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Thank you, pf. This is what I've been saying for a couple weeks now. I also read about Saudi Arabia stating they would OPEC to raise their quotas, etc. The problem is, SA is suggesting raising the quotas to what is actually being produced now, so that action would not affect the actual amount of oil on the market.
The further problem is only SA and perhaps Kuwait have any excess production capacity available anyway. I believe SA alone can only produce an additional 1-2M bpd. I think futures traders react to that.
The biggest producer says lets raise quotas. Traders know the "new" quota is simply what's actually being produced (since everyone in the market knows OPEC members routinely produce above quota). It just isn't as simple as: "OPEC, stop screwing us and stop holding back" or "Bush, why don't you do something about those oil producers" (like what?) or "Oil companies, stop charging us more for a product whose raw material is at prices not seen since 1990".
On the price of a barrel of oil I believe there are a couple of factors:
1) Production is a little short.
2) Not enough refineries up & running to make "American" blended gas.
3) By far the biggest problem is the speculators on the futures market. They are driving this as much as anyone.
Just my .02
Duncan
Shell, Naples FL
87 - $2.019
89 - $2.059
93 - $2.129
I got curious so I went into Quicken and pulled up my first quarter auto fuel expenses to find out how much money we spend on our two vehicle per week. Comes out to about $23/week. That's with the wife drivng about 550 miles/week and me filling in the rest. (Probably about 125-150) Taking the price at March 1 of $1.69 and the current price of $1.95, that's about a 15% increase, or about $3.50 more per week. I'll have to see what the second quarter brings!
I've also heard that the amounts of oil that we could release wouldn't change anything that's causing the prices to run up right now.
Come on folks... show a little backbone and stop the panic!
Mazda Mania
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PF Flyer
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kcram
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PF Flyer
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PF Flyer... I hope the news item you cited will lead to prices dropping as quickly as the opposite news caused them to rise. I doubt it, though.
But they'll likely fall sometime
http://www.westegg.com/inflation/
It only goes to the year 2002 however it is interesting to look at past prices and see how that compares.
Ive read where people mourn for the days when gas cost a quarter a gallon in the 60's. Since Im 45 years old, I was more interested in my Matchbox cars then real cars back then, but lets say it was 1965:
What cost $.25 in 1965 would cost $1.40 in 2002.
In 1973 my dad complained about gas being 45 cents a gallon on a trip out West, it was typically around 32 cents a gallon in Ohio. Putting those numbers in the calculator I get this:
What cost $.32 in 1973 would cost $1.32 in 2002.
What cost $.45 in 1973 would cost $1.86 in 2002.
In 1979 there were big headlines in the paper and lots of news coverage, as gas hit a dollar a gallon:
What cost $1 in 1979 would cost $2.65 in 2002.
In 1981 I bought my first new car, a Dodge Colt. I filled the tank with gas that cost around $1.30:
What cost $1.30 in 1981 would cost $2.73 in 2002
In 1992 during the Gulf War gas hit at least 1.80 a gallon, up from 1.40 or so:
What cost $1.40 in 1992 would cost $1.78 in 2002.
What cost $1.80 in 1992 would cost $2.28 in 2002.
So at a number of times in the past 27 years of my driving life, Ive been paying much more than 2$ a gallon.
Well, unfortunately, just because something's been done before, doesn't mean it's a good idea. The SPR was created during/after the 70's oil crisis with the intent that if a shortage (whether OPEC created or not) ever occurred, we could access the oil needed to run the country. Never, EVER, was the intent to use it as a tool to affect the market.
At any rate, as I recall, the last time there was a release from the SPR is was in the winter so there would be additional oil to refine into heating fuel. It was partially to affect the price of heating fuel, but also to head off any shortage that, then, was actually looming. Please cite the last time there was a release from the SPR at time when it's only true reason was to affect pricing. I will give you credit for that, if true, then yes, it did occur. It still doesn't make it right.
Anyway, what is all this talk about "relief"? Geesh. I want relief from high milk prices! I want relief from high city water prices! Release more water! This is "relief" would be the result of an unnatural market intervention and what happens once the market factors this additional oil into its pricing? It will return to a higher level, since that is is what the market demands now.
Of course, it's also too early in the election year for Bush to do anything even if he could. Come October or so, if prices are still at the current level, look for Bozo the President to pull out all the stops (we'll see what he does about the Iraq mess his daddy and he created, too, for that matter).
Gas here ~$2.2449 for 87 octane.
Press Release
New York's Senator
CHARLES E. SCHUMER
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 24, 2000
SCHUMER: OIL RELEASE WILL LOWER PRICES FOR NEW YORKERS
US Senator Charles E. Schumer, who originated the call to release oil from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over a year ago, today announced that President Clinton's decision to release 30 million barrels of oil from the SPR should significantly lower home heating oil costs this winter. Schumer repeatedly lobbied President Clinton, Energy Secretary Bill Richardson and Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to tap into the SPR to help avert an economic crisis for New York and the nation as a whole.
"President Clinton's decision to release 30 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will lower home heating oil costs and prevent many New Yorkers from having to choose between heating their homes and paying for basic necessities like food and clothing. Those who label the President's decision 'election year politics' either do not understand the severity of this crisis or simply don't care," Senator Schumer said.
With the cost of oil recently exceeding $37 per barrel, New Yorkers faced prices as high as $2.48 per gallon to heat their homes this winter, nearly double last winter's average price of $1.31 per gallon. The release of 30 million barrels of oil from the SPR could reduce prices by as much as $7 per gallon, saving consumers hundreds of dollars. In addition to its immediate impact upon prices, releasing oil from the SPR before October 1 provides enough time to process, refine and deliver the oil to consumers before the onslaught of winter.
"Bill Clinton and Al Gore deserve credit for standing up to the oil industry, facing down OPEC, and protecting our economy. New Yorkers were already hit with soaring electricity bills this summer. Anyone who has ever had to dig deep into their pockets to pay for heating oil, gas or electricity can appreciate this decision," Senator Schumer added.
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PF Flyer
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Looking at my records, I had 'em top off the tank on 11/4/03, which was when I started moving in. On 12/23/03 they put in 98 gallons, 151 gallons on 2/4/04, and then on 4/20/04 they topped it off again, with 137 gallons. So, not counting when they topped it off on 11/4/03, I've used about 447 gallons for the winter, which came out to a total cost of about $500, which ain't too bad, I guess.
If heating oil shot up to $2.00+ a gallon though, I have a feeling I'd be turning the window air conditioners around backwards, and seeing if I could get any heat out of 'em! ;-)
Glad I didn't buy that Acura a few months ago that requires premium gas! :-)
I really don't get you, at all. This is truly, an absolutely illogical thing to say. I don't have to ask ABC anything. You spout off about how there was a release from the SPR before, blah, blah, with what seems to me to be a truly superior (yet entirely uninformed) attitude about this whole thing. I challenged you to put up or shut up and I get this remark that essentially says "uh, well, geez if you want to know if I'm right, ask these guys". So you don't know? Or you're guessing? Or what?
Pf flyer did the research and geez, guess what? The last time there was a release from SPR it was to affect heating fuel pricing. (In addition to the fact that yes, they wanted to lower the price, there was an actual or potential shortage of heating fuel--which is why the price was so high! I'm pretty sure that's what I said, wasn't it? I was wrong though, that it wasn't in winter, as I thought. Sorry.
As for this: "What's the difference?" What do you mean? All the difference in the world between reducing gas prices just so you can be complacent in getting what you want to make YOU happy and reducing prices of a basic human need. (And I don't want HEAR about how driving ANY vehicle ANYWHERE is a basic human need on the level of keeping the heat on). It's not my fault you live in Alabama and rarely, if ever, need heat. However, most Americans do in the winter.
Reducing gas prices from NON-RECORD levels is not a funtion of the SPR. Making heating oil available and affordable, while not a "crises" in the strictest sense, the benefit derived is greater than simply knocking a quarter off the pump price of gas.
Come to the chat tonight. We can kick gas prices around too!
Join the Subaru Crew every Thursday evening for a chat session from 6-7pm PT/9-10pm ET. The chat room opens about 15 minutes before the scheduled start time, so stop on in, even if it's just to say Hello! All things Subaru is the general theme, but anything automotive is fair game too. Come on in and get to know some of your fellow Town Hallies better! See you there...
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PF Flyer
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But anyway, from a year ago yeah, things might not seem so bad...but most people don't think so long-term! They're just remembering from a few months ago, when gas was still pretty cheap!
87 - $1.969
89 - $2.069
93 - $2.149
94 - $2.189
diesel - $1.659
anybody need diesel? Come to northern NJ...
kcram
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"I was simply stating what was reported by ABC news and you come down on me a like a ton of bricks as if I was the one who originally made the statements."
No, you weren't. And if you were, that's not what you posted. Let's review:
Post 1701 (You):
"Our oil reserves have been release before for the sole purpose of dropping prices, and it's always worked. There's no reason why it wouldn't work now as well. The reserves should be released to give us some relief for the summer. By fall, prices should start coming back down on their own."
I replied in post 1703 (excerpted):
"Please cite the last time there was a release from the SPR at time when it's only true reason was to affect pricing. I will give you credit for that, if true, then yes, it did occur. It still doesn't make it right."
You replied in post 1705:
"You'd have to ask ABC news exactly when it took place, they're the ones who reported it. They said Clinton did it."
And my reply was the one you felt was confrontational and bitter. Why do you think? Nowhere in 1701 do you even reference any ABC News report. You put a statement out there yourself, unattributed and subject to impeachment. I did that in 1703, asking you to cite a time when the SPR was released to lower gas prices. Your reply then was 1705, and if you feel I'm confrontational and bitter, then I took that to be flippant and arrogant, as in "eh, ask these guys, they said it, it must be true, so I said it, too."
The problem is a) the ABC News report you referenced in 1693 was about Bush releasing oil now and that IF he did, it would reduce prices. If that ABC News report discussed the release during Clinton's term, you never mentioned it. Or it was never stated in the report at all. I don't know. What I do know is even IF they did mention that release it still makes your statement in 1701 incorrect, since the release then was to increase home heating oil supply and reduce the price of such--it had nothing to do with gas prices and you still haven't cited the last time there was a release from the SPR soley to reduce prices of gasoline.
So perhaps you can understand why I am "confrontational and bitter" when having a conversation with you has nothing to do with salient arguments and proper logic, but heaps of hyperbole and simple complaining.
I don't deny that higher gas prices have an effect on people's lives. I DO drive and I DO pay the higher prices. I don't deny that higher prices can impact our economy. But, blaming the President (one that I DON'T support, DIDN'T vote for and generally have an inflamed feeling of disrespect for) for not doing anything about something over which he has no control and blaming oil companies for pricing that also beyond their control, is out and out ridiculous.
We simply disagree on the bottom line of the situation. You can't help but to find SOMEONE, SOMETHING to blame--that with prices this high, something can or should be done or something nefarious is going on. I accept it as an aspect of a free market, global economy. A product, that by your admission is vital to the largest economy on Earth, has its demand increasing by leaps and bounds and its ability to be refined into usable products limited. A product whose price is set by a system driven in part by emotion and gut.
Unless I'm missing something and you're some sort of industry insider guru, I highly doubt you know enough to state, without equivocation, that if we do this, prices will come down or prices are so high because of that. If you honestly believe that, then you're blind the sheer complexity of the entire system.
Mt. Arlington Exxon, up three cents to all gas grades - 2.069 - 2.149 - 2.249
Tonight:
87 - $2.129 +6
89 - $2.219 +7
93 - $2.319 +7
kcram
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Smart Shopper and Wagons Message Boards
May 03 $1.35 - $1.39
June $1.35 - $1.39
July $1.35 - $1.45
Aug $1.43 - $1.63
Sept $1.53 - $1.65
Oct $1.47 - $1.53
Nov $1.39 - $1.49
Dec $1.39 - $1.49
Jan 04 $1.49 - $1.59
Feb $1.55 - $1.65
Mar $1.65 - $1.69
Apr $1.69
May $1.79 - $1.95 (currently at $1.99)
PF Flyer
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And to think I was griping about $1.959 a gallon last week!
But neither are you...
There's still no quantification
escalation in nationwide prices, is the question as to why it is so much higher on the west coast than anywhere else!
Let's put this to rest once and for all. Gasoline is not home heating oil. Virtually 100% of us use, or are directly affected by (increased shipping cost of goods, etc) the price of gasoline. From the Dept of Energy website...
"Of the 107 million households in the United States, approximately 8.1 million use heating oil as their main heating fuel. Residential space heating is the primary use for heating oil, making the demand highly seasonal. Most of the heating oil use occurs during October through March. The area of the country most reliant on heating oil is the Northeast."
So approximately 7.5% of us are affected by the home heating oil price, and even that is only for a portion of the year.
And I was wondering how that Sept 2000 release affected prices of home heating oil. So I found this at the Dept of Energy site as well...
Sure looks like prices rose just as high and maybe even a bit higher over the winter of 2000-01 as they did the previous year. And the increase in prices happened earlier as shown by the width of the price "spike" The determining factor sure appears to be the price of crude oil and the release of the reserves didn't seem to lower the price at all. I know the INTENTION of the release was to reduce prices, but it would be a real stretch to look at the facts and say that prices were reduced at all. Perhaps prices were "moderated", but the chart sure doesn't seem to show much of that either.
BTW... stretch my "prices paid" range for May to $1.99... had to fill up my car yesterday... but I went exactly 16 days between fillups. My plan of eliminating any unnecessary trips with the car is cutting MY demand for fuel!
PF Flyer
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I heard yesterday that OPEC ministers met but decided to start producing more barrels later, not even this month. They reported that that probably means it is too late to help prices to drop anytime this summer, anyway.
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
Seems to me that if King George had not started his little personal vendetta war, nobody would be talking much about gas prices right now.
Then again who is profitting from the high crude prices?? I believe Exxon, Shell, etc. are all big Bush supporters that are headquartered in Texas, not to mention what the war has done for Cheney's favorite horse Haliburton.
Gas prices in America are low compared to the rest of the civilized world. Adjusted for inflation, gas today is no worse as it was in decades past. According to a report done by the Washington Post, gasoline cost $2.01 a gallon in 1974 (in today's dollars). It was $2.76 in 1980 and $2.07 in 1985. It started coming down from there, but has started its rise over the last couple of years.
This was was not about oil. Check out the good things that we have done over there. It will amaze you.
Anyone here think prices won't fall as the election nears?
One thing that pissed me off, though...I have a AAA credit card that gives me 5% off on gasoline purchases, but Costco only accepts Amex, their own credit card, cash, or debit/ATM. In contrast, if I went to the Citgo around the corner and paid $2.099 a gallon, using that card it comes out to about $1.994 a gallon. So it's not worth driving the 16 or so miles to Costco, just to fill up, but we were in the neighborhood, anyway.