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Comments
India has over 1 billion people and IMO the market has less competition.
China is big now, you have to look to the next big thing.
-juice
Maybe it's the old issue, "we get to designate these as trucks, so why bother spending any time or effort now they are free of pollution controls."
Like Steve wrote, personal auto ownership is exploding. Five years ago, there were very few models to choose from. Now, you can find choices approaching developed countries. It's simply amazing.
The downside is that the roads are getting jammed and air pollution has gotten worse.
Ken
Roads? They have roads? (j/k) I would think many of their roads are probably little more than dirt paths, once you leave the highly populated urban areas. Sounds like a Subie-friendly landscape.
Bob
~c
Nikon D70 or Canon Digital Rebel?
Assume no previous lens collection that requires compatibility.
Ken
-Dave
And the fact that China's ever increasing consumption of oil will someday dwarf our use as it becomes an even more developed nation. Now that is a country where hybrid technology should be encouraged - congested cities are where hybrids really shine.
But is that really true? Hybrids work well in stop and go traffic (assuming regenrative braking) but if you're just sitting there stuck in gridlocked traffic, the batteries are eventually going to run down and you'll be left with a plain ole gas engine.
-Frank
Construction of roads and buildings is on an enormous scale. Seems that 50% of the country is employed in the construction trades.
But pollution is choking. We were told that asthma and other respiratory ailments are on the rise. They are still a soft coal burning nation. In '96 I saw steam engines working the yards in Yueyang (Northern Hunan Province).
Steve
1. 5 seater hybrid
2. 8-10 seater diesel
anything other than these is destined for failure. competition is very stiff and people tend to keep cars for atleast 10-15 years. chevy forester in India is going to be big flop. GM is planning on selling them as a premium vehicle for about 32000USD (yes, 32k). Toyota has already flooded market with "qualis" that costs about 22000USD seats 8/9 and runs on diesel. awd is pretty much a non-issue in India and Toyota already offers 4wd on qualis.
my $0.02
I presume that in gridlocked traffic the gas engine will cycle on and off as needed to recharge the batteries as opposed to idling. And I would further presume little need to power electrical accessories as I don't think the first few waves of autos in China will be equipped with AC not CD and DVD players.
What is the body construction of the D70? I believe the D-Rebel is not metal.
With non-SLR fixed lens digitals approaching 10x zoom (Canon Pro-1 and Nikon 8700), is a SLR really necessary? Or does a SLR focus that much faster than a non-SLR?
I've been thinking of getting a high end non-SLR digital since January but thus far, focus lag has kept me from making the buy.
My $0.03.
Jim
I believe both the D70 and DR are made of plastic. Although I have not personally held both, the D70 is supposed to feel a lot sturdier than the DR.
I read a few reviews on the Nikon 8700, but they weren't very positive. Basically, it costs as much as a digital SLR, but the controls are not very quick and easy to use.
I think the AF speed of DSLRs equal that of their film counterparts.
Ken
That's what I suspected about AF being faster on SLRs.
When I first started looking, high end was 5mp and zoom was 6-10x. They're now 8mp with 10x zoom and costing $300 more.
I'm totally reconsidering what I'm looking for in a camera vs what I actually need.
Jim
If you've noticed, it's the consumer-grade cameras that focus on megapixels. Most DSLRs are around 6MP. I believe the megapixel war in consumer cameras hinges on the fact that most consumers are led to believe that more megapixels = better.
To a certain extent, higher resolution is better, but after a certain point (which I think has already been exceeded by 3-4MP cameras), it's more about the quality of the information behind each pixel. That information is dictated by the lens and sensor size and quality.
But being in the flash memory industry, it's nice to see everyone going out and buying more memory to feed their memory-hungry cameras!
Ken
I personally favor the CMOS sensor from Canon, and combined with my existing collection of Canon lenses and flash, decided to purchase a D-Rebel about 6 months ago.
If I were starting from scratch today, with no equipment from either manufacturer, it would be a tough call between the two. I'd probably wait 6 months and see what Canon responds to the D70 with. Canon has led the digital market for years with awesome sensors, class leading in-camera software, and phenomenal glass. The D70 has bested the D-Reb in a few areas, like burst shots and response time, and I doubt Canon is going to sit on their laurels and allow that go unanswered.
Despite being a huge Canon fan, I'd say the D70 has a slight edge right now. The D70 does suffer from moire patterns, and you may need to send your brand new D70 body in for repairs to have back focus and front focus issues resolved, but the rest of the camera is quality. Too bad Nikon lenses are outrageously priced. The body will also run you several hundred more than the D-Reb in real-world market pricing.
Can you wait a little while? The affordable DSLR market is under a revolution, and a short wait may pay off in dividends.
-Ty
Brazil still had a lot of dirt roads when I was still living there (1979-1985), and yes, dual sport bikes are extremely popular, you needed them to get around those potholes!
It's mostly paved now.
In India, I can't see a middle class IT employee driving an 8 passenger quali. The market should exist for Subies. Outback Sport and a basic Forester would make more sense to me.
Most Wanted? What a horrible list. I hate half those cars.
Bob: why not? Look what Honda did. They established their rep on bikes, early on.
-juice
Feature-wise, the D70 does seem to have the edge, but both are more similar than they are different. I think what it's going to come down to for me is the feel and responsiveness of the camera in one's hands. I think the D70 has the edge here with it's choice of polycarbonate texture and nearly instantaneous on/off speed.
I've read that the back focus seemed to be more of a early serial number issue. Also I've read that the moire is a result of Nikon tweaking their sensor towards detail.
What is the advantage of a CMOS sensor vs. CCD, BTW?
Ken
Bob
Craig
-mike
CMOS sensors are very different from CCDs. They have larger platforms with pixels spread throughout, and light focused to each sensor. An amplifier exists for every pixel, which moves data faster off the chip and into memory. CCDs use one amplifier that waits for the last pixel to contain data before moving the information.
CMOS sensors are more battery efficient, drawing much less power than any CCD out there (about 20% as much as a CCD). I can shoot most of the day on a single charge with my single rechargeable Canon battery; I have to carry at least 6 AA rechargeables to accomplish the same in my much smaller CCD Minolta.
CMOS sensors are also inherently less prone to noise. That's the major reason why the Canon DSLRs have usable ISO between 100 and 1600. Most CCD-based cameras start developing SERIOUS noise issues betwen ISO 400 and ISO 800, which restricts your low-light and fast-action shooting ability.
Nikon has done an excellent job with the CCD in the D70, though. ISO is still usable through 800 and the in-camera chips are VERY fast. Detail is awesome. It's amazing how good of a camera they've produced given the chip limitations. Hopefully a firmware fix will resolve the moire issue.
I have a good friend is a pro photographer, and he just picked up the D70 since he has an extensive Nikon lens collection. He loves it. He was fairly anti-digital; but the D70 has totally converted him.
-Ty
Got that mag also. One copy at home, one at work...
-juice
-mike
By Christopher Helman, Forbes
Prices simmer near record levels, and demand has never been so high nor supplies so tight. But Valero Energy, which supplies 10% of the nation's gas, is feeling no pain.
Nothing seems to put the brakes on gasoline prices. Not promises by the Saudis to spur production. Not the approaching handover of power in Iraq, where the fear of sabotage and terrorism is adding $6 to $8 a barrel to the price of crude, says William Veno, a research director at Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Americans want their gasoline and are willing to pay for it, up to a point. That puts some stress on the system, as well as on pocketbooks. Demand, at an all-time high of 9.1 million barrels a day, is outstripping the capacity of U.S. refineries.
All of which is great news to foreign refiners, which are supplying an unprecedented 10% of our gasoline -- and to domestic guys, as well. In the first quarter, downstream (refining and marketing) profits climbed 39% at ExxonMobil and 19% at ConocoPhillips. Valero Energy topped them all with a 46% gain to $250 million.
As U.S. capacity tightens, refiners have gained control over the marketplace. Foreigners can export gasoline, but domestics are much closer to their markets and can respond quickly to shifting demand for the increasingly complicated fuel blends required by various states. A year ago, Valero's net margin was 1.75%. This year it's 2.25%.
-Frank
I believe Exxon-Mobil's 1Q04 NIAT was handily more than Valero's, something on the order of $400-425MM iirc.
we didn't do too bad, either.
what were you wanting to discuss specifically, though?
~c
-Frank
I think the oil companies operate on % margins of sales, so if prices are high so are profits. That's not surprising. In a way their risks are also higher, given the COGS is up.
-juice
PS Cost of Goods sold, sorry for the accounting term
-juice
1. The profit at the gas pump and at the refinery are best thought of as two separate animals. Sometimes refiners do own retail gas stations, but their profitability isn't linked to refining spread. Usually gas station profitability has a lot more to do with retail competition. Profit at the refineries has a world to do with the price of crude because there is a HUGE fixed cost to operating a refinery, just like running a factory. The variable cost is crude. When it's high, that cost actually buoys profitability because it greatly increases the margin on gasoline. This tends to have a reverse effect on chemicals and plastics, btw, because they cannot as readily pass the cost on by increasing the price of their output goods..
2. No one cares when crude is cheap and refining margins suck. But pull out your WSJ and look at the longterm timeline for crude... hmm, it does bounce around a lot. Big oil sure didn't have much sympathy in 1998!
3. Prices have yet to meaningfully impact consumption. It has meaningfully affected how much people are thinking about it and talking about it, no doubt! I'm all for discussion, but pull out your checkbook/quicken/onlinebanking and a calculator... how much is this really costing you? 20,000 miles per year, 20 MPG, and say you think you're paying $0.50 per gallon too much. That's $42 a month. It's not chicken feed... that's a night out to dinner with tip for most families at a sit-down restaurant. But when you drive, insure, maintain and register a new $20,000-25,000 vehicle this is a pretty small piece of the overall pie.
4. Want to do something useful? Protests and delaying purchases of gas without cutting your consumption aren't the way no matter how many chain emails you get.
~Colin
There are about 3 of us out there...10 billion SUV owners.
;-)
-juice
-mike
I'm going from a car with EPA readings of 37/44 (1997 Honda Civic HX Coupe) to one with 19/25. That doesn't even factor in the fact that the Civic will run on 87 while the GT is sucking down the 92.
Maybe I should buy some oil company stock? ;-)
Good thing we're not living paycheck to paycheck. I wouldn't have been nearly so hasty to make a change if that were the case.
Cheers!
-Ian
Steve
Colin: any news for us?
Ed heard something about a change in your fleet on Nabisco.
-juice
Mentioned it in one tiny thread... OK, I'll try to put together something, probably a multi-part epic, describing my fall from the fence.
Steve, thanks. I hope people got some value out of that-- I didn't spend a lot of time on it but I did want to share a little and if people have questions I can't guarantee an answer but I'd give it a shot.
~Colin
I was relating this to a co-worker and they were sceptical that there were so many different formulations.
Thanks!
Ron
truthfully in the pipeline there are only 15-20 blends depending on the season if you EXCLUDE octane.
if you include octane and additives put in at the fuel terminals, the retail pumps do indeed see over 100 varieties.
the american petroleum producers institute has this gasoline FAQ website-- it's quite good:
http://www.gasolineandyou.org/
~c
You're good about keeping your Nabisco profile current. :-D
Ken
~c
As I have been seeing these in stores and in a number of back yards, I thought it might make an interesting experiment. If we enjoy it and learn to take care of it (doesn't become a mosquito swamp), then maybe a real pool next year.
Bought the 16'x42" from Wally World. Came with everything but chemicals. I needed 2 yards of fill to level a large enough spot in the backyard, and finished filling it last night (3900 gallons). Got the basic water tested this morning, and started the chemical regiment at lunch. More after the first swim (maybe this weekend, if the water warms up enough).
Steve
SAN JOSE, Calif., Jun 18, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- On Monday, a Santa Clara
County Superior Court judge awarded $75,000 in attorney's fees to Subaru of
America, Inc. under California's Consumer Legal Remedies Act. In awarding the
attorney's fees the court found the evidence was overwhelming the plaintiff had
attempted to defraud Subaru in bringing the action, and plaintiff's attorneys
had an obligation to and should have determined that either when they filed the
suit or during investigation and discovery.
"The case involving an allegation of a defective transmission in a 2002 Subaru Impreza WRX was brought under the Song-Beverly Consumer Warranty Act and the CLRA. The court further found that because of their conduct in litigating the case, the plaintiff's attorneys had caused Subaru of America, Inc. to incur unnecessary attorney's fees of at least double the amount defense of the breach of warranty case should have cost. The court's award of the $75,000 represented the amount over what the court estimated were reasonable attorney's fees for defending the case."
-Talk about strange things.
Mark
~c