Is Tesla A Game Changer?
hpmctorque
Member Posts: 4,600
Tesla stock has enjoyed a meteoric rise in the past year, and especially in the past eight months. It's hot. The current valuation may only be justified if the company is a game changer. Even then the stock may be ahead of the fundamentals, but the investment merits of Tesla is a side issue for purposes of this discussion. The stock serves as a score keeper of how investors feel about the future of the company. Main street may play out differently. The focus of this discussion should be about whether Tesla is the automotive equivalent of the I-Phone, and whether this Silicon Valley company will defy the odds by designing and building better and more competitive vehicles than Detroit, Germany, Japan and Korea.
Motor Trend named the Model S "Car Of The Year" and Consumer Reports awarded it its highest rating ever (99 out of 100).
Elon Musk is methodically tackling each of the drawbacks of pure electrics, such as limited range and concerns about resale values. New, lower priced SUV and sedan models are planned for 2015 and 2016. Another roadster may follow. In 2014 the Model S will be sold in Europe and Asia. The company is fighting dealer friendly state laws requiring vehicles to be sold through traditional dealer channels rather than directly. Tesla is trying to model its distribution along the lines of the Apple and Amazon models.
It's too early to know how successful Tesla will be, but what's your prediction? What happens next? Might you choose a Model S over an equivalently priced Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Hyundai, Lexus or Mercedes?
Motor Trend named the Model S "Car Of The Year" and Consumer Reports awarded it its highest rating ever (99 out of 100).
Elon Musk is methodically tackling each of the drawbacks of pure electrics, such as limited range and concerns about resale values. New, lower priced SUV and sedan models are planned for 2015 and 2016. Another roadster may follow. In 2014 the Model S will be sold in Europe and Asia. The company is fighting dealer friendly state laws requiring vehicles to be sold through traditional dealer channels rather than directly. Tesla is trying to model its distribution along the lines of the Apple and Amazon models.
It's too early to know how successful Tesla will be, but what's your prediction? What happens next? Might you choose a Model S over an equivalently priced Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Hyundai, Lexus or Mercedes?
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Battery tech is currently maxed out. There is, from my understanding, no 'breakthrough' battery tech on the horizon within the next 10 years---after that, probably so.
This alone, if true, limits EV development to merely tweaking and tweaking what we already have, with increasingly diminishing gains at ever-increasing cost.
EVs have appeal as a "toy" or as "feel good marketing" items, but I don't see the EV threatening the future of the ICE, or even grabbing much market share from conventional cars.
Once you take a hard look at an EV, even a really nice one like the Tesla S, you see that the touted "economy" or "gas mileage" if you will, is illusory, as it does not calculate total energy losses from power plant to vehicle. In terms of actual energy spent, a Tesla S probably expends as much as a Hummer.
So what I'm getting at is that the EV is not going to be embraced as a savior for energy scarcities.
Still, if you gave me a Tesla S, I'd grab it. :P
But if I went all-electric I'd get the Mitsubishi i. I love how Mitsubishi makes cars. I don't know much about Tesla.
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
But this thing has piqued my interest enormously.
Model X
2014 release, I'll be the first in line to try one out. :shades:
Woods Dual-Power
link title
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Plus they better have a crane to lift it for anyone who didn't eat their Wheaties this morning.
It's been too long since I studied any of this. How big of a wire would it take to carry 480 amps? Most homes these days have a 200 amp electrical feed, and that wire is fairly large / heavy. 480 amps would have to be REALLY BIG?
There was even a racing model, which IIRC was also the first AWD car:
It is interesting that the US was a leader in electric cars ~100 years ago. Now the Tesla is leading in a way, at least for a highline car. I want to see it succeed without the subsidies though.
Then a 4 yr / 50k miles is $1900.00 prepaid. Or 8 year/ 100k miles is $3800.00. Why would anyone prepay for an 8 year term when there is no cash savings incentive? Unless they are suggesting your inspection rates will definitely go up during that time unless you are locked in. Same price structure if you include "Ranger" service at 2400/4800$ instead of a per occurrence $100. chg.
Another caution...extended batteries wty starting after the initial wty expires: 1 year/12k mi $3000
2 years/24k mi $5500.
3 years/36k mi $7500. !
At those prices, I would suggest that maybe there isn't much confidence left in battery capacity after the original wty expires. IOWs...lets say you buy the 3 yr extended...what are you in for in yr 4 if they fail then? And since they are priced at 7500. for just 3 extra years, does that not suggest that any term beyond must be borrowed time?
I'm not impressed yet. Altho I love the idea of an electric rear axle assist in a FWD ICE vehicle. I believe that that is the future for those who need AWD only once a day in the winter (me), just to climb my hill to get home. The rest of the year, enjoy le$$ complexity of no transfer case, no driveshaft to the rear, much better FE due to fewer parasitic losses even while in FWD mode etc etc..
So Tesla...ya got it half right at least..
When I mentioned the rear electric drive assist though, in my mind I was sorta thinking of its viability in more common everyday vehicles that moderate to mid incomes could get into..you know..Civic/Accords, Corolla/Camrys etc and of course to replace basically all the AWD SUVs that we have that really only use the extra 2 drive wheels less than .1 % of the time they are moving.
The i3 hasn't been introduced yet, but will be this winter in Europe, and some time next year in the U.S.
So this almost sounds like they have resurrected an old 650 twin horizontally opposed twin from a few decades ago...a good motor although in current build I suspect it would be transformed into a liquid cooled mill for car use. It too must be detuned for torque in order to get down to 34 horse. Unless it is a really old 500 cc? Interesting. I doubt that tho...maybe they built a new engine entirely from the grd up for this little beast??
Anyway, sorry to inadvertently get too far away from Tesla chat..
I just drove to work today on I-880, and saw a dark grey one, nice sleek and looks like a ferrari sedan..............
Lots of these are showing up nowadays....
Some say yeah, some say no problem to hit $200.
WE'LL SEE!
"Finally, we know the number. Tesla Motors announced today that it sold 5,150 Model S electric vehicles in North America last quarter. Divide by three and you see that the California company sold around 1,700 cars a month, which puts it right up there with the current plug-in vehicle champions, the Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Volt. That's despite the fact that the cheapest Model S, which starts at $69,900 but often sells for a lot more with better options, costs at least twice as much as the sales leaders. Tesla said it was making "almost 500 vehicles per week" in the second quarter of this year."
Tesla is playing a pretty dangerous game if you ask me, doing some things which could blow up right in their face. They are really counting on the luxury car market, which has vicious competition, and they may run afoul of state franchising laws as well.
Perhaps that's what it takes to break the mold---again, we'll see.
What it needs to do is meet enough consumers needs, and be a good enough value, to be considered a "marketable" commodity.
This doesn't strike me as the same scenario as Apple operates in--Apple also sells very slick and high-priced gadgets that people love---but Apple has a long history of profitability and a wide diversity of product to fit a variety of pocketbooks. Tesla has neither right now.
One might say "Well, no one needs a Porsche either"...and that's true. But Porsche is also selling you "heritage", "prestige" and outstanding performance, to say nothing of a very exciting driving experience.
I see Porsche/Ferrari clientele as different from Tesla clientele.
But that's a good point, the "new kid" might attract some just on that ideal, not wanting to be seen as stuffy old tradition (even if they represent it in every other way).
Most people buy the product's attributes, and don't research the genesis of the brand's name.
'24 Chevy Blazer EV 2LT
I know some may scoff, but when some people buy a Ferrari or Porsche, they feel like they are not only joining a club, but that some of this heritage now belongs to them.
Not that I'm arguing that you NEED this heritage to succeed. I mean, look at Lexus. No heritage and the name is meaningless, and they stole a good chunk of Mercedes' market in short order, right out of the gate.
What Lexus presented to buyers was not only a car of equal quality to the competition, and superior reliability, but at a much lower price.
You can't beat THAT for marketing power.
'24 Chevy Blazer EV 2LT
Some surnames would sound odd as auto brands, but Tesla is easy to pronounce and flows well, to me.
I'm wondering to what extent the fact that Teslas are designed and built in the U.S., and in Silicon Valley, in particular, appeals to early adopter type buyers?
California has a reputation, deserved or not, as the place where "new things" happen.
A Tesla S is a very attractive "toy" if you will, offering a new experience and the prestige of being "first on the block".
What it isn't, is a common sense way of saving money on gas.
Tesla is the future of the automobile. It represents a paradigm shift from the internal combustion engine. Like all new products the cost of entry is high because of the need for a company to recover its research and development costs before competitors enter the market. (Does the PC, fax machine, HDTV come to mind?)
Consumers always want the latest and greatest technology and they don't mind paying for that privilege. While some sit on the sidelines waiting for the stock to tank, others on the other hand are making a fortune in share price appreciation.
The name Tesla Motors is nice way to pay homage to the great genius Nicoli Tesla. Although Thomas Edison treated him badly he still emerged with a more effective and practical method of transmitting electricity over great distances. Not unlike what Musk has done today--to extend the range of the electric car.
Whenever I see the words "paradigm shift" I know the BS machine is being refueled (or plugged in, as the case may be).
True enough though, some people will make money on Tesla stock and some will lose money on it. Welcome to the stock market.
and now, for some reality:
The battery technology to create a "paradigm shift" doesn't even exist yet, nor is it in the hopper. It is probably a good 10-15 years away.
That being said, I admire the idea and the style. If I was wealthy enough to have one as an in-town or commuter car, and had a place to charge it, I'd be looking.
I think the best way to envision a Tesla S right now is to picture it as a Lexus with an 8 gallon gas tank.
Whose batteries am I getting in return for mine? What if they don't work correctly? Who tows me home? What if there is a long battery-swap line? What if I'm not near to a swap station?
Can I do this at home? How much do a set of backup batteries cost me?
You know what would be great? A charging platform that you drive onto!
Or a third rail type device built into a guard rail on the freeway?
Go check out a big warehouse sometime and look at the forklifts. Chances are they have a parking station for the lifts, and they drive them in when the low charge light goes on, push a couple of buttons and get a fresh battery automagically installed and go back to moving pallets.
Who cares if you get a battery in the last year of its useful life? You'll be swapping it out in another 500 miles anyway.
Okay, it is quiet, I'll give you that one.
It is quiet and efficient (once you install the infrastructure), but the loaded sport model is also touching 7er/S-class/A8/LS territory, not exactly attainable by most.
NINETY SECONDS to swap a battery, that is truly remarkable. That innovation should silence the critics and transform the BEV from fringe to mainstream transportation. The next critical steps are to bring down the cost of the battery and to expand replacement/charging stations to reach critical mass.
I just watched a video elsewhere that pegs the cost of a battery swap at $60 - $85. However, it will cost about $500,000 to build and equip a station with the requisite robots. Expensive yes, but that is a price some will be willing to pay for time and convenience.
Even assuming this is true, EVs will still have to compete on utility and price with continuously improving ICE and hybrid vehicles. Each propulsion system has pluses and minuses, as well as supporters and detractors.
I believe that it's far to early to predict which system will ultimately prevail because the outcome will depend largely on technological, production and application breakthroughs, plus environmental issues. Who can predict breakthroughs?
Chances are that each of the current systems, plus fuel cells and things we haven't even thought of, will have a niche in the transportation systems of the future.