Experience finding a 2020 Tacoma lease during COVID

mokhir

So let me preface: I am a noob to leasing. I read a ton of guides, learned formulas, and built my spreadsheets. Today I called 7 dealerships with the following details.

Details:
Tacoma TRD Off Road 4x4 Double Cab Auto 36/12
Tacoma TRD Sport 4x4 Double Cab Auto 36/12
Tacoma TRD SR5 4x4 Double Cab Auto 36/12

Residual: 74%,
MF .00210 in Seattle, WA.

All 7 dealerships reported to me the same exact three things:
1. "We have no Tacomas on the lot." All Tacomas are due to arrive between 08/26 -08/31 Some offered for my to make a deposit on a deal sheet and then come back later. Some just said "tough luck"
2. They will not do ANY discounts or adjusted cap cost for a vehicle that is currently being shipped to the dealership. They all said they would only sell at MSRP.
3. There was a big COVID shutdown of Tacoma production that went on for about 2 months (60+ days) and the current supply of cars is draining off the lots.

Things I learned:
1. I made a big mistake calculating MSRP and residual value. I though that residual value is on the MSRP of the base model so I kept trying to find Tacomas that were stock with no options. I realize now I can lease a good Tacoma with nice options and it won't make that big of a difference.
2. I am a dummy for trying to negotiate a discount during these dealers don't even have the trucks on lots. Almost all of them laughed at me, only 1 dealer offered a $1000 below MSRP discount. But couldn't help with the MF.


My questions to you:
1. I think the best course of action is now to wait until Labor day sales and see if the restock happens and maybe then we can start finding some discount deals.
2. What can I do to get a good deal? The dealers wouldn't budge off MSRP really. I read story on reddit of people getting $4,000 off a brand new 4Runner in 2017. Is that still possible today?
3. Is there any benefit for me waiting?

Generous Edmunds community, I appreciate your help!

Michaell

mokhir said:

So let me preface: I am a noob to leasing. I read a ton of guides, learned formulas, and built my spreadsheets. Today I called 7 dealerships with the following details.

Details:
Tacoma TRD Off Road 4x4 Double Cab Auto 36/12
Tacoma TRD Sport 4x4 Double Cab Auto 36/12
Tacoma TRD SR5 4x4 Double Cab Auto 36/12

Residual: 74%,
MF .00210 in Seattle, WA.

All 7 dealerships reported to me the same exact three things:
1. "We have no Tacomas on the lot." All Tacomas are due to arrive between 08/26 -08/31 Some offered for my to make a deposit on a deal sheet and then come back later. Some just said "tough luck"
2. They will not do ANY discounts or adjusted cap cost for a vehicle that is currently being shipped to the dealership. They all said they would only sell at MSRP.
3. There was a big COVID shutdown of Tacoma production that went on for about 2 months (60+ days) and the current supply of cars is draining off the lots.

Things I learned:
1. I made a big mistake calculating MSRP and residual value. I though that residual value is on the MSRP of the base model so I kept trying to find Tacomas that were stock with no options. I realize now I can lease a good Tacoma with nice options and it won't make that big of a difference.
2. I am a dummy for trying to negotiate a discount during these dealers don't even have the trucks on lots. Almost all of them laughed at me, only 1 dealer offered a $1000 below MSRP discount. But couldn't help with the MF.


My questions to you:
1. I think the best course of action is now to wait until Labor day sales and see if the restock happens and maybe then we can start finding some discount deals.
2. What can I do to get a good deal? The dealers wouldn't budge off MSRP really. I read story on reddit of people getting $4,000 off a brand new 4Runner in 2017. Is that still possible today?
3. Is there any benefit for me waiting?

Generous Edmunds community, I appreciate your help!

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

corvette

There seem to be inventory issues due to COVID. Get on the Leasehackr forum, and see whether there is availability within reasonable driving distance of you. I leased my Tundra a day's drive away and don't regret it one bit.

mokhir

corvette said:

There seem to be inventory issues due to COVID. Get on the Leasehackr forum, and see whether there is availability within reasonable driving distance of you. I leased my Tundra a day's drive away and don't regret it one bit.

I'll try out leasehackr. I'm open for a Tundra as well. Thank you for the advice

mokhir

Michaell said:

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

Got it, thanks for the direct answer.

Do you believe that dealer will start having normal inventory values in a few months?
Essentially, will it get better or worse for buyers if we wait a bit?

Michaell

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

Got it, thanks for the direct answer.

Do you believe that dealer will start having normal inventory values in a few months?
Essentially, will it get better or worse for buyers if we wait a bit?

Sorry, my crystal ball is in the shop for maintenance.

oldfarmer50

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

Got it, thanks for the direct answer.

Do you believe that dealer will start having normal inventory values in a few months?
Essentially, will it get better or worse for buyers if we wait a bit?

The general consensus among the YouTube experts is that in 45 days prices will drop when supply/demand rebalance. There’s no doubt you are leasing at the top of the market.

mokhir

oldfarmer50 said:

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

Got it, thanks for the direct answer.

Do you believe that dealer will start having normal inventory values in a few months?
Essentially, will it get better or worse for buyers if we wait a bit?

The general consensus among the YouTube experts is that in 45 days prices will drop when supply/demand rebalance. There’s no doubt you are leasing at the top of the market.

Ok, got it. I appreciate the info. Thank you

mokhir

Michaell said:

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

Got it, thanks for the direct answer.

Do you believe that dealer will start having normal inventory values in a few months?
Essentially, will it get better or worse for buyers if we wait a bit?

Sorry, my crystal ball is in the shop for maintenance.

I can sell you a new crystal ball, at MSRP no incentives, waddaya say? :P

Michaell

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

Got it, thanks for the direct answer.

Do you believe that dealer will start having normal inventory values in a few months?
Essentially, will it get better or worse for buyers if we wait a bit?

Sorry, my crystal ball is in the shop for maintenance.

I can sell you a new crystal ball, at MSRP no incentives, waddaya say? :P

Nah, I like my old one just fine. None of that fancy hi-tech stuff on it.

pensfan83

When I leased our Tacoma a year ago I was able to get close to a 9% discount off sticker, which at that time was considered the going rate, give or take a few percent depending on location. With inventory so tight, especially on trucks like the Tacoma, Colorado, Canyon, etc. it's a sellers market so you can either pay the current market value or sit tight.

Something to consider if you can swing it, is to do a one pay lease through Toyota. You would need to run the numbers with the subvented rate and the standard rate (required with one pays) to see which is lower but if you can front load the payments it may result in a lower per month average than if you did a 24 or 36 month lease.

oldfarmer50

mokhir said:

oldfarmer50 said:

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

Got it, thanks for the direct answer.

Do you believe that dealer will start having normal inventory values in a few months?
Essentially, will it get better or worse for buyers if we wait a bit?

The general consensus among the YouTube experts is that in 45 days prices will drop when supply/demand rebalance. There’s no doubt you are leasing at the top of the market.

Ok, got it. I appreciate the info. Thank you

Here’s a chart I posted over on the CCBA board. Maybe it’ll give you prospective.

mokhir

oldfarmer50 said:

mokhir said:

oldfarmer50 said:

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

Got it, thanks for the direct answer.

Do you believe that dealer will start having normal inventory values in a few months?
Essentially, will it get better or worse for buyers if we wait a bit?

The general consensus among the YouTube experts is that in 45 days prices will drop when supply/demand rebalance. There’s no doubt you are leasing at the top of the market.

Ok, got it. I appreciate the info. Thank you

Here’s a chart I posted over on the CCBA board. Maybe it’ll give you prospective.

Thanks for providing that! I never knew about cox auto analysist reports. I dug through a few and I found this horrifying chart. The Toyota days of new inventory is 34, below the 62 days national average..




Even worse: "Toyota Tacoma pulled down the average with under 20 days’ supply."
I think I've picked the worst time in history to buy a Toyota Tacoma

Michaell

mokhir said:

oldfarmer50 said:

mokhir said:

oldfarmer50 said:

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

Got it, thanks for the direct answer.

Do you believe that dealer will start having normal inventory values in a few months?
Essentially, will it get better or worse for buyers if we wait a bit?

The general consensus among the YouTube experts is that in 45 days prices will drop when supply/demand rebalance. There’s no doubt you are leasing at the top of the market.

Ok, got it. I appreciate the info. Thank you

Here’s a chart I posted over on the CCBA board. Maybe it’ll give you prospective.

Thanks for providing that! I never knew about cox auto analysist reports. I dug through a few and I found this horrifying chart. The Toyota days of new inventory is 34, below the 62 days national average..




Even worse: "Toyota Tacoma pulled down the average with under 20 days’ supply."
I think I've picked the worst time in history to buy a Toyota Tacoma

Ah, but Ford has 88 days of inventory.

Perhaps you should pick up a Ranger instead? Seems like there are plenty of those available.

mokhir

pensfan83 said:

When I leased our Tacoma a year ago I was able to get close to a 9% discount off sticker, which at that time was considered the going rate, give or take a few percent depending on location. With inventory so tight, especially on trucks like the Tacoma, Colorado, Canyon, etc. it's a sellers market so you can either pay the current market value or sit tight.

Something to consider if you can swing it, is to do a one pay lease through Toyota. You would need to run the numbers with the subvented rate and the standard rate (required with one pays) to see which is lower but if you can front load the payments it may result in a lower per month average than if you did a 24 or 36 month lease.

Ahh I'm such a fool I should've gotten a car last year. Back then I was fresh out of college and never ran the numbers, but looking at it now with the 0% discount it's twice the monthly payment.

I'm thinking to wait until the late October/early November. A sales manager told me the 2021 Tacomas will be available then. So as soon as I see one on lot I'll have all my #s prepped and go in with my offer ready to sign.

mokhir

Michaell said:

mokhir said:

oldfarmer50 said:

mokhir said:

oldfarmer50 said:

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

Got it, thanks for the direct answer.

Do you believe that dealer will start having normal inventory values in a few months?
Essentially, will it get better or worse for buyers if we wait a bit?

The general consensus among the YouTube experts is that in 45 days prices will drop when supply/demand rebalance. There’s no doubt you are leasing at the top of the market.

Ok, got it. I appreciate the info. Thank you

Here’s a chart I posted over on the CCBA board. Maybe it’ll give you prospective.

Thanks for providing that! I never knew about cox auto analysist reports. I dug through a few and I found this horrifying chart. The Toyota days of new inventory is 34, below the 62 days national average..




Even worse: "Toyota Tacoma pulled down the average with under 20 days’ supply."
I think I've picked the worst time in history to buy a Toyota Tacoma

Ah, but Ford has 88 days of inventory.

Perhaps you should pick up a Ranger instead? Seems like there are plenty of those available.

I love the Ranger lariat! But when I did the math I'd need ~15% off MSRP to get it close to what 0% off MSRP Tacoma would cost me haha. Maybe for my next car

oldfarmer50

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

mokhir said:

oldfarmer50 said:

mokhir said:

oldfarmer50 said:

mokhir said:

Michaell said:

Market economies from 2017 have nothing to do with the market today.

Production was suspended, and dealers are running short of inventory; this gives them leverage when folks want to negotiate a deal.

The MF is the best available for top tier credit; you aren't going to get it any lower.

New programs from Toyota will be released on 9/1; we don't have any predictions on what they will look like.

Got it, thanks for the direct answer.

Do you believe that dealer will start having normal inventory values in a few months?
Essentially, will it get better or worse for buyers if we wait a bit?

The general consensus among the YouTube experts is that in 45 days prices will drop when supply/demand rebalance. There’s no doubt you are leasing at the top of the market.

Ok, got it. I appreciate the info. Thank you

Here’s a chart I posted over on the CCBA board. Maybe it’ll give you prospective.

Thanks for providing that! I never knew about cox auto analysist reports. I dug through a few and I found this horrifying chart. The Toyota days of new inventory is 34, below the 62 days national average..




Even worse: "Toyota Tacoma pulled down the average with under 20 days’ supply."
I think I've picked the worst time in history to buy a Toyota Tacoma

Ah, but Ford has 88 days of inventory.

Perhaps you should pick up a Ranger instead? Seems like there are plenty of those available.

I love the Ranger lariat! But when I did the math I'd need ~15% off MSRP to get it close to what 0% off MSRP Tacoma would cost me haha. Maybe for my next car

Normally, I’d say it’s possible to get close to 15% off this time of year but pickup prices have risen the most of all vehicles.