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Comments

  • ljflxljflx Posts: 4,690
    Designman - I have it on my pretty good authority that the real car will be 95-99% of what you see. Supposedly a slight tweak of the headlights and the grill but that's it. I think the rear is a combo of ES and GS. There is one picture I've seen - and it's the worst one in that light blue color - that gives it a bit of a 5-series look, mainly because of the tail lights. But this car is not disjointed looking like the 5-series and to me looks massive and graceful at the same time. As well if you look closely at the RX and ES you'll note that both incorporated some concepts of the L-finesse styling long before the GS and IS came out.
  • designmandesignman Posts: 2,129
    …I cant see any resemblance whatsoever between a Lexus ES and a BMW 5.

    Dewey, I agree, but there is irony because LF-Sh bears resemblance to both ES and 5

    There is one picture I've seen - and it's the worst one in that light blue color - that gives it a bit of a 5-series look, mainly because of the tail lights. But this car is not disjointed looking like the 5-series and to me looks massive and graceful at the same time.

    Ljflx… yes, I agree somewhat, but not on account of the taillights. The forms in profile are similar but the LF-Sh is graceful as you say. Those front three-quarter angles showing the bonnet, fenders, lamps and grille as shown above are spectacular in my opinion. There is a lot of harmony. The 5 is discordant and stubby, the contours and lines of the LF-Sh are elegant and flowing… like the flow in the dynaflow… heh, heh ;-)

    Supposedly a slight tweak of the headlights and the grill but that's it.

    Figures. It's the front end that has the personality and they'll probably mess with it.

    Stay tuned, pix coming up…
  • ljflxljflx Posts: 4,690
    Designman - the grille tweak is supposedly on the gas car, not on the hybrid. The stance and look of the front is supposedly what you'll see on the car. From what I was told the bulb treatrment in the headlights is what will change, not the styling of them. They seem to know they have a winning style with this car.
  • designmandesignman Posts: 2,129
    image

    The quality of these photos isn’t particularly good, but we need to look at the cars at the same angle to compare properly.

    The following are what I don’t about the BMW:

    1 – Shape of the lamps at both ends.
    2 – The kink in the C-column
    3 – The snubby kitty-cat nose
    4 – Every element begs for attention, working independently, fighting each other

    Some things I like about the LF-Sh in addition to what I mentioned in previous post:

    1 – Kink in the C-column
    2 – Doorhandles
    3 – Surface contours all around… Intriguing swales and knolls.
    4 – No single element begs for attention, they work together.

    By the way, yes, the LF-Sh is stark in profile but I find the contours of the side expanse as interesting as a rolling sea. And once it starts to rotate into three-quarter views, that’s where the music starts. As a music composer uses melody, contrast, harmony and rhythm to color his work, I find this design to have much variety and fine transition between elements.

    image

    Here go your Toyota/Lexus genes. The shape of those lamps yield the same impression IMO.
  • hpowdershpowders Posts: 4,322
    see the typically conservative LS customer base going for that re-styling.
    I believe it will send more of those folks to MB, IMO.
    We'll see.

    Keeping the musical analogies alive, this new LS looks distinctly cacophonous to me.
    I'll keep my Bangle-inspired 5 series.
  • ljflxljflx Posts: 4,690
    "Every element begs for attention, working independently, fighting each other"

    Great line re the 5-series. I parked next to one a few days ago and looked at it very closely. Individually there are some beautiful styling parts of the car. But they fight each other rather than work with each other and it ends up looking like an ueven solved jigsaw puzzle, albeit with beautiful components. A simple case of too many cooks in the kitchen. Bring on the chef of the future.

    Hpowders - I doubt that new LS loses a customer because of its style change. I'll also bet it gains plenty of euro buyers.
  • hpowdershpowders Posts: 4,322
    Quite a few people in my community drive the LS, and a few drive the S class.
    I know these are very conservative people.
    I can't speak for Europeans or the country as a whole, but if the LS styling looks a little too "brash", I can see some of these Lexus folks switching to the S.
    Of course, this a megatrend does not make and I could also be wrong.

    One thing I do know. Judging from the complete lack of ingenuity in the 5 series cup-holder design, I can safely extrapolate that somewhere in the future, it will inevitably be Lexus and not BMW who will be able to proudly claim for its vehicles that in addition to everything else that they do so well, they will indeed be able to core a apple.
  • designmandesignman Posts: 2,129
    You know, all of these years Lexus fans have been asking, when are we gonna get great styling, when is my ship gonna come in? Well, here it is, the Queen Mary!

    ;-)
  • jjacurajjacura Posts: 808
    Nice job on the posts.

    I look forward to seeing the car in person.

    Designman....as a side note I wanted to ask you a couple of questions through e-mail but don't want to publish my e-mail address in the forum. Maybe our host can help me out. Is that all right with you?
  • nvbankernvbanker Posts: 7,285
    "see the typically conservative LS customer base going for that re-styling.
    I believe it will send more of those folks to MB, IMO."

    I'm one of those typically conservative LS drivers, who may be all over this re-styling - IF it's as good in the metal as it looks, and IF the interior is equally appealing and functional.
  • designmandesignman Posts: 2,129
    JJ, check your e-mail.
  • hpowdershpowders Posts: 4,322
    Like I said. I could be wrong. It's been known to happen.
  • lexusguylexusguy Posts: 6,419
    I dont see typical LS owners abandoning the car because it finally looks interesting. I dont think that most owners bought the car because it looks like old dishwater, and that somehow appeals to them. I think they bought because of the car's strengths, its reliability, ease of use, and cost advantage. The new S has yet to prove that its either reliable or easy to interface with, and the LS will continue to have a significant cost advantage.

    Most owners of last gen BMW 5s and 7s dont seem to have any problem sticking with BMW, despite the new styling there, either.
  • hpowdershpowders Posts: 4,322
    Yes. I didn't take into account the strong brand loyalty a car like the LS has.

    The 2007 LS could indeed be a megahit.

    I am looking forward to seeing it in the showroom next fall and taking it for a spin.

    Until then I will have to be content with our strategically placed reporters' impressions at the January Auto Show as well as any photos that appear in the auto mags.
  • garyh1garyh1 DC metroPosts: 394
    You know, all of these years Lexus fans have been asking, when are we gonna get great styling, when is my ship gonna come in? Well, here it is, the Queen Mary!

    Looks like the exterior styling of the next LS will be a big hit, and I don't mind assuming at this point that the interior will be nice as well. That leaves "handling" as the remaining area of previous criticism to be addressed.

    Do we have any reason to believe that Lexus will be able to accomplish anything in this area that will satisfy both its current aficionados and its critics (if that is even possible)? I have to say that the response to the redone GS certainly doesn't augur well in that regard.
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,251
    ALG 2006 Residual Value Awards Press Release

    ALG

    BMW is number one again in the luxury brand segment.

    Honda is the number one non-luxury brand.
  • bdr127bdr127 Posts: 950
    Also note that BMW is #1 for all brands... even higher than Honda.

    For all the BMW "haters", this has nothing to do with the "lease subsidizing".... This is straight from THE leasing source, ALG.
  • bdr127bdr127 Posts: 950
    Thought I'd add more ALG residual values detail:

    ALG's 2006 Vehicle 36mo Residuals

    Luxury Brands:
    1) BMW - 53.6
    2) Lexus - 52.5
    3) Land Rover - 51.2
    4) Mercedes - 50.8
    5) Acura - 50.4
    6) Infiniti - 50.0
    7) Audi - 48.7
    8) Cadillac - 47.8
    9) Volvo - 44.9
    10) Saab - 43.8
    11) Lincoln - 40.2
    12) Jaguar - 38.1
    Industry Average - 49.4

    Non-Luxury Brands:
    1) Honda - 53.0
    2) Toyota - 51.8
    3) Volkswagen - 50.6
    4) Subaru - 50.5
    5) Nissan - 48.6
    6) Jeep - 46.8
    7) Mazda - 46.5
    8) Saturn - 44.6
    9) GMC - 44.6
    10) Chrysler - 43.3
    11) Hyundai - 42.9
    12) Pontiac - 42.1
    13) Ford - 41.8
    14) Chevrolet - 41.7
    15) Mitsubishi - 41.5
    16) Mercury - 41.4
    17) Dodge - 40.0
    18) Suzuki - 38.2
    19) Kia - 38.1
    20) Buick - 37.9
    Industry Average - 44.5
  • bdr127bdr127 Posts: 950
    I just realized that ALG didn't include Mini, which is owned by BMW.... Mini won KBB's award this year for highest resale value, so I wonder where ALG put them.
  • ljflxljflx Posts: 4,690
    Predictions - worthless in my book.

    If they had posted what the result was for achievement of residuals for the 2002 models and compared it to their future predictions it'd be worth something. That way they'd have to explain why things will change or why they will remain the same, whatever the case may be. I said it before and I'll say it again - agressiveness/risk in lease residuals will get you the number one prize every year.
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,251
    I said it before and I'll say it again - agressiveness/risk in lease residuals will get you the number one prize every year.

    So BMW plays with the residual values/subsidies in order to accomplish a good rating. A wonderful rumor which cannot be substantiated unless you know the level of subsidies involved! And you know how worthy unsubstantiated rumors are, dont you?

    they had posted what the result was for achievement of residuals for the 2002 models and compared it to their future predictions it'd be worth something.

    Interesting approach but it appears to be quite worthless in the industry. Otherwise if your approach was better BDD and ALG would consider using your approach instead. But they dont.
  • hpowdershpowders Posts: 4,322
    Speaking of aggresiveness, BMW has outdone itself.

    They are offering irresistible residuals on 24 month leases:

    325i and 525i: 76%

    530i: 74%

    550: 70%

    That 325i subsidy has got to be the best bargain in town.

    If I wasn't already tied up with my 545...ah, I can't even think about it... my wife would kill me!
  • ljflxljflx Posts: 4,690
    "So BMW plays with the residual values/subsidies in order to accomplish a good rating"

    No - they play with residuals so they can move cars more easily.

    "Interesting approach but it appears to be quite worthless in the industry"

    In my book I'll go by past history rather than future predictions. How what is achieved is worthless and what is predicted is the currency to judge things by is beyond any logic I have in me.
  • You know what they say about forward looking statements in the financial consulting industry ;-) We are talking about minute differentiations here. Is ALG the oracle?

    Also, how exactly are the different vehicle models weighed within a brand?

    For what it's worth, ALG also puts out a Depreciatong Ratings list with a more sensible 5-star rating system instead of three-digit accuracy that can not possibly be predicted three years into the future (not the least of which would be the value of US dollar, which if ALG could predict with three-significant number accuracy should be at the bond and currency trading desk making billions of selling peanut consulting papers). While Lexus and Toyota each has four models in the 5-star ratings, not a single BMW model makes it into the 5-star list.
  • bdr127bdr127 Posts: 950
    Why is it that all the Lexicons say that predictions are worthless when it comes to residual/resale, but predictions trump all when it comes to reliability. Clearly both are based on prior performance and current status/value of the vehicles.

    Lexicons: Once and for all.... You can't have your cake and eat it, too.
  • bdr127bdr127 Posts: 950
    Is ALG the oracle?

    Ummm, yes.

    Virtually all financial/leasing institutions reference ALG to come up with their leasing residuals. ALG has already done all the extensive research (and they've been doing it for yeeeears) and they have a proven track record of accurately predicting future values. If they didn't, then they wouldn't be used as THE source for residual values.
  • bdr127bdr127 Posts: 950
    While Lexus and Toyota each has four models in the 5-star ratings, not a single BMW model makes it into the 5-star list.

    Then please tell me how BMW takes the prize....... ???

    Oh wait, I forgot.... ALG ratings are worthless. If that's the case, then why are you even talking about Lexus and Toyota getting 5-star ratings? If the aren't based on anything accurate and shouldn't be considered, then why do you make a post about it? Hmmm.... having your cake, then eating it, too?
  • ljflxljflx Posts: 4,690
    Because reliability predictions are based on past performance. In my case I also have 11 years of flawless Lexus experience. See my other post - if they showed residuals of past 3 years and compared those to their future predictions then the report would have some basis in fact as opposed to using auto mfr. data - which is derived from the leases they are underwriting. But by excluding past performance then they have no need to explain any difference between what is actual history vs what is predicted future. Suppose for example BMW and Lexus were not 1 and 2 in past retention values but were 4 and 5 vs a predicted 1 and 2 in the future. Wouldn't you be interested to know what the basis of the future prediction vs past reality is? I have no doubt BMW and Lexus are right at or near the top , probably in reverse order based on past history, but the point is that any data table that predicts the future without correlating past performance is worthless in my view. Buying into things like that is like buying a stock that someone tells you will appreciate in value but gives you no past history or reason for the predicted appreciation.
  • bdr127bdr127 Posts: 950
    If I were to take the past 3 years of Hyundai, do you think that would accurately predict the next 3 years? Highly unlikely, because Hyundai is on the up-and-up.

    The reverse is probably true for MB, Volvo, and Saab.

    Just like stock, as you mention, things can greatly change in 3 years. For example, look at General Motors, Nortel Networks, Google, etc..... What a difference a few years can make.
  • nvbankernvbanker Posts: 7,285
    "Lexicons: Once and for all.... You can't have your cake and eat it, too."

    Why not? To me, that's pretty much exactly what Lexus gives me. Sure, I like the looks of the German cars better (Audi excepted), and no doubt, they drive with more excitement - but the Lexi look almost as good, the quality is leaps and bounds above, as is the dependability. Cost is the final determinant. Much cheaper to buy and to own. You get your cake, and get to eat it. Anyway, that's how I see it, and that's why I bought the Lexus over the S-500.
  • bdr127bdr127 Posts: 950
    Why not? To me, that's pretty much exactly what Lexus gives me.

    That's not what I was referring to.... I was referring to using an excuse as to why a certain source or reference was not legit, yet turning around and using the same thing to boost your own argument. Call it contradictory, double standard, blahblahblah...
  • nvbankernvbanker Posts: 7,285
    Sorry - my bad. :)
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,251
    But by excluding past performance then they have no need to explain any difference between what is actual history vs what is predicted future.

    Are you referring to ALG's approach above?

    Because the above is certainly not applicable to ALG's approach. They do take into account past performance.

    Here is a description of their approach on the ALG website:

    ALG

    The awards are derived after careful study of segment competition, historical vehicle performance and industry trends.

    It actually looks like those guys at ALG know what they are doing in terms of residual values. Isn't that a shocker especially from a firm that specialized in residual values for the last 36 years and is renowned in the industry.

    BMW is number ONE and deserves the Residual value awards from ALG!

    Case closed!
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,251
    Bdr127,

    we are fighting a non-ending battle here.

    I have enough keyboard scars on my hands to prove the never-ending senselessness of residual value battles in this forum.

    In the end it boils down to the following:

    I love Lexus so please dont confuse me with facts!

    If you continue this battle, just remember you have been warned.
  • In case you did not notice, the predominant financing institutions carrying out the lease deals nowadays are invariably the captive financing arms of the manufacturers. Why? Because regular banks like Chase lost billions of dollars a few years ago playing by the ALG predictions. Chase had to write off such a huge chunk of buckroos that they practically got out of leasing business altogether. Have you noticed how high the bank acquisition fee has gotten lately and how high the over-mileage fees have gotten? They translate to premiums paid to put option under-writers.

    Trusting reliability records and not trusting ALG are actually very consistent: both judgements are based on past performance.
  • Then please tell me how BMW takes the prize....... ???

    Beats the heck out of me. That's why I prefaced the citation with "for what it's worth . . ." I have no idea how ALG managed to give 8 Lexus and Toyota models 5-star depreciation rating (most of them extremely popular models in their segments), and not a single one to BMW, yet has BMW as a brand coming out of ahead. Nor do I have an answer to how ALG is able to derive 3-significant number depreciation numbers for a brand when each model is assigned a 2-significant number depreciation number (frankly, even the 2-sig is 1-sig too many) . . . Do these guys even understand the basics of statistics? I'm not the one trying to prove ALG ratings are reliable . . . you are!
  • ljflxljflx Posts: 4,690
    It's funny - a friend of mine is getting a lot of pressure from a BMW dealer (for him) to buy his X5 at lease end (this month) right now. He's even considering leasing another BMW but probably won't because he wants a larger SUV. I wonder if that pressure has anything to do with the fact that his SUV is not worth the retention value in the lease??

    BTW - it's mathematically impossible to have the highest residual value while not having the lowest depreciation. Highest residual value means lowest percentage of depreciation. The two are different ways of saying the same thing inversely - except in ALG language of course. In ALG land it seems you can retain 60% of value but have more than 40% of depreciation. Mathematically impossible unless of course a very high percentage of your forecast is based on something other than real history - which is why the report is worthless to me.

    Brightness - good pick up. It's incredible how many banks have ceased leasing cars or gone bankrupt trying to do it.
  • The awards are derived after careful study of segment competition, historical vehicle performance and industry trends.

    Both Segment competition and industry trends are forward projections, not past performance. As to careful study, chekc out the Depreciation Ratings by ALG itself. Both ES330 and RX330 are 5-star ranked; the two models account for some 80% of Lexus sales. Not a single BMW model is 5-star ranked. So you tell me which "careful study" is more "careful"

    It actually looks like those guys at ALG know what they are doing in terms of residual values. Isn't that a shocker especially from a firm that specialized in residual values for the last 36 years and is renowned in the industry.

    That would be the same firm that provided the numbers that cost regular banks billions of dollars of loss in the past few years on lease underwriting. Financial analysts can survive for a long time selling bad advice; sound familiar?
  • nvbankernvbanker Posts: 7,285
    I personally don't know of any banks that actually went under from leasing, but I know of several super-regionals, like B of A, who quit leasing because of their ridiculous residual predictions in the late 90's, early 00's. Many of the major disasters were caused by ALG's predictions based upon NO history at all, like in SUVs - a new segment in some classes. For example, in 1998, they had the Lincoln Navigator holding 70% of its value, after 4 years! It had not even been around a year yet, and the segment was red hot, to be sure, but by the time that 4 year lease came to an end, B of A was begging people to buy their truck at a substantially reduced offering, as its value was much closer to 50% by then, leaving B of A eating millions.....
  • mariner7mariner7 Posts: 509
    There are lots of rumors, both in American and British press, of Renault acquiring Jag from Ford. It makes perfect sense to me.

    Ford could only give the S type old platform/engine from Lincoln LS, and X type a pedestrian platform from Mondeo. But Renault could give Jag thoroughly modern platforms and engines from Infiniti, but allow the Brits to tune the suspensions and lacquer up the interiors . Jag cost structure would decrease dramatically, giving it a distinct advantage in the market.

    To me, new Infiniti really started with the introduction of G35 five years ago. And already KBB names M45 and G35c as the luxury sedan and coupe with the very best residuals. So residuals, which are the bane of Jag currently, would take quantum leaps forward.

    Renault won the 2005 F1 championship. So they certainly have outstanding chassis and engine engineers. Right now, they don't have any hi performance commercial cars to work on. Or maybe they've been helping Infiniti all along!

    Ford has lost so much money on Jag, they might be willing to sell it for a song. RR and Bentley are riding on German cars, so why not Jag on French/Japanese?

    When Renault decided to rescue Nissan, not many people thought it could work. I don't know how a rescue of Jag couldn't work. The risk: a couple of billions! Nissan's yearly profits are much bigger than that. The potential rewards are so much greater than the risk this time.
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,251
    but by the time that 4 year lease came to an end, B of A was begging people to buy their truck at a substantially reduced offering, as its value was much closer to 50% by then, leaving B of A eating millions.....

    Picking the exceptions versus the norms in residual predictions distorts the real picture of residual forecasting.

    Similarily picking an exceptional company like Enron and claiming that this represents the norm in Corporate America distorts the real picture of corporate America.

    It ceases to amaze me at what lengths some forum members will go through to discredit any organiztion that ranks BMW as number one.

    BMW is the number one luxury marque in the world! Where are the forum members here that will discredit the whole world and claim that most people in the world are idiots for wanting to buy a BMW?
  • The Navigator case was hardly the exception; many other SUV leases were just as bad for the banks, thanks to ALG nonsense. In fact, IMHO, the ALG unrealistic inflation of SUV residual was a big factor in the SUV popularity (the actual cost to the lessee was far less than the MSRP suggested). The case on VW New Beatle was even worse; Passat to a somewhat less degree, ML really bad, etc. etc. Banks don't just stop a branch of its operation on one bad deals; it's the whole series of bad deals due to ALG's nonsensical forecasts that made major banks stop underwriting leases.

    I actually took the other side of the trade when I acquired my SAAB 9-5 wagon in 2001. I had the money to buy the wagon outright with cash, but instead chose to lease, betting on the fact ALG was inflating residual. At lease end I knocked nearly $2k off the buy-out price, saving $1.5k compared to outright purchase even without considering the subsidized interest rate (which was financing some $30k at near-zero interest rate, a good deal in itself, to the tune of another $3k or so at savings account rate or $6k at average mortgage rate during that time period).

    If you have been watching, ALG incorrect residual projection has been the norm not the exception over the past decade; that's why third-party banks have got out of leasing business, and only the captive financial arms of the manufacturers are still in the game, essentially cooking books by delaying inventory write-downs.
  • patpat Posts: 10,421
    High - End - Luxury - Marques

    Not open season on any lease issue that might cross your mind ...
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,251
    The norm is this:

    BMW residuals/retained values have been consistently the highest in the industry for many years!

    Taking into account historic performance the ALG and Blue Book residuals for BMWs have been consistently correct. Not consistently incorrect as the obscure examples that were pointed out by forum members.

    Comparing a Lincoln Navigator or a Beetle with BMWs is completely pointless. Not even the Lexus brand is comparable to BMW in terms of residuals.
  • ljflxljflx Posts: 4,690
    "Picking the exceptions versus the norms in residual predictions distorts the real picture of residual forecasting."

    So B of A quit the business because of the exceptions???

    NV banker - I meant the big locals and regionals. Chase has cut way back and uses their own residuals now in those circumstances where it chooses to lease. The ALG rankings have no foundation. Any responsible financial person will say - "show me the past performance and your future predictions and explain any differences please".

    In the end this is going to be (and we're getting there rapidly) a business where the auto mfr takes all the risk and lives with his/alg's future predictions.
  • patpat Posts: 10,421
    This is not a leasing discussion, let's give it a rest ... please.
  • ALG residuals for BMWs have been consistently correct.

    Based on what?? The overwhelming majority of leased BMW's are returned instead of being bought out at lease end, despite the "disposition fee" (another premium for put option underwriter). That alone should tell you that the residual projection is wrong. If the residual were correct, there should have been an even wash between buy-out and returns.
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,251
    Based on what??

    BMW has the best historic retained value performance! Not merely projection but also HISTORIC!

    What more proof do you need then that?

    Or do you want to prove your arguments based on Banks losing big bucks from leases on Navigators and various SUVs that have no relation whatsoever to BMW?

    That to me sounds pointless, dont you think?
  • Not even the Lexus brand is comparable to BMW in terms of residuals.

    ALG actually gives 4 Lexus models (including ES330 and RX330, the two models that account for some 80% of Lexus sales) 5-star in terms of depreciation. BMW? not a single model received 5-star. Not that I deem ALG reliable, but since you are making your argument based on ALG ratings; you may want to look into some of the consistency issues.
  • patpat Posts: 10,421
    This is not a leasing discussion, let's give it a rest.

    Hmm, is there an echo in here? :)
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