I believe he was suggesting something like hedge fund guys were (and would be again) leveraging the stock and selling it short. Does that make any sense?... because as I posted, I don't understand it... just seems crazy to me. although it does explain some of those ridiculous drops in the share price that we all saw recently (when the price went down to around $320/share).
Seems to me those guys would have taken a bath earlier this week when Apple's earnings were soooo good... they couldn't push down the share price enough to stop their bleeding. But, perhaps it forced them to try even harder? Maybe that's why the share price isn't at $400 already?
Personally, I think anyone betting against Apple is crazy, but to be totally honest, I can see some cracks... and that worries me a little.
Regardless, I'm sticking with AAPL this time... no matter how the market is manipulated.
We'll the numbers are way off too. Apple had $65bln at the last reporting quarter ($76bln now) not $16bln.
Note also in the Yahoo finance link below how Apple other liabilities are growing. Well guess what - most of that is deferred revenue. A few years ago Apple had to start deferring revenue on certain services. It actually set their P&L back. C'ant remember what services but I read about it. So now I have my eye on that line also. I haven't seen the latest Balance Sheet but that number most certainly increased further. In fact the real growth at Apple needs to also take in to consideration a large component of that other liabilities line as both revenue and that line give you the true billings line. I always track growth thru billings, with revenue as a secondary component provided I can get at billings, which in public financials you c'ant. So you need to find where deferred revenue is and in the case of Apple it's in that line but only on certain services. Revenue can be deceiving, especially in a subscription model business. The loss of a large contract can still have spillover revenue in a current year because of accountings rule on revenue recognition. But the cash flow and future revenue of that contract is gone. So you want to keep track of the Balance Sheet and Deferred revenue as well. Unfortunately it often gets buried in other liabilities but of course it's not a cash liability, it's a product fulfillment liability and becomes revenue. In some cases the cash on deferred revenue is already collected, in others it's not.
BTW other liabilities can also include pension liability, deferred rent etc. So it's not all deferred revenue but chances are the growth is mainly deferred revenue.
If that's the case then they are colluding because no one in his right mind would short a company that is rapidly growing and undervalued. Overvalued is a different story.
He had an interesting comment the other day. He was talking about his old days when he was working the deals, and he mentioned how he knows from experience that all those guys working for the big broker houses are under pressure to make money every day, regardless of the market conditions, and that the constant pressure has a significant impact upon their trading decisions.
We'll the numbers are way off too. Apple had $65bln at the last reporting quarter ($76bln now) not $16bln
I thought that Microsoft was also sitting on a huge pile of cash. They were not on that list. Looking at the June 26th statement from Apple, looks like their total assets are about $106 billion. Cannot tell how much is Cash.
I think this is where the actions are for the next little while, the big banks. AAPL's only sure way to increase share price is to split stocks. Until then, we won't have enough long buyers to push it to where it should be.
Also, I must mention to you that I own 1,000 shares of C, and I suggest to you that if it should pull back, you might consider it. It's up over 3.5% today.
Additionally, I own 750 shares of CSCO, and if it dips you might consider it as well. It is also up over 3.5% today.
I must give credit to OW for his IBM input around here. I own 400 shares and they are up 2.5% since I bought them. If IBM dips, you should consider it. It's like an AAPL for the DOW.
This is a great company, and Wall Street didn't like it's earnings report, and has punished the stock. IMO, the investors over-reacted. So, I bought a ton of this stock at the open. As a result, the shares I already owned took a terrible hit at the open, but my average share price based upon my large opening purchase was dramatically reduced. Following my purchase, the stock plunged even further, and I was down thousands of dollars. I held steady and waited, believing that the investors would eventually see that CAT was a major "buy" at the morning's "low".
Sure enough, when the share price hit bottom, the investors started to buy CAT, and finally the share price of CAT was higher than my average share price. Because I bought more CAT than I actually wanted to own long-term at the open, in order to eliminate the loss from the shares I previously owned, I sold the "extra" shares at a GAIN.
The result of this morning's move is that I turned a terrible loss into a gain, and I now own the same number of shares I originally had for my long-term position, but at a much lower cost. So, even though CAT shares are down huge this morning, I am actually showing a gain on the shares I am holding long-term.
I definitely had a surge of adrenaline for a couple of hours this morning, but it was a great move, and I just had to share this experience with you guys. :surprise:
BTW, even though CAT's share price is off its lows at this moment, it is still down quite a bit, and I suggest that everyone here consider that CAT is potentially a very good buy, possibly a bargain, at this beat-up share price.
DE is a stock I originally purchased when I first constructed my long-term portfolio. I own only 140 shares, however, but I own them at what I think is a good price and I am "up" on the stock. I think you made a very good move... you are very smart... it's a great company, IMO.
I am really liking BIDU today. I own 300 shares. Keep your fingers crossed for next week.
It's 103 degrees here in central NJ, 106 at Newark, 102 at Central Park and my overnight low here in the surburbs SW of NYC was only 82. Unheard of for this area as we have pretty decent radiational cooling. My pool water is now at 93 degress, warmest ever. Heat indices across the area are 115-120. Mine is 118 right now. This heat is amazing and the extremes this year from a near 3' blizzard loaded with thunder and lightning to this heat is amazing for the coastal plateau.
Based on that and my fears over Aug. 2nd, should I turn my IRA's and 401 to cash until the dust settles?
NO!
The volatility will potentially increase as we approach the date, but if the market faulters severely, I would be a big BUYER at that very moment.
And... there is also the possibility of a significant market advance, and you could miss it. It is one of those times you need to fasten your seatbelt and ride it through... IMHO.
Based on that and my fears over Aug. 2nd, should I turn my IRA's and 401 to cash until the dust settles?
I think we are all wrestling with that question right now. I wish I had the answer, but I don't. If the markets crash, it will happen quickly. Common sense tells me that a satisfactory resolution will be achieved...but our politicians do not use common sense.
I wish I had my BIDU back...at $119 !! I guess I can't complain though.
My approach to BIDU on Monday = If the stock goes up, just enjoy the ride... but if it goes down, buy more (depending upon the details of the report, of course).
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Apple Inc. is in talks to potentially bid for video-streaming service Hulu, according to a person close to the situation.
The person spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to talk about the matter.
An acquisition of Hulu could bolster Apple's iTunes store, which provides videos users can rent or buy, and help it compete with Netflix Inc. Hulu offers a subscription streaming service. It also brings in revenue from ads that accompany content it streams to users free-of-charge.
Hulu, whose owners include The Walt Disney Co., News Corp. and Comcast Corp., started presenting its financial information to interested bidders late last month, after an unsolicited offer prompted its board to look for other offers.
Apple's interest in Hulu was reported earlier by Bloomberg News.
Interesting play. Could see yet another service that bolsters their product portfolio even further.
Nicholas Colas, ConvergEx Group chief market strategist, points out that the Dow Industrials have outperformed the S&P 500 this year with gains approaching 10% vs. just under 7%.
That outperformance has been driven by just a handful of Dow stocks: IBM IBM, Chevron CVX, and, until Friday, Caterpillar CAT.
Their importance to the Dow is thanks to the index’s price-weighted mechanism, which gives greater emphasis to higher priced stocks.
“Consider that IBM, up some 26.0% for the year, currently has an 11.1% weighting in the DJIA, CAT (up 19.2%) has a 6.6% weight, and CVX (up 19.9%) represents 6.5% of the index. The largest weightings in the S&P 500 are Exxon Mobil at 3.4% and Apple at 3.0%,” Colas wrote in a note Friday.
Even with Caterpillar’s disappointing results Friday, it remains a key driver for the Dow year to date, having driven nearly 8% of the index’s 1,100 point gain this year.
Other top 5 Dow drivers are McDonald’s MCD and Exxon Mobil XOM.
The laggards weighing on the index for the year are Hewlett-Packard HPQ, Cisco CSCO, Bank of America BAC and Microsoft MSFT.
This heat is amazing and the extremes this year from a near 3' blizzard loaded with thunder and lightning to this heat is amazing for the coastal plateau.
Yes, amazing to say the least. We had that sort of heat (about 100 each day) and heat indices here for 3 consecutive days. Yesterday was a "cool" 90, but today we are up in the mid 90s with a dew point of 76. The heat of this summer in the Midwest was a big surprise to everyone. Nobody expected this as analogue studies suggested a rather normal summer. All I can say is: CLIMATE CHANGE.
OW... My wife is from "the South". I have spent many summer days there and know exactly what you are experiencing. I am one of those guys that sweats a lot when it gets really hot out... I would be completely soaked if I were in that heat right now.
We are having the heat also here in KC. Around 100-102 all week with heat indexes 105-110....but here is the thing. I have played golf 4 times this week, always teeing off around 8 AM and finishing around 11 AM. Not bad at all, in fact, it is beautiful early in the day and really quite comfortable. Afternoons, not so much !!
I was just wondering..."Are we all doing enough here on this forum to help one another with our investment decisions"? "Are we making more money as a result of this forum?"
I personally think this forum has been VERY helpful, but I don't want to take it for granted that it is helpful to everyone. So, let me simply mention that if there is anything I can personally do to be helpful to anyone here, please just let me know. I really have no way to know if my posts are helpful to any of you and those readers that don't post.
So, if there are any questions and/or comments, please feel free to chime in.
Beyond that, I want to thank all of you that post here... I think it is fair to say that it has been a profitable experience in addition to an opportunity to stay in touch with all of you throughout the years.
Charlie's strong convinction about AAPL has been profitable numerous times. OW's recommendation of IBM has already shown me a nice paper gain in my account. GS's QLIK recommendation was awesome back when he first announced it. Houdini recently put BIDU back into the spotlight, and even though I had once owned it, I had not included it in my latest portfolio and his post caused me to buy BIDU shares, and I am hopeful it will be terrific in the long run... so far it has proved to be a very good idea.
There have been posts regarding CSCO, and I own shares, and CSCO is looking VERY good so far. Also, many of us have posted about Citi, and financials at this point in time, and I am glad about that. I have recently purchased C again after a long time of avoiding it, and so far it is showing a very nice gain on paper.
I appreciate the recent comments that Len and OW posted advising me focus longer-term. That was some of the best advise I've gotten in a long time, because I had definitely strayed from my "dual" (both long-term and short-term) approach that used to work very well for me.
Tony's comments have always always appreciated, and his recent comments on ETFs were helpful to me, as I was able to put my recent horrible ETF experience into proper and realistic perspective, as I subsequently decided to include some small positions on DOW, NASDAQ and S&P index ETFs into my account, and they are actually doing very well. In addition, the GLD position that I had already owned is actually an ETF.
I know I have not mentioned everyone that posts here... not even close... but I just want to point out that it's awesome how this forum can make us money... IF we continue to share valuable information, and share our opinions about the economy and the political scene as it affects the economy.
Anyway... FWIW... Thanks!!... and let me know if there is more I can do.
I bought 2000 silver shares (SLV) a couple of days ago just as a hedge.
For some reason, silver scares me. I have flashbacks of the days of the Hunts brothers massive market manipulation of silver. Remember that? It was crazy.
But, silver can be very profitable... if you can stomach the risk. And, I think you have to watch your timing with silver.
I saw his insane news conference tonight and I thought I was seeing something out of a movie script... it was too ridiculous too be real. But it was real.
It was a tough call for me between GLD and SLV, but from 3/09 until the present GLD has gone up by about 70% while SLV has gone up 300% and SLV seems to track the actual price of silver better than GLD tracks actual gold.
If I wanted to own actual bullion, it would be gold, but who knows, this is mostly guesswork and gut feeling on my part !!
This forum is valuable to me not only because of the shared info., but because it lets me know that there are others out there who think and act very much like I do (positive feedback) in making various financial decisions.
Obama. It seems like as soon as they get close to a compromise, Obama takes this as a sign of weakness from the Republicans and raises his demands. Then the media blames the Republicans for being stubborn.
What is so strange about Obama is that virtually NO ONE has come forward from his past and shared stories about him. No past girl friends, no past friends of any type. No one remembers him from his college days, etc. How did he and Michelle meet? It is like he just popped onto the scene around 2000 with no past. Anyone else think this is strange?
Questions about Obama's past tend to be politically motivated, and I avoid that whole thing . It typically enters into questioning his citizenship and that whole weird thing... it's a mechanism to cast doubt on his eligibility to be president. His eligibility isn't nearly as much a concern as is his lack of ability.
I don't worry about his past anyway. It's what he is doing in the present that has me so concerned. It's absolutely idiotic. He has made himself appear as an intelligent individual, but without the ability to be president and with a very warped agenda. His is obsesssed with tax increases and he is stubborn to the point of being dangerous. He is a fighter and not a negotiator.
He is willing to sacrifice 98% of the United States just so he can feel some sort of satisfaction in attacking the most successful 2%... which he does constantly. Imagine that. Imagine being willing to sacrifice the country like that. His obsessive agenda has done NOTHING to create jobs and growth. He is willing to let the entire US economy go down the drain in order to get his way... which is misguided... and would just send us down the drain anyway, only more slowly. What a horrible situation.
I soooooooo dislike this president for what he does in the present, and how he will damage the future. So much potential wasted. He needs to stop playing politics and quit focusing on tax increases and being re-elected... both of which would inflict even more harm to our economy.
Obama is one of the worst Presidents in the history of the United States... and he may very well cause catastrophic damage to our country before he is finally out of office.
His news conference last night was a glimpse into the mental mess that is in our White House.
His news conference may have caused an unavoidable sharp market decline next week. If nothing is achieved this weekend, next week will be ugly. Yesterday I posted to NOT sell out, but that was before Obama's insane news conference. I am not so sure now. There is now much more downside potential than upside. That's not an attraction to the market by any means.
I will probably cut back my market exposure rather than get completely out, although I am not certain until this weekend is over and we see where the debt ceiling talks are. I will also probably buy more gold.
I will probably cut back my market exposure rather than get completely out, although I am not certain until this weekend is over and we see where the debt ceiling talks are.
I am starting to think about it also. The fact that he and the Reps broke rank so sharply after getting so close is telling me this is an ego thing that he does not want to lose, mainly because of the far left like Pelosi. And the fact that Obama wants no temporary debt ceiling solution for 6-12 months and only one that carries to after the election is also telling me that all he cares about is his re-election. He presents well to the public (speaking, not governing is his gift afterall) and has laid blame on Boehmer and the Reps and to me that is almost childish. Everyone is to blame here and he stands up on national TV and says it's not me. Give me a break! If I were him I'd pass the law that everyone wants with the spending cuts and revisit taxes as a separate issue. Our whole tax system needs a re-write and it and the debt ceiling are separate issues. We cannot have an economic collapse because a terrible president desires so badly to get re-elected. Plus we have Obama saying that it is only a tax increase on the top 1 or 2 percent and it's not a lot of money. So logic says if it's not a lot of money than why is it a deal breaker. Truth is it is a lot of money and the people it will hurt the most are small business owners, the very people who are waiting for clearance on all theses issues to start new ideas, business expansion and hiring.
We are in total agreement here. There is no doubt that Obama is concerned about re-election. He wants to paint the Republicans as the problem here, but it's obvious that he is adamant about the same old thing... TAX & SPEND.
I think it's still possible that we will get some sort of deal at the last hour, but it is amazing to me just how badly Obama wants to raise taxes. It's obsessive.
And, it is shocking to think that Obama would consider raising those taxes when practically every CEO and CFO and business owner is saying that this is a very bad time to be focused on tax increases.
TAX & SPEND
It is unbelievable. :sick:
Thanks for posting the letter.
EDIT: I don't know about you and everyone else here, but I am soooo sick and tired of dealing with the uncertainty that comes as a result of this administration. I am scared to death. It is so difficult to invest and it is nearly impossible to consider expanding my business.
What Obama doesn't get is that small business simply offsets any tax increase it will get. These taxes are paid thru our 1040 so they are a raise in taxes on us but the income it is based on is our business. In our case we hired additional people this year because we got past last years silly tax increases Obama wanted. Now we are freezing up again for the rest of the year and next because of the new tax increases he wants. What he doesn't get is that if he extracts higher taxes we'll have to pay it but guess where we'll get the money from - not hiring new employees or looking to cut expenses (predominantly staff) to offset it. I have loans to pay from buying out past partners and they increase in principal payments next year. We have no issue making payments, covenants etc but he tightens my fixed coverage charge ratio with any tax increase, which is a natural restraint on small businesses with loans whether they want to hire or not. You miss ratios and you are in default and the outcome is a higher interest rate. So you get slammed all over the place. Boehmer ran a small business so he knows all this very well. Obama has run nothing in his life. He wrote a book. Again I understand Obama wanting to extract money from the ultra rich but there's a difference between what a small business reports and what cash it actually generates for its owners vs what a hedge fund guy gets or what a CEO generates thru his W2. They cannot all be grouped in the same category and the majority of the taxes Obama seeks will come out of small business. And all small business will do is redistribute it's cash flow and in many cases it has no choice to do otherwise anyway because of bank covenant restrictions. What goes to taxes will be taken away from employees or new jobs because in a service economy jobs are far and away the grestest expense. How does Obama not get this? It's economics 101.
Because he defaults to taxes for the masses on social programs. Yours and Tags and all of the small businesses are 2nd place, afahc. Of course, you are correct in your assesment but unfortunately, the frantic negotiations with an unfamiliar leader is going to take it's toll one way or another....higher taxes and more job dislocation or spending cuts in the wrong places. :sick:
The tax code is over 2,200 pages and broken long ago. Those who even think this will be changed, particularly in this administration, are sadly mistaken.
Obama will not make it a second term. Jobs will not return that fast.
Obama will not make it a second term. Jobs will not return that fast.
I certainly hope you are right...but I fear the 49% who currently pay no taxes will be a huge voting block for Obama and the Dems.
Add in all the people who work for or depend on the gov. for their livelihood, all the union members, and all sorts of voting fraud and who knows what might happen.
In any event, it is going to be a huge chore kicking him out of the White House.
What goes to taxes will be taken away from employees or new jobs because in a service economy jobs are far and away the grestest expense. How does Obama not get this? It's economics 101.
Len,
Well said, and a good post. It is almost bizarre how Obama does not understand it. It begs the question, "why not?". An obvious answer is that he is uneducated, but that's not the case. So, it leaves us to seriously consider that he has an AGENDA. And, given his behavior in office thus far, that seems to be highly likely.
Let's not forget that his first mission was to focus on his personal pet project... Obama-care. He did this because his mother died when she was only 53, and she had a lot of medical bills. This was a very emotional thing that Obama went through... When he won the presidency, he should have focused first on strengthening the economy and creating more jobs, and then later addressing the issue of health care. But, he proved that his own AGENDA would come first.
Now, we are seeing the same thing. Let's realize that at EVERY possible opportunity, including the extension of the Bush-era tax cats, Obama has pounded the table for tax increases. So, it's obvious that tax increases are part of his AGENDA. It's something he wants to see happen, no matter what. And, just like he put his Obama-care AGENDA ahead of jobs creation and the well-being of our economy, he puts his tax-increase AGENDA ahead of jobs creation the well-being of our economy. THAT's why there is a stalemate in Washington.
In addition, Obama is obviously fearful that a debt-ceiling agreement might be written to expire right before his re-election bid, and that's why he insists on extending it to after the elections. He knows the political consequences of his lack of progress on the economy, and to have the issue come up again right before elections would most likely destroy any chances he might otherwise have to get re-elected. The Republicans know this, and don't want to give him that bandage. And why should they? But, Obama is willing to sacrifice all of us for his AGENDA, which includes re-election, of course.
So, Len... it's all about Obama's agenda... Obama-care, tax increases, and getting re-elected. If he is re-elected, you haven't seen anything yet... that's when second-term presidents generally show what they are really about... that's when we would see Obama's final agenda for America.
It's up to the GOP to appeal to more than that hardworking and self-made honest ethical 2% who control 90%+ of all wealth and a handful of actual working people or religious nuts. It'll be their election to lose. Barry is no charismatic figure or great speaker, he shouldn't be hard to beat. The opposition needs to finally put up or shut up.
From what I have seen in the deeply red and fairly poor south, lots of those dependents don't vote for leftists. Hard to blame it all on the welfare cases.
Our hopes for a trickle down wonderland need a reality check.
>. He did this because his mother died when she was only 53, and she had a lot of medical bills.
I believe that turned out to be yet another perversion of ObamaTruth for campaign purposes. She had medical insurance.
"It is too much to say that Obama told an intentionally tall tale to mislead the public. But it also is incorrect to say that he told a true story. According to Janny Scott, a New York Times writer and author of the book "A Singular Woman: The Untold Story of Barack Obama's Mother," Dunham's cancer treatments were covered by her employer's insurance policy. She was denied disability insurance, which would have helped Dunham pay her deductible or unreimbursed medical costs. These apparently ran into the hundreds per month.
A distinction without a difference? This is a question for Americans to decide. Yes, it's true that Dunham was denied disability and she hired her son, whom she identified as her lawyer, to pursue legal recourse. But it is false that she was denied coverage of her treatment, as Obama clearly said."
""I will never forget my own mother, as she fought cancer in her final months, having to worry about whether her insurance would refuse to pay for her treatment," Obama told a sympathetic nation.
I believe that turned out to be yet another perversion of ObamaTruth for campaign purposes..
Well... if so, then what would motivate him to have such an agenda? He was on a mission. If you suggest that his mother's situation was a political ploy, then what would be the motivating factor that would have driven him to put EVERYTHING America needed on the back burner in order to implement such an agenda?
You know what I find interesting is where Obama is getting his financing for 2012. It is the very crooks we have pinpointed subverting the stock market process. Big business and Wall street seem to love him. It is the small to medium sized business man that gets screwed by his policies.
A just-released study by the Center for Responsive Politics shows that President Obama is relying more on Wall Street to fund his re-election this year than he did in 2008, according to CNBC, which obtained an advance copy of the report.
The report says that one-third of the money Obama's elite fund-raising corps has raised on behalf of his re-election has come from the financial sector.
"Individuals who work in the finance, insurance, and real estate sector are responsible for raising at least $11.3 million for Obama's campaign and the Democratic National Committee," the report says.
And, all of Obama's “bundlers” — top fundraisers who obtain donations from people and groups in their business, professional, and personal networks — have raised a minimum of $34.95 million.
Obama has even added new Wall Streeters who did not work for him in 2008, including former Goldman Sachs CEO Jon Corzine, Evercore Partners executive Charles Myers, Greenstreet Real Estate Partners CEO Steven Green, and Azita Raji, a former investment banker for JPMorgan.
Obama and the DNC combined are on pace to far exceed the amounts Obama raised from Wall Street donors in 2008, both in raw dollar amounts and as a percentage of what he raises overall.
Well... if so, then what would motivate him to have such an agenda?
D'ont forget it was an agenda the population didn't want. People all over the world send their sick here because we have the best doctors and healthcare and he wants to change it so that doctors have a lot less motivation. Markets fix themselves when prices get out of hand. That's another thing Obama doesn't get or refuses to accept.
Comments
I believe he was suggesting something like hedge fund guys were (and would be again) leveraging the stock and selling it short. Does that make any sense?... because as I posted, I don't understand it... just seems crazy to me. although it does explain some of those ridiculous drops in the share price that we all saw recently (when the price went down to around $320/share).
Seems to me those guys would have taken a bath earlier this week when Apple's earnings were soooo good... they couldn't push down the share price enough to stop their bleeding. But, perhaps it forced them to try even harder? Maybe that's why the share price isn't at $400 already?
Personally, I think anyone betting against Apple is crazy, but to be totally honest, I can see some cracks... and that worries me a little.
Regardless, I'm sticking with AAPL this time... no matter how the market is manipulated.
TM
Note also in the Yahoo finance link below how Apple other liabilities are growing. Well guess what - most of that is deferred revenue. A few years ago Apple had to start deferring revenue on certain services. It actually set their P&L back. C'ant remember what services but I read about it. So now I have my eye on that line also. I haven't seen the latest Balance Sheet but that number most certainly increased further. In fact the real growth at Apple needs to also take in to consideration a large component of that other liabilities line as both revenue and that line give you the true billings line. I always track growth thru billings, with revenue as a secondary component provided I can get at billings, which in public financials you c'ant. So you need to find where deferred revenue is and in the case of Apple it's in that line but only on certain services. Revenue can be deceiving, especially in a subscription model business. The loss of a large contract can still have spillover revenue in a current year because of accountings rule on revenue recognition. But the cash flow and future revenue of that contract is gone. So you want to keep track of the Balance Sheet and Deferred revenue as well. Unfortunately it often gets buried in other liabilities but of course it's not a cash liability, it's a product fulfillment liability and becomes revenue. In some cases the cash on deferred revenue is already collected, in others it's not.
BTW other liabilities can also include pension liability, deferred rent etc. So it's not all deferred revenue but chances are the growth is mainly deferred revenue.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AAPL
If that's the case then they are colluding because no one in his right mind would short a company that is rapidly growing and undervalued. Overvalued is a different story.
I tend to believe Cramer on this.
He had an interesting comment the other day. He was talking about his old days when he was working the deals, and he mentioned how he knows from experience that all those guys working for the big broker houses are under pressure to make money every day, regardless of the market conditions, and that the constant pressure has a significant impact upon their trading decisions.
TM
I thought that Microsoft was also sitting on a huge pile of cash. They were not on that list. Looking at the June 26th statement from Apple, looks like their total assets are about $106 billion. Cannot tell how much is Cash.
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8049595-4374- -117238&type=sect&dcn=0001193125-11-192493
I just gotta chuckle - It's up only 20% for the year...I remember when we were all happy with 5-7% a year.
There has to be an investigation into this crap. Hopefully, one of these days soon, these p....s will pay for their actions in a huge way.
I was also able to snatch some AAPL shares earlier this morning at $384.
TM
AAPL's only sure way to increase share price is to split stocks. Until then, we won't have enough long buyers to push it to where it should be.
Also, I must mention to you that I own 1,000 shares of C, and I suggest to you that if it should pull back, you might consider it. It's up over 3.5% today.
Additionally, I own 750 shares of CSCO, and if it dips you might consider it as well. It is also up over 3.5% today.
I must give credit to OW for his IBM input around here. I own 400 shares and they are up 2.5% since I bought them. If IBM dips, you should consider it. It's like an AAPL for the DOW.
TM
You and I continue to be in agreement on this.
I just mentioned to Charlie about Citi. This is the time to invest in C, IMO.
TM
Regards,
OW
TM
I'm on it!
First Report - Free Cash Flow. IBM is a pretty good generator and balances use of cash well.
IBM FCF
Regards,
OW
Sure enough, when the share price hit bottom, the investors started to buy CAT, and finally the share price of CAT was higher than my average share price. Because I bought more CAT than I actually wanted to own long-term at the open, in order to eliminate the loss from the shares I previously owned, I sold the "extra" shares at a GAIN.
The result of this morning's move is that I turned a terrible loss into a gain, and I now own the same number of shares I originally had for my long-term position, but at a much lower cost. So, even though CAT shares are down huge this morning, I am actually showing a gain on the shares I am holding long-term.
I definitely had a surge of adrenaline for a couple of hours this morning, but it was a great move, and I just had to share this experience with you guys. :surprise:
BTW, even though CAT's share price is off its lows at this moment, it is still down quite a bit, and I suggest that everyone here consider that CAT is potentially a very good buy, possibly a bargain, at this beat-up share price.
TM
I am really liking BIDU today. I own 300 shares. Keep your fingers crossed for next week.
AAPL!!
TM
It's 103 degrees here in central NJ, 106 at Newark, 102 at Central Park and my overnight low here in the surburbs SW of NYC was only 82. Unheard of for this area as we have pretty decent radiational cooling. My pool water is now at 93 degress, warmest ever. Heat indices across the area are 115-120. Mine is 118 right now. This heat is amazing and the extremes this year from a near 3' blizzard loaded with thunder and lightning to this heat is amazing for the coastal plateau.
Remember BIDU reports Monday.
when the meltdown occurred in 2008, all the "experts" said "STAY THE COURSE!' with my 401K investments and stock holdings.
that cost me... a LOT...
I am not a good investor. I like to buy high/sell low, it's what I do really well.
Based on that and my fears over Aug. 2nd, should I turn my IRA's and 401 to cash until the dust settles?
NO!
The volatility will potentially increase as we approach the date, but if the market faulters severely, I would be a big BUYER at that very moment.
And... there is also the possibility of a significant market advance, and you could miss it. It is one of those times you need to fasten your seatbelt and ride it through... IMHO.
TM
I think we are all wrestling with that question right now. I wish I had the answer, but I don't. If the markets crash, it will happen quickly. Common sense tells me that a satisfactory resolution will be achieved...but our politicians do not use common sense.
I wish I had my BIDU back...at $119 !! I guess I can't complain though.
Tagman, nice work !!
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
My approach to BIDU on Monday = If the stock goes up, just enjoy the ride... but if it goes down, buy more (depending upon the details of the report, of course).
TM
The person spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to talk about the matter.
An acquisition of Hulu could bolster Apple's iTunes store, which provides videos users can rent or buy, and help it compete with Netflix Inc. Hulu offers a subscription streaming service. It also brings in revenue from ads that accompany content it streams to users free-of-charge.
Hulu, whose owners include The Walt Disney Co., News Corp. and Comcast Corp., started presenting its financial information to interested bidders late last month, after an unsolicited offer prompted its board to look for other offers.
Apple's interest in Hulu was reported earlier by Bloomberg News.
Interesting play. Could see yet another service that bolsters their product portfolio even further.
Regards,
OW
That outperformance has been driven by just a handful of Dow stocks: IBM IBM, Chevron CVX, and, until Friday, Caterpillar CAT.
Their importance to the Dow is thanks to the index’s price-weighted mechanism, which gives greater emphasis to higher priced stocks.
“Consider that IBM, up some 26.0% for the year, currently has an 11.1% weighting in the DJIA, CAT (up 19.2%) has a 6.6% weight, and CVX (up 19.9%) represents 6.5% of the index. The largest weightings in the S&P 500 are Exxon Mobil at 3.4% and Apple at 3.0%,” Colas wrote in a note Friday.
Even with Caterpillar’s disappointing results Friday, it remains a key driver for the Dow year to date, having driven nearly 8% of the index’s 1,100 point gain this year.
Other top 5 Dow drivers are McDonald’s MCD and Exxon Mobil XOM.
The laggards weighing on the index for the year are Hewlett-Packard HPQ, Cisco CSCO, Bank of America BAC and Microsoft MSFT.
Rock Star Status
At least CAT rocked and rolled into the earnings report...
Sorry, the 118 heat index has me bleary-eyed! :shades:
Regards,
OW
Ouch! Be careful of heat stroke, a very real danger. :sick:
Dare I say the current temp here in Malibu, California is a cool mid-seventies?
TM
Yes, amazing to say the least. We had that sort of heat (about 100 each day) and heat indices here for 3 consecutive days. Yesterday was a "cool" 90, but today we are up in the mid 90s with a dew point of 76. The heat of this summer in the Midwest was a big surprise to everyone. Nobody expected this as analogue studies suggested a rather normal summer. All I can say is: CLIMATE CHANGE.
You have to rub it in!? You can't even walk 5 feet into this stuff over in central NJ and you leave a puddle behind you.
Hats off to the "Bu" life!
Regards,
OW
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
At 10:00 AM today it was 91 over here. Ridiculous! :sick:
Regards,
OW
I bought 2000 silver shares (SLV) a couple of days ago just as a hedge.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I personally think this forum has been VERY helpful, but I don't want to take it for granted that it is helpful to everyone. So, let me simply mention that if there is anything I can personally do to be helpful to anyone here, please just let me know. I really have no way to know if my posts are helpful to any of you and those readers that don't post.
So, if there are any questions and/or comments, please feel free to chime in.
Beyond that, I want to thank all of you that post here... I think it is fair to say that it has been a profitable experience in addition to an opportunity to stay in touch with all of you throughout the years.
Charlie's strong convinction about AAPL has been profitable numerous times. OW's recommendation of IBM has already shown me a nice paper gain in my account. GS's QLIK recommendation was awesome back when he first announced it. Houdini recently put BIDU back into the spotlight, and even though I had once owned it, I had not included it in my latest portfolio and his post caused me to buy BIDU shares, and I am hopeful it will be terrific in the long run... so far it has proved to be a very good idea.
There have been posts regarding CSCO, and I own shares, and CSCO is looking VERY good so far. Also, many of us have posted about Citi, and financials at this point in time, and I am glad about that. I have recently purchased C again after a long time of avoiding it, and so far it is showing a very nice gain on paper.
I appreciate the recent comments that Len and OW posted advising me focus longer-term. That was some of the best advise I've gotten in a long time, because I had definitely strayed from my "dual" (both long-term and short-term) approach that used to work very well for me.
Tony's comments have always always appreciated, and his recent comments on ETFs were helpful to me, as I was able to put my recent horrible ETF experience into proper and realistic perspective, as I subsequently decided to include some small positions on DOW, NASDAQ and S&P index ETFs into my account, and they are actually doing very well. In addition, the GLD position that I had already owned is actually an ETF.
I know I have not mentioned everyone that posts here... not even close... but I just want to point out that it's awesome how this forum can make us money... IF we continue to share valuable information, and share our opinions about the economy and the political scene as it affects the economy.
Anyway... FWIW... Thanks!!... and let me know if there is more I can do.
TM
For some reason, silver scares me. I have flashbacks of the days of the Hunts brothers massive market manipulation of silver. Remember that? It was crazy.
But, silver can be very profitable... if you can stomach the risk. And, I think you have to watch your timing with silver.
Good luck.
TM
Real horrible.
Real sad.
Real tragic.
Real dangerous.
Real stupid.
Real mistaken.
Real scary.
Real shame.
TM
If I wanted to own actual bullion, it would be gold, but who knows, this is mostly guesswork and gut feeling on my part !!
This forum is valuable to me not only because of the shared info., but because it lets me know that there are others out there who think and act very much like I do (positive feedback) in making various financial decisions.
Obama. It seems like as soon as they get close to a compromise, Obama takes this as a sign of weakness from the Republicans and raises his demands. Then the media blames the Republicans for being stubborn.
What is so strange about Obama is that virtually NO ONE has come forward from his past and shared stories about him. No past girl friends, no past friends of any type. No one remembers him from his college days, etc. How did he and Michelle meet? It is like he just popped onto the scene around 2000 with no past. Anyone else think this is strange?
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
I don't worry about his past anyway. It's what he is doing in the present that has me so concerned. It's absolutely idiotic. He has made himself appear as an intelligent individual, but without the ability to be president and with a very warped agenda. His is obsesssed with tax increases and he is stubborn to the point of being dangerous. He is a fighter and not a negotiator.
He is willing to sacrifice 98% of the United States just so he can feel some sort of satisfaction in attacking the most successful 2%... which he does constantly. Imagine that. Imagine being willing to sacrifice the country like that. His obsessive agenda has done NOTHING to create jobs and growth. He is willing to let the entire US economy go down the drain in order to get his way... which is misguided... and would just send us down the drain anyway, only more slowly. What a horrible situation.
I soooooooo dislike this president for what he does in the present, and how he will damage the future. So much potential wasted. He needs to stop playing politics and quit focusing on tax increases and being re-elected... both of which would inflict even more harm to our economy.
Obama is one of the worst Presidents in the history of the United States... and he may very well cause catastrophic damage to our country before he is finally out of office.
His news conference last night was a glimpse into the mental mess that is in our White House.
TM
I will probably cut back my market exposure rather than get completely out, although I am not certain until this weekend is over and we see where the debt ceiling talks are. I will also probably buy more gold.
TM
I am starting to think about it also. The fact that he and the Reps broke rank so sharply after getting so close is telling me this is an ego thing that he does not want to lose, mainly because of the far left like Pelosi. And the fact that Obama wants no temporary debt ceiling solution for 6-12 months and only one that carries to after the election is also telling me that all he cares about is his re-election. He presents well to the public (speaking, not governing is his gift afterall) and has laid blame on Boehmer and the Reps and to me that is almost childish. Everyone is to blame here and he stands up on national TV and says it's not me. Give me a break! If I were him I'd pass the law that everyone wants with the spending cuts and revisit taxes as a separate issue. Our whole tax system needs a re-write and it and the debt ceiling are separate issues. We cannot have an economic collapse because a terrible president desires so badly to get re-elected. Plus we have Obama saying that it is only a tax increase on the top 1 or 2 percent and it's not a lot of money. So logic says if it's not a lot of money than why is it a deal breaker. Truth is it is a lot of money and the people it will hurt the most are small business owners, the very people who are waiting for clearance on all theses issues to start new ideas, business expansion and hiring.
Here's Boehmer's letter:
http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/223142-boehners-letter-on-leaving-debt-ne- - gotiations.html
I think it's still possible that we will get some sort of deal at the last hour, but it is amazing to me just how badly Obama wants to raise taxes. It's obsessive.
And, it is shocking to think that Obama would consider raising those taxes when practically every CEO and CFO and business owner is saying that this is a very bad time to be focused on tax increases.
TAX & SPEND
It is unbelievable. :sick:
Thanks for posting the letter.
EDIT: I don't know about you and everyone else here, but I am soooo sick and tired of dealing with the uncertainty that comes as a result of this administration. I am scared to death. It is so difficult to invest and it is nearly impossible to consider expanding my business.
TM
What Obama doesn't get is that small business simply offsets any tax increase it will get. These taxes are paid thru our 1040 so they are a raise in taxes on us but the income it is based on is our business. In our case we hired additional people this year because we got past last years silly tax increases Obama wanted. Now we are freezing up again for the rest of the year and next because of the new tax increases he wants. What he doesn't get is that if he extracts higher taxes we'll have to pay it but guess where we'll get the money from - not hiring new employees or looking to cut expenses (predominantly staff) to offset it. I have loans to pay from buying out past partners and they increase in principal payments next year. We have no issue making payments, covenants etc but he tightens my fixed coverage charge ratio with any tax increase, which is a natural restraint on small businesses with loans whether they want to hire or not. You miss ratios and you are in default and the outcome is a higher interest rate. So you get slammed all over the place. Boehmer ran a small business so he knows all this very well. Obama has run nothing in his life. He wrote a book. Again I understand Obama wanting to extract money from the ultra rich but there's a difference between what a small business reports and what cash it actually generates for its owners vs what a hedge fund guy gets or what a CEO generates thru his W2. They cannot all be grouped in the same category and the majority of the taxes Obama seeks will come out of small business. And all small business will do is redistribute it's cash flow and in many cases it has no choice to do otherwise anyway because of bank covenant restrictions. What goes to taxes will be taken away from employees or new jobs because in a service economy jobs are far and away the grestest expense. How does Obama not get this? It's economics 101.
Because he defaults to taxes for the masses on social programs. Yours and Tags and all of the small businesses are 2nd place, afahc. Of course, you are correct in your assesment but unfortunately, the frantic negotiations with an unfamiliar leader is going to take it's toll one way or another....higher taxes and more job dislocation or spending cuts in the wrong places. :sick:
The tax code is over 2,200 pages and broken long ago. Those who even think this will be changed, particularly in this administration, are sadly mistaken.
Obama will not make it a second term. Jobs will not return that fast.
Regards,
OW
I certainly hope you are right...but I fear the 49% who currently pay no taxes will be a huge voting block for Obama and the Dems.
Add in all the people who work for or depend on the gov. for their livelihood, all the union members, and all sorts of voting fraud and who knows what might happen.
In any event, it is going to be a huge chore kicking him out of the White House.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Len,
Well said, and a good post. It is almost bizarre how Obama does not understand it. It begs the question, "why not?". An obvious answer is that he is uneducated, but that's not the case. So, it leaves us to seriously consider that he has an AGENDA. And, given his behavior in office thus far, that seems to be highly likely.
Let's not forget that his first mission was to focus on his personal pet project... Obama-care. He did this because his mother died when she was only 53, and she had a lot of medical bills. This was a very emotional thing that Obama went through... When he won the presidency, he should have focused first on strengthening the economy and creating more jobs, and then later addressing the issue of health care. But, he proved that his own AGENDA would come first.
Now, we are seeing the same thing. Let's realize that at EVERY possible opportunity, including the extension of the Bush-era tax cats, Obama has pounded the table for tax increases. So, it's obvious that tax increases are part of his AGENDA. It's something he wants to see happen, no matter what. And, just like he put his Obama-care AGENDA ahead of jobs creation and the well-being of our economy, he puts his tax-increase AGENDA ahead of jobs creation the well-being of our economy. THAT's why there is a stalemate in Washington.
In addition, Obama is obviously fearful that a debt-ceiling agreement might be written to expire right before his re-election bid, and that's why he insists on extending it to after the elections. He knows the political consequences of his lack of progress on the economy, and to have the issue come up again right before elections would most likely destroy any chances he might otherwise have to get re-elected. The Republicans know this, and don't want to give him that bandage. And why should they? But, Obama is willing to sacrifice all of us for his AGENDA, which includes re-election, of course.
So, Len... it's all about Obama's agenda... Obama-care, tax increases, and getting re-elected. If he is re-elected, you haven't seen anything yet... that's when second-term presidents generally show what they are really about... that's when we would see Obama's final agenda for America.
TM
From what I have seen in the deeply red and fairly poor south, lots of those dependents don't vote for leftists. Hard to blame it all on the welfare cases.
Our hopes for a trickle down wonderland need a reality check.
I believe that turned out to be yet another perversion of ObamaTruth for campaign purposes. She had medical insurance.
"It is too much to say that Obama told an intentionally tall tale to mislead the public. But it also is incorrect to say that he told a true story. According to Janny Scott, a New York Times writer and author of the book "A Singular Woman: The Untold Story of Barack Obama's Mother," Dunham's cancer treatments were covered by her employer's insurance policy. She was denied disability insurance, which would have helped Dunham pay her deductible or unreimbursed medical costs. These apparently ran into the hundreds per month.
A distinction without a difference? This is a question for Americans to decide. Yes, it's true that Dunham was denied disability and she hired her son, whom she identified as her lawyer, to pursue legal recourse. But it is false that she was denied coverage of her treatment, as Obama clearly said."
""I will never forget my own mother, as she fought cancer in her final months, having to worry about whether her insurance would refuse to pay for her treatment," Obama told a sympathetic nation.
http://www.statesmanjournal.com/article/20110722/OPINION/107220316/Obama-s-basis- -health-reform-not-entirely-true"
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Well... if so, then what would motivate him to have such an agenda? He was on a mission. If you suggest that his mother's situation was a political ploy, then what would be the motivating factor that would have driven him to put EVERYTHING America needed on the back burner in order to implement such an agenda?
TM
A just-released study by the Center for Responsive Politics shows that President Obama is relying more on Wall Street to fund his re-election this year than he did in 2008, according to CNBC, which obtained an advance copy of the report.
The report says that one-third of the money Obama's elite fund-raising corps has raised on behalf of his re-election has come from the financial sector.
"Individuals who work in the finance, insurance, and real estate sector are responsible for raising at least $11.3 million for Obama's campaign and the Democratic National Committee," the report says.
And, all of Obama's “bundlers” — top fundraisers who obtain donations from people and groups in their business, professional, and personal networks — have raised a minimum of $34.95 million.
Obama has even added new Wall Streeters who did not work for him in 2008, including former Goldman Sachs CEO Jon Corzine, Evercore Partners executive Charles Myers, Greenstreet Real Estate Partners CEO Steven Green, and Azita Raji, a former investment banker for JPMorgan.
Obama and the DNC combined are on pace to far exceed the amounts Obama raised from Wall Street donors in 2008, both in raw dollar amounts and as a percentage of what he raises overall.
Tax the RICH that don't contribute
D'ont forget it was an agenda the population didn't want. People all over the world send their sick here because we have the best doctors and healthcare and he wants to change it so that doctors have a lot less motivation. Markets fix themselves when prices get out of hand. That's another thing Obama doesn't get or refuses to accept.