Subaru's fortunes sinking - can they turn it around?

nippononly

"But the fundamental disagreement I have with your post is that you assume that Subaru has to grow and take on the market leaders. I don't think they have to grow"

Perhaps the fundamental source of disagreement is not between and amongst the various Subaru enthusiasts, but between the Subaru Crew and the bosses at SOA who keep coming up with these arbitrary sales projections and insisting they need to grow the Subaru brand. The latest 230K projection for 2010 is just more of the same ol' same ol' from them.

The truth is, Subaru seems to get along OK at the 175-200K sales level. Now, that can't work forever of course - kyfdx has a point there, you have to draw new people to the brand without kicking off too many of your existing customers - but it can work in the near term.

While Forester sales will probably increase with this new model, I think it likely that many of the new Forester sales will be lost Outback sales, hence not much of a net gain for Subaru.

ateixeira

True, but it seems every one is an optimist.

Example: 2008 will be a dismal year for auto sales, yet everyone's forecasts for their own sales are flat or up. Something's gotta give.

I'm sure most will miss their targets this year.

Forester will steal some Outback sales, but the 2010 Outback should get a lot bigger, to set them apart more.

And before anyone says that Outback will steal Tribeca sales, there aren't many sales to steal.

dino001

It's tough. People asked for more refinement, and got it, yet the old school Subaru fans are complaining loudly. Where's my edgy WRX?

C'mon Juice - now you're twisting it. It's not about refinement people are complaining - it's about dullness and lack of inspiration. Since when edgy has to automatically mean unrefined or crude? Mazda RX-8 was definitely edgy, so was for instance Nissan Altima upon its introduction - all of course it its own class. You could still have "civilized" WRX with its softer suspension or quiter ride, but why did it have to come with those greys inside or Sebring grill? It could also keep the edge in certain feature content.

Time to rename current WRX to GT, up the "convenience goodies" (at least optional) and introduce lower volume "real" WRX with a few extra hp, STI styling, a few extra STI goodies (not all of them - don't need helical AWD, adjustable diff. or 300+ hp - just give me 6speed tranny, LS diff and SI-drive), price tag in high 20s/low 30s for loaded version. Call it WRX (stripper) and WRX Ltd (sunroof/leather) - or drop the latter if you really have to. They could have lineup:
"economical" 2.5i: (regular and premium) 17-21K
"civilized" GT: (stripped and ltd), auto-only - just make it 5AT w/VTD 22-28K
"edgy" WRX (stripped and ltd), manual only - just make it 6speed 28-34K
"outrageus" STI (stripped and ltd), make wheels a dealer accessory, as it used to be 35-40K.

Of course you could make Nav as an option, but just don't bind it with other stuff. Nav may cause price overlap between trims, but so be it.

ateixeira

The complaints I hear are about a soft suspension and body roll, yet the measured performance is just as good if not better. So it handles just as well, and rides better, yet people are complaining.

I like your WRX lineup, so I won't argue there.

Any how, people zoom right in on the WRX when you say Subaru, but the fact is the Outback and Forester pay the bills. The WRX isn't even the best selling Impreza model.

I think the changes they made garnered complaints for the WRX, but won't get the same complaints from the higher volume models that got the same changes, notably the Forester.

So if we look at the bigger picture, they won't have that problem with Forester shoppers, and there are more of them.

nippononly

a 4-way comparo in a different thread: MT tested '08 Impreza (2.5 Premium), '09 Corolla, and '08 Civic and Mazda3s.

Needless to say, Corolla scored last, big surprise. Impreza only scored third and got reallyu taken to task for having only 4 speeds in the auto, with ratios as "widely spaced as the Rift Valley", or some such literary notion. Impreza with the worst fuel economy and the most power, was almost last in acceleration. Surprising levels of body roll were also mentioned.

The Civic is a couple of years old, and the Mazda is even older. Both were judged to have better interiors and better reflexes. They liked the ride of the Impreza by comparison, though.

If Subaru is to have any success pushing the AWD as its niche, it will have to show that the AWD gives its models the edge over competing models. They liked the AWD in this comparo, but it did not give the vehicle enough edge to win.

varmint

"I think the changes they made garnered complaints for the WRX, but won't get the same complaints from the higher volume models that got the same changes, notably the Forester."

Agreed. The greater good needs to be addressed. It would be nice if Subaru could tune a little more jazz into it, but the WRX's platform mates should benefit to a level that far exceeds the problems. I consider it a growing pain.

It would be nice if Subaru could achieve a best of both worlds compromise. (Refining the chassis may be a necessary thing for the platform, but I think we all agree it is not a good thing for the WRX.) However, that kind of balance is not an easy thing to engineer. Perhaps it may be addressed with an MMC or the next FMC.

varmint

On the S600, you can't be serious. A car that was never even sold here was the foundation for Honda's success? If anything, the fact that Honda used chain drive, FWD, and live axle RWD within the span of five years proves how little specific hardware matters.

What this debate boils down to is that most companies made their reputations selling cars with a certain quality. It might be sportiness, luxury, reliability, economy, styling, or some other respected trait. Those qualities can be applied to many designs. Reliability, for example, probably has the most universal appeal. It may be applied with strong results to a sedan, a coupe, a sports car, a van, a truck, an SUV, or any other automobile.

Subaru has elected to build a reputation with specific hardware, rather than a quality. AWD cannot be applied to more than a few segments with positive results. It is not a universally respected trait and has as many drawbacks as advantages. Furthermore, the way the market is trending, those drawbacks are growing more and more damaging. As long as Subaru sticks with their hardware & design combo, they are restricted to only a few segments. To make matters worse, the company isn't especially well-suited for the most profitable of them!

paisan

Yeah - that clutch was not a big surprise to me - call it slight disapointment. I was hoping for 100k or so, to be honest. When they caugth it it probably had a few thousands less, but since the engine was out they were good not to charge me labor - just part plus flywheel labor. Still 900 bucks .

I also remember my spark plugs costing me $250, which was quite a shock. Of course, considering where they are placed, it is not such a surprise. However, since most mfr. have not 100k recommendation, rather than 60k, they could do something about it.

No offense but you got ripped off big time!

Clutch install labor is about $450
Clutch kit (OEM Exedy which includes pressure plate, disc, throwout and pilot bearings) runs $200-300

So that's about $750, INCLUDING labor.

Throw in an Exedy lightened flywheel and you are at about $950-$1000.

$250 to do the spark plugs? The plugs cost about $20 and it doesn't take more than 1 hour in labor to do them, so even at dealer prices it should cost about $120 give or take!

Sorry you got taken on the work

-mike

ateixeira

The CVT will fix that. I think they didn't use the 5 speed auto from the Legacy because they knew they had a CVT in the pipeline.

The body roll is probably due to it having a bit extra ground clearance, given it's tuned with snow belt customers in mind.

Conduct that test again in the snow, or even in the rain, and the rankings would change.

ateixeira

A company should build on their strengths. You expand using the things which you do well. That is how Honda started when they expanded beyond bikes. I think it's clearly relevant.

AWD is hardware, sure, but traction is a quality. Active safety is a quality. Balance is a quality. Neutral handling, a lack of torque steer, ... all qualities.

They would give up all those qualities by going with FWD.

Honestly, I think even RWD would make more sense. At least the sporting customers would be happy. Plus if they do it for the Celica, they'd already have the platform. They could market it heavily in the sun belt, where they are a non-presence today.

paisan

From outside the club, the problem seems to be:

How do you attract new buyers that aren't already Subaru fans?

A certain number of current Subaru owners are naturally going to quit buying Subarus.. (I know, hard to believe).. How do you attract replacements?

If you don't consider that a problem, and Subaru doesn't consider that a problem, then eventually, you'll have one small club..

You'll get new people that want a sporty ride and those who attend the Temple of AWD. Recent College Grads and the Empty Nesters.

People will leave and people will come. Having been "in the club" since 1998, I've seen folks come and go. Overall there have been more people coming than going, so that's a good thing.

-mike

nippononly

"Conduct that test again in the snow, or even in the rain, and the rankings would change."

OK, but then all they do is continue their strength in New England, Alaska, and Washington State. Not the parts of the country where the most cars are sold.

I read a blurb somewhere recently where the R1e is testing in LA as Subaru seeks to gain more of a toehold in that market. Clearly, SOA is interested in establishing sales in huge markets like SoCal, Phoenix, Texas, and Miami. Those people barely even know what rain feels like, and may have never even SEEN snow.

paisan

It rains in Miami, ALOT.

-mike

ateixeira

Well, Subaru can't abandon those markets. That's where all the current customers are. Plus that's where their dealers are, for distribution.

So they can't lower the Impreza 2.5i by two inches to reduce body roll. They'd lose Vermont (7% market share) to win Texas (0.5% market share).

They are perhaps a bit too regional. The WRX helped. It brought on soCal and Florida buyers.

They gave two R1e models to New York, actually. It was blogged on Inside Line. The car is clearly not ready for US consumption - it's right-hand drive, still has the old corporate face on it.

Still, it's an experiment, and if successful, might convince Subaru to market an electric car here.

paisan

It's definitely not ready for prime-time. Safety regs, top speeds, to mention a few.

-mike

nippononly

That's true, but if they are to sell the benefits of AWD to people in fairly dry climates, then they are going to have to do it on the basis of traction and performance improvement.

Which means they need to substantially lower and stiffen the suspension on at least the performance models - the WRXs, all the turbos in fact. Just for starters.

It will be interesting to see if comparo results like this one change when the Impreza finally gets a CVT instead of a fixed-ratio automatic. It was intriguing to see them pick automatic-equipped cars for what was a performance comparison. All four cars were available with a stick, and I would think anyone actually interested in this type of car for performance would insist on the manual anyway.

paisan: yeah, sorry, I threw in Miami without really acknowledging that of course they get oodles of rain. But I don't think Miami is a big Subaru market, so clearly the folks down there don't prioritize AWD for their transportation. Honestly, if I never went to the snow, I wouldn't want AWD either - FWD appliance cars do just fine in the rain. Snow traction is the main benefit of AWD, IMO. And for the big southwest markets I mentioned (I left out Vegas too), my remarks still stand.

ateixeira

They can lower the WRX and the Legacy GT, but not the Forester and Outback. It wouldn't work for those customers.

I could imagine them using the Outback Sport more for the snow belt, and then making the Impreza 2.5i more suited for other regions. Problem is, they haven't really marketed the Outback Sport in a decade, since Croc Dundee's nephew drove one in a commercial. Plus the two-tone turns off a lot of folks.

Car & Driver tested a manual trans Impreza 2.5i and it hit 60mph in 7.x seconds, I forget exactly. 170hp is more than adequate for that thing, especially with the manual. Remember that's their most economical vehicle.

They have a 2.0l engine that makes 156hp, IIRC, which IMHO would make a good base engine if Subaru really wants a lower starting price point. I'm sure it would help fuel economy. It would still accelerate reasonably well.

nippononly

Well, I would submit that Forester XT customers would want the sport suspension to go with the extra power under the hood. Maybe Outback turbo customers too. At the least, it should be an optional sport package for those models. Remember, a lot of people buy SUVs just for the looks and the utility, and never go anywhere near dirt roads or snow.

Didn't I see something recently, perhaps from the Tokyo auto show, talking about a naturally aspirated 2.0L Subaru making more than 200 hp? It was some kind of tuner thing, I am sure. I would applaud the addition of a smaller engine with better fuel economy to the lineup, if the new diesel won't work for the Impreza.

ateixeira

Surprisingly, the turbos have a tad extra ground clearance, but that's probably due to the front cross member under the engine being in a different position. They have 8.9" now, vs. 8.7" for the base models.

In that class, sitting up high helps sales more than a lowered suspension likely would.

The ironic thing is that it corners very flat for its class. Read Edmunds preview - they raved about how well it handled for such a tall vehicle.

There are other benefits to the extra ground clearance - things like going over speed bumps, absorbing big pot holes, etc. Plus most of the buyers are in the snow belt and want the clearance, even on the performance models.

I think they could offer a Forester STI that was lowered. The Legacy spec.B should be lowered as well, given it even has a different suspension.

dino001

I shopped around for spark plug change - everywhere similar price - $200-$250. Year - they cost $20, but it's not one hour to change them - not on DOHC turbo boxer, not at dealerships, anyway. BTW - I would have ditched the dealer long time ago, but I have Subaru bucks, which of course lowers the actual paid prices. This way I get better mechanics to work on it, which in FL is important, as not many people don't know Subarus that well.

On clutch - the kit included flywheel. I think their total parts was notch below $800 - I figured internet part price for total was, as you mentioned about $500 or so. I'm vey much aware of their markups, but this time I figured it was same difference, as their total with labor would have been $1300 or so, which figures $500 labor (similar to yours). So - yes I got ripped off on the part, but would have paid about the same if I let them put the car together (warranty would not have allowed the car to sit on the lot without completing the task), ordered part on the net and let somebody work on it again. So as you see - same difference there.

varmint

Honda used a bike engine and chain drive because that was all they had. When it didn't work, they changed their design. As written above, they had three different drive designs within 5 years.

"AWD is hardware, sure, but traction is a quality. Active safety is a quality. Balance is a quality. Neutral handling, a lack of torque steer, ... all qualities."

With the exception of traction, those are all qualities people associate with RWD. Only RWD achieves them without the added cost, without the fuel economy penalty, without the weight, without sapping power, and RWD doesn't require more than 20 years of PR for the market to appreciate it.

AWD is one step forward in a few areas and one step back in a few others. That's why a wrong wheel drive Mazda3 can beat an AWD Impreza in every performance category including balance, grip, steering, braking, and acceleration. If AWD is so great, where's the evidence?

ateixeira

Honda has always made great small engines. To this day, that is still true. They have a pickup alternative with no V8. Their luxury flagship, even, doesn't have a V8. They have stuck to their strength. Good for them.

Surely their small engine specialization relates to their motorcycle heritage.

I'm sure they outsource their axles anyway.

Shifting gears...

Active safety is not exactly something you would associate with RWD. In fact, that's probably the main reason FWD took over in most mainstream vehicles.

Shifting gears again...

The Speed3 is a phenomenal vehicle, but it has wicked torque steer, so bad that Mazda had to fine-tune the engine ECU to limit torque (turbo boost) in 1st and 2nd gear.

That's balance?

Did you know that early models had a recall for an engine mount that was failing because the front drivetrain shook so violently on hard take-offs that the engine would start to fall out of the car?

I'm totally serious.

Grip? Braking? Two words:

Summer Tires.

Phenomenal car, no doubt. I'm not criticizing the MazdaSpeed3 one bit, in fact it's my favorite FWD car.

If anything, though, it is perhaps the best example of the limitations of FWD.

paisan

I shopped around for spark plug change - everywhere similar price - $200-$250. Year - they cost $20, but it's not one hour to change them - not on DOHC turbo boxer, not at dealerships, anyway.

That sux, even me, who is by far the slowest guy who works at my shop (I mostly do the customer service, etc. stuff) can do WRX plugs in an hour. Pull battery, pull airbox, pull the washer fluid res. use 2 jointed sockets, bamo, in and out in about 40 min tops.

On clutch - the kit included flywheel.
Not bad if they replaced the flywheel, thought it was only a resurface.

-mike

dino001

Funny - they claim they have to go from bottom on my WRX. Perhaps there are different layouts of those engines depending on the car. I don't know. I had basically a concerted claim all those guys "oh - its' so hard to change them and it takes so long". They have their books and every single stage you mentioned is probably put as half our each - so it all comes to two hours total in their books. Never mind the same technician is probably doing five other cars at the same time, all billed for the same hour of course.

I wonder - if lawyers overbilling hours on their bills is a mail fraud, what about repair garages? Oh - they take money on the spot, so I suppose there is no mail in that scheme

paisan

Hmm unless there is some subie out there that I don't know about, I've done plugs on every itteration of subie to date from the 80s-07

That's a riot, and I thought I charged a lot to do the plugs at $90 including the plugs!

-mike

stever

I think you need to come to Boise for a few days and let me show you around the local lakes here Mike. We can set aside a couple of hours in the late afternoon to mess around with the Outback a little bit. :-)

paisan

No problemo steve! Would love to come out! Especially since I'm boat-less right now!

-mike

robr2

That's a riot, and I thought I charged a lot to do the plugs at $90 including the plugs!

Mike - are charging actual time or book time? You may be able to do it in an hour but if the book says 2 hours, you are getting charged for 2 hours. Plus do you charge dealership rates? It doesn't sound like it.

robr2

Honda has always made great small engines. To this day, that is still true. They have a pickup alternative with no V8. Their luxury flagship, even, doesn't have a V8. They have stuck to their strength. Good for them.

Actually juice - the rumor mill is that the next RL will get a V8, Honda is finally listening to the marketplace.

Active safety is not exactly something you would associate with RWD. In fact, that's probably the main reason FWD took over in most mainstream vehicles.

That was an addtional benefit. The primary reason was fuel economy and packaging. FWD became prevelant in the late 70's/early 80's. The reaction to the gas crisis in the form of Vegas and Pintos and Granadas were dismal - they either were efficient and cramped or large and inefficient. Switching to a FWD floorplan with the X Bodies, Omnirizons and Escort delivered both.

paisan

That's a riot, and I thought I charged a lot to do the plugs at $90 including the plugs!

Mike - are charging actual time or book time? You may be able to do it in an hour but if the book says 2 hours, you are getting charged for 2 hours. Plus do you charge dealership rates? It doesn't sound like it.

Well, we don't have a book to go by I basically charge loosely based on how long it takes us to do the job. We do a lot of the same jobs over and over, so based on how long it's taken us in the past, what "issues" can come up, and what our average time for the install is, that's how we determine the cost.

I guess that's why we are cheaper than a dealer

-mike

ateixeira

I heard that rumor, too. Let's see if they actually build it. With current oil prices, the timing is not good.

Even if they do build a V8, wanna bet it's a small displacement version with VCM standard?

Honda will always be Honda. They know their strength - advanced engines with a high specific output and good emissions and efficiency. Pretty much across the board, and not just in the automotive segment.

So we'll never see a gas guzzling V8 that can't meet CARB standards and is only sold in 45 states. Ain't gonna happen.

paisan

That is also why Honda/Acura will NEVER become a premier auto-maker. Every luxury brand for the most part has retained F/R F/A as their setups. This has kept Acura playing second fiddle to Lexus, Infiniti, BMW, Jag, Caddy, MB, etc.

-mike

ateixeira

They do fine, mike. Somewhere between being a mainstream brand and being a full-on luxury brand, Acura has found a nice middle ground of their own. Premium, upscale, whatever you want to call it.

Sure, the RL hasn't put a dent in the luxury sedan segment, but the TL and MDX are very successful, high-volume for that price level products.

I happen to like the RL, so I can't explain the slow sales. I wouldn't mind picking up a cheap used one, actually. I pointed one out to the wife, but her heart is set on a new Forester.

paisan

Oh I'm sure they do fine, but they just aren't quite luxury in my eyes. They really need at least 1 RWD V8 full sized car to Flagship the brand. Most of the "upper end" folks that I deal with consider the Acura brand to be what they send thier kids to college with even the TL/RL is only equal to a 3-series in their mind.

-mike

ateixeira

http://blogs.edmunds.com/Straightline/4599

Don't bet against a WRX-based RWD Celica now.

nippononly

Oh this IS good news! One of the more exciting pieces of product news to come out for either company in recent times is this proposed WRX-based RWD Celica (I am rather hoping Subaru will have its own version with AWD).

And so far the Toyota FHI acquisition seems to have borne no fruit whatsoever except using up the excess production capacity at SIA. While that's a good thing, it would be nice to see some sharing between the two companies that reduced costs for Subaru while increasing product offerings.

ateixeira

Well, if that was the only fruit, it was a Watermelon.

varmint

"They have a pickup alternative with no V8. Their luxury flagship, even, doesn't have a V8. They have stuck to their strength. Good for them."

Good for them, morally? Perhaps. Good for them financially? Nope. Both the flagship and truck you mention are at the bottom of the heap when sales are tallied each month.

"The Speed3 is a phenomenal vehicle..."

Probably. But I wrote about the Mazda(nospeed)3: the basic, non-turbo'd car you see every day on the street. Even without all the hi-po hardware,summer tires, and widgets it beat the everyday Impreza, and Mazda did that using FWD.

ateixeira

It's tough to judge whether or not that was a mistake. I just don't think Honda/Acura can have their cake and eat it, i.e. chase the greenies while launching new V8 engines.

Of course, I could be wrong. That has worked well for Toyota.

The Mazda3 is OK because it only has to deal with 150 lb-ft of torque. The Impreza would have 170 lb-ft (borderline, maybe) or 226 lb-ft (fuggedaboutit).

Any how, I think we can finally put the FWD discussion to bed, looks like they may soon offer a RWD only coupe, if Autocar.co.uk is correct:

http://blogs.edmunds.com/Straightline/4627

Like I mentioned in that Blog, I have mixed feelings. I think AWD should at least be optional. Ideally Toyota or Scion would sell the RWD version, and Subaru the AWD version.

The possibility of an affordable roadster has me absolutely salivating, I don't care if they badge it a Kia.

Here's my favorite concept ever, for inspiration:

dino001

Subaru's stop on selling all cars with 2.5 turbo engines due to some excessive powetrain noises. What is that about - and more important - how much damage will it do to them? Does anybody know details of it? It seems quite dramatic measure if you ask me

ateixeira

That's because we really don't know if US cars are even affected.

The engine has been in production since 2004, and even Consumer reports gives it excellent reliability scores. We have plenty of 05+ Legacy GT and Outback XT owners and not one has reported those symptoms.

They mentioned cars in other markets were affected, but we're not even sure if they mean the 2.0l turbo or the 2.5l turbo models.

It's too early to tell. This could potentially be very bad for Subaru, but it could also be nothing. At least they are handling it in the best way possible.

jeffmc

Not missed, just written about in one of the other threads... I think it was 2009 Forester, or perhaps Problems & Solutions.

***edit: It's in the Subaru Crew forum. rsholland, "Subaru Crew Cafe" #13253, 7 Apr 2008 8:30 am#13252
Latest post there says it affected 0.17% of the 2.5 turbos.***

It's the 2.5L turbo. They've isolated the VIN range it affects. Problem was popping up in other markets. Sounds like most of the vehicles hadn't made it into customers' hands yet, so they're really nipping this in the bud.

ateixeira

Cool.

0.17% is a small number, but if it's your car then it would seem really big.

Did they say if any US-sold models were affected?

jeffmc

No news... Not sure if that 0.17% is global or just for Singapore. haven't heard of any US owners who've experienced the knocking. The Subaru rep at nasioc said it seems to be something that shows up fairly quickly, not something that develops slowly after tens of thousands of miles. If you've got the problem, you should already know it, in essence.

ateixeira

Guess we have to wait and see. Could end up being a bad batch of .... piston rings? Maybe?

Who knows. They'll sort it out and narrow it down. Nowadays they can track it back to the production runs and see exactly what changed and when, then find the affected engines.

bristol2

Saw this in the NYT.

Seems to make sense to me, what do the true Subaru fans think?

link title

nippononly

Well, Subaru advertising has nowhere to go but up, so it sounds like a good thing to me.

I hope it doesn't go TOO kitschy/VW Beetle though.

robr2

The make room ad is pretty good.

I'm not too sure about the park the old one out on a cliff ad - not very green for Subura IMHO.

ateixeira

advertising has nowhere to go but up



I've seen the one where the old one tows the small boat, and the for sale sign goes on the boat.

Pretty clever, and it hits home because they use an Acadia Green Metallic one like my '98, only I think it's an S model.

nippononly

The one that you were referring to: the new Forester enters the driveway, they talk about needing to make room for it, the old Forester pulls out of the garage and you figure they are selling it, then voila! They only use it to tow the boat out of the garage to park it on the curb for sale, and put the old Forester back in the driveway.

Very cute. I like it, and I haven't liked any Subaru TV ads in a long time, when I have even noticed them at all.

The huge "LOVE" that pops onto the screen at the end is about as touchy-feely as I would want it to get though.