Leasing vs. Buying which is better for me?

Hey All!
I go back and forth on leasing. I usually drive a higher end car (Audi/BMW/Mercedes) and always drive an SUV (I've had X5's, a Q5 and a Touareg). I drive about 18-20k a year and tend to get a new car around the 2-2.5 year mark. Lately I've purchased and put decent cash down (20k or so) and rolled the equity into the next car purchase. I do live in CA which means when I purchase I pay the full tax vs. leasing. Would it make sense to just lease and put less cash down and pay any mileage overage?
I go back and forth on leasing. I usually drive a higher end car (Audi/BMW/Mercedes) and always drive an SUV (I've had X5's, a Q5 and a Touareg). I drive about 18-20k a year and tend to get a new car around the 2-2.5 year mark. Lately I've purchased and put decent cash down (20k or so) and rolled the equity into the next car purchase. I do live in CA which means when I purchase I pay the full tax vs. leasing. Would it make sense to just lease and put less cash down and pay any mileage overage?
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But those are both edgy assumptions, IMO. If you run 5,000 miles overage, that can hurt, too.
On the other hand, leasing favors the short-term buyer, and sometimes you can get a pretty good lease deal on a "leftover" high end car.