MPG varies with ambient temp
My MPG for each trip as indicated by the TLX trip computer seems to vary by each trip directly proportional to the outdoor temperature. My daily commute to and from work is very consistent with little traffic and only one traffic light. I can predict my trip MPG fairly accurately based on what the current temp is. When the outdoor temp is 80-90 deg F I get 30 or more MPG. The other morning when it was 10 deg F I got 22 MPG. Take the outdoor temp divided by 10 and add 21 fairly accurately predicts my mpg to or from work. My commute is about 20 minutes/17 miles. This variation seems excessive but the car runs fine. Does anyone else experience similar?
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I think this cold weather effect will vary make to make, so I'm inclined to say your MPG at 10F could be regarded as the low end of "normal".
There are so many factors at play here---fuel blend in winter, cold weather warm ups, electrical demands, tire pressure, engine running temperatures, aero drag (cold air is denser), oil viscosity.