Not so amazing. I will wager we will see that happen in this country within ten years. Only the Chinese bringing ultra-cheap cars here can avert that outcome.
The Japanese car market has been declining for a while, partly as a result of the decade-long economic crisis they had when their real estate bubble went POP! And our real estate market is doing what right now, exactly? While our president is doing what right now exactly to our national debt? :-/
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
"I would say the same for Mazda, and I am sure Ford, if it has any sense, will steadily increase its share in Mazda until it calls all the shots (then, if it is wise, it will let Mazda have a lot of autonomy in designing and building cars, and tweak many of them to be Fords, much as they have already started doing)."
I don;t see how Ford is going to increase its stake in Mazda at least for now because Ford is still in the red and Mazda has been in the black profit wise for awhile now. The Japanese would never let Ford buy more stake in Mazda unless Mazda starts losing money like crazy again like they did in the mid 90's but Mazda would have to mess up alot in order to do that and I don;t see them doing that. I should also add Ford is not calling the shots for Mazda anymore because Mazda has a Japanese CEO now. The only mess-up on Product that Mazda has made of late is on the 08 Tribute which looks like a 1996 Mazda just with boxier styling.
Your right though the next 5 years is crucial because they can ill-afford to make mistakes on their products: the 09 Mz 6 sedan interior looks like a winner to me from what I've seen of it. Anyways, Mazda has kept up good pace with Mitsu in US sales this year: Mazda has gained 12K units this year vs last year(152K vs 140K units)and Mitsu has gained 13K units over last year's total. Mazda and Mitsu is basically taking market share from the Domestics but not from Honda, Toyota, and Nissan just from analazing this years US sales charts by brand/make.
adjusted expected annual sales downward again for '07. I wonder if the market will break 16 million sales this year, with everything looking so gloomy in the credit markets and people supposedly hanging onto more of their money per recent consumer surveys.
The peak year for sales was 2000, which is falling further and further behind us here...part of that could be the delayed effect of the MASSIVE incentivized giveaways (including GM's now-famed 0% APR offer) after 9/11 causing people to replace their vehicles early, thereby pulling some car sales forward a few years.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I don't know about everyone else but financing a new car doesn't seem all that attractive to me any more. I continue to be in the market for a two or three year old car that has been kept up.
Styling and performance wise I believe we are headed for a slump.
I agree boaz47. I will be in the market this winter or spring and like you, I'm looking used. Something that allows me to pay it off in 2-3 years but will last me 5 years.
I don't see the auto market returning to 2000 sales levels any time soon. This is especially bad news for the domestics as they still rely too much on trucks and SUVs for profits. Also you'll probably see more plant closings as well. Believe it or not, it is probably better if we were to lose an automotive company or two. Or at least see more consolidation of brands.
But instead of that, they expect a couple of Chinese and/or Indian car companies to enter the market in the next five years! Not to mention the long-hailed return of Alfa next year! (and possibly Fiat a year or two later?)
How crowded can the market get before it just implodes?
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Don't be too worried. It took the Koreans a decade to make any inroads in the US market. From what i have seen,the Chinese are likely to have worse cars than when the Koreans started.
Alfa isn't going to sell many cars. At best,they will be a boutique brand.
The Europeans have more brands for sale than we do. They seem to be able to make it work. Car companies are just going to have to adjust to selling fewer cars. The trend will be away from selling more cars. Instead,the focus will be on profit per unit.
Problem is that I can get a loan at 5% for a new car at my credit union. But for used cars 2003 or newer, including 2007 sold as used, the interest is 6.5%, plus I would get fewer warranty miles/years. If you add that in as "cost", you'd have to think twice about buying a used Buick against a new Hyundai if the prices are relatively close.
Well, you have 2 separate issues here. 1 can to domestics do more with less?
Not in the near future. Simply put,they cannot shed enough excess capacity and enough excess people to become profitable that way. The Unions and local gov'ts stand in their way there. They also have too many dealers and too many underperforming brands. It would probably take a decade or more for GM and Ford to become comfortable as much smaller companies. Unless they decide to got the BK route. The next question is,will the US auto sales eclipse 2000. Also not likely. The US market isn't getting any bigger. If anything,it will shrink in the near future as the baby boomers quit buying cars. there simply aren't enough new buyers coming in to replace them. Any new automakers coming in are simply going to be dividing a smaller pie.
From what I've seen and heard, Gen Y or whatever they are calling the one after Gen X is almost as big as the baby boomer generation. That is a whole new group just reaching the age of being able to drive. In ten years, as the car-buying power of the boomers themselves begins to wane, this new Gen Y will be replacing them.
But I think that less and less Americans will have enough disposable income to be able to buy new cars in the decades to come. Which is why I think we won't see the numbers take off again until we start getting $5995 Chery and Tata specials for sale here.
As for the American car companies, they just have to focus on making profitable sales, even if they are much smaller in the future. If they can derive profit from vehicle sales, something neither Ford nor GM have been able to do consistently in a VERY long time, they will be much better off.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Trust me,Gen Y isn't anywhere near as big as the baby boomer generation. Plus, Gen Y doesn't have the income of the boomers. The boomers are what keeps BMW,Mercedes,Toyota,Porsche etc in high profits.
I don't forsee any real changes in disposable income for most Americans. Cars will continue to get more expensive,but leasing will take the sting out of that. I can't see a situation where a person would rather buy a $7995 chinese car rather than lease a $20,000 Honda.
I agree that the American automakers need to focus on profitability. However,with their current structures and overheads(esp healthcare) that is going to be really tough.
Shoot, for $7,995, I'd rather buy a ten-year old Buick or even an older Toyota or Honda. If I'd have to lease any $20K car, I must be in fierocious finacial trouble. I'd have much higher fiscal priorities to take care of than a new car.
ten year-old car = constant mechanical/reliability problems.
If you're careful about what you pick, an older car can be an excellent finacial decision and give you many years of trouble-free driving. I hardly spend any money on my 1988 Buick Park Avenue and it is extremely reliable and fuel-efficient to boot!
One or two car (or lease) payments can pay for a lot of repairs.
My daily driver isn't driven daily but it's 10 this year. The commuter ride is 8 years old and has 119,000 miles. The biggest expense for either in recent years has been new tires. Cars run better than they did in the old days.
Well one would assume a Buick, would be more reliable than let's say some 10 yr. old Euro cars. The price to fix a Buick vs. a Volvo, is less expensive as well.
Depends on where you live. I wouldn't say Volvos are rare around here, but they are uncommon. Buicks of my Park Avenue's vintage are plentiful. Heck, one block over is a lady with a gray Electra similar to my car and I see a lot of Park Aves and LeSabres of its vintage in various condition as I drive around the city. Ten year-old Buicks are dirt common.
As far as part about WILL NOT pay the price for a Euro car, you got that right. Shoot, buying the car is easy. Keeping up with a tempermental car is another. I think the Lexus LS is a nicer-looking and far more reliable car than the S-Class Mecedes, but even Lexi are becoming ridiculously priced. Buick is the sensible buy. Cadillac is my ceiling. Anything beyond that is a colossal waste of money.
I'm definately from the NE as I live in the City of Philadelphia. I didn't say Volvos were rare, just uncommon. I'll see plenty of Lexi, Mercedes, BMWs, Cadillacs, Acuras, Infinitis, to every Volvo. Maybe they're more common in the suburbs.
Honestly it's rare here in Western, Michigan to see a Volvo of any age. I do see a lot of Saabs though. I think I've seen only one new S80 so far. It was a distance from me but it looked like one of the new ones.
I agree with lemko, those old Park Avenues are great daily drivers and are inexpensive to maintain.
I don't see that many newer volvos in the beantown except the xc. There are plenty of 850s, and v70s. I see more newer 9-3s than the s60s. But if you cross the river to cambridge, that's a whole different scene.
I know, Volvo wants to be a style leader now instead of the solidly-built cars of old.
My boss recently traded her mid-90s 850 wagon for a new S40, and gripes about it all the time. Could be her last Volvo. And she has been a Volvo person forever, before the 850 there was a 240, etc etc.
I just wonder what might happen to Volvo if/when it changes hands.
It's funny that even as the world's carmakers consolidate into a smaller and smaller group (meaning the number of actual corporate entities owning or controlling all the different brands), the number of models sold and the number of niches they are trying to cater to now proliferates rapidly...
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Well, if you go way up by Traverse City I know of one (1) Volvo up there... A friend of mine owns it.
Is that the same person I know?
I'm thinking that it is .... if so, could you email me the email address? Would like to get in touch.
Just to make this post on-topic -- my uncle, before he passed, used to buy and restore old (70's / 80's) Volvos. Not restore to concours condition, mind you, restore to the point where they became his daily drivers.
My boss recently traded her mid-90s 850 wagon for a new S40, and gripes about it all the time. Could be her last Volvo. And she has been a Volvo person forever, before the 850 there was a 240, etc etc.
What is it about the S40 that she doesn't like? The S40 is an entry level car,coming out of an 850 she probably should have looked at an S60.
I have a Volvo and I must admit to seeing lots of them in the Washington, D.C. area, but coastal big cities in the U.S were always their core market. And those cities were always more amenable to imported products of any kind. And I still see lots of M-B, BMW, Audi, VW products. But for the mainstream, it's the Asians for sure. And Lexus/Acura/Infinity do well too. Almost every time I see a new Big 3 car, it has the telltale barcodes on the windows- rental cars most probably.
BTW, that reminds me, what's with Volvo's plans I just read about to stop selling the S60, in favor of the S80? They decided they didn't need a midsize sedan any more? That's going to be a first.
My boss is a new empty-nester, and I guess she figured she didn't need as large a car any more, now that it's just her and her husband.
She thinks it feels tacky next to the "solid" Volvos she is used to, but she DOES say she likes the design details inside and out, especially the super-skinny center stack (what does Volvo call that again?)
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
BTW, that reminds me, what's with Volvo's plans I just read about to stop selling the S60, in favor of the S80? They decided they didn't need a midsize sedan any more? That's going to be a first.
That is entirely incorrect. The S40 is being discontinued. A new S60 will debut in 18 months.
it's a 3 way tie between volvo, prius and bicycles. I would not park a hummer or any giant suv on the street overnight in many sections of the republic. However, if your 240 wagon stalled in the middle of the street, scores of people will come out and help you.
there is no marketing support for the C30. The thing has got the makings of a superstar and yet Volvo releases it with zero fanfare and no mention of it to the buying public. I mean the thing has a mind blowing array of options, trim packages, color combos, wheel designs all in one cool looking bankvault and yet Volvo isn't letting the buying public know about it!
Example, there was one sitting at the entrance to a Volvo dealer in Nashua. The car was gone not more than 2 days later. This was 2 weeks ago and there hasn't been another put in its place yet :mad: So not only are they not marketing it through the airwaves, but the dealers, even the ones up here in Volvo, USA, New England don't even put the car in the publics' eye!
Top it off with the public knowledge of Ford trying to sell them off like some kind of dead weight and you'd think the suits at Volvo were trying to drive the brand in to the ground.
C'mon guys, get with the program. The C30 has the makings of success and you guys are treating it like some kind of mistake that you wish you could take back...
The dealer can't get any manuals right now. They have ordered them but none have come in. I want to drive a V 2.0 with a manual so I can get the full experience of the dynamic chassis but none to be had. I need to check with the other volvo dealer in my company but they are much further away from my house so I haven't gotten over there yet.
I'd like to try one with the 6-speed as well. Drove the S40-T5 with the stick and it was great. I know these cars are on the heavy side, but still it was comfortable, smooth and quiet (Great seats BTW)
I just can;t figure out why Volvo (and its dealers) acts like their ashamed of building the car. :confuse:
Comments
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070507/AUTO01/705070321/1148- /AUTO01
Now that is absolutely amazing. A whole country reduces buying new cars. :surprise:
-Rocky
The Japanese car market has been declining for a while, partly as a result of the decade-long economic crisis they had when their real estate bubble went POP! And our real estate market is doing what right now, exactly? While our president is doing what right now exactly to our national debt? :-/
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
-Rocky
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070723/AUTO01/707230315/1148- &imw=Y
Damn it GM, y'all need to get that 2-Mode hybrid to market ASAP. :mad:
-Rocky
I don;t see how Ford is going to increase its stake in Mazda at least for now because Ford is still in the red and Mazda has been in the black profit wise for awhile now. The Japanese would never let Ford buy more stake in Mazda unless Mazda starts losing money like crazy again like they did in the mid 90's but Mazda would have to mess up alot in order to do that and I don;t see them doing that. I should also add Ford is not calling the shots for Mazda anymore because Mazda has a Japanese CEO now. The only mess-up on Product that Mazda has made of late is on the 08 Tribute which looks like a 1996 Mazda just with boxier styling.
Your right though the next 5 years is crucial because they can ill-afford to make mistakes on their products: the 09 Mz 6 sedan interior looks like a winner to me from what I've seen of it. Anyways, Mazda has kept up good pace with Mitsu in US sales this year: Mazda has gained 12K units this year vs last year(152K vs 140K units)and Mitsu has gained 13K units over last year's total. Mazda and Mitsu is basically taking market share from the Domestics but not from Honda, Toyota, and Nissan just from analazing this years US sales charts by brand/make.
The peak year for sales was 2000, which is falling further and further behind us here...part of that could be the delayed effect of the MASSIVE incentivized giveaways (including GM's now-famed 0% APR offer) after 9/11 causing people to replace their vehicles early, thereby pulling some car sales forward a few years.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Styling and performance wise I believe we are headed for a slump.
I don't see the auto market returning to 2000 sales levels any time soon. This is especially bad news for the domestics as they still rely too much on trucks and SUVs for profits. Also you'll probably see more plant closings as well. Believe it or not, it is probably better if we were to lose an automotive company or two. Or at least see more consolidation of brands.
How crowded can the market get before it just implodes?
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
It took the Koreans a decade to make any inroads in the US market.
From what i have seen,the Chinese are likely to have worse cars than when the Koreans started.
Alfa isn't going to sell many cars.
At best,they will be a boutique brand.
The Europeans have more brands for sale than we do.
They seem to be able to make it work.
Car companies are just going to have to adjust to selling fewer cars.
The trend will be away from selling more cars.
Instead,the focus will be on profit per unit.
My guess is we won't see a year that beats 2000 until some of those cheapie manufactureers start selling here.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
1 can to domestics do more with less?
Not in the near future.
Simply put,they cannot shed enough excess capacity and enough excess people to become profitable that way.
The Unions and local gov'ts stand in their way there.
They also have too many dealers and too many underperforming brands.
It would probably take a decade or more for GM and Ford to become comfortable as much smaller companies.
Unless they decide to got the BK route.
The next question is,will the US auto sales eclipse 2000.
Also not likely.
The US market isn't getting any bigger.
If anything,it will shrink in the near future as the baby boomers quit buying cars. there simply aren't enough new buyers coming in to replace them.
Any new automakers coming in are simply going to be dividing a smaller pie.
But I think that less and less Americans will have enough disposable income to be able to buy new cars in the decades to come. Which is why I think we won't see the numbers take off again until we start getting $5995 Chery and Tata specials for sale here.
As for the American car companies, they just have to focus on making profitable sales, even if they are much smaller in the future. If they can derive profit from vehicle sales, something neither Ford nor GM have been able to do consistently in a VERY long time, they will be much better off.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Plus, Gen Y doesn't have the income of the boomers.
The boomers are what keeps BMW,Mercedes,Toyota,Porsche etc in high profits.
I don't forsee any real changes in disposable income for most Americans.
Cars will continue to get more expensive,but leasing will take the sting out of that.
I can't see a situation where a person would rather buy a $7995 chinese car rather than lease a $20,000 Honda.
I agree that the American automakers need to focus on profitability.
However,with their current structures and overheads(esp healthcare) that is going to be really tough.
Personally, I'd rather lease a new car for a couple of years than spend money buying and maintaining a 10 yr old car.
ten year-old car = constant mechanical/reliability problems.
If you're careful about what you pick, an older car can be an excellent finacial decision and give you many years of trouble-free driving. I hardly spend any money on my 1988 Buick Park Avenue and it is extremely reliable and fuel-efficient to boot!
My daily driver isn't driven daily but it's 10 this year. The commuter ride is 8 years old and has 119,000 miles. The biggest expense for either in recent years has been new tires. Cars run better than they did in the old days.
-Rocky
Still, you see alot more 10 yr old Volvo's on the road than 10 yr old Buicks.
Why exactly?
a new Euro car is much safer, much better looking,has better comfort,performance,looks, and a warranty.
There is ZERO comparision between the 2 unless you cannot or will not spend the money for a new Euro car.
As far as part about WILL NOT pay the price for a Euro car, you got that right. Shoot, buying the car is easy. Keeping up with a tempermental car is another. I think the Lexus LS is a nicer-looking and far more reliable car than the S-Class Mecedes, but even Lexi are becoming ridiculously priced. Buick is the sensible buy. Cadillac is my ceiling. Anything beyond that is a colossal waste of money.
There you can't throw a rock without hitting 10 old Volvo's
As for your spending habits,to each his own.
I agree with lemko, those old Park Avenues are great daily drivers and are inexpensive to maintain.
-Rocky
If Ford manages to sell Volvo, I wonder if the resultant changes will turn traditional Volvo buyers off their favorite brand...
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
We no longer make slow boxes for them to buy anyway.
My boss recently traded her mid-90s 850 wagon for a new S40, and gripes about it all the time. Could be her last Volvo. And she has been a Volvo person forever, before the 850 there was a 240, etc etc.
I just wonder what might happen to Volvo if/when it changes hands.
It's funny that even as the world's carmakers consolidate into a smaller and smaller group (meaning the number of actual corporate entities owning or controlling all the different brands), the number of models sold and the number of niches they are trying to cater to now proliferates rapidly...
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Is that the same person I know?
I'm thinking that it is .... if so, could you email me the email address? Would like to get in touch.
Just to make this post on-topic -- my uncle, before he passed, used to buy and restore old (70's / 80's) Volvos. Not restore to concours condition, mind you, restore to the point where they became his daily drivers.
Now, if THAT ain't a mouthful; The People's Republic of Cambridge!!!
What is it about the S40 that she doesn't like?
The S40 is an entry level car,coming out of an 850 she probably should have looked at an S60.
My boss is a new empty-nester, and I guess she figured she didn't need as large a car any more, now that it's just her and her husband.
She thinks it feels tacky next to the "solid" Volvos she is used to, but she DOES say she likes the design details inside and out, especially the super-skinny center stack (what does Volvo call that again?)
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Floating something or other I think.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
That is entirely incorrect.
The S40 is being discontinued.
A new S60 will debut in 18 months.
Example, there was one sitting at the entrance to a Volvo dealer in Nashua. The car was gone not more than 2 days later. This was 2 weeks ago and there hasn't been another put in its place yet :mad: So not only are they not marketing it through the airwaves, but the dealers, even the ones up here in Volvo, USA, New England don't even put the car in the publics' eye!
Top it off with the public knowledge of Ford trying to sell them off like some kind of dead weight and you'd think the suits at Volvo were trying to drive the brand in to the ground.
C'mon guys, get with the program. The C30 has the makings of success and you guys are treating it like some kind of mistake that you wish you could take back...
But...
The dealer can't get any manuals right now. They have ordered them but none have come in. I want to drive a V 2.0 with a manual so I can get the full experience of the dynamic chassis but none to be had. I need to check with the other volvo dealer in my company but they are much further away from my house so I haven't gotten over there yet.
I just can;t figure out why Volvo (and its dealers) acts like their ashamed of building the car. :confuse: