Subaru Crew - Future Models II

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  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    If Subaru could offer a vehicle that's ever bit as good and roomy as an Odyssey, but drives like a Tribeca, it would seem like a win-win to me.

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I'm talking about the GM minivans, i.e. the possibility of Subaru having to sell a clone of those.

    The GM vans have been slow selling and this is what I fear.

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    God, I hope not!

    Bob
  • kenskens Member Posts: 5,869
    Good question. As with other manufacturers, the US models typically get watered down options. My guess is that the US market is very price competitive relative to other countries so manufacturers reduce the number of product options to minimize selling, inventory and warranty costs.

    There's no technical reason why the 4EAT couldn't be used on a USDM model.

    Ken
  • sweet_subiesweet_subie Member Posts: 1,394
    not even as big as odyssey. Tribeca has bigger dimensions than the Mazda MPV, build a minivan quickly off this, it would be a good success. SInce all minivans grew in size, it leaves MPV category lonely.
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    They grew in size because that's what most of the customers want. Small minivans, like the MPV, just don't sell well.

    Bob
  • once_for_allonce_for_all Member Posts: 1,640
    a revised Baja. Anyone hear of the '06 specs yet? With the new 173 hp engine, or the 2mpg more XT engine, I could persuade myself to get one. But I have a Honda Ridgeline salesman trying to move one of his 12 trucks onto me, and it is getting hard to resist...

    John
  • sweet_subiesweet_subie Member Posts: 1,394
    i disagree. Mazda has a noisy/underpowered engine & its resale value sucks. otherwise, it will sell well. Plus, Subaru doesn;t need to sell so many. if it can carve a niche, that'll do.
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Every small minivan out there has failed to attract customers, not just Mazda. Compare the sales of the long-wheelbase Dodge/Chryslers with their short-wheelbase models. The SWB models sell maybe (?) 10% of the LWB models.

    Bob
  • sweet_subiesweet_subie Member Posts: 1,394
    even that 10% will make it worthwhile for subaru to make one off tribeca platform. also, since subaru is always a niche player, this would be a nice niche for them.
  • bluesubiebluesubie Member Posts: 3,497
    "How come? What makes the Sportshift 4EAT not suitable for US models?"

    Yes, the JDM WRX has had it for several years.

    And why no VTD and Sportshift on the Forester?
    Why no 17's on the N. American Forester?
    Why no Nav on the Forester?
    Why no STi Forester?
    Why no lo range on the Forester (which I could've used the past weekend)?

    This list could go on and on. :) Keeping the costs down? Maybe. But Subaru is getting passed by other manufacturers and is losing out on a heap of money being spent in the aftermarket.

    -Dennis
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    They would sort of have the small van segment to themselves. Kia's will grow, Mazda's will grow, so they'd really only be competing with Dodge.

    -juice
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    They would sort of have the small van segment to themselves. Kia's will grow, Mazda's will grow, so they'd really only be competing with Dodge

    Actually, Kia has already grown. Mazda is supposedly leaving the segment altogether. Quest, Odyssey, Sienna all grew up and abandoned the segment. Should Subaru enter a segment that everyone else deemed not worthy?

    True, they'd only be competing with Dodge but in what I would consider a bottom feeder segment. IMHO, the majority of sales of small minivans are to bargain hunters - not the market Subaru aspires to.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Are you sure? Most MPVs I see are higher end models.

    Dodge makes plenty base models but for fleets mostly.

    -juice
  • once_for_allonce_for_all Member Posts: 1,640
    if we carry the "bigger is better" theme we don't get anywhere except ever increasing vehicle size.

    The fact is there is a market segment that has been abandoned. Our MPV is extremely well laid out and space efficient. 7 are comfortable. Seats move in and out and sideways.

    I agree with Subie, this is a niche opportunity with the others having fled chasing the bigger is better.

    John
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    I agree with Subie, this is a niche opportunity with the others having fled chasing the bigger is better.

    But there's a reason why everyone else has fled the segment. Hmm - not profitable?? I don't know the reason but that's the typical one.

    I realize that Subaru is a niche player, but if they play in niches where there's no money to be made they won't be playing very much of anything.
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Going head-on against Toyota and Honda won't work either, in fact it already failed in the first half of the 90s. Toss in Kia and Hyundai, plus Dodge with its huge investments, and Subaru would be lucky to be 6th in line in the minds of minivan shoppers.

    AWD is helpful, but Dodge and Toyota offer that too. Handling could rival the Odyssey, but it would be hard to compete on size and price.

    Is there a market for near-luxury vans? Maybe - locally the loaded up Siennas command a higher premium than base models do.

    This won't be an easy task. Perhaps Bob has the right idea - do a bigger version of the Tribeca and stay in the SUV/crossover segment, which is less price sensitive.

    B11 Soho, anyone?

    -juice
  • njswamplandsnjswamplands Member Posts: 1,760
  • sweet_subiesweet_subie Member Posts: 1,394
    it appears only MPV owners seem to appreciate the segment. A small minivan but space efficient for 7. No other SUV of same size can comfortable seat 7 as MPV does & MPV doesn;t handle like a typical heavy minivan.

    MPV does enjoy a niche. My wife & I are hesitant to sell MPV for tribeca because MPV does handle well but much more space efficient thanTribeca though its exterior dimensions are smaller. And My fully loaded MPV is 10k below Tribeca. Traction COntrol in our MPV does handle snow well.

    But its resale value sucks, so i may be stuck with it (blessing in disguise!)
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Perhaps Bob has the right idea - do a bigger version of the Tribeca and stay in the SUV/crossover segment, which is less price sensitive.

    Well, it would be the easiest, quickest (and cheapest) for them to do. It would just require whatever is needed to stretch/beef up the existing platform. I do think a larger engine is in order, whatever approach they take.

    If they do go this route, I'd also like to see more space behind the rear seats, when they're upright.

    Bob
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    http://www.autoweek.com/news.cms?newsId=102622

    The word "global" is used, suggesting a smaller minivan, and not Odyssey-sized.

    Also...

    Meanwhile, Mori says the company plans to freshen the Legacy in 2007 and redesign it in 2009. The Legacy is Subaru's best seller in the United States.

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    All good points but then why doesn't the MPV sell better than it does, given the price is right?

    Americans like Big Macs, they don't even sell a Small Mac or a Mid Mack. ;-)

    Whew, it'll be a real Subaru, not a GM clone.

    -juice
  • sweet_subiesweet_subie Member Posts: 1,394
    ford engine. that's why it doesn;t sell well.

    well, why doesn't subaru sell as well as other leading brands ? same reason. most people don;t know since this targets a niche market.
  • saedavesaedave Member Posts: 694
    Well, it would be the easiest, quickest (and cheapest) for them to do. It would just require whatever is needed to stretch/beef up the existing platform

    This month's Automotive Engineering had a cutaway provided by Subaru showing the reinforcement added to the Outback structure to make the Tribeca. The limit of stretching may have been reached already.
  • once_for_allonce_for_all Member Posts: 1,640
    But there's a reason why everyone else has fled the segment. Hmm - not profitable?? I don't know the reason but that's the typical one.

    They left because of too much competition.

    Now, the pendulum is in the other direction--the ONLY small, nimble, yet space efficienty mini-van is the MPV. It would be awful if Mazda decides to pull the MPV just when conditions are improved--competitors gone, gas prices up...

    What Mazda needs to do is capatalize on the situation and make its MPV more fuel efficient. Can they do that with the Ford Duratec? Maybe not.

    Without comparing actual numbers, I suspect that the Tribeca is pretty close to the dimensions of the Ody, Sienna, and Quest, excepting the length.

    John
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I doubt most people even know it's a Ford block, but if you mean it could be bigger vis-a-vis its competitors that might be one reason.

    saedave: stretch it in the middle, between the wheels. Then square off the back, and you'd have tons of space.

    -juice
  • robr2robr2 Member Posts: 8,805
    They left because of too much competition.

    Now, the pendulum is in the other direction--the ONLY small, nimble, yet space efficienty mini-van is the MPV. It would be awful if Mazda decides to pull the MPV just when conditions are improved--competitors gone, gas prices up...


    Everyone but Mazda left that size segment 3 years ago and Mazda still can't make a go of it - with no competition. North America doesn't want mini minivans. It wants the Grand Caravan, Odyssey, Sienna.

    Look at the history:

    1st Gen Odyssey was small. It was upsized and is now the #2 seller.

    1st Gen Sienna was small. It was upsized and is now the #3 seller.

    1st Gen Mazda was an SUV. 2nd Gen was small. 3rd Gen not even coming here.

    1st Gen Quest was small. It was upsized and is a compentent, but unloved vehicle but it probably outsells the original Quest.

    This is anecdotal - I have a friend with an MPV. He likes it but admits he bought it only because he refused to pay MSRP for an Odyssey 5 years ago. He also admits that it's too small for his family of 4.

    To be honest, I really do wish that this segment was big enough for products like the Opel Zafira, Ford Galaxy, VW Sharan, et al. But it isn't.
  • atlgaxtatlgaxt Member Posts: 501
    Subaru is not Honda or Toyota. They are not looking to dominate a category when they enter it. So I think they are better off not competing head to head with the others. A smaller, sportier minivan with AWD would be a good niche.

    At the same time, Subaru is not Mazda. I like Mazda, but especially with the resurgence of Nissan, they are becoming an also-ran. I know they are trying to differentiate themselves by being sporty, but I do not think that they have as clear an image and as strong a following as Subaru. Bottom line, I liked the MPV, and would probably get one if an minivan was in my future. But I think Subaru is better positioned to have success with a smaller, sportier minivan. Also, assuming that they build one on the Tribeca platform, they would not have to build a bunch to cover the costs and make some money. The more I think about it, a minivan makes more sense than a large upscale passenger car.
  • njswamplandsnjswamplands Member Posts: 1,760
    i tried the MPV and found it too small for all i ask of a minivan
  • subearusubearu Member Posts: 3,613
    We bought the MPV in '02 because I refused to pay MSRP+ for the Ody, which is what DW wanted. However, after driving the MPV, she liked it and preferred it.

    Mazda can tweak the current 3.0L Duratec - they already do so in the Mazda6. If only they'd share among product lines better :mad: The current front area won't really allow for a larger motor - it's already fairly tight in the engine bay. Forced induction, tuned heads, different gearing are really the only options they have currently.

    JDM MPV's get trip computers, AWD, Navigation. All things that could help sales here in the U.S.

    Most MPV's the last couple years have been fairly loaded up LX models. ES models are out there but not usually fully loaded up - that puts the sticker at close to $30k, which still might scare a shopper away even though MPVs easily go for $4k+ under invoice. I read alot elsewhere about people finding fairly base model LX's going for $18k or so, which is a heck of a deal for a good 6 passenger vehicle with smallish 7 passenger capabilities.

    The Mazda5 is getting good press coverage (and advertising), but still sees alot of concerns about the engine and if it's powerful enough for it. Wouldn't be the first time Mazda went low on engine power - the '00-'01 MPV had a 160-170hp 2.5L V6 Duratec which placed it at the low end of the spectrum in the minivan world.

    So far it looks like Mazda will be keeping the current MPV around for the '06 MY.

    -Brian
  • jeffmcjeffmc Member Posts: 1,742
    Here are URLs for illustrations apparently from 09/2003 regarding a small Subaru minivan. Note the Tribeca/2006 Impreza nose was displayed for us that long ago. The look's not too bad... Mazda5 body with '06 Impreza grill and Tribeca headlights. I think it'd be a mistake to not have sliding doors, though.

    http://ymmv.coffeehaus.com/archives/001325.html

    http://www.auto-motor-sport.de/d/44464

    From the blue drawing, the 3rd row would have very little space behind it, just like Tribeca. Will this just be a lower ground-clearance Tribeca with a taller roof? I actually like the red drawing a little better and I bet it's closer to the real thing. Nose is much closer to Tribeca's.

    Bob - was the 7-pass minivan-like vehicle you gave Subaru input on way back then the Tribeca, or something different?
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    I'm not sure I know what you're referring to?

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    You sure about that? The new Quest has kinda bombed. I bet the old Quest/Villager put together easily outsell the new Quest.

    That one may be the exception.

    Papa Bear: the Mazda6 has more HP but actually less torque IIRC. Not ideal for a minivan.

    At $18k they might be losing money, that's a great price. Wow.

    Still, I've seen people report paying $15.8k for the old/small Sedona LX.

    Subaru has to avoid that unprofitable price level, and try to come in at the mid 20s maybe.

    The red sketch looks like it is the Tribeca. The blue one looks like an R2 only taller. Door handles do seem to imply sliding (or suicide doors). But it's just a sketch.

    -juice
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I take that back - looking at the bigger picture, it's a bit different, though there is a lot of family resemblance.

    The red one looks better, especially the upswept D-pillar. Those lights won't make it, just as they didn't make it on to the new Impreza.

    I think we'll see a combination of the two, closer to the red one with lights more like the blue one.

    -juice
  • jeffmcjeffmc Member Posts: 1,742
    My fault, Bob. It was actually a quote you posted on NASIOC back in Sept. '03 from someone else's post on the Bay Area Impreza forum:

    Subaru Focus group...
    I spent part of Saturday afternoon at a Subaru focus group in Sunnyvale at Nichol's Research. We spent over an hour talking about car names and what we liked about badging. We also looked at a new 7-Seater Subaru Mini-van sort of looking thing. They talked about possible alpha-numeric combinations as a replacement for the Outback name. Possible new names fer Subaru cars were names like:

    Surveyor (For the new Minivan-looking SUV)
    B5-2.5T
    B9X
    B9000

    A lot of "B"'s, for Boxer. They even had replacement names for the WRX, but I can't remember what they were.

    There were about 8 of us there, all Subaru WRX wagon owners. I got my snack on and $100 for the time!
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Oh now I remember. My guess is that person was looking at a prototype of the Tribeca.

    Bob
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    has '06 Foresters now in stock, according to their web site.

    Bob
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Even though most of the USDM '06 models haven't been announced, here's what I think will happen for MY07:

    B9 Tribeca
    • Tweak the model "contenting" a bit. After one year under their belt, SOA will have a better handle on what's selling and what's not. I'm hoping NAV will be available across the entire Tribica lineup. I'm hoping that auto up/down power windows are offered, at least for the driver's window; same with auto open/close on the moonroof.

    • I expect an engine option, and most likely a low-boost 3.0 turbo, putting out around 300 hp/torque. And in typical Subaru fashion, most likely offered in a new top-of-the-line model; although I hope that's not the case. I also expect this to be a Tribeca exclusive for at least a year.

    Legacy and Outback
    • It will get a similar '06 Impreza-like new face.

    • My guess is the Legacy's center grille will get a chrome surround, and a Tribeca-like chrome horizontal bar on the outside wing portion of the grille, to make it look more upscale than the Impreza. Also expect a tweaked tail light design.

    • My guess is the Outback will get a slightly different grille insert than the Legacy, maybe integrating the current grille insert design theme with the new grille shape.

    • Under the skin I expect a slightly more powerful turbo, with ~ 270 HP, and mated to a 6-speed manual.

    • If the '06 2.5i doesn't get the 5EAT/Sportshift, I expect it to get it for '07.

    Forester
    • Hopefully the XT model will get 17" wheels and the 5EAT/Sportshift.

    Impreza
    • Hopefully the WRX will get the 5EAT/Sportshift, if it doesn't get it for '06.

    Note: These are just guesses on my part. I have nothing firm to back it up, other than I do know that the Legacy/Outback will get a facelift next year.

    Bob
  • sweet_subiesweet_subie Member Posts: 1,394
    http://www.autoweek.com/news.cms?newsId=102627

    "All future Saabs will be true Saab designs, not hybrids such as the Subaru-derived 9-2X or the Chevrolet TrailBlazer-derived 9-7X," the European dealer said. "The model strategy will be based on crossover vehicles and all-wheel drive."
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    A telescoping wheel for the 07 'beca too. Some people are asking for that. And Nav should definitely be an option on the 5 seater.

    Some type of backup assist system, too, either camera (with Nav) or sonar.

    One thing you forgot (or didn't list) is VDC - it has to spread throughout the lineup. Either that or Subaru needs a 2nd and more affordable form of stability control. Subaru made ABS standard in every car in 2002 so 5 years to add stability control is plenty, let's see it on every single model for MY2007.

    -juice
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Read between the lines, though, and all that means it Saab will differentiate their models more.

    The 9-3 share a platform with the Malibu and G6, and they didn't list that model. So that's what they mean - it'll look different enough that people won't think it's a WRX with a different badge.

    -juice
  • qbrozenqbrozen Member Posts: 33,254
    the info i get between the lines is that they are copying subaru.

    "crossover vehicles with AWD." that IS subaru.

    '11 GMC Sierra 1500; '98 Alfa 156 2.0TS; '08 Maser QP; '67 Coronet R/T; '13 Fiat 500c; '20 S90 T6; '22 MB Sprinter 2500 4x4 diesel; '97 Suzuki R Wagon; '96 Opel Astra; '11 Mini Cooper S

  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    LOL

    Although, they can't be serious. Saabs are quirky FWD turbo 4s. Not AWD boxers.

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    I only listed what I think will occur, not necessarily what I want to occur.

    Bob
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    And use The Force to get it done. :)

    -juice
  • rshollandrsholland Member Posts: 19,788
    Just trying to be realistic, based on what SOA has done in the past. :)

    Bob
  • declansdaddeclansdad Member Posts: 120
    For those in the know, did Subaru discontinue the rear wiper heater element? I was at the dealer this morining and decided to walk to the rear lot in search of the new 06s. I noticed that the side mirrors on the X are really small and the ones on the XS look similar to the ones found on the Lexus RX 330s. On the rear wipers, I could not find the heater element like I have on mine.

    IMHO, I'm still not a big fan of the facelift for the 60s.

    Michael
  • ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    That would be a bummer, though.

    All but the base X models do get the new mirrors with the turn signals. I think they're all heated, too, even the X Limited.

    -juice
  • kenskens Member Posts: 5,869
    Finally got to see a Tribeca and 06 Forester in person at the dealer today when I dropped off my LGT for it's 15K mile service.

    I was running late and didn't have time to sit inside them and take a good look, but my initial impressions:

    06 Forester: Looks less agressive than the 04-05 models, but the integration of the front bumper is done well. Typically, the USDM models get larger US-spec bumpers added on which results in a big "chin" on the cars as evidenced with the 05 Legacy/OB. The 06 Forester, in contrast, has no front bumper ridge making it look almost JDM-like (a good thing).

    Tribeca: I've looked at so many photos of this vehicle by now that it invoked almost no response when I saw it in person. It clearly stands out on the dealers lot and the front styling looks quite bold. I'll need to spend more time checking it out.

    Ken
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