What If - Gasoline is $5 a gallon in 2010?

electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
edited March 2014 in Honda
Could people afford it?

Assuming typical 20,000 per year commute:

88 mpg lupo tdi = $1100 a year
50 mpg prius/civic hybrid = $2000 a year
40 mpg civic or echo = $2500 a year

37 mpg accord hybrid = $2700 a year
31 mpg escape hybrid = $3200 a year
20 mpg "generic" suv = $5000 a year

Wow. I'd bet we'd see a lot of "under 30mpg" SUVs and cars get traded in. The difference between a 20mpg suv & a prius, the fuel savings alone would pay for the car in just 7 years!

troy
«13456715

Comments

  • gagricegagrice Pahrump, NevadaMember Posts: 31,450
    Assuming typical 20,000 per year commute:

    If I drove 20k miles per year I would already have a VW TDI or Honda Insight. Probably the TDI to give me the added option of biodiesel and established longevity.

    For me it is not a case of affording it, I am just very frugal.
  • railroadjamesrailroadjames Member Posts: 560
    This seems more timely and plausable and most of us know it could very well occur. I'm more concerned with supply & demand because that could lead to "rationing" and anyone who listened to their parents that endured WWII can attest to what it was like having limited supplies of gas. We've led a pampered life with "over indugence" our way of life. We all know that transportation is going thru a metamorphis and changes are in the air. I still think that "MASS TRANSIT" is as much a concern as anything else. Maybe because I put 30 yrs in railroading. We engineers could move 40-50 times the weight product of one semi-truck. Next time you're on an expressway count the "big" trucks you have to share the pothole roadways with. Then think how much fuel the trucks and cars are wasting while sitting still going nowhere. Lastly, think about how much time is wasted in those traffic jams....NUFF SAID, don't ya think?
    Railroadjames( if only we wised up)
  • gagricegagrice Pahrump, NevadaMember Posts: 31,450
    We engineers could move 40-50 times the weight product of one semi-truck.

    Do you think the railroads could ever make a comeback? Freight costs are getting to be a real issue. And trucking companies are probably the biggest barrier to getting cleaner diesel in this country. I'm sure one semi pollutes more than dozens of cars.
  • railroadjamesrailroadjames Member Posts: 560
    The impossible has finally happened....We found something WE agree on. Trucks (Semis not Suburbans) are part of the problem. Way too many clogging our roads and over polluting our air. Trains could make a comeback if only Congress would quit sucking up to the auto industry. Lobbyists run our country make no mistake. I just hope someone or some President has enough guts to do right by America. WE WILL SEE!
    Railroadjames(trains are fun)
  • kernickkernick Member Posts: 4,072
    you: I'm more concerned with supply & demand because that could lead to "rationing" and anyone who listened to their parents that endured WWII can attest to what it was like having limited supplies of gas.

    me: well if rationing was ever required, I'd want to make sure that the really frivolous uses of gasoline were curtailed first. No gas use for pleasure boats , RV's, and other purely recreational vehicles, would be a good start. Then everyone can quit wasting gas in lawn mowers, to make your lawn look pretty.

    And if gas does go to $3, the people who will be hurt are the lower-income. People who have $30K + to spend on a car are not going to buy a Focus because their gas bill is $2000 or $3000/year.
  • railroadjamesrailroadjames Member Posts: 560
    Since we all agree(for the most part) that there's a change in the air, I think it would be valuable to hear from salespeople if there are any out there willing to share what's going on in the "business". I'm curious as to the trends(if any) on the buying public. Other words...Are they changing over from SUV's even more than the current down turn of approx. 25%-30% thats been released by the business sector so far. Since Rebates are bountifull...do they really matter?
    Railroadjames(Big car sales has to be drying up)YES?
  • gagricegagrice Pahrump, NevadaMember Posts: 31,450
    We found something WE agree on.

    I am sure there are many things we could agree on. I believe that wasting fuel is bad. I also believe the American public are getting the shaft by politicians that pander to lobbyist on both sides of the table. The shipping industry has blocked attempts to clean up the pollution by trucks and ships. The environmentalist's lobby settle for band aids on the pollution issue by forcing higher standards on the little guy. And it is considered a step in the right direction. Consequently the only high mileage cars that are allowed in are overly complex such as the hybrids. If our politicians were interested in clean air we would have clean diesel and 50% of the vehicles sold would get the mileage that we get with a few hybrids. If I buy a car in the next few months it will be a diesel. If gas goes to $5 per gallon I can ship the vehicle to Hawaii and live on my farm and get biodiesel for under $3 per gallon. It will not be affected by high gas prices for a quite a while. I do fine on papaya, bananas & mangos. And I can work on my own car without Toyota to tell me they have never seen that problem before. As much as you feel that hybrids are the answer to gas shortages, I feel diesel and specifically biodiesel is a better answer. Only time will tell which is right for America
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Pennsylvania Furnace, PAMember Posts: 9,372
    railroadjames, your question about what car salespeople are doing would probably be better asked over on Smart Shopper in the Any Questions for a Car Dealer? topic.

    I kow it's easy for these discussions to branch off into other areas, but try to stick to the topics as much as possible. Thanks!

    PF Flyer
    Host
    News & Views, Wagons, & Hybrid Vehicles
  • gagricegagrice Pahrump, NevadaMember Posts: 31,450
    Here is a thought on the price of gas. If I were to drive my Suburban 15k miles in a year with a gas price of $5 per gallon. It would cost me about $5000 a year. The average mortgage in San Diego has increased in the last 5 years by over $20,000 per year. Even at $5 per gallon gas is not a big part of the average Americans budget. If the average car gets 27.2 mpg that cuts that expense in half to about $2500 per year. $200 per month compared to the average home mortgage written today being $2800 per month. At $5 per gallon gas is cheaper than drinking bottled water.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Pennsylvania Furnace, PAMember Posts: 9,372
    There was a front page article in my local paper about how gas prices are affecting businesses and they were talking with "ordinary people" like a guy who delivers pizzas., who said something to the effect that it's costing him $3 more to fill up each time, yet he's driving a Geo Metro so I'm not sure what price he's comparing the current price to. The point being that while the price of gas has gone up, (although one station actually dropped two cents here today so my gut feeling that panic about prices has finally run out of steam seems to be making sense) that extra cost for gasoline is FAR from my #1 financial worry.

    PF Flyer
    Host
    News & Views, Wagons, & Hybrid Vehicles
  • gagricegagrice Pahrump, NevadaMember Posts: 31,450
    that extra cost for gasoline is FAR from my #1 financial worry.

    I agree that only the poorest among us will be impacted by higher gas prices. They are the ones that cannot afford new cars that are more fuel efficient. They buy $300 beaters and drive them till the wheels fall off. I know my son delivers Pizza in the winter in Alaska when construction is slow. His 4Runner is not the best on gas mileage. Housing is a much bigger burden for him.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Pennsylvania Furnace, PAMember Posts: 9,372
    If you're at the bottom of the ladder and are driving a $300 beater to death and it's costing you an extra $5 a week, it may hurt you a bit more than the guy who can afford to fill up his Hummer, but that $5 or even the cost to fill up simply can't be a MAJOR portion of your monthly/weekly budget. Food, shelter, and other basics pretty much dwarf what you would be laying out for gas. heck, milk is almost $3/gallon here and I need that whether I drive or not, and we're using 3-5 gallons/week on a consistent basis. Compare that to my car that I fill up with about 11-12 gallons every 2.5 weeks. Milk is costing me about $30 for every fillup that sets me back about $25!

    PF Flyer
    Host
    News & Views, Wagons, & Hybrid Vehicles
  • SylviaSylvia Member Posts: 1,636
    is being moved to the News & Views board where it will get more participants. It will also be available in the Hybrid Vehicles board, but depending on how you subscribe to things, you may have to add the discussion individually to your Subscribtions list to appear/track in your Message Center.

    Thanks!
  • davem2001davem2001 Member Posts: 557
    The bottom would fall out of truck/SUV sales and there would be waiting lists for hyrbrids and diesels. The current HP race would end, replaced by a MPG race...we've already sort of lived thru this in the 1970s

    As long as supplies were un-interrupted you wouldn't see any rationing - the rationing would be self-imposed ...people would drive less, use mass transit more, maybe you'd see a huge boom in telecommuting (work from home).
  • andre1969andre1969 Member Posts: 25,259
    I can tell you that I'm glad I got out of it before fuel prices shot up to $2.00 per gallon, let alone $3 or more! I used to drive mainly old, V-8 cars that would get around 11-15 mpg in that type of driving, but when the gas was $1-$1.30 per gallon it really didn't matter much. I figure that, driving those older cars, the fuel cost usually ranged around 9-11 cents per gallon. It had to be an incredibly busy night for me to have to put more than $15.00 in the tank, and on a night like that I would've taken in well over $100 in tips...sometimes closer to $150.

    Just by coincidence, I bought a new Intrepid right around the time gas prices started shooting up in late 1999. I had to really run the hell out of it to get worse than 20 mpg, so even when gas was up to $1.50-1.60 per gallon, I was still better off than when I was driving an 11-13 mpg Gran Fury but only paying $1.15 or so per gallon.

    Now though, that prices are up to $2.10-2.20 per gallon around here, that's putting my Intrepid back up to around the same cost per mile as those old guzzlers were back in the day.

    If I needed a second job today that brought in a lot of quick cash, I definitely would NOT deliver pizzas. I think nowadays I'd get a job as a waiter or bartender.

    Hopefully the delivery companies are paying their drivers a bit better these days to compensate for fuel prices. When I quit back in 2000 I was making $6.00 per hour, and the company paid me $1.00 for every delivery, plus the tips on top of that.

    As for my regular job, well I only live about 3 1/2 miles from work, so $5.00 per gallon gas probably wouldn't change my choice of car. However, I probably would cut down on "unnecessary" driving.
  • davem2001davem2001 Member Posts: 557
    Your post also brings up another thing - $5 a gallon gasoline would be inflationary across the board, everything including the price of a pizza would have to go up...if a pizza shop owner is paying the delivery drivers more, he isn't 'eating' that cost, he passes it along to the customer.
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Pennsylvania Furnace, PAMember Posts: 9,372
    The article featuring the delivery guy also talked with the pizza shop owner who said they haven't passed along increased costs so far. That's why I think that the media frenzy over this is dangerous. Emotion is big part of the market, and it's a fine line between informing the public and stampeding them.
  • andre1969andre1969 Member Posts: 25,259
    what the typical delivery pizza might cost nowadays. When I used to deliver pizzas, I was somewhat sheltered from the true price because they'd always let us make pizzas to take home for free. But I remember we often ran specials of 2 large, 1-topping for either $15.99 or $16.99. With tax that would come out to $16.79 or $17.84, which worked out nice because usually the customer would just give us a twenty and say "keep the change". But if we did a special for $17.99, with tax it came out to $18.89, but still often the customer would still give us a twenty and say keep the change.

    I think pizza delivery is one of those things that could get hit extra hard by rising fuel prices, because the driver really gets put between a rock and a hard place. The driver has to pay more for fuel, but might not be compensated appropriately by the store. And if the prices go up, then the customers are going to complain and not tip the driver as well.

    And if the driver doesn't make enough money to justify doing that kind of work, he's going to find something else to do, which could actually make for a shortage of drivers if too many of them get squeezed. I know, for example, the store I used to work at did so poorly in the years after I left (I'd like to think my leaving had something to do with that ;-) that the company sold it off and now it's a privately-owned franchise.

    I'm guessing high fuel prices will make all sorts of other things go up in price, like groceries, building material, just about anything that's delivered by truck or train. Since most locomotives are Diesel-Electric hybrid, I'm sure rising fuel prices will hit the railroads, too.
  • carlisimocarlisimo Member Posts: 1,280
    My family has been towards the bottom of the ladder in the past, and in that case gas isn't the most important thing when choosing a vehicle; none of the affordable options are all that gas-guzzling, and either way you tend to buy exactly the minimum vehicle you need. My parents avoided long commutes with public transportation or by moving, but that was mostly to preserve our old cars' lives. But other families do have unstable work and long commutes, and high gas prices combined with gentrification will keep willing workers from certain open jobs. But gas is never the biggest concern.

    The people who seem worry about it the most, justified or not, are entry level white-collar commuters. They tend to accept longer commutes and have a longer list of "necessary" expenses like broadband internet (well, it is!). They also drive a lot more unecessary, non-commute miles, so when they pay a lot for gas they feel guilty because a lot of it is by choice.
    The hybrid hype has hit them hard, and my recent graduate friends are always asking me about them, even though they'd be stretching to buy one at current market prices. No one seems to realize how many miles they'd have to drive a year to actually save money.
    And lots of them who would've bought a small SUV might go for the car version, but few of them would've bought a Suburban or F-150 anyway.

    Those who do buy those vehicles (I'm thinking wealtheir suburbanite families) would survive the gas prices. So some'll keep the things, but for most families they're a low priority, and money not spent on the gas will go towards the other luxuries such families enjoy. There'll be a boom among high-end hybrids out of image and hoped cost savings. The only segment I see really suffering is the 4-door large pickups. At that size, it's the three-row-of-seats vehicles that'll survive best.

    But $5 in 2010 money wouldn't be too bad. If it gets there GRADUALLY, I think people will shrug it off.
    If there's a jump and a panic, GM's really screwed because their upcoming truck line is their only real hope in the near future. The streets will also be a little scary when commuter parents give the big vehicles to their (low-mileage) kids. Toyota and Honda will make a killing on high-end hybrids, and continue to make money on small cars. Not sure the domestics will do either.
  • bumpybumpy Member Posts: 4,425
    With a 3 1/2 miles commute, you could find a '67 Dart with a good body, convert it to an electric car, and save the Intrepid for the weekend.
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    I too, in my lower middle class past, have been in the crowd which sometimes had to choose between a six pack or gas for the clunker.....

    I can't recall how many times I made a purchase, and was getting less than two or three dollars change, and told the clerk "put the change on pump two" because I needed gas to get home and to work again before payday, but not enough to fill up.

    Thankfully, I am past those days, but there are probably MILLIONS of people who are in that boat...somehow trying to afford enough gas to make it until payday. It's not easy for them when gas goes up 37 cents in one year like it has recently. If it KEEPS going up, it makes it harder for those people and harder for the middle middle class too, which is where I sit. If I have to spend $65 to fillup my Honda Civic Hybrid at $5 a gallon, the folks who make $20K a year are going to be HATING LIFE trying to keep fuel in an old beatup gas guzzler.
  • davem2001davem2001 Member Posts: 557
    The article featuring the delivery guy also talked with the pizza shop owner who said they haven't passed along increased costs so far.

    The key word there is SO FAR - gas is "only" at around $2.15 (at least where I live)
  • davem2001davem2001 Member Posts: 557
    But $5 in 2010 money wouldn't be too bad. If it gets there GRADUALLY, I think people will shrug it off.

    Exactly - if it jumps overnight, that would be disasterous to the economy - panic, waves of inflation, etc....

    If it happens gradually, it will be a lot less painful, people will adapt, that's just "normal" inflation
  • andre1969andre1969 Member Posts: 25,259
    really isn't that far away, so if we're hitting $5.00 per gallon by then, I think that's going to put a serious hurting on things. The Shell station on my way to work is currently at $2.20 per gallon for 87 octane. If you figure 5% for inflation (which is probably a bit high), for 5 years, that would come out to around $2.81 per gallon 5 years from now.

    $5.00 per gallon would be seriously ahead of inflation. And that's REALLY going to put a strain on poorer people. They can't necessarily afford to go out and get a newer, more fuel efficient car, so they have no choice but to make do with the old gas guzzling clunker.
  • davem2001davem2001 Member Posts: 557
    yeah, ok...If it goes up gradually to $2.75, $3 a gallon by 2010 it will be pretty painless...

    Mainly, I meant in post 24 is, if it goes up gradually it still hurts but it's not a killer...if gas is suddenly $5 a gallon in 2006, it would be economic disaster.
  • kernickkernick Member Posts: 4,072
    you: at $5 a gallon, the folks who make $20K a year are going to be HATING LIFE trying to keep fuel in an old beatup gas guzzler.

    me: I would guess they'd be making more by then; but yes I think we all agree that it will be the lower income people who are affected the most. It may require a change in lifestyle.
    If you look around the world, we are about the only country where everyone can afford a motor-vehicle, or at least to run them as much as we do.

    The interesting aspect of energy cost increases though is that every $ that goes towards energy could have gone towards savings and retirement. If you're 20 or 25, you better not be complacent and feel you can afford $5 gas, because SS isn't going to be the same when you retire.

    The best thing people who don't have much money can do is not to own a car. It solves all these issues. Live close to work, and bike or walk.
  • bumpybumpy Member Posts: 4,425
    Or part together an '85 Accord from the junkyard.
  • gagricegagrice Pahrump, NevadaMember Posts: 31,450
    If it happens gradually, it will be a lot less painful, people will adapt, that's just "normal" inflation

    If we are paying $2.15 a gallon with oil at $55 per barrel that would calculate out to $110 per barrel for gas costing $4.30. The magic price for oil is $80-$90 per barrel. At that price both making fuel from coal and extracting shale oil becomes economical. We have huge reserves of both shale oil and coal that can be used if the price reaches that $90 level. Unless the government adds tax to compensate for cars using less gas the chances of gas going much over $3 per gallon is slim. Some of the current price increase is due to our lack of refining capacity. We need to expand our refineries soon. Buying cheap gas from other countries is not good business.
  • davem2001davem2001 Member Posts: 557
    at the risk of going slighty off topic here - The same thing is happening with electrical power. We're not building enough new powerplants to keep up with growth of demand. I blame that on the NIMBY (not in my backyard) syndrome...
  • lemkolemko Philadelphia, PAMember Posts: 15,261
    "The current HP race would end, replaced by a MPG race...we've already sort of lived thru this in the 1970s"

    Oh my God! Yuck! What a miserable, dull, ugly decade for car enthusiasts! Fortunately, I live very close to my workplace. I could probably walk to work if I got up earlier. At $5 a gallon, it would take $100 to fill my Seville STS and $125 to fill the Brougham. Provided I don't suffer any serious blows to my income such as a job loss or major illness, I could endure. I would definately cut back on some other expenses. If it got bad enough, I'd cancel my cable.
  • andre1969andre1969 Member Posts: 25,259
    about how much it would cost to fill up some of my beasts. My Intrepid only has a 17 gallon tank, so that would only run about $85. The Dart's only got an 18 gallon tank. And the NYer and DeSoto both have 21-22 gallon tanks. My Catalina has a 26 gallon tank though, and my pickup has dual 16 gallon tanks!

    OUCH! I don't even want to THINK about spending $160.00 to fill up the truck! 8-(
  • nine51nine51 Member Posts: 77
    Where I live, we are building power plants, but they are all fueled by Natural Gas. We have coal up the wazoo in this country but nobody can build a coal fired plant any more because of the pollution, and it seems like no one has a way to economically clean up the coal or get past the politics. So, we build gas fired plants because they are clean and cheap to build (relative to other types) and drive up the price of gas to heat our homes and businesses. Short sighted solutions again!

    I'm not seeing $5 gasoline in 2010, but I have made some changes in the past year to simplify our lifestyle and aim for retirement in 12 years or so. In doing so, we have made some changes to reduce our energy bills at the same time. We decided to move to a newer, smaller, more energy efficient home that is closer to work. I am going from a 40 mile round trip commute to a 7 mile commute. Our heating bills hit $200/month this winter for the first time and my wife and I are considered Polar Bears by our friends (67 degrees). We figured that as long as we were moving to lower our maintenance, we might as well maximize our benefits and cut the energy bill as well. Admittedly living in a medium sized town in the mid-west, we can do that much easier than someone in L.A or other large urban area, but I do hear the same ideas from some of my co-workers. It not only lowers the bill at the gas pump, but should make my cars last a lot longer too, which is where the real savings will come.
  • reddogsreddogs Member Posts: 353
    Most countries would collapse since they pay $5 or more at the present $55 dollars a barrel, riots and mayhem would fill the streets, every Opec country with oil would be invaded and held as a giant oil well. Other than that it would be just another normal day, we would be driving Hummers and Expeditions and watching American Idol, munching on french fries and hot dogs, and Americans would still be whining about the high price of gas............
  • andre1969andre1969 Member Posts: 25,259
    back when we were paying like $1-$1.50 per gallon for gasoline, other countries might have been paying $3-4.00 per gallon. Now that we're up to like $2-2.50, does that mean that other countries are going up accordingly?
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    We "whine" because the USA, unlike many other highly developed countries, does not have a "country wide" train/bus/public transporation infrastructure which people can use to get all of their daily business accomplished quickly and efficiently.

    The typical American has a job, and a commute, and 1.2 kids. Those kids have to go to school, to the doctor, to the dentist, to dance lessons, etc., and most of the time, trains or public transportation "do not accomodate" those travel needs.

    If I could
    a) take a bus or train to work and
    b) have a bus route between work and my kid's school and
    c) have a bus route to all my errand locations

    then I would happily use public transporation !

    The problem is, there are not frequent routes that would take my kids and me to all the places we need to go.

    I would LOVE IT if there were, but there are just not routes like that which run at a schedule which accomodates my own schedule.

    So in reality, high gas prices affect the pocketbook of average USA citizen more than the high prices affect most European citizens. I will pay my $5 with a grain of salt if the day arrives, but I will be forced to do so more than doing so willingly.
  • expioneerexpioneer Member Posts: 2
    So some of you think $5 a gallon is going to cause riots?
    well come over the pond to the United Kingdom where petrol prices are already 90 pence per litre and the price of diesel is above that so actually we already pay just under £5 per gallon which is about $7.50 a gallon. It costs me £120 to fill my Chevy G20 with diesel. You are so lucky to have such cheep fuel. However we have free medical cover, so I suppose one cancels out the other and my health is far more important than my vehicles. Incidentally as far as economics go, and I aim this at the person who made a generalised comment about countries who's motorists pay over $5 a gallon, I think you will find that the UK has the most stable and vibrant economy in the world, thanks to a Labour Government, even with fuel prices above $5 a gallon.
  • gagricegagrice Pahrump, NevadaMember Posts: 31,450
    does that mean that other countries are going up accordingly?

    The EU pays the same for crude as the USA. It is the horrible taxes in the EU that make their fuel costs very high. This is a good chart showing that our gas is less than half of the cheapest country in the EU. Our diesel is overpriced currently.

    http://www.see-search.com/business/fuelandpetrolpriceseurope.htm
  • gagricegagrice Pahrump, NevadaMember Posts: 31,450
    expioneer,
    Welcome to the Edmund's forum. You make a valid point about your healthcare being less though your petrol is expensive. My company pays about $950 per month for my healthcare. It is not nearly as good as it was 20 years ago. I know this is not the right forum to discuss other than fuel costs. You do give us food for thought. As far as riots I don't think it will come to that. Prices will go up incrementally and not seem so horrible. I don't see us going to the prices you have in the UK. We would vote anyone out of office that tried to get that much tax from us.
  • rorrrorr Member Posts: 3,630
    "However we have free medical cover..."

    Really? Free? Are you sure about that?

    The government just "finds" money flying out of thin air and decides, out of the goodness of their heart to offer "free" healthcare?

    It may be government supplied healthcare (hmmmm, I wonder if that would be akin to 'public housing' in this country), but it is NOT "free".
  • reddogsreddogs Member Posts: 353
    that means expioneer will be paying around $21.50 a gallon in England, and looking for a few buddy's on the weekend to schedule a riot with. It will cost over £300 to fill his Chevy G20 so he can get to the protests and racking of those responsible and other general mayhem. Oh, but the health care will take care of the broken limbs and bumps and still allow him to make his schedule on Monday AM..........

    As for us in America, it would be just another normal day, drilling out all of Alaska, driving Hummers and Expeditions ... and still whine about the high price of gas............

    Sorry expioneer, I just couldnt resist, but that is almost a true picture if prices were to almost triple......
  • jlawrence01jlawrence01 Member Posts: 1,757
    **However we have free medical cover, so I suppose one cancels out the other and my health is far more important than my vehicles. **

    How is it free when you are paying a far greater portion of your income to the government system? What quality of care is the "free" system? My friends who work for the NPS all pay for private insurance (just like my Canadian friends head to the Cleveland Clinic for their heart bypasses).

    You pay for everything in one way or another.
  • railroadjamesrailroadjames Member Posts: 560
    Maybe the more realistic prognosis for OUR future would be "$5 bucks by 2007!" Ya Think?
    What about rationing in our future? Does anyone doubt that possibility? Tonight's ABC Evening News seemed to be telling us that things could be on the brink of serious problems. Some serious issues with the Middle East.
    Railroadjames(Know who's getting more exercize than us.....the guy changing gas prices on the marquee)
  • kernickkernick Member Posts: 4,072
    Did you miss the point that gagrice and I've previously made that about $90/barrel, coal and oil shale would be economical? That means gasoline would not be $5/gal. long-term.

    Short-term anything can happen. That's why we now have a strategic reserve of oil. And remember that the OPEC countries have a very, very substantial interest in assuring that the world economy prospers. They will try and make as much as they think is reasonable without putting the world into a recession. They want moderate growth. The hundreds of billions of $ they have invested in western businesses will assure that.

    By the way, you're not doing a good job of hiding your glee at an idea that helps no one, and hurts many. Not very nice IMO.
  • gagricegagrice Pahrump, NevadaMember Posts: 31,450
    Tonight's ABC Evening News seemed to be telling us that things could be on the brink of serious problems.

    Is that the same ABC news that faked the Chevy Truck blowing up on impact? I would think you would tire of the doomsday rhetoric. No real facts corroborate your prophesy of $5 per gallon gas. If oil goes up above where it is the other countries of the world that are buying more oil will have a worse problem than we will. Your projection of $120 a barrel oil is totally unrealistic. Fortunately we still have the biggest guns in the region where a lot of the oil is stored.
  • grbeckgrbeck Member Posts: 2,358
    expioneer:...I think you will find that the UK has the most stable and vibrant economy in the world, thanks to a Labour Government...

    It is stable now, but unless the Labour Government has found a way to repeal the business cycle, the good times will come to an end. They always do.

    Incidentally, the real "thank yous" for that stable and vibrant economy should be given to Margaret Thatcher's Tory Government for repudiating much of the nonsense perpetrated during the 1960s and breaking the backs of the militant unions.

    To prevent the increase in crude oil prices from showing up at the pump, Great Britain and other European countries would have to reduce the amount collected in taxes from each gallon of gas or diesel fuel. Since that is highly unlikely (as they need the money), gasoline and diesel fuel prices will rise in Great Britain and continental Europe, too. So our prices won't necessarily "catch up" to those in Great Britain or continental Europe.

    railroadjames: The only reason freight railroads have bounced back is because they now work in tandem with trucking companies to ship items. They grow together...one mode of transportation doesn't grow at the expense of the other.
  • railroadjamesrailroadjames Member Posts: 560
    At the rate WE squander our fossil fuels I'm surprized that you think the supply will withstand the world glut. China and other Asian countries are increasing at alarming rates. We, in the USA are on a record pace at present and WE continue to choose to own and drive Big SUV's that average about 12-15 mpg's. The word "suck" seems to quite readily apply to the gas hogs of the USA. You don't find them in mass numbers in the other countries. Of course here in America we don't care, until the cow's out of the barn, to close the door.
    You want facts. Go to OIL.com and you'll find a vast array of indicators that point to up coming problems.
    One more serious point that should concern everyone....The Middle East and outlying countries currently in termoil are at risk of sabatage. The insurgents that are fighting their holy war would like nothing better than to see world oil supplies & manufacturing brought to their knees.
    I find no satisfaction in this forum when it comes to indifference to the signs that are becoming all too real. These gas prices are real enough today. Some areas are as high as $2.60 a gallon for reg. Lastly those of you that think we will solve our problems with reserves and coal & shale are opptimistic at best and unrealistic at worst. On that ABC evening news tonight were several Reagan and Bush advisors warning of the coming events that can only be avoided if we, as a country, change our wastefull ways. 'Nuff said.
    Railroadjames( aren't we getting tired of traffic jams that we sit in wasting gas going nowhere?)
  • gagricegagrice Pahrump, NevadaMember Posts: 31,450
    aren't we getting tired of traffic jams that we sit in wasting gas going nowhere?

    I rarely go out in rush hours. How are hybrids improving the congestion. It looks to me like the hybrids encourage people to drive more miles. If we are using so much more oil now than 20 years ago where is the gas coming from? We have not built a new refinery in over 20 years. The truth is we are driving more miles on the same amount of gas. Higher mileage vehicles do not encourage people to drive less. We are still far below the gas prices of 1979 when adjusted for inflation. Fuel prices & interest rates in the late 1970s nearly bankrupted me. The worst financial period of my life. We are much better off now. People have enough money to buy high priced hybrids with low interest rates.
  • jsylvesterjsylvester Member Posts: 572
    One thing to consider is, while people consider their employer when deciding where to live, few younger people who work for any large American corporation stay with one company for extended periods of time.

    For me, I assume I'll be in my home longer than with the same employer, so I might as well buy a house in the area I want to live, since who knows where my job will be located in 5-10 years. (Hopefully, not overseas, but my employer is trying to outsource the entire accounting function, so stay tuned.)

    I'm going to 4 ten hour days, so I can avoid driving one day a week.
  • ptm123ptm123 Member Posts: 15
    The best solution is to stay home, I have been telecommuting for over four years. Go into the office about ones a month. Originally was using a remote office capability to avoid rush hour traffic, but then it occurred to my why drive 35 miles to a building to sit in front of computer and use the phone. You go into many companies there are many people who could be more effective if they didn't have to fight there through traffic to work.

    If anything the fact I work from home has been an advantage. I have changed responsibilities and am not exclusively dealing with the local office, however it doesn't really matter. Know a co-worker who went even farther, moved from Massachusetts to Florida were there wasn't even a company office and is still doing the same job.

    So let the price of gas go to 5 Dollars, it will not be increasing my commuting costs.
  • etoilebetoileb Member Posts: 34
    Here is Europe, we would die for $5 a gallon now. I pay nearer $9 (although the weak US$ accounts for about $1.50 of that). What do I do, well I try and use my car less.

    Why the big gap? It's the tax we pay...and therein lies the difference between the Europe and the US. I won't go into the politics of high tax versus low tax economies, as I can show excellent examples of both (Singapore and Sweden).

    However, if I was the average US car user, I would worry less about the effects of price of crude on my wallet and more about how the budget deficit will eventually drive prices up.

    There's a body of thought gaining momentum with the Central Bankers of the US' largest trading partners (China, Korea and Japan), that holding FX reserves in a weakening US$ is a game of poker with no out. Much as they would like to convert their reserves to alternative currencies, the first one to break rank will pull the whole house down.
This discussion has been closed.