Will Camry Retain The Mid-Size Sales Lead In '15?

hpmctorque

The 2013 Accord and Altima are fresher designs than the Camry (by one year). They also beat Camry in EPA numbers. Fusion and Malibu are also all-new for 2013, but they won't take the sales crown away from Camry. I'd put my money on the Accord, and look for Camry and Altima to be #2 and 3, respectively. How about you?

markitdown

I would say no if you are referring to consumer sales. The Toyota option packages offer the least value as many features offered on entry level Accords and Altimas are not offered on entry level Toyota packages. Some features aren't offered on Camry at all like Accord's side mirror camera and memory seats. Since Camry was a 2012 makeover, there will be less excitement over 2013. Camry's update was the most conservative of those cars redesigned in 2012 and 2013. Plus some may go for 2013 Ford Fusion and 2014 Mazda 6 also redesigned. Camry had much less competition in 2012 and still did not crush their competitors.

fezo

I think the Camry will hang on just on momentum. It's been a long time since the Accord won the segment even when they had the better car.

OTOH the rise by the Altima is already showing that the "I always buy a (your car here)" crowd is shrinking more than ever.

Now if the Mazda takes it I'll faint.

markitdown

Did not mean to insinuate that Mazda 6 would be a competitor for the top spot, but they will eat away at the Camry's numbers along with all the new models. Point being there are several redesigned models during the upcoming year, and Camry was one of few new cars in 2012. I realize Camry will not change much for 2013, but they may want to consider better packages of options to compete better with the new models that seem like a better value.

benjaminh

If you are counting fleet sales and sales to rental car companies, I don't think the Camry can be beat in 2013. Toyota blows them out the door to keep that #1 spot. And their huuuuuge factory in my state of KY (I think it employs something like 7000 people) can make at full tilt 500,000 vehicles a year. Unless something happens to the economy, I think that factory will be going at full tilt in 2013. Now 50k of those cars will be Avalons, Venzas, etc, but I think a full 450,000 will be Camrys.

But just last month, in August, Honda sold more of the old 2012 model Accord to actual retail customers than Toyota sold Camrys to retail customers.

So on that measure, of real people rather than fleets or rental car companies, I think Honda has just regained the #1 spot and will keep it.

Honda's huge but not quite as huge Marysville OH plant can make something like 400,000 cars at full tilt. One Honda exec said something interesting recently. I don't have a link, but he said that if the demand was there for the Accord they would make it at another plant, or even import it from Japan again if they had to. Seems quite aggressive from the normally not quite as aggressive Honda, but I think they feel rightly that the 2013 Accord is a winner.

Anyway, here are my guesses for calendar year 2013:

Camry (retail and rental): c. 450k
Accord: c. 400k
Altima: c. 350k
Fusion: c. 300k
Sonata: c. 280k
Passat: c. 200k

I'm a big Honda fan, but I just don't think they can take number 1 next year. But 2014? Maybe. And if that's going to happen we should start to see the Accord pass the Camry in monthly sales about a year from now....

What could upset the applecart and put the Accord on top in 2013 is the new IIHS small offset crash test. This test is about to take place, and it seems like only Honda has actually designed its midsize car to pass. Not sure, but that could take the Camry down a notch, and it'll take Toyota at least a year to redesign and re-engineer the Camry to pass.... In the test at the link below several midsize premium cars fail ("the Lexus was the worst in our test" etc.). The only two to pass are the Volvo S60 and the Acura TL (based on the previous generation of Accord).

http://www.iihs.org/news/rss/pr081412.html

benjaminh

The Mazda 6 is almost irrelevant in the midsize sales race. They'll be lucky to sell 50,000 in 2013. Even that would be a big increase over 2012. The new model looks sharp and gets good mpg, but is made in high cost Japan.

berri

I don't see Honda taking number 1 because as you point out they don't have as much capacity. Also, I don't think the company has the financial position of Toyota to throw cash either. Finally, they do little fleet. However, as Nissan continues its expansion of facilities in the US and Mexico, I could see them Altima taking on Camry in a few years. Fusion won't take number 1, but Ford is adding capacity now that Mazda pulled out of Flat Rock, so they may get closer to Accord down the road (if the car doesn't have launch gremlins and pricing doesn't get out of whack). It should get interesting and with all the increasing competition it may be a boon for consumers.

benjaminh

Toyota Camry 36,720
Honda Accord 34,848

Surprisingly close. Honda was blowing the old 2012s out the door with big incentives, but to a substantial degree so was Toyota.

But Honda has had to slow production down as they shifted to producing the all new 2013 Accord. I don't think things will be this close again for a few months, at least. I'm not sure when Honda will be up to full production, but probably not until the first months of 2013. At that point, the real race begins.

berri

Had another thought on this topic. More and more of the transplant production built here is being exported which means the plant with the highest output may not translate to US #1 vehicle sales depending on how the production is sold - domestic versus export.

benjaminh

The Toyota factory in Georgetown, KY, and the Honda factory in Marysville, OH, are actually closer in size and production capacity than I thought.

Toyota can make up to 500,000 vehicles a year in KY, probably 450,000 of those Camrys.

But Honda can make up to 440,000 vehicles at Marysville....And they can import from Japan or make at another US factory more Accords if the demand is there. In other words, it is possible for the Accord to pass the Camry in sales in 2013. It may be unlikely, but it is quite possible.

Here's the official Honda site on the Marysville factory, as well as a quote:

http://ohio.honda.com/manufacturing/map.cfm

"....Originally building only Accords, the plant today is the sole global source of the Honda Accord Coupe, the Acura TL and the Acura RDX, while also building more than 90% of the Honda Accord Sedans sold in America. The plant is highly integrated with metal stamping, welding, painting, plastic injection molding and two final assembly lines under one roof.

Location: Marysville, Ohio
Started Production: November 1982
Plant Size: 3.6 million square feet
Capital Investment: $4 billion
Associates: 4,200

Models in Production:

Acura RDX
Accord Sedan
Accord Coupe
Acura TL Sedan

Annual Production Capacity: 440,000 vehicles"

cannon3

I think the Camry will hold for about 1/2 way through 2013 as #1. I feel Accord will steal the number 1 spot from Toyota. I am also going to predict the new 2013 Ford Fusion will be a huge hit for Ford and move into the #3 spot by the end of 2013. Ford is increasing its production in the United States. Now Ford and GM need to come out with a 2 door version of the Fusion and the Malibu in order to compete in this market segment. And they will also be able to count these numbers as sales of this car line.

phx1021

"The Toyota factory in Georgetown, KY, and the Honda factory in Marysville, OH, are actually closer in size and production capacity than I thought. "

Toyota also builds a significant amount (like 100K) Camrys at the Subaru Plant in Indiana. Honda will need more than Marysville to outproudce Camry. I thought at one point Honda had a plant in Mexico that made some Accords. I don't know if that is still true. Ford is also bringing Fusion production to a second plant (Flatrock) so I expect them to be pushing hard for increased sales.

drjjjj

Competition is indeed heating up and there's better looking cars most would say, but the Camry is the best value! Why? Traditonal engine and drivetrain configuration (no premium req turbo, no super high fuel pressure DI and no clunky belt driven CVT)
Also, it's cheap to insure because so many are sold, cheap to operate because of re-sale, mpg, intial cost and low maintenance! Car is more upscale now and better in every way (was already top seller too)! CRV , Rav and Prius (regular) should be on your list too-can't loose with these either! Thanks, Picky Engineer that bought 2.5 SE with pwr seat as only optionfor $22k+T & L only and couldn't be happier (first new car in decades and I've rented most of the competition) Will drive to 200k as wifes commuter and bet I don't due anything but tires, filter, oil and get 30 mpg avg for 65% hwy!!

hpmctorque

How about in 2015? I say that Camry will continue to retain the lead because, (1) Toyota has made numerous improvements to the 2015 Camry's driving dynamics and styling, and; (2) Toyota has recently demonstrated that it's willing to provide whatever incentives are required for the Camry to retain car sales leadership. The Honda Accord has traditionally been the runner up, and the Nissan Altima has been a strong #3 the last couple of years. In fact, some months the Altima has been the best seller, but never for a full model or calendar year. The Ford Fusion is a strong contender, but not strong enough to unseat the Camry and Accord.

Honda hasn't been willing to discount the Accord aggressively, or to go after fleet sales, just to beat Camry, which is why I believe Camry will continue as the car sales leader.

Do you think any competing model will overtake the Camry for 2015?

hpmctorque

To Host: Please, let's change the year to 2015, and update every year, as long as Toyota remains the world's best or second best selling brand.

benjaminh

I think for retail consumers the Honda Accord will remain the #1 midsize car. But because they sell huge numbers to rental car companies and fleets, Camry will be #1 overall.

berri

I like the Accord, but hasn't Honda sales kind of flattened out compared to a lot of the competition?

fezo

If I'm Honda I keep things as they are and live with the perennial #2 spot. Beats inflating the numbers with fleet sales and if Honda can sell Accords at the rate they are always doing I don't think they'd be wise to throw money at customers. Let Toyota have that.

Even though there are now two Camrys in the fleet I'm much more a Honda guy. That said I'm driving a Mazda 6 - first generation wagon. Were I in the market for a new car I'd buy one. Much more entertaining to drive.

hpmctorque

Toyota seems to be piling on incentives to maintain Camry's leadership in the midsize car market.

benjaminh

The only car that's challenging the Camry at the moment is the Civic. In April, the Civic actually outsold the Camry by a few hundred units, but overall for the year the Camry is still way ahead.