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The Great Hybrid Battery Debate
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Comments
Nothing is perfect.
What the issue has been is that the battery naysayers (who will be proven wrong as surely as the sky is blue) are saying, basically, that NO hybrid will go it's whole life without a costly battery replacement.
And that statement is patently untrue.
There is a gent in Canada who has a 254,000 mile Prius on the original battery, and has averaged 50 MPG the whole time.
There are numerous hybrid cars on greenhybrid with more than 120,000 miles on the original battery.
There are 50,000 or more hybrids in Japan, some as old as almost 10 years now, and we have heard nothing of battery failures from that country. (and with the www, we would know if that was happening)
All this battery crying is being done by those people who for some UNEXPLAINABLE reason do not like hybrids, or are trying to dissuade the movement toward them.
I have a friend who has leased an EV-1, owned an Insight, a Civic Hybrid, and two Priuses, and he has had ZERO problems with any of them, other than his last Prius had an air bag sensor that kept going bad. Nothing ever battery related at all.
One member at another forum had a 68,000 mile HCH and had the battery tested at 96 percent of original capacity. Even if it loses 5 percent for every 50,000 miles to follow, which is an unlikely high number, he will still have 86 percent capacity by 168,000 miles. So he loses a couple of MPG per tank - it's still more than the competitive technology can do.
What will turn out in the wash is that sure, there will be a few failed batteries. Just like in other cars which have failed trannies, failed this and failed that.
But the bottom line is that the longterm benefits of owning a hybrid FAR outweigh the supposed battery risk, for everyone except the MOST skeptic and cynical people, and those are the ones who are saying batteries are going to fail left and right.
Right. Rest is anecdotal... sorry 'bout that. I realize some are rabid believers whether they think they're being green (they're not when all resources are considered), being economical (CR blew whistle on that), or just like the brand of car they're buying.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Some hybrids pay for themselves over time
As far as "green", well the only people who have shown hybrids to be "ungreen" was the infamous "dud-to-dud" study where they compared a 300,000 mile Hummer to a 100,000 mile Prius.
HV battery replaced at 88,000 miles.
Well in CA it's under warranty up to 150,000 miles so something occurred within warranty - cause unknown - to make this happen.
The ad poster didn't say the cost was $4000 he writes the 'value' is $4000. Unless he damaged the battery himself then he has no cost at all in the matter. His own estimate is that the value was $4000.
There is no way of knowing what happened.
Minor detail
I think you have missed the point n
entirely when you say; "that NO hybrid will go it's whole life without a costly battery replacement.
And that statement is patently untrue. "
You are talking in absolute terms, not real terms. As stated you are saying the at least one hybrid will go its whole life without a battery replacement. And yest that is proabably true.
The statements made earlier ware also abosolutes that the "battery will last the life of the car", "Toyota has not repalcened any batteries" We all know there will be exceptions and that to make any aboslute statement is absurd.
Some batterys have and will fail. Some cars will never have a battery problem , if fact you have provided some examples.
But what will happen to tha majority of users within one standard deviation? within two standard deviations ?
There has not been proven as far as i can see any long term benefit of a a hybrid. You pay a premium of $3-5K up front and even with the mileage savings it takes a minimum of 3 years just to break even. In the menatime, in order to achieve the 3year range you have to change your driving habbits and drive like a grandma or it takes 5 years to breakeven. Now it you compare that cost with TCO of a true econiomy car, such as a Chevrolet Aveo or an Kia Rio, you will never break even. And if TCO is a person's main objective, then they can forgo some luxury features and save a lot of money. If batteries do fail and statistically some have and some will it skews the hybrid cost even higher.
LOL battery understanding and FUD is high. Once failure starts it is exponenetial not linear. And the understanding and definition of what constitues a failure is a legal nightmare or dream if you are a lawyer. Howe much does a battery have to fail before it is repalced under warrnaty. read the tails of woe of the Honda Insight owners whose battery has become useless, but not enough to be replaced under warranty.
LOL,
MidCow
Well, if you keep talking in terms of mileage, I will keep being a naysayer.
How old is your gent's battery? You can run up 250K miles in only 4-5 years. If the battery is 8 or 10 years old, then I'm impressed.
Remember, miles have very little to do with battery life.
Batteries have no moving parts, and do not wear like tires or engines. They work on a chemical process that starts degrading the moment they are manufactured. High operating temperatures on hot roads and under the hood accelerate the degradation process.
There are no long term examples of hybrid cars in the USA. So your statement is without any merit. When the 2004 Prius is still going strong in 2014 and beyond you will have something to go on. Until then it is all speculation.
If the average life of a vehicle in the USA is 8.5 years. We don't even have any hybrids that have reached the average life expectancy.
The only reason that ad caught my eye was the replacement battery. The statement has been made many times that there is NO record of a Prius high voltage battery going bad.
I have emailed the fellow selling the Prius, asking for particulars and will pass the information along when he responds.
I'd like to see who said that. MY contention has been that no owners are paying for them - YET. And the failures have been very very very tiny in comparison to the total numbers sold.
And those batteries are MODULAR, meaning they can be replaced in part and do not have to be replaced entirely just because some of the modules have stopped holding a charge or whatever the problem was.
We know for a fact that up until just a couple of years ago Toyota nor Honda had replaced a single ENTIRE failed battery.
Let do a hypothetical: Even if they have replaced 50 batteries, a huge number which we know is too high, how many hybrid cars/trucks/vans/buses are on the road in the world? 800,000 by now, all manufacturers combined?
50 out of 800,000 is a failure rate of 0.0000625.
Name me another expensive automotive technology which fails less than that........
And your Prius 8.5 years example - we know there are Priuses in Japan which are that old. No reports of massive failures from the island of the Nipponese. :shades:
How do you 'know' that's too high? Do you have data?
My thinking is the PR is so tightly controlled, the public has no idea of how many have been replaced--especially since "that no owners are paying for them" that means it's worth it to the companies pushing for the battey-powered cars to pay the cost, at least for now.
It's only when ads like the one noted on this discussion give away taht replacements have been made that the public has any idea.
You may recall that Toyota made a public apology in Japan for not publicizing and recalling vehicles due to a steering defect--they hid it.
>No reports of massive failures
You own words infer there have been 'minor' failures--just not "massive" failures.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Batteries have been replaced. Yes, they are composed of many individual cells, but in most multi-cell applications when an individual cell goes bad, if not detected early and replaced, it begins to ruin other batteries. Many dealers do not have the expertise or the equipment to correctly diagnose individual module failures or to determine the state of each module. So guess what? They replace the entire unit, a carry-over from Lexus maintenance policies. Less technician diagnostic time, prevents future failures.
Hypothetically , you could be correct about failure percentage, but there is absolutely no substantiating data. As guess what, you won't find it. Toyota and Honda and everyone else dependent on "traction batteries" and their reliability and reputation is going to be very, very closed mouth about replacements and failures. Who would buy a new car with new technology that didn't have a long comprehensive warranty or bullet proof reliability.
We don't know the real failure rate because it is being swept under carpets. And again what is the defintion of "failure". Apparently, there are definitions to suit the person quoting. If by failure you mean that 100% of every battery could not hold a 10% charge. Then there are probably no failures. But if you are realistic and battery failure is to the car owner, whereby his mileage begins to drop or his battery discharges rapidly, then I would venture to say there have already been many, many failures.
They will fail, batteries are not diamonds,
MidCow
Every single owner who has had a battery failure which has required replacement (small small number) has told SOMEONE about it. That's a given.
And the hybrid owners are very loyal and pack-ish. Word gets around. That's how we know about the one Insight owner who had a failed battery and only paid $500 with Honda picking up the rest of the tab. That's how we know about any of the reported failures. People talk at parties. People talk at work, at restaurants, etc.
Honda and Toyota can only "keep secrets" within their publicity department. They cannot "silence the owner" of a hybrid with a failed battery.
That's how we know they are failing at an super small rate. This is not 1979, when maybe things happen in a town where no one outside the town ever knows.
Hybrid owners have kids, too - kids who talk to their friends and then to their friends and so on.
Failed hybrid battery stories GET AROUND. They are not "hushed up" by some invisible Honda/Toyota Ninja Squad. :shades:
The fact that we have so few of those stories is plenty proof that it is not happening.
ROFLMAO,
MidCow
P.S.- Settle out of court and don't disclose the amount, part of the settlement requirements
P.S.S.- 100% of the people alive now use the Internet, 100% of the people that use the Internet participate in forums and 100% of the people will be truthful in forums WOW WOW
Fact remains that people talk, and word gets around, ESPECIALLY with all the discussion that hybrid vehicles generate in the FIRST place.
Laterz.....
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Word of mouth is.
And word of mouth eventually makes it's way into:
news reports
websites
There's no denying that batteries have failed and will fail. The problem and the issue is the frequency of such failures.
We Would Know.
It seems that you give the automakers way to much influence over the press. Heck the current powers in Wash would like to have this much influence if it were at all possible. Realistically too if there were significant failures don't you think someone somewhere would be complaining such as in the Camry Woes Forum, leading to a competitor or agent of a competitor ( news reporter? ) to dig deeper to find out what's happening.
In addition, since the hybrid systems are all ( nearly all ) still under warranty then it would be the company's responsibility to replace them at no cost.
It's only when ads like the one noted on this discussion give away taht replacements have been made that the public has any idea.
Agree absolutely. And AFAIK this is the only one I've seen in over 500,000 vehicles in service here. I do know that we damaged the HV battery in the original demo we received in 2000. It was our fault since we didn't know anything about the system or the vehicle or how to use it. So that's two - one was owner abuse ( ours ).
You may recall that Toyota made a public apology in Japan for not publicizing and recalling vehicles due to a steering defect--they hid it.
Two managers did. It's a different environment now since Ford/Firestone.
Most importantly no company or press group can keep a firestorm of dissatisfaction or failures from the public eye. Some scoop-hound somewhere no matter their leanings will want to be the first to publish get their name in lights.
You can continue to search for blemishes in the hybrid systems but isn't there something more useful to do?
Don't tell me what to do. Seems devotees doth protest too greatly?
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Incorrect conclusion. Since you have no data to the contrary you conclude that the lack of reports significant numbers of failures signifies nothing. It signifies that failures are not occuring except possibly in isolated cases.
We don't know the real failure rate because it is being swept under carpets.
False statement with no supporting data whatsoever. This is one person's highly-biased opinion.
Substantiating data please.
I think CNN was going for the "Paint Drying" or "Grass Growing" story instead
Toyo is even 'monitoring' a thread here with a rep to try to throw water on the fires. Check CR's evaluation of Avalon after their glowing pretest small picture and aprobation... Reality is here.
Now back to batteries.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Substantiating data please.
Just remember not all this data is public information, much is settled by out-of-court non-disclosure.
If you saw the tip of an iceberg in the ocean and didn't know about icebergs, how big would you think an iceberg was ?
The problem is bigger than you think of wish and it is just now getting close to the exponentiation level.
Check my words in one year (2007), two years (2008) and five years (2011). Most cars are not old enough to have battery problems that haven't been covered under warranty and fixed free and most cars are still not old enough to encounter the statistical end of life of a traction battery.
Lets say the Prius really took off in 2003 and didn't really start selling strong until 2004, 2005. If you estimate (okay Hypothesize) that a typical traction battery life is 5 years then we won't be seeing the real failure numbers until 2009 with the majority starting in 2010 and 2011.
I predict ( and iIam sure Nostradamus did also) that you will see a signifant number of Prius HSD traction battery failures and Insight IMA traction battery failures by the Year 2011? Wanna bet/ any takers ? It is liken to Texas Holdem, I have pocket threes and two threes have flopped and there is no possibility of a straight flush. It is 100% absolute certainty!
YOMV (Your Opinion May Vary),
MidCow
But it is a difference of opinion , not an incorrect conclusion. You hypothesis is different and is not proven either.
Actually it is not a false statement , but yet agian a difference of opinion. Even by your and Larsb's own words, first you say there have benn absolutely no battery failures and then you recant and talk about several you know of personally. There are potentially many, many more that are not being aired in forums, which by the way is not the best substaniating, nor statistically accurate data. Many car owners do not particpate in car forums, probably less than 1% (an estimate). Many owners do not complain if they have a problem and it has been fixed for free; that doesn't mean the problem didn't exist. Car companies do not publicize problems and recalls unless they are forced too; it just doesn't make good business sense. To claim that problems are not being reported is in your words "This is one person's highly-biased opinion. " is very denigrating to that person. There is no substantiation that there are not many more people that feel the same way and/or that it is based on actual experiences.
YOMV,
MidCow
Huh?
I suppose you can verify this statement as well, MidCow. It appears that you're privvy to various warranty claims and settlements between Toy/Hon and owners throughout the US.
Your private info is strange since I've had 5 warranty issues resolved on 3 vehicles in the last 12 months and not a single one required me to sign anything.
This might not be speculation on your part would it :P .
I always fold to an allin move unless I have the nuts or the amount is inconsequential. ( Aside: just qualified this past Sunday night for a $10000 seat in the Foxwoods WPT Event in Nov. )
I would not bet that there will be no failures on 8-10 y.o. Prius' or Civics by the year 2011. They are electromechanical devices afterall. I would bet that the incidence will be less than 10% and would take odds that it will be less than 5%.
The second one was the recent post by gagrice about the ad he saw. Those are the only two that I know of.
I could have pocket 4's and 2 more 4's can show up in turn and river.
While I don't disagree with your battery theories, it seems hold'em isn't your game. :P
They should be suing the EPA, who has admitted that their mileage tests do not meet the REALITY of driving in 2006.
In fact, they are revising the tests for the 2008 model year.
ALL CARS will have more realistic EPA ratings by the end of the 2008 model year.
Toyota and other car companies have nothing to do with the mileage situation. If pressed in court, they CAN produce records which PROVE that the test mileage WAS achieved in the lab.
In addition, maybe they allow Wayne Gerdes to show the upset owners how to get 100 MPG with their Priuses. :shades:
Those lawsuiters are loozers who will without a doubt Looze.
The 60 MPG Lawsuits
EV World interviews attorney Robert Brennan on pending consumer lawsuits over hybrid car fuel economy claims
While hybrid-electric car owners appear quite happy with their vehicles -- and I am one of them -- not everyone is so pleased. A small number of disappointed buyers have retained the services of California attorney Robert Brennan in an effort to seek compensation for what they believe are misleading claims by Toyota, and most likely Honda, about the published fuel economy ratings of their gasoline-electric hybrids.
60 MPG Lawsuits
We know there are a lot of disgruntled owners that have filed suits over mileage.
but the article states:
A small number of disappointed buyers...
Which is it?
Also the article states :
Fuel economy lawsuits are not new to the law firm of Brennan, Weiner and Simons of La Crescenta, California. They've successfully litigated over the last six to seven years similar complaints against SUV makers whose official mileage claims, as stated on the "Monroney sticker" on a new car, are also seen as unrealistic exaggerations. Claims of 24 mpg on the highway and 17 in the city turn out to be 12 on the highway and 7 in the city.
"There is a problem not only with hybrid vehicles, but with vehicles in general of severely overstating the available gas mileage on these vehicles," Brennan told me, citing a recent report in the Los Angeles Times where one driver claimed to be getting less than 30 miles per gallon from his hybrid.
So as I understand the article this Mr Brennan is an 'ambulance chaser' as regards all vehicles and the Moroney labels. Ohhh, I thought this was something unique to the hybrids. He/they were just adding hybrids to their resume's.
Understood now.
Many have been added according to Consumer Affairs since 2004. You asked for data. I responded.
My problem with the hybrids is not mileage. It is complexity. I believe it is planned obsolescence. We are training the citizens to buy extended warranties that were unheard of a few years back. Then encouraging them to dump the car before the warranty expires. I do not see a vehicle in the bunch that has much of a chance of lasting as long as the early Lexus or 1980s Mercedes. We are being sold plastic junk. Might as well be made in China with all the other crap we buy.
Hybrids are too complex for the long haul. My wife and I look around and don't see anything worth buying. I just looked at an older PU truck that I may buy. I will sell this GMC Hybrid while Edmund's has a TMV equal to what I paid for it last year. Compared to my three 1990s GM trucks it is junky. And it is the only one built in the USA.
I've one couple/family who have bought 4, another 3, several two each and they are waiting for the next one in about 2 yrs.
The electomechanical complexity is not an issue to any of them. It's just an auto. Many of the drivers are like me, megamilers, who clock 25-50,000 miles annually so any vehicle that they drive is a 3-6 yr tool for getting from A to B.
Your point about extended warranties is valid but it's not for the drive/hybrid systems. The new vehicles are rolling studio's or computers. All the electronics are the costly risks that warrant taking out extra protection.
Forget the batteries, some of the electronics on these new vehicles are $2000-4000 just by themselves. That's the main reason why I'd consider an Ext Warranty on any new vehicle. Most of the electronics are only covered by the 3/36 Basic warranty.
HEV battery testing report
1) The battery pack is not subject to wild swings in ambient temperature. It does this by using the same air supply as the passenger cabin. After all, the passengers are unlikely to want to suffer in 120+ degree heat, or freeze to death in 40 degree or less cold. Also, the battery pack is not kept in the engine compartment, where those sorts of temperature swings are typically seen, and certainly contribute to the death of a regular lead-acid car battery.
2) The battery is never deeply discharged or overcharged. What kills your typical consumer electronic NiMh and NiCad batteries is discharging them below a certain level, and then overcharging them. By keeping the hybrid battery pack in a narrow state of charge (SOC), you don't get those huge swings, which means you never go through a full discharge/charge cycle, which means you lengthen the life of the battery pack immensely. While the individual cells in the battery pack may resemble a typical consumer NiMh battery, the way in which they are used in is completely different.
Could my battery pack die prematurely? Sure. But so could the automatic transmission in my minivan. Or it's timing belt could suddenly snap. And those components sure as hell aren't warranteed for 10 years or 150K miles.
Those are excellent measures taken by Toyota. They will probably (conservitavely) add a year to the useful life of the NiMH cells.
Insurance policies for hybrids are the same as for any other car, however, some insurers will automatically replace a hybrid's battery if it has been damaged in an accident – a cost of up to $3,000 – rather than risk the repair of this new technology.
From this link
Just dumb luck, or superior engineering?
In addition, he said the vehicle costs only one-third the usual expenses on maintenance over a 24-month period because it has fewer wear-and-tear components. His current Prius recently surpassed 400,000 kilometres with no hybrid component failures.
As the highest mileage 2004 model on the road, it will be shipped back to Toyota in Japan shortly to be stripped down for research, just as with the 2001 model that Mr. Grant turned to taxi duty back on Nov. 1, 2000.
Mr. Grant also suffers less when gas prices climb.
"Every 10 cents a litre that gas goes up, we're looking at a $1.20 to $1.50 per shift increase in fuel costs," he said. "A regular cab driver is looking at between $3.30 a shift and $5.50 a shift. That is just phenomenal."
I don't think 400k kilometers in 3 years is a good indicator of battery life in the Prius. We are getting people with failed batteries in the 2001 Prius. The real test is the next 5-7 years when the average Prius user has had the vehicle 7-10 years. You can see a dramatic price drop when the used hybrids get close to 100k miles. No one wants to get stuck with an out of warranty traction battery.
Extreme cases are not an indication of what the average user can expect. Why did he give it back to Toyota unless is was wore out. Or do they keep giving him new ones to test for them?
My point about the 250,000 miles is that all these people who have said the Prius will not last that many miles - well, here is your first example of how wrong you will be.
He gave it back to Toyota probably for the same reason he gave his other one back to them - so they could test it. It's a great test case for their technology and they can learn what went wrong and can learn what (if any) components were doing extremely well or were on their final legs.
Mileage is only one element in the life of a vehicle. My concern has always been years of trouble free service. Not miles. When I see the Prius II running around for 10 years without battery failures I will believe Toyota was correct. I would also like to know at what point of deterioration will Toyota feel compelled to replace a battery?
Batteries in laptops are subject to a different kind of abuse. deep discharge and fully recharged. They start losing their ability to give full service very soon after you buy them. Most are only warranted for 90 days.
Nickel Metal Hydride Battery
World's top level input/output to weight ratio - light weight, long life.
In addition to being light-weight and having a long service life, the high power output nickel metal hydride (Ni-MH) battery used in the HYBRID SYNERGY DRIVE system provides a high input/output to weight ratio (power output in relation to weight). It does not require recharging from an outside power source, nor does it require periodical replacement.
The connection structure of the cells (individual batteries) has been redesigned and different materials are employed for the electrodes resulting in lower internal resistance. The battery unit integrated into Prius delivers approximately 540 W/kg, one of the highest input/output to weight ratios in the world.
Furthermore, the system maintains the battery charge at a constant level at all times by monitoring and computing the cumulative amount of discharge under acceleration, and recharging by regenerative braking or with surplus power under normal running conditions. This avoidance of excessive battery draining/recharging is another reason for the long life of the battery.
The battery cells are now connected to each other at two points to reduce internal resistance in the battery pack. The computer can use the generating force from all three MG units to recharge the batteries and is programmed to keep them between 80% and 40% charge. As the Toyota specialist says, this makes for a "happy battery".
It's not a Duracell battery, Gary. It's designed and implemented with long life in mind.
Well, you are in a short cab ride. You are not there to take a nap and relax and see how far you can stretch your legs.
No one I have heard about who owns or has ridden in a Prius thinks the rear leg room is inadequate for a normal-sized person not taking a nap.
People don't rent a Limo for legroom. Normal (i.e. not NBA players) people rent a Limo for a lot of reasons, but legroom is not one of them.
You are not renting a cab for the voluminous room inside. You are renting it to carry your stuff and you from point A to point B as quickly as possible. I've been in countries where all the cabs are small cars. The people there aren't clamoring for Town Cars.
There are hundreds if not thousands of hybrid cabs in the world in use right now. If they were inadequate, we would be seeing stories about cab companies reducing their hybrid fleet and going back to big ole gas guzzlers.
Have you seen any of those stories? No, I have not either. So it's not happening.
PS
If I was not so tight I could get a Limo for $75.