not safe. Drove to the hospital for the first time today since seeing the pain doctor on Monday. And after the evaluation, had to sit in the outer office for a good hour because the world was spinning & they refused to let me leave till it stopped.
The wife & middle child are leaving in the morning for a week but they've left me enough vittles to get me through Tuesday at best. Figure I'll be starting therapy on Monday, so I can stop at the store & re-stock the pantry till they return home. And honestly don't think I'll be returning to work for at least another week or so. It's not safe for me to be behind the wheel & I would never put others in danger anyways, I'm not that type of person. As much as I like the job, and making some extra $, won't be stupid here as things could turn out very badly. So, guess I'm honkerring down at home for the next few days at least.
Am not a happy camper at this moment so kinda glad I'll be alone for the next many days.

Sorry to hear that. Hopefully the therapy will give you some relief.

stickguy · September 2022

so seems like MY 2023 in Maverick land might be nuttier that 2022. I did get my order sheet from the dealer on my reorder (for the 2022 that did not get built) and confirm from Ford. But, he just put in as an XLT (like my prior order) not the Lariat that I actually want. Still, at least I have skin in the game! I did ask him to change it so I assume that is doable still. Though in this crazy market the XLT is probably a money making flip ready to happen!

the real crazy part though. On the forums all kind of reports of the order system crashing and dealers being overwhelmed with new orders (and some having to put in 2022 carry overs, though not every dealer even had those). And late yesterday a memo came out from Ford (to dealers) that due to excessive demand, they were closing order banks early again. Early in this came, being next week (and potentially early in that!). so it is possible that by Monday or Tuesday, they will have taken all the customer orders they are going to take for 2023 (possible it reopens down the road, but no guarantees).

Also noted that once all the customer orders are filled, they will finish production for the year with dealer stock units.

so piecing it all together (and based on explanations in the Email) it sounds like they want to get orders built in a more reasonable timeframe and not have angry customers 9 months into the model year still waiting to be scheduled. so only going to take orders they can build in some shorter time (3? 6? months). Which if it works is probably a good idea.

I am very curious now to see when (or if of course) my 2023 order finally gets built. And hopefully the dealer can get it adjusted to how I want it.

stickguy · September 2022

Sandy, I hope they can get something worked out to fix your vertigo. I seem to recall the therapy last time was effective? It does sound like a nasty thing to have to deal with.

stickguy · September 2022

oldfarmer50 said:

stickguy said:
Farmer, are you looking at a leftover current model, or the new design they just released? When is that even coming out? and being Ford, assume they will be in short supply for quite a while (and the rollout will be a debacle).

and for what you use the car for, do you really think it will offer a real benefit over your current one? at least enough to be worth the money (I assume 30K at least?)
This would definitely be the redesigned model coming out in 2024.

No sense getting a 2022 since they cut the horsepower to 450 to meet emissions (less than my current model). The new one is rumored to have 500. Asking if buying cars makes any sense makes me wonder what you’ve done with the real stickguy.

At this point it’s just a fantasy but it would give me the opportunity to option it just the way I want.

2024 model year, but did they announce when they are going to start building (or try to)? I assume 1st or 2nd quarter based on the usual lead time from a reveal.

graphicguy · September 2022

ab348 said:

ronsteve said:

A TLX might be tempting if I get the $9k that Carvana put on the 13 Jetta but I know my better half would never agree to cat vomit gold.

Huh, that’s one of the few colors I would like. Beats black, gray, silver and white for me.

There’s always RED!!!!!

qbrozen · September 2022

The ‘24 Ford Camar-stang, huh? Interesting choice.

ab348 · September 2022

Everything you wanted to know about the new Civic Type R. Those red seats are... red!

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/2023-honda-civic-type-r-us-specs-features-debut

stickguy · September 2022

I got jonesing on the regular Si (I would never go all the way up to an R). Maybe a good thing they are in very short supply up here. won't be tempted!

laurasdada · September 2022

Safe travels, Ray. We're heading to coastal Maine next week; hope you cleaned it up before you left.
Sandy, good luck from a fellow former Westporter/Boca'er...

carnaught · September 2022

Since I bought my two new cars I am still getting almost a call per day from other dealers I had communicated with in the process. The dealers seem to be better stocked now and the ADM’s and/or add-ons sound like they are more negotiable. My impression is that the madness seems to be calming.

oldfarmer50 · September 2022

stickguy said:

oldfarmer50 said:

stickguy said:
Farmer, are you looking at a leftover current model, or the new design they just released? When is that even coming out? and being Ford, assume they will be in short supply for quite a while (and the rollout will be a debacle).

and for what you use the car for, do you really think it will offer a real benefit over your current one? at least enough to be worth the money (I assume 30K at least?)
This would definitely be the redesigned model coming out in 2024.

No sense getting a 2022 since they cut the horsepower to 450 to meet emissions (less than my current model). The new one is rumored to have 500. Asking if buying cars makes any sense makes me wonder what you’ve done with the real stickguy.

At this point it’s just a fantasy but it would give me the opportunity to option it just the way I want.

2024 model year, but did they announce when they are going to start building (or try to)? I assume 1st or 2nd quarter based on the usual lead time from a reveal.

I asked a dealer and he said orders would start in summer of 2023 but if it goes like the Maverick fiasco who know when I’d actually get it.

Maybe I could drive it to my nursing home or be buried in it.😃

oldfarmer50 · September 2022

qbrozen said:
The ‘24 Ford Camar-stang, huh? Interesting choice.

I thought it was just me who saw the resemblance.

tjc78 · September 2022

The Camaro’s roof line doesn’t have as steep a rake as the new Stang. IMO this is what happens when you retro style a car. There is only so much you can do to it without ruining the design.

corvette · September 2022

2023 Maverick order bank closing sometime next week due to unprecedented demand, and they intend to offer no support for any 2023 orders which don't get built, so pick and choose your constraint items carefully, I guess. The remainder of 2023 builds will be for dealer stock. I hastily sent out a feeler to Chapman of Horsham about ordering an XLT Hybrid with CP360.

stickguy · September 2022

the first point should eliminate the need for the 2nd. Basically they are closing way early so they can fill orders in a reasonable timeframe (in theory). so instead of taking what they anticipate to be 11 months of orders, take more like 5-6 and shut it down. As long as the rollover orders all get in, and priority, all good.

if they get them produced quickly, will either open the banks back up or just crank out inventory units for the dealer. either is better than taking extra orders again and coming out the gate with people being a lock to wait 10 months.

stickguy · September 2022

one wrinkle with the Maverick orders which screws things up for a lot of people (and not what Ford anticipated). There are a lot of people (at least the ones active on the forums) that are putting in orders at as many dealers as possible, and not planning to buy them all. Which just shafts other people that want to order one because the queue is full. Then eventually the trucks all show up and the dealer gets a bunch of inventory to add ADM stickers to!

Michaell · September 2022

stickguy said:
one wrinkle with the Maverick orders which screws things up for a lot of people (and not what Ford anticipated). There are a lot of people (at least the ones active on the forums) that are putting in orders at as many dealers as possible, and not planning to buy them all. Which just shafts other people that want to order one because the queue is full. Then eventually the trucks all show up and the dealer gets a bunch of inventory to add ADM stickers to!

Seeing similar actions with the ID.4 - the folks who have 2022's on order are simply going in and ordering a 2023 model. Now that the 2022 doesn't get the tax credit, dealers will likely be stuck with a lot of inventory that won't move. Some are still trying ADMs - someone reported a $16K ADM just this last week.

oldfarmer50 · September 2022

stickguy said:
one wrinkle with the Maverick orders which screws things up for a lot of people (and not what Ford anticipated). There are a lot of people (at least the ones active on the forums) that are putting in orders at as many dealers as possible, and not planning to buy them all. Which just shafts other people that want to order one because the queue is full. Then eventually the trucks all show up and the dealer gets a bunch of inventory to add ADM stickers to!

One of the guys at work got a Maverick because of something like that. Someone had ordered one, put down a deposit and then immediately tried to flip it before it was even delivered. The dealer caught wind of this and canceled the order. They then took delivery, slapped a $2k ADM on it and sold it themselves.

stickguy · September 2022

so hypocritical too!

ronsteve · September 2022

Who was it that had a TLX with the 2.4? What did you think of it?

I keep seeing a couple in my FB feed that start to seem like appealing replacements as the value of the wife’s 13 Jetta continues to skyrocket! And given that I have probably put at least half the miles on the Jetta since Covid hit, I might be an easy sell… not sure about my better half tho.

28firefighter · September 2022

@ronsteve said:
Who was it that had a TLX with the 2.4? What did you think of it?

I keep seeing a couple in my FB feed that start to seem like appealing replacements as the value of the wife’s 13 Jetta continues to skyrocket! And given that I have probably put at least half the miles on the Jetta since Covid hit, I might be an easy sell… not sure about my better half tho.

@stickguy did and someone else who I’m completely blanking on still has one.

stickguy · September 2022

one of the PA guys still does.

I loved it. fantastic car. I actually regret selling it, though it made sense at the time. If I had not unloaded it on carvana I definitely would have bought out at the end of the lease and kept it a long time.

great drivetrain. pretty quick, very smooth, and got great MPG for a large car. and no turbos or modern stuff to worry about. Reliable and comfortable too. Mine was an A Spec so even better. Just make sure to get at least a tech package car (A Spec includes the tech package).

if you find a clean one at a decent price I would not hesitate to grab it and keep it for a lot of year.

sda · September 2022

@benjaminh still has a TLX 2.4 as far as I know.

corvette · September 2022

Kind of ironic that the Maverick was supposed to be one of Ford's test products for moving towards a customer order-centric or order-only model, and its popularity ended up killing that off, at least for now.

stickguy · September 2022

the model is fine, but only in a normal market when they have enough capacity to make what they they need when it is needed. and for cars that are not absurdly popular.

Michaell · September 2022

Member needs help with buying an unregistered car

ab348 · September 2022

One would think that if Ford was producing Mavericks in any volume over the last few months that there would be sightings of them as they reached buyers, but that still seems to be a very rare thing. Are they actually making very many?

graphicguy · September 2022

ab348 said:
Everything you wanted to know about the new Civic Type R. Those red seats are... red!

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/2023-honda-civic-type-r-us-specs-features-debut

What’s not to like?

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