Will Car Sales Really Recover?

iluvmysephia1

'08 Mitsubishi Lancer GTS is fully paid off (Mar. and Apr.2013 then we're done) I fully intend ta just drive and enjoy the beautiful compact sports sedan. I would rather pick up a '62 Cheva Nova SS as a project car or buy one already restored than trade in for another new car.

Gonna pop open a bottle of champagne, man, when it's fully paid for! :shades:

stever

A journalist is looking for proud owners of cars 11+ years old to ask why you love your car. If you love your old car and would like to share your story, please send your daytime contact info to [email protected] no later than Monday, March 4, 2013 at noon PT/3 p.m. ET.

ateixeira

Early reports are coming in - Ford up 9%, GM up 7%.

dieselone

Fusion had a monster month. Feb sales were 27,875 vs. 14,817 for the Malibu.

stever

"For six decades, Americans have tended to drive more every year. But in the middle of the last decade, the number of miles driven — both over all and per capita — began to drop, notes a report to be published on Tuesday by U.S. Pirg, a nonprofit advocacy organization.

People tend to drive less during recessions, since fewer people are working (and commuting), and most are looking for ways to save money. But Phineas Baxandall, an author of the report and senior analyst for U.S. Pirg, said the changes preceded the recent recession and appeared to be part of a structural shift that is largely rooted in changing demographics, especially the rise of so-called millennials — today’s teenagers and twentysomethings. “Millennials aren’t driving cars,” he said."

Young Americans Lead Trend to Less Driving (NY Times)

stever

"The share of sales to this age group fell almost 30 percent from 2007 to 2011. Then, in 2012 — a year that brought 13 percent year-over-year growth to auto sales, Millennial buyers came back to the market in force, improving their share of sales to just over 20 percent less than 2007 levels. What's more, they have largely maintained these share gains so far in 2013. Improving income and employment, more household formations, and increased consumer confidence all contributed to the boost in Millennial car buying."

Millennials Take the Wheel

andre1969

Isn't the millennial generation 1982-2000, or something like that? I think it's going to be hard to judge that group as a whole until the whole generation comes "on line" Right now, the oldest ones might be 30-31 (incidentally, I didn't even buy my first new car until I was about 29 1/2), but the youngest are still in middle school. Right now, about 20-25% of them aren't even old enough to get their license yet, while another similar-sized chunk probably would probably need their parents to co-sign for one.

dieselone

I bought my first new car at 24 in '95 and still needed my dad to co-sign.

lemko

Bought my first new car at 22 in 1987. It did help that I had an uncle in the banking business! :P

stever

"A new analysis from the CALPIRG Education Fund, a nonprofit focused on good government, argues that the change is not just economic.

"The recession does not appear to be the prime cause of the falloff in driving over the past eight years," it concluded.

Since the recession, Americans are driving fewer miles, on average, in all but a handful of states. The average Californian, for instance, cut his or her annual miles driven by 6.6% between 2005 and 2011, the report found.

When people don’t have jobs, they tend to drive a lot less. But the states with the biggest drops in driving don’t all have the biggest increases in unemployment, the analysis found."

Driving is down, and it's not just the economy, new study finds (LA Times)

stever

Pretty optimistic forecast.

"The average age of all light vehicles on the road climbed to 11.4 years in 2013, and an aging fleet will continue to force buyers back to the market next year," says Edmunds.com Chief Economist Dr. Lacey Plache. "With used car prices still elevated over past norms and used car supply still tight, the new car market will remain attractive to many of these buyers."

Edmunds.com Forecasts 16.4 Million New Car Sales in 2014

fintail

I wonder if aging fleet stats aren't dramatized a bit. A 10 year old car now seems a lot nicer than a 10 year old car 10 or more years ago.

Mr_Shiftright

As the owner of a 10 year old car, I couldn't agree more.

That's interesting isn't it? A few decades ago, if you drove a ten year old car, you might as well hang a neon "LOSER" sign on the roof---but now, most 10 year old cars look pretty darn good.

fintail

Back then, many cars were junked by 10 years old. I know my mother's mid 70s T-Bird was off the road by 1985, my dad's Horizon only made it to 10 or so years old, etc.

andres3

I wonder how many sales are driven by terrible drivers that cause collisions whereby 2 or more vehicles need replacement.

stever

stever said:

Pretty optimistic forecast.

"The average age of all light vehicles on the road climbed to 11.4 years in 2013, and an aging fleet will continue to force buyers back to the market next year," says Edmunds.com Chief Economist Dr. Lacey Plache. "With used car prices still elevated over past norms and used car supply still tight, the new car market will remain attractive to many of these buyers."

Edmunds.com Forecasts 16.4 Million New Car Sales in 2014

Looks like the actual number was 16,522,000, per the WSJ.