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Toyota Prius and Honda Hybrid: Will anyone buy Hybrids??
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Rob Fruth - Houston, Tx
http://freeweb.pdq.net/rfruth
1981 Raleigh for commuting, errands & fun
1997 Trek 2300 for real fun !
2000 DX Civic hatchback
Very sophisticated -- what four-year degree teaches that line of reasoning?
By the way, it may delight you to know that GM and Toyota are working together on alternative fuel technologies that may allow you to keep your truck past the next decade -- won't that be nice?
Rob Fruth - Houston, Tx
http://freeweb.pdq.net/rfruth
1981 Raleigh for commuting, errands & fun
1997 Trek 2300 for real fun !
2000 DX Civic hatchback
The reason nobody wants to buy this things is cause they are uglier than sin. Put technology in a regular looking car for a reasonable price and people will buy it. otherwise only hardcore greenpeace members will.
The fact is the technology isn't even close to as good as a gas engine. And until it is there most people won't buy them.
You may not care for the Prius (I don't either -- it's slow and unattractive, except for the interior), but a lot of people do, and the fact that they're out there racking up miles means that, in time, the technology will improve and costs will decline. A friend of mine with whom I ride share from time to time has one, and the silence is remarkable. It really is a terrific commuter car -- no more, no less.
I predict that 10 years from now vehicles will be even bigger.
Chevytruckfan's full size pickup will be a small vehicle only driven by sorority girls. I see it now, "But dad, that ten year old truck is sooo cute" "sorry honey, can't have you driving a 5,000 lb vehicle with all the 10,000 lb vehicles on the road. Not safe"
Post 10 years from now "all I want is a vehicle that can haul 30,000 lb, clear a 4 ft curb, and has a 300 gallon tank"
Soccer mom's will drive grey hound buses. Truck fans will drive semi's. Average gas mileage will be 2 mpg. People will live 200 from work. And people will complain that gas prices are unfairly high.
Go Figure.
I think the Prius and Insight are technological marvels, but believe the Prius will do better in the market due to the fact that it can seat 4 instead of two. However, the Insight is more attractive. I actually got to see an Insight on the PA Turnpike when it first came out. Still, hybrid and electric vehicles are still pretty rare and probably driven by the ecologically-minded and technophiles.
Lemko, you're right on this one. According to a Toyota Motor Sales, USA representative, as soon as they see consumers moving from mid-size mainstream cars over to the Prius as opposed to the environmentally conscious and compact/subcompact owners, they will boost production from 12,000 a year to over 100,000.
Construction workers, farmers, campers, and others who need to generate electric at remote sites now do not have to pop an extra 5 to 15k for a generator. Their truck is the generator. Plus the buyer gets the tax break for buying a hybrid.
The environment gets two benefits: One, the improved mileage and lower pollution from the truck; and Two, the truck engine is subject to the clean air act while generators are not.
Those who drive trucks purely for the image may not care about this brilliant development. But those who buy trucks because they actually need them will probably flock to this new product.
The Prius just got a real nice review in Autoweek, by the way. Just wish they'd put some sex into the sheetmetal.
1.) I have the full schematics of the Prius right in front of me, and if you had them, you would not be questioning that this is the most technologically advanced vehicle in the world.
2.) Yes, Volkswagen diesels get excellent fuel mileage and I'm not against diesels except for the fact that they don't meet California emissions standards. Diesels actually meet ULEV for CO and HC but are off the charts for NOx and particulate matter, the latter of which is carcinogenic. Yes, Geo Metros get good gas mileage but nobody buys them and the 3 cylinder performance isn't anywhere close to a Prius. Also it only gets 30 city 34 highway since they discontinued the 3-cylinder.
3.) I wasn't equating technological advancement with fuel economy, you were the one who are trying to compare apples to oranges. That's like asking does a 6-disc CD changer make you go faster from zero to 60. For the record, the Geo Metro at best was a LEV and the Prius is a SULEV and there's a HUGE difference, there.
4.) Battery disposal is a problem but the batteries in the Prius are warranted for 8 years and 100,000 miles. I even believe they are partially recyclable.
5.) The Prius is a compact and the Metro is a subcompact, so it's not fair to compare their prices. To be fair, the Prius needs to be compared with the Corolla and Civic, in which case the incremental cost is around three to four thousand dollars. There is also talk about tax breaks and incentives for hybrids which would narrow that gap further.
6.) Yes the Prius gets better gas mileage in the city than the highway. True, most people spend their commutes on the freeway....stuck in traffic on freeways that are not at free flow conditions.
7.) Hybrids are not a compromise for anything except in heavy-duty applications (even though they're used in transit buses). Take the Ford Escape, for example. The 2003 hybrid escape will have the performance of the V6 with the fuel mileage of the 4-cylinder. Same goes with the Dodge Durango. Other than price, where's the compromise.
8.) Toyota does not lose money on every hybrid it sells (I don't know about Honda). Toyota Motor Sales, USA has indicated that from a manufacturing perspective they break even and they are committed to the technology. It's too difficult to measure R&D costs because they will be reaping the benefits of this vehicle for decades to come.
9.) You are welcome to voice your opinion on the market for hybrids, but quite frankly it's too early to tell how they will do in the market so all you can really do is speculate based on your information which, to this point has not been very good.
You're more than welcome to be skeptical about it, just know a little more about the technology before you do so.
1.) Infrastructure for alternative fuels is limited (CNG for example, though there are over 100 public stations in California)
2.) There is no hydrogen infrastructure at all.
But I understand your point. Hydrogen is about 15-20 years away from a fuel for personal transportation.
Pocahontas
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Herr Verner's effort is a diesel, and as such is a major polluter (thereby substituting a worse form of pollution for another); Mr. Metro's effort is a tiny urban crawler that will barely seater that can NEVER haul more than two people, is only available with a manual transmission and is rough and noisy; and Tommy-san's Prius is a true 5-passenger car with as good accomodations as any other car in its price category -- not to mention decent handling and braking (sorry, your opinion about the last two items is in the minority -- read the latest Autoweek and other reviews of the car).
So: Considering the overall mission, I'd rank the cars thus:
Toyota: A+
Honda: A-
Volkswagen: B
Suzuki: C
abbanat, I agree they have a long way to go, but this first effort seems a bit like a rush job. All the manufacturers know they have to work towards a zero emissions car and yet they come out with a gas powered electric? Do you honestly believe this is there best effort? That they can not make a green car that gets better milage on the highway than "all" the conventional cars? If it is I think we are worse off than we thought.
www.rialtoairportdrags.com. in case the button doesn't work or call (909) 820-2622
Despite the Honda getting 15-20 mpg better than the Prius, a Prius owner doesn't consume that much more fuel than an Insight over, say 15,000 miles a year. Why? because fuel consumption is not linear with mpg, it's a curve with diminishing returns. Run a fuel consumption excel chart from 10mpg to 75 mpg over 15,000 miles, you will see that it is a curve and that there is very little difference in fuel consumption from 45 mpg to 60 mpg. The biggest improvements can be made by improving vehicles with 10-20 mpgs
You also need to understand that comparing the Prius with the Insight is unfair. The only thing similar about them is the fact that they're both hybrids. The Insight was designed from the start only to get the maximum fuel economy. The Prius was designed to meet the everyday needs of consumers looking for a compact (not subcompact) car. It's like comparing a Civic to a delSol.
Technologically advanced vehicles are not defined by their bells and whistles. The drivetrain technology of the Prius is unbelievable for this price class, or any, and it's apparent you're unfamiliar with it. You can't simply discard the significance of this statement until you've seen the schematics of the vehicle. You may not value this in a car, but others do. That's why they make chocolate and vanilla ice cream.
I don't understand your point about whether there are two or three commuters in a vehicle and what relevance that has on the discussion of hybrids. Please clarify.
Also understand that people rarely buy vehicles based on the numbers. But if you insist,the numbers for the Metro clearly indicate that nobody
wants to buy it, yet the Prius has a 3 month waiting list. What's the point of advocating a vehicle nobody wants to buy?
Do I believe this is their best effort? Yes! This has been an incredible effort considering the costs of advanced technologies. Do you think auto makers would even be CONSIDERING hybrids if it weren't for the ZEV mandate? There would be ZERO research at all. The Prius and Insight DO get better fuel economy than all the conventional vehicles when you consider the previously cited combined mpg cycle. Remember...diminishing returns to scale the higher your mpg. The Japanese version of the Prius gets even BETTER mileage but they wouldn't bring it to the American market because they felt like it needed more power. The benefits of hybrids will be truly evident when they are applied to gas guzzlers like light-trucks and SUVs. But you don't have to like them or even buy them because understandably you don't think they're a good value. That's perfectly fine and justifiable. I concede, it's the "innovators" and "early majority" who will be the first to buy them, but they will continue to advance and more improvements will be made. My argument for them will continue to be supported over time as hybrid technology improves.
I understand your argument, I just don't think they're particularly fair and don't acknowledge an understanding of the design goals for the vehicles and I don't think you're making fair vehicle comparisons. However, it's also not fair for me to expect people to understand these vehicles in depth, so I'll cut you some slack! :>)
Metro:
City MPG: 30
Hwy MPG: 34
Combined MPG: 32.2
Prius:
City MPG: 52
Hwy MPG: 45
Combined MPG: 48.7
Insight:
City MPG: 61
Hwy MPG: 68
Combined MPG: 64.1
No matter how you slice it, the hybrids outperform that Metro...by a lot (but not so much in overall fuel consumption).
Now a Volkswagen TDI may get similar mpg as a Prius (though a little bit lower) you have to recognize that they can't be bought in states that have adopted California emissions laws, and you also have to realize that diesels themselves have an incremental cost compared to an average vehicle in it's class. So really, the difference between a Jetta TDI and Prius is around $2000, and maybe less, depending on how the Jetta is optioned out.
We have to take little baby steps. So while my general opinions may seem very liberal, I also understand that these technologies and benefits need to win people over based on their own merits (which they can and IMO will), not simply because I want to impose my beliefs on other people. I also think the hybrid market will be sustainable because light-duty trucks will need to meet passenger car emissions in California and hybrids are the only way they will be able to do that. But you're right, time will tell.
You couldn't buy the EV-1 even if you wanted to. GM was only leasing it. What would it have cost you to buy? Probably around $70k. GM did learn a lot from that vehicle, so despite what many people think, it was not a failure. Only a failure from a sales point of view. A recent issue of Automotive News has an interview with a GM EV-1 program manager. Can't remember his name, though.
BTW, the Beta was better but the VCR prevailed because it was already firmly rooted.
Finally, go for the DVD player. The market is maturing and the video rental places have really improved their selection and availability of DVDs. I just bought my second DVD player(third if you count my computer) from Wal-Mart for $115. It was a no-name brand (Oritron) but I couldn't pass it up. Even has S-Video output.
BTW I hear you on the Japanese aftermarket niche. It's really big in California (not sure where you live). I don't understand it, but it's a different generation. I was on the tail end of the "mini-truck" generation, but that never made sense to me, either.
In fact, both hybrids were designed to maximize fuel efficiency. The only difference between Prius and Insight, besides technology involved, is that Honda took a 'concept' route and Toyota decided to make it a mainstream car.
The Insight concept is more intriguing to me since it is much closer to conventional gasoline engine, while Prius is closer to the electric vehicles. Honda is using Insight concept and due to come out with a Civic (this year?), and later, CR-V using the IMA-gasoline engine combination. These two will not have the same mileage as Insight, but given that Civic HX is already rated at 36/44 mpg, I tend to believe that Hybrid Civic
will be close to Prius (or better) in mileage, and definitely in performance (based on some calculations, assuming 1.4 liter SOHC VTEC-E with same size IMA as in Insight).
Anyway, yes, I'd love to go -- dunno if I'll be particiapting, because streetable small-displacement cars generally don't do that well in the 1/8 mile -- lack of torque means they do their best in the last half of the 1/4 mile -- but it would be interesting to try. In any case, you could give my little ride a spin and see what you think.
My home e-mail address is badtoy@earthlink.net -- give me a holler and we'll hook up.
By the way, I will be going to Palmdale this weekend, if you're interested.
me personally, I don't want to pay for it, make it an option.
I'm debating whether to sell it for a motorcycle or a downpayment on a convertible...
Of course I'm gonna win it...
Europe wisely applies an even-handed approach: by making gas expensive they don't favor any given technology. Thus diesels and small gas powered cars have done very well.
Sadly in the US we often want the pain-free solution, and our government often chooses technological winners and losers. Consider the Arizona "alternative fuel" bill that cost hundreds of millions and ended up subsidizing SUV's (!), consider the idiotic CARB mandate that forces automakers to sell golf carts, consider that Bush recently proposed tax credits for hybrids.
If diesels are too dirty, fine. But let automakers pass emission laws with any technology they choose.