Just as the government is trying to prevent people from investing in anything other than T-Bills by raising taxes on taxable interest and dividends to confiscatory levels, it's also trying to prevent you from parking your wealth in assets, like gold, that compete with the paper dollars issued by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. A press release from Rep. Anthony Weiner, Democrat of New York, not yet (as of this instant) posted on Mr. Weiner's Web site, announces that a September 23 hearing of the Subcommittee on Commerce, Trade, and Consumer Protection (a subcommittee of Rep. Henry Waxman's Commerce Committee) will focus on "legislation that would regulate gold-selling companies, an industry who's [sic] relentless advertising is now staple of cable television."
From the press release: "Under Rep. Weiner's bill, companies like Goldline would be required to disclose the reasonable resale value of items being sold." That's great. Are Mr. Weiner and Chairman Bernanke also going to agree to print on every dollar the reasonable expectation that its value will be eroded by inflation?
Gold investors (or speculators) are already punished by the federal government by having their investment, even in a gold exchange-traded-fund, taxed at the higher rates that apply to collectibles rather than long term capital gains.
Not to mention the fact that Mr. Weiner's regulatory push seems as much aimed at conservative journalists as at the gold-dealers. The press release says, "Goldline employs several conservative pundits to act as shills for its' [sic] precious metal business, including Glenn Beck, Mike Huckabee, Laura Ingraham, and Fred Thompson. By drumming up public fears during financially uncertain times, conservative pundits are able to drive a false narrative. Glenn Beck for example has dedicated entire segments of his program to explaining why the U.S. money supply is destined for hyperinflation with Barack Obama as president."
You sure have done well sticking with your convictions......I am still reeling with the business that closed right after I purchased my machine and all the people looosing their jobs...A bad omen ....I too haven`t strayed from my junk bonds, so all is well, but i have lost my confidence in Wall Street and Washington.....Tony
Thanks OW... Interesting reading, of course, but I don't see that information pointing to any kind of meltdown or anything "ominous". I think some of the huge brokerages were in an irrational hyperdrive for too long anyway, and now that they are slowing down doesn't mean as much as some might suggest, AFAIC.
The successful international (or domestic with international growth and expansion) corporations are the ones I am more interested in. And I agree with Tony, when it comes to conservative investing. While I certainly own a fair amount of equities, I also keep a hefty percentage of my portfolio in fixed securities. I like the balance, and so does my broker, who has been making some great investments for me lately.
Personally, I don't think the "pendulum" is actually swinging all that much in any direction. What "beginning" of what "arc" are you referring to?
The"engines" of the market on Wall Street have begun to experience the longer term levels of growth at the reduced rate in perspective of the rest of the economy. For too long they were on their own planet and created the nightmare of investments none of them understood where it was leading those of us on THIS planet.
Why, the pendulum is swinging at beginning of the"new Wall Street" (small n for normal)...and it's just begun.
What is wrong with everybody here lately? We have been having a very nice, consistent market rally and everybody is SO quiet. Maybe we are all concerned that this is nothing lasting since we have been brainwashed by all the "doom and gloom" boys out there. I think that the good news will outweigh the bad in the months ahead and this market will do just fine. Could we make a new high in the next few weeks? I believe the old high was just a touch above 11,000 for the Dow back in April. Why can't we reach 11,500 sometime this fall? Any other believers out there?
As for me, there is just the regular manipulation going on, and for the long haul guys, with those special stocks you mention--things are fine--otherwise for me there is no trust, as things can vanish in ten minutes, as was demonstrated a while ago on the thousand point drop....I hope things continue to rise, and then I can re-position the C and WFC..If not just dead money sitting there....Tony
My IRA is near the 2007 peak. However I think the good news in the market does not translate into good news with the economy and those looking for a job. The uncertainty of what this Congress and President will do next has got those that create jobs on a tightrope. That and the unknowns in the HC plan will keep unemployment high until we see some real changes for the better. I am not holding my breath.
Well I did notice an additional employee in the office, so that represents about a six percent increase.....It is a very toughly run company, so that person must have really been needed.....a bright thing for the economy.....but I certainly agree with your thoughts about people waiting to see what shakes out....Tony
I've been "in" the market for quite a while now. And you know if I didn't believe in the market, I'd be "out" without hesitation. My very diversified portfolio also includes AAPL, AMZN, and QLIK, so I'm very happy with the recent gains.
That said, I think there's a chance that the market might go sideways for a little while during October. We'll see. Really depends on Obamanomics right before the elections.
Dollar is way off today and PMs continue to shoot up. Is this really a gain in market confidence, or are stocks just inflating to match PMs and depreciated greenback power?
Interesting fin... even though there has been less volatility recently, there is clearly no basis for the market to go to the moon yet, IMO. I am glad the elections are coming up, because we are less likely to see something horrible from the politicians, although I wouldn't rule it out entirely.
There is a lot of balancing necessary between commodities, currencies, fixed securities, equities, and even real estate, IMHO. The values of various investments and money itself is always in some sort of relationship, but I think that's all been changing more than usual, on a global level.
Thanks. I don't see a breakout coming either, but at the same time, I don't envision a collapse. This might be a period of stagnation or malaise. The dollar has lost ~9% vs Euro in a few months and the Yen is way up too...this combined with PM inflation simply makes stocks more expensive, but you really pay more for the same when related to those other vehicles.
Regarding the Dow...I don't see anything more than 11K by year's end, maybe nothing much more than what we have right now.
Regarding the Dow...I don't see anything more than 11K by year's end, maybe nothing much more than what we have right now.
I might be pushing it a bit here, but if politics aren't an obstacle, and if the Bush tax cuts are extended for ALL income brackets, (and if the planets align in just the right way... lol) I think the Dow could conceivably touch 11,250 or maybe even 11,500 briefly by year's end.
A stronger dollar also helped push down crude prices by making the commodity more expensive for investors holding other currencies.
The euro fell to $1.3335 on Thursday from $1.3390 late Wednesday in New York.
Oil has seesawed around the $75 level for most of the past year despite strong crude demand in emerging economies, such as China, as growing oil supplies in the U.S. weigh on prices.
Combined inventories of crude, gasoline and distillates grew last week to 165 million barrels more than two years ago, Cameron Hanover said. Just three weeks before, the supply was 132 million barrels over two years ago.
"We continue to increase the amount of oil we have in storage against the amount held two years ago," Cameron Hanover said. "We still have way too much oil, and demand is not trending higher in any meaningful way."
It isn't going to fall off the cliff but how much pressure is needed to trend down by a wide margin from the current $70 - $75 range?
I am amazed it has been holding up here for so long. I still think that in the near future, it will break to below &70 then head south from there.
As you already know, I'm not that amazed. And, if it should actually head "south" in the "near future" (I'm not sure just how "near" you mean by that), I don't think it's going to head "south" for very long or very far.
You have expressed your optimism for the economic picture to improve. If that is the case, then energy demand will increase. I wouldn't expect an increase in demand to result in a significant decline in the price of oil.
You have expressed your optimism for the economic picture to improve. If that is the case, then energy demand will increase. I wouldn't expect an increase in demand to result in a significant decline in the price of oil.
Tag, in my opinion, it's not all that far fetched to see oil in the $60's and the stock market continue to edge slowly higher over the next several months. The oil supplies are HUGE.
Tag, in my opinion, it's not all that far fetched to see oil in the $60's and the stock market continue to edge slowly higher over the next several months. The oil supplies are HUGE.
Charlie, I don't think it's far-fetched either, although I do not know whether we will actually see that happen or not. I got the impression that you were referring to a rather significant price drop. I guess it's just a matter of perspective.
But, as I've said for a long time now, I expect to see prices a bit higher than they really ought to be.
D'ont want to be the bearer of bad news but it was always my feeling that once the Dow recovered to the 10,000 level it would go into pure range trading with it having a very hard time holding at anything above 11,000 for long. I thought 10-11K with an outside shot at 12 being the top if credit loosened a lot. But it hasn't and everything is still too tight. Look at what's going on with oil. I read today that we have added 35million barrels of oil and it's derivatives in the last 3 weeks alone and that we are now at the highest level of inventory ever. There's no real investment going on if that is the case. Too many folks out of work, fragile economy with a continuing deflation risk (that was confirmed by the Fed this week) and bad policy from Washington all need to be overcome before we can really recover. I maintain that you need to carve out positions whenever you think you're at the low end and dump them near the high end except for your hand selected longs. I remain very worried about the Bush tax cuts ending and you'll have a major sell-off if they do and keep an eye on the developing estate tax issue. Some Dems want to impose a 65% tax rate with only a 1 million exemption. If that ever happens I think we can see a large selloff of small business to strategic buyers and another large wave of job cuts by those buyers. Most folks will never be able to pass down their companies to children if that takes root and if an owner of a profitable business dies the Government and state governments will end up getting 80% of the proceeds of sale between cap gains, local income tax and that absurd 65% estate tax some want to propose. Where's the incentive to hold a business in light of that level of taxation. And if there's ever a selloff of small business than I d'ont even want to think about what will happen to jobs and the economy. I d'ont think our government has a clue of the importance of small business with its job creation as the underpinnings of the economy. I'm just amazed at the stupidity I read coming out of Washington. The speeches say one thing and the policy enactors go in the dead opposite direction.
Watching Boardwalk Empire (which no one should miss seeing) I said to my wife this tax policy reminds me of Prohibition. The only thing it accomplished was a mob controlled industry and sky high prices.Now just make the government the mob and taxes the sky high prices.
As for the market jump recently - maybe it's a lot more tied to the feeling the Dems will not control everything much longer.
BTW - a big thanks for the help Tag. Your thought that we were oversold and a nice bounce was coming pulled me back in. I owe you one, buddy. Another 100 points on the Dow though and I made trade 65% back out.
Len, There's no doubt that many (not all) of the Dems are a dangerous bunch, and fiscally irresponsible to the point of being beyond negligent. That said, there are admittedly a few in the GOP that are seriously out-of-touch with reality. But, IMO, America is a different place already, and we are dealing with a new reality. Regarding the market, I am always cautious in October, and I will be glad when November comes along. I can't say for sure, but I might pull back very soon, and then expect to ask my broker to purchase more stocks again around the end of October or early November. Politics will affect my decision, without a doubt.
Surprisingly, so far I have made the highest prediction for the Dow. :surprise:
In case anyone missed it, in reply to some recent posts by Charlie, OW, and Fin, I predicted the Dow might touch 11,500 at some point before the year ends.
11,200 but it w'ont hold unless we get a good political agenda. IMo cutting the Bush tax rates will drop us back under 10,500, With a 1 in 7 poverty rate and 15-20% real unemployment and a buncj of 50+ folk that may never work again there is only so high we can go until we get a recovery financial policy in DC isntead of a tax grab. The reason I was so confident initially in a bounce to 10K from the doldrums was that was a real valuation of the market vs the unrealistic end of the world scenarios. But once we were at 10K I always worried about economic policy and a tax and spend party in power. I maintain that it is very hard to have a successful business/economic reality under a President who doesn't really want that to happen. If the Reps win the house than you might finally get a real business scenario as the government will be thwarted from doing much.
I'm not anti democrat. I rather have a middle person in power whether he's a dem rep or whatever. Did anyone catch Trump's blistering of Obama?
Jack Welch on these links is so deadly accurate. You need to have run a business or been high up in operating one to undersatnd what is going on. Obama's speeches and policy vs what the unintended consequences of them are (or maybe they aren't unintended) are mind boggling. Remember Obama has run nothing in his life. He wrote a book and is as far away from being an operator as one can get. It actually reminds me of the old commercial about no rain for the rest of your life. I can actually see Obama sugar coating that to grand applause in a speech. A year or two later as every piece of plant life dies the applauders discover the consequences. Basically that's what we've got in Government right now. They have no clue of what their policy means (I'll bet none of them read the Healthcare bill) or what its consequences are. As for his cmments here on jobs I couldn't possibly agree more. We will not have a good unemployment number until the baby boomers retire. I haven't hired anyone in 18 months (and we will have a record profit year as advertising has really bounced back) and the next job I hire for will be a replacement person for someone we have done without for 12 months. And the only reason I will hire is that I need to re-write a major product line's programming code.
Here is a scenario that fits the bill and shows you the DUMB logic of it all Take care and save the $100 dollar Bill for later..
It is a slow day in the small Montana town of Circle , and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody is living on credit.
A rich tourist visiting the area drives through town, stops at the motel, lays a $100 bill on the desk and says he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs before selecting one for the night.
1. As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.
2. The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his debt to the pig farmer.
3. The pig farmer takes the $100 and heads off to pay his bill to his supplier, the Farmer's Co-op.
4. The guy at the Farmer's Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her "services" on credit.
5. The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the hotel owner.
6. The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the rich traveler will not suspect anything.
At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, picks up the $100 bill and leaves town.
No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and looks to the future with a lot more optimism.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how Stimulus works.
I have no idea even where Circle MT is at. A friend emailed it to me, and it sounded like the way our government operates. The old money shuffle. I would imagine most ends up in the pockets of friends of those in power.
Talk on the bill is that it's like everything else done since 2009: it adds controls and ends up putting the government into the business rather than the free market. More Obama.
As part of the Healthcare bill, in 2012 all small business (heck all business actually) will now have to 1099 any expense over $600. Again this is part of the healthcare bill. This is absurd. In the past you just needed to worry about contractors. I like to gas up at the same station most of the time. Starting in 2012 though I will have to 1099 the gas station. Luckily I have a more sophisticated accounting system that allows a modification for this but I now have to worry about expense reports in which someone turns in receipts that has accumulated expenses from any other small business of over $600. I feel for the small businesses that lack such an accounting system but the nature of keeping track of petty cash and expense reports or other non-direct payments for $600+, regardless of whether you have a sphisticated accounting system or not, is a bear for any business. Hopefully credit card companies will be able to put such tracking in place and report it monthly or quarterly. And what the hell does this have to do with healthcare?? Still another example of a Government which is clueless to how things are run operationally. What's the next move - asking consumers to 1099 their purchases over $600?
In the words of Boardwalk Empire's Nucky Thompson to Congress:
I am amazed it has been holding up here for so long. I still think that in the near future, it will break to below &70 then head south from there.
Charlie, I meant to respond to this before but a buddy of mine that is well connected told me the biggest buyers by far of crude on the futures markets are the oil companies themselves as they try as hard as they can to keep prices high until some demand kicks in. Hedge funds d'ont buy into oil right now but are lured back in because of the false prices the oil companies are causing. If we didn't have a futures market oil would have totally collapsed ala natural gas and would probably be trading at a third of its $147.50 peak again ala the natural gas to its peak around $13-14. I realize we have a natural gas futures market but it has no allure at all and never had a currency hedge in it.
You should'a kept it quiet. This is price control at it's best and I'll wager Big Oil has been doing it for years but now is more sophisticated as more capable programs allow no fingerprints!
OW - They always have but right now they are doing it at an exorbitant level. They actually had no choice once oil reached the 30's to low 40's and showed no signs of a bounceback for months. That's why I have to laugh at some of the CNBC guys thinking oil futures are a real market. That trading market is set up for prices never to reach too low and to lure investor support for higher prices.
I would think that the oil companies will buy and store oil when it gets below what it costs to produce. That way it is not taxed until they sell it. What I know about that end of it is slim to none. I doubt they will allow it to drop to the levels it hit in the 1990s. I wonder what our reserve capacity is?
We have record high oil inventory right now and the middle east has a lot of spare pumping capacity right now as well. We are in a bigger glut than the one we had when oil was $10 a barrel.
Charlie, I meant to respond to this before but a buddy of mine that is well connected told me the biggest buyers by far of crude on the futures markets are the oil companies themselves as they try as hard as they can to keep prices high until some demand kicks in. Hedge funds d'ont buy into oil right now but are lured back in because of the false prices the oil companies are causing. If we didn't have a futures market oil would have totally collapsed ala natural gas
This really does make a lot of sense. There is no other rational reason as to why oil is trading in the mid $70s. It is nuts with all the glut. I think your buddy hit the nail on the head. Incredible manipulation !
As an investor would you buy an instrument that has low demand, just built up 35mln barrels of supply in less than 3 weeks alone in itself and derivative products, has record high inventory and has excess manufacturing capacity with a fragile economy that is the most important user by more than double? On top of that the manufacturing utilization capacity is far lower than anytime in the last 5 years. Asked in a different way would you buy a stock with declining revenue and profits that is years away from even hoping to recover to 24 month ago levels? What kills me is the oil companies can use high leverage ratios to perform this task.
C'mon now... are any of you really all that surprised at the idea that the big oil companies could be responsible for the high price of oil?
The oil companies have manipulated the supply as well as the price of oil for decades.
Maybe it's better that way, or Obama will put some sort of government control in place and then it will all backfire, and gas will be $8/gallon, and he can claim it's all for our own good... supporting electric cars and energy independence, and all that.
They were never really able to manage supply and can't now. OPEC getting better co-operation is the key there. High prices, and we are at or over the Saudi desired price keeps OPEC going. That's why we've had so many gluts and now have the biggest glut of all. The development of the futures market gave them and OPEC price manipulation and if you really notice prices have only been high since that market developed. But they are now massively into it to support price.
I disagree. With some historical bumps along the road, they have managed to keep the supply under check for a very long time. The potential for pumping plentiful supplies of oil at lower prices has been there for decades, and instead they have been fairly successful (with some disagreements along the way between the producing members) at maintaining that "fine line" of charging the maximum amount that doesn't rock the boat too much.
Historically, nearly every time the prices got high enough for the consuming public to consider alternatives and economical transportation, the price would edge down just enough for the public to adjust to it and to be kept "on the hook". The same thing has happened recently, and now (as has happend countless times) sales of SUVs, trucks, and gas-guzzlers are on the rise.
It's a pattern... and it's been going on for a very long time... even before the futures market. The futures market has only made it even easier. The oil companies have cleverly kept the world hooked on oil for so long, and will make every effort to continue to do so, and at the same time keeping their profits at the maximum possible levels.
Surely you remember the numerous times when the public was "outraged" at the prices of oil, and the reported oil company profits, and then there would be some meaningless token investigation, only to accomplish nothing, and then the prices would mysteriously go down for a little while, and then when the contraversy settled down, they would go back up to that "fine line"... but frequently just cheap enough to have folks think that oil is cheap enough to buy more of those types of vehicles that actually use more of the stuff. It's an amazing and nearly perfect addiction pattern... between the addict and the supplier.
And, you were questioning the merits of investing in oil? Interesting. When a company sells a product that the whole world is addicted to, and has a fair amount of control over the supply, as well as the ability to manipulate the price of its product, I'd have to say that it's pretty likely that it's an investment worthy of consideration.... IMHO.
Comments
Just as the government is trying to prevent people from investing in anything other than T-Bills by raising taxes on taxable interest and dividends to confiscatory levels, it's also trying to prevent you from parking your wealth in assets, like gold, that compete with the paper dollars issued by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. A press release from Rep. Anthony Weiner, Democrat of New York, not yet (as of this instant) posted on Mr. Weiner's Web site, announces that a September 23 hearing of the Subcommittee on Commerce, Trade, and Consumer Protection (a subcommittee of Rep. Henry Waxman's Commerce Committee) will focus on "legislation that would regulate gold-selling companies, an industry who's [sic] relentless advertising is now staple of cable television."
From the press release: "Under Rep. Weiner's bill, companies like Goldline would be required to disclose the reasonable resale value of items being sold." That's great. Are Mr. Weiner and Chairman Bernanke also going to agree to print on every dollar the reasonable expectation that its value will be eroded by inflation?
Gold investors (or speculators) are already punished by the federal government by having their investment, even in a gold exchange-traded-fund, taxed at the higher rates that apply to collectibles rather than long term capital gains.
Not to mention the fact that Mr. Weiner's regulatory push seems as much aimed at conservative journalists as at the gold-dealers. The press release says, "Goldline employs several conservative pundits to act as shills for its' [sic] precious metal business, including Glenn Beck, Mike Huckabee, Laura Ingraham, and Fred Thompson. By drumming up public fears during financially uncertain times, conservative pundits are able to drive a false narrative. Glenn Beck for example has dedicated entire segments of his program to explaining why the U.S. money supply is destined for hyperinflation with Barack Obama as president."
Wall Street’s Engines of Profit Are Slowing Down
Looks like the pendulum is till at the beginning of it's arc...now it's energy's turn...
Regards,
OW
Interesting reading, of course, but I don't see that information pointing to any kind of meltdown or anything "ominous". I think some of the huge brokerages were in an irrational hyperdrive for too long anyway, and now that they are slowing down doesn't mean as much as some might suggest, AFAIC.
The successful international (or domestic with international growth and expansion) corporations are the ones I am more interested in. And I agree with Tony, when it comes to conservative investing. While I certainly own a fair amount of equities, I also keep a hefty percentage of my portfolio in fixed securities. I like the balance, and so does my broker, who has been making some great investments for me lately.
Personally, I don't think the "pendulum" is actually swinging all that much in any direction. What "beginning" of what "arc" are you referring to?
TM
Why, the pendulum is swinging at beginning of the"new Wall Street" (small n for normal)...and it's just begun.
At the end of the day, the slow and steady...
Regards,
OW
At the end of the day, the slow and steady...
I understand now why you posted that article. I like the slow and steady market action.
BTW, I love my AAPL, AMZN, and QLIK stocks.
I've been "in" the market for quite a while now. And you know if I didn't believe in the market, I'd be "out" without hesitation. My very diversified portfolio also includes AAPL, AMZN, and QLIK, so I'm very happy with the recent gains.
That said, I think there's a chance that the market might go sideways for a little while during October. We'll see. Really depends on Obamanomics right before the elections.
TM
There is a lot of balancing necessary between commodities, currencies, fixed securities, equities, and even real estate, IMHO. The values of various investments and money itself is always in some sort of relationship, but I think that's all been changing more than usual, on a global level.
Your post is very perceptive.
TM
What say you?
Regards,
OW
Regarding the Dow...I don't see anything more than 11K by year's end, maybe nothing much more than what we have right now.
I might be pushing it a bit here, but if politics aren't an obstacle, and if the Bush tax cuts are extended for ALL income brackets, (and if the planets align in just the right way... lol) I think the Dow could conceivably touch 11,250 or maybe even 11,500 briefly by year's end.
TM
The euro fell to $1.3335 on Thursday from $1.3390 late Wednesday in New York.
Oil has seesawed around the $75 level for most of the past year despite strong crude demand in emerging economies, such as China, as growing oil supplies in the U.S. weigh on prices.
Combined inventories of crude, gasoline and distillates grew last week to 165 million barrels more than two years ago, Cameron Hanover said. Just three weeks before, the supply was 132 million barrels over two years ago.
"We continue to increase the amount of oil we have in storage against the amount held two years ago," Cameron Hanover said. "We still have way too much oil, and demand is not trending higher in any meaningful way."
It isn't going to fall off the cliff but how much pressure is needed to trend down by a wide margin from the current $70 - $75 range?
Regards,
OW
I am amazed it has been holding up here for so long. I still think that in the near future, it will break to below &70 then head south from there.
As you already know, I'm not that amazed. And, if it should actually head "south" in the "near future" (I'm not sure just how "near" you mean by that), I don't think it's going to head "south" for very long or very far.
You have expressed your optimism for the economic picture to improve. If that is the case, then energy demand will increase. I wouldn't expect an increase in demand to result in a significant decline in the price of oil.
TM
Tag, in my opinion, it's not all that far fetched to see oil in the $60's and the stock market continue to edge slowly higher over the next several months. The oil supplies are HUGE.
Charlie, I don't think it's far-fetched either, although I do not know whether we will actually see that happen or not. I got the impression that you were referring to a rather significant price drop. I guess it's just a matter of perspective.
But, as I've said for a long time now, I expect to see prices a bit higher than they really ought to be.
TM
Watching Boardwalk Empire (which no one should miss seeing) I said to my wife this tax policy reminds me of Prohibition. The only thing it accomplished was a mob controlled industry and sky high prices.Now just make the government the mob and taxes the sky high prices.
As for the market jump recently - maybe it's a lot more tied to the feeling the Dems will not control everything much longer.
BTW - a big thanks for the help Tag. Your thought that we were oversold and a nice bounce was coming pulled me back in. I owe you one, buddy. Another 100 points on the Dow though and I made trade 65% back out.
There's no doubt that many (not all) of the Dems are a dangerous bunch, and fiscally irresponsible to the point of being beyond negligent. That said, there are admittedly a few in the GOP that are seriously out-of-touch with reality.
But, IMO, America is a different place already, and we are dealing with a new reality.
Regarding the market, I am always cautious in October, and I will be glad when November comes along. I can't say for sure, but I might pull back very soon, and then expect to ask my broker to purchase more stocks again around the end of October or early November.
Politics will affect my decision, without a doubt.
Good to hear from you!
TM
In case anyone missed it, in reply to some recent posts by Charlie, OW, and Fin, I predicted the Dow might touch 11,500 at some point before the year ends.
Anyone care to top it?
TM
I'm not anti democrat. I rather have a middle person in power whether he's a dem rep or whatever. Did anyone catch Trump's blistering of Obama?
I wish I'd seen Trump on that.
It's obvious that your political views and mine are nearly identical.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Jack Welch on these links is so deadly accurate. You need to have run a business or been high up in operating one to undersatnd what is going on. Obama's speeches and policy vs what the unintended consequences of them are (or maybe they aren't unintended) are mind boggling. Remember Obama has run nothing in his life. He wrote a book and is as far away from being an operator as one can get. It actually reminds me of the old commercial about no rain for the rest of your life. I can actually see Obama sugar coating that to grand applause in a speech. A year or two later as every piece of plant life dies the applauders discover the consequences. Basically that's what we've got in Government right now. They have no clue of what their policy means (I'll bet none of them read the Healthcare bill) or what its consequences are. As for his cmments here on jobs I couldn't possibly agree more. We will not have a good unemployment number until the baby boomers retire. I haven't hired anyone in 18 months (and we will have a record profit year as advertising has really bounced back) and the next job I hire for will be a replacement person for someone we have done without for 12 months. And the only reason I will hire is that I need to re-write a major product line's programming code.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1598054940&play=1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1598047442&play=1
Here is a scenario that fits the bill and shows you the DUMB logic of it all Take care and save the $100 dollar Bill for later..
It is a slow day in the small Montana town of Circle , and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody is living on credit.
A rich tourist visiting the area drives through town, stops at the motel, lays a $100 bill on the desk and says he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs before selecting one for the night.
1. As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.
2. The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his debt to the pig farmer.
3. The pig farmer takes the $100 and heads off to pay his bill to his supplier, the Farmer's Co-op.
4. The guy at the Farmer's Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her "services" on credit.
5. The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the hotel owner.
6. The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the rich traveler will not suspect anything.
At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, picks up the $100 bill and leaves town.
No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and looks to the future with a lot more optimism.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how Stimulus works.
my real question is how Circle came into the picture.
I was born in Circle, Montana, and anyone who has been there can tell you that that's not something many people can say.
Odd.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Regards,
OW
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
In the words of Boardwalk Empire's Nucky Thompson to Congress:
"To those beautiful, ignorant bastards"
Charlie, I meant to respond to this before but a buddy of mine that is well connected told me the biggest buyers by far of crude on the futures markets are the oil companies themselves as they try as hard as they can to keep prices high until some demand kicks in. Hedge funds d'ont buy into oil right now but are lured back in because of the false prices the oil companies are causing. If we didn't have a futures market oil would have totally collapsed ala natural gas and would probably be trading at a third of its $147.50 peak again ala the natural gas to its peak around $13-14. I realize we have a natural gas futures market but it has no allure at all and never had a currency hedge in it.
Regards,
OW
This really does make a lot of sense. There is no other rational reason as to why oil is trading in the mid $70s. It is nuts with all the glut. I think your buddy hit the nail on the head. Incredible manipulation !
As an investor would you buy an instrument that has low demand, just built up 35mln barrels of supply in less than 3 weeks alone in itself and derivative products, has record high inventory and has excess manufacturing capacity with a fragile economy that is the most important user by more than double? On top of that the manufacturing utilization capacity is far lower than anytime in the last 5 years. Asked in a different way would you buy a stock with declining revenue and profits that is years away from even hoping to recover to 24 month ago levels? What kills me is the oil companies can use high leverage ratios to perform this task.
The oil companies have manipulated the supply as well as the price of oil for decades.
Maybe it's better that way, or Obama will put some sort of government control in place and then it will all backfire, and gas will be $8/gallon, and he can claim it's all for our own good... supporting electric cars and energy independence, and all that.
TM
Historically, nearly every time the prices got high enough for the consuming public to consider alternatives and economical transportation, the price would edge down just enough for the public to adjust to it and to be kept "on the hook". The same thing has happened recently, and now (as has happend countless times) sales of SUVs, trucks, and gas-guzzlers are on the rise.
It's a pattern... and it's been going on for a very long time... even before the futures market. The futures market has only made it even easier. The oil companies have cleverly kept the world hooked on oil for so long, and will make every effort to continue to do so, and at the same time keeping their profits at the maximum possible levels.
Surely you remember the numerous times when the public was "outraged" at the prices of oil, and the reported oil company profits, and then there would be some meaningless token investigation, only to accomplish nothing, and then the prices would mysteriously go down for a little while, and then when the contraversy settled down, they would go back up to that "fine line"... but frequently just cheap enough to have folks think that oil is cheap enough to buy more of those types of vehicles that actually use more of the stuff. It's an amazing and nearly perfect addiction pattern... between the addict and the supplier.
And, you were questioning the merits of investing in oil? Interesting. When a company sells a product that the whole world is addicted to, and has a fair amount of control over the supply, as well as the ability to manipulate the price of its product, I'd have to say that it's pretty likely that it's an investment worthy of consideration.... IMHO.
TM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wrrzsrb-wg&feature=related
thoughts?