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How The 35 mpg Law By 2020 Will Affect The Cars We Will Drive
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Fuel economy isn't going to be as big a deal as you think, if they are willing to put 2 mode hybrid trannys in these cars. Volume production should keep the cost to a minimum
And insofar as the fuel economy angst, Blu-Tek technology exists in diesels -- all GM has to do is licence it from Mercedes: technical risk: ZERO!
If they want to beg for regulatory relief, then let them relax the diesel pollution standards to harmonize them with EU ... GM can then licence the VW / Audi TDI, as well as the plain Mercedes CDI. Again, technical risk is zero.
-hh
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
How much is enough, and why?
If we switch to natural gas, we will still be consuming a non-renewable energy source that produces greenhouse gas emissions.
If we can manage to produce massive quantities of cellulosic ethanol, then I like E85's chances. But that's a long way off, if ever. We need to diversify our automotive energy sources as much as possible, as soon as possible.
Oh yeah, and my original remark was slightly tongue in cheek, as there were no specific obligations agreed to by the G8 leaders on Tuesday, and no-one expects them ever to have the courage or the foresight to actually oblige themselves in any specific way, so automakers don't really need to worry...
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
You are right about the tremendous supply - but it is in the ground or under the oceans.
The problem is how do you deliver it economically? I live in NH and the vast majority of the state does not gas-lines. The areas that do have natural gas, usually run short on supply near the end of the winter. So there is no extra supply for more people to run there houses, never mind running their vehicles on them too.
LNG also comes into the area on tankers, and the LNG is stored in tanks. There are a lot of safety and terrorist concerns even at present levels of use.
We use many fuels right now to heat our homes, and power our cars ... You can't eliminate any unless you have a viable - economic and quick way to do so. It's just theory and dreaming to state otherwise.
Which is why any energy plan must include drilling oil and more refineries to address short term issues (next 20 years). The alternative solutions will take time to get integrated into our society.
When the oil supply jolts of the 70s came along, we did nothing at all to plan for our energy future or protect ourselves from the whims of OPEC etc. Do you really want that to be our only reaction AGAIN this time?
It is time to diversify, not intensify our production of one fuel, ESPECIALLY not the one that has got us in so much trouble here.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
(off shore, Artic, etc.) we sure as he-- wouldn't have to be as dependent on all those foreign countries that LOVE us, as much as we are dependent on them now. Let's at least start drilling...even though I read that it wouldn't change the course of are dependency on the LOVE countries for at least ten or more years. We will ALWAYS need oil...why not get and use our own!!!! Let's get the ball rolling. We already missed the boat a long time ago and still haven't learned our lesson!!!!!
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Tap existing land leases before drilling offshore (Island Packet)
Back in the 70's we started the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That's just crude - there's not much gas or diesel or heating oil stored in the US.
I think it likely that the reality is that both represent very expensive oil, which is no solution to the oil price problem, obviously.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
http://www.autoweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080717/FREE/233692635/1528/- newsletter01
I'm still holding my breath waiting for some automaker, ANY automaker, to announce a major program of weight reduction, to help comply with the new standards...
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I think we'll see significant car weight reduction about as soon as we see people weight reduction.
Thus, the diesel today has to be of the "BluTek" (Urea injection) type for the USA market.
So the question is: who's already has a Blu-Tek diesel?
I know Mercedes does, and a few others. But I don't think GM has one.
If GM doesn't, then their only options are "make or buy".
"Make" - means doing the Blu-Tek type of development work in-house themselves, and not violate any existing patents or IP. This requires at least a couple of years of engine development, followed by a couple more years to figure out how to integrate those engine changes into a specific production automobile - - I think its safe to say 5-6 years absolute minimum until they get production product out to retail, which equals the 2014-2015 Model Year as their first opportunity for relief through this strategy.
"Buy" - means that for whatever reason -- ie, GM is bleeding and might not survive to 2014 -- then they have to slash the schedule by buying (licensing) someone else's Intellectual Property (IP). This cuts off the 2-3 year's worth of the engine's half of the development timeline and if they were dead serious, could have a product out by 2011-2012.
Of course, there's also the option of:
"Cheat" - get Congress to change the rules. Relaxing the diesel pollution standards would let them bring over their current (Euro) motors immediately. However, due to lack of fleet commonality, there still would be some engineering integration work to be done, so while they could conceivably get a few models by 2010, the 2011-2012 timeframe is more likely. What's "in it for GM" is that they won't have to be licensing someone else's technology - - but the problem for them is that Europe and possibly also Japan already have this engineering work done and can beat GM to market.
-hh
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I could see all smaller engined cars reach a turbo design, and perhaps the upcoming hybrid S-class will work its way down the line, too. But the current performance engines aren't suddenly going away by 2010, too much invested in the 6.2 unit especially. The article is somewhat misleading.
You are exactly right. The undrilled onshore leases held by oil companies large and small are being explored as fast as the rigs allow, but the basic truth is that the large, easily-produced onshore oil accumulation in the US were found years, well decades, ago. High oil prices allow exploring for high-cost oil, but these aren't the wells that'll produce at high rates.
edit-I almost forgot - if an oil company actually 'sits on' a lease, they can (and are) sued by the property owner for 'failure to develop', so it's really a myth that there are all these millions of acres of productive land that the oil companies just don't want to drill. Simply untrue.
Did the last car you bought have better fuel economy than the one it replaced?
the Ford C-maxx (or whatever it will be called) or Mazda 5 look perfect. To me at least, not sure about the wife! she probably wants some sort of CUV, and most of those dont get any better MPG than the van, unless you go real small (and I doubt that is happening).
MPG though will not be the primary consideration, but it will be in the equation.
2020 Acura RDX tech SH-AWD, 2023 Maverick hybrid Lariat luxury package.
Among the effects of the sum total of these changes will be significant vehicle price increases. More buyers will be relegated to the used market. Cars will become throw-away items to a greater extent than even today, as the cost of repairing a car that's been in an accident becomes increasingly uneconomical. I'm also thinking that driving and car ownership will probably be less fun.
And that's just for starters.
But, I wonder if the moderators should focus the CAFE threads. It seems we have three. Maybe we need just one? Close the other two?? I don't care which one, but it does seem like people here should have one thread in news and views to talk about this important issue...