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The Future of Driving
The automotive world is undergoing an era of profound change that will affect not only how we use pour automobiles
but our whole way of life our economy and culture.
Twenty or so years from now you probably won't even own a car but you'll belong to a service that provides one for you on demand. Pushing a button on your Smart Connector will summon a robot car from a nearby location. You'll be able to select a van, pickup, sedan or even convertible depending on your needs for the day. It'll announce its
arrival with a chime, you'll get in, tell it where to go and it'll take you there.
How totally convenient is that? There'll be no gas bills because the cars are all-electric and no insurance bill because the cars will be almost foolproof (insurers are already concerned - see link at end of post).
It sounds pretty easy....and boring! Hopefully it will still be legal for us old gearheads to enjoy driving cars ourselves
and we could be doing it on highways that are practically empty(insurers estimate a traffic decline of 60%)
What do you think?
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/automobiles/insurers-brace-for-the-self-driving-future-and-fewer-accidents.html?hpw&rref=automobiles&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region®ion=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well
but our whole way of life our economy and culture.
Twenty or so years from now you probably won't even own a car but you'll belong to a service that provides one for you on demand. Pushing a button on your Smart Connector will summon a robot car from a nearby location. You'll be able to select a van, pickup, sedan or even convertible depending on your needs for the day. It'll announce its
arrival with a chime, you'll get in, tell it where to go and it'll take you there.
How totally convenient is that? There'll be no gas bills because the cars are all-electric and no insurance bill because the cars will be almost foolproof (insurers are already concerned - see link at end of post).
It sounds pretty easy....and boring! Hopefully it will still be legal for us old gearheads to enjoy driving cars ourselves
and we could be doing it on highways that are practically empty(insurers estimate a traffic decline of 60%)
What do you think?
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/automobiles/insurers-brace-for-the-self-driving-future-and-fewer-accidents.html?hpw&rref=automobiles&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region®ion=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
0
Comments
Just think, a whole garage to stash junk in (well, nothing new there for most folks). Less need for asphalt downtown, more green space, more walking and biking (got a weird commute? Take the autonomous car to the bike lane and then get on your bike).
Need to drive across the Plains and you get bored watching the weather patterns in the big empty? Put the car on autopilot and nap while the car eats up the miles overnight.
Really hope the trucking industry is an early adopter. Be nice to see trucks obeying the speed limits and staying mostly in the right lanes. And not playing the elephant race and backing up traffic a mile behind them.
Steve.. that's an airplane
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That brings back memories of playing on the computer late into the evening in my early 40s up North and then heading over to the Village Inn for a 2 am breakfast to get a bit dewired. There was always a nerd or three there at that hour. Insulted one guy one morning by asking him if his BBS handle referred to Bilbo of Mississippi of KKK fame. I never got into the Rings and didn't make the Baggins connection.
That was pre wifi days so the night owls actually wound up talking to each other. Several times I gave Bilbo a ride home - no autonomous cars he could call for a ride back then (he probably couldn't have afforded it anyway).
https://newrepublic.com/article/127567/happens-drivers-driverless-future
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
It can all sound a bit breathless, like it’s just around the corner. Many automakers have coalesced around 2020 as the year when fully self-driving vehicles will be available to the public. Some analysts think that’s too optimistic, that it will take 10 years or more – and even then, the cars might be restricted to taxi fleets."
What it feels like to drive a Tesla on autopilot (washingtonpost.com)
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
http://jalopnik.com/how-a-tesla-with-autopilot-forced-us-to-take-the-road-t-1752024377
The problems that still need to be solved are staggering. It's going to be harder than autonomous rail or autonomous aviation because it is conducted within a much less controlled environment. The day for the autonomous auto might only be possible when all cars and all people are literally interconnected.
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
At least my pinball app on the iPad works offline.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
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2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
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At first I thought that was a good argument and I personally wonder about that since so far
coders have not been able to design a robot that can even answer the phone as well as a human child can. There's a big OTOH though--robot driven cars are already on the roads, I've seen them in Tempe, Arizona.
Traffic engineers will tell you that the dynamics of traffic movement are less chaotic than it appears and I think they are correct. I used to commute from Southern NH to Boston and after a while you realize that there are times and places where it's faster to keep left and others where you're better off in the middle or right lanes.
I've also noticed that if you see a stack of cars, say five or more taking the exit you need you're better off merging further up the stack rather than pulling behind the last car. The amazing thing is that in any line of five or more cars there's always one who will leave a gap you can safely merge into.
I know this pisses some people off but the engineers tell us that by exiting a crowded highway efficiently you are actually helping traffic flow better.
It's going to take a high degree of AI to teach a robot about all the vicissitudes of traffic but maybe it can be done.
2001 BMW 330ci/E46, 2008 BMW 335i conv/E93
Then there are the questions of what happens in a disaster? What happens to all these autonomous cars during a flood or an electrical blackout? Wouldn't it be nice to have a gasoline powered 4x4 in that situation?
And let's take the consequences a little further. Even if it becomes true that autonomous cars will decrease accidents, what happens to all those Uber drivers and taxi drivers? There are hundreds of thousands of them out of work.
Let's say we do get to level 5 in autonomy, that is, cars without steering wheels and brake pedals. Will people really spend time on their laptops while hurtling down the highway at 75 miles per hour? Or, will they be so anxious that they'll be staring at the road no matter what?
Phooey. They're for some other...species...Doh! I mean some other person. I'd rather go get some choice dental work done, with half the numbing agent that would required.
2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
https://jalopnik.com/americans-are-super-scared-about-driverless-cars-gettin-1819136046
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2021 Kia Soul LX 6-speed stick
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Me, I LIKE to drive and think everyone should be able to DRIVE THEIR CAR. There's a commercial running right now (brand irrelevant) for a car that will brake for you...(jogger appears) AND steer for you (jogger winds up to the right of the car as the car steers around the jogger)
Observation... I guess the car stopping itself didn't work so it had to steer to avoid???