Paying more than MSRP for (new) Hybrids, Depreciation/Value of used Hybrids

Sylvia

Hybrid resale values - will they hold?

graphicguy

Not a slight. I always thought that someone who buys a Prius or hybrid Civic bought one as either a knee jerk reaction to some temporary (preceived or real) jump in gas prices was fooling themselves. Yet, some attempted to make the financial case with dismal results. My contention all along was that those who buy the car, should do it because they like the technology, not because they felt it was a sound financial decision.

A few people tried to convince me and others that the Civic hubrid was either a better car (more/better equipped), or that it made economic sense. Neither of those it true.

If you buy a hybrid, I don't have any issue with anyone saying they bought it because they thought it drove well, or that they like the "gee whiz" technology that went into it.

djasonw

Understood. I guess buying a $50k audi allroad was knee jerk reaction though!! Glad it's gone!

john1701a

> because they felt it was a sound financial decision.

Explain the millions & millions & millions of SUVs on the road.

Virtually none of them were a "sound financial decision".

Economics alone is almost never the sole reason for buying. Purchase decisions are based on a number of factors, some of which cannot even be measured in units of money... a few that only hybrids offer.

JOHN

gagrice

Explain the millions & millions & millions of SUVs on the road.
Virtually none of them were a "sound financial decision".

I disagree. They are as smart of a buying decision as any other vehicle. For one SUV's hold their value better than many cars. The hybrid's resale is a unknown because of the "Fad Factor". When & IF they are as plentiful as SUV's, we will have a better idea of their long term resale value. Right now they remind me of the frenzy of the Mazda Miata. The Miata now is just another sporty car. If you can look into the future and say a car will be worth as much as a MB 300SL Gull wing in 30 years then you can buy a car as an investment. Otherwise it is just a depreciable commodity like a TV. Buy it if you like it. If you like it after you buy it, then it was a sound decision.

john1701a

> For one SUV's hold their value better than many cars.

That is true only when gas is cheap.

And now that the shape & design of SUV is radically changing, the value edge will likely disappear.

> When & IF they are as plentiful as SUV's

That comment makes no sense, since a hybrid can be a SUV.

Your view of "hybrid" is an futuristic car with limited appeal. Clearly you need to step back and look at the big picture. HSD & IMA are hybrid propulsion technologies, not vehicles.

JOHN

gagrice

True, they have SUV hybrids in the testing stages. The only hybrids available to the buying public so far are the smaller sedans and the hatchback Prius. You are right on my views, I am still skeptical of the long term value of hybrid propulsion, especially in the size & type vehicles I need and want. I am not unhappy that you and many others are tickled with your choice in vehicles. I am a bit concerned that you may think yourselves superior based on what you drive. Man make the cars, the car does not make the man..

djasonw

Certain SUVs just like certain cars hold their value quite well. The previous generation prius is doing quite well too. If you think hybrids are a fad you are sadly mistaken. A pet rock was a fad, not the hybrid technology. If anything, your conventional ICE vehicles will be a thing of the past. If someone were to look back at these posts thirty years from now, they'd laugh.

john1701a

Remember how "hydromatic" technology (now known as "automatic") was once thought of the same way... something with limited appeal and no potential to satisfy most needs.

Today, over 90% of the vehicles in the United States use that technology. And besides being such a convenience (no shifting), it actually delivers greater torque. Few would have ever believed that could be possible. So just wait until the skeptics discover what an electric-motor can do. Another factor-of-denial is the reality that the newest version of "automatic" (a non-hybrid CVT) can be as efficient as a manual.

JOHN

gagrice

I'm not skeptical of the technology. I am not convinced the manufacturers will being able to produce the hardware at a competitive price. I believe Batteries will be the real challenge in this whole hybrid technology. Without energy storage the hybrid falls flat. So We are back to conventional means of propulsion. The only thing that has gone wrong with my 6 year old Suburban is the battery. One week after the warranty on it expired. I realize it is lead acid and not NiMH. I think NiMH is even more of a challenge to the manufacturers. The EV1 was simpler than the HSD and it fell flat because it was too expensive to maintain. AT least that is what GM claims. The people that leased the EV1 loved them as much as the people that own the Prius. I'll be surprised if I am here in 30 years to see the all hybrid fleet.

john1701a

> Without energy storage the hybrid falls flat.

Not true.

The Racing-Prius has already proven that.

JOHN

djasonw

Gary.. hang in there. In thirty years I'll be about your age.

usbseawolf2000

"I believe Batteries will be the real challenge in this whole hybrid technology."

Did you know that EV1's had NiMH battery that is 22 times more capacity than Prius and 29 times more than HCH? In another word, Prius and HCH battery capacity is only 5% and 3% respectively to EV1's battery!

Dennis

bamacar

Not very likely that automatics are nearly as efficient as manuals. Take a look at the latest issue of CR. All cars with the autos were slower than their manual counterparts, and all but one got worse gas mileage while doing it. A few were about 2 seconds slower to 60 and achieved worse gas mileage.

gagrice

I'm sure the EV1 had a large battery to have a 75-130 mile range. I would imagine the battery issue was what cost GM the most in repairs. As hybrid technology is adapted to larger vehicles, the batteries will need to be larger. A large part of the appeal the Prius has is the super quiet ride in town driving. That also aids the economy. So to say the batteries are not necessary as John stated in another post is misleading. Without batteries you just have an ICE generating electricity to run an electric motor. Not very practical as I think you have stated in reference to the way Honda designed the HCH. I also think it is misleading to say batteries will be cheaper when the time comes to replace them. That is a totally fabricated prediction.

john1701a

> Not very likely that automatics are nearly as efficient as manuals.

That is *NOT* what I said. Pay attention, please.

Once again, my statement was about NON-HYBRID CVT vehicles.

For example, the 2005 Ford Freestyle uses a Cone & Belt CVT, just like the kind HCH has. The reason for this is to improve efficiency.

JOHN

bamacar

Please read again and clearly understand my post this time. I said not very likely that "automatics" match the manuals.

1. Very few cars on the road have a CVT choice so it is a non-issue for 99% of the American buyers.

2. CVTs are more efficient than other automatics. Compared to manuals, many CVTs match the Fuel Econonomy, but are slower in acceleration thus not as efficient. It is easy to make an automatic car get the same fuel economy as long as you make it slow enough (gearing).

3. Most of the CVT vehicles have been unpopular and in Saturn's case unreliable. With all the Automatic transmission recalls lately, it would seem logical that a number of the "90%" would see some of the advantages of a manual transmission choice. Then again when people are doing everything but driving (talking on the phone, playing with electronic gizmos, and listening to Nav systems), getting actually involved in the driving process is probably not an option.

moparbad

Diesels have a track record of high retained value and high resale value compared to similar gas models for at least the last 10 years.

Someone thinks hybrids will have poor resale value.
http://www.popsci.com/popsci/auto/article/0,12543,690590,00.html

john1701a

> Someone thinks hybrids will have poor resale value

Fortunately, reality is much more kind.

At times, Prius has held all-time records for highest resale value *EVER*. Some slightly used models (5,000 or so miles), have actually sold *ABOVE* the sticker-price of when it was new.

When gas here (US) climbs to above $2.50 and stays there, it's all over. The resale values for traditional gas vehicles will plummet and used hybrids will be a rare find.

JOHN

bamacar

Nothing new here. When a car is hot the resale values are very high. Same thing happened the first year for the PT Cruiser. When the hot item cools off after a couple of years, used car values will plummet even faster given all previous data. If gasoline stays at $2.00 or less over the next couple of years, hybrids may plummet even faster than expected.

Any item with fast changing technology loses its value and buyer interest faster.

sebring95

Price a 2004 Passat TDI Wagon with 7501 miles in the state of California. Same story, new vehicle. Lets talk about what they're worth in three, four, five years with 75k, 100k, 125k miles. I can get over 60% of what I paid for my TDI 5 years, 90k miles ago. Wait and see is all we can do with the hybrids at this point.

I filled my gas guzzler SUV up for $1.69 last weekend. If anything plummets at $2.50/gallon I'd be surprised. I don't see even the SUV's plummeting until $3 or more/gallon and certainly not fuel efficient gasser cars. If anything, they'll increase in proportion to the decrease in SUV/Truck value. Resale prices for full-size SUV's were about dead even for June compared to the prior year so they weren't even plummeting when fuel was very high. New sales were down however, but that's hard to compare given the economy. The market's not as volatile as some folks believe.

gagrice

I think gas has to go over $3 per gallon to make any real difference in our car buying & driving habits. A couple weeks ago ebay had two Touareg V10 diesels that were past MSRP in the bidding. It all has to do with supply and demand. When the automaker builds enough to saturate the market the prices will come down. I think the Japanese for the most part have done a good job at keeping the inventory below demand. Then they don't have to sell at a discount. How does that affect the work force. Do they lay off during slow car sales periods? Maybe the domestics are bound by contracts to keep people working. That can have an impact on how many cars are in the inventory during slow sales periods.

gagrice

I think the resale of the Prius that has less than 50k miles will remain strong. There is a 2001 on ebay right now that has 75k miles and the dealer has not gotten a starting bid after 6 days. No warranty and the risk is too high. A 2003 Prius with 26k is sitting at $9200 with 2 days to go. A 2004 with 16k miles is at $11k with no reserve. A new package # 7 is at $23k. Most of the Prius that are listed on ebay are from dealers. Which tells me they are having a hard time unloading them off the lots. 20 Prius are listed on ebay as of this moment, 8 have no bids. Maybe a good buy for someone looking.

john1701a

> If gasoline stays at $2.00 or less over the next couple of years, hybrids may plummet even faster than expected. Any item with fast changing technology loses its value and buyer interest faster.

Placing all the new technologies into a single category is extraordinarily misleading. Avoid using the label of "hybrid" to identify all the designs if you want to keep discussions constructive.

To clarify, there are 5 system designs currently available. You'll find them in: Silverado-Hybrid, Insight, Civic-Hybrid, Escape-Hybrid, and Prius. All use different "hybrid" technology. Each has distinct advantages over the other. None offer the same efficiency & emissions.

The source of confusion is each design has been placed into a different size & type of vehicle. So people often think they work the same and it is just the vehicle itself that makes them different. That couldn't be further from the truth. Unfortunately, it will take years for people to learn the actual differences. I wish there was a way of rapidly educating about the various designs. All too often, discussions come to the wrong conclusion due to misunderstanding of how a particular hybrid actually works. Bummer.

JOHN

falconone

It appears that hybrids are doing MUCH better than anything on the market right now. Even with gas LESS than $2.00 the hybrids (mainly the Prius) sales were strong. Now with average prices way below $2.00 demand has NO waned. Just have a look at auto trader and ebay. Though I am still on the fence about what to do for my next car, I am still debating a Prius in my future. If more diesels are available (not a VW fan), I'd like that too.

stevedebi

"Price a 2004 Passat TDI Wagon with 7501 miles in the state of California."

If you are buying a used one, I wonder how it got to California? In any case, a used one would be pretty valuable, since new Diesel Passat's cannot be sold here. This makes it a scarce item.

stevedebi

"t appears that hybrids are doing MUCH better than anything on the market right now. Even with gas LESS than $2.00 the hybrids (mainly the Prius) sales were strong. Now with average prices way below $2.00 demand has NO waned. Just have a look at auto trader and ebay."

It took a couple of years for the PT Cruiser fad to die. The new Prius is the latest thing at the moment, and limited supply has driven up the price. Once more hybrids arrive and / or diesels take off with the low sulfur fuel arrival in 2007, and with Toyota upping production, the Prius will probably sell more normally, and at MSRP or less.

Current resale of a new car (and all 2004 Prius are "new", that is less than a year old) has nothing to do with the value in 3 or more years, which is the question mark - and the point of this forum.

falconone

I wonder why the original Prius is fetching crazy prices? That's over 3 yrs old isn't it? I suppose the PT cruiser got to where it is because they make hundreds of thousands of them a year. Not so for the Prius. I suppose five years will be a good benchmark. I just can't believe people are paying list price for a car with over 10k miles. Nuts!!!

john1701a

>I wonder why the original Prius is fetching crazy prices?

First, you actually mean CLASSIC not ORIGINAL.

CLASSIC = 2001, 2002, 2003

ORIGINAL = 1998, 1999, 2000

There are some rather significant differences between the two.

 
That CLASSIC design is more capable of a system than IMA. And people are starting to discover that, so they are willing to snatch up a used one at the premium price.

And all along, I've been quoting the research material that shows data revealing that the battery-pack is capable of delivering full-capacity until somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 miles. After that, you take a MPG hit since capacity is reduced. That's it! Acceleration isn't even affected, because there's more than enough capacity still remaining for that. Anywho, Toyota is now using a 180,000 mile quote whenever people ask about battery-pack expectations. So it is becoming evident that the system is performing as designed. That reality is helping to keep the resale values high.

JOHN

falconone

Thanks for the clarity John. It is amazing how there's always a few folks who want something "new" to fail miserably. People try to read between the lines, when in actuality there is nothing really there. I really hope to be a part of the hybrid family soon. I'm sold, but not in today's tight supply market. I do think current list prices are fair though.

john1701a

It's going to get pretty fun a few years from now. I have a bunch of friends that own classic Prius. Their miles will slowly build up. At that point, we'll be able to squash the misconceptions just by the overwhelming volume of data alone. There will be so much that statistics won't even be necessary anymore.

It's not a whole lot different from other "profound" new technologies. Like when some questioned how well front-wheel drive would actually perform in real-world conditions. Obviously, we've progressed beyond that.

The same goes for airbags. They clearly have proven their worth as the years have rolled by.

JOHN

jprice

Just tonight, I was talking to a lady who purchased a 2001 Prius with 87k miles for $10k. She is totally satisfied, and thinks the handling is great. Her other car is a Harley. She admits to being somewhat of a greenie, but was seriously stoked by the performance (passing on the highway, for example). Just another data point...

jprice

gagrice

The same goes for airbags. They clearly have proven their worth as the years have rolled by.

How can you say that? They have cost us billions of dollars to put in cars. I do not know a single person that has been saved by them. I do know of one child that was killed by an airbag. They are a total waste of money in my opinion. Of course NHTSA is going to say they save lives after they forced them on us.

Kirstie_H

Relying on one's personal experience is not always the best method of judging the worth of a safety feature.

I don't know a single person who has been saved by seat belts, infant car seats, firefighters, or vaccines. But do people generally want to live without these? Because statistics show they save lives.

Airbags are gaining the same popularity as a factor in resale as seat belts used to - a lot of folks ask about air bags when looking at a used vehicle purchase.

kirstie_h
Roving Host & Future Vehicles Host

stevedebi

"Airbags are gaining the same popularity as a factor in resale as seat belts used to - a lot of folks ask about air bags when looking at a used vehicle purchase."

I think that airbags bring up an interesting point about new technology, in that it was over 10 years after they were introduced that the first multi-stage airbags were introduced. Now cars have sensors to make sure they don't deploy dangerously.

Like the Hybrids, they were an evolutionary process.

falconone

One of the most obtuse statements I've ever read on Edmunds. Just because YOU don't know of someone not saved by an airbag means that they're useless. They've proven themselves! Now with the smart air bags children no longer have a risk.

Sylvia

we are a bit off-topic. Back to hybrid resale values.

larsb

What kind of proof do you think someone can show? Can I go to all the dealerships in my area and ask to see their resale invoices?

There is NO SOURCE that I know of or have ever heard of for tracking ACTUAL RESALE prices PAID for cars. I'm sure the car industry reports that to SOMEONE SOMEWHERE, but I do not think that is public information.

Resale values listed in Blue Book and Edmunds and all other sources are based on what? Do we even know? Are they based on "actual sales prices paid" or are they based on "retail and wholesale asking prices?" I don't think they are based on actual sale prices paid - can anyone show me I'm wrong?

If they ARE based on "actual prices paid" for used cars, then they are completely VALID.

If they are NOT based on "actual prices paid" then the actual prices paid obviously does not make a flip, does it?

Can you follow that most excellent logic?

Kirstie_H

Resale values listed in Blue Book and Edmunds and all other sources are based on what?<snip> I don't think they are based on actual sale prices paid - can anyone show me I'm wrong?

Erm...this is an easy one. Yes. Our TMV numbers are derived from data received from dealerships, and are directly based on actual sales prices.

There is NO SOURCE that I know of or have ever heard of for tracking ACTUAL RESALE prices PAID for cars

You've missed out on one of our best tools!! LOL.

kirstie_h
Roving Host & Future Vehicles Host

larsb

OK Great - so TMV *REALLY IS* based on REAL WORLD PRICES PAID data. So can we agree that it is reasonable to assume that a discussion of "how well a Hybrid is holding it's value" can be based on TMV data? Are we all in agreement on that point?

larsb

Example:

2002 Prius, clean condition, 59,000 miles, zip code 85034, MSRP when new was $19,995:

Private party price: $14,718 = 74% of orig MSRP
Dealer price: $17,375 = 87% of origi MSRP

Even a good negotiator who might be able to drop the dealer price by $1500 to $15,875 would mean that the 2002 Prius would have held 79% of it's original MSRP after 59,000 miles.

Anyway you want to slice it, that is NOT INDICATIVE of a car whose "resale bubble has burst." LOL

midnightcowboy

(1) The latent Prius demand is satisfied.
(2) The Prius has been around long enough to determine high battery replacement costs.
(3) Other high mileage cars and alteratives become available: HAH, HCH, Insight, other HSDs, diesels, diesel hybrids, fuel cells, ultracapicitor EVs, solar EVs, Hydrallic EVs, govenrment mass transit, Star Trek Transporters in all cities/towns.
(4) Gas prices goes down.
(5) The Hybrid fad fades.

The probability and likelyhood of some options/alternatives are not equally likely and subject to change.

YMMV,
MidCow

larsb

I agree with most of the above points, with these caveats:

1. We don't know about the battery situation yet, but I don't think it's correct to assume that the battery technology will negatively impact the resale value. It has yet to happen on Insights from 1999 or Priuses from 2001. ( Has anyone heard from the Japanese buyers that the 1997 Priuses are selling at a lower values than other 1997 small cars because of battery replacement issues? ) Smart consumers will either have an extended warranty or sell the car before 100,000 miles, lessening the impact of battery replacements ever being an issue for them. The battery is just one more expensive system to replace, just as each version of new technology has introduced, ABS braking systems being a lower cost but pertinent example. No car has lost value because the ABS system MIGHT fail - that same thing could just as easily end up applying to Hybrid battery systems. Although it is witty to assume that battery replacement costs MIGHT drive down the value of these cars after 5-7 years, they may not affect long term resale value IN THE SLIGHTEST.

2. Hybrids, a Fad? I think not !! Maybe, just Maybe, with a certain type of "keep up with the Joneses" demographic, buying a Prius might be sort of Faddish. I.E. drving the car that Cameron Diaz drives. But saving gas and reducing emission levels is not a fad at all, and that is the two main REAL selling points for the current Hybrid generations of cars. There is a little "geek factor" for some buyers too, but it's not faddish - it's just that those people now have the chance to have something new and interesting to spend $20K-$30K on. For people like me who replaced a Chevy Avalanche with an HCH, it was mostly a financial decision. I'm saving about $7,400 (seventy four hundred dollars) a year versus the Avalanche with reduced gas use and reduced car payments and reduced insurance figured in, as well as reduced vehicle registration costs.

Other technologies will come along and replace the current Hybrid technology from an engine technology standpoint - but the TYPE OF TECHNOLOGY matters FAR LESS than the GOAL of all these technological improvements which is to reduce usage of fossil fuels and to improve air quality - That part of it is not Faddish in the LEAST !!!

falconone

I think demand is going to grow even more for hybrids as gas prices creep up. As for hybrids being a fad, well I think the contrary. Many mainstream manufacturers have stated that they will be releasing hybrid vehicles. It won't be long before every major manufacturer has some type of hybrid on the market. Honda should be applauded for their latest version of the Accord. A driver's car with power, comfort and mileage in the 30's. Clean too!!! I believe standard ICE engines will be the thing of the past soon!!

midnightcowboy

If diesels come back then the hybrids might just be a fad.

If fuel cells catch on then hybrids might be just a fad.

Hybrids are most popular right now because (1) the price of fuel is high and (2) they provide significantly higher mpg than other vehicle alternatives. Now the price of fuel may never come down to $1.50 or lower ,but there will me more and more high mpg alternatives introduced.

During the first mid 70s gas crisis, people paniced and car vendors went to smaller engines. Then the answer was "turbos" A 4-cylinder turbo had the power of a v-8 and the economy of a 4 cylinder.

"Turbos" are now all but a FAD. Don't tell that to Subaru, VW or Saab though

If BMW or Honda introduce diesels in their line-up, then Hybrids will become the "Pet Rock" or "Hula Hoop" of cars.

YMMV,

MidCow

Go Astros!!

larsb

Definition of Fad from dictionary.com:

"A fashion that is taken up with great enthusiasm for a brief period of time; a craze."

I think a fad has to be a fad in the "right now" and cannot be historically defined as a "fad" later...

Maybe a better term will be "passing fancy" if Hybrids go away and lose the luster..... LOL

falconone

I hope edmunds has enough disk space to archive these discussions for 15-20 years. Just imagine if we're still around and we look back at our posts of 20 years ago? No one can tell the future, but it appears we're going in the right direction. We really need to be driving more fuel efficient cars to decrease our dependence on foreign oil. I am one of the few people that enjoys seeing gas prices increase! We really need $3.00 gas to get Americans to rethink their fancy for gas guzzling SUVs.

larsb

But WILL be hurt by HIGH MILEAGE. From another Forum on this website:

Gary, how much credence do you put on E-Bay motors prices versus Edmund's TMV? I think an E-Bay expert like yourself can realize that what I said is mostly true: E-Bay is not a good model for selling a car and CERTAINLY not a good model for Buying a car. Who in their RIGHT MIND would buy a car without seeing it, touching it, driving it first?

I think what you said about "a car is worth what you can get someone else to pay for it" is absolutely true. But the fact is that here in the good ole' USA, we have a system called "Blue Book Value" that dictates a car's worth, like it or not, agree with it or not. Smart buyers do not go by prices on a "bad model" like E-Bay. If you want to buy a car unseen, then you are risk taker and deserve to either lose your money or get a good bonus if you find a bargain.

Here is my main point, pay attention: "Just because you can get one yokel out of 280 million Americans to sell a Prius for $6600 does NOT MAKE THAT PRICE THE NORM."

And my second major point: Any car, Hybrid or not, with 50K miles on it per year WILL LOSE MASSIVE AMOUNTS of value. That is an incredible, unusual amount of mileage that will cause an avalanche of depreciation.

electrictroy

Resale value:

AGE matters more than miles. I've got a 1987 Plymouth with 10,000 miles. Garaged. Like-new. It's worth 200 dollars in the book... my dealer offered me $1000.

Meanwhile I've seen 2002 Civics with 150,000 miles sell over $10,000!

Age matters more than miles. Most buyers don't want old styling... even if it's still a new car.

larsb

I see used Hybrids in the paper selling for what they should sell for, which in the case of HCH resales is about $500 more than an EX.

And for Priuses (Gen 2) it's about MSRP or higher.

I have no worries about my resale value, because I'm smart enough to sell WAY before 100K, hybrid or not.....because the VAST history of US car sales has shown that cars over 100K drop in value immensely.

(we might better move this to the resale value forum before we get scolded)

john500

I am having a hard time understanding how anyone would even consider paying MSRP or more for a car. A break-even analysis strongly favors the purchase of a Corolla, Civic or Echo if gasoline cost reduction is the primary objective.