lease residual value vs car value at end of lease

ploprocks

Is there a strong relationship between a lease's stated residual value and a car's actual market value at the end of the lease? I.e., when comparing cars can I use the residual value to determine how much I may be able to sell the car for if I had purchased the car instead? Hoping to use it as a rough and imperfect (but decent) estimate when comparing lease/purchase deals.

E.g., would a decent estimate of market price be 80% of residual value (discounting for being an owner selling the car, not a dealer)

If not, is there a good formula or source for real-world future market price estimates for a new 2024 model after 36 months / 36k miles?

Michaell

ploprocks said:

Is there a strong relationship between a lease's stated residual value and a car's actual market value at the end of the lease? I.e., when comparing cars can I use the residual value to determine how much I may be able to sell the car for if I had purchased the car instead? Hoping to use it as a rough and imperfect (but decent) estimate when comparing lease/purchase deals.

E.g., would a decent estimate of market price be 80% of residual value (discounting for being an owner selling the car, not a dealer)

If not, is there a good formula or source for real-world future market price estimates for a new 2024 model after 36 months / 36k miles?

The residual value for a lease rarely correlates to the market value. The bank sets the residual to achieve a certain lease payment.

And, nobody can predict the state of the economy in 36 months. If I'd told you, in 2019, that used car prices were going to be as high as they were in 2022, would you have believed me?

If you plan to get rid of the car at the end of the lease, then lease. If you plan to keep the car longer than the lease term, probably better to buy.

My doctor was looking at an MB E-Class for his wife. We found that the purchase payments for a 60 month loan were actually less than the lease payments for a 36 month lease.