Will Car Sales Really Recover?

stever

Who's up, who's down?

"May was the most unusual month in the U.S. auto industry since August 2008’s “cash-for-clunkers” anomaly. The typical springtime updraft had no wind. Executives said a year-to-year decline in sales was only a temporary respite in the industry’s building recovery, and they made a good case. Pickup-truck sales declined. Ford sold all the small cars it could make for the California market. The Chevy Malibu was the country’s best-selling car. And for the first time since February 2006, Chrysler outsold Toyota. Even high-flying Hyundai threatened the pre-eminent Japanese brands. The domestic Big Three actually ranked 1-2-3 in U.S. sales in May for the first time in many years."

May Sales Bring Back Big Three (AutoObserver)

motorcity6

Another fluke is that the V-6 was the choice of power for F-150 buyers by a slim margin..

Honda and Toyota will return after they get the homeland suppliers rolling again..Hope Nissan stays down..

It's good to see the Big3 on a little roll, rooting for Ford, GM has so much Govt connection it will fade behind Ford once the Govt stops pumping money and Chrysler is a real puzzle in predicting it's future..

Only time will tell, but the city of Detroit is quiet for there is nothing left to steal, folks are waiting on the Obama dollars...They just line up at CoBo Hall..

stever

Chrysler has surprised a lot of people. They are humming on all cylinders, except Town and Country sales are in the dumpster for some reason.

stever

A NY Times reporter is looking to talk with someone who traded in a car - or plans to trade one in - because the value had gone up or because the dealer contacted them asking if they would trade in. If you’d like to discuss this experience, please contact pr@edmunds.com by noon this Friday.

stever

"“If gas prices go up, full-size-pickup sales will drop, but typically they’ll bounce back, as they did,” explained Don Johnson, GM’s U.S. vice president of sales."

May Sales Blip Shows Pickups' Steadiness (AutoObserver)

stever

June Car Sales Sluggish; 11.9-Million SAAR (AutoObserver)

stever

Industry Sales Momentum Downshifted In June (AutoObserver)

General Motors: Steady As She Goes
Ford: Small Cars In Demand
Chrysler: Trucks Carry The Load
Toyota: Turning Point
Honda: Hit Hard In June
Nissan: Up, Infiniti Hurt By Quake
Hyundai: Record June
Kia: Record June, Second Quarter
Volkswagen: On a Roll
BMW: Higher Sales; New Mini Record
Daimler: Smart Downer; Mercedes Up
Subaru: Inventory Struggle
Mazda: Buoyed by People Movers (where I come from, people movers are buses)
Audi: Another Record Month
Volvo: Much-Improved Performance
Mitsubishi: Sales Double From Year Ago
Jaguar Land Rover: Land Rover Up; Jag Down
Porsche: Strength From Cayenne
Suzuki: Kizashi Sales Dip; Others Rise
Saab: Tough Business Month

gagrice

Cars are better suited for young people. SUVs are more for comfort of us old people. Where would Chrysler be without the Grand Cherokee? What a money maker that has to be. I would consider a Cayenne if they offered the TDI like the Q7 and Touareg. Just because I love Porsche.

I don't think the gas prices have been as much an influence as they went up gradually vs 2008. I still see a good market for econoboxes. Just not in my market and the boomer market.

If not for the Pilot and Highlander, HonToy would really be in the toilet. No mention of Lexus. Is Toyota dropping the nameplate. :P

benjaminh

I wonder when they'll get their production back to 100%?

stever

There was a paragraph buried in that article:

"Lexus has been especially wracked by the supply disruptions after March 11, and sales were down by 40 percent in June. The impact cost Toyota’s luxury brand its first-half crown for segment leadership, which was taken over by BMW."

stever

Early Look At July Sales

hpmctorque

I expect that Volkswagen will come on strong in Q4 '11 and Q1 '12, after the new, Tennessee built Passat and redesigned '12 Beetle are introduced.

Toyota should get a strong boost from the all-new Camry, which I believe will be introduced before year-end. That should coincide with when production has recovered from the earthquake/tsunami.

Then, in Spring '12, Chevy will introduce the all-new '13 Malibu. The Passat will have plenty of competition, but I expect that it will do okay.

stever

AutoObserver

fintail

Probably Crosstour sales :shades:

Weird chart, so are Lexus and Infiniti under their parents, or "other"?

Surprised about the Koreans, so some would have us believe are slaughtering the automotive establishment with their daring original designs and lack of federal coddling...

berri

I heard someone on TV today (maybe on CNBC?) refer to the koreans as the new old Japan. They said they are stealing everyone's patents and copying products for a lower price (and of course getting embroiled in numerous lawsuits!).

stever

Dunno, sometimes they lump Lexus and Infiniti in with Toyota and Nissan and sometimes they break it out by make.

And the Korea number surprises me since Hyundai sales are reportedly up.

hpmctorque

"Dunno,..."

The same question could be asked about Acura.

stever

Honda is bouncing back nicely.

September Sales Finish Strong (AutoObserver)

anythngbutgm

But, but but!!! I thought we were foolish to believe that Honda (and Toyota) was affected by the tsunami disaster? What happened to those folks who gloated the single month the Snuze and Rentabu were at the top of the monthly sales chart?

I thought these Japanese companies were on a permanent slide because nobody no longer wanted them?

Ya... :sick:

stever

Well, I think some of it is that the Japanese suppliers are favoring their domestic manufacturers. Lost the link but there was a recent stink with some German company over getting some pigments.

Be curious to see how sales go next year. There's a lot of pent-up demand for new cars and it remains to be seen who's going to take advantage. VW may yet beat them all.

stever

September Auto Sales Defy Economic Headwinds (AutoObserver)

robr2

Lost the link but there was a recent stink with some German company over getting some pigments.

IIRC, that German company is the manufacturer of a key ingredient used in some pigments. That German company manufactures that ingredient only in a plant they own in Japan.

stever

A reporter would like to interview anyone who has used Edmunds.com's Car Match.

Please email pr@edmunds.com by November 4, 2011 with your daytime phone number and a comment about your experience.

stever

So far this month:

stever

Auto Sales 2011: Everybody Gaining Except Japan (AutoObserver)

stever

“The days-to-turn rate, which counts the days a car is on the dealership lot before it is sold, is at the lowest point we have on record,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds.com senior analyst. “Production is a lot leaner for the domestics these days, while Honda and Toyota are still rebuilding inventory after the earthquake.”

2011 Vehicle Inventory Running Dry (AutoObserver)

stever

November 2011 Auto Sales By Automaker

benjaminh

Seems like Mazda might be getting some traction with Skyactiv--they're up 20%

Hyundai and Kia have had a great year--yet again. But at this point with their factories going flat out, I'm not sure show many more they can produce next year.

I think I read somewhere that the KIA factory in Georgia is now running three 8 hour shifts--24 hours a day! That alone boosted their capacity something like 100k units to c. 300,000+ a year....

stever

If you finally replaced an old car, please email pr@edmunds.com to share your story with a reporter.

stever

"An estimated 866,655 new cars will be sold in January, for a projected Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 13.4 million units, forecasts Edmunds.com.... This sales pace is relatively flat from the 13.5 million SAAR recorded last month, but up from the 12.6 million SAAR from January 2011."

Edmunds.com Auto Sales Forecast: Analysts See Chrysler up 35 Percent (chron.com)

stever

"The inventory of Elantras is down to the single-day level.

Nissan North America said its March U.S. sales rose almost 13% to 136,317 vehicles, a record for any month in the company’s history."

Toyota up 15%. Chrysler up 34%. GM up 12%. Ford up 5%. VW up 35/5.

"The only major automaker missing the March sales parade was American Honda Motor Co. Its sales fell 5% to 126,999 from the same month a year ago."

March auto sales leave Hyundai looking for more cars to sell (LA Times)

gagrice

Toyota sales jump 15% on strong fleet, retail volume

Fleet sales represented about 13.5 percent of Toyota Motor Sales' volume last month. The Camry had a 20 percent fleet mix.

Is Toyota suffering from GMitis?

explorerx4

Ford really dropped their retail incentives. Focus sales, for example, are not sustainable at a March sales level on an on going basis.

anythngbutgm

I've read in a couple of placers that Toyota is filling orders for fleets that have been backordered due to last years tsunami.

stever

Some of them anyway.

"Also Tuesday, Volkswagen of America Inc. said it had its best April sales year 1971, selling 37,525 vehicles, up 31.5 percent from the same month a year ago."

Chrysler's April up 20%, GM down 8.2%, Ford down 5% (Detroit News)

stever

"U.S. auto sales are on pace for the best showing since 2007 and a third straight year of at least 10 percent gains, only the fourth such streak since the Great Depression, as more-confident buyers return to showrooms."

Auto Sales Rise Puts U.S. on Pace to Best Year Since 2007 (Bloomberg)

stever

"Almost halfway through the year, the auto industry keeps chugging along toward a mid-14 million unit sales pace, said Jessica Caldwell, Sr. Analyst at Edmunds.com. With continued pent-up demand and consumers gaining more and more access to credit, there's every reason to believe that sales can continue at this rate through the rest of the year."

Edmunds.com May 2012 Auto Sales Forecast (Bloomberg)

stever

"Pent-up demand, falling gas prices and low interest rates are being credited with powering stronger-than-expected monthly gains in U.S. car sales.

"There was great pressure from automakers to close June strong, especially after the unexpectedly weak Memorial Day holiday weekend in May," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell."

Auto Sales Rev Up in June (Inside Line)

stever

"You would normally see some holiday sales, some summer sales now," she says. "But that hasn't started."

Seller's Market: Where to Find Auto Deals This Summer (WSJ)

On the plus side, credit is cheap and easy to get again.

stever

"August once again played out the theme we've been seeing for some time: high pent-up demand that is being unleashed as consumers have to buy a new vehicle and feel confident enough to buy."

• Toyota and Volkswagen were impressive performers in August, with sales rising 46 percent at Toyota and Volkswagen posting a 63 percent increase over last August.

• Volkswagen said it sold 10,090 Passats last month, marking the best August ever.

• Toyota's resulted indicated that the Japanese automaker largely has bounced back from the devastating 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

The domestic automakers posted strong August results.

Hyundai Motor America announced an all-time August sales record of 61,099 units.

Resilient Auto Industry Reports Robust August Sales (Inside Line)

stever

Edmunds.com Forecasts 15 Million New Car Sales in 2013

stever

"Mass-market manufacturers have responded to falling demand by lowering prices, but the severity of the situation has now forced them to consider more drastic action.

While the premium-car segment is less price sensitive than the mass-market sector, Europe's economic woes have started to spill over into demand for larger, more powerful sedans and sport-utility vehicles. European registrations at Daimler fell 6.9% last month, and the German company recently cut its full-year profit target for its core Mercedes-Benz Cars division."

BMW, Audi, and the Koreans are about the only brands with increasing sales.

European Car Sales Slump Continues (WSJ)

stever

October numbers will be out starting Thursday.

"Edmunds suggested that "strong performances" by the redesigned Honda Accord and Nissan Altima will propel the Japanese manufacturers to record October sales in the U.S.

The industry is expected to post an annual selling pace of 14.8 million to 14.9 million new-car sales in October, according to Edmunds and TrueCar, respectively. That would be the best October in five years."

U.S. new-car sales expected to sustain recent momentum (Detroit Free Press)

stever

"Automakers are reporting relatively healthy October sales, despite Hurricane Sandy's toll.

"October had been on track to be another strong month and was still a reasonably healthy month considering the punch Sandy packed," said Michelle Krebs, Edmunds.com senior analyst.

Before the storm, U.S. auto sales were expected to rise 11-12 percent for October, according to economists."

U.S. Auto Sales Relatively Healthy, Despite Hurricane Sandy's Toll (Inside Line)

berri

If the northeast takes a sales hit because of the storm, I'm thinking the European models may be a bit more affected. They seem very popular there. If they can make the inventory available they'll get it back on the flip side. Otherwise it might benefit Asia or Detroit a little.

stever

"Automakers on Thursday reported mixed U.S. sales results for October as Superstorm Sandy put a damper on East Coast vehicle purchases at the month's end.

Overall, new car and truck sales were up 6.9 percent on volume of 1,092,205 units compared with 1,021,313 a year ago. The impact of high fuel prices was again evident, as car sales increased 13 percent while truck sales edged up 1.6 percent."

U.S. truck, car sales up 6.9 percent in October (Detroit News)

stever

Top 20 selling auto models, November 2012 (Detroit Free Press)

stever

"In 2012, the pace of automotive industry sales steadily increased even as the national economy sputtered and often appeared to stall. Sales of cars and trucks increased in part because of pent-up-demand from the recession when people postponed purchases.

The rebound in sales occurred even though the industry cut its incentives.

For the year, the average new car incentive fell 5.1%, according to Edmunds.com."

Auto industry's 2012 sales best since 2007: Chrysler up 10% in December; Ford, 1.9%; GM, 4.9% (Detroit Free Press)

stever

Who knew that predicting sales was just as much a combat sport as being the sales winner?

Edmunds.com Analyst Named Top Auto Sales Forecaster of 2012 (fortmilltimes.com)

Grade The Analysts (thetruthaboutcars.com)

stever

"The year 2013 is off to a strong start with January car sales totaling 1,042,479 vehicles, the first January the industry has surpassed the 1-million-unit mark since 2008. The 14-percent increase in sales compared with a year ago pushed the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of sales of 15.3 million vehicles, precisely in line with Edmunds.com's forecast and on par with the past couple of months, but significant since January usually is slow sales month."

January Car Sales Off to a Fast Start

ateixeira

There has to be pent-up demand. How many people have been waiting on the sidelines since 2008?

Plus, look how much more fuel efficient cars are now. That's driving demand, those 2008s are paid off and people will be looking to trade them in soon.

I think 15M is low...