What caught my eye was the "big" jump in problems reported by Lexus owners. The number last year was under 100, now it's 126. That may signify a trend, and not a good one.
So the worst brand anywhere for residuals is in the lower 30s, Toyota is at 46, and Honda is at what? 57 or so? I'm not sure if Toyota really wants to go there. They very much need to lay off the incentives. But it may be that the Tundra is disproportionately represented here, since it dropped so much. I always thought that the mega-wads of cash they were laying on the hoods of Tundras to launch the new model was a big mistake.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
A good friend of mine has one and he loves it just as much today as when he bought it. It has been infinitiely more reliable than both of his GMC Sierra that he had before which based on the JDP survey is not surprising given that GMC falls below the Industry avg. Even worse, this guy was a service manager for a Buick/Pontiac/GMC dealer and could get his previous trucks repaired for free, and yet he defected to Toyota.
Anyways, residuals are taking a hit, but at least Toyo can move some inventory. Plus, the Tundra was kinda pricey compared to the competition so they're probably selling right around the same now after incentives.
What are Honda's residuals these days? I would think they're closer to 46 than 57%. And there's no question the Tundra and the big SUVs are driving down Toyota' residuals.
I think ALL of the Detroit makes are under 40 now, so both Toyota and Honda are doing relatively well in this worst of times (since 1982 anyway).
But ol' JD doesn't distinguish between, say, a transmission failure vs. the "failure" of a cupholder to hold a Big Gulp. That's why I put more weight in Consumer Reports or the new kid on the block, TrueDelta.
Seriously though, how can Jaguar be tied for #1? How can Buick also be #1 when presumably similar cars from GM (Chevy, Pontiac, Saturn, and GMC) are below the industry average? Or for that matter, Scion is near the bottom while Toyota and Lexus are near the top? It defies logic.
Music to your ears I bet. I'd like to know what's behind the data -- that is, why the increase? One thing though is that both the IS and GS were redesigned for '06, and first-year cars usually have more problems, however defined. There were no new Buicks for 2006. Still...Jaguar?
Even with JD's new precautions like avoiding the Hummer funny business where people were reporting bad gas mileage as a "problem" (as if), I also wonder if the Lexus increase could be due to nit-picks like audio quality, which wouldn't make a difference to a tin ear like me.
Actually the Tundra CC has the quickest turnaround time (of any pickup) on dealer lots as of February.
....Plus, the Tundra was kinda pricey compared to the competition so they're probably selling right around the same now after incentives.
Well, you kind of explained your own statement there, didn't you? ;-)
Tundras are depreciating so fast that they are jumping off lots faster than any other Toyota model. That doesn't make it a good thing for folks who bought or are buying Tundras new.
Last Honda number I saw was 57% for 3-year residuals, but that was a while ago certainly. Someone should look up what it is now.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I feel sorry for people who get a car with problems no matter the brand. It's stereotyping some cars as beyond problems that I find simple-minded. But most people are realistic enough to know that most brands have some problems that creep in, sometimes because of redesigns and cost-cutting which all car companies have done.
I just looked up the xA, and wind noise was one of the top five complaints for that model, so clearly the study has a way to go to reporting only things I am interested in.
Indeed, the relevance of today's JDP news has sorta dimmed in my eyes with that knowledge. But it is certainly a well-regarded survey, so there will be impacts on Toyota and Lexus as a result of it, I'm sure.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Actually I think the 'days of sales' measurement here is a little inaccurate, here's why. When the CHTF last fall Toyota closed the Tundra plants for the end of 2008. They made no Tundras and let we the retailers work off the inventory that had suddenly ballooned.
The actual sales rate plummetted as everyone knows so in the Fall 08 the 'days of sales' metric was horrendous; huge inventory and low sales rate. But there was no replacement stock coming our way because Toyota shut down the plants. Thus as the Winter came and went the available stock shrunk and shrunk and shrunk. Now with a very very reduced inventory divided by a reduced sales rate the 'days of sales' metric looks good actually.
It's not good for the country and for Toyota because absolute sales are way down but the metric looks good in print. What it does reflect is how quickly and how well Toyota reacts to a disaster. But in the meanwhile the SA plant sits with only a very small volume going through it.
Large international corporations like Toyota and Honda have huge treasury and financial departments watching thing like exchange rates and the like. They take positions to cover their various inter-currency transactions; e.g. exports from Japan to the US.
When the JY went south of 90 apparently headed for 80 it reflected a 20-25% reduction in 'reportable revenue'. Such currency coverages are often done 90-180 days in advance of the need for such exchange. Thus in Mar/Apr of 08 they would have been covering their exports for 4th Qtr 08. In 4th Qtr last year when the JY was strongest and the US$ weakest they would have been covering their expected exports for mid 2009.
Since that time the exchangerate has recovered to the 98 JY/$ level seeming to head back toward 100/1.
But when they had to cover their mid 2009 needs at 85-88 JY/$ and the prospects for the NA market were dimmest it appears that they decided to pull the plug on shipments here with only a few exceptions. For the balance of 2009 it appears that shipments of 4Runners, Yaris', Scions and some Lexus models will be very limited. L Cruisers and LX570s are very small volumes so they don't have a lot of effect. The Prius may be in a special position simply becuase the NA market is the largest for the Prius. If the recent Honda price announcement on the Insight II is any indication ( $19800 ) I'd expect a $1500 increase on the Gen 3 Prius as well. But it will come stateside whereas some other vehicles may not come this direction at all. In recent announcements the Prius product team and management are still looking at 100,000 units of the Gen 3s to be sold here,
However for the 2nd half of 2009 if the exchange rate recoves to 100/1 then I'd expect most exports to resume but at reduced levels as reflected in the market.
Maybe a very slight "impact", but considering where the other "Japanese" makers are in this survey (all below Toyota), so I would doubt it. But, knowing Toyota, they will be working very hard to get Lexus back to #1.
It's stereotyping some cars as beyond problems that I find simple-minded.
No stereotyping on my part; I just don't trust JD Powers the way you don't trust Consumer Reports. That makes us even, no?
And nippononly makes a good point about ole JD, where wind noise is one of the most common complaints about the Scion xA. Such a monumental problem -- why it might strand me in the middle of nowhere!
One more thought: Would you put your hard-earned money on a Jaguar? After all, JD says it tied with Buick for top honors. I wouldn't touch Jag with a 10-foot-pole.
Also, it looks like the VDS tracks vehicles in their third year of ownership exclusively. The VDS doesn't take into account the entire three years, only year #3. So if the car had a ton of problems in years 1 and 2, and none in year 3, it would score very well on the VDS.
You all really should invest $5 dollars to join Consumer Reports and look at reliability history. Consumer Reports is a NOT FOR PROFIT company. Also Scotty, that is a 2005 article. For more recent recalls look at http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=144390 This is a recall where your new car may not start or go into park while driving. GM is dead. Face it. Wouldn't your rather have a BMW, Acura, F-150?
I actually really respect the subjectivity of their long term reviews and performance reviews. The video of the 370z vs Mustang was very interesting and fair. Though I like the Mustang better, I feel that the comparison was fair.
the Yaris line will get a hybrid now, but there STILL won't be one for the Corolla line??
They are looking at bringing in the Yaris hybrid in 2011:
Toyota plans Yaris-based hybrid
March 25, 2009 - 10:51 am ET
TOKYO -- The green car race between Toyota and Honda is heating up.
Toyota Motor Corp. plans a new small hybrid car to take on the Insight, the inexpensive Honda hybrid that just reached the United States.
The small gasoline-electric car being planned will be a low-priced spinoff of the Toyota Yaris, said Akihiko Otsuka, chief engineer of the redesigned, third-generation Toyota Prius.
"We are developing a low-priced hybrid vehicle like Honda's Insight," Otsuka said. "We are going to compete by expanding our hybrid-vehicle lineup to smaller hybrids, in the class of the Vitz [sold in Japan] and Yaris." He did not say when the small hybrid would debut, but it could arrive as early as 2011, according to Japan's Nikkei business newspaper.
It also mentions that Toyota is getting into the Li-Ion battery production biz, so that it doesn't have to rely on Panasonic for its battery packs in the future as it does now. Good idea, Toyota.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Toyota to slash new Prius price to match Honda Insight
Toyota Motor Corp. is going for the jugular with its redesigned Prius, setting a 2.05 million yen starting price ($20,750) in Japan that is on par with the newly released Honda Insight.
Toyota notified Japanese dealers of the cutthroat pricing policy for its redesigned 1.8-liter gasoline-electric hybrid on March 25, dealers in Japan say.
Toyota has not yet officially announced pricing and declined to comment.
The move stokes a high-stakes price war between the Prius and the Honda Insight, which went on sale in the United States in March starting at $20,470, including delivery. The third-generation Prius goes on sale next month and had been expected to start around $24,000.
Aggressive U.S. pricing likely
Bringing the starting price down to Insight levels will steal Honda's thunder as purveyor of world's first affordable hybrid vehicle. Toyota's pricing strategy for the Prius in the United States is still unclear. But if Japan is any guide, it will be very aggressive.
Honda's big idea with the Insight was to undercut Prius pricing to steal a lot of its thunder. Now Toyota will meet them head on. The questions that come to my mind are (1) is this wise - it must cut out a lot of Toyota's profits on this model, and (2) what about all the existing Prius owners? There go all the CPO sales, with the new model selling for thousands less than used models, and there goes a solid chunk of resale value for Prius owners.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Well you know the story of the Vancouver BC cabby who put more than a quarter million miles on his, with no problem with the battery pack, right? At that point I believe Toyota bought it back from him to study it, or something like that. His was the same generation as the '02 the poster is asking about.
If word of the new Prius price gets around, Prius sales will fall to zero until the new model is readily available.....
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
That's pretty amazing. If they do that over here they may well kill the Insight. I like the idea of the Insight but it's best feature is the price. If Prius matches it I don't see why you'd buy the Honda - and this comes from a guy with a serious Honda bias.
2015 Mazda 6 Grand Touring, 2014 Mazda 3 Sport Hatchback, 1999 Mazda Miata 2004 Toyota Camry LE, 1999.
It is definitely some serious miles but it seems to be that the battery may be the longest lasting part of the hybrid vehicles.
Recent article that in SF taxi owners had to turn in their Escape hybrids at 300,000 miles by law ( all taxis have to be retired at that time ) with no battery failures at all.
Ya know what's even more shocking??? Resales values.. A friend who purchased his 2004 Prius from me in Jan 04 has a new 2010 on order for May. When his 2010 arrives he will be breaking 240,000 miles - no issues. It's still pluggin away ( ewwww ) at 47 mpg day in and day out. We looked up the values of his Prius here at Edmunds and in the Black Book....are you ready... $7700 as a trade-in and over $9000 if he sold it in the paper!!!! The vehicle was $27500-ish when new.
110,000 miles in 41 mo's here on my own. I'm going to hold it to 250,000 mi just to break his local record.
I do have to question if anyone, either dealer or private party, in their right mind would pay $7700 for a 240K Prius. I think that would be a hard sell.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
The Tundra came into the market as pickup truck sales began their precipitous slide -- a slide that continues in dramatic fashion in 2009 with Toyota losing money on every one. The truck is built at a new plant in San Antonio that came in over budget and has not been running at full capacity
You have to onder how conservative Toyota's most conservative estimate for Tundra sales was. They had to at least be CONSIDERING the possibility that Tundra would sell no better after the total revamp. And in fact, it mostly hasn't. But it's also not much lower now in sales than it was in the last year's of the previous model, is it?
Toyota executives are also faced with what to do with a plant it has under construction in Mississippi. It originally was going to build the Toyota Highlander, until SUVs fell out of American favor, and then it was set to assemble the Toyota Prius hybrid, but hybrid sales have been soft with low gas prices.
In the case of both Mississippi and San Antonio, it seems to me Toyota would be better off finishing what it started, then moving production to the States of all the models (like RAV4 and Yaris) that it currently produces in Japan and which are subject to the losses inherent in the terrible yen exchange rate.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Agree on this also. It gives good balance to their various production sites. However the rate of JY / US$ has almost completely rebounded from its slide to the high 80's. The rate is back up over 100 : 1 today. That's only about 7% lower than where it's been over the last 15 years. Exports are not such a penalty as they were. .
The Bank of Japan is now also in the business of printing funny money.
However plans still remain NOT to export to the US for most products made in Japan. The 2010 Prius is an exception. Volumes are going to be WAY WAY down beginning in the June / July period through the end of the year.
I'd bet they are being a little pessimistic, because that way they will look better if the actual numbers are better. It's a common thing that many companies do.
There's also the legal issue as a public company. Investors and owners have to be kept abreast of serious issues facing any public company. A public company can't hide any significant news or foreseen trends, whether good or bad.
Toyota won't build the small, ultramodern A-BAT hybrid pickup concept that was a head-turner at the 2008 Detroit auto show and looked like a good bet for production.
"We have a lot of top priorities, and A-BAT is not one of them right now," Bob Carter, Toyota Division's general manager, told the Web site PickupTrucks.com.
....."I personally love the truck, its styling, the fact that it's a hybrid," Carter told PickupTrucks.com.
Pickup sales have been battered by declines in construction and housing. Sales of Toyota's two pickups have plummeted. The Tacoma was down 37.3 percent to 24,937 in the first quarter. The full-sized Tundra was off 55.0 percent to 18,349.
Carter told PickupTrucks.com that Toyota remains committed to the Tundra. "I'm absolutely positive the full-sized-truck market will recover," he said.
Gee whiz, maybe if they could be the first ones to market with an honest-to-goodness 30 mpg small pickup, truck sales would be a lot LESS in the toilet. This is a shame. The Tacoma has gotten too big for its britches. The ABAT would have returned a competitive compact pickup to the market.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I see no practical use for a truck like that. It is so ugly what contractor would consider being seen in it. Toyota needs to bring the Hi-Lux diesel back to the USA. It is capable of 45 MPG and would tow a heck of a lot more than any POC hybrid PU. I see Toyota in the same light that GM is now in. It is not responding well to the market. Living off of past glory.
gagrice, you are a big truck guy with big truck thoughts.
For ABAT, think pizza delivery, think college kids who have to move in and out of dorms and have a cheap durable ride in between. That sort of thing.
SOMEBODY needs to put a compact pickup back on the market, now that the only one left is the soon-to-die (and about time) Ranger. If it isn't Toyota, it will be the Koreans, and why cede that corner of the market to them?
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
for '10 is NOT quite going to compete head to head with Insight, as speculated last week:
The redesigned 2010 Prius hybrid goes on sale in late May at a base price of $22,750, including freight. Later this year, a stripped-down base model will go on sale for $21,750, including shipping.
I wonder what gets stripped out for the base model? My money would go on the power driver's seat as the first item to get stripped. Perhaps the alloys also, in favor of steelies with "premium" wheel covers straight off the Yaris?! :-P
Seems kind of dumb to have a "stripper" Prius trim, it will still cost more than $1000 more than the Insight LX, and the Prius is expected by customers to be content-rich.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
"The cost is still above the Insight, which starts at just $19,800, but the Prius does offer superior fuel-economy with 51/48 mpg (city/highway) compared to the Insight at 40/43 mpg. The Prius is also roomier as it is technically classified as a mid-sized vehicle as compared to the Insight, which is a compact."
If I was in the market for a hybrid (I'm not), I'd gladly pay an extra $1,000 for more room and much better mpg. I'd have to calculate the payback, but the $1,000 could probably be made up in 100,000 miles even at the current cheap fuel price of $2.25 per gallon. Not to mention the size difference, which is really important to me, and easily worth the extra $1,000.
Just my thoughts, another way to look at it :shades:
The other question now becomes, will they sell ONE SINGLE ADDITIONAL 2009 Prius now that they have announced that the new model will cost less, improve interior space, and make higher mileage? If I were looking today, I'm sure I would wait a month until the new model came out, wouldn't you??
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Yes the remaining 09s will be a hard sell but IMO Toyota has the inventory situation under control. The 10s will not come gushing in, that's simply impossible with a new ramp-up vehicle. The various pipelines need to be filled with the new models so I'd estimate that until mid summer there just won't be very many 10s available.
There is a huge pent up demand from current owners for the new model so IMO from the commentary on PC the first ones arriving will be 'gone in 60 seconds' to coin a phrase. :shades:
We're the biggest by far in our area in terms of hybrid sales and we've only got about 20 units remaining of the 09s. The really big ones in CA likely have more but then they have more buyers also.
with Toyota reporting sales off 39 percent last month it is hard to believe there are tons of pent up desire for new anything out there. Sounds more like wishful thinking. Year to date cars sales are off 34 percent and trucks sales are off 40 percent for Toyota. From what I hear on some of the blogs it doesn't look all that bright for the whole year. http://www.hybridcarblog.com/2008/12/how-far-will-hybrid-sales-decline-in.html
While knowing the future is impossible I'm gathering impressions from the discussions here, from preorders we already have along with buyers inquiring today about the 10's.
Also the 10's will be lower in price than the 09s, except for the top trimlines.
Sales are definitely going to be down for all of 2009. There is no question about that. But excess inventory will not be part of the problem IMO, or at least not in our market.
'War room' monitors wobbly suppliers as bankruptcy fears rise
April 27, 2009 - 12:01 am ET
Toyota Motor Corp.'s North American auto plants are warehousing key parts to safeguard against supply chain interruptions caused by supplier failures.
The company is ordering more parts than it needs in order to build reserves that would allow it to continue assembling vehicles in the event of an interruption.
It is also looking for duplicate sources of some parts in cases where it feels particularly vulnerable, said Steve St. Angelo, senior vice president of Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America Inc. and president of the company's large assembly complex in Georgetown, Ky.
"Our biggest risk is our suppliers," St. Angelo said. "I can't ship a Camry or an Avalon if it's missing even one part."
The moves violate Toyota's vaunted "just in time" production philosophy, which views warehousing as a symbol of muda, or waste and inefficiency.
But Toyota now faces a worse problem than inefficiency: It fears that a bankruptcy by one of the Detroit 3 could set off a chain reaction of U.S. business failures that would shut down Toyota's own North American system.
Since opening its first U.S. assembly plant in 1984, Toyota has become deeply rooted in the U.S. landscape. Although it continues to do business with a cadre of Japanese parts companies in which it holds a small ownership stake, Toyota has expanded its supplier network.
More than half of Toyota's 500 U.S. parts suppliers also do business with General Motors, St. Angelo said. And some of them are struggling.
On March 11, Jim Lentz, president of Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A., said Toyota has "real concerns" about 20 to 30 of its U.S. suppliers for fear that they could shut down Toyota production.
This of course is one of the scenarios that was mentioned as part of the scare tactics a few months ago when Chrysler and GM first threatened bankruptcy. If Toyota is able to stockpile some parts from the doomed suppliers, I wonder how long it will be able to continue production without an alternate supplier in place. Which also prompts the query: I wonder how long it takes to get an alternate supplier in place.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
"...if we get an encore performance of last summer's gas prices, those excess '09 Pruises will sell like hotcakes."
You think so? And who will be buying them? Or better yet what banks will be making auto loans? The difference between this summer and last summer is the economy. Housing is still in the tank; unemployment is higher than it was last summer. Car sales are lower than last summer and people are simply not spending on new cars. Used car sales are up and the Koreans seem to be doing OK because they have less expensive entry level cars.. Hybrid sales have tanked in California at least, looking at the chart I posted you will see that at least in my home state the Prius sales are more than flat they are in the minus column. And with summer fast approaching what person will not wait till after the summer to get a better deal on a 2010 if it is a better car for less money?
Here is a difference between last summer and this summer. Gas is lower than the “experts” predicted. We even heard people in these forums say, “we will never see $2.00 gas again last summer. They have plenty of left over hybrids sitting on the lots because gas came crashing down. People have simply started driving less and fuel usage in the US is down despite lower fuel prices. Not likely usage will increase this summer either. Even with production cuts demand isn’t going up.
The economy is still in free fall and the bail outs to the banks have simply allowed big banks to buy smaller banks. Loans for homes or cars are at 25 percent of what they were last summer. New car sales are off by close 40 or 50 percent of even last summer. Used car sales seem to be doing better.
So for the stock piled Prius’ or Prii to sell like hot cakes: 1. The economy has to recover. 2. The banks have to free up the money. 3. The housing market has to improve. 4. People have to feel secure about their jobs. 5. People have to start going back into the show rooms. 6. Unemployment has to improve. 7. Gas prices have to climb back to $4.00 or better. a. if that happens number 1, 4, and 6 are doubtful 8. It all has to happen before August or September and the 2010s are announced and prices published.
If fuel prices go back up you might as well stick a fork in the economy because it will be done. Economic recovery will be set back by years. People will spend any extra money they have on food and housing before they get a new car. Even more so because of the job market.
However if all the other positive steps take place I would care if it got like last summer. :sick:
All of what you said about the general market conditions is fairly accurate ( Toyota has it's own source of financing and while it's not the cheapest it is lending. In addition Credit Unions have stepped in now as banks have pulled back ).
But without buyers all makers will suffer across the board.
Regarding the 09s there just aren't that many of them left...60 or 90 Days of Sales is my guess until the figures are published next week. Toyota doesn't do the D3 thing and continue production of the outgoing model as the new one debuts. It also doesn't overship at the end of a year or at the end of a model's life in order to puff up sales. Whatever 09s are on the ground now are it...finito. Toyota stopped making them several months ago.
8. It all has to happen before August or September and the 2010s are announced and prices published.
?? The first 10's are being loaded on vessels as we speak to arrive here mid to late May. The pricing was announced on the 21st, last week.
Comments
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
link title
A good friend of mine has one and he loves it just as much today as when he bought it. It has been infinitiely more reliable than both of his GMC Sierra that he had before which based on the JDP survey is not surprising given that GMC falls below the Industry avg. Even worse, this guy was a service manager for a Buick/Pontiac/GMC dealer and could get his previous trucks repaired for free, and yet he defected to Toyota.
Anyways, residuals are taking a hit, but at least Toyo can move some inventory. Plus, the Tundra was kinda pricey compared to the competition so they're probably selling right around the same now after incentives.
I think ALL of the Detroit makes are under 40 now, so both Toyota and Honda are doing relatively well in this worst of times (since 1982 anyway).
Seriously though, how can Jaguar be tied for #1? How can Buick also be #1 when presumably similar cars from GM (Chevy, Pontiac, Saturn, and GMC) are below the industry average? Or for that matter, Scion is near the bottom while Toyota and Lexus are near the top? It defies logic.
The JD Power blurb that just came out lists the top 5 complaints that owners have in each segment and lots of it isn't minor stuff like cupholders.
2009 Vehicle Dependability Study Results (JD Power)
That's a 35.4% increase! That's meaningful. That's beyond normal variation.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Even with JD's new precautions like avoiding the Hummer funny business where people were reporting bad gas mileage as a "problem" (as if), I also wonder if the Lexus increase could be due to nit-picks like audio quality, which wouldn't make a difference to a tin ear like me.
....Plus, the Tundra was kinda pricey compared to the competition so they're probably selling right around the same now after incentives.
Well, you kind of explained your own statement there, didn't you? ;-)
Tundras are depreciating so fast that they are jumping off lots faster than any other Toyota model. That doesn't make it a good thing for folks who bought or are buying Tundras new.
Last Honda number I saw was 57% for 3-year residuals, but that was a while ago certainly. Someone should look up what it is now.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
I feel sorry for people who get a car with problems no matter the brand. It's stereotyping some cars as beyond problems that I find simple-minded. But most people are realistic enough to know that most brands have some problems that creep in, sometimes because of redesigns and cost-cutting which all car companies have done.
2014 Malibu 2LT, 2015 Cruze 2LT,
Indeed, the relevance of today's JDP news has sorta dimmed in my eyes with that knowledge. But it is certainly a well-regarded survey, so there will be impacts on Toyota and Lexus as a result of it, I'm sure.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
The actual sales rate plummetted as everyone knows so in the Fall 08 the 'days of sales' metric was horrendous; huge inventory and low sales rate. But there was no replacement stock coming our way because Toyota shut down the plants. Thus as the Winter came and went the available stock shrunk and shrunk and shrunk. Now with a very very reduced inventory divided by a reduced sales rate the 'days of sales' metric looks good actually.
It's not good for the country and for Toyota because absolute sales are way down but the metric looks good in print. What it does reflect is how quickly and how well Toyota reacts to a disaster. But in the meanwhile the SA plant sits with only a very small volume going through it.
When the JY went south of 90 apparently headed for 80 it reflected a 20-25% reduction in 'reportable revenue'. Such currency coverages are often done 90-180 days in advance of the need for such exchange. Thus in Mar/Apr of 08 they would have been covering their exports for 4th Qtr 08. In 4th Qtr last year when the JY was strongest and the US$ weakest they would have been covering their expected exports for mid 2009.
Since that time the exchangerate has recovered to the 98 JY/$ level seeming to head back toward 100/1.
But when they had to cover their mid 2009 needs at 85-88 JY/$ and the prospects for the NA market were dimmest it appears that they decided to pull the plug on shipments here with only a few exceptions. For the balance of 2009 it appears that shipments of 4Runners, Yaris', Scions and some Lexus models will be very limited. L Cruisers and LX570s are very small volumes so they don't have a lot of effect. The Prius may be in a special position simply becuase the NA market is the largest for the Prius. If the recent Honda price announcement on the Insight II is any indication ( $19800 ) I'd expect a $1500 increase on the Gen 3 Prius as well. But it will come stateside whereas some other vehicles may not come this direction at all. In recent announcements the Prius product team and management are still looking at 100,000 units of the Gen 3s to be sold here,
However for the 2nd half of 2009 if the exchange rate recoves to 100/1 then I'd expect most exports to resume but at reduced levels as reflected in the market.
No stereotyping on my part; I just don't trust JD Powers the way you don't trust Consumer Reports. That makes us even, no?
And nippononly makes a good point about ole JD, where wind noise is one of the most common complaints about the Scion xA. Such a monumental problem -- why it might strand me in the middle of nowhere!
One more thought: Would you put your hard-earned money on a Jaguar? After all, JD says it tied with Buick for top honors. I wouldn't touch Jag with a 10-foot-pole.
Check out Comments: Consumer Reports/JD Power Rankings too.
Also Scotty, that is a 2005 article. For more recent recalls look at
http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=144390
This is a recall where your new car may not start or go into park while driving.
GM is dead. Face it. Wouldn't your rather have a BMW, Acura, F-150?
They are looking at bringing in the Yaris hybrid in 2011:
Toyota plans Yaris-based hybrid
March 25, 2009 - 10:51 am ET
TOKYO -- The green car race between Toyota and Honda is heating up.
Toyota Motor Corp. plans a new small hybrid car to take on the Insight, the inexpensive Honda hybrid that just reached the United States.
The small gasoline-electric car being planned will be a low-priced spinoff of the Toyota Yaris, said Akihiko Otsuka, chief engineer of the redesigned, third-generation Toyota Prius.
"We are developing a low-priced hybrid vehicle like Honda's Insight," Otsuka said. "We are going to compete by expanding our hybrid-vehicle lineup to smaller hybrids, in the class of the Vitz [sold in Japan] and Yaris." He did not say when the small hybrid would debut, but it could arrive as early as 2011, according to Japan's Nikkei business newspaper.
http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090325/ANA02/903259986/1186-
(registration link)
It also mentions that Toyota is getting into the Li-Ion battery production biz, so that it doesn't have to rely on Panasonic for its battery packs in the future as it does now. Good idea, Toyota.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Toyota to slash new Prius price to match Honda Insight
Toyota Motor Corp. is going for the jugular with its redesigned Prius, setting a 2.05 million yen starting price ($20,750) in Japan that is on par with the newly released Honda Insight.
Toyota notified Japanese dealers of the cutthroat pricing policy for its redesigned 1.8-liter gasoline-electric hybrid on March 25, dealers in Japan say.
Toyota has not yet officially announced pricing and declined to comment.
The move stokes a high-stakes price war between the Prius and the Honda Insight, which went on sale in the United States in March starting at $20,470, including delivery. The third-generation Prius goes on sale next month and had been expected to start around $24,000.
Aggressive U.S. pricing likely
Bringing the starting price down to Insight levels will steal Honda's thunder as purveyor of world's first affordable hybrid vehicle. Toyota's pricing strategy for the Prius in the United States is still unclear. But if Japan is any guide, it will be very aggressive.
http://townhall-talk.edmunds.com/direct/view/.efda853/2606
(registration link)
Honda's big idea with the Insight was to undercut Prius pricing to steal a lot of its thunder. Now Toyota will meet them head on. The questions that come to my mind are (1) is this wise - it must cut out a lot of Toyota's profits on this model, and (2) what about all the existing Prius owners? There go all the CPO sales, with the new model selling for thousands less than used models, and there goes a solid chunk of resale value for Prius owners.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Unless you just bought a Prius perhaps.
Did you notice the Edmunds Answer question in the sidebar btw?
On a 2002 Prius with 176000 miles, what can I reasonably expect from the battery life at this point?
That's some serious miles.
If word of the new Prius price gets around, Prius sales will fall to zero until the new model is readily available.....
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Recent article that in SF taxi owners had to turn in their Escape hybrids at 300,000 miles by law ( all taxis have to be retired at that time ) with no battery failures at all.
Ya know what's even more shocking??? Resales values..
A friend who purchased his 2004 Prius from me in Jan 04 has a new 2010 on order for May. When his 2010 arrives he will be breaking 240,000 miles - no issues. It's still pluggin away ( ewwww ) at 47 mpg day in and day out. We looked up the values of his Prius here at Edmunds and in the Black Book....are you ready... $7700 as a trade-in and over $9000 if he sold it in the paper!!!! The vehicle was $27500-ish when new.
110,000 miles in 41 mo's here on my own. I'm going to hold it to 250,000 mi just to break his local record.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Not looking good for Tupelo.
The Tundra came into the market as pickup truck sales began their precipitous slide -- a slide that continues in dramatic fashion in 2009 with Toyota losing money on every one. The truck is built at a new plant in San Antonio that came in over budget and has not been running at full capacity
You have to onder how conservative Toyota's most conservative estimate for Tundra sales was. They had to at least be CONSIDERING the possibility that Tundra would sell no better after the total revamp. And in fact, it mostly hasn't. But it's also not much lower now in sales than it was in the last year's of the previous model, is it?
Toyota executives are also faced with what to do with a plant it has under construction in Mississippi. It originally was going to build the Toyota Highlander, until SUVs fell out of American favor, and then it was set to assemble the Toyota Prius hybrid, but hybrid sales have been soft with low gas prices.
In the case of both Mississippi and San Antonio, it seems to me Toyota would be better off finishing what it started, then moving production to the States of all the models (like RAV4 and Yaris) that it currently produces in Japan and which are subject to the losses inherent in the terrible yen exchange rate.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
The Bank of Japan is now also in the business of printing funny money.
However plans still remain NOT to export to the US for most products made in Japan. The 2010 Prius is an exception. Volumes are going to be WAY WAY down beginning in the June / July period through the end of the year.
Toyota May Report Operating Loss for Second Year (AutoObserver)
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
Toyota won't build the small, ultramodern A-BAT hybrid pickup concept that was a head-turner at the 2008 Detroit auto show and looked like a good bet for production.
"We have a lot of top priorities, and A-BAT is not one of them right now," Bob Carter, Toyota Division's general manager, told the Web site PickupTrucks.com.
....."I personally love the truck, its styling, the fact that it's a hybrid," Carter told PickupTrucks.com.
Pickup sales have been battered by declines in construction and housing. Sales of Toyota's two pickups have plummeted. The Tacoma was down 37.3 percent to 24,937 in the first quarter. The full-sized Tundra was off 55.0 percent to 18,349.
Carter told PickupTrucks.com that Toyota remains committed to the Tundra. "I'm absolutely positive the full-sized-truck market will recover," he said.
http://www.autoweek.com/article/20090420/CARNEWS/904209990
Gee whiz, maybe if they could be the first ones to market with an honest-to-goodness 30 mpg small pickup, truck sales would be a lot LESS in the toilet. This is a shame. The Tacoma has gotten too big for its britches. The ABAT would have returned a competitive compact pickup to the market.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
For ABAT, think pizza delivery, think college kids who have to move in and out of dorms and have a cheap durable ride in between. That sort of thing.
SOMEBODY needs to put a compact pickup back on the market, now that the only one left is the soon-to-die (and about time) Ranger. If it isn't Toyota, it will be the Koreans, and why cede that corner of the market to them?
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
The redesigned 2010 Prius hybrid goes on sale in late May at a base price of $22,750, including freight. Later this year, a stripped-down base model will go on sale for $21,750, including shipping.
http://www.autoweek.com/article/20090421/CARNEWS/904219991
I wonder what gets stripped out for the base model? My money would go on the power driver's seat as the first item to get stripped. Perhaps the alloys also, in favor of steelies with "premium" wheel covers straight off the Yaris?! :-P
Seems kind of dumb to have a "stripper" Prius trim, it will still cost more than $1000 more than the Insight LX, and the Prius is expected by customers to be content-rich.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
If I was in the market for a hybrid (I'm not), I'd gladly pay an extra $1,000 for more room and much better mpg. I'd have to calculate the payback, but the $1,000 could probably be made up in 100,000 miles even at the current cheap fuel price of $2.25 per gallon. Not to mention the size difference, which is really important to me, and easily worth the extra $1,000.
Just my thoughts, another way to look at it :shades:
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
There is a huge pent up demand from current owners for the new model so IMO from the commentary on PC the first ones arriving will be 'gone in 60 seconds' to coin a phrase. :shades:
We're the biggest by far in our area in terms of hybrid sales and we've only got about 20 units remaining of the 09s. The really big ones in CA likely have more but then they have more buyers also.
http://www.hybridcarblog.com/2008/12/how-far-will-hybrid-sales-decline-in.html
It also might be harder to sell a Hybrid Prius in California with a 10 percent sales tax added. I would bet the entry level Korean cars will do better considering you don't have to add more than 2k out the door in tax.
But don't look to California to help increase hybrid sales.
http://www.hybridcars.com/hybrid-sales-dashboard/march-2009-dashboard-did-hybrid- -sales-bottom-out-25712.html
In case we want a pro hybrid site?
http://www.thegreenmotorist.com/index.php/march-2009-hybrid-sales-figures/
"The Toyota Prius is the best-selling hybrid in the United States but the vehicle’s sales were down 55% when compared to March 2008."
You wouldn't be giving us a positive salesperson's spin would you?
Also the 10's will be lower in price than the 09s, except for the top trimlines.
Sales are definitely going to be down for all of 2009. There is no question about that. But excess inventory will not be part of the problem IMO, or at least not in our market.
'War room' monitors wobbly suppliers as bankruptcy fears rise
April 27, 2009 - 12:01 am ET
Toyota Motor Corp.'s North American auto plants are warehousing key parts to safeguard against supply chain interruptions caused by supplier failures.
The company is ordering more parts than it needs in order to build reserves that would allow it to continue assembling vehicles in the event of an interruption.
It is also looking for duplicate sources of some parts in cases where it feels particularly vulnerable, said Steve St. Angelo, senior vice president of Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America Inc. and president of the company's large assembly complex in Georgetown, Ky.
"Our biggest risk is our suppliers," St. Angelo said. "I can't ship a Camry or an Avalon if it's missing even one part."
The moves violate Toyota's vaunted "just in time" production philosophy, which views warehousing as a symbol of muda, or waste and inefficiency.
But Toyota now faces a worse problem than inefficiency: It fears that a bankruptcy by one of the Detroit 3 could set off a chain reaction of U.S. business failures that would shut down Toyota's own North American system.
Since opening its first U.S. assembly plant in 1984, Toyota has become deeply rooted in the U.S. landscape. Although it continues to do business with a cadre of Japanese parts companies in which it holds a small ownership stake, Toyota has expanded its supplier network.
More than half of Toyota's 500 U.S. parts suppliers also do business with General Motors, St. Angelo said. And some of them are struggling.
On March 11, Jim Lentz, president of Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A., said Toyota has "real concerns" about 20 to 30 of its U.S. suppliers for fear that they could shut down Toyota production.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20090427/ANA03/304279965/1176
(registration link)
This of course is one of the scenarios that was mentioned as part of the scare tactics a few months ago when Chrysler and GM first threatened bankruptcy. If Toyota is able to stockpile some parts from the doomed suppliers, I wonder how long it will be able to continue production without an alternate supplier in place. Which also prompts the query: I wonder how long it takes to get an alternate supplier in place.
2014 Mini Cooper (stick shift of course), 2016 Camry hybrid, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (keeping the stick alive)
You think so? And who will be buying them? Or better yet what banks will be making auto loans? The difference between this summer and last summer is the economy. Housing is still in the tank; unemployment is higher than it was last summer. Car sales are lower than last summer and people are simply not spending on new cars. Used car sales are up and the Koreans seem to be doing OK because they have less expensive entry level cars.. Hybrid sales have tanked in California at least, looking at the chart I posted you will see that at least in my home state the Prius sales are more than flat they are in the minus column. And with summer fast approaching what person will not wait till after the summer to get a better deal on a 2010 if it is a better car for less money?
Here is a difference between last summer and this summer. Gas is lower than the “experts” predicted. We even heard people in these forums say, “we will never see $2.00 gas again last summer. They have plenty of left over hybrids sitting on the lots because gas came crashing down. People have simply started driving less and fuel usage in the US is down despite lower fuel prices. Not likely usage will increase this summer either. Even with production cuts demand isn’t going up.
The economy is still in free fall and the bail outs to the banks have simply allowed big banks to buy smaller banks. Loans for homes or cars are at 25 percent of what they were last summer. New car sales are off by close 40 or 50 percent of even last summer. Used car sales seem to be doing better.
So for the stock piled Prius’ or Prii to sell like hot cakes:
1. The economy has to recover.
2. The banks have to free up the money.
3. The housing market has to improve.
4. People have to feel secure about their jobs.
5. People have to start going back into the show rooms.
6. Unemployment has to improve.
7. Gas prices have to climb back to $4.00 or better.
a. if that happens number 1, 4, and 6 are doubtful
8. It all has to happen before August or September and the 2010s are announced and prices published.
If fuel prices go back up you might as well stick a fork in the economy because it will be done. Economic recovery will be set back by years. People will spend any extra money they have on food and housing before they get a new car. Even more so because of the job market.
However if all the other positive steps take place I would care if it got like last summer. :sick:
But without buyers all makers will suffer across the board.
Regarding the 09s there just aren't that many of them left...60 or 90 Days of Sales is my guess until the figures are published next week. Toyota doesn't do the D3 thing and continue production of the outgoing model as the new one debuts. It also doesn't overship at the end of a year or at the end of a model's life in order to puff up sales. Whatever 09s are on the ground now are it...finito. Toyota stopped making them several months ago.
8. It all has to happen before August or September and the 2010s are announced and prices published.
??
The first 10's are being loaded on vessels as we speak to arrive here mid to late May. The pricing was announced on the 21st, last week.