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Gary, thanks for that heads-up. I'd certainly consider the S-class again, especally if this GL proves to be reliable. I'm very impressed with the GL build quality and I expect it to be reliable. The S, just like the LS460L is a dream machine for luxury and a plush ride. I wouldn't want anything to interfere with that attribute. I had the S550 for the bulk of a day in test driving and was very impressed with it.
I don't think any of this was Acura's decision. I think if it was up to them, they'd still be full steam ahead with a V8 powered, RWD 7, S, LS competitor. I think Honda HQ came in with a hatchet.
If I were in charge, the beaks would be gone - tomorrow. The new electric steering systems in the TSX and TL would be replaced with the old versions that people actually liked. I'd buy new 8-speed transmissions from Aisin or ZF, and dump the 5-speeds that Acura has been using for a decade. I'd offer Type R versions with available manual transmissions for every model, and have Recaro design the seats. I'd steal designers from Audi, and have them redo every Acura interior. Plastic wood, fake aluminum, and fake carbon fiber would be banished from the brand.
I'd bring back the RSX, and offer it with SH-AWD and a turbo four for the Type R version, same with the TSX Type R. I'd bring back the CL as a soft top convertible version of the TL, with its own bodywork. I'd eliminate the RL, and have the MDX be the flagship of the brand.
Unfortunately I don't think any of the above is likely, and I predict that Acura will be crushed by a combination of Hyundai and Infiniti.
Regards,
OW
"From the capital and credit standpoint, Washington has taken all the right actions," said Dave Zuchowski, vice president of sales for Hyundai of America. "But nobody was doing anything to address confidence. It doesn't matter if you're buying a refrigerator or whatever you're buying -- you're not going to do it if you're concerned about your job and your ability to make payments."
And Hyundai has gone a big step further by launching Hyundai Assurance, a new incentive plan that allows buyers to break contracts and return vehicles if they lose their job or income. The program offers to cover up to $7,500 in negative equity on the lease or purchase of one of its cars or trucks.
Winning
Now one can feel confident to buy a Genesis and give it back if their income goes south. Interesting and effective.
Regards,
OW
Coming from mountain bikes, it's a different world. I wonder if Howard would grace us with his presence and knowledge of all things bike.
I'm looking at Carbon Fiber frames, and at least a 105 group.
There will always be financial cheats in the future because there will alway be gullible people in the future. This idea was best expressed by someone who lived over two thousand years ago:
There must be a vast fund of stupidity in human nature, or else men would not be caught as they are, a thousand times over, by the same snares . . . while they yet remember their past misfortunes, they go on to court and encourage the causes to what they were owing, and which will again produce them."
Marcus Porcius Cato, 203 BC
I may have to replace my BMW with a BMX.
Terrific to see your posts! I apologize for not replying sooner with the rest of the gang. I've been very busy in L.A. for the past week and just got back.
Great news about your personal situation, and by all means the S-class is a great reward. Good luck with your choice on that. I'm certain you will love it. I have always been a fan of that car. I still believe that it is king of its segment.
I see you noticed my F150 acquisition.... LOL. Rest assured that I still love great cars, and I still own a Porsche Carrera S, a BMW 135i convertible, and a Jaguar XJ Vanden Plas, in addition to the wife's and daughter's SUVs. Six vehicles is too many, so at this point the Porsche is the one on the chopping block because I dont' see the point of having that much money sit idle, when I prefer to drive the 135i.
The 135i is my clear favorite. As Dewey points out, the engine is a ticket-generator, and I have been lucky so far, but I can't help but to go too fast in it. It begs to fly with such ease, it is ridiculous. The car is a darned hooligan.
My Jag Vanden Plas has been awesome, and I actually like it more and more over time. Classic all the way, and the gas mileage it obtains is off the charts. Afterall, it only weights a little more than a BMW 3-Series, due to its aluminum body construction, and shares similar HP and torque figures as well.
The Porsche is for sale, so I won't say anything good about it, or I'll want to keep it... LOL. No, I'm kidding... it's an awesome vehicle and I have been blessed to own it. Time for some housekeeping though, so it is bye-bye for the 911.
The wife's MDX will need replacement in the not-too-distant future. Maybe a Mercedes GL, like Len's, but it's still too early to say, as there could be other vehicles that might hit the market before we pull that trigger.
My daughter wanted to go the hybrid route, so she selected herself a Ford Escape Limited Hybrid. Let's just say that I was a supportive dad, and the vehicle is better than I thought it would be... way better.
The F150... I don't expect to keep it very long, but in the meantime, it's a nice alternative and we treat it as a welcome member of our funky fleet.
I hope to get a hybrid sporty vehicle in the future. Either the upcoming Prius Coupe hybrid, or the upcoming Honda CR-Z Coupe hybrid might do the trick.
Business is challenging for the good TagMan at this point in time, but I expect to change our business model and get through this mess. We can't all be as fortunate as you were on your last business transaction. That was fantastic and I am so glad for you.
I enjoyed some of the poster's predictions for the upcoming year. If we all knew the future, we wouldn't call it "predicting" the future, we'd call it "reporting" the future. Investors indulge in predicting the future more than most of us, as they try to determine just what will happen to the markets, the companies, the indexes, etc. And just when they think they've got it all figured out, something unexpected comes along and changes the whole game.
Guys like Len are very good at reading all the signs that give feedback as to where things are headed. I am envious of that ability. I have typically made money the old-fashioned way, although I have made a few very good choices in real estate along my way. I kick myself, however, for letting a piece of Hawaii beachfront property go years ago that is now worth 12 million. Damn! Oh well... win some, lose some. And, lately it's been lose some. What goes up must come down? I figure it's time to go back up.
Take care, and I'll be on the lookout for more of your posts, as well as try to stay in touch with all the other posters here as well. I've been delinquent, lately.
TM
During an errand I stopped off to fill up a 2.5 gallon gas jug for my snow blower because a storm may nail us this weekend and ruin my saturday dinner plans. I noticed that the local station by me upped his regular 10 cents a gallon to $1.59 but kept his 89 and 93 prices the same as before at 1.69 and 1.79. It was the owner that served me, and I know him a bit so I asked him the business reason for that. His answer was that he can't move the higher grades very well so why raise the price. So I replied that it will cost him later. He in turn said that they are calling him everyday and in the last few days started offering discounts and incentives to buy inventory so he wasn't at all concerned. Interesting.
$1.59 is just as out of whack as $4.59. Don't you think? And from what you posted, the pressure is towards even lower prices. Unnatural, IMO.
And... How can the public invest with any confidence any more? What will fix it when market stability is in such short supply?
TM
I recommend you go to a serious bike shop or two and road test various bikes in your price range. As with mountain bikes, the good carbon fiber frame road bikes don't come cheap. I'd go with one of the Trek Madone models if I had to do it all over again. They go from around $2500 to $9000. Lance Armstrong rides them.
My main problems have been with tires-leaking valves and bad tubes-as a result, I've had some long walks back home. Luckily, up to now, I have been able to feel tire problems starting to happen, quickly brake and get off the bike. This is no joke when traveling at 25 mph. I recently had my tires filled with an insulating material to prevent flats. So far, no problems.
My new 328i came with 17" Bridgestone run-flats. Can't wait to change them out for non run-flat Michelin Pilot Sports.
Good luck and welcome to the wonderful world of road-biking!
The problem with oil is that the capacity to pump is still far greater than demand. There are so many false Chinese factors (especially the olympics) that have to removed from the normal demand factors of the past 12-18 months that so many analysts used. Now you also have the lessening of large SUV's to deal with and the fact that the recent boom in prices caused auto mfrs and the public to adjust their whole thinking to buying cars. All that has to be factored in and of course you have an economic problem. On the supply side OPEC and others got used to pumping high volumes so how do they deal with cutting those volumes back while prices fall. That's a monstrous double hit. What has happened to oil is what the Saudi's always tried to prevent by keeping adequate supply.
The problem is we had a massive hedge fund caused rally in oil when in fact we had more than adequate supply all along. So there should never have been a rally. In fact when oil hit the $80's it should have topped out there and fallen off to $55-65. If that had happened we'd have had stable prices all along and a pricepoint similar to the $55-65 range Dewey noted.
In a local weather board I sometimes post on I started a thread titled it's time to short oil. That was in late 2007 when oil was at $90. I looked like a fool for 7 months but I kept posting that oil would fall under $65 and every price rise simply meant the fall would be all the more bigger. Now folks on that board think I'm some kind of a financial genius with a crystal ball. All I was doing was looking at usage dropping while prices rose and more oil got pumped. Logic 101 said inventories had to be rising somewhere.
In all honesty I just apply logic, fundamentals and trade news (including tidbits like that 2 minute discussion tonite) to most things and if fundamentals don't add up I stay out. If fundamentals are lacking than you have anything from a ponzi scheme to irrational exhubearnce that will crash after it gets most to buy into what has become a gambling parlor rather than rational investing.
IMO oil has a false bottom in the high 20's (I seriously doubt OPEC will ever adhere to its cuts) and then trades long-term in a $40-60 range. In reality it should never have gotten aove $65.
I think the mistake most folks make in commodities is they forget everything has to go through the trade to be produced so ultimately no matter how you slice it commodities is about inventory management. Investing in inventory management is very different than investing in a stock or sector that you think is strategically well positioned.
Finally I think as lending starts to resume a normal course (late February looks reasonable to me) and fundamentals get looked at properly I think you'll see a lot of folks jump back into stocks. Commodities - don't know. i think folks got badly burned by a complete mis-understanding of the manufacturing process and followed a handful of 30 year old commodity analysts that didn't have a clue about it either. But right now I agree that many folks think we have a lot of market manipulation but i also think many think Obama policies will help guard against that. In the end the perception of what Obama might do will IMO lbe a lot more important than the reality of what Obama does do.
I think the perception will linger as more collusion gets washed out. Your post is fantastic regarding the oil markets and inventory management. When will markets learn balance? Very inefficient to me.
The federal investigation that prompted Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico to withdraw his nomination as commerce secretary offers a rare glimpse into a long-simmering investigation of possible bid-rigging, tax evasion and other wrongdoing throughout the municipal bond business.
Three federal agencies and a loose consortium of state attorneys general have for several years been gathering evidence of what appears to be collusion among the banks and other companies that have helped state and local governments take approximately $400 billion worth of municipal notes and bonds to market each year.
Muni Bid Rigs
Regards,
OW
Thank you for that well-written reply... you offer a very good insight into the aspects of supply/demand... but, I would still like to hear your take on why diesel fuel maintains a very high price. It has barely fluctuated compared to the major price swings of gasoline.
The Chinese Olympics were originally to blame, partially, with the explanation that the Chinese had been stocking up on massive supplies of diesel, as a backup to posible energy requirements during the Olympics... but that card is now played out and has proven to have been meaningless media hype. Another explanation has been that production of diesel fuel is limited compared to gasoline, and/or that production can't keep up with the demand from the trucking industry.
In your opinion, what's the real reason diesel fuel has stayed so damned expensive while gasoline prices have dropped like an anchor?
As an unfortunate consequence, of course, the modern clean diesel vehicles that have finally made their way to our shores will never get the kind of market penetration that they otherwise deserve.
TM
http://www.cfif.org/htdocs/legislative_issues/federal_issues/hot_issues_in_congr- ess/energy/Not-So-Fast-the-Electric-Cars-Buried-Study-Says.htm
gfr1
Thanks for your informative post. You certainly are well researched in the oil markets.
Just want to clarify a statement I made which is not 100 percent accurate. I had stated that oil prices in the long term cannot depart too far from marginal costs.
From Economics 101---competitive commodities markets in the long term must equate to the following:
Marginal Revenues = Marginal Costs
But in the oil industry long term marginal revenues can exceed marginal costs
Unfortunately oil is not a perfectly competive market. Certainly not with OPEC and the with the increase of if oil companies being nationalized worldwide. Dont forget most of the cheapest to drill oil reserves worldwide are in countries that are not Pro-Western. One thing that cannot be underestimated is that market oil prices can be influenced in the long term by countries with political agendas that are against the interests of the west.
You maybe right? I know there are quite a few investors who make big returns with their own market forecasts.
I am not one of them.
In my case I am completely indifferent about market forecasts. I just pick individual stocks and usually hold them for many years in the future. My focus is very narrow in the investment field " buying high margin of safety stocks" for my clients. My sole criteria for my picks are disclosed corporate financials and the financial news. Nothing else. I never communicate with anyone from corporate investor relations or read management opinions about their companies since I am not interested in paid cheerleaders. Also hypothetically all material corporate news should be publicly disclosed otherwise that would be insider information
If the markets rains or shines it does not matter to me as long as the companies I pick improve their financial fundamentals relative to their market prices.
I
Hope everything goes well.
Except I may have some bad news for you.
I read somewhere that the Honda hybrid CR-Z coupe is cancelled. I will have to google up my source but right now I am kind of pressed with time.
Take care.
Honda Axe
Regards,
OW
Certainly not with OPEC and the with the increase of if oil companies being nationalized worldwide.
What I meant was
Certainly not with OPEC and with the increase of oil companies being nationalized worldwide.
I am sure that I am biased as I drive the A8L, but I cannot believe you prefer COMMAND vs MMI. While it has been upgraded from the past, to me MB still cannot compete with MMI's simplicity, which is still much harder than the touch screen on the Lexus. Regarding the looks, I do like the new A8 grill, but I also REALLY like the front of the S550.
My approach isn't all that different from yours. I've always done best with long positions on stocks I got in early on and that I thought were well positioned. You guys may think I'm a market player but I'm cautious and really small time. I'd much prefer to invest in my own business. I use whatever business savy I have in deal making (in the past for my old company, now for my business), my own business (where I'm pursuing two new strategies that have great opportunity/synergy, despite this economy, so hence low cost investments and also this is where I really make my money) and general finance for decisions to support friends and family.
Tag,
Don't know all that much about diesel but doesn't it by and large follow home heating oil. Home heating oil is dominated by large regional locals in a similar way to cable TV. So price collusion likely plays a big role in keeping diesel over-inflated. Diesel has dropped to 2.59 in NJ and that's about half of what it was at its peak.
Lastly this brake dust all over the wheels is bad. Didn't you guys always talk about this in the past.
I will most likely be making a choice between the Honda CR-Z Hybrid Coupe and the Toyota Prius Hybrid Coupe. Both of these cars are still expected to make it into production.
The Honda CR-Z already exists in concept form (as a coupe), but the Prius has only been shown in an artist's rendition. If a convertible were to ever become a reality, I'd check it out, but it's not that important to me with this next hybrid. I just want the car to look terrific, drive nicely, and deliver stellar gas mileage. So far, there seems to be a good chance that the upcoming CR-Z and Prius Coupes might actually meet my requirements.
TM
LOL... Brake dust from Mercedes vehicles is awful... and the BMWs are even worse. :sick:
I can't go one small trip in my 135i without the front wheels looking like hell. I have intentions of changing to alternative ceramic pads when these wear out... if I still own the car. LOL.
There are ceramic pads available for your GL as well. You might want to check them out. Simple solution really.
TM
Well... I can't believe it!
So, I Googled this, among other websites that attempt to explain it. But, I'm not convinced... because if the demand is so great for diesel and so low for gasoline (relatively speaking to the productions levels), why don't the refineries make the necessary production adjustments? That would be normal business practices, so I suspect that there is an artificial shortage held in place to keep the price (and profits) high.
The additional taxes imposed on diesel fuel just don't add up enough mathematically to account for the massive price differential between gas and diesel.
I'm sorry, but I just don't believe that there isn't some level of market manipulation going on here.
Here's the site...
link title
Well, it makes little difference to me anyway. I'm a hybrid guy now.
TM
Besides which, diesel is used by the railroads, the trucking industry and construction; those demands tend to be much less price-flexible than that for gasoline. Price on diesel (or jet A) goes up, you feed it through to the customers. Price on gasoline goes up, people drive less, demand drops. Huge difference.
Those two things, plus the recent (~2 yrs ago) low-sulfur requirement, have driven the cost of diesel above that of gasoline, perhaps to stay. Perhaps not.
As to the earlier point regarding fuel oil prices driving diesel, I'm not so sure. Airlines, railroads & truckers can go many hundreds (or thousands) of miles to buy fuel at the most attractive prices. I still remember waiting to get to LaGrange, TX, so I could fill my 150 gal tanks with 44 cent per gallon fuel (this was in '78), as opposed to spending all of 56 cents a gallon elsewhere.
Diesel is the worthwhile commodity. Gasoline is a waste product. The world market appears to agree.
Expect far worse for the year 2009.
The biggest hope for BMW during 2009 is pre-owned sales.
Does anybody want to buy a pre-owned 07 BMW 335i from me? But when purchasing my BMW 335i please dont ask me for my repair records since I dont have enough binders to keep track of them.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=aE7P22QvyOuI&refer=germany
I believe that this has more to do with the economic and demographic changes over the past 15 years than anything else. Car enthusiasts like us will always make certain sacrifices to drive what we want if things are tight but most of the expansion of the premium market has been with people who were badge buyers in my opinion.
Look around your neighboorhoods or comunities, how many soccer mom's are driving X3's or RX's because of the badge? Most of these folks are not premium car enthusiasts but they have played a big role in this market expansion. Even younger people right out of college have been able to lease a 3-series for $300/mo due to BMW's residual funding, many years ago the same type of kids coming out of colleges were happy to get a Camaro or an Accord.
The sudden shrinking of this previously available market may cause the top players (MB, BMW, Audi, Lexus, Jag) to really work hard on their product and keep purchase transaction prices in line to fight for share of a smaller market. This may be a benefit to guys like us who are always going to buy cars in this class.
My theory may not hold 100% but it will be interesting to watch how this economic downturn affects this market, we may really see more competition for our dollar.
Ah, how do I envy all you *&^%&$%$s who enjoy sunshine 365 days a year. :P :P :P
I'll research the web site for you (from the BMW forum) with the recommended info for you. It was a while back.
Regards,
OW
They perform every bit as well as the factory pads but they shed next to no dust. Before installing these, I'd clean my wheels once or twice a week. Now I get down on my knees & clean my wheels once a year - even though they aren't as dirty as they used to be after just a week with the old pads.
My only regret is that I didn't buy them years earlier.
I'm a brand new owner of a Scott addict R4. $3,899.99 retail, for the 08 closeout price of $2700.00.
sub 17" lbs
Mercedes-Benz SUV
Here is the main link so you can compare different brands.
Brands
Sounds like the ticket to clean wheels year round!
Regards,
OW
I agree with everything with what you had posted. Except I dont think we will see great price competition in the future as we did in the past. The following may sound like a contradiction ....During hard times it's best to focus on selling higher priced goods to fewer people. Despite the contradiction that is what the luxury business is all about--EXCLUSIVITY.
Cheap credit made affordable leasing progammes possible for luxury auto marques . Unlike the past exclusive luxury marques started catering to the mainstream middle classes. But now that the credit tap has been turned off this low priced INCLUSIVITY will be replaced by high priced EXCLUSIVITY.
Thanks to this new period of Economic De-Leveraging the BMW 3 Series and the MB C Class will continue to be sold but at a far lower volumes and at far higher prices /lease rates than what had existed in the past.
I hope Jag doesn't go away...
Regards,
OW
I've never been able to get past the "Chevy Caprice" stigma of the column shifter in the old 7 and a few MB products. They can fancy it up all they want, but a column shifter is a column shifter, and has no place in anything trying to be a luxury car. I'm glad BMW abandoned that idea.
As for brake dust, a bit of P21S wheel cleaner takes care of it right away.
Check the tire pressures at least twice a week and enjoy.
Amazing isn't it how light these bikes are? Makes hill-climbing a breeze.
I hope the Scott brings you many exhilarating hours of riding pleasure.
Nice communicating with you once again. Happy New Year!
As do I. It adds the extra bit of aggression that the S-V8 is lacking, without coming off clownish and "fast and furious" like the IS-F or recent AMGs. Should definitely give the Germans something to think about. The real question though is what will the new XJ look like?
Good question...I found this from last November:
While the fate of Jaguar is yet to be decided, work continues behind closed doors on the next-generation Jaguar XJ. It’s no secret the new Jaguar XF has taken the world by storm but the flagship is still to remain with the XJ. Now that the XF is out and is ready to hit the roads, Jaguar’s design team, lead by Ian Callum, is now hard at work on the next-generation XJ.
Sources say that the next-generation XJ will get a revised family of 5.0 liter V8 engines with direct-injection and superchargers. A new supercharged V6 is also in the works that could produces above 300 horsepower. A 3.0 liter diesel could also be on the cards for the U.S. market.
Insiders are saying that the next-generation XJ will be even more aggressive looking than the new XF. The 2010 XJ is said to be taking a coupe-like form.
Of course all this relies on whether the new owners of Jaguar are pleased by the car. So if they hate it, Ian Callum may leave Jaguar and the Jaguar XJ will just be lame.
Regards,
OW
As to control systems, I judge these systems by taking my 17 yr old son with me and let him check it out while I drive. He takes to new technology much faster than I do. We both thought the latest version of the COMAND was easier to use than the MMI (last time I tested was in a '07 8L), but in both cases I really just wanted to reach out and touch the screen like I do in the my Lexus LS (in fact, I did it multiple times out of habit and frustration!).
The reality probably is that once you get used to a system, they all (even latest BMW?) are fine. But touch screen is the most intuitive and easiest to learn.
I would agree with that. It's a bit weird that VW and Porsche have picked up touch systems just as Lexus is starting to phase them out in favor of their stupid mouse thing. The MMI system in the S6 and touch system in the XK both work reasonably well, though neither is perfect. One thing is for sure, they both mop the floor with the horrendous pre-iDrive relic in the X3.
The old COMAND system was awful, but the new one has been generally well received by the automotive press. It's just too bad that Mercedes interior designers have been stuck on their "Hey, remember the '80s?" kick. The outside of the new E-class looks like a Chinese knock off of an E-class, and the inside looks just like the interior of the Benz I sold back in '96.
I agree with circlew... I also hope Jag sticks around.
But, as I've posted before, I don't believe it will.
TM
Amen.
Touch screen with a logical GUI is clearly superior.
TM
I'm a sucker for a pretty face.
Regards,
OW
I'm no fan of the front end, which resembles Lexus in more ways than one. However, the rear quarters and the interior are a beaut.
TM