Toyota on the mend?

nippononly

Gagrice, your ability to turn ANYTHING into a conspiracy really impresses me. 15 years ago I had a roommate I thought was the king of that, but you beat the PANTS off him!

There is certainly a profit motive in anyone, particularly a good lawyer, suing their former employer after being laid off, fired, or forced to resign. But let's ignore that, it's inconvenient. :-P

As for Toyota, with all these reports piling up of people "misunderstanding" their vehicles (there are 33 reports at NHTSA of this problem with the Prius brakes, which may be the impetus for the launch of yet another NHTSA investigation of a Toyota model), it is high time they started being proactive by addressing each individual complainant and getting their cars inspected by an independent and trusted authority on motor vehicles. Sitting around doing nothing but saying "we are monitoring it" is not worthy of the corporation newly crowned "King of PR" (a crown only reluctantly given up by GM, its former owner).

Tundra notes: sales volume is down to 75,000/year, 25,000 LOWER than when they were still selling the old, not-quite-fullsize model. The prediction on the blogs at Edmunds is that within a year we will see Toyota announce the termination of this lame duck. Why keep it? The Tacoma is 9/10 the size now - give it a V-8 for the 10 people nationwide that want one for towing and callit a day on the Tundra.

THEN what will they do with the still-underutilized plant in San Antonio, which is still a newborn by auto industry standards?

anythngbutgm

Doesn't the Tacoma come out of NUMMI? Maybe they'll ship that production to San Antonio.

gagrice

Gagrice, your ability to turn ANYTHING into a conspiracy really impresses me.

You have to understand mankind. Everything and I mean everything man does is for self gratification. Whether helping a little old lady across the street or bilking people out of Billions as with Madoff. So I just don't believe that Toyota's leaders are some group of do gooders out to make the World a better place. They are better than GM at manipulating the system from purchasing parts to keeping their workers in line. They have some issues they are trying to hide and It will cost them money to do that. Not sure why Attorney Biller was not happy with $3.7 million severance. Just shows how greedy he is. I don't believe for a minute that attorneys like Tracy, Biller or John Edwards do anything benevolent for their clients. It is all for the mighty dollar and personal recognition. That includes some of the drivers that may have hit the gas peddle instead of the brake and are trying to steal from Toyota.

kdhspyder

It's been announced that NUMMI will be closed. The Tacoma production is going to San Antonio. The Tundras and Sequoias that were at Princeton have already been moved to San Antonio.

While others look for consiracies and dark clouds in every event there are often unforeseen opportunities in every difficulty.

The full-sized truck and full-sized SUV segments are on a fast track back to the 70's when trucks were not commuting vehicles. They were for workers in the fields and on job sites. $70000 trucks with movie theaters and heated seats are an abomination IMO. But that's a different issue. The BOF segments are either disappearing ( midsizers ) or shrinking to those buyers that absolutely need them.

Every maker including Toyota is going to see a 50-70% reduction in the volume of BOF vehicles by 2015 from 2000 levels. Rather than having 3 plants making BOF vehicles ( NUMMI, Princeton and San Antonio ) it makes much more sense to fill up the newest, most modern and most centrally located plant, especially since it's non-union and located in the biggest truck market in the world - Texas.

But that leaves the Princeton plant lacking. Princeton is one of the best plants Toyota has and it's nearly smack dab in the middle of the country. Hello Highlander production. The Highlander joins the Sienna there. The two vehicles are nearly twins. Same drivetrains, similar or same underpinnings, one has sliding doors while the other has hinged doors. But the key benefit to moving the Highlander to Princeton...it gets moved out of Japan with all the negative currency reporting issues. It's far far far less expensive to make any vehicle here in the US simply because of the currency issue. This is an immediate cost saving of 20-25%. With the high volumes of the Sienna and the Highlander now at Princeton it's fully utilized.

NUMMI is allowed to pass away. It was on the corner of the continent, it was older, and it was unionized.

With the sudden and dramatic changes in the NA market every maker had to move with lightning speed to reduce capacity and to rearrange the most efficient facilities. The structure is now in place to have two modern plants at full capacity rather than three at somewhat less than capacity. The silver lining.

maple2

Besides Toyota has the financial strength and long range view to see down the road 5-10-15 yrs. We'll revisit the other models at that time.

what happened to toyota's long range view when they built their shiney new tundra plant in Texas? Guess they didnt see that spanking coming in the full size truck segment game huh? :P

there will always be a market for full size trucks, smaller market? probly,but still a lucrative segment. toyota knows that. thats why they tried AGAIN to break in this market to get a piece of the pie....but again... :lemon:

houdini1

Hmmm...now remind me again what is the best selling vehicle in the U.S. these last umpteen years...hint: It's a full size pick up !!

explorerx4

so this feature cuts power when you want it, but doesn't when you need it to.
sounds great. enjoy it.

kdhspyder

Nope like the rest of the BOF makers they were blindsided by the collapse of the BOF market segments. After spending $1.2 Billion on that plant and with it coming on stream just as the market for these vehicles headed back to the dark ages the CEO and other deciders were sent to the coal mines in Japan. The whole crew was kicked out.

But now that it's there and it's the newest most modern plant in the US it will be used and it will be filled up. It will also turn a profit too simply because it has all the Tacomas, all the Tundras and all the Sequoias. Based on the 2008 numbers that would be nearly 300,000 units being pumped through that plant.

Since Toyota now owns the midsized truck market it will primarily be a Tacoma plant for NA. The Tundra and Sequoia will fill it out. Now that's a flexible quick-thinking switch.

You're right there will always be a market for trucks. There was a market in the 40s and 60s and 80s and there will be next decade. Now they don't have to build as many Tundra's in order to cover the Fixed Cost nut. The Tacoma does that for the corporation TYVM.

But even at that $1.2 Billion price tag they got one very solid year out of it before the market crashed. Maybe instead of paying it off in 6-7 yrs it will take 8-9 years. It's not like they can't afford it. With $50 billion in liquid assets $1 Billion is a burp even if they had to eat all of it which won't happen now. The Tacoma guarantees that TYVM.

kdhspyder

Yep the F150 was the No 1 selling vehicle but now it's slipping, with a bullet to the No 5 slot. This year the Camry will pass the F150 as the No 1 selling vehicle. The Corolla is hot on the Camry's heels.

The Siverado 1500 is already down to #4 or #5 and the Ram has or will soon fall off the chart.

The NA buying public has spoken.

elias

Toyota has made press releases & letters indicating exactly what mcdoggy dawg said.

as for 'other manufacturers' having this same issue, no way.
I bet that mcdawg has brake-torqued a few vehicles too.

Q: how do you know when a software engineer is totally wrong?
A: when he says "that case will never happen in the field, so we don't need to test it"

gagrice

This year the Camry will pass the F150 as the No 1 selling vehicle.

Not a chance in H*** that will happen. F series through November 09 sits at 365,416 The Camry is WAAAAY back at 321,878. Unless they sell 43k Camry's in Dec and Ford sells no trucks. In fact the loss for the year to date is about equal between number one selling Ford F series and the Camry. F trucks off 22.9% and Camry down 21.9%. Your hatred of BOF vehicles does not change the Facts you love. Full size trucks will be around for more than just work trucks as long as you and I are around. Like you said the Tacoma is 9/10ths the size of a full size. Hardly an economy truck suited for work only. Many people cannot afford a separate truck for work. So the crew cabs have become extremely popular. I am sure they stole many SUV sales.

210delray

I wouldn't characterize it as "hate," but rather as reality. Back in calendar 2004, the F-series had sales of over 900,000 units. Camry sales have certainly not been cut by more than half since 2004.

Also back then F-Series, Silverado, and Ram were 1, 2, and 3.

kdhspyder

C'mon bud, you're usually more up to date on what's going on than what you stated in your post. Ask steve. He'll verify that I'm right.

Here's a hint: reread your post and then my post word-for-word and see what the difference is. Then do some research

Hint No 2: The answer is right here on Edmunds.

My post is exactly correct with no modifications. I wouldn't have made that post if I didn't already know your objection and have this answer for it. :shades:

nippononly

You are being ridiculous, my man. F150 and Silverado/Sierra are still #1 and #2 on the annual sales list, and are selling close to (or over) 400K/year.

So given those facts, you changed the subject away from Tundra's 75K showing and instead focused on the decrease in full-size pickup sales in the last decade.

That is true, but they are FAR from "headed back to the dark ages" or "on a fast track back to the 70's when trucks were not commuting vehicles". In fact, when the housing market picks back up and new housing starts rise again the full-size pickup market will go back to 1.5 million annual sales or so, certainly worth breaking into if you can.

But Toyota did what it always does when it debuted the Tundra - it made it the "$70000 abomination ith movie theaters and heated seats" that you apparently despise so much.

All the contractors went right on ordering the $18-20K F150s with the vinyl floors and seats, and Toyota was shut out. Everyone in the industry called it, why not just concede they were right rather than trying all this diversion?

It DOES make sense to use San Antonio for Tacoma production now, but with all three models combined they will not get to the 250K units' annual production capacity San Antonio was built for. And NUMMI was right next to the Pacific Ocean and the second biggest port on the west coast - perfect for exports if they wanted. Losing it was a necessary move for Toyota not to lose their shirts more than they already have in this down year, but it was nothing more.

stever

The answer is right here on Edmunds

I haven't seen any year end numbers, but I've been preoccupied with travel and stuff, and haven't been keeping up with AutoObserver and Inside Line too well lately.

If you have links, please post them.

kdhspyder

OMG another!!

Write the words I wrote and look at them closely and do some investigations here at Edmunds. What I wrote is exactly correct. You're misreading what I wrote, you only think that you read it correctly. My statements are absolutely accurate and correct.

In 2008 the Tacoma and Tundra and Sequoia combined for 300,000 units of sales. That's probably the topmost goal now given the new environment of reduced expectations for every maker. They won't make it in this disasterous year but beginning next year they should be trying to get back to that level. That would be an industry level of 13.5 MM units annually instead of 10.5 MM as expected for this year ( stats also to be found herein at Edmunds ).

kdhspyder

Here are the Decades Winners and Losers as per Edmunds crackerjack statistical team. :surprise:

http://www.autoobserver.com/2009/12/the-decades-winners-and-losers-the-data.html- - - #more

Top 10 models for 2009 ( expected next Tues )
1 Camry
2 Accord
3 F150
4 Corolla
5 Civic
6 Silverado 1500
7 Altima
8 CR-V
9 Impala
10 Fusion

Edmunds has been doing the analysis this way for the last several months.

Now to go back to what I wrote.

The Camry is going to outsell the F150 and be the No 1 MODEL for 2009. It's also going to outsell the F250 and the F350 and all the individual F-MODELS. Ditto the Siverado 1500 and Silvy 2500 and Silvy 3500 MODELS.

gagrice

Again you can make numbers say what you want them to say. The "F" series PU Trucks are STILL NUMBER ONE. Notice they try to split the varieties for F series to say what they want. Why not split the Camry into the various models including the Hybrid, V6 or 4 cylinder? You split the Camry into groups we will split the F series into groups. We can play your little numbers game. They did the same thing with the C4C and split the Escape into FWD, AWD and Hybrid to give the numbers they wanted to see. When IN FACT the Escape outsold them all. And How do they know the final numbers for 2009 when we have a day left?

nippononly

I guess your method is to carry on a monologue, while appearing to be in a dialogue by hitting "reply" to other posters. But in fact, you are not replying, you are extending your own monologue while failing to discuss what they were saying.

I hadn't figured that out until recently - before that I thought you were attempting to respond to people and thinking yourself misunderstood.

But now that I know you are not, I will agree with what you said while standing by my original point.

Weird. So my question for you, should you choose to actually respond to it, is this: do you consider Toyota's goal of 300K max annual sales of Tacoma/Tundra/Sequoia (and they will be pushed to reach that) to be a significant one, given that Ford sells 30% more F150s alone (disregarding Rangers and Expeditions) and will probably sell 50-60% more within two years? Or is it just possible that Toyota has failed to compete in the full-size truck segment, despite its very best efforts?

kdhspyder

I never said anything about the F-Series. I was quoting what Edmunds is now reporting on a monthly basis. Model Sales.

They do split out the Corolla Matrix from the Corolla so the methodology is accurate. You act as if I did this on my own. This is the premier auto industry site in the nation doing the analysis based on its crackerjack statistical team.

What I wrote is exactly correct.

kdhspyder

steve asked to post the link...I was responding to his request but misclicked the entry of the reply.

You other two guys were just arguing based on what you thought you read.

gagrice

What I wrote is exactly correct.

If it is right in your mind, stick with it. I call BS. And Edmund's is playing the game. This time it may make you happy, next time it may not. They do show the Ford Focus and Escape number one and two in the C4C program. While other statisticians have the Corolla and Civic one and two. So you can take your pick. I say Ford PU trucks are still number one in sales. And the source I use ClubLexus agrees.

http://www.clublexus.com/forums/car-chat/467115-november-2009-vehicles-sales.htm- l

kdhspyder

Now that you mention it.

The San Antonio plant could handle 250K+ as it's configured today. It has the room for making up to 500K units with no additional expansion, simply more equipment within the walls. I doubt if they'll ever expand that big unless the market changes dramatically.

The point of my post on the reconfiguration of the plants was that with the current lineup of 3 BOF vehicles they could be using the full capacity of the plant as its setup right now. This would bring the plant to breakeven soon even in a down or recovering market.

What Ford's stats are for the F150 has no bearing on this AFAICS. The F150 prpbably will outsell all three Toyota BOFs combined, but there would be nothing new and remarkable about that.

nippononly

So IOW you don't wish to respond to my question, eh? ;-)

Don't worry about it, that's fine. I am personally of the opinion that Toyota should stick to what it has historically done best, smaller vehicles like the ones it sells in Japan. Leave the big haulers to the Americans who STILL seem to know best what Americans want in thse types of vehicles (and that may be ALL they know best!).

Although I think Toyota makes a pretty darn good minivan, probably the best value among all minivans on the market. THOSE they should keep making, and I will suspend my disbelief regarding the 2011 Sienna SE trim until it has been made available for driving.

Too bad Toyota can't offer a small pickup again - the unibody concept truck (was it the A-BAT or something like that?) looked spot-on to me. They will miss the boat on that one (the small unibody pickup market) just as surely as I sit here typing - other automakers will get the jump on them. Indeed, Honda should make a go of that - just rip the back off a Crosstour and start the pricing at $18-20K.

gagrice

No I knew from the start the word game you were playing, cherry picking a certain model to use. Politicians do that all the time. I suppose car salesmen do the same.

Another little tidbit. The Escape topped the RAV4 by a large margin this year.

kdhspyder

I don't disagree that the F-Series ( in toto ) outsell the Camry. I've never disagreed with that. But that was not the statement I made based on Edmunds new way of analyzing the data.

BTW it does make the entire picture a lot different than one would have expected. BOF vehicle models are falling by the wayside faster than even I thought.

If you want to argue the point take it up with the crackerjack statistical team at Edmunds here. These are their numbers. My statement still stands as absolutely accurate.

kdhspyder

ouch... and?

gagrice

But that was not the statement I made based on Edmunds new way of analyzing the data.

You need to use more than one source. Just a quick glance at Edmund's top ten shows a few glaring errors. The Escape with 153,888 through November is ahead of Impala and Fusion on the list from Edmund's. In fact the Camry has sold more in 11 months than they are projecting for the year. Making the whole list suspect. Nobody's perfect.

kdhspyder

They probably took out the Solara from the stats making the totals lower as opposed to the way Toyota reports them. Ask them. It's their way of doing the analysis now.

selenagomez

What about prius ? :P

gagrice

What about prius ?

They are on a downhill slide. All the geeks own one now.

kdhspyder

Ahhh this question:
Weird. So my question for you, should you choose to actually respond to it, is this: do you consider Toyota's goal of 300K max annual sales of Tacoma/Tundra/Sequoia (and they will be pushed to reach that) to be a significant one, given that Ford sells 30% more F150s alone (disregarding Rangers and Expeditions) and will probably sell 50-60% more within two years? Or is it just possible that Toyota has failed to compete in the full-size truck segment, despite its very best efforts?

IOW does the fact that Toyota may only be looking to sell 300K BOF units from its NA operations is that significant as compared to the F-Series? I don't know and personally I don't think it matters that much. The F-Series has been the leader for nearly 20 yrs. Whether Toyota challenges the leader in terms of sales volume - or not - doesn't matter much IMO. The BOF segments are shrinking segments.

Fighting for leadership here might be akin to arguing over who has the best seating on the deck chairs of the Titanic.

But Toyota still has a massive investment in San Antonio to amortize. Now running enough volume through this plant to justify its existence is very very significant in the small corporate financial realm of Toyota. Yes this is hugely significant - for Toyota and its shareholders.

kdhspyder

Nothing new to see here. Worldwide production and sales in FY 2009 will be 20% higher than the best year ever. Hey that sounds like a record year. :shades: Breakout the bubbly. Damn, life is great isn't it?

ignitepassion

Toyota's 2009 auto sales in Asia to top those in Japan for 1st time

Wednesday 30th December, 04:06 AM JST

NAGOYA —

Auto sales by Toyota Motor Corp in Asia other than Japan will outnumber those in the domestic market in 2009 for the first time due mainly to a steep sales increase in China, industry sources say. Toyota sold some 1,354,000 units in Asia in the first 11 months of this year, up 4.5% over a year earlier, in comparison with 1,256,000 vehicles in Japan.

The sales growth in Asia was led by a 20.7% increase to 622,000 units in China. Sales in China are likely to reach around 700,000 units for the entire year, they said.

The Asian market therefore is expected to become the second-largest market for Toyota in 2009 after North America where the automaker sold 1,770,000 vehicles in the January-November period, the sources said.

In November alone, sales showed a recovery also in India, Thailand and Vietnam, the sources added.

http://www.japantoday.com/category/business/view/toyotas-2009-auto-sales-in-asia- -to-top-those-in-japan-for-1st-time

Decline eh?

explorerx4

those numbers show why NA sales are so important.

anythngbutgm

Just what I suspected...

Truth be told, the SE feels most like Toyota's shot at the Honda Odyssey, the segment's most dynamic minivan.

link title

stever

Good to see the minivan isn't quite dead yet.

We gotta rename this discussion....

andre1969

We gotta rename this discussion....

How about "Toyota on the mend for 2010?"

It kinda sorta rhymes.

210delray

Sounds fine with me.

stever

We like it. :shades:

You have to pronounce it "twenty ten" though. (2010)

im_brentwood

Biggest problem I have with Toyota right now is we can't get enough product. I mean, we're losing more than a few sales because we don't have the product.

Our store sells a couple thousand new Toyotas a year.

Guess how many RAV4s we have in ground stock? None. Highlanders? 2 Siennas? 1

kenym

Good Choice :shades:

nippononly

The question is who will drop out of the minivan market next. I am sure Toyota will hang in there until the end, and if it were the only one selling minivans it would be doing a very brisk business indeed! That would be what, 400,000 sales a year just of that model?

stever

Nissan and VW? I don't see the Mazda, Kia or Dodge going away. GM has the full size vans and Ford may have a sleeper coming along with the Transit Connect.

obyone

What about Forerunners, Tundras, and Sequoias?

lemko

...if Chrysler dropped minivans after practically inventing the segment?

nippononly

Au contraire, I read just recently that Kia was thinking of dropping their minivan, which has been less than successful (no wait, was that Hyundai? Same difference?).

As for the Mazda, I really think we should start calling these MPVs microvans or MPVs, to distinguish them from the minivans, which really have nothing "mini" about them any more...

Chrysler is the one who singlehandedly shrunk this segment two years ago by dropping their fleet special, SWB vans. Maybe they are thinking they should drop the rest of the vans, who knows.

And Nissan and VW are DEFINITELY two automakers who would do well to consider dropping their minivans. Hasn't Nissan already made initial rumblings about doing just that?

But the big three are Toyota, Honda, and Chrysler. Everyone else is pretty much just a bit player, hardly worth considering in a discussion of the future of the minivan IMO.

lemko

Well, isn't the VW van really a Mopar van anyway?

stever

I could see Kia dropping their minivan but in favor of a better one (lighter and more fuel efficient). Or one under the Hyundai name. I think they have the deep pockets to continue with one, and be a Toyota fighter on price and warranty.

VW's Routan. Yeah, it's a Caravan with better interior materials I guess, but less flexibility in the seating. Just don't get that one at all.

Chrysler could survive on Caravans and Ram trucks. Let Fiat handle the sedans.

With Toyota trying to cover all the minivan bases, why not toss a hybrid in the mix too?

kdhspyder

Based on nameplate sales the leading autos for 2009 were...

Camry 356K
Corolla 296K
Accord 290K
Civic... 260K
Altima 204K
Fusion 181K