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Help me figure it out - Odyssey vs. Pilot / Odyssey

zootsuit1zootsuit1 Member Posts: 11
edited July 2016 in Honda
Hi all,
Shopping for a family car, 2 kids currently in car seats with a 3rd to add in the next few weeks. We were suggested to try and lease and then buy the car 3 years down the line in order to spread out the cost and keep monthly payments low (fixed income here).

Problem is we know the Odyssey is probably a better car for a family with 5+ year olds, but we think the new 2016 would be great to have for our kids for the next 3 years. So the question is, how much more would it cost to lease a Pilot for 3 years and then switch to an Odyssey in three years vs. just having and Odyssey for the entire time (leasing with buying out after three years). We need some help figuring the complex math on this one though.

My cost estimates go like this:

Option 1 - Odyssey for 9 years
Target Price 2016 Odyssey EX - $28,000 (inc. destination)
MSRP - $32,700
36 Mo Residual @12k (55%) - $17,985
MF- .00036
Tax 9.8%

PreTax / PostTax (WA) Monthly Payments - $278 / $305.47
Cost for Years 0-3 = $10,980
Cost for Years 4-9 = $17,985/ 19,747 (with huge assumption there are no major maintenance issues for simplicity [ if you can estimate cost feel free to add that in])
Total 9 year cost = $30,727

Option 2 - Pilot lease for 3 years, Odyssey for 6 years
Advantages - 3 years of Pilot (which my wife wants) + minivan later is newer 0 years old at 36 months vs 3 years old at 36 months as in option 1.
Disadvantages - have to go through buying process twice...subjects you to dealer crap fees twice

Target Price 2016 Pilot LX AWD- $29,500 (inc. destination)
MSRP - $31,945
36 Mo Residual @12k (62%)- $19,805
MF- .00165
Tax 9.8%

PreTax / PostTax (WA) Monthly Payments - $270 / $295
Cost for Years 0-3 (Pilot) = $10,620
Cost for Years 4-9 (Odyssey)= Here's where I get lost.
How do I compare? Cost of buying Odyssey 28,000*1.098 - equity at 6 years (11,300?)
$19,220
Total 9 year cost = $29,840

What else am I missing here? Really appreciate the help of all you smart members out there

Comments

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    steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited July 2016
    I'm not that great with these kinds of math comparisons - try playing with the True Cost to Own tool for a 5 year comparison. A quick glance indicates that the Odyssey will be cheaper.

    Since the next generation 2017 Odyssey is due out "soon" there may be some good deals on the 2016s (in spite of a recent $150 price increase).

    I'm not great with kid problems either, but I think sliding doors would be handier for kids in car seats.

    The "Happy Wife" intangible is worth a lot though. B)
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    kyfdxkyfdx Moderator Posts: 239,304
    To simplify, there is no way you'll get two new cars and have it be cheaper over the next 7 years.

    Best bet for the next 7 years, buy the car you really need (looks like the Odyssey to me), and then drive the crap out of it.

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    texasestexases Member Posts: 10,735
    Cost looks to be a wash, I'd go with the Ody (avoid 2 purchases), but if wife REALLY wants a Pilot, that's your answer.
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    Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    1. Make all calculations carefully
    2. Double-check your results using an NSA supercomputer
    3. Create an effective powerpoint presentation with charts, graphs and bullet points carefully comparing various scenarios.
    4. Ask wife what she wants.
    5. Buy that.

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    berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    If you are flexible on makers, might check out a Toyota Sienna too. Sometimes they seem to deal more on those than Ody's.
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