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Comments
AH! They've dropped their business plan to Honda's level. :-(
The annual forecast is given to suppliers at least 15 months in advance due to the long lead times often needed on certain parts and subassemblies. The total production forecast is revised then put into place for everyone to go by. If the forecast is for 100,000 units which marketing has said is the sustainable demand then each month is assigned a production quantity then it's 'inflated' or 'deflated' for seasonal variations. With a 100,000 unit goal the average should be about 8500 units monthly or 25,000 per quarter.
But 1st qtr has only one good selling month, March, so that forecast is adjusted to say 20,000 units. 2nd and 3rd Qtrs are the peak ones so these are forecasted to generate 30,000 units quarterly. 4th Qtr is again a slow one so it's allocated only 20,000 units of sales.
As opposed to GM, see ongoing discussion on the UAW thread, which has to continue production whether or not people are buying Toyota tries to exactly match production/shipping/sales to eliminate oversupply. In this they do a worldclass job as everyone in the automotive and basic industries knows. In my former company we benchmarked Toyota to learn how the best think since we were a prime auto supplier and also to improve our own methods. It's very difficult.
In summary it's not a false shortage it's balancing supply with demand in order to maintain pricing and to avoid inventory overhang which is horrendously costly when each unit is worth about $20000.
I just took my HH in for its 5,000 mile oil change/tire rotation, and asked them to check the "ISC Learn" profile, just to be sure. The service tech first told me that there was no such bulletin by Toyota, and that I shouldn't believe everything I read on the internet (this ticked me off). But I persisted that there was such a document, so he searched around and eventually found it on his computer system, but said, "Well, we ran the computer checks and everything is fine." I don't know if ISC is part of the normal computer check profile, but I suspect it is not.
So then he gives me a whole song and dance about the type of gas to use and winter mileage in general, don't believe the EPA mileage estimates, blah, blah, blah and basically treated me like a dumb girl who knows nothing about cars. Can't say I could repair 'em myself, but I AM an informed consumer. The service center won't be getting a favorable review from me, given the tech's attitude. My advice is to push the repair guys to answer the questions you have, and don't take no for an answer - I would have pursued it with the service manager if the tech hadn't finally come up with the "ISC Learn" document. But I am still not happy with his attitude.
I am happy to report that the weather has warmed up, my car pops into electric mode nicely now, and my last tank of gas averaged to 24. I finally think I will be able to see what my HH is capable of. I can hardly wait!
Kick some butt and take names and don't let'em see ya sweat.
It works wonders.
HH sales in March rose to 2987 units from 2600+ units in February. But it accounted for only 26% of all Highlander sales versus 29% for February. This is straight from Toyota press release.
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/new-cars/high-cost-of-hybrid-vehicles-40- 6/hybrids-vs-all-gas.htm
I do not know if anyone, including CR, really knows how the hybrid will depreciate. The batteries have been a focus and it is unclear if they are worth so much angst. The Prius have been out for many years, so far, there has been no complaints on file of malfunctioning batteries.
You likely have to look at whatever data you can find and make a choice.
Good luck
My calcs bring the financing costs on the hybrid to $3,512 vs $2,879 for the ICE...(22% of $2879=$633) not the $5,532 CR claims. Meaning the added financing cost of the hybrid is only $633, not $2,653. The total "added cost" for the Hybrid, if you agree with their other assumtions, would then only be $5,688, not $7,700, with no tax credit, and $3,488 if you get the tax credit..
Please let me know if I am off base here.
1) reatil cost of the HH over H is 23%, yet the finance charge is 92% higher. if apples to apples, then difference in finance charges is about 650- SUBTRACT $2000 from the "total cost"
2)they estimate gas costing $2.58 over the next 5 years. even if you stick with their mpg ratings, and use a $300,3.50,4.00 ave gas cost, then the ADDITIONAL savings are $223,492,771 respectively.
3)*contraversial* if you don't use the CR mileage ratings and say the mileage is 25 vs 20 mpg for HH vs H, then using $3.00, 3.50, 4.00/gal, the additional savings are $858, 1233, 1608 respectively (we're all smart enough to do our own math for what we think gas will cost and what we expect our mileage will be)
4) depreciation- I don't understand why the HH would deprecieate faster, but if you assume same depreciation rate of 55%, then subtract another $1595 to the total cost.
so in total, I'd say you have to knock of between $3800 to 5200 off the $7708 pre-credit figure
*HH purchase price: $39,835
*Assume that a 10% down payment is made leaving $35,857 to finance
*Assume a 5 year loan at 6.0%; gives monthly payments of $693.10 x 60mo's = $41,586
*Loan cost: $41,586 - 39,835 = $5,735
*HL purchase price: $32,650 (and using the above process)
*Loan cost: $34,085 - 29,385 = $4,700
*Finance difference: $5,735 - 4,700 = $1,035
Note here that up until 4/3/06 Toyota was offering 1.9% 3-year financing in the Chicago delivery area (3.9% 3-year in the Cincinnati area), so my 6% might be high.
The only justification for a higher depreciation rate for the HH over the HL would be the batteries. As said before, no one is sure of how long they will last but I have read that the industry expects it to be about 100,000 miles. Regardless, after 75,000 miles any buyer should be considering that possible battery cost somewhere out there in the maybe not so distant future.
It's been said many times in this forum that if you are buying an HH only to save money (over it's HL counter part?) then you are making a poor economical choice.
This is grossly inaccurate. There is no industry opinion on the matter since the vehicles are new. The Warranty outside of the CARB states is 100,000 miles but in the CARB states its's 150,000 miles.
Finally on Toyota's website under hybrids they state that the batteries should last '...the life of the vehicle' which as any longterm Toyota owner knows is 250,000 miles or so. In addition in the literature Toyota has just put out they state that in their bench testing they ran batteries out to 175,000 miles with no deterioration of the batteries in any way.
The battery question is a 'world is flat' worry - if you sail too far you will fall off. Check Toyota's website and Toyotageorgetown.com ( the KY plant's website ).
Now your last statement is correct. One should never buy a hybrid to 'save money' on the vehicle purchase. Yes, to save fuel, resources, improve air quality but not to justify reducing the cost of buying the vehicle.
I agree 100%. but there's a difference in saying "buying a hybrid will save you lots of money" and "buying a hybrid will cost you a lot of money." nobody should be fooled into thinking you'll have all this money in the bank if you buy hybrid. but at the same time, if you present this financial hurdle of $7 grand, it will disuade people from buying.
anyway your loan calculations proved my point-- your HH finance charge is still 22% higher compared to the H finance charge (not the 92% shown in CR)
STANADARD WARRANTY covers the battery!!
The HH warranty covers the battery pack for at least 100,000 miles nationwide and in CA, it is covered for 150,000 miles (true?). This warranty covers every part of the HSD system.
While the battery concern is real and worthwhile, this whole battery thing is moot for the life of the car for 2 reasons:
1. For the first 100K miles, it is covered. No out-of-pocket expense.
2. For the next 100K miles, it is normal ownership cost IF and WHEN the battery fails.
My #2 point is that ALL CARS BREAK at some point in their lives, even Toyotas. Brakes, hoses, seals, joints, steering racks, tires, shocks, stereos, on and on. The battery pack is no different. Prospective owners need to look at the warranty and figure that into the purchase decision.
Here is an article that states the same as your info.
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/11812910/#storyContinued
I haven't purchased my HH yet (just waiting for financing to come together) but the battery life was weighing heavily on my mind. That weight has now been lifted.
I find this forum to be invaluable!!!!
Check Green Car Congress for total Hybrids sold thus far. They get their data from manufacturer news releases.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/sales/index.html
When you get to the page, March sales data shows up first, scroll down and look hard, you should find February and January as well, buried in the long list. You can use the numbers in the report to determine if there are any more left.
It is unclear if IRS has issued a certified listing of vehicles. The following is an unofficial list of vehicles *IF* IRS certifies them.
http://www.hybridcars.com/tax-deductions-credits.html
also according to that site, it appears HH sales are steadily going up. Good news for HH fans. Bad news for bargain hunters. :P
So what is the story on the dinged up HH Otis 1?
I think Toyota and the dealers are more agressive now in pricing since the HH began to slow down in the Fall. Sales have jumped since then.
http://go.ucsusa.org/hybridcenter/compare_chart.cfm
I did a comparison with the HH and noticed they classified the HH as "Full/Muscle"
Was at Apple Computer recently to visit and saw 4 HH in the parking area, 1 on the way out. Counted at least 8 Prius and that was just down 2 parking lanes. The HH's are beginning to show up where we live, have seen 2 with brand new dealer plates. Sales is indeed going up.
Local gas price now is $3.09 premium, 2.91 mid-grade. Ouch!
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4AFA8DAE%2D16A0%2D4783%- 2D826E%2D34194799B8AD%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo
Since we probably won't know about resale value of our vehicles for a bit, I'm curious about the Prius and its resale value as the hybrid that's been around the longest. Does anyone know? I seem to recall that initially they didn't get rave reviews but CR seemed to warm up as Toyota improved the vehicle.
I do agree that Toyotas do seem to last forever. We have a '93 Toyota pickup truck that is just wonderful and I sold a '90 Celica in 2001 to a friend and he says its still running just fine.
mmreid
We have traded in a decent number of recent model Gen2 Prius' as people have stepped up to the new '06 models. These buyers got IMO ridiculously high tradein values ( e.g. 2004 w/ 58K miles @ $19000 on what was originally a $26300 purchase ) .. But the vehicle sat for 4 months on our lot and no one looked at it. Suddenly poof it was gone. 3 others we couldn't sell so we sent them to auction and they were snapped up immediately!! Go figure.
As best I can tell Prius' are depreciating about the same as Camry's; i.e.
20% yr 1
10% yr 2-5
5% yr 6-10
the dealer was taking a little over $5g off sticker for the hail damaged car so I passed. We plan on taking a trip to the in-laws this summer in chicago, so I'd rather spend $1000 more and get a non-dinged car in nearby kenosha.
The rear most area-where the 3 rd seat is hidden- looked pretty high.When the second row is folded will it be flat relative to the area behind it?I know it won't be horizontal,it will tilt upward 5-10 degrees because of the thickness of the seatback,but will there be a big bump or step up-step down between it and the area behind it?
I have been gone from here for a while-Katrina-busy-short of $$-but I finally have the $$ for a HH.The local dealers-New Orleans metro-still won't deal on any of the Hybrids,but they are the absolute worst anyway with Gulf States adding all those "port and dealer" options-all junk and air(pinstripes,protection pks,spoilers etc).It looks like the pricing has become more favorable,even with the run up in gas prices.The general public has decided that the fuel savings-and improved performance- on the HH isn't worth the extra $2500(or less) over an equivalent V-6 Highlander.It is a 5mpg better vehicle(20 vs 25mpg)so it will use about 4000 gallons in 100,000 miles-the V-6 will use about 5000 gallons.At 100,000 miles it will use about $2800 less gasoline at $2.80 a gallon.Ignoring insurance and the extra money you could make on the $2500 difference-also ignoring the $3.50/gal gasoline we will have this summer(or worse if we get another Katrina,or when we pull out of Iraq);they-the HHs-should be selling better than they are.The initial poison pen articles really killed the HH-great for late buyers.You can buy a AWD base model for $31500+TTL=~$34500 with our taxes-minus the $2400 credit~$32100 out of pocket-roughly $2000 more than Camry Hybrid will cost net-and about $5000 more than a loaded Prius -net(they are TTL about $30,000+).
Well-how flat does the back become with both rows folded?Thanks.Charlie
Wow,it was crazy to give $19000 for a used one-you guys have to sell a $19000 used Prius for maybe $21500 to make it worthwhile!
The rising gas prices have created a bit of a Prius frenzy again;folks are once again ignoring the math.Paying(after the credit but with TTL) $26000 or more for a tiny,not very comfortable,relatively uncrashworthy car just doesn't make sense-especially with all the SUV's,and 3/4 ton trucks that populate south La now.Heck,very soon the 2007 LE Camry-with a power driver seat and side side curtain airbags standard-will be buyable for $21,000 total.The $5000 difference puts the breakeven between the 2 at about 100,000 miles-trade in time.All that time you have driven in a bigger,faster,safer more comfortable vehicle that has a lot more evacuation potential-2 adults+ 2 big greyhounds can fit in a Camry(with the backseat"hole" built up to make a ~36"x60" flat space for the dogs.
The Prius is a great vehicle,but I expect plenty of folks to try to trade up to a Camry Hybrid.It is a much better "American road trip" do it all vehicle.
Thanks.Charlie
I wouldn't be surprised if when the new Highlander debuts in the Fall that the HH version will be like the Camry here linked to the 2.4L with less power than the ICE but much better FE.
3.5L ICE at ~268 hp and FE in the mid 20's
or
2.4L HH at say 190 hp and FE in the low 30's
but little or no price difference with both starting around $29000-30000.
There would be only a small tax benefit depending on when it's debutted.
JMHO but it makes sense to me if Toyota wants to increase the sales of hybrids.
The TCH should be a big hit.. but it's the same price @$26500 as the Prius so it's 6 or 1/2 dozen of another for the buyers. Each appeals to a specific segment. The Camry buyers I think have been waiting patiently in the wings while the odd-ball Prius people ( me ) have been getting the benefit of the HSD. I love the Camry and if my situation was different I prolly would have gone for the TCH over the Prius but I got a good deal and the FE is about 35% better than the TCH will likely be. I'll hit 100,000 mi in 3 yrs. or less.
Third row folds flat with trunk. Second row slants up a few degrees when folded. Transition from folded 3-rd row to folded 2nd-row is fairly smooth, no large bump or "step-up".
jdkahler-so the HH is a good "bringing the dogs on a long roadtrip" vehicle.It would be replacing a Pilot-a great roadtrip vehicle(22-24 mpg hy),but a 13 mpg city vehicle because of the way my son and wife drive it.A big dog bed sounds about right for them.
cdptrap-more or less flat with a slight upward tilt-that will work-just like the Pilot.I have cut a length of plywood to fill the space between the almost flat second row and the back of the front seat.I prop it on the headrests of the pilot and put very stiff foam over it.It won't support much wt,but it doesn't have to-just keeps the mutts from stepping thru if we have to brake hard.
kdhspyder-the TCH will be a big hit-especially if the actual selling price for a base model(not stripped at all-well above LE equipment)stays around $25000-$26000.If Toyota runs to form the early models will be loaded ones with stickers in the>$30,000 range.If they dip too deeply into the $30's,they will be invading Lexus territory.Our dist-Gulf States Toyota -is the worst distributer Toyota has(from a buyer's standpoint).They force their dealers to accept cars with loads of dist. added options-crummy spoilers,pinstrips,protection pks,extra mile pks.Of course the dealers don't pay much for these options,but some dealers would rather just get the car without them and pay Gulf States less.
My last 3 vehicles have been bought out of Louisiana.
Thanks all.Charlie
Second question. What does the initials "M.A.F" stand for on a Toyota invoice and how does it affect the price the customer pays?
A third but unrelated question. When I bought a 2001 avalon for my wife, the closing instructions included the recomendation that I have the oil changed each 3,000 miles even though the Avalon car manual recommended every 5,000. I asked the sales guy what information did he have that 3,000 miles should be the recommended interval and had he shared his finding with Toyota. His only response was that the oil will last for 5,000 miles but it gets pretty dirty by that time. So guess what, my wife does have her oil changed at the Toyota dealer every 3,000 miles! I'm wondering why Toyota would allow a dealer to recommend an interval shorter than Toyota itself?
Thanks for your help.
Brief summary - and I am not a GM or owner so take it for what it's worth. The owner does actually pay the regional office ( whether Toyota or SET or GST ) the full amount of the invoice including the TDA - or in SET the Admin Fee. This fee goes to the regional office to pay it's bills and to cover the cost of regional advertising done by that office. This advertising is not the daily radio and newpaper ads that you see all the time those are paid by the dealer out of operating profits and run into HUGE numbers.
The TDA Fee is one the dealers have no choice but to pay Toyota. The reason it's broken out separately at Edmunds and other sites is because it's a percentage of the invoice so it varies from $14000 Corolla's to $46000 Sequoia's. It also varies by region; e.g. in SET it's a fixed fee.
Holdback is just that. The dealer pays Toyota up front the entire invoice amount and Toyota 'holds back' a percentage which which is paid then to the dealer at a later date. It'sis how the owner/dealer pays his mortgage, etc.
The financial reserve is the same as in all manufacturing companies where the product has to be shipped, prepped, etc. In the steel industry we normally considered that from the producing mill to the customer directly it took about 43 days. Those 43 days have a cost of money attached. The same with autos. Toyota's production costs end at the factory door. After that it's the Sales Dept of Toyota which has to 'finance' the shipment from whereever to the dealer's door. There is a dollar cost of time that has to be assessed. The dealer has no benefit from this, it's Toyota's money. It covers the financial cost from the factory to the dealer's lot.
M.A.F. doesn't ring a bell, I'll check into it.
The salesman's comments on changing the oil are wrong. It was his personal opinion. 6 months or 5000 miles is the standard service interval. Now if you drive on very very dusty roads you might want to do it sooner.
I got the initials "M.A.F" from a supposedly actual invoice posted on the internet of a 2003 Sienna. The M.A.F showed a cost of $361 while the "2% Holdback MSRP" showed $560, as a comparison. At the bottom of the invoice was the comment, "...MAF and/or holdback included in Prices."
My wife's driving is all city. Appreciate you comment on oil change interval. I figured that Toyota wouldn't recommend 5,000 miles without statistical data, after all they are the ones warranting the vehicle! (But on the other hand, any car will last at least 36,000 miles without an oil change at all if an owner is stupid enough to do it.)
** I knew this guy once when I was in the Navy that had the theory that since he was going to buy a new car every two or three years he was NEVER going to change the oil. He said to do so was changing it for the next guy who would own the car and he, the Navy guy, wasn't going to spend his money for the next owners benefit. Seems to me almost bordering on unethical!
To most it looks equal but I can tell it's smokier and the factory is more bronzed. I'm not going to redo it. But I'd advise another tint (though 20% seems right).
But I'd definately do it because it much better like this.
Must be summer gas or may be it is the warming weather, most recent tank shot up to 26-mpg without effort. Looking forward to 27, 28, 29 and hopefully 30 in the coming months.
Cheers all!
We're getting warmer here, too. And the MPG is doing MUCH better. In fact I realize that many of us got these in the summer last year and then while they were breaking in and we were getting used to driving them, Fall came. I bet the really good numbers will happen for all of us this summer.
I started yesterday and the engine ran for a second and stoppped. I thought it had stalled. But it was warm enough just to go to battery with no engine warming.
BUT, it is just so much more expensive than the Subaru line (10K) and the mpg isn't as great as I'd like it to be (I know I need to suck it up, I can't expect the benefit of the SUV (see above) and a car hybrid (like a Prius) and the maintenance cost and reliability record are main concerns. In 8 years all I replaced on the Subie was a radiator and tires - all the rest was standard wear and tear maintenance - can I really expect the same from the HH??
Also, I've looked everywhere and have yet to see any posting or information on how well the HH does off-road. The dealer brochure explicitly states that the HH is NOT designed for off-road at all. I know this is just protection from lawsuits, but it is a concern for me since I do take it off-road (moderately) and I don't want to screw up a 30K plus investment!
One of the salespeople told me that the brochure says that because the electric motor that drives the rear wheels is not a true AWD/4x4 set-up and that I should be fine on the roads I described above. Any opinions from anyone else?
I am still undecided on whether to go with the HH or the Subie - the only minus on the Subie is the following: the Outback is sluggish on pick-up (worse than my 98!), trusted mechanic says all Subies go bunk in the engine due to the horizontal pistons and they burn oil after 60k like nobody's business (mine did) - and there's no guarantee that it won't happen before the 100k mile mark (I was lucky mine made it as long as it did). BTW, the Forester is an interesting alternative but the seats in it are so unbelievably hard and uncomfortable. Plus Foresters apparently are in high demand because of the CR rating.
So, waht do I do??!!
Thanks for any help!
K
Believe the brochure. No deep mud or sand, as it will burn up the electric drive motor. Get the non-hybrid Hihglander and put the $7000 premium in your gas tank. That engine will last a lot longer than the Subaru engine.
If the "rough" surface is maintained dirt road, you will have no trouble.
We drive our HH on dirt road on our ranch all the time, no problems at all. This is all dirt road, parts of it is maintained and made up of packed baserock with loose gravel and parts of it are not well maintained with dirt, mud with pot holes and 6" to 8" deep ruts.
We drive slow and careful on the poorly maintained portion and just a hair faster on the baserock portion, no problems.
The term "Off-Road" is ill-defined and generalizing something ill-defined to mean the HH cannot be taken "Off-Road" is plain useless and wrong.
Let us divide road surfaces into 4 types and define each one:
1. Paved - flat solid surface. HH can handle this.
2. Maintained dirt road - Regularly bulldozed, watered, pressed flat. May have loose gravel and may have stoney or rocky surface. A few shallow ruts, pot holes. HH can handle this.
3. Unmaintained dirt road - this may be a dirt road that is bulldozed and pressed flat only once a year and then left to the elements. Rain, snow, usage will cut ruts (6-8" deep, 1-ft wide) and holes into it, with loose rocks, mud pots and so on. But it still is at least 6 to 8-ft wide and readily recognizable as a road. Has sufficient shoulders and height to bypass deeper ruts and holes. HH can most likely handle this, just be careful and exercise common sense.
4. Trails - This is real-life, low-range, limited-slip, good-articulation, high clearance true 4x4 country. At best, you can see there is a road but it slants steeply or have deep ruts for the tires and a high center and little room on both sides. Ruts can be up to 2-ft deep. At worst, there is nothing to see, you have to read a map, locate ducks on the side marking the trails, or get out of the car to cut off tree limbs and stack rocks to get you through. On open terrain, there is loose rocks and sand on a steep downslope. HH is big time way out of its league in such terrain.
The HH will easily and safely handle #1 and #2. The HH will easily handle #3 with care and common sense. The HH CANNOT and is NOT designed to handle #4.
If the 1.5 mile road in front of you qualifies as a #4, then the HH is a bad choice.
Our HH is caked with mud and dirt and junk each time I get to the gas station for a fill up and a wash. Compare to the numerous spotless shinny HUMMERS, Tahoe, Suburban, Navigator, Mountaineer, RAV4, 4Runner, Explorer, X5, X3, M350, M500, MDX, etc at the same station, we probably drive more miles "Off Road" than all of them combined.