Gold is up to $1695.90 in over seas trading. A sure sign of what is coming tomorrow on the stock market, MAYBE. I will ride er out to. I have been down before. Not planning on spending any until I have to.
Gary, I think it is a very real possibility that gold might top out before too long. I've never seen so many advertisements from gold companies, selling gold. That tells me they are eager to make profits at these levels. They want to sell.
It would not surprise me to see gold go off a cliff once the markets stabilize.
Unless, of course, the markets aren't going to stabilize, in which case gold will hit 2000.
Selling any amount of gold will make you a target. So many new rules on those transactions. On January 1st 2012 any transaction over $600 will have to be reported to the IRS and a 1099 sent out. Which means selling one gold coin will be recorded with the IRS. I suspect it will create an underground market for precious metals, antiques etc etc. If you sell or buy on eBay you will be subject to this new law. Part of Obamacare.
Starting Jan. 1, 2012, Form 1099s will become a means of reporting to the Internal Revenue Service the purchases of all goods and services by small businesses and self-employed people that exceed $600 during a calendar year. Precious metals such as coins and bullion fall into this category and coin dealers have been among those most rankled by the change.
This provision, intended to mine what the IRS deems a vast reservoir of uncollected income tax, was included in the health care legislation ostensibly as a way to pay for it. The tax code tweak is expected to raise $17 billion over the next 10 years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.
Also, who are these S & P "geniuses" in the first place? What gives these dudes the power or the expertise to make these decisions?
Moody's have also said the US needs to cut spending more.
Moody's says U.S. needs to find more deficit cuts
REUTERS — 4:10 AM ET 08/08/11
By Walter Brandimarte
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ratings agency Moody's repeated a warning on Monday it could downgrade the United States before 2013 if the fiscal or economic outlook weakens significantly, but said it saw the potential for a new debt agreement in Washington to cut the budget deficit before then.
With U.S. markets still to open after rival Standard & Poor's stripped the United States of its AAA rating late on Friday, Moody's said in a statement its own decision to affirm the AAA rating on August 2 was on the condition that further cuts were found.
"For the Aaa rating to remain in place, we would look for further measures that would result in the ratio of federal government debt to GDP, for example, peaking not far above the projected 2012 level of near 75 percent by the middle of the decade and then declining over the longer term," Moody's analyst Steven Hess wrote in a report.
"Last week's agreement suggests that coming to an agreement that would meet this criterion by early 2013 will be challenging, given the political polarization, but not necessarily impossible."
Questions about whether U.S. lawmakers will be able to agree on further budget savings next year lie at the center of the disagreement between the two ratings agencies.
While S&P downgraded the United States to AA-plus after last week's debt deal fell short of its expectations, Moody's is willing to give the government more time tackle its debt problems.
That means real cuts, not the current smoke and mirrors cuts.
I hope Our President and Congress are paying attention. Time to make the hard decisions and quit pointing the finger of blame at everyone but themselves.
Selling any amount of gold will make you a target. So many new rules on those transactions. On January 1st 2012 any transaction over $600 will have to be reported to the IRS and a 1099 sent out.
I strongly believe that anyone holding large amounts of gold should be thrilled with their current positions, and not get greedy, and sell at least 50% of their gold now...and the remaining 50% can be held as long as they want, as long as they watch the market.
As I've heard Cramer and others say... bulls can make money and even bears can make money, but pigs get slaughtered.
We have considered that. However Capital gains would be a killer. There is no guarantee the Feds won't kick CG up this year. Living in CA we are already paying 25% on LTCG. Then I am stuck with what to do with the cash. I would rather trade it on some sort of 1031 property exchange. I think Utah is now accepting gold as legal tender. This may be the way to handle gold coins.
Craig Franco hopes to cash in on it with his Utah Gold and Silver Depository, and he thinks others will soon follow.
The idea is simple: Store your gold and silver coins in a vault, and Franco issues a debit-like card to make purchases backed by your holdings.
He plans to open for business June 1, likely the first of its kind in the country.
"Because we're dealing with something so forward thinking, I expect a wait-and-see attitude," Franco said. "Once the depository is executed and transactions can occur, then I think people will move into the marketplace."
If we are really honest with ourselves, as much as we regret the downgrade, I believe it is totally justified. The United States of America is the most powerful country in the world and the leader of the free world. We should without fail be the ultimate shining example to the entire world, yet we are not.
As a country, we are currently not what we should (and can) be.
Sure, we wouldn't want to live anywhere else, but that is not the point, nor an excuse, and it is often used as an excuse.
Truly, our fiscal house in not even close to what it should be. Our economy is a mess. Our unemployment crisis and our housing crisis are not shining examples. Our health care and education systems could and should be better. Our national security has frightening holes in it, and of course our political process has been hijacked by special interests and partisan politics. There have been years of too many corporate and government scandals that have tarnished our reputation as well. Our borders have been overrun and our system continues to be strained by illegal aliens. And, we cannot seem to be able to balance our county's checkbook, nor come up with a fair and simple tax policy.
When we truly love our country enough, we will fight for her... not just by military means, but by being true patriotic citizens and speaking out the truth and standing up for her, and by trying to rid her of corruption and striving to make her better, and reach her potential.
It's ridiculous and pathetic to hear our leaders and others compare our country's rating to the ratings of other little countries around the globe... like a bunch of cry babies. Heck, we should always be held to a higher standard... in fact the very highest standard. We are the United States of America... America the Beautiful... In God We Trust.
We are supposed to be the beacon to the world. Yes, we deserve the downgrade, and if we don't get our act together we will deserve another one.
CG will only apply to any portion of your sales that is documented, and even then, it's not that terrible. The subsequent potential decline in gold would offset much of that anyway.
And, if you sell 50% now, you would still have the remaining 50% to monitor over the near or long term.
This could very well be your best chance to sell, and if you need to pay CG on the portion that is documented, so be it. You will still come out smelling sweet, and this potential opportunity will not last forever.
Do not be greedy, nor lazy. It certainly appears that you have a rare and historic moment here for you to take advantage of. And you would only be selling about 50%.
Don't forget... pigs get slaughtered.
As far as the cash goes, it makes better sense to have it on hand to invest in something that will appreciate than in a commodity that is very poised for a decline. I'm sure you can figure something out. You are a smart fellow.
FWIW... the situation is yours, not mine. I am only trying to respectfully offer a perspective for you to consider.
Hey TM, I went on vacation for 2 weeks and my portfolio got hammered. I was not around to participate in shorting the markets/. I am in the process of reloading my account with cash on hand to jump in when it turns around. I think it's too late to short it now.
Edit: I think I will short something. Looks like the slides are still in full swing. Any recommendation?
I totally agree with your analysis. I hope one of these days they figure out you cannot fix everything by throwing more money at the problem.
On selling gold. I did sell a sizable amount when it hit $500. I could not believe it would go any higher. Now that cash is worth about 15% less than it was when I gave my gold for it. I kind of think gold is still one of the best hedges against the declining dollar and the subsequent inflation it will cause. If it does start to rapidly decline I would probably sell half at $1000. Still way more CG than I would like to pay. That said, if I found some property I wanted to buy I would consider selling the gold to buy it. Probably not in CA.
I don't see the dollar ever gaining in buying power. Except against other weaker currencies. The dollar has been on a downward slope for the last 100 years. Inflation has averaged over 4% since at least 1960
I am not banking on gold going up further. It is only about 15% of our net worth at this time. In fact my wife considered giving each of her 17 nieces and nephews some gold for Christmas this next year. They will likely end up with it anyway. Give them a little boost in these hard times.
I turned all my positions to cash 2 weeks ago. Still within their respective "vehicles", but on the sidelines for now.
I also am very concerned about the price of gold.
Scott... That's perfect... you are in a terrific position.
The market indexes are down around 15% - 20%, depending upon the index. I am down just a little over 2%... I would have done better, but I made that stupid mistake recently. That said, I am not complaining at all. I feel quite fortunate to be only off 2%.
Yes, I really think gold may be closing in on an all-time high. I would put the VERY highest number for gold between 2000 and MAYBE 2500 if the economy totally tanks... but I don't think I'm about to predict that the economy is going to totally tank... at least not yet.
IMO, the equities are poised for a recovery rally at any time now, but it could be a false rally... there is no way to know yet. So far, every attempt the market makes to stage a comeback is met with a selloff.
I shorted C for about 1 hr and made some coins. Too bad I was not around last week. I think shorting gold and VIX funds could be good for the near term. However, I want to have a lot of cash on hands when the markets turns around, unless we are going into a depression :surprise:
Not sure I would actually go so far as to short gold just yet. I think it will hang around its highs for a while, and might even go a little higher before finally pulling back.
My whole take on gold is that it is NEAR it's high... and I always say that a bullseye is not necessary to be successful, so that's why I'd be a seller if I owned it, but I personally would not short it... it's too risky.
Just wait for this market to prove a bottom, and be ready to go in big.
My whole take on gold is that it is NEAR it's high.
As a commodity Gold is not like oil. If you get stuck with a 1000 barrels of oil you will not likely have a place to put it. You can carry $20,000 worth of gold coins in your pocket. If you sell those coins and have $20,000 in cash, you have to give 25% of the difference from when you bought it. So at that point you have to make up that 25% to be even. Of course if the gold market tanks a person might have been better off. If I could find a nice farm and use a 1031 trade I would defer the CG until the farm is sold, probably by my heirs. However if gold does start down fast I always have plan "B".
Charlie, I figured you'd have been out because you so brilliantly saw the 2008 market collapse.
I thought I made it clear a few days ago that I did not see the current situation similar to 2008. Thus, I am in it for the long term. I obviously NEVER thought it would get this ugly once we reached a debt ceiling deal. I was more wrong than wrong if that's possible. I am still in with all my stocks and losing big time at this point. But I imagine that big time for me would be miniscule for someone like you TM .
I am still in with all my stocks and losing big time at this point.
Don't feel like the Lone Ranger, I did not sell anything and have lost a bunch. I have a hard time selling when it is below what I paid. I am sure it is a character flaw. I have ridden stocks all the way to bankruptcy on a couple occasions. All I have are worthless stock certificates to remind me.
I thought I made it clear a few days ago that I did not see the current situation similar to 2008. Thus, I am in it for the long term.
Yes, you made it clear.
My apology. I thought that as the situation changed, so might your perspective.
Cramer always says, when the situation changes, you must change your strategy along with it... or suffer the consequences.
I am still in with all my stocks and losing big time at this point. But I imagine that big time for me would be miniscule for someone like you TM
HA! No, charlie, that is not the case at all. I think there is a false impression that I have a massive investment account. I do not. I think what gives that false impression is that I am willing (and crazy enough) to roll a large portion of it on a single trade. Not all of it... no way... but certainly a lot of it, and I have only done that occassionally in order to maximize a return. For example, when the market was falling off a cliff last week, I used about $700,000 to short the market for all of about 30 seconds. I was scared, but confident in my decision. During those seconds, I watched the "profit" column grow so fast, the numbers were a blur... it was insane. But, as I posted, it only helped to replenish some of my previous screw ups, and I was grateful. Later, however, I was cautious to invest even as much as $40,000, and I made that my investment/ trading limit for much of the day.
Anyway, I think it is the opposite of what you said. I think it is more accurate to say that YOUR losses are probably big time for ME, and miniscule for YOU. I would FREAK OUT if I was losing as much as I believe you are losing, even based upon your last assessment of your losses, and they are certainly much worse now because you have stayed in the market.
I totally respect your investment strategy, but I don't totally agree with it. I just don't understand the reason for staying in during a huge downturn, when you can minimize a lot of the losses. And even ring the register with some gains... and then go right back in and buy the same positions for less money per share.
Anyway, no matter what, I would venture to guess that the VERY LONG-TERM outcome will be favorable for you, and that makes me very glad for you. I truly want you to make a fortune on AAPL and all your other investments. IMHO, you honestly deserve it.
I have some cash on hand if I can figure out when and how to use it. What we should have is a list of sure winners to buy when this panic selling ended. The criteria should be minimum 20% quick gain for example QLIK if it reached $23-24 again.
There is a dangerous misconception that the market is going to return to its former highs relatively soon.
I highly doubt that outcome.
This is a NEW game with NEW rules.
We really need to see the TRUE bottom before we can answer your criteria of what might provide a 20% gain. And, there are other factors... for example, some sectors might suffer, depending upon the outcome. For example, if it is true that we have now entered the first days of a recession, as MANY have now declared, then it will become apparent that some businesses will be impacted more than others.
I think it is still too challenging to know where we are right now.
Btw, I need to clarify something. When I said I am losing big time I really meant that I lost the huge profits that I had. I am not really losing but lost basically all of my profits.
Btw, I need to clarify something. When I said I am losing big time I really meant that I lost the huge profits that I had. I am not really losing but lost basically all of my profits.
You have a significant decline in the valuation of your account. In my book that's a LOSS.
But, I think I know what you are saying.
I suppose you are suggesting that the amount of money you first invested in the E-Trade account is your BASE, and that everything that increased in value from that point is your gain? And now, you have lost all of that gain?
I suppose you are suggesting that the amount of money you first invested in the E-Trade account is your BASE, and that everything that increased in value from that point is your gain? And now, you have lost all of that gain?
I guess that's one way to look at it.
Is that what you are saying?
Yes, that is exactly what i am saying. It still sucks no question about it. But it would be a lot worse if I was losing 20% from my initial base as opposed to now being flat.
I also have that screwy way of looking at my accounts. I am still well above what was in my 401K (IRA) when I retired. If the market goes down a lot more I could lose some of my initial investment. Same for my wife's and my Scottrade account. My fear is selling the stocks and having them turn around within an instant and leave me holding cash. That is what happened to my buddy during the 2008 crash. He sold all his Fidelity mutual funds close to the bottom and then did not know when to get back in. So he is well behind where he would be if had just left it all alone.
Yes, that is exactly what i am saying. It still sucks no question about it. But it would be a lot worse if I was losing 20% from my initial base as opposed to now being flat.
Gotcha.
Hopefully, as we move forward, the market doesn't start chipping away at your base. That would suck even more.
Rogers: "Bankrupt" U.S. Will Never Pay Back Its Bills
The U.S. government deserves the downgrade Standard and Poor's slapped on its ratings, because the country has run up so many debts it will never get out of the hole, say famed commodities investor Jim Rogers.
Standard and Poor's cut the country's ratings on Aug. 5 to AA+ from AAA on concerns the government is not doing enough to address its debt burdens.
The agency is being too nice, as Washington probably doesn't even deserve the AA+ rating, Rogers tells CNBC.
"It seems to me it's physically, humanly impossible for the U.S. to ever pay off its debt," he says. "They can roll it over and continue to play the charade, but the U.S. is bankrupt."
Investors should go long on gold and commodities, which will perform well while equities and currency markets digest the extent of the fallout the downgrade will have.
"You should nearly always buy into panic just like you should sell hysteria," Rogers says.
"I own gold, I'm worried about gold, it's going so up so much, I'm not going to sell it but it looks like it's setting itself up for a nice correction. I hope so. Then I can buy more."
It is ironically contrarian that when EVERYBODY says jump in, that is usually a "signal" that a top is in and it is time to get out while the sheep are slaughtered...having said that, it might imply that gold (and silver???) is at or near the top...
While not minimizing the downgrade, going from AAA to AA+ is like the student who had a 100 on his test later find out he really missed one question and his grade was "only" a 98...
With Greece, Spain, Italy, etc going down the tubes as we speak, just how many countries have a better rating than ours???...alternatively, how many of the rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch (formerly Duff & Phelps) and Weiss) rated Enron a good company until it failed overnight???
Can the euro replace the dollar???...I don't think so, and I don't see the world suddenly using the yen...I think the dollar wins by (ahem) default...
I think silver and gold may go up some from here, but to see gold at $5000 and silver at $100 per ounce may just be a little farfetched...
Gold is at a point that marginal claims are worth opening again. It will reach an equilibrium based on availability. They are opening a mine in CA that has been idle for eons. There is still a lot of gold in the ground. That will be more of a determining factor IMO.
But isn't that just the problem???...as gold goes higher, that makes more of the marginal mines profitable, bringing MORE gold to market...if supply goes up, unless demand goes up with it, price should come down...
And, with every corner having a "We Buy Gold" store, doesn't that indicate something???...I see them literally across the street from each other in more places than I can count...
And, if the gold/silver market is manipulated like the dotcom market was, the drop will make Bunker Hunt look like pattycake...
Please elaborate, are you saying this is a repeat of 2008? I think this is just a big ploy to make things look better in the coming election year.
I am saying that we are all victims of something very horrible and sinister. We have all worked hard and tried to invest and played by the rules.
But, when I posted that this is a new game with new rules, I realized that we can't play by the old rules any more. They don't work. The game has changed.
I'm not really sure who has changed it, or why, but I have my ideas, and many of them are sad and very frightening.
None of us deserved this. The people of the world are being played like ragdolls, and trillions of dollars are being drained...
Who benefits? Figure THAT out and you'll have your answer to this whole freaking mess.
Be careful.
Even the next rally will be a sucker's rally. Be careful at EVERY step you take. Or you will lose more of your money than you ever imagined.
Comments
It would not surprise me to see gold go off a cliff once the markets stabilize.
Unless, of course, the markets aren't going to stabilize, in which case gold will hit 2000.
TM
1. Don't own any equities,
2. Have a few cold ones and a Subway sandwich at the beach,
3. Repurchase equities when the blood bath is finally over.
:shades:
TM
If I owned gold now I would watch it carefully and probably sell enough to make back my investment plus a little profit, then see what happens.
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
Starting Jan. 1, 2012, Form 1099s will become a means of reporting to the Internal Revenue Service the purchases of all goods and services by small businesses and self-employed people that exceed $600 during a calendar year. Precious metals such as coins and bullion fall into this category and coin dealers have been among those most rankled by the change.
This provision, intended to mine what the IRS deems a vast reservoir of uncollected income tax, was included in the health care legislation ostensibly as a way to pay for it. The tax code tweak is expected to raise $17 billion over the next 10 years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.
I'm sure you can figure it out.
But, be careful if/when the bubble bursts.
Get ready for the crashing roller coaster this Monday morning!!! moments away.
TM
Moody's have also said the US needs to cut spending more.
Moody's says U.S. needs to find more deficit cuts
REUTERS — 4:10 AM ET 08/08/11
By Walter Brandimarte
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ratings agency Moody's repeated a warning on Monday it could downgrade the United States before 2013 if the fiscal or economic outlook weakens significantly, but said it saw the potential for a new debt agreement in Washington to cut the budget deficit before then.
With U.S. markets still to open after rival Standard & Poor's stripped the United States of its AAA rating late on Friday, Moody's said in a statement its own decision to affirm the AAA rating on August 2 was on the condition that further cuts were found.
"For the Aaa rating to remain in place, we would look for further measures that would result in the ratio of federal government debt to GDP, for example, peaking not far above the projected 2012 level of near 75 percent by the middle of the decade and then declining over the longer term," Moody's analyst Steven Hess wrote in a report.
"Last week's agreement suggests that coming to an agreement that would meet this criterion by early 2013 will be challenging, given the political polarization, but not necessarily impossible."
Questions about whether U.S. lawmakers will be able to agree on further budget savings next year lie at the center of the disagreement between the two ratings agencies.
While S&P downgraded the United States to AA-plus after last week's debt deal fell short of its expectations, Moody's is willing to give the government more time tackle its debt problems.
That means real cuts, not the current smoke and mirrors cuts.
I guess they're "terrorists" also :surprise: .
That was repealed in April of 2011:
http://www.taxgirl.com/controversial-1099-reporting-requirements-repealed/
I strongly believe that anyone holding large amounts of gold should be thrilled with their current positions, and not get greedy, and sell at least 50% of their gold now...and the remaining 50% can be held as long as they want, as long as they watch the market.
As I've heard Cramer and others say... bulls can make money and even bears can make money, but pigs get slaughtered.
TM
S&P ranks Spain barely lower, of all places.
Craig Franco hopes to cash in on it with his Utah Gold and Silver Depository, and he thinks others will soon follow.
The idea is simple: Store your gold and silver coins in a vault, and Franco issues a debit-like card to make purchases backed by your holdings.
He plans to open for business June 1, likely the first of its kind in the country.
"Because we're dealing with something so forward thinking, I expect a wait-and-see attitude," Franco said. "Once the depository is executed and transactions can occur, then I think people will move into the marketplace."
As a country, we are currently not what we should (and can) be.
Sure, we wouldn't want to live anywhere else, but that is not the point, nor an excuse, and it is often used as an excuse.
Truly, our fiscal house in not even close to what it should be. Our economy is a mess. Our unemployment crisis and our housing crisis are not shining examples. Our health care and education systems could and should be better. Our national security has frightening holes in it, and of course our political process has been hijacked by special interests and partisan politics. There have been years of too many corporate and government scandals that have tarnished our reputation as well. Our borders have been overrun and our system continues to be strained by illegal aliens. And, we cannot seem to be able to balance our county's checkbook, nor come up with a fair and simple tax policy.
When we truly love our country enough, we will fight for her... not just by military means, but by being true patriotic citizens and speaking out the truth and standing up for her, and by trying to rid her of corruption and striving to make her better, and reach her potential.
It's ridiculous and pathetic to hear our leaders and others compare our country's rating to the ratings of other little countries around the globe... like a bunch of cry babies. Heck, we should always be held to a higher standard... in fact the very highest standard. We are the United States of America... America the Beautiful... In God We Trust.
We are supposed to be the beacon to the world. Yes, we deserve the downgrade, and if we don't get our act together we will deserve another one.
TM
And, if you sell 50% now, you would still have the remaining 50% to monitor over the near or long term.
This could very well be your best chance to sell, and if you need to pay CG on the portion that is documented, so be it. You will still come out smelling sweet, and this potential opportunity will not last forever.
Do not be greedy, nor lazy. It certainly appears that you have a rare and historic moment here for you to take advantage of. And you would only be selling about 50%.
Don't forget... pigs get slaughtered.
As far as the cash goes, it makes better sense to have it on hand to invest in something that will appreciate than in a commodity that is very poised for a decline. I'm sure you can figure something out. You are a smart fellow.
FWIW... the situation is yours, not mine. I am only trying to respectfully offer a perspective for you to consider.
TM
Have you been shorting this market? Did you get stuck in a bad position?
Has this market been hammering you, or are you in good shape?
What's up GS?
TM
I am in the process of reloading my account with cash on hand to jump in when it turns around. I think it's too late to short it now.
Edit: I think I will short something. Looks like the slides are still in full swing. Any recommendation?
On selling gold. I did sell a sizable amount when it hit $500. I could not believe it would go any higher. Now that cash is worth about 15% less than it was when I gave my gold for it. I kind of think gold is still one of the best hedges against the declining dollar and the subsequent inflation it will cause. If it does start to rapidly decline I would probably sell half at $1000. Still way more CG than I would like to pay. That said, if I found some property I wanted to buy I would consider selling the gold to buy it. Probably not in CA.
Crazy as it sounds, I think gold could be getting too pricey.
If I see a market turnaround, I may start to leverage gains in the indexes (leveraged index fund, such as QLD).
Right now, I am in cash, and I like it.
TM
Regarding the dollar, I think it will ultimately INCREASE in value... given the alternatives.
TM
http://www.dollartimes.com/calculators/inflation.htm
I am not banking on gold going up further. It is only about 15% of our net worth at this time. In fact my wife considered giving each of her 17 nieces and nephews some gold for Christmas this next year. They will likely end up with it anyway. Give them a little boost in these hard times.
Are you sure I'm not related? I may need to check Ancestry.com.
Seriously... nice gift, terrific wife.
TM
Charlie, I figured you'd have been out because you so brilliantly saw the 2008 market collapse.
TM
I turned all my positions to cash 2 weeks ago. Still within their respective "vehicles", but on the sidelines for now.
I also am very concerned about the price of gold. :surprise:
I also am very concerned about the price of gold.
Scott... That's perfect... you are in a terrific position.
The market indexes are down around 15% - 20%, depending upon the index. I am down just a little over 2%... I would have done better, but I made that stupid mistake recently. That said, I am not complaining at all. I feel quite fortunate to be only off 2%.
Yes, I really think gold may be closing in on an all-time high. I would put the VERY highest number for gold between 2000 and MAYBE 2500 if the economy totally tanks... but I don't think I'm about to predict that the economy is going to totally tank... at least not yet.
IMO, the equities are poised for a recovery rally at any time now, but it could be a false rally... there is no way to know yet. So far, every attempt the market makes to stage a comeback is met with a selloff.
TM
I think shorting gold and VIX funds could be good for the near term. However, I want to have a lot of cash on hands when the markets turns around, unless we are going into a depression :surprise:
My whole take on gold is that it is NEAR it's high... and I always say that a bullseye is not necessary to be successful, so that's why I'd be a seller if I owned it, but I personally would not short it... it's too risky.
Just wait for this market to prove a bottom, and be ready to go in big.
TM
2013 LX 570 2016 LS 460
As a commodity Gold is not like oil. If you get stuck with a 1000 barrels of oil you will not likely have a place to put it. You can carry $20,000 worth of gold coins in your pocket. If you sell those coins and have $20,000 in cash, you have to give 25% of the difference from when you bought it. So at that point you have to make up that 25% to be even. Of course if the gold market tanks a person might have been better off. If I could find a nice farm and use a 1031 trade I would defer the CG until the farm is sold, probably by my heirs. However if gold does start down fast I always have plan "B".
Charlie, I figured you'd have been out because you so brilliantly saw the 2008 market collapse.
I thought I made it clear a few days ago that I did not see the current situation similar to 2008. Thus, I am in it for the long term. I obviously NEVER thought it would get this ugly once we reached a debt ceiling deal. I was more wrong than wrong if that's possible. I am still in with all my stocks and losing big time at this point. But I imagine that big time for me would be miniscule for someone like you TM
Don't feel like the Lone Ranger, I did not sell anything and have lost a bunch. I have a hard time selling when it is below what I paid. I am sure it is a character flaw. I have ridden stocks all the way to bankruptcy on a couple occasions. All I have are worthless stock certificates to remind me.
Now, just stay cautious and ready, and don't fall into a "bear" trap ... no pun intended.
TM
Yes, you made it clear.
My apology. I thought that as the situation changed, so might your perspective.
Cramer always says, when the situation changes, you must change your strategy along with it... or suffer the consequences.
I am still in with all my stocks and losing big time at this point. But I imagine that big time for me would be miniscule for someone like you TM
HA! No, charlie, that is not the case at all. I think there is a false impression that I have a massive investment account. I do not. I think what gives that false impression is that I am willing (and crazy enough) to roll a large portion of it on a single trade. Not all of it... no way... but certainly a lot of it, and I have only done that occassionally in order to maximize a return. For example, when the market was falling off a cliff last week, I used about $700,000 to short the market for all of about 30 seconds. I was scared, but confident in my decision. During those seconds, I watched the "profit" column grow so fast, the numbers were a blur... it was insane. But, as I posted, it only helped to replenish some of my previous screw ups, and I was grateful. Later, however, I was cautious to invest even as much as $40,000, and I made that my investment/ trading limit for much of the day.
Anyway, I think it is the opposite of what you said. I think it is more accurate to say that YOUR losses are probably big time for ME, and miniscule for YOU. I would FREAK OUT if I was losing as much as I believe you are losing, even based upon your last assessment of your losses, and they are certainly much worse now because you have stayed in the market.
I totally respect your investment strategy, but I don't totally agree with it. I just don't understand the reason for staying in during a huge downturn, when you can minimize a lot of the losses. And even ring the register with some gains... and then go right back in and buy the same positions for less money per share.
Anyway, no matter what, I would venture to guess that the VERY LONG-TERM outcome will be favorable for you, and that makes me very glad for you. I truly want you to make a fortune on AAPL and all your other investments. IMHO, you honestly deserve it.
TM
What we should have is a list of sure winners to buy when this panic selling ended. The criteria should be minimum 20% quick gain for example QLIK if it reached $23-24 again.
I highly doubt that outcome.
This is a NEW game with NEW rules.
We really need to see the TRUE bottom before we can answer your criteria of what might provide a 20% gain. And, there are other factors... for example, some sectors might suffer, depending upon the outcome. For example, if it is true that we have now entered the first days of a recession, as MANY have now declared, then it will become apparent that some businesses will be impacted more than others.
I think it is still too challenging to know where we are right now.
TM
You have a significant decline in the valuation of your account. In my book that's a LOSS.
But, I think I know what you are saying.
I suppose you are suggesting that the amount of money you first invested in the E-Trade account is your BASE, and that everything that increased in value from that point is your gain? And now, you have lost all of that gain?
I guess that's one way to look at it.
Is that what you are saying?
TM
I guess that's one way to look at it.
Is that what you are saying?
Yes, that is exactly what i am saying. It still sucks no question about it. But it would be a lot worse if I was losing 20% from my initial base as opposed to now being flat.
I also have that screwy way of looking at my accounts. I am still well above what was in my 401K (IRA) when I retired. If the market goes down a lot more I could lose some of my initial investment. Same for my wife's and my Scottrade account. My fear is selling the stocks and having them turn around within an instant and leave me holding cash. That is what happened to my buddy during the 2008 crash. He sold all his Fidelity mutual funds close to the bottom and then did not know when to get back in. So he is well behind where he would be if had just left it all alone.
Gotcha.
Hopefully, as we move forward, the market doesn't start chipping away at your base. That would suck even more.
TM
The U.S. government deserves the downgrade Standard and Poor's slapped on its ratings, because the country has run up so many debts it will never get out of the hole, say famed commodities investor Jim Rogers.
Standard and Poor's cut the country's ratings on Aug. 5 to AA+ from AAA on concerns the government is not doing enough to address its debt burdens.
The agency is being too nice, as Washington probably doesn't even deserve the AA+ rating, Rogers tells CNBC.
"It seems to me it's physically, humanly impossible for the U.S. to ever pay off its debt," he says. "They can roll it over and continue to play the charade, but the U.S. is bankrupt."
Investors should go long on gold and commodities, which will perform well while equities and currency markets digest the extent of the fallout the downgrade will have.
"You should nearly always buy into panic just like you should sell hysteria," Rogers says.
"I own gold, I'm worried about gold, it's going so up so much, I'm not going to sell it but it looks like it's setting itself up for a nice correction. I hope so. Then I can buy more."
While not minimizing the downgrade, going from AAA to AA+ is like the student who had a 100 on his test later find out he really missed one question and his grade was "only" a 98...
With Greece, Spain, Italy, etc going down the tubes as we speak, just how many countries have a better rating than ours???...alternatively, how many of the rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch (formerly Duff & Phelps) and Weiss) rated Enron a good company until it failed overnight???
Can the euro replace the dollar???...I don't think so, and I don't see the world suddenly using the yen...I think the dollar wins by (ahem) default...
I think silver and gold may go up some from here, but to see gold at $5000 and silver at $100 per ounce may just be a little farfetched...
And, with every corner having a "We Buy Gold" store, doesn't that indicate something???...I see them literally across the street from each other in more places than I can count...
And, if the gold/silver market is manipulated like the dotcom market was, the drop will make Bunker Hunt look like pattycake...
Please elaborate, are you saying this is a repeat of 2008?
I think this is just a big ploy to make things look better in the coming election year.
Absolutely true. However, if the price drops too much the mines close back down. Modern day miners are gambling millions that the price stays high.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/11/us/11gold.html?pagewanted=all
I think this is just a big ploy to make things look better in the coming election year.
I am saying that we are all victims of something very horrible and sinister. We have all worked hard and tried to invest and played by the rules.
But, when I posted that this is a new game with new rules, I realized that we can't play by the old rules any more. They don't work. The game has changed.
I'm not really sure who has changed it, or why, but I have my ideas, and many of them are sad and very frightening.
None of us deserved this. The people of the world are being played like ragdolls, and trillions of dollars are being drained...
Who benefits? Figure THAT out and you'll have your answer to this whole freaking mess.
Be careful.
Even the next rally will be a sucker's rally. Be careful at EVERY step you take. Or you will lose more of your money than you ever imagined.
TM