What If - Gasoline is $5 a gallon in 2010?

john500

Although Europe and other countries have had their lifestyles changed slightly because of the high taxation on gasoline, I applaud the EU governments for doing it. The US policy makers and car companies have known about the potential for oil shortages and environmental consequences for over 30 years now and auto makers are still making cars that get 10-15 mpg. Conclusion: Auto makers aren't going to produce light, fuel-efficient vehicles because the margins are too small. How else can a country take conservation seriously? TAX! Europe dealt with this problem years ago and suffered the recessions. The US should have done the same thing. With the lost manufacturing infrastructure in the US, I don't think the US can absorb a rapid tax hike on gas today without a bankruptcy similar to the USSR. Plan B: Invade other countries that have oil and maintain the price structure so that GB looks good until 2008. Another genius idea from the dim short-term thinking US geniuses.

andre1969

the idea of telecommuting on the gov't people I support. After all, I do most of my work on a computer anyway, so I could do most of it from home. And, if there's anything they really needed me to come in for, I live close enough that I could be here in 10 minutes.

Unfortunately, they didn't buy it. :-( Oh well, it's not like a 7 mile round trip commute is going to kill me, even with $5.00 per gallon gas.

PF_Flyer

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railroadjames

Gary: You ask.."How are hybrids improving congestion?"
Answer: Stuck in traffic I'm in "stealth mode 60-70% of the time using no gas at all while the "gas hogs" sit sucking fuel.
Gary: You ask.."Where is gas coming from?"
Answer: More than in the past we are dependent on foreign oil supplies.

If you drive using 10 gal.'s of gas and I use 3-1/2 gal.'s for the same miles...Who's conserving? DAH!
Your reasoning as to hybrid owners driving higher milage because of their good milage does not fly. WE drive the same miles annually as we did B/4.

I noticed that you said...""Fuel prices & interest rates nearly bankrupted you."
Well...If fuel prices were partly to blame, what's different now?

I know we have our differences but one thing I think we can agree on is that change is inevitable. Finding fuel efficiency and alternatives to better serve our environment and transportation needs are urgent. Our dependency on foreign oil has to change.
Railroad james(Not all hybrids are "high priced"..mine was less than $21K)

andre1969

the idea that just because you buy a more fuel-efficient car, you're going to suddenly start driving more. That's just putting the cart before the horse, IMO. Most people don't just up and buy a more fuel-efficient car and then decide, "HEY, I'm burning half the gas so I'm going to start driving twice as much!"

No, most people have some major occurrence in their life, like having to switch jobs or move further out, or a long-distance relationship or something similar, that requires them to start driving more. Then, instead of continuing to drive their guzzler, they decide to get something more fuel-efficient. It was the change in their life that prompted the more fuel-efficient car, not the other way around.

lemko

...I seem to drive a lot less these days regardless of fuel prices. I used to drive about 10.5K miles a year, but lately seem to be down to 8.8K annually.

gotenks243

One issue I don't think has been explored so far in this topic is the implications involved if the price of gasoline went up to $5/gal based on increases in oil prices. Bear in mind this is distinct from a price increase due to taxation.

For a long time, renewable fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel had a hard time catching on due to their high cost relative to oil-derived gasoline and diesel at the time. However, as the price of oil increases, this changes. A website for the Canadian Renewable Fuels Association, which has seemingly not been updated since the 1990s, makes clear the disadvantage to renewable fuels over the last decade: "The major disadvantage of biodiesel is high production costs. Studies conducted when agricultural commodity prices were much lower than at present and petroleum prices were in the range of US$18 to $20 per barrel concluded that petroleum must rise to over US$40-$50 per barrel to make biodiesel production viable without a subsidy." Well, guess what. We're there now. And the prices could go even higher.

If for gasoline to reach $5/gal, oil reached $90-$100 per barrel, then ethanol and biodiesel would suddenly become cheaper than dino-fuels. The market demand would not only shift to high-efficiency hybrids, etc., but to vehicles that can be run on renewable fuels. Those companies that already sell FFVs, capable of running on E85 (85% Ethanol, 15% Gasoline) and those that sell diesel vehicles capable of running on biodiesel would see an upsurge in sales, while other manufacturers rush to catch up to this new market demand.

Basically, if gasoline went up to $5/gal, the market would simply find a way not to need (as much) gasoline.

Mike

lemko

...and biodiesel, ethanol, hybrids, and alternative fuel vehicles took their place, what would become of all conventional gasoline/diesel vehicles? Could they be converted or would they all become worthless?

andre1969

but I heard that simpler, pre-emissions cars such as from the 50's and 60's wouldn't require much modification at all. I'm guessing that the newer and more smog-controlled a car is, not to mention complicated, computer controlled, etc, that's what makes it harder to modify. But then, they do make those dual-fuel cars, that can run on either gasoline or E-85. IIRC they get much worse fuel economy on E-85, but on the flip side don't pollute as much, and are burning a source that's more easily renewed.

gagrice

what would become of all conventional gasoline/diesel vehicles?

Diesel vehicles can run B100 biodiesel with no expensive mods. I don't believe Gas cars can run E85 without extensive modification. Most can be converted to LNG/CNG though it is expensive. B100 has some limitations in the cold. There are people using it in Montana and other cold climates with the proper handling of the fuel. Right now without the government subsidy biodiesel costs about $3.48 per gallon. There is a $1 per gallon incentive to use B100. The safest bet is to buy a diesel car and be ready for whatever comes our way. If gas goes to $5 per gallon we will be flooded with diesel cars just as the EU is. People in the Non-CARB states will buy them new, drive them for 7500 miles and sell them to the CARB state people for a premium just as they are doing today.

kernick

TAX! Europe dealt with this problem years ago and suffered the recessions. The US should have done the same thing.

me: NO. As you mention there is a problem with this, and that is the effect it has on lower income people, and in general the overall economy. There is another option - no tax increase but increase the CAFE standards. That would force manufacturers to increase mpg. Despite the accuracy flaws of the EPA-test, the test at least can show which way we're headed and by approximately what percentage.

Allow people to have the choice of whether they want a Suburban or a Prius, without any tax penalty. There just won't be so many Suburban-size vehicles out there; OR the manufacturers will see fit to institute displacement-on-demand, smaller engines, lighter materials, etc.

Ask yourself why hp has nearly doubled on average in 20 years, to move a few people around. Do we really need 250hp to move 2-5 people?

yifflover_69

"Do we really need 250hp to move 2-5 people?"

Let me answer that.
Yes AND No.

I have a Geo Metro LSI Hatch, and Despite having a 70HP 4-Cyl mated to a 3 Speed Automatic, I can still lug 4 people around! (I have also managed with 2 of the 4 being immensely overweight, and piled 7 people in their mexican-style lol) [Mind you these 2 events did not happen at the same time]. Can the car with big dreams do it? YES! Is it VERY hard to get onto the highway sometimes due to the lack of horsepower and added weight? YES!
Does the car struggle up hills even with the accelerator mashed to the floor? YES!
And it's not just with 4 people, sometimes I find our short and steep on-ramps to be a challenge getting up to highway crusing speed (55 here in MD/Frederick County) with just my 140lb butt in there, and going up hills does sometimes require alot of pressure with just me in the car!
So to answer your question: it depends. Do you NEED the extra HP? No, not at all. Would it help to have the extra HP? Yes, definitely.

Now I am not saying everyone needs excessive amounts. Unless you and your family have big waist lines (and commute with them alot) I am sure you don't need 250+ HP. Balance is what we need in the US. However the US was founded on being you. If you don't want a balance in something, you don't have to have it. You can spend credit like there's no tomorrow, and go bankrupt and walk away (that's getting more strict, I know). If you want to eat McDonalds 3 times a day and suffer the consequences, you can. That's why we broke away from Great Britain. So you can do what you feel like doing, even if it does kinda end up making everything else worse.

Despite saying that, I am more-biased to the fuel-efficient circle. When I see someone in a Big Trailblazer EXT V8 or a RAM1500 Quad Cab V8, I usually think: I know they can't possibly have any use for that much power, they could get away with a smaller engine/vehicle, and think they are wasteful. But I keep from going overboard because I remember that this is america, and you are allowed to do it if it floats your boat.

But my opinion ultimately is: Balance is the key.
Of course other things could help, but you can't always expect it to happen. "If you want it done right, you must do it yourself" That holds too true today.

gagrice

When I see someone in a Big Trailblazer EXT V8 or a RAM1500 Quad Cab V8

I agree with most of what you said. Here is where we may veer apart. I have a Suburban that has a V8 with 255 HP. It is 6000+. The new hybrid Accord has 255 HP for half that weight. My question to you, which is over powered? I take a lot of flack for owning the Suburban on this forum. Yet the same people will act like the HAH is a blessing to our environment. I don't buy it.

beliver

What we need is $5.00 per gal prices now. That would be a wake-up call for the insanity of these crazy suv vehicles. Face it folks world oil production has peaked. It's gonna be all down hill from here on out Anwar or not.

believer

andre1969

that cars have more hp these days is partly because they rev higher, and get more of that hp at a higher rpm than they did 20 years ago. They also tend to have less torque now than they did 20 years ago, but also have more gears in the transmission to make up for that.

Also, 200 hp today is not the same as 200 hp was 20 years ago. Back in 1985, cars like the Mustang 5.0, Camaro/Trans Am, Buick Grand National, and Chevy Corvette put out around 200-220 hp, maybe a bit more. Any of them could also do 0-60 in the low 6 second range, even with an automatic transmission.

Nowadays, 200 hp is what you get out of a Chevy Impala or Buick LaCrosse with the 3.8, or the Taurus with the Duratech 3.0. Or a Dodge Intrepid with a 2.7 V-6. However, the 0-60 on these cars is more like 8-9.5 seconds.

Back in 1985 you also had a lot of crap on the roads that would take 15 seconds or more to get from 0-60. Nowadays even 11-12 seconds from 0-60 is considered pretty bad.

bottgers

....to these ever increasing gas prices is not rationing, and it's not less commuting. People will never stop commuting and mass transit systems will never be avaiable in the "burbs". The solution is altenative powered vehicles. The auto industy needs to get off their arses and start mass producing ultra-high mileage vehicles. The days of producing 15 MPG vehicles must end and the time to end it is now. If the government needs to intervien to get the ball rolling, then so be it.

andy

gas prices would tend to decrease if they spiked to $5 a gallon. At that price you would see real conservation thru high mpg cars,etc. This in turn would be a decrease in demand for gas, which always leads to a drop in price.

railroadjames

Never say never. Many countries have profitable and viable trains & trollys & buses. They get off their fannys and bicycle to and from short jaunts (work,stores, &hobbies). Why can't we? Especially when we need it this bad. The "burbs " can change and they better.
Railroadjames(mass transit for mass chubbies)

john500

Gotenks243 brought up a good point that I forgot about. At some price of crude oil (and I don't know what the price is), it actually becomes cost-competitive to make gasoline and diesel type fuel from natural gas and/or coal via the Fischer Tropsch synthesis. Presumably, this price is very high because it has not been seriously looked at in recent times.

Kernick,

I agree that raising the mpg limits (CAFE) is a better alternative to tax. However, several southern senators blocked a senate proposal several years ago for a very moderate increase in mpg. I suspect a similar thing would happen if this were brought up again or some type of absurd compromise would be made (i.e. increase mpg by 1 every other year for the next 10 years).

kernick

yi: When I see someone in a Big Trailblazer EXT V8 or a RAM1500 Quad Cab V8

gag: I agree with most of what you said. Here is where we may veer apart. I have a Suburban that has a V8 with 255 HP. It is 6000+.

me: Yes, I agree that Trailblazers, Rams, Suburbans, etc. should have about that power. Because besides their 4500lb + wt. they can carry heavy loads or tow. Most people I know here in NH use their trucks - plowing, towing boats or campers, hauling firewood, for their plumbing/electrical/auto business, etc.

What I'm referring to is the hp-war that is going on with family and sports cars. Every couple of years these models are having 20 - 30hp tacked on. Look at all DC the models that now have hemis; 10 years ago they didn't have 1 model with a V-8. Lexus, Audi, VW, all making their cars more powerful. They could keep the power the same and use the technology to increase mpg, but they don't. Most manufacturers sit right on the edge of meeting CAFE, and any improvements go towards increasing power (but this is because of what people desire, so I don't blame the mfr.)

kernick

you: This in turn would be a decrease in demand for gas, which always leads to a drop in price.

me: yes if the whole world consisted only of the U.S. and depended only on our oil consumption. But since there is a lot of growth in dmeand around the world, a drop in demand in the U.S. and any shortterm increase in supply, would only make oil usage more attractive elsewhere.

Remember, many factories and power plants buy whatever fuel is cheapest at the time. If oil drops, coal and natural gas usage are switched to burning oil.

electrictroy

"Many countries have profitable and viable trains & trollys & buses. They get off their fannys and bicycle to and from short jaunts (work,stores, &hobbies). Why can't we?"

.

Stores???

Today I'm going to the store, and I will bring home ~10 bags worth of groceries in my 70mpg Insight.

(1) Estimated energy wasted is only 1/7 a gallon.

(2) How on earth would I fit 10 bags on my bike and/or onto a subway/bus?!?!?

It's fine and dandy to suggest alternate transport solutions to cars, but at least you should THINK before you do so. It's not practical to go to the grocery store in anything except a car.

The car *is* the best solution in this case.

troy

reddogs

it wouldnt matter to Americans because they have gotten use to Big V8's, gas guzzling "Hemi's", 200+ HP for cars, and would never give it up. When gas was at 29 cents a gallon, the news media said Americans would "never stand for 50 cent a gallon gasoline", when it reached a $1.00 a gallon they proclaimed the end of 10-15 MPG cars and trucks, at $2.00 they said it broke the psychological barrier that would break the back of the Bush relection............:0)

We are spoiled on oil........we need to dig deep and hard in Alaska and maybe extend the pipeline to Siberia to get some of the "Putin's petrol".......:0)

andre1969

at Costco, so I just couldn't see bringing home several hundred dollars worth of groceries and supplies on the bus or trolley! Heck, the 35 pound container of cat litter would be enough to do ya in after trying to lug it for about a minute!

Now one thing that you CAN do is try to do your grocery shopping when you're out anyway, such as stopping off on your way home from work. That way you're not making an extra trip just to do grocery shopping. But then even that's not always feasible. For example, there's a Giant on my way to work, and I'll stop off there if I just need to pick up a few things. But the Costco is about 10-12 miles away, and not really on the way to anything that I go to on a regular basis. But in this case it's worth it to drive up there once every 2-3 weeks, because of the savings of buying all that stuff in bulk.

andre1969

the main reason that the fuel prices haven't has as big of an effect on the types of cars people buy is because it's still in plentiful supply.

Back in 1973-74 and 1980-82, when we had surges in fuel prices, coupled with limited supplies, it drastically changed the automotive landscape. The '73-74 crisis ensured that the Japanese imports would be here to stay, and really gave them a strong foothold, not to mention ushering in a whole new era of downsizing and efficiency in domestic cars.

The crisis in the early 80's changed the buying habits of plenty of people. Almost overnight people gave up their full-sized cars for compacts.

Also, another reason that people aren't giving up their bigger cars now is that you really don't see the big jump in fuel economy and savings that you used to, in going from a big car to a small one. For example, going from a Chrysler 300 Hemi that might get 25 mpg on the highway to a Toyota Corolla that might get 38 isn't going to save you much compared to back in the day when you might have traded some 10 mpg monster with a 440-460 cubic inch V-8 on some fuel-sipping little econobox that got in the high 20's.

But consumers' buying habits are changing, just not as drastically as predicted, perhaps. Just check out these SUV sales stats from Autosite.com...

http://www.aicautosite.com/editoria/asmr/svsuv.asp

Most of the bigger SUVs are seeing lower sales. The Explorer, Trailblazer, Tahoe, Envoy, Expedition, Suburban, etc have all taken a pretty big hit in sales.

brucej

The Future Is Now.
Let me share a term with this forum that I have not yet seen mentioned. The term is "peak oil." More specifically, "global" peak oil. Global peak oil is the phenomenon where the half way point of all existing oil reserves have been used.

The United States hit its peak oil year in 1970. As our our reserves ran down we imported more and more oil to a point where we now import 66% of our oil. The phenomenon of global peak oil is soon to be upon us. Some geologists claim we have already reached it. (It always takes several years to recognize it has happened after the fact.) At best it is projected that we will hit it within the next decade. Once it occurs the increased competition for this dwindling resource will only get more intense.

Think gas prices are high now? Get ready for $3.00 per gal by this coming Fall at the latest. Beyond Fall? The increased realization that gas and oil supplies are dwindling will prompt our esteemed legislators to raise taxes to force people to limit use. Two to three years from now (go ahead right it down and call me on it if I'm wrong) we will be paying between 5 and 6 dollars a gallon. That means that the equations that everyone is currently using to determine whether or not their hybrid purchase makes economic sense will quickly be blown out of the water

The bottom line is we are entering into a period where we will begin to see a fairly rapid decline of personal use vehicles (excluding the good old fashioned bicycle.) Conservation will help slow and lessen the impact but the age of oil is drawing to a close.

lemko

...my Seville STS delivers a respectable 25 MPG despite its 300-hp V-8. Back in the day, econo cars would've struggled to meet that figure. I'm happy to report my girlfriend's LaCrosse delivers excellent fuel economy - a major concern for her.

Funny, I just went to the gas station last night and there's this smug looking yuppie and his two kids with his monster Hummer H2 filling up. I should've walked over to the pump after he left to see the ridiculous figure on it.

oregonboy

Well now you've done it. You will just bring out the naysayers to call you "chicken little".

Well call me chicken little too. Read "Power Down".

james

andre1969

is really giving me a flashback to the late 70's. Now all we need is the killer bee scares along with a few bad movies to egg it along, and it'll feel like 1978 all over again!

brucej

James,
The naysayers need to get educated and do so in a hurry. I will not suggest any particular place to get informed so as not to prejuidice anybodys education. I merely suggest that people choose their serach engine of preference and type in the term "peak oil." Spend an hour reading whatever catches you eye. If you are not alarmed by what you find you are a far braver soul than I

otis1

"But the Costco is about 10-12 miles away, and not really on the way to anything that I go to on a regular basis. But in this case it's worth it to drive up there once every 2-3 weeks, because of the savings of buying all that stuff in bulk. "

Today it's worth it to make the drive. But if we ask ourself, "what if gas cost $5 or more?" then the cost of driving there starts getting expensive compared to what we save by going to costo. I admit, for the extra $10 you may spend on gas, it may still be cheaper b/c you're saving $20 (or whatever) compared to "retail" prices at the local store.

But since this is speculative board and I gaze into my crystal ball... maybe down the road, as higher gas prices impact people's driving behavior to the point where people may not want to drive to costo as much as they used to, businesses may come up with different models to make it easier for customers to get the goods (home delivery, local pickup locations, free gas w/ purchase, i dunno)

oregonboy

I've done exactly that. Now I'm looking for a 20 acre farm at least 1/2 a tank of gas away from the nearest population center.

james

otis1

"How on earth would I fit 10 bags on my bike and/or onto a subway/bus?!?!? "

necessity brings about invention- or whatever that saying is. I also do my shopping all at once, and while I don't have 10 bags, I would also find it difficult to carry 5 bags home. Yet somehow there are people who don't have cars that manage to feed their families. If the car WAS NOT an option, we would change our lifestyles and find a way to make it work. Right now, it's the best option (or at least most convenient option) for me, so I choose to drive to the store.

rorr

" Get ready for $3.00 per gal by this coming Fall at the latest."

Care to make a wager on that?

Say, the U.S. national average for regular unleaded on Oct. 1, 2005?

brucej

Yes. Let's call Fall, Oct. 1st. I'll wager you twenty dollars. If you want to bet more let me know and I'll consider your wager.

rorr

Actually, for stakes, I would rather the loser acknowledge, publicly here in the TH, that they have no idea what the heck they are talking about and their notions of what will happen in the future are based more on what they HOPE will happen rather than logic. To me, that is worth at least $20.

For tracking of the average daily fuel prices for regular unleaded, I suggest we use http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/ which shows today's average at $2.153/gallon.

brucej

rorr,

If you accept my bet thats fine. But before you do I suggest you do a search on "peak oil" Spend an hour. If you still want to wager I'll be happy to do so.

brucej

rorr,

I'm confused. I use gas and oil like everybody else. Why on earth would you think that I hope the price goes up? I HOPE I'm wrong and I'll be glad to admit it here if I am. Regarding "logic" one man's meat is another man's poison.

kyfdx

Instead of reading someone else's opinion, how about you see what October gasoline futures are selling for?

Then, if you are so certain of your vision for future prices, you could buy options on those futures and make enough money to supply all of us here on Edmunds with gasoline for the next ten years...

I think "chicken little" is fairly appropriate here...

regards,
kyfdx

rorr

Well, I just did a little Google search on "peak oil" and noted a little something on "Peak Oil Theory" posted by......Noam Chomsky.

Enough said. If this guy is in your corner, I'm assured a win.

I look forward to checking the daily averages and feeding little updates in here over the coming months.

kernick

you: Let me share a term with this forum that I have not yet seen mentioned. The term is "peak oil." More specifically, "global" peak oil.

me: while what you read may be technically true; the author may have an agenda in failing to mention that there are other sources of oil, and fuel for cars. Look back over the last week or 2, and you'll see mention that the motivation to develop coal and oil-shale conversion kick in at around $3/gal. and we have enough of that for at least 100 years. Use a search engine and type in "coal gasification"; but then again you might think they're full of it; so go to the U.S. Dept. of Energy website - doe.gov and read up on energy sources - U.S. coal reserves.

brucej

rorr,
You didn't spend enough time. Noam Chomsky is nuttier than a fruitcake but as the saying goes "Even a blind pig finds the occasional acorn." You want a source? Try Matt Simmons. Matt Simmons heads the worlds largest private investment bank for petroleum exploration (63 billion in current loans). Want another source try following:http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7304437/site/newsweek/ from this weeks Newsweek. Keep trying rorr. You need to dig a little harder. I suggested you spend and hour. You run across one nut and you think you've done your homework?

rorr

"Even a blind pig finds the occasional acorn."

Yes. And this blind pig anticipates his acorn on October 1. Bet stands. Let's just call it "blind faith" on my part.

kernick

It's not practical to go to the grocery store in anything except a car.

me: hmm, obviously people who don't have cars aren't starving to death. Maybe they've adapted. You should ask yourself if the problem is really: a) how to get 10-bags home or b) the more elementary - why you need to buy 10-bags at a time.
I think many people in NYC carry their groceries on the buses, taxis, and subways. If you don't have access to those, I'd say the car is best right now.

kyfdx

Gasoline futures..

New York Harbor... wholesale prices..

May '05 = $1.57
Jan '06 = $1.47

You can make millions!!

brucej

rorr,

When people are first told they have a disease they go into a stage of denial. Same is true when people are first introduced to topics that make them uncomfortable. Oil is finite, China and India are now consuming amounts of oil that if suggested a mere five years ago would have brought about peals of laughter.
Profound change is upon us. $3.00 a gallon gas is such an insignificant part of that change that it is barely worth mentioning.

lemko

The price of gas will be $3.50 for regular!
GM will be in Chapter 11!
And we'll all be working at WalMart!

WE'RE ALL DOOMED!!!

rorr

Yes, oil is finite.

Yes, China and India are both consuming large amounts of oil.

Yes, at some point in the future, it will exceed $3.00/gallon.

Where you and I differ is in the TIMING of the events. You believe sooner; I believe later. If history is any indicator, those who have believed "sooner" over that last 30 years have been proven wrong again.....and again....and again....and that includes several past progniscations from Mr. Chomsky.

lemko

...all the threats of $3.00 a gallon gas. They believed gas would be $3.00 a gallon by 1985 and we got the downsized FWD C-bodies! UGHHH!!!!

andre1969

who don't have cars are probably singles like what you see on Wil and Grace or "Friends", although even Joey had to go and get a '73 Caprice convertible to haul his butt around LA, and I have seen Wil driving a Range Rover.

But still, in the big cities you tend to have those corner stores that are within walking distance, and most people probably just buy enough groceries to last a couple days, versus a couple weeks. Plus, they have those "old lady carts", as we used to call them. The 2-wheeler kind that you often see bag ladies pulling around behind them, that fold up conveniently for storage.

I've known people who live in both DC and Baltimore who have gotten by without cars, but you can often do that in the bigger cities, as they've adapted with better public transit, a better spread-out of nearby markets, etc.

In contrast, where I live, they DO have public transportation. I could walk a mile to the nearest bus stop, which annoyingly is in the OPPOSITE direction from my job, the supermarket, etc.

At one time, we even had an electrified passenger railroad line that had a stop maybe 700 feet from my house. From there you could go to DC, Baltimore, or Annapolis. One little problem...it went bankrupt about 35 years before I was born. :-(